转型期矿业乡村综合效能评价及障碍诊断

针对转型期矿业乡村背景的特殊性，引入"综合效能"理念，采用调查统计、超效率DEA（Data Envelopment Analysis）模型、Malmquist指数和障碍因子法，分析了北京门头沟区妙峰山镇2010－2020年乡村综合效能的动态变化及其障碍因素。结果表明：1）2010－2020年，妙峰山镇综合效能水平呈增长趋势，乡村综合效能空间分异明显，综合效能水平整体偏低，呈南北高、中间低的分布格局。高值区主要集中在涧沟村、上苇甸村、陇驾庄村等，低值区主要分布在丁家滩村、大沟村、南庄村等，这些地区均是产业转型过程中首要关注的重点乡村。2）妙峰山镇综合效能全要素生产率呈增长趋势，技术进步贡献作用不显著。超过50%的乡村综合效能全要素生产率呈改善趋势，仅有47.06%的乡村在综合效能提升过程中存在技术进步现象，纯技术效率变化指数差异不大且波动较小，超过二分之一的乡村的纯技术效率呈下降趋势，大部分乡村的技术效率及规模效率变化大于1。3）妙峰山镇综合效能的障碍因子由早期乡村基础设施建设的限制转为矿业乡村企业转型投入等问题。各乡村综合效能的障碍因子具有明显的区域相似性和空间异质性，矿业企业转型及生态修复投入资金量、矿业用地转型面积比例、人均文化设施面积、矿区废弃地利用水平是限制乡村综合效能的主要障碍因素。研究揭示了转型期矿业乡村综合效能的分布格局及障碍因子，为制定差别化的综合效能提升策略提供依据。     

基于RUSLE模型的黑龙江省2000-2010年土壤保持量评价

黑龙江省是我国重要的粮食产区,同时也是东北地区重点生态保护区,黑龙江省土壤保持量的研究对维持生态安全与可持续发展有重要作用。基于黑龙江省2000年、2005年和2010年的降雨、土壤、高程等数据,结合GIS空间分析方法,运用修订的通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE),估算了2000—2010年黑龙江省土壤保持量,并对其空间分布及变化趋势进行模拟分析。结果表明:2000—2010年,黑龙江省土壤保持能力整体增强,土壤保持量增加了5.34%,且除牡丹江和哈尔滨地区外,各行政区的土壤保持量均有所增加;各土地利用类型的年均单位面积土壤保持量以森林最多,为3 384.36 t·km-2·a-1,裸地最少,为177.17 t·km-2·a-1,10年来除农田和灌丛外,各土地利用类型的单位面积土壤保持能力均增强;2000—2010年黑龙江省高等级土壤保持量比例及低等级转化成高等级土壤保持量的面积都在提高,黑龙江省土壤保持能力10年来趋于好转。     

Nutrition and the burden of disease in New Zealand: 1997-2011

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of disease due to selected nutrition-related risk factors (high total blood cholesterol, high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index (BMI) and inadequate vegetable and fruit intake) in 1997, as well as the burden that could potentially be avoided in 2011 if small, favourable changes in the current risk factor distribution were to occur. DESIGN: Data on risk factor levels, disease burden and risk associations were combined using comparative risk assessment methodology, a systematic approach to estimating both attributable and avoidable burden of disease. Disease outcomes assessed varied according to risk factor and included ischaemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus and selected cancers. SETTING: New Zealand. RESULTS: Approximately 4500 deaths (17% of all deaths) in 1997 were attributable to high cholesterol, 3500 (13%) to high blood pressure, 3000 (11%) to high BMI and 1500 (6%) to inadequate vegetable and fruit intake. Taking prevalence overlap into account, these risk factors were estimated jointly to contribute to approximately 11 000 (40%) deaths annually in New Zealand. Approximately 300 deaths due to each risk factor could potentially be avoided in 2011 if modest changes were made to each risk factor distribution. CONCLUSIONS: High cholesterol, blood pressure and BMI, as well as inadequate vegetable and fruit intake, are major modifiable causes of death in New Zealand. Small changes in the population distribution of these risk factors could have a major impact on population health within a decade.     

2000-2010年塔里木河流域气候特征及其变化趋势

[目的]分析塔里木河流域气候特征及其变化趋势,为该流域后续治理及生态经济发展提供科学指导.[方法]利用塔里木河流域44个气象监测站的气象要素观测资料,采用Excel和SPSS 11.0软件进行气象数据分析,利用ArcMap 10.0和Surfer 8.0软件进行制图,对该流域2000-2010年的气候特征及其变化趋势进行分析和研究.[结果]塔里木河流域气候条件极其恶劣,气候类型受地貌类型和地形条件制约,以干旱和极干旱气候为主,分别占流域总面积的73.16％和15.97％;年均气温、年日照时数、年降水量和年蒸发量以夏季最高,年均相对湿度以秋冬季较高,大风主要发生在春季和夏季;各气象要素的空间分布特征受到地形地貌特征的影响,基本遵循以塔里木盆地为中心,向外围逐渐发生变化的总体规律.[结论]近10a来,塔里木河流域的年均气温、年降雨量、年日照时数及年平均风速呈上升趋势,而年均相对湿度、年蒸发量则呈下降趋势.     

Diabetes and hypertension increases in a society with abdominal obesity: results of the Mexican National Health Survey 2000

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalences of overweight, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) in the Mexican population and compare them with those of a previous Mexican urban survey and an American survey. DESIGN: A structured, randomised, nationally representative Mexican sample was compared with a 1993 Mexican urban survey and the US Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) of non-Hispanic Whites. SETTING: The Mexican National Health Survey 2000.Subjects: Subjects were 12,856 men and 28,332 women, aged 20-69 years, who had their body weight, height, waist circumference (WC), blood pressure and fasting capillary blood glucose measured. RESULTS: Mexican adult men and women had a high prevalence of overweight (41.3 and 36.3%, respectively) and obesity (19.4 and 29.0%, respectively), similar to those in the USA in 1988-1992 and exceeding those of the 1993 Mexican survey. The prevalence of HT was 33.3% in men and 25.6% in women, with inferred DM rates of 5.6 and 9.7%, respectively. Abdominal obesity affected 46.3% of men (WC>or=94 cm) and 81.4% of women (WC>or=80 cm). There was a high prevalence of abdominal obesity in normal-weight women, with co-morbidities relating better to WC than to body mass index (BMI) in both sexes. Rates of DM and HT exceeded US rates on a comparable BMI or WC basis in adults aged <50 years. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity in Mexicans is associated with markedly increased prevalences of DM and HT to levels comparable with, or even higher than, those in NHANES III of non-Hispanic Whites.     

Wildfowl population trends in Mexico, 1961-2000: a basis for conservation planning

We analysed population trends of 24 wildfowl species in Mexico. Wildfowl numbers peaked during the early 1980s; lowest counts were recorded in 1997. Total wildfowl numbers (all species combined) and duck numbers (duck species combined) showed significant short-term (1981-2000) declines, while geese (goose species combined) showed a significant long-term (1961-2000) increase. Six wildfowl species suffered significant long-term declines, while four showed increases. During 1981-2000, 11 species declined, but none had significant increases. Redhead (Aythya americana), Mexican duck (Anas diazi), northern pintail (A. acuta) and black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) should be given high conservation priority because of the high proportions of their North American populations in Mexico. Declining numbers of the later two species should trigger further investigation into the possibility of assigning them legal protection status. Other species with apparent declines in numbers should also be more closely monitored. For setting hunting limits in the country, the population status of each species should be accounted for, as well as the condition of breeding populations the previous spring. Other species with poor data or combined counts should be targeted for basic population studies. We suggest that the mid-winter counts be expanded to cover non-surveyed areas and conducted every year to more precisely detect wildfowl population change. Integrated to a site-selection analysis, the information presented here can provide the basis for a wildfowl conservation strategy in Mexico.     

Priority areas for the conservation of coastal marine vertebrates in Chile

In the past decade, there has been growing concern about the rapid degradation of marine ecosystems due to anthropogenic causes. Consequently, identifying priority areas for the conservation of marine biodiversity has become a crucial conservation issue. Taking into account the influence of human population density, we performed complementarity analyses to identify priority areas for the conservation of all coastal marine vertebrate species in Chile (265 species), and evaluated congruence among the different target groups. The distribution ranges of all species were digitized in a geographic information system and analyses were performed on latitudinal bands of 0.5°. Our results show that 12 latitudinal bands (∼16% of all latitudinal bands) are necessary to conserve at least one population of each species. Ten of these bands are irreplaceable, whereas two are flexible. Many of the irreplaceable sites lie within areas that have high human population density. In order to conserve all threatened and endemic species, six and three latitudinal bands are needed, respectively. Four latitudinal bands are needed to represent all species of fish, reptiles, and mammals, whereas nine bands are needed to protect all bird species. Taking flexible sites into account, reserve networks that meet the minimum representation goal for each taxonomic group, and for threatened and endemic species, represent subsets of the 12 latitudinal band network selected for all species. Spatial congruence among reserve networks selected for each target group was relatively low and only significantly higher than random in 9 out of 21 pairwise comparisons. However, with the exception of reptiles, conservation areas selected for different surrogate groups represented other groups relatively well, compared to randomly selected sites.     

1980-2015年中国农田生态系统的N素平衡

Surface nitrogen （N） balances for China＇s crop production systems was estimated using statistical data collected from 1980 to 2004 at the national and provincial scale and from 1994 to 1999 at the county level. There was a surplus N balance throughout these periods, but the surplus was nearly stable in recent years. Projections using nonseasonal Box-Jenkins model or exponential models show that the N surplus for the total cultivated land in China was likely to increase from 142.8 kg ha^-1 in 2004 to 168.6 kg ha 1 in 2015. The N balance surplus in the more developed southeastern provinces was the largest, and was slightly less in the central region, which caused the nitrate pollution in the ground water. The N surplus was much less in the western and northern provinces because of lower synthetic fertilizer inputs. The region with high N risk includes Beijing Municipality and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shandong provinces for 2002-2004. The projections suggested that 15 provinces （or municipalities） in the middle and southeastern part of China except Jiangxi and Shanxi provinces would become the high-risk region by 2015. The level of economic development, transportation, and labor force condition had an important effect on the N balance surplus at the county level, but the last two factors showed remarkable impact at the provincial level. To decrease the nonpoint pollution （Npp） risk from crop production, the authors suggested to reduce the target level for national grain self-sufficiency to 90%-95% and change the regional structure of grain production by moving some of the future grain production from the high Npp risk areas of eastern China to parts of the central and western provinces where the Npp risk was much less.     

HJ-1卫星延寿期的CCD影像质量评价与可用性分析

HJ-1卫星发射升空投入运行以来,已在灾害与环境的快速监测与预报领域发挥了重要作用。HJ-1卫星目前已经成功运行3a多,属于超期服役状态。为了评价延寿期影像质量,该文从影像的几何校正精度、灰度特征和纹理特征3个方面对延寿期HJ-1A-CCD影像进行分析,并与正常寿命运行期的HJ-1ACCD影像、同时期的Landsat7 ETM+影像进行比较,分析结果表明:延寿期HJ-1A-CCD影像质量虽然有一定程度的下降,但其与正常寿命期影像质量接近,仍能较好地描述丰富的地物类型及地物细节信息,可以像正常寿命期影像一样,有效地用于环境监测、灾害监测、国土资源管理、城市规划、农业应用等方面。     

1970-2030年精细农业耕作体系下全球和区域性氮素的表面平衡研究

Global nitrogen (N) budgets for intensive agricultural systems were compiled for a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. These budgets include N inputs (N fertilizer, animal manure, biological N fixation and atmospheric N deposition) and outputs (N removal from the field in harvested crops and grass and grass consumption by grazing animals, ammonia volatilization, denitrification and leaching). Data for the historical years 1970 and 1995 and a projection for 2030 were used to study changes in the recovery of N and the different loss terms for intensive agricultural systems. The results indicated that the overall system N recovery and fertilizer use efficiency slowly increased in the industrialized countries between 1970 and 1995, the values for developing countries have decreased in the same period. For the coming three decades our results indicated a rapid increase in both the industrialized and developing countries. High values of > 80% for fertilizer use efficiency may be related to surface N balance deficits, implying a depletion of soil N and loss of soil fertility. The projected intensification in most developing countries would cause a gradual shift from deficits to surpluses in the coming decades. The projected fast growth of crop and livestock production, and intensification and associated increase in fertilizer inputs would cause a major increase in the surface N balance surplus in the coming three decades. This implied increasing losses of N compounds to air (ammonia, nitrous oxide and nitric oxide), and groundwater and surface water (nitrate).     

东北林草交错区植被NDVI时空特征及其与气候因子关系分析

利用2000—2010年MODIS NDVI数据集和同期气象数据集,分别从时间序列和空间格局上分析了东北林草交错区及其3个生态子区(典型草原区、森林区和森林草原区)植被NDVI变化特征及其对气温、降水的年际和年内响应关系。结果表明:(1)多年月均NDVI年内变化曲线表现为单峰型;多年季均NDVI夏季最高;逐年NDVI总体波动上升;(2)多年植被NDVI空间差异显著,总体呈现东高西低、由东向西递减的特征,其中,森林区平均NDVI最高,典型草原区平均增加速率最大;(3)在年际关系上,全区、典型草原区、森林区、森林草原区植被NDVI的主要气候影响因子分别为气温、降水、气温、降水;(4)在年内关系上,植被NDVI与降水呈显著线性关系,与气温呈显著指数关系;在生长季,典型草原区对气温和降水均有时滞响应,且对降水的响应更高,森林草原区对降水具有时滞响应。     

Social psychology predictors for the adoption of soil conservation measures in Central Chile

With low adoption rates of soil conservation measures (SCM) widespread, we examine determinants of current and potential future adoption in the ‘Secano Costero’ region of Central Chile. Randomly selected farmers (N = 140) spent an equivalent of 48 000 CLP/year (∼79 US$) on SCM. Contingent valuation of a hypothesized soil conservation programme revealed a willingness‐to‐pay of 30 610 CLP/year (∼50·4 US$) for future adoption. Social‐psychology variables from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT; response efficacy, perceived barriers) were used to predict current and potential future adoption. Current spending on SCM is influenced by perceptions of (1) erosion problem severity, (2) response efficacy of SCM, (3) farming problems and (4) barriers (lack of labour and draught animals). In addition, farm size and education were significant predictors. Willingness‐to‐pay for future adoption of SCM is influenced by farmer perception of (1) response efficacy of SCM, and (2) community support to the programme as well as farm size, age and gender. Our results suggest that formal psychometric scale development for social‐psychology predictors for the adoption of SCM, e.g. based on PMT, is a promising avenue for the analysis of soil conservation decisions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2000-2014年黄土高原植被叶面积指数时空变化特征

研究植被叶面积指数(LAI)时空变化特征,对植被的水土保持效具有重要意义.利用MOD15A2H遥感产品,基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验与Sen斜率分析方法,提取区域尺度与像素尺度上的植被LAI变化特征,并基于不同子流域、坡度、坡向及植被覆盖类型,对植被LAI的变化特征进行分析.基于MOD44B遥感产品,利用线性回归和偏相关系数,分析植被LAI的变化原因.结果表明:1)黄土高原2000-2014年,植被LAI呈显著增加趋势,其年绝对变化幅度为0.042,年相对变化程度为2.71％.2)空间上,在黄土高原58.6％的区域,LAI呈现显著增加趋势,仅有0.9％的区域LAI呈现显著减少趋势.植被LAI剧烈增加,主要发生在河口—龙门区间,包括皇甫川、窟野河、无定河和延河.植被在15°～35°的坡度上,LAI变化程度最剧烈,其变化在各坡向上没有显著差异,农田和草地的LAI变化程度最剧烈.3)与植被总覆盖度相比,植被垂直维结构与黄土高原植被LAI的变化更为相关,其中树木覆盖度的增加,是植被垂直维结构变化的重要原因之一.     

Referees for the European Journal of Soil Science in 2000

Below is a list of scientists who reviewed papers submitted for publication in the Journal in 2000 and some in 1999. The scientific standard of the Journal relies heavily on the expertise and dedication of its referees, and the editors thank them most sincerely for their help and advice.     

Lower fumonisin mycotoxin levels in the grain of Bt corn grown in the United States in 2000-2002

Fumonisins were monitored in corn grain collected from Bt hybrids grown in 107 locations across the United States in 2000-2002. Bt corn hybrids contain the Cry1Ab protein from Bacillus thuringiensis that controls European corn borers and other stalk-boring pests. Fumonisin levels were frequently lower in grain from Bt hybrids grown in field trials under conditions of natural (FACT trials) or manual insect infestation (university trials). Over three years of FACT trials, there were 126/210 comparisons when fumonisin levels in grain from control hybrids were >2 ppm, exceeding U.S. FDA guidance levels of 2 ppm for human food. Grain from Bt hybrids was at or below 2 ppm of fumonisins for 58 of the 126 comparisons. The use of Bt hybrids can increase the percentage of corn grain that would be suitable for use in food and feed.