Regional population growth rate differences: note

"This note investigates regional population growth in the U.S. for 1959-84, taking into account four city sizes and three time periods. It is found that the growth is largest in city size (0.5-1.0) million and (1.0-2.0) million. Over time, the growth is largest in the less urbanized regions." The note aims to supplement the findings of Daniel Garnick and is based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.     

Urban growth and the transformation of rural China: the case of Southern Manchuria

Since the economic reforms launched at the end of the 1970s, China has experienced dramatic socioeconomic change which has led to the emergence of new and distinctive regions of economic interaction characterised by an extensive and intensive mix of agricultural and non-agricultural activities. This paper illustrates the nature and characteristics of these evolving Extended Metropolitan Regions (EMRs) by drawing on the experience of the Shenyang-Dalian urban corridor in Northeast China (Manchuria). The increased level of economic interaction between the cities and the countryside is characterised by accelerated labour and capital flows, rapidly expanding rural-urban commodity trade and subcontracting between urban and rural enterprises. The result is a rapid erosion of differences in the standard of living, economic function and life style between the city and the countryside.     

Geographic perspectives on elderly population growth

"The proportion of a region's population that is elderly may change over time for many different reasons. The proportion may grow because of the net in-migration of elderly individuals, or it may grow because of the net out-migration of nonelderly residents. Furthermore, the proportion may grow if the number of nonmovers in the 'pre-elderly' cohort is relatively high. This paper discusses in detail the ways in which this proportion may change over time. This is complemented by a state-level empirical study of elderly population growth in the United States during the late 1980s. The spatial pattern of the rate of new entry into the elderly cohort among nonmovers is found to be particularly influential in determining changes in the proportion of a state's population that is elderly."     

Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union

This paper studies the population growth dynamics in European NUTS3 regions over the period of 2000–2015 and offers generalizable evidence on the main drivers of population change at this sub‐level of analysis, which is so far rather unexplored. Results obtained by means of a spatial Durbin model highlight the roles of economic and demographic regional conditions in shaping population dynamics and the minor role of geography and environmental conditions. The fact that geographical polarization of population is occurring, which might result in an increase in regional imbalances, calls for policy actions in mitigating this phenomenon.     

Independent and linked migrants: determinants of African American interstate migration

Through kinship and other links to destinations, many African American interstate migrants in the United States join other people in destination households. These “linked” migrants contrast to “independent migrants” who move as individuals or intact groups and set up their own households at the destination. Using U.S. Census Public Use Micro Sample data, this paper first shows that, in the 1985-90 period, about 45 percent of all Black interstate migrants were independent, compared to 38 percent who were linked to housing at the destination and 17 percent who moved into group quarters. Second, a multinomial logit model, incorporating individual and state-level variables, is specified that contrasts the determinants of independent and linked migration. Tests show that independent migration can be modeled with classic migration determinants, including individual educational and occupational resources, labor market conditions at the destination, and public goods at the destination including the level of welfare payments. Linked migration, on the other hand, is much less responsive to these factors, and not at all responsive to destination unemployment and welfare levels. Separate tests of male and female models suggest a great contrast between independent and linked migration for females. It is concluded that the understanding of Black migration must take into account a variety of factors beyond traditional labor market conditions, including links to the destination and individual housing circumstances.     

The relationship between population growth and real assessed market values: note

Various indices are commonly used to measure growth or decline in communities and regions, but this article suggests another measure which is fairly easy to obtain--the change over time in real assessed market values. Computer storage and analysis of real estate assessment and sales data make it possible to determine accurate true assessment ratios which can be used to calculate reasonable estimates of market values. This article shows the relationship between population growth from 1970 to 1980 and the changes in real assessed market values of various property classes for over 400 Pennsylvania townships. This can provide insight into the kind and nature of community change. The most noteworthy aspect of these data, not apparent in conventional growth measures, is the magnitude of increases of residential property values in all growth categories, but particularly in the high growth townships. This kind of data could be calculated by countries or by regions; this might be more informative and useful to planners and researchers in such form. Comparing local data to regional, community, or state landmark data can help identify strengths and weaknesses or the particular nature of a community's growth.     

Genetic association of yield with its component traits in a recombinant inbred line population of cotton

Lint yield of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is determined by its component traits, boll number, boll weight, and lint percentage. Selecting high yielding lines is based on the ability to manipulate component traits. In this study, 188 recombinant inbred lines and two parental lines were grown in 1999 and 2000 at Mississippi State University. Lint yield and its three component traits were measured and analyzed by an extended conditional mixed linear model approach. Boll number unit-area^–1 made the largest contribution to genotypic and genotype × environment (G × E) variations for lint yield. Both boll number and lint percentage, and boll number and boll weight jointly accounted for more than 70% of the genotypic and G × E variations in lint yield. Ninety-nine percent of the genetic and phenotypic variation in lint yield could be explained by the three component traits, indicating that lint yield was mainly dependent on its three component traits. Small phenotypic variation in lint yield could be accounted for by effects of genotype, G × E interactions of boll number or boll number combined with other component trait(s) (Table 5). For boll number unit-area^–1 a wider distribution of genotypic contribution effects was detected than for lint percentage and boll weight in this study. Boll number and boll weight interacted to affect lint yield, indicating that balanced selection for boll weight and boll number is needed in high-yielding line development. Comparative results with other approaches were also discussed in this study.The U.S. Governments right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged     

Modelling the predation,growth and population dynamics of fish within a spatially-resolved shelf-sea ecosystem model

The development and analysis of a fish population module within the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is described. Fixed predation rates on ERSEM zooplankton and zoobenthos, which may be used in place of this dynamic module of fish, are described also. The dynamic module is age-structured, with state variables for the number of individuals and their weight, the latter partitioned into structural (skeletal, essentially) and remobilizable ‘reserve’ components. It is capable of prediction of observed patterns of both positive and negative changes in individual weight. The fish are modelled as one population for the whole North Sea, superimposed on the ERSEM box structure. Parameters have been derived from the literature where possible and, for herring, certain parameters have been adjusted to match independent estimates of growth in the field. Preliminary results show that herring growth rate depends inversely on biomass, when changes in the latter are caused by altered fishing mortality. The magnitude of these effects is in agreement with historical data for herring in the North Sea. The model is discussed in relation to previous attempts to model fish population dynamics, particularly in the North Sea.     

Local geographies of globalisation: rural agglomeration in the Chinese countryside

China’s rural enterprises were responsible for 48 per cent of the $US 151 billion in exports and absorbed nearly 20 per cent of total foreign direct investment in 1996. Clearly, the significant and increasing role of rural enterprises in China’s integration with the world economy demands attention. The penetration of global capital into the rural enterprise sector and the desire of such enterprises to benefit from expansion into international markets have important implications at the local level. The impact of international, domestic and local forces on institutional and structural reforms is reflected in particular spatial outcomes in rapidly developing non‐urban regions. Local authorities have responded to external forces in ways which do not conform to the conventional expectations. Evidence from the lower Yangtze (Yangzi) delta reveals how the supposedly universalising pressures of globalisation have been mediated and adapted at the local level, particularly in terms of enterprise location and the proliferation of special zones. Expanding on the desakota hypothesis, the notion of rural agglomeration is introduced to capture the paradox of spatial economic transformation as it was linked to local circumstances, and localised responses to external pressures of globalisation.     

Regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends in annual growth rates of total personal income and population: 1959-1987

"The annual growth rates of total personal income and population in regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas [of the United States] are examined for the period 1959-87, partitioned into sub periods. Statistical testing for equality of rates shows no perceptible differences in growth rates between the major categories, metro and nonmetro. Further, this study uses a model similar in scope to shift-share analysis to test for convergence of the growth rates within these categories. It was found that for both regional nonmetro and metro areas, there was a general trend toward convergence with the exception of the 1970s decade. In that decade total population growth rates in the nonmetro areas and total income and total population growth rates in the metro areas showed significant divergences."     

Slow,small and shared voluntary relocations: Learning from the experience of migrants living on the urban fringes of Khulna,Bangladesh

The paper conceptualises the process of voluntary relocation undertaken by rural farmers to informal settlements in coastal cities. These are journeys that occur without formal institutional support, utilising migrants' own agency. Learning from these community‐driven relocations has merit in rethinking climate change adaptation at the regional level. In this paper we present stories of 17 families who have progressively relocated to the fringes of Khulna city in southwestern Bangladesh. We observe three key attributes: first, relocations are slow, neither singular nor immediately completed, but rather take months of careful back and forth journeys of family members between their places of origin and destination. Second, relocations rely on small networks of relatives and acquaintances at the destination. Third, relocations are built on shared responsibilities distributed among a range of actors in places of origin and destination. We conclude that these slow, small and shared relocations are likely to be realised as forms of ongoing adaptation by rural farmers if their aspirational mobilities, social relations and supports are maintained at a regional scale. This kind of migration as adaptation may bring about just outcomes for those displaced without necessarily promoting rigid planning interventions that tend to fix resettlement solutions in place and time.     

Sustainable urbanization in Southeast Asia and beyond: Challenges of population growth,land use change,and environmental health

As economic growth centres, the Southeast Asian cities feature high population pressure, unsustainable land use, environmental degradation, and large ecological footprints. It is difficult to manage environmental health and basic services for urban dwellers, and ensure optimum flow of ecosystem services in the context of rapid, unplanned, and haphazard urbanization. These challenges are particularly multifaceted in the developing countries of Southeast Asian region. This study, based on secondary sources, adopted multidisciplinary lenses, such as geographical information systems, socio‐economic perspective, and sustainability science to examine the population situation, land use change pattern, and drivers of environmental degradation in the Southeast Asian cities as well as the Dhaka megacity, and brought forth a fresh perspective to look into contemporary urban ecosystems, population dynamics, environmental health, and sustainability. It also focused on identifying the commonalities among the cities under study to create a common understanding towards promoting collaborative urban development. This study shows that the urbanization process in the Southeast Asia region is taking place mostly in an unplanned and haphazard manner. With little concern for nature, life‐supporting ecological systems, and the environment, urban spatial growth continues unabated. The data surveyed and discussed in this paper shows that the current style of urbanization in Southeast Asia can best be called unsustainable. The findings also suggest that the general wellbeing and welfare of the current and future generations in Southeast Asian cities as well as in Dhaka is at risk. The paper recommends concerted efforts towards making the urbanization process sustainable, including better urban planning, policymaking, and international and regional cooperation.     

Remoteness and rural development: economic impacts of rural roads on upland farmers in Sarawak,Malaysia

>Although Sarawak has a rapidly growing economy, the benefits of growth have been focused largely in the urban centres. However, the majority of the population lives in rural areas, where poverty, although on the decline, prevails. Attention is given to the role of rural roads in countering remoteness and, hence, promoting more equitable development. To assess the impact of rural roads, two roads were used for comparison. One provided Iban communities with access to Betong, a small district town. The other provided Bidayuh communities with access to Kuching, the capital city. This paper focuses on three economic impacts of roads – agricultural production, employment, and household income. Findings show that the impact of roads varied within an area (a function of remoteness) and between areas (also a function of remoteness). Impacts were considerably greater when roads provided communities with access to a major urban centre compared with a small town. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the government's strategy of rural development.     

诱致性节育：农村计生新政策

计划生育是我国的基本国策,是实现人口与经济资源可持续发展的必然保证。通过历史回顾和对比分析,我们认为,以高压政策为主的强制性节育,虽然达到了控制农村人口过快增长的目的,但严重地损害党群干群关系;而自发性节育政策,是以农民生育观念改善和较高的社会经济发展水平为前提,在当前中国一时难以产生预想效果,反而引起农民的误解,招致新一轮生育小高峰;所以本文提倡“奖励为主,惩罚为辅”的诱致性节育政策,通过构建具有实际益处的社会保障机制可以更好地逐步引导农民自觉节育,实现人口与经济社会协调发展。     

The importance of population growth, seed dispersal and habitat suitability in determining plant invasiveness

Summary This paper examines the roles of plant demography, seed dispersal ecology and habitat suitability in influencing invasiveness of horticulturally important species. Section one investigates the relative invasiveness of two woody species, Crataegus monogyna and Prunus mahaleb, and concentrates on differences in demographic and dispersal traits. The second section delineates the invasion of two Asparagus spp. and concentrates on differences in seed dispersal ecology. Section three reports the use of a geographical information system analysis to determine whether habitat suitability, seed dispersal or land management is more important in determining threat of invasion by adventive Olea europaea. C. monogyma, P. mahaleb are closely related with similar habits and overlapping home ranges in Europe. Crataegus monogyna is very invasive in northern New South Wales, having spread rapidly and conspicuously throughout the region and elsewhere in southern Australia at rates of 80–120 m yr⁻¹. Prunus mahaleb is far less invasive, being restricted to a small population, which is expanding at 20 m yr⁻¹. Demographic analysis showed that potential growth rates of P. mahaleb (1.713–1.490) are greater than those for C. monogyna (1.138–1.103). Assessment of the seed dispersal ecology of both species revealed that C. monogyna had seeds dispersed by one bird and three mammals over many kilometers. P. mahaleb had seeds dispersed by six birds and four mammals over distances generally < 100 m. The role of humans in introducing both species and the characteristics of seed dispersal are more influential than demography in determining invasiveness. The more invasive Asparagus asparagoides has smaller fruit with a bicoloured display up to 1.5 m above ground. Less invasive A. declinatus has larger, translucent white fruit displayed at heights < 0.5 m above ground. The role of humans has also been important in shaping the course of invasion. Sensitivity analysis confirms that land management practices, which affect Olea europaea seedling establishment and survival, are most important at a landscape scale in determining invasiveness. The main factors determining the difference in invasiveness relate directly to the changing nature of human management of each species and the ecological interactions between the plants and the invaded environment. This research has implications for the prediction and management of biological invasions; emphasizing the importance of seed dispersal and human activities in determining the course of invasions: both of which cannot be readily predicted.     

Investigation into the population growth and its implications for primary schooling in Timor‐Leste by 2020

The nation‐building process of Timor‐Leste, the newest nation in Asia, faces significant demographic challenges due to its high population growth, which is the fastest in Asia. The major contributor for this unprecedented growth is the extremely high total fertility rate of Timor‐Leste, among the highest in the world. It is of great concern that if the current fertility rate and its implied population growth continue the population of Timor‐Leste will double in 17 years. The analysis in this paper clearly shows that the current extremely high dependency ratio will decline only marginally in the next 10 years and this will put tremendous pressure on the government to constantly keep up with the increasing number of children entering school every year. However, as the intrinsic value of human resource development feeds back into the overall society and economy, an adequate public investment in knowledge‐producing services at the earliest stages of life and throughout that life has the potential to change the demographic concern of Timor‐Leste into a future demographic dividend.     

An analysis of employment patterns of domestic migrants and immigrants in a Rustbelt city: A study of Buffalo-Niagara Falls

This study evaluates employment patterns of domestic migrants and immigrants and also explores the role of ethnic niching for Asian and African American recent arrivals in the context of local structural transformation (e.g., the shift from manufacturing to services). Employment patterns are examined for industry-occupation groups using the 5% Public Use Micro Sample of the 2000 U.S. Decennial Census and the 2006–2010 of the American Community Survey. The study area is a Rustbelt city that has suffered from population loss: the Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA. Location quotients and shift-share analysis are used to classify employment shifts into four industry-occupation groups: growing, transforming, declining, and emerging. Logistic regressions are estimated to identify the role of various demographic factors and ethnic niches on the employment of recent arrivals in the above four industry-occupation groups. The results show that the employment of recent arrivals vary by migration status and ethnicity. The role of ethnic niches is especially important in declining industry-occupation groups. The analytical framework can be used to understand where and how migrants, both domestic and immigrants, find work. Future studies can focus on the pros and cons of ethnic niching (e.g., barriers to suitable jobs, ethnic entrepreneurship through niche experience) as structural transformation continues across U.S. regions, especially with new technologies.     

打顶后NAA处理对烟草生长、烟叶中钾和烟碱浓度的影响

在云南省田间连续三年研究了打顶后在茎断面涂抹萘乙酸（NAA）处理对烤烟植株生长、钾素吸收、烟叶中钾和烟碱浓度的影响。结果表明,打顶导致整个烟株中钾素的钾素损失,烟叶中钾浓度下降,烟碱浓度增加。打顶后NAA处理可以增加烟株对钾素的吸收,并促进钾素向叶片中分配,使叶片钾浓度提高;同时降低叶片烟碱浓度。第一次NAA处理两周后用NAA再处理一次虽然可以进一步提高烟叶钾浓度,但使叶片干重稍有下降,且在操作上多一道工序。若开花后不打顶,虽然叶片中钾浓度较高,但大大降低了叶片干物重,严重影响叶片的产量和品质。     

新型农村金融体系与农村信用合作

笔者分析了国外和中国台湾地区农村金融服务体制以及历史文化环境,从各国政府对农村金融的支持逐步从参与金融活动转变为更加重视运用法律手段和经济政策,阐述了中国发展和扶持农村合作金融必要性,勾画了中国新型农村金融服务体系的框架,并结合中国实际就发展农村合作金融提出了对策建议。     

Labour market impacts of the equalisation of basic public health and medical services on internal migrants in China

Using China Migrants Dynamic Survey Project data from 2011 to 2017, this study investigates the labour market impacts of equalisation of basic public health and medical services on internal migrants by the difference-in-differences approach in China. The results reveal that equalisation of basic public health and medical services increases the probability of labour participation and the income of internal migrants. Male migrants, married migrants and migrants who cover long migration distances have a much stronger positive response to the equalisation of basic public health and medical services in terms of likelihood of labour participation and level of income. Mechanism checks indicate that the increases in labour participation and income of internal migrants are enhanced by the improvement of medical service utilisation, human capital and social integration after the implementation of the equalisation of basic public health and medical services.