Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate

It has recently been suggested that the solar irradiance has varied in phase with the 80- to 90-year period represented by the envelope of the 11-year sunspot cycle and that this variation is causing a significant part of the changes in the global temperature. This interpretation has been criticized for statistical reasons and because there are no observations that indicate significant changes in the solar irradiance. A set of data that supports the suggestion of a direct influence of solar activity on global climate is the variation of the solar cycle length. This record closely matches the long-term variations of the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature during the past 130 years.     

An empirical model of total solar irradiance variation between 1874 and 1988

An empirical model of variations in the total solar irradiance caused by observed changes in photospheric magnetic activity between 1874 and 1988 is presented. The model provides a remarkably good representation of the irradiance variations observed by satellite-borne radiometers between 1980 and 1988. It suggests that the mean total irradiance has been rising steadily since about 1945, with the largest peak so far at about 1980 and another large peak expected during the current solar cycle 22. But it is doubtful whether even this rise can contribute significantly to global warming, unless the temperature increase of about 0.02 degrees C that it produces in current energy balance models seriously underestimates the sensitivity of climate to solar irradiance changes.     

Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance

The sun's total irradiance decreased from 1980 to mid-1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and has recently begun to increase. This time interval covered the decrease in solar activity from the maximum of solar cycle 21 to solar minimum and the onset of cycle 22. The sun's ultraviolet irradiance also decreased during the descending phase of cycle 21 and, like the total irradiance, is now increasing concurrently with the increase in cycle 22 activity. Although only 1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this radiation from 1 July 1981 to 30 June 1985 accounted for 19 percent of the decrease in the total irradiance over the same period.     

Spectrum line intensity as a surrogate for solar irradiance variations

Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) solar constant measurements from 1980 to 1986 are compared with ground-based, irradiance spectrophotometry of selected Fraunhofer lines. Both data sets were identically sampled and smoothed with an 85-day running mean, and the ACRIM total solar irradiance (S) values were corrected for sunspot blocking (S(c)). The strength of the mid-photospheric manganese 539.4-nanometer line tracks almost perfectly with ACRIM S(e), Other spectral features formed high in the photosphere and chromosphere also track well. These comparisons independently confirm the variability in the ACRIM S(e), signal, indicate that the source of irradiance is faculae, and indicate that ACRIM S(e), follows the 11-year activity cycle.     

The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate

A general circulation model that simulated changes in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone was used to investigate the response of the atmosphere to the 11-year solar activity cycle. At solar maximum, a warming of the summer stratosphere was found to strengthen easterly winds, which penetrated into the equatorial upper troposphere, causing poleward shifts in the positions of the subtropical westerly jets, broadening of the tropical Hadley circulations, and poleward shifts of the storm tracks. These effects are similar to, although generally smaller in magnitude than, those observed in nature. A simulation in which only solar irradiance was changed showed a much weaker response.     

Observed ozone response to variations in solar ultraviolet radiation

During the winter of 1979, the solar ultraviolet irradiance varied with a period of 13.5 days and an amplitude of 1 percent. The zonal mean ozone values in the tropics varied with the solar irradiance, with an amplitude of 0.25 to 0.60 percent. This observation agrees with earlier calculations, although the response may be overestimated. These results imply changes in ozone at an altitude of 48 kilometers of up to 12 percent over an 11-year solar cycle. Interpretation of ozone changes in the upper stratosphere will require measurements of solar ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths near 200 nanometers.     

Torsional oscillations of the sun

The sun's differential rotation has a cyclic pattern of change that is tightly correlated with the sunspot, or magnetic activity, cycle. This pattern can be described as a torsional oscillation, in which the solar rotation is periodically sped up or slowed down in certain zones of latitude while elsewhere the rotation remains essentially steady. The zones of anomalous rotation move on the sun in wavelike fashion, keeping pace with and flanking the zones of magnetic activity. It is uncertain whether this torsional oscillation is a globally coherent ringing of the sun or whether it is a local pattern caused by and causing local changes in the magnetic fields. In either case, it may be an important link in the connection between the rotation and the cycle that is widely believed to exist but is not yet understood.     

Stellar Activity and Brightness Variations: A Glimpse at the Sun's History

Radiometric measurements during the past decade from the Solar Maximum Mission and Nimbus 7 satellites have shown that the total solar irradiance varies in step with the sun's 11-year magnetic activity cycle. Stellar observations from the Lowell and Mount Wilson observatories now confirm and elaborate this discovery. These measurements show that older stars similar to the sun tend to become brighter as their magnetic activity level increases, just as the sun does during its 11-year activity cycle. Younger stars, however, tend to become fainter as their magnetic activity level increases. This contrasting behavior suggests that the balance between the competing phenomena that influence solar brightness variability has shifted during the sun's lifetime.     

Magnetic flux transport on the sun

Although most of the magnetic flux observed on the sun originates in the low-latitude sunspot belts, this flux is gradually dispersed over a much wider range of latitudes by supergranular convective motions and meridional circulation. Numerical simulations show how these transport processes interact over the 11-year sunspot cycle to produce a strong "topknot" polar field, whose existence near sunspot minimum is suggested by the observed strength of the interplanetary magnetic field and by the observed areal extent of polar coronal holes. The required rates of diffusion and flow are consistent with the decay rates of active regions and with the rotational properties of the large-scale solar magnetic field.     

Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate

Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.     

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.     

Stellar luminosity variations and global warming

Recent studies indicate that variation in the sun's luminosity is less than that observed in many other stars of similar magnetic activity. Current findings also indicate that in more active stars, the attenuation by faculae of sunspot luminosity modulation is less effective than in the sun at present. The sun could thus become photometrically more variable (and dimmer) if its magnetic activity exceeded present levels. But the levels of solar activity required for this to occur are not observed in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 records over the past several millennia, which indicates that such an increase in amplitude of surface magnetism-driven variations in solar luminosity is unlikely in the present epoch.     

运城市旱涝灾害与太阳黑子周期关系分析

根据1956～2007年山西省运城市的降水资料和美国观测站公布的太阳黑子活动周期的观测资料,在用Z指数对降水资料进行处理而确定旱涝等级和年份后,对太阳黑子活动周期与运城市旱涝年的相关关系进行了分析。发现运城市涝灾主要发生在太阳黑子周期的极大值年及其后第3年,旱灾则在太阳黑子周期的极值年及前后1～2年内都有可能发生。     

基于Elman网络的地面太阳总辐射估算方法

通过建立地面太阳总辐射的Elman网络估算模型,利用北京市1971～1995年的气象数据训练网络,并对1996～2000年的数据进行估算。对比分析结果表明,基于Elman网络的地面太阳总辐射估算方法具有较高的精度。     

Changes in atmospheric carbon-14 attributed to a variable sun

The (14)C production rate in the upper atmosphere changes with time because the galactic cosmic-ray flux responsible for (14)C production is modulated by the changes in solar wind magnetic properties. The resulting changes in the atmospheric (14)C level are recorded in tree rings and are used to calculate past (14)C production rates from a carbon reservoir model that describes terrestrial carbon exchange between the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. These past (14)C production rate changes are compared with (14)C production rates determined from 20th-century neutron flux measurements, and a theory relating (14)C production and solar variability, as given by geomagnetic Aa indices and sunspot numbers, is developed. This theory takes into account long-term solar changes that were previously neglected. The 860-year (14)C record indicates three episodes when sunspots apparently were absent: A.D. 1654 to 1714 (Maunder minimum), 1416 to 1534 (Sp?rer minimum), and 1282 to 1342 (Wolf minimum). A less precisely defined minimum occurred near A.D. 1040. The part of this record after A.D. 1645 correlates well with the basic features of the historical record of sunspot numbers. The magnitude of the calculated (14)C production rates points to a further increase in cosmic-ray flux when sunspots are absent. This flux was greatest during the Sp?rer minimum. A record of approximate sunspot numbers and Aa indices for the current millennium is also presented.     

Solar structure and terrestrial weather

If there is indeed an effect of the variable sun on the weather, the physical cause for it remains quite elusive (12). We should keep in mind the possibility that there may be several causes and several effects. The situation may change through the 11-year sunspot cycle and the 22-year solar magnetic cycle, as well as on longer time scales. Work is proceeding at a lively pace at the institutions mentioned in this article and at many others around the world. The Soviet Union has long had considerably more workers interested in this field than has any other country. A bilateral agreement between the Soviet Union and the United States has considerably increased the interactions between workers interested in this subject, including an exchange of extended visits between the two countries. A detailed knowledge of solar causes of geomagnetic activity is only now beginning to emerge after many years of scientific efforts. This suggests that a possible successful solution to the sun-weather problem will require a similar magnitude of effort. We look forward with interest and optimism to the results of the next few years.     

Observations of solar irradiance variability

High-precision measurements of total solar irradiance, made by the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor on the Solar Maximum Mission satellite, show the irradiance to have been variable throughout the first 153 days of observations. The corrected data resolve orbit-to-orbit variations with uncertainties as small as 0.001 percent. Irradiance fluctuations are typical of a band-limited noise spectrum with high-frequency cutoff near 0.15 day(-1) their amplitudes about the mean value of 1368.31 watts per square meter approach +/- 0.05 percent. Two large decreases in irrradiance of up to 0.2 percent lasting about 1 week are highly correlated with the development of sunspot groups. The magnitude and time scale of the irradiance variability suggest that considerable energy storage occurs within the convection zone in solar active regions.     

Small-scale jetlike features in penumbral chromospheres

We observed fine-scale jetlike features, referred to as penumbral microjets, in chromospheres of sunspot penumbrae. The microjets were identified in image sequences of a sunspot taken through a Ca II H-line filter on the Solar Optical Telescope on board the Japanese solar physics satellite Hinode. The microjets' small width of 400 kilometers and short duration of less than 1 minute make them difficult to identify in existing observations. The microjets are possibly caused by magnetic reconnection in the complex magnetic configuration in penumbrae and have the potential to heat the corona above a sunspot.     

Detection of emerging sunspot regions in the solar interior

Sunspots are regions where strong magnetic fields emerge from the solar interior and where major eruptive events occur. These energetic events can cause power outages, interrupt telecommunication and navigation services, and pose hazards to astronauts. We detected subsurface signatures of emerging sunspot regions before they appeared on the solar disc. Strong acoustic travel-time anomalies of an order of 12 to 16 seconds were detected as deep as 65,000 kilometers. These anomalies were associated with magnetic structures that emerged with an average speed of 0.3 to 0.6 kilometer per second and caused high peaks in the photospheric magnetic flux rate 1 to 2 days after the detection of the anomalies. Thus, synoptic imaging of subsurface magnetic activity may allow anticipation of large sunspot regions before they become visible, improving space weather forecast.     

阜新暴雨日数与太阳黑子活动周期关系研究

对太阳黑子活动周期与1951～2005年阜新暴雨日数进行了分析研究。结果发现,各太阳黑子谷值周期黑子相对数与各周期内暴雨日数相关显著,相关系数达-0.842;同时,太阳黑子谷值周期内某年的阜新暴雨日数与该年的太阳黑子数相关系数达-0.737。说明阜新暴雨日数与太阳活动有着密切的相关。这一结论将为研究暴雨发生规律及暴雨的预测、预报、农业旱涝规律提供有利的气候背景和依据。