江西省种粮大户应对气象灾害适应性行为经济绩效研究 ——基于DEA-Tobit模型

[目的]气象灾害频发给农业生产带来了较大损失,有效的适应性行为可以减少经济损失.农户作为生产的主体和气象灾害的直接承受者,其适应性行为可以有效降低气象灾害的负面影响,提高自身经济绩效.充分了解农户气象灾害适应性行为经济绩效及其影响因素显得尤为重要.[方法]研究基于江西省226户种粮大户调查数据,采用DEA-Tobit模...     

种粮大户应对气象灾害适应性行为综合绩效评价 ——基于AHP-FCE模型

[目的]随着气象灾害越发频繁,如何提升农户气象灾害适应行为能力成为当前亟待解决的问题,了解当前农户应对气象灾害能力现状是提升农户适应能力的前提.以江西省229户种粮大户为例,对其适应行为能力综合绩效进行评价.[方法]以社会绩效、经济绩效、环境绩效为评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法获取其适应行为能力的绩效评价结果.[结果]社会绩效、经济绩效、环境绩效的最大隶属度为0.5452、0.5992、0.7998,评价结果为"一般"、"一般"、"较差".其中,社会绩效得分最高,为67.6523分,环境绩效得分最低,得分为46分.综合绩效最大隶属度为0.5368,得分为60.5439分,隶属于评价集中的"一般".[结论]环境绩效是阻碍农户适应能力提升的主要因素,而农业收入、政府交流、化肥农药使用程度是提升农户适应能力综合绩效的主要因素.据此提出以下建议:增强农业技术培训力度,提高农业生产效率,促进农业收入增加,提升经济绩效;增强农户与各级政府之间的交流,减少信息壁垒,提升社会绩效,进而提升适应行为能力;推广绿色农业技术,减少化肥使用量,提高环境绩效.     

沿海城市应对台风气象灾害应急防御工作研究 ——以"利奇马"影响烟台为例

[目的]总结台风"利奇马"对烟台的主要影响,凝练出沿海城市应对台风气象灾害应急防御工作的要点和不足.[方法]分析烟台气象部门台风应急响应工作过程中预报预警、信息发布、部门联动、科普宣传以及应急工作诸环节.[结果]此次台风应急防御工作成功开展是灾害应急防御能力不断提升的成果.[结论]预报精准、提高预警提前量是做好气象灾害应急工作、减少气象灾害造成损失的关键,完善应急预案、加强事前预防是应对突发事件、取得应急胜利的基础和前提,加强组织领导和部门应急联动是防灾减灾救灾工作的保障.     

成本收益、政策认知与农户种粮意愿研究

基于农产品主产区沅江市183户农户调研数据,运用有序Logit模型,分析农户个人及家庭特征、成本收益、政策认知对农户种粮意愿的影响。结果表明：1)农户种粮意愿受其自身和家庭禀赋特征影响,男性种粮意愿较强烈,农业为主的农户对农村土地依赖性较高,种粮意愿相应提升。2)农户种粮意愿受成本收益因素显著影响,生产资料价格高、耕地破碎、灌溉条件差,会增加生产成本,进而降低农户种粮意愿;而粮食价格高、兼种经济作物和农业技术培训能增加农民种粮收益,提升农户种粮意愿。3)农户种粮意愿受政策认知因素显著影响,正面的粮食补贴政策制定评价、较高的农业保险政策执行满意度及农业社会化服务、粮食安全和提高粮食收购价格的认同,均将提升农户种粮意愿。     

社会嵌入视角下农户对气象灾害适应行为研究

【目的】在新经济社会学中的社会嵌入理论基础上,从“经济社会人”视角构建农户气象灾害适应行为影响因素框架,探讨社会嵌入对农户气象灾害适应行为的影响。【方法】采用层次分析法、熵权法、多元线性回归模型分析社会嵌入因素与农户个体因素对农户气象灾害适应行为的影响。【结果】自主因素中,农户个体特征与家庭特征均未通过显著性水平,但其回归系数均为正值。社会嵌入因素中,政府嵌入与认知嵌入均显著影响农户气象灾害适应行为,表明随着嵌入水平的加深,其气象灾害适应行为水平也越高;关系嵌入回归系数非负,但并不显著。【结论】农户气象灾害适应行为水平的提升需从引导、农户自身认知、精英群体示范性作用三维度出发：第一,加强适应行为决策引导,鼓励农户实施适应行为决策;第二,加强宣传与培训力度,普及农户适应行为决策认知;第三,搭建农户交流平台,发挥乡村精英群体示范性作用。     

种植规模、政府支持对农户气象灾害适应性行为的影响——基于江西省的调研

【目的】种植规模的扩大为农户采取气象灾害适应性行为提供了可能。在灾害频发的现实背景下,如何促进农户采取适应性行为应对气象灾害至关重要。【方法】基于江西省各地区271份农户问卷调查数据,运用Orderedprobit模型分析种植规模、政府支持及种植规模与政府支持的交互项对农户气象灾害适应性行为的影响。【结果】种植规模对农户气象灾害适应性行为具有促进效应,种植规模越大的农户越愿意采取气象灾害适应性行为,这说明推进土地适度规模经营能显著激活农户采取气象灾害适应性行为;政府支持正向影响农户采取气象灾害适应性行为,并能强化种植规模对农户气象灾害适应性行为的影响。【结论】因地制宜推动土地适度规模经营,因户制宜培育发展规模户,注重政府支持政策落地。     

近40a河南省农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究

全球气候变化背景下,农业气象灾害呈明显上升趋势,造成粮食大幅减产和价格波动,严重威胁全球粮食安全。利用1971-2010年河南省农业生产统计资料,分析了河南省农业气象灾害的特点和变化趋势,并探讨农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响显著,旱涝灾害是影响河南省粮食生产的主要灾种;1971-2010年间河南省粮食平均灾损为331.3万吨,平均灾损比例为9.6%。因此,加强灾害监测,建立和完善农业防灾减灾体系,提高应对农业气象灾害的能力对于保证河南粮食生产具有重要意义。     

畜牧业保险能够稳定农牧民的收入吗?——基于内蒙古包头市奶牛养殖户的问卷调查

在种植业收入占农户总收入的比重较低的背景下,研究农业保险对农户收入的影响可能会因为遗漏重要影响因素而导致结论偏误.为了消除农业收入的重要程度对农业保险收入稳定效应的影响,文中选取畜牧业保险作为研究对象,基于2012年和2013年对内蒙古包头市奶牛养殖户的问卷跟踪调查,采用两阶段模型实证检验农业保险的收入稳定效应.研究表明,参加奶牛保险对养殖户收入增加具有显著正向影响,农业保险政策的农牧民收入稳定效应明显.因此,加大发展农业保险政策,扩大补贴范围,提高农牧民的保险意识,有利于稳定农牧民的收入,促进农牧民收入的增加.     

生计资本对农户气象灾害适应性行为采纳的影响——基于“知行合一”视角

【目的】从气象灾害风险感知程度与适应性行为采纳程度一致性视角出发,探究生计资本框架对农户气象灾害适应性行为采纳程度的影响。【方法】使用二元Logit回归,并将信息资本引入生计资本框架,探讨该框架对农户气象灾害适应性行为采纳程度的影响,并进一步厘清影响农户“知行合一”的关键。【结果】首先,在3种形式的适应性行为采纳程度中,73%的样本农户对工程类措施采纳程度强,43%的样本农户对非工程类措施采纳程度强,而仅有37%的样本农户对组合措施采纳程度强,说明样本农户偏爱长期策略,但缺乏对农田的管理,从而造成组合措施采纳程度偏低,可能影响最终农业收入;其次,不同形式的适应性行为采纳程度受生计资本影响差别较大,但网络信息的获取对3种适应性行为采纳程度均产生显著影响;再次,农户实现“知行合一”受生计资本制约较强,其中农户实现非工程类措施“知行合一”受生计资本影响最大;最后,农户实现“知行合一”还可能受外界因素影响,其中农户对工程类措施采纳程度受外界干扰最大。【结论】在政策引导方面,首先建议政府发展乡村经济,提高农户收入;其次要重视人才培养,加强对农户技术、技能培训;最后要提高信息质量,政府应及时发布并...     

新疆于田绿洲农户应对气候变化适应性行为选择偏好测量研究

基于新疆于田县15个乡镇600户农户调研数据,借用离散选择模型中的多元Logit（MNL）模型分析农户应对气候变化的适应性选择过程中,其个体特征、所处外部环境等因素对某类适应性行为偏好的影响。结果表明,农业生产经验、教育和信贷支持程度对改变种植结构有正向影响;农业生产时长和借贷能力越强的农户,以及居住在绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户增加灌溉意愿强烈;性别、家庭年均纯收入、能否获得借贷是影响地膜覆盖面积的主要因素;受教育程度和家庭年均纯收入越高的农户,越愿意通过增加农作物多样性以应对气候变化,而与亲戚朋友和邻居交往越密切的农户更易对改变播种期持怀疑和反对意见;山区和绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户对家畜圈养适应性选择偏好最低。     

Development of resistance to pyrethroids in insects resistant to other insecticides

Resistance to pyrethroids in insects is rare, but its recent rapid development in the field suggests that this resistance may be facilitated by previous exposure to or by resistance to insecticides of unrelated groups. To test this houseflies of strain 49_r2b, originally resistant to dimethoate in the field, were selected eight times during ten generations with either pyrethrum extract or bioresmethrin with or without piperonyl butoxide or with dimethoate. Selecting with any of the pyrethroids led to resistance to these insecticides and in particular to pyrethrum/piperonyl butoxide. Selecting with pyrethrum/piperonyl butoxide resulted in strongest resistance to the pyrethroids tested, whereas selecting with bioresmethrin/piperonyl butoxide resulted in least resistance. These results show that dimethoate-resistant flies selected with pyrethroids can readily develop resistance to these insecticides, but development of resistance can be minimised by using bioresmethrin/piperonyl butoxide. The implications of these findings on the sequential use of insecticides are discussed.     

Strategies to prevent build-up of resistance to fungicides in cereal crops in Switzerland1

The use of fungicides in wheat and barley production has increased impressively during the last 10 years in Switzerland. Although no resistance to fungicides has yet been recorded in the field, strategies to delay resistance build-up have been developed. They are the result of collaboration between official research and advisory services. More co-operation is desirable, however, between officials and chemical companies at the level of farmer advice. Our recommendations are based on the following points: 1) minimal numbers of applications; 2) whenever possible, fungicides with multisite action should be used; 3) all components of a mixture should aim at pathogens present to a significant extent in the crop; 4) long-term, flexible strategies. Implementation of these strategies is made easier by several methods for deciding when and whether to treat (EPIPRE; risk evaluation; disease threshold levels). We recommend the alternation of single-site compounds according to their mode of action, rather than the use of mixtures (multi- + single-site, or single-site). A major reason is the common, simultaneous occurrence of a variety of pathogens in cereal crops. Preferring a ‘mixture strategy’ to alternation would imply the use of cocktails of several compounds with possible major disadvantages such as cost, residues, and iatrogenic diseases.     

Degradation of stilbene-type phytoalexins in relation to the pathogenicity of Botrytis cinerea to grapevines

The ability of eight isolates of Botrytis cinerea to degrade the stilbene phytoalexins, resveratrol and pterostilbene, was compared with their pathogenicity to grapevines. All strains which degraded resveratrol and pterostilbene were highly or moderately pathogenic to in vitro cultures of grapevines ( Vitis rupestris ) after inoculation with agar disks containing mycelium, while those which were unable to degrade phytoalexins were non-pathogenic. In all cases, the hydroxystilbene-degrading activity was related to the presence of laccase activity in the culture filtrates, as shown by using syringaldazine as substrate. The role of laccase-mediated degradation of phytoalexins in relation to pathogenicity of B. cinerea to grapevines in discussed.     

Variation in the resistance of Vicia faba to Ascochyta fabae in relation to disease development in field trials

The epidemic development of Ascochyta fabae in artificially infected field trials was studied in order to define resistance criteria and assess the variation in resistance of infected lines of faba bean. Large differences were demonstrated among French winter lines during the 1985/86 and 1986/87 growing seasons. All the scoring systems allowed the differentiation of very susceptible and resistant material, but disease indices, which account for the number and intensity of lesions, were more precise. The different phases of the epidemic are described on the basis of the variation in disease incidence on foliage and on pods during the 1986/87 cropping season in Brittany. There were three phases in disease development: initiation, spread throughout foliage, and pod infection, and these were all influenced by host resistance. On a very susceptible line, the disease spread was seen as an increase in the number and size of lesions and rapidly developed up the plant. Low disease indices observed on the resistant line 29 H were due to the small size and low frequency of lesions, resulting in a reduced area of foliage affected.     

Response of some moss species to different controlled environmental conditions in order to use in Landscaping

Nowadays, integrating moss among decorative plants in urban landscape architecture can be an important alternative to horticulture. Especially using moss design for covering roofs and walls it could be an interesting element to improve the life/-airquality. Introducing moss design using hydroponic systems requires finding the best technologies for cultivating the species that can be used by landscape architecture. The study has been performed at the University of Applied Science Osnabrueck, Germany, in 2015 and it consisted in testing several species of common moss in what concerns their behavior to environmental conditions controlled in the greenhouse, with the scope of hydroponic growing. 6 species of moss: Totula ruralis Hedw., Camptothecium sericeum Hedw, Ceratodon purpureus Hedw., Grimmia pulvinata Hedw, Racomitrium aciculare Hedw. and Bryum capillare Hedw., have been transplanted from a natural habitat to the greenhouse and their behavior to different water dosing and light intensity was checked. After the observations made using the principle of rating, it was concluded that the species Grimmia pulvinata and Ceratodon purpureus adapted the best to the controlled environment and this quality makes them suitable to be used in landscape design.     

Occurrence of Fusarium-produced naphthazarins in citrus trees and sensitivity of rootstocks to isomarticin in relation to citrus blight

Fusarium solani , the causal fungus of root and crown rot of citrus, produces naphthazarin toxins that were shown to be toxic to citrus plants. It was found that citrus trees in South Africa had varying levels of naphthazarins in their xylem. Significantly higher concentrations of these toxins were detected in trees with blight symptoms than in symptomless trees. Citrus seedlings grown in hydroponic culture containing isomarticin showed inhibition of growth, shortening of roots and accumulation of zinc in the trunk wood. Zinc deficiency symptoms were also observed on certain rootstocks. A procedural ranking of rootstocks indicated that trees with observed tolerance to blight in the field generally had higher tolerance to isomarticin in hydroponic culture, whereas trees susceptible to blight were more sensitive to the toxin. These findings indicate that Fusarium -produced isomarticin is involved in the induction of some of the symptoms associated with citrus blight syndrome.     

西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力对气候变化的响应

根据1961~2005年年平均气温、降水量资料,采用Thornthwaite Memoriai模型计算了西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力(Pv),分析了Pv的变化趋势,以及未来气候变化对Pv的影响。结果表明:近45年西藏一江两河地区Pv呈二次项曲线变化趋势,前22年(1961~1982)表现为不显著的减少趋势,减幅为376.0 kg/(hm2.10a),1983年以来呈显著的增加趋势,增幅为682.6 kg/(hm2.10a)。20世纪60年代流域气温偏低,降水偏多,Pv为正距平;80年代多干旱少雨年,Pv最低,为过去40年最低的10年;90年代雨水偏多,气温偏高,气候"暖湿",植物干物质积累多,Pv达到最高。"暖湿型"气候对作物生产最有利,平均增产11.62%,而"冷干型"气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产12.13%。未来"暖湿型"气候趋势,Pv将有不同程度提高,有利于生态环境改善。     

Assessment of inoculation methods to identify resistance to Fusarium crown rot in wheat

Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection - Crown rot, caused by Fusarium culmorum and Fusarium pseudograminearum, is one of the most pervasive diseases of wheat throughout the world. Fusarium...     

梨抗黑星病AFLP标记筛选

 Pear scab caused by Venturia nashicola is one of the most destructive diseases of pears. Molecular markers linked to scab resistance gene is expected to be useful for improving pear. In this study, the F₁ population derived from the cross of ‘Huangguan’ and ‘Yali’ was analyzed genetically. The resistance of pear to scab was proved to be controlled by a single gene in a dominant manner. Bulked segregant analysis (BSA) was conducted to screen 64 fluorescent AFLP primer pairs. A marker designated as D3-365 was found to be linked to the resistant locus. Selective genotype linkage analysis showed that the genetic distance between the marker and the resistant locus was 14.9 cM.     

2017年-2021年江苏省小麦赤霉病菌群体对4种杀菌剂的抗药性监测

为明确江苏省小麦赤霉病菌群体对常用杀菌剂的抗药性情况,本研究于2017年-2021年连续5年分别从苏南、苏北及苏中小麦种植区采集病穗,分离培养获得赤霉病菌菌株共计4 055株,采用区分剂量法测定了供试菌株对4种杀菌剂(多菌灵、氰烯菌酯、戊唑醇和咪鲜胺)的抗性频率。结果表明:2017年-2021年江苏省田间小麦赤霉病菌对多菌灵的抗性频率分别为58.44%、56.30%、44.68%、48.28%、46.39%,呈逐年下降的趋势;不同地区小麦赤霉病菌对多菌灵的抗药性呈现地区差异性,苏北地区对多菌灵的抗性频率最高,其次是苏中地区,抗性频率最低的是苏南地区。2021年首次在田间采集到对氰烯菌酯、戊唑醇和咪鲜胺的抗性菌株,其抗性频率分别为0.45%、0.89%和0.09%,在以上的抗性菌株中同时具有多菌灵抗性的双重抗性菌株。表明江苏省小麦赤霉病菌对氰烯菌酯、戊唑醇和咪鲜胺产生了抗药性,虽抗性频率较低,仍需尽快制定田间抗性治理方案,延缓田间病菌对常用杀菌剂的抗性发展。