Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion,Oregon, USA

Context

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought.

Objectives

Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread.

Methods

Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; >?375,000-ha timber inventory following >?78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions.

Results

Historically, fires?>?20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires?>?40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI <?? 4.0); and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. murrayana). In contemporary fires, only 5% of the ecoregion burned in 30 years, and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer. Historically, density of conifers?>?15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on?<?5% of the area compared to 95% currently.

Conclusions

Frequent, large, low-severity fires historically maintained open-canopy ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests in which large fire- and drought-tolerant trees were prevalent. Stand-replacing patches in ponderosa and mixed-conifer were rare, even in fires >?40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Stand-replacing patches within a ‘mixed severity’ fire regime: quantitative characterization using recent fires in a long-established natural fire area

The complexity inherent in variable, or mixed-severity fire regimes makes quantitative characterization of important fire regime attributes (e.g., proportion of landscape burned at different severities, size and distribution of stand-replacing patches) difficult. As a result, there is ambiguity associated with the term ‘mixed-severity’. We address this ambiguity through spatial analysis of two recent wildland fires in upper elevation mixed-conifer forests that occurred in an area with over 30 years of relatively freely-burning natural fires. We take advantage of robust estimates of fire severity and detailed spatial datasets to investigate patterns and controls on stand-replacing patches within these fires. Stand-replacing patches made up 15% of the total burned area between the two fires, which consisted of many small patches (<4 ha) and few large patches (>60 ha). Smaller stand-replacing patches were generally associated with shrub-dominated (Arctostaphylos spp. and Ceanothus spp.) and pine-dominated vegetation types, while larger stand-replacing patches tended to occur in more shade-tolerant, fir-dominated types. Additionally, in shrub-dominated types stand-replacing patches were often constrained to the underlying patch of vegetation, which for the shrub type were smaller across the two fire areas than vegetation patches for all other dominant vegetation types. For white and red fir forest types we found little evidence of vegetation patch constraint on the extent of stand-replacing patches. The patch dynamics we identified can be used to inform management strategies for landscapes in similar forest types.     

Early forest dynamics in stand-replacing fire patches in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

There is considerable concern over the occurrence of stand-replacing fire in forest types historically associated with low- to moderate-severity fire. The concern is largely over whether contemporary levels of stand-replacing fire are outside the historical range of variability, and what natural forest recovery is in these forest types following stand-replacing fire. In this study we quantified shrub characteristics and tree regeneration patterns in stand-replacing patches for five fires in the northern Sierra Nevada. These fires occurred between 1999 and 2008, and our field measurements were conducted in 2010. We analyzed tree regeneration patterns at two scales: patch level, in which field observations and spatial data were aggregated for a given stand-replacing patch, and plot level. Although tree regeneration densities varied considerably across sampled fires, over 50 % of the patches and approximately 80 % all plots had no tree regeneration. The percentage of patches, and to a greater extent plots, without pine regeneration was even higher, 72 and 87 %, respectively. Hardwood regeneration was present on a higher proportion of plots than either the pine or non-pine conifer groups. Shrub cover was generally high, with approximately 60 % of both patches and individual plots exceeding 60 % cover. Patch characteristics (size, perimeter-to-area ratio, distance-to-edge) appeared to have little effect on observed tree regeneration patterns. Conifer regeneration was higher in areas with post-fire management activities (salvage harvesting, planting). Our results indicate that the natural return of pine/mixed-conifer forests is uncertain in many areas affected by stand-replacing fire.     

Re-examining fire severity relations in pre-management era mixed conifer forests: inferences from landscape patterns of forest structure

For some time, ecologists have known that spatial patterns of forest structure reflected disturbance and recovery history, disturbance severity and underlying influences of environmental gradients. In spite of this awareness, historical forest structure has been little used to expand knowledge of historical fire severity. Here, we used forest structure to predict pre-management era fire severity across three biogeoclimatic zones in eastern Washington State, USA, that contained extensive mixed conifer forests. We randomly selected 10% of the subwatersheds in each zone, delineated patch boundaries, and photo-interpreted the vegetation attributes of every patch in each subwatershed using the oldest available stereo-aerial photography. We statistically reconstructed the vegetation of any patch showing evidence of early selective harvesting, and then classified them as to their most recent fire severity. Classification used published percent canopy mortality definitions and a dichotomized procedure that considered the overstory and understory canopy cover and size class attributes of a patch, and the fire tolerance of its cover type. Mixed severity fires were most prevalent, regardless of forest type. The structure of mixed conifer patches, in particular, was formed by a mix of disturbance severities. In moist mixed conifer, stand replacement effects were more widespread in patches than surface fire effects, while in dry mixed conifer, surface fire effects were more widespread by nearly 2:1. However, evidence for low severity fires as the primary influence, or of abundant old park-like patches, was lacking in both the dry and moist mixed conifer forests. The relatively low abundance of old, park-like or similar forest patches, high abundance of young and intermediate-aged patches, and widespread evidence of partial stand and stand-replacing fire suggested that variable fire severity and non-equilibrium patch dynamics were primarily at work.     

Modelling the impact of agricultural abandonment and wildfires on vertebrate diversity in Mediterranean Europe

Agricultural land abandonment, widespread in the Mediterranean, is leading to a recovery of scrubland and forests which are replacing open habitats and increasing wildfire events. Using published data, we modelled the global and regional impact of abandonment and wildfires on 554 species of terrestrial vertebrates occurring in Mediterranean Europe. For all groups except amphibians, open habitats or farmland sustained higher species richness. Open habitats showed regional differences in their conservation value, western areas being particularly important for birds and amphibians and eastern areas for reptiles. Scrublands hosted fewer species than open habitats, farmland and forest, but sustained several endemic birds and mammals. The greater species richness of forests was mostly due to species widespread in Europe. Wildfires promote scrubland expansion in detriment of forest; because more species are associated to eastern forests, fire is predicted to affect more seriously this region. Scrubland conservation value was found to be highest in the west, where fire might have a positive impact. Fire regime, however, plays a crucial role. Although large fires have a negative impact, small-scale fires may favour biodiversity in abandoned areas. Due to the intrinsic difficulty in managing abandoned land to preserve the original Mediterranean vertebrate diversity, the best option to achieve this goal is the development of policies designed to make farmers and traditional farmland survive.     

Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China

Context

Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale.

Objectives

Our objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions.

Methods

We used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions.

Results

The result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime.

Conclusions

Fire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.

     

Effects of landscape patterns of fire severity on regenerating ponderosa pine forests (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus ponderosa</Emphasis>) in New Mexico and Arizona,USA

Much of the current effort to restore southwestern ponderosa pine forests to historical conditions is predicated upon assumptions regarding the catastrophic effects of large fires that are now defining a new fire regime. To determine how spatial characteristics influence the process of ponderosa pine regeneration under this new regime, we mapped the spatial patterns of severity at areas that burned in 1960 (Saddle Mountain, AZ) and (La Mesa, NM) 1977 using pre- and post-fire aerial photography, and quantified characteristics of pine regeneration at sample plots in areas where all trees were killed by the fire event. We used generalized linear models to determine the relationship of ponderosa pine stem density to three spatial burn pattern metrics: (1) distance to nearest edge of lower severity; (2) neighborhood severity, measured at varying spatial scales, and (3) scaled seed dispersal kernel surfaces. Pine regeneration corresponded most closely with particular scales of measurement in both seed dispersal kernel and neighborhood severity. Spatial patterns of burning remained important to understanding regeneration even after consideration of subsequent disturbance and other environmental variables, with the exception of a few cases in which simpler models were equally well-supported by the data. Analysis of tree ages revealed slow progress in early post-fire years. Our observations suggest that populations spread in a moving front, as well as by remotely dispersed individuals. Based on our results, recent large fires cannot be summarily dismissed as catastrophic. We conclude that management should focus on the value and natural recovery of post-fire landscapes. Further, process centered restoration efforts could utilize our findings in formulating reference dynamics under a changing fire regime.     

Influence of landscape structure,topography, and forest type on spatial variation in historical fire regimes,Central Oregon,USA

Context

In the interior Northwest, debate over restoring mixed-conifer forests after a century of fire exclusion is hampered by poor understanding of the pattern and causes of spatial variation in historical fire regimes.

Objectives

To identify the roles of topography, landscape structure, and forest type in driving spatial variation in historical fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon.

Methods

We used tree rings to reconstruct multicentury fire and forest histories at 105 plots over 10,393 ha. We classified fire regimes into four types and assessed whether they varied with topography, the location of fuel-limited pumice basins that inhibit fire spread, and an updated classification of forest type.

Results

We identified four fire-regime types and six forest types. Although surface fires were frequent and often extensive, severe fires were rare in all four types. Fire regimes varied with some aspects of topography (elevation), but not others (slope or aspect) and with the distribution of pumice basins. Fire regimes did not strictly co-vary with mixed-conifer forest types.

Conclusions

Our work reveals the persistent influence of landscape structure on spatial variation in historical fire regimes and can help inform discussions about appropriate restoration of fire-excluded forests in the interior Northwest. Where the goal is to restore historical fire regimes at landscape scales, managers may want to consider the influence of topoedaphic and vegetation patch types that could affect fire spread and ignition frequency.

     

Effects of fire frequency on plant communities and landscape pattern in the Massif des Aspres (southern France)

Fire frequency can affect pattern and diversity in plant communities and landscapes. We had the opportunity to study changes due to recurring wildfires on the same sites over a period of 50 years in the Massif des Aspres (southern France). The study was carried out in areas occupied byQuercus suber andQ. ilex series. A comparison of historical and cartographical documents (vegetation maps covering a 50 year interval and an accurate map of major wildfires during this period) allowed us to determine the changes occurring over time with or without fire action. Plant communities were grouped into three main vegetation types: forests, treed shrublands and shrublands. The passage of three successive wildfires on the same site led to a decrease in forest areas and an increase in shrublands; however, shrublands were already present before the first fire of the period under consideration. Less frequent fire occurrence induced more complex heterogeneity and greater landscape diversity. In the study region as a whole, with or without fire action, a significant decrease in forest surfaces was recorded, whereas there was an increase of unforested communities such as treed shrublands and shrublands. In some parts of the Massif fires increased the homogeneity of the landscape, in other parts they created a greater heterogeneity and diversity of plant communities.     

Do land cover changes shape sensitivity to forest fires in peri-urban areas?

The present study assesses the spatial distribution of selected land cover classes at two years (1975 and 2000) in a Mediterranean urban area (Athens, Greece) to test the hypothesis that land cover changes determine an increase in the sensitivity of landscape to forest fires on a regional scale. While urban and agricultural areas increased, although with different rates of growth, forests and semi-natural areas decreased in the study area. These changes are reflected in a significant increase of vegetation sensitivity to forest fires measured by the forest fire risk (FR) index developed in the framework of MEDALUS project. The cover classes which contributed the most to the increase of the FR index were crop mosaic, mixed agricultural-natural areas and discontinuous, low-density settlements. Results of the present study indicate that the transformation of the fringe landscape towards low-quality agricultural and pasture areas and fragmented forest patches is potentially detrimental for environmental quality and the ecological fragility of land.     

Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer?

The objective of this paper is to identify land-cover types where fire incidence is higher (preferred) or lower (avoided) than expected from a random null model. Fire selectivity may be characterized by the number of fires expected in a given land-cover class and by the mean surface area each fire will burn. These two components of fire pattern are usually independent of each other. For instance, fire number is usually connected with socioeconomic causes whereas fire size is largely controlled by fuel continuity. Therefore, on the basis of available fire history data for Sardinia (Italy) for the period 2000–2004 we analyzed fire selectivity of given land-cover classes keeping both variables separate from each other. The results obtained from analysis of 13,377 fires show that for most land-cover classes fire behaves selectively, with marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of both fire number and fire size. Fire number is higher than expected by chance alone in urban and agricultural areas. In contrast, in forests, grasslands, and shrublands, fire number is lower than expected. In grasslands and shrublands mean fire size is significantly larger than expected from a random null model whereas in urban areas, permanent crops, and heterogeneous agricultural areas there is significant resistance to fire spread. Finally, as concerns mean fire size, in our study area forests and arable land burn in proportion to their availability without any significant tendency toward fire preference or avoidance. The results obtained in this study contribute to fire risk assessment on the landscape scale, indicating that risk of wildfire is closely related to land cover.     

Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climatic and topographic controls on patterns of fire in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains,USA

Climate and topography are two important controls on spatial patterns of fire disturbance in forests globally, via their influence on fuel moisture and fuel production. To assess the influences of climate and topography on fire disturbance patterns in a temperate forest region, we analyzed the mapped perimeters of fires that burned during 1930–2003 in two national parks in the eastern United States. These were Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) in the southern Appalachian Mountains and Shenandoah National Park (SNP) in the central Appalachian Mountains. We conducted GIS analyses to assess trends in area burned under differing climatic conditions and across topographic gradients (elevation, slope position, and aspect). We developed a Classification and Regression Tree model in order to further explore the interactions between topography, climate, and fire. The results demonstrate that climate is a strong driver of both spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire. Fire was most prevalent in the drier SNP than the wetter GSMNP, and during drought years in both parks. Topography also influenced fire occurrence, with relatively dry south-facing aspects, ridges, and lower elevations burning most frequently. However, the strength of topographic trends varied according to the climatic context. Weaker topographic trends emerged in the drier SNP than GSMNP, and during low-PDSI (dry) years than high-PDSI (wet) years in both parks. The apparent influence of climate on the spatial patterning of fire suggests a more general concept, that disturbance-prone landscapes exhibit weaker fine-scale spatial patterning of disturbance than do less disturbance-prone landscapes.     

Historical range of variability in eastern Cascades forests,Washington, USA

The historical range of variability (HRV) has been suggested as a coarse filter approach to maintain ecosystem sustainability and resiliency. The historical range of variability in forest age structure for the central eastern Cascade Range in Washington State, USA was developed from historical fire return intervals and the manner in which fire acted as both cyclic and stochastic processes. The proportions of seven forest structural stages calculated through these processes were applied to the area of each forest series within the central eastern Cascades landscape. Early successional forest stages were more common in high elevation forest than low elevation forest. The historical proportion of old growth and late successional forest varied from 38 to 63 percent of the forested landscape. These process-based estimates are consistent with those developed from forest structural information. HRV is a valuable planning tool for ecosystem conservation purposes, but must be applied to real landscapes with consideration of both temporal and spatial scale. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate

The characterization of the fire regime in the boreal forest rarely considers spatial attributes other than fire size. This study investigates the spatial attributes of fires using the physiography of the landscape as a spatial constraint at a regional scale. Using the Canadian National Fire Database, the size, shape, orientation and eccentricity were assessed for 1,136 fires between 1970 and 2010 in Quebec’s boreal forest and were summarized by ecodistrict. These spatial metrics were used to cluster 33 ecodistricts into homogeneous fire zones and then to determine which environmental variables (climate, topography, hydrography, and surficial deposits) influence the spatial attributes of fires. Analyses showed that 28 out of 33 ecodistricts belonging to a given fire zone were spatially contiguous, suggesting that factors driving the spatial attributes of fire are acting at a regional scale. Indeed, the orientation and size of fires vary significantly among the zones and are driven by the spatial orientation of the landscape and the seasonal regional climate. In some zones, prevailing winds during periods conducive to fire events parallel to the orientation of the landscape may favour the occurrence of very large fires (>100,000 ha). Conversely, an orientation of the landscape opposite to the prevailing winds may act as a natural firebreak and limit the fire size and orientation. This study highlights the need to consider the synergistic relationship between the landscape spatial patterns and the climate regime over the spatial attributes of fire at supra-regional scale. Further scale-dependant studies are needed to improve our understanding of the spatial factors controlling the spatial attributes of fire.     

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

     

A century of transformation: fire regime transitions from 1919 to 2019 in southeastern British Columbia,Canada

Context

In fire-excluded forests across western North America, recent intense wildfire seasons starkly contrast with fire regimes of the past. The last 100 years mark a transition between pre-colonial and modern era fire regimes, providing crucial context for understanding future wildfire behavior.

Objectives

Using the greatest time depth of digitized fire events in Canada, we identify distinct phases of wildfire regimes from 1919 to 2019 by evaluating changes in mapped fire perimeters (>?20-ha) across the East Kootenay region (including the southern Rocky Mountain Trench), British Columbia.

Methods

We detect transitions in annual number of fires, burned area, and fire size; explore the role of lightning- and human-caused fires in driving these transitions; and quantify departures from historical fire frequency at the regional level.

Results

Relative to historical fire frequency, fire exclusion has created a significant fire deficit in active fire regimes, with a minimum of 1–10 fires missed across 46.4-percent of the landscape. Fire was active from 1919 to 1939 with frequent and large fire events, but the regime was already altered by a century of colonization. Fire activity decreased in 1940, coinciding with effective fire suppression influenced by a mild climatic period. In 2003, the combined effects of fire exclusion and accelerated climate change fueled a shift in fire regimes of various forest types, with increases in area burned and mean fire size driven by lightning.

Conclusions

The extent of fire regime disruption warrants significant management and policy attention to alter the current trajectory and facilitate better co-existence with wildfire throughout this century.

Graphical abstract