基于灰色模型的黑龙江省水稻生育期热量指数分析及预测

选择黑龙江省11个水稻农气观测站点为研究对象,利用1971-2016年逐旬气温资料和水稻发育期资料,将黑龙江省划分为东、西、南三个区域,使用微分方程动态建模方法建立3个区域5、6、7、8月热量指数的灰色预测模型,在此基础上滚动预报水稻生育期的总热量指数,以期开展黑龙江省水稻低温冷害的预测服务。结果表明热量指数能够很好地反映水稻生育期热量条件,且与低温冷害年有很好的对应关系。黑龙江省不同水稻产区热量指数灰色模型模拟结果与原序列关联度均达到0.88以上,通过了关联度检验和残差检验,1971-2010年拟合平均准确率为94.6%～97.6%,且7、8月的预报准确率普遍高于5、6月;2011-2016年的试报准确率均在97%以上,说明各模型的模拟效果很好。利用灰色模型预测黑龙江省水稻生长季热量指数是可行的,可以满足水稻生长发育过程中延迟性冷害的实时评估需求。     

渭河流域近50年来气候舒适度对气候变化的响应

气候舒适度(CCI)是反映气候条件对人体感受影响的指数.根据渭河流域内13个站点19612010年温度、风速、相对湿度等气象要素的平均值,计算出流域内各站点气候舒适度指数各级日数持续时间及分布情况.结果表明,冷和寒冷的日数在减少,可达舒适的日数在缓慢增加,其变化规律与温度变化密切相关.除华山站外,各站点的舒适度都比较高,大部分站点可达舒适的时间为5个月以上.流域内可达舒适的平均天数占全年的46.9％,寒冷及冷的日数可占27.1％,没有出现炎热和酷热的天气.流域内西安、武功、天水和宝鸡站点的气候舒适度较高,其次为铜川、洛川、环县等地区.     

Particle-associated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Atmosphere of Hong Kong

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in total suspended particulates (TSP) collected at six rural and urban stations in Hong Kong from 1993–1995 using high volume air samplers were identified using GC-MS (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry). The results showed that the PAHs exhibited distinct spatial and seasonal variability. The total PAH content (ΣPAH) in the samples ranged from 0.41 to 48 ng m^-3. The unsubstituted analogs are the characteristic products of high temperature combustion processes. The highest average ΣPAH was measured at the street-level station in Mong Kok indicating that vehicles were high PAHs contributors. The rural station at Hok Tsui exhibited the lowest PAH level, however; influences of city plumes could be seen when northerly or northeasterly winds prevailed in the winter. All stations experienced the highest loading of PAHs in autumn and the lowest in summer; the former was 2.8 times greater than the latter. This seasonal variability is due to the Asian monsoon system, precipitation, micrometeorology, and the rate of photodegradation. In summer, Hong Kong experiences relatively clean oceanic air and high rates of precipitation and photodegradation, while upon the onset of the winter monsoon, local air mass is replaced by polluted air streams from the Asian continent. Benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, benzo(e)pyrene, indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene and benzo(ghi)perylene were the dominant species in the samples. The PAH distribution patterns at different stations were similar within each season. However, seasonal variations existed. For example, phenanthrene contributed up to 14% of the total PAH in summer, while the dominance of benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene was more significant in autumn and winter.     

SO2 and NOx Emissions from Kuwait Power Stations in Years 2001 and 2004 and Evaluation of the Impact of These Emissions on Air Quality Using Industrial Sources Complex Short-Term (ISCST) Model

Comprehensive emission inventories for 2001 and 2004 for Kuwait’s main power stations located at Al-Doha and Al-Subyia have been prepared. These inventories are inserted, in conjunction with meteorological data, into the Source Complex model for Short Term Dispersion (ISCST4.5) to predict ambient ground level concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at selected receptors for years 2001 and 2004. The comparison of the results obtained for these 2 years show the influence of increase in emission rates due to urban and industrial growth. For model validation, computed results are compared with the measured daily average values of SO₂ and NOx collected at a fixed Kuwait Environment Protection Agency air quality monitoring station located at the roof of polyclinic in Rabia. Individual contributions of each power station to the highest predicted values are assessed. The five highest hourly, daily and annual ground level concentration values under prevailing meteorological conditions are compared for 2001 and 2004. It is found that the hourly mean concentrations are strongly influenced by the prevailing meteorological conditions. The effect of meteorological conditions has not been that dominant for the daily and annual mean values and the predicted values for 2004 are higher than 2001, simply corresponding to a high emission rates, especially in summer months. Top 50 daily average values of SO₂ show a slope of 0.806 for 2001 which means that the model predictions are 20% less than the observed levels. However, the predicted slope of SO₂ for 2004 is 0.96 and the model predictions are in very close agreement with the observed data.     

气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征(Ⅱ):西北主要粮食作物干旱

基于中国西北地区1961-2010年149个气象站点逐日气象资料及春小麦、春玉米和夏玉米生育期资料,采用作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI)为作物干旱指标,明确了研究区域内3种作物干旱的空间分布特征和时间演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)3种作物生长季内及各生育阶段,干旱发生频繁,尤以特旱和重旱发生范围广、频率高,轻旱和中旱多发生在研究区域东部,甘肃南部和陕西南部等个别地区干旱发生频率相对较小。(2)春小麦生长季内干旱发生站次比为79.1%,春玉米生长季内干旱发生站次比为84.5%,夏玉米干旱发生站次比为77.4%;夏玉米生长季内站次比波动较小,春小麦和春玉米波动较大。总体而言,研究时段内春小麦生长期干旱发生站次比呈减小趋势,降幅为每10a减少0.55个百分点,春玉米和夏玉米干旱站次比呈增加趋势,增幅分别为每10a增加0.24个百分点和0.20个百分点。(3)研究区域东部春小麦和春玉米各生育阶段干旱强度呈增加趋势,西部呈下降趋势;夏玉米干旱强度在陕西北部、宁夏和河西走廊呈增加趋势,其它地区多为降低趋势。     

Air Pollution and its Impact on Lung Function of Children in Delhi, the Capital City of India

Air pollution is a major contributor to several respiratory problems, it affects the whole population in general but children are more susceptible. Exposure to automobile exhaust is associated with increased respiratory symptoms and may impair lung function in children. In view of this, the study was conducted among the children of Delhi, the capital city of India, where ambient air quality was much above the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The study was conducted in children aged 9–17 years. Pulmonary function test was carried out following the guideline of American Thoracic Society using a portable, electronic spirometer. Air quality data was collected from Central and State Pollution Control Boards. In addition, the level of particulate matter in indoor air was measured by portable laser photometer. Lung function was reduced in 43.5% schoolchildren of the urban area compared with 25.7% of control group. The urban children had increased prevalence of restrictive, obstructive, as well as combined type of lung functions deficits. Besides higher prevalence, the magnitude of lung function deficits was also much more in them. After controlling potential confounders like season, socioeconomic conditions and ETS, PM10 level in ambient air was found to be associated with restrictive (OR?=?1.35, 95% CI 1.07–1.58), obstructive (OR?=?1.45, 95% CI 1.16–1.82), and combined type of lung function deficits (OR?=?1.74, 95% CI 1.37–2.71) in children. Spearman's rank correlation test reaffirmed the association. The study confirms that the level of air pollution is affecting the children.     

2022年夏收粮油作物生育期气象条件及其影响分析

基于主产区气象观测站和农业气象站实测气象资料和作物发育期资料,计算冬小麦和油菜生长季的气候适宜度和灾害指数等参数,评价该阶段气象条件对夏收粮油作物的利弊影响。结果显示：2021/2022年度冬小麦、油菜生育期内,产区大部光热充足、土壤墒情适宜,冻害、干旱等农业气象灾害影响程度偏轻,气候适宜度高于上年和近5a平均值,气象条件利于夏收粮油作物生长发育和产量形成;成熟收获期间多晴好天气,收获进度快、质量高。但北方冬麦区秋播期多雨渍涝,冬小麦播种期明显推迟,冬前壮苗比例偏少、分蘖不足。江南和贵州等油菜产区冬季持续阴雨寡照,影响油菜发育进程。     

A gaussian-box modeling approach for urban air quality management in a northern chinese city—I. model development

A Gaussian-box modeling approach was presented in this paper to examine the urban air quality due to multiple point- and area-source emissions in the northern Chinese city of Fengnan, which is associated with a deteriorated air quality as a consequence of industrialization and rapid urban growth. A 3-D multi-box (3DMB) air quality model was developed to predict air quality due to area-source emissions. It improved upon the conventional box models by allowing consideration of more details in spatial variations of emission sources and meteorological conditions. The modeling domain was divided into various layers within the mixing height, while each layer was associated with a number of sub-boxes. A multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian modeling approach was then applied to predict the air quality in different sub-boxes that are associated with multiple point-source emissions. Thus the Gaussian-box modeling approach could effectively simulate impacts of both area- and point-source emissions but also reflect more details of the spatial variations in source distributions and meteorological conditions. This modeling approach was employed to predict daily average SO₂, TSP and PM₁₀ concentrations for each sub-box during the heating and non-heating seasons, respectively. The analysis of the mean normalized error of the modeling results demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the developed method, and the presented method could provide more useful and scientific bases for developing effective urban air quality control and management strategies.     

Soil degradation in environmentally sensitive areas driven by urbanization: an example from Southeast Europe

Rapid urbanization together with policy ineffectiveness in controlling urban growth is often associated to soil and land degradation in both the developing and developed world. The present study analyses the relationship between urban expansion and soil degradation in an arid Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) where the compact settlement pattern has been replaced by low‐density urban development. The study area is one of the most densely populated areas in the Mediterranean basin that has experienced an impressive growth in population during the last 60 yr. Low‐density, dispersed urban settlements developed during the last decade (2000–2010) occupy primarily land at medium‐low soil quality. However, the overall quality conditions of vegetation, climate and soil assessed by our study shows that urban expansion consumed high‐quality land previously classified as non‐vulnerable to desertification. By contrast, compact urban settlements have consumed land of intermediate or even high soil quality, but experience poor climatic and vegetation conditions that are classified as highly vulnerable to desertification. Regional planning should incorporate multi‐dimensional indicators of soil, climate and vegetation quality to evaluate the environmental impact of urban expansion.     

西安市区空气污染指数时空分布特征

基于2010-2012年西安市13个空气自动监测站逐日的监测数据,分析空气污染指数的日、月、季度、年际、采暖期和非采暖期变化,并与秦皇岛等北方城市对比,用探索性空间分析技术ESDA研究污染指数的空间自相关和集聚效应.结果表明：空气污染指数的日变化较大,PM10是西安市区的首要污染物;1月、12月污染指数较大,7月、8月较小;空气污染指数表现为4季度＞1、3季度＞2季度;3年来,PM10污染指数有所降低,主城区SO2、NO2污染指数降低,其他地区增加;采暖期污染指数高于非采暖期,采暖期SO2、NO2和PM10指数分别是非采暖期的2.01～2.75、1.42 ～ 1.82和1.18 ～1.36倍;西安市区空气污染指数有弱的正空间自相关,聚集方式以高高（HH）和低低（LL）聚集为主,低高（LH）和高低（HL）聚集为辅,污染指数高低分化.污染指数均表现为中部高,北部低,南部中等.不同污染物污染指数中心的重叠表明,西安市空气质量受SO2、NO2和PM10的共同影响.     

Local patterns of sulphur deposition around Halifax/Dartmouth,Nova Scotia: 1979–83.

Five years of sampling support earlier findings that SO₂ emissions from Halifax/Dartmouth, Nova Scotia (population 270,000) cause wet sulphate deposition within 40 or 50 km of the city to be twice regional values. The urban effect is greatest within the city itself. Mean monthly sulphate concentrations in precipitation are usually more highly correlated among stations than is monthly deposition; the highest correlations are among concentrations in and around the city. Month to month variations in sulphate concentration in the city and at Oyster Pond (50 km east of the city) appear to be affected mainly by urban influences; those at St. Margaret's Bay (25 km west of the city) appear to be affected by both urban and regional influences. The urban effect appears to have diminished somewhat during the 5 yr, possibly because the urban emissions have decreased by 35% since 1980.     

Development of Chemical Index as a Measure of In-Stream Water Quality in Response to Land-Use and Land Cover Changes

Water pollution in response to accelerated land-use/land cover changes has drawn concerns because of public health and environmental impacts. The study was conducted to evaluate the impact of land use/land cover changes, seasonal, and location on water quality of streams within the Wheeler Lake Watershed basin in northern Alabama. Temporal water samples from 18 sheppard streams were randomly collected in 2000 and 2001, processed and analyzed for pH, and total nitrogen (TN), dissolved (Dp), particulate (Pp) and total phosphorus (Tp), dissolved oxygen (DO) and soluble lead (Pb) concentration, employing standard methods of analysis. The data were normalized and integrated into a simple index (WQC_Index) to evaluate stream water quality. Results showed that the urban proportion of the total watershed basin had increased from 2.9 to 14.7% with an associated loss of agricultural (8.9%) and wetland (4.8%) covers from 1992 to 2000. A change in land-use/land covers in association with seasonal and location variation significantly affected stream water quality. Total nitrogen concentration in stream water had a peak during the summer at 34% above the annual mean. While both Pp and Tp concentrations peaking during the summer at 24% above the annual mean and about 25% below the annual mean during spring, the DO concentrations were 46% above the annual mean during the fall and 18 to 26% below annual mean during summer. The WQC_Index had responded very seasonal and showed significant identical trends, with 21% degradation in water quality during the summer above the annual mean and improvement during the spring at 20% above the annual mean. Upstream water had a significantly greater Pp and Tp (21 to 28%) concentration than at down- and middle streams water. Location and seasonal variations had significant interactive effects on Pp, Tp and DO concentration of stream water. Total amount of seasonal rainfall significantly accounted 99.6% of the variations in WQC_Index. Increasing seasonal mean relative humidity, air and soil temperature, evaporation and solar radiation had positive relationship with the variations in WQC_Index. Among the water quality parameters, both Pp and Tp were correlated (r ² = 0.998^?*?) to each other, and accounted for more than 80% variability of the WQC_Index. Highly significant positive linear relationship between Pp and Tp concentration suggested that 99.8% of the P in stream water is in Pp form which probably transported with sediments in surface runoff. In other words, Pp is the main pollutant responsible for degradation of stream water quality in the Wheeler lake basin. Routine measurement of either Pp or Tp concentration could be used as sensitive and early indicator of temporal changes in stream water quality even when the other parameters changed negligibly or remain unchanged.     

Monitoring Particulate Matter Concentrations with Passive Samplers: Application to the Greater Thessaloniki Area

Modern European cities are characterized by high particulate matter (PM) concentrations. Unfortunately, the number of stations monitoring air pollution, especially PM, is never sufficient for the overall representation of the problem. In the present work, an inexpensive outdoor passive sampler (based on an indoor passive sampler) was developed and assembled in an effort to provide the means to extend current PM monitoring networks. The uncertainty of the sampler was tested in vitro and in vivo. Twenty such outdoor passive samplers were assembled and installed at specific locations in the Greater Thessaloniki Area and measurements of PM were carried out. The results were in good agreement with the official monitoring stations. In addition, they revealed the aggravated air quality in the center of the city and in the west suburbs.     

Reducing NO2 Pollution over Urban Areas: Air Quality Modelling as a Fundamental Management Tool

Recently, specific air quality problems have been detected in the northern region of Portugal. The nitrogen oxide (NO₂) annual limit value has been surpassed at several air quality monitoring stations in the northern region, and according to European legislation, air quality plans must be designed and implemented to reduce those levels. The analysis of the air quality data from the stations concerning NO₂ exceedances indicates that traffic is responsible for an increase of more than 40?% compared with the urban background value. Specific measures to reduce NOx emissions have been selected and are related not only mainly to the traffic sector but also to the industrial and residential combustion sectors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the selected measures on the ambient levels of NO₂ in northern Portugal using a numerical modelling tool??The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). TAPM was applied over the study region using a 120?×?120-km² simulation domain and a spatial resolution of 4.8?×?4.8?km². The entire year of 2010 was simulated and was set as the base year to analyse the impact of the selected measures. Two scenarios have been defined and simulated: the base situation, which considers current NOx emissions, and the reduction scenario for which NOx emissions were re-estimated considering the implementation of the measures. The modelling results demonstrate a decrease of 4?C5???g?m^?3 in the annual NO₂ levels in the study region. Moreover, the implementation of the selected measures will allow compliance with the NO₂ annual limit values in three of the five air quality stations that measured levels surpassing those established by legislation. This situation demands additional measures that should be implemented at the local level and that particularly focus on the traffic sector.     

中国夏玉米和冬小麦近年生育期变化及其与气候的关系

作物物候期受气候条件和人为耕作的共同影响,而水热气候条件又直接影响着人为耕作时间。全球变暖背景下温度增加的趋势在近年来出现了停滞现象,针对这一新的气候变化特征,本研究选取作物物候观测和气象观测的站点数据,利用经典的统计学方法分析2000—2013年中国夏玉米和冬小麦主要物候期的变化趋势和空间分布,及作物生育期与对应水热条件的相关关系。研究发现:夏玉米和冬小麦各主要物候期均呈现一定程度的延后,其中64%的站点显示夏玉米成熟期延后,冬小麦成熟期延后的站点数比例达78%。研究期间,夏玉米和冬小麦的生育期历时对温度和降水变化均比较敏感,88%和64%的站点分别显示出夏玉米和冬小麦的生育期历时与平均温度之间呈负相关关系,而71%和77%的站点显示夏玉米和冬小麦生育期历时与年均降水量呈正相关关系。本研究时段内的气温变化也不同于一般性认为的单调升温,夏玉米生育期对应的平均温度呈增加和降低趋势的站点数基本相同,但显示降水量增加的站点较多,达到总站点数的68%;而冬小麦整个生育期显示冷干化趋势的站点居多,显示温度降低和降水量下降的站点数均占总站点数的60%以上。此外,本研究还用轮作站点探讨说明了可以利用年值气候数据替代生育期气候数据分析夏玉米和冬小麦轮作的物候和生育期特征。本研究通过站点数据证实了作物生长发育过程对气候变化的敏感性,新的气候条件下我国夏玉米和冬小麦的物候也对应产生了新的特征。     

基于相对湿润指数的贵州省气象干旱时空变化特征研究

为探究贵州省各区域干旱发生频率、强度及不同等级干旱的时空分布特点,基于贵州省17个气象站1981—2019年逐日气象数据,利用相对湿润指数,同时结合Couple二维分布函数,探讨了干旱强度和干旱频率的联合、条件概率特征,以揭示贵州省气象干旱的时空分布规律。结果表明:(1)贵州省1981—2019年气象干旱强度呈减弱—增强趋势,整体上呈减弱的趋势,干旱频率呈上升趋势。(2)贵州省年与季尺度发生干旱强度在空间上分布有所不同,季尺度中,冬旱强度最强,秋旱和夏旱次之,春旱强度较弱;(3)年及冬、春季节干旱频率在空间上呈西高东低的分布格局,夏、秋季节分布较为一致; 季尺度中,干旱频率呈冬季最高,春、秋季次之,夏季最低;(4)在干旱联合特征中,季尺度的联合特征值呈春季>冬季>秋季>夏季,在各季节干旱强度的条件下,各季节干旱频率的条件概率特征值表现为夏季>秋季>冬季>春季。综上,贵州省气象干旱强度逐渐降低,干旱频发,呈春旱高频率、高强度,夏旱低强度、高频率。     

Simulated Summertime Regional Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations over Greece

Ground-level ozone concentrations were estimated for Greece during a summer period of the year 2000 using the regional air quality model UAM-V off-line coupled with the mesoscale meteorological model MM5. An anthropogenic NOx, NMVOCs and CO emission inventory and biogenic NMVOCs emission data were used to support model simulations. The evaluation analysis indicates a quite satisfactory model performance in reproducing ozone levels. The simulated mean ozone concentrations are above the 32-ppb EU phytotoxicity limit over almost all continental and maritime areas of Greece. Over the greater part of the country, the background mean ozone levels range from 40 to 55 ppb. Ozone values higher than the 55-ppb EU human health protection limit reaching 60 ppb dominate part of the southern Aegean Sea that is influenced by the Athens urban plume. In the areas where anthropogenic emission densities are high, the mean ozone levels vary between 20 and 40 ppb. Over the greater part of Greece, the simulated mean daily maximum ozone concentrations range from 50 to 65 ppb. More enhanced maximum ozone concentrations up to 95 ppb mainly dominate over the greater areas of the two largest Greek urban centres (Athens and Thessaloniki) and over the continental and maritime areas south of Athens which are under the influence of the urban plume.     

A Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Urban and Regional Scales: Application for High-Ozone Episode in Taiwan

A nested air quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS) has been developed to investigate the various processes that govern the loading of chemical species and anthropogenic aerosols at various scales of atmospheric motions in urban and regional scales. The model employs flexible horizontal grid resolution with multiple multi-level nested grids with options for one-way and two-way nesting procedures in a spherical and terrain-following coordinate. The NAQPMS is driven using meteorological fields from the NCAR/Penn State Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Hourly pollutant levels of 71 stations covering Taiwan are used to evaluate the modeling system. Case simulation of a high-ozone episode occurred during April 13–15 1999 shows that the technique of the model nesting is capable of affording more realistic temporal and spatial structures of concentration fields, processes and precursors.     

Ozone Biomonitoring with Bel-W3 Tobacco Plants in the City of Valencia (Spain)

A biomonitoring study using the ozone-sensitive bioindicator plant Nicotiana tabacum cv. Bel-W3 was conducted in the city of Valencia (eastern Spain) and surrounding areas in 2002. Plants were exposed to ambient air at seven sites, including four traffic-exposed urban sites, a large urban garden and a suburban and a rural station, for six consecutive 2-week periods using highly standardised methods. Foliar injury was registered at all stations in at least one of the exposure periods. The urban stations submitted to intense traffic showed lower ozone injury than the less traffic-exposed stations. Strong changes in the intensity of ozone injury were observed for the different exposure periods. Leaf injury was significantly related to both mean ozone values (24 and 12 h means) and cumulative exposure indices (AOT20, AOT40). However, correlation strength was moderate (r _s?=?0.39 to 0.58), suggesting that the plant response to ozone was modified by environmental factors. The use of sensitive bioindicators like tobacco Bel-W3 in cities provides complementary information to that of continuously operating air quality monitors, as the impact of ambient ozone levels is directly measured.     

北京市种鸡场平养密闭式鸡舍环境因素观测分析

本文通过对北京市种鸡场平养密闭舍1986年夏至1987年春环境因素观测分析,指出该舍内气流速度、气流方向、光照时间及光照度等基本符合鸡的生理要求;但夏季舍内呈现高温、高湿,冬季呈现低温、高湿有待改进。经研究提出措施是:夏季可采用湿帘降温,冬季可根据温、湿度、氨气浓度综合控制风机运转等。