An empirical model of total solar irradiance variation between 1874 and 1988

An empirical model of variations in the total solar irradiance caused by observed changes in photospheric magnetic activity between 1874 and 1988 is presented. The model provides a remarkably good representation of the irradiance variations observed by satellite-borne radiometers between 1980 and 1988. It suggests that the mean total irradiance has been rising steadily since about 1945, with the largest peak so far at about 1980 and another large peak expected during the current solar cycle 22. But it is doubtful whether even this rise can contribute significantly to global warming, unless the temperature increase of about 0.02 degrees C that it produces in current energy balance models seriously underestimates the sensitivity of climate to solar irradiance changes.     

Observed ozone response to variations in solar ultraviolet radiation

During the winter of 1979, the solar ultraviolet irradiance varied with a period of 13.5 days and an amplitude of 1 percent. The zonal mean ozone values in the tropics varied with the solar irradiance, with an amplitude of 0.25 to 0.60 percent. This observation agrees with earlier calculations, although the response may be overestimated. These results imply changes in ozone at an altitude of 48 kilometers of up to 12 percent over an 11-year solar cycle. Interpretation of ozone changes in the upper stratosphere will require measurements of solar ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths near 200 nanometers.     

A model of solar luminosity modulation by magnetic activity between 1954 and 1984

A simple model based on the changes in excess radiation from bright magnetic faculae and on changes in reduced radiation from dark spots is remarkably successful in matching the slow variations of total solar irradiance measured simultaneously by the ERB and ACRIM satellite radiometers between 1981 and 1984. This model was extended back to 1954 to reconstruct the modulation of irradiance by magnetic activity during the past three 11-year solar cycles. The model predicts that the sun is consistently brighter at activity maximum than at minimum. The 0.07 percent brightening at the peak of the last cycle in 1980 was more pronounced than the brightenings found for either of the two previous cycles, even though cycle 19, which peaked around 1957, had the largest sunspot number amplitude in the history of reliable sunspot records.     

Spectrum line intensity as a surrogate for solar irradiance variations

Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) solar constant measurements from 1980 to 1986 are compared with ground-based, irradiance spectrophotometry of selected Fraunhofer lines. Both data sets were identically sampled and smoothed with an 85-day running mean, and the ACRIM total solar irradiance (S) values were corrected for sunspot blocking (S(c)). The strength of the mid-photospheric manganese 539.4-nanometer line tracks almost perfectly with ACRIM S(e), Other spectral features formed high in the photosphere and chromosphere also track well. These comparisons independently confirm the variability in the ACRIM S(e), signal, indicate that the source of irradiance is faculae, and indicate that ACRIM S(e), follows the 11-year activity cycle.     

Ozone and temperature trends associated with the 11-year solar cycle

Evidence is presented which suggests that trends in the ozone concentration and stratospheric temperature, reported between the early 1960's and 1976, are to a large extent due to solar ultraviolet flux variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle. Radiative-convective-photochemical simulations of ozone and temperature variations have been made with a solar ultraviolet flux variability model. Results for temperatures and ozone concentrations, when compared with published data, show good agreement.     

The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate

A general circulation model that simulated changes in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone was used to investigate the response of the atmosphere to the 11-year solar activity cycle. At solar maximum, a warming of the summer stratosphere was found to strengthen easterly winds, which penetrated into the equatorial upper troposphere, causing poleward shifts in the positions of the subtropical westerly jets, broadening of the tropical Hadley circulations, and poleward shifts of the storm tracks. These effects are similar to, although generally smaller in magnitude than, those observed in nature. A simulation in which only solar irradiance was changed showed a much weaker response.     

Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate

Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.     

Long-term brightness variations of neptune and the solar cycle modulation of its albedo

The visual brightness and albedo of Neptune vary periodically during the 11-year solar cycle with an amplitude of 4%, anticorrelated with the variation of solar ultraviolet output. A seasonal trend in color suggests that Neptune, like Uranus, may have a slightly reddened pole.     

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.     

Stellar Activity and Brightness Variations: A Glimpse at the Sun's History

Radiometric measurements during the past decade from the Solar Maximum Mission and Nimbus 7 satellites have shown that the total solar irradiance varies in step with the sun's 11-year magnetic activity cycle. Stellar observations from the Lowell and Mount Wilson observatories now confirm and elaborate this discovery. These measurements show that older stars similar to the sun tend to become brighter as their magnetic activity level increases, just as the sun does during its 11-year activity cycle. Younger stars, however, tend to become fainter as their magnetic activity level increases. This contrasting behavior suggests that the balance between the competing phenomena that influence solar brightness variability has shifted during the sun's lifetime.     

Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance

The sun's total irradiance decreased from 1980 to mid-1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and has recently begun to increase. This time interval covered the decrease in solar activity from the maximum of solar cycle 21 to solar minimum and the onset of cycle 22. The sun's ultraviolet irradiance also decreased during the descending phase of cycle 21 and, like the total irradiance, is now increasing concurrently with the increase in cycle 22 activity. Although only 1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this radiation from 1 July 1981 to 30 June 1985 accounted for 19 percent of the decrease in the total irradiance over the same period.     

Astronomy and solar physics: measurement of the solar spectral irradiance from 200 to 3000 nanometers

The solar spectrum experiment on Spacelab 1 measured 98 percent of the sun's total energy output. It improved the absolute accuracy of solar irradiance data, especially in the ultraviolet and infrared regions. In order to detect any variation in the spectrum on future shuttle flights, the data were obtained in a radiation scale that can be preserved with high precision over many years. The instrument performance and preliminary data reduction are described.     

Dynamic variations at the base of the solar convection zone

We have detected changes in the rotation of the sun near the base of its convective envelope, including a prominent variation with a period of 1.3 years at low latitudes. Such helioseismic probing of the deep solar interior has been enabled by nearly continuous observation of its oscillation modes with two complementary experiments. Inversion of the global-mode frequency splittings reveals that the largest temporal changes in the angular velocity Omega are of the order of 6 nanohertz and occur above and below the tachocline that separates the sun's differentially rotating convection zone (outer 30% by radius) from the nearly uniformly rotating deeper radiative interior beneath. Such changes are most pronounced near the equator and at high latitudes and are a substantial fraction of the average 30-nanohertz difference in Omega with radius across the tachocline at the equator. The results indicate variations of rotation close to the presumed site of the solar dynamo, which may generate the 22-year cycles of magnetic activity.     

Observations of solar irradiance variability

High-precision measurements of total solar irradiance, made by the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor on the Solar Maximum Mission satellite, show the irradiance to have been variable throughout the first 153 days of observations. The corrected data resolve orbit-to-orbit variations with uncertainties as small as 0.001 percent. Irradiance fluctuations are typical of a band-limited noise spectrum with high-frequency cutoff near 0.15 day(-1) their amplitudes about the mean value of 1368.31 watts per square meter approach +/- 0.05 percent. Two large decreases in irrradiance of up to 0.2 percent lasting about 1 week are highly correlated with the development of sunspot groups. The magnitude and time scale of the irradiance variability suggest that considerable energy storage occurs within the convection zone in solar active regions.     

A 2000-year tree ring record of annual temperatures in the sierra nevada mountains

Tree ring data have been used to reconstruct the mean late-season (June through January) temperature at a timberline site in the Sierra Nevada, California, for each of the past 2000 years. Long-term trends in the temperature reconstruction are indicative of a 125-year periodicity that may be linked to solar activity as reflected in radiocarbon and auroral records. The results indicate that both the warm intervals during the Medieval Warm Epoch ( approximately A.D. 800 to 1200) and the cold intervals during the Little Ice Age ( approximately A.D. 1200 to 1900) are closely associated with the 125-year period. Significant changes in the phase of the 125-year temperature variation occur at the onset and termination of the most recent radiocarbon triplet and may indicate chaotic solar behavior.     

From dimming to brightening: decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth's surface

Variations in solar radiation incident at Earth's surface profoundly affect the human and terrestrial environment. A decline in solar radiation at land surfaces has become apparent in many observational records up to 1990, a phenomenon known as global dimming. Newly available surface observations from 1990 to the present, primarily from the Northern Hemisphere, show that the dimming did not persist into the 1990s. Instead, a widespread brightening has been observed since the late 1980s. This reversal is reconcilable with changes in cloudiness and atmospheric transmission and may substantially affect surface climate, the hydrological cycle, glaciers, and ecosystems.     

Astronomy and solar physics: solar irradiance observations

The absolute radiometer on Spacelab 1 was used to obtain solar irradiance observations from space. A number of effects must be taken into account in the data reduction. A provisional value was obtained for the mean solar constant during the observation period (6 to 8 December 1983).     

The fajada butte solar marker: a reevaluation

Evaluation of the Fajada Butte solar marker in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, on the basis of its ethnographic context and usefulness for confirmatory and anticipatory solar observations indicates that the site does not function as an accurate solar calendar (accurate in the context of the historic Puebloan culture). The site most likely served as a sun shrine rather than as a calendrical observing station. The interpretation of the site as marking the northern declinations of the lunar 18.6-year cycle is not supported by the ethnographic evidence nor can the site be used to anticipate accurately the year of the standstill.     

Helioseismic measurement of solar torsional oscillations

Bands of slower and faster rotation, the so-called torsional oscillations, are observed at the Sun's surface to migrate in latitude over the 11-year solar cycle. Here, we report on the temporal variations of the Sun's internal rotation from solar p-mode frequencies obtained over nearly 6 years by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite. The entire solar convective envelope appears to be involved in the torsional oscillations, with phase propagating poleward and equatorward from midlatitudes at all depths throughout the convective envelope.     

Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic

High-resolution analyses of lake sediment from southwestern Alaska reveal cyclic variations in climate and ecosystems during the Holocene. These variations occurred with periodicities similar to those of solar activity and appear to be coherent with time series of the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be as well as North Atlantic drift ice. Our results imply that small variations in solar irradiance induced pronounced cyclic changes in northern high-latitude environments. They also provide evidence that centennial-scale shifts in the Holocene climate were similar between the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, possibly because of Sun-ocean-climate linkages.