基于CEEMD的LSTM和ARIMA模型干旱预测适用性研究 ——以新疆为例

干旱的频繁发生对农业生产和经济发展造成了不可忽视的危害，准确预测干旱的发生具有重要的现实意义。基于1960—2019年新疆气象站点的逐日降水量数据，计算1、3、6、9、12个月及24个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数。建立差分自回归移动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）、长短期记忆网络（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）、互补集合经验模态分解（Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,CEEMD）-ARIMA组合模型和CEEMD-LSTM组合模型。通过4种模型对多时间尺度SPI序列进行预测，确定各模型在干旱预测中的适用性。结果表明：（1）4种模型的预测精度均随时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高，在24个月时间尺度时达到最高；（2）CEEMD能够有效平稳时间序列，各时间尺度下，组合模型均达到了较高的预测精度，相较单一模型更适用于干旱预测；（3）4种模型预测结果精度由低到高分别为：LSTM、ARIMA、CEEMD-LSTM、CEEMD-ARIMA（决定系...     

多尺度标准化降水指数的ARIMA模型干旱预测研究

采用关中地区39 a的月平均降水量数据,计算了该地区不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)值,运用ARIMA模型对SPI序列进行分析建模,并进行12步预测。结果表明,ARIMA模型对所有时间尺度的SPI 3、6、9序列可进行精度在10%以下的1步预测,对SPI 12、24序列可进行平均精度在10%以下的9步预测,说明ARI-MA模型较适合SPI 3、6、9序列的短期预测,适合SPI 12、24序列的长期预测。     

效率系数和一致性指数及其在干旱预测精度评价中的应用

基于关中平原2003—2014年Aqua-MODIS数据的条件植被温度指数的干旱监测结果,引入效率系数和一致性指数对自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)模型和季节性ARIMA模型的预测精度进行了评价,并分析了其在干旱预测精度评价中的适用性。两种干旱预测模型的精度评价结果为ARIMA模型与季节性ARIMA模型的效率系数分别为-0.04与-4.27,一致性指数分别为0.40与0.37,表明ARIMA模型对干旱的预测精度高于季节性ARIMA模型,这与均方根误差、皮尔森相关系数及Kappa系数等的评价结果一致,且效率系数对不同干旱预测模型的预测性能的区分效果尤为显著,对干旱预测模型的精度评价比一致性指数更为合理。因此,效率系数更适合用于遥感干旱预测模型的精度评价。     

基于SPI/SPEI指数的东北地区多时间尺度干旱变化特征对比分析

利用东北地区(黑龙江、吉林、辽宁)1960—2014年90个气象台站的逐日地面观测数据(平均气温、降水量、日照时数、平均相对湿度、平均风速及平均水汽压),利用标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对比分析近55 a多时间尺度干旱变化特征及两指数的表征差异。(1)依据各气象台站年总降水量,可将东北地区分为5个子区,各分区年总降水量皆未表现出显著的长期趋势,但Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区年总潜在蒸散量分别呈现显著下降、上升趋势。(2)两指数在1个月(1 mo)尺度上围绕0值频繁波动,随时间尺度增加,形成干湿阶段持续期,其中干旱期持续时间较湿润期稍长。不同时间尺度二者评估旱涝结果总体相似,其中短时间尺度,SPI较SPEI易受降水影响,波动大。长时间尺度差距减小,但在判别程度上SPI较SPEI偏轻。在特殊干旱年1982年和1999年,SPI在降水量减少幅度较大地区或月份监测干旱能力下降。(3)SPI描述东北地区无旱及特旱发生频率时较SPEI高,中旱、重旱及湿润发生频率则相反。(4)在评估东北地区旱涝情况时SPEI指数较SPI指数适用性更好。     

基于SPI的陕西关中地区气象干旱时空特征分析

采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为研究干旱的指标,根据陕西关中地区30个气象站41 a的气象资料,在计算年、季和月不同时间尺度SPI的基础上,采用克里金插值法获取SPI空间栅格数据,分析关中地区气象干旱的时空特征.结果表明,总体上年均SPI呈下降趋势,气象干旱程度加剧.关中地区年内呈夏季气象干旱减少、秋季增加趋势,除6月...     

淮河流域气象干旱风险的区域特征分析

利用淮河流域30个气象观测站点1961~2013年的月降水数据,基于贝叶斯空间插值方法对其不同时间尺度(月、季和年)的标准化降水指数SPI进行空间插值,以评估淮河流域内河南、安徽、江苏、山东等片区近半个世纪以来的气象干旱风险与干旱演变趋势。结果显示:各片区的气象干旱情势呈现显著性差异,其中山东片干旱频次最高,但以轻旱事件居多;安徽片出现干旱的总频次最小,但极旱、重旱频次略高。河南片和山东片遭遇重旱的风险较高,安徽片和江苏片遭遇极旱的风险较高。就全流域来说,在三种时间尺度之中,季节尺度上的干旱风险最大、频次最高,表明季节性干旱可能对流域各个片区的影响都较大。然而,各片区的长序列干旱风险演变结果显示:多个片区年/季节尺度上的干旱事件呈现一定的下降趋势,但在月尺度上却呈现不显著增加趋势,说明未来在小尺度上的干旱风险有可能增大。     

华东地区干旱灾害时空演化特征研究

针对国内外现有干旱应用研究往往忽略所采用模型与方法对研究结果存在的影响这一研究缺陷。利用我国中东部地区42个气象监测站点1961-2011年的降水资料,选用SPI指数对比分析了1月、3月、6月、12月四个时间尺度下中东部地区代表站点和月份的时空演化特征。结果表明:(1)不同时间尺度下研究区轻、中、重度干旱出现的时间和概率差异较大,无明显变化规律,但在中度干旱代表站点呈现出总体趋势一致的情况;(2)不同时间尺度下研究区各等级干旱空间分异明显,在中度干旱代表月份呈现出随时间尺度扩大的突变特征,在轻度和重度干旱代表月份,均表现为1月时间尺度下各等级干旱范围变化较大,3月、6月和12月时间尺度下几乎零面积干旱的特征。文中研究在证实区域干旱时空演化特征会随着所选SPI指数时间尺度变化而改变的同时,也肯定了在今后干旱应用研究中开展评估方法本身稳定性和适用性分析的必要性与意义。     

基于EMD-GWO-LSTM模型的新疆标准化降水蒸散指数预测方法研究

干旱预测一直是干旱研究领域的重大挑战,提高干旱预测的准确性是解决干旱问题的关键。基于1961—2019年新疆34个气象站点月降水和月平均气温数据,计算得到标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI）,对新疆气象干湿变化进行分析,提出一种经验模态分解方法（empirical mode decomposition, EMD）-灰狼优化算法（grey wolf optimizer,GWO）-长短期神经网络（long short-term memory network,LSTM）的数据分解型干旱组合预测模型进行预测,并进行模型性能评价。结果表明：（1）干旱周期性变化整体呈现平稳且周期长的特点;（2）EMD能够有效优化数据的平稳性,GWO优化预测模型参数,组合模型的预测精度相较于单一预测模型有明显提高;（3）4个预测模型结果精度由高到低的排序为：EMD-GWO-LSTM、GWO-LSTM、GWO-支持向量回归（Support Vactor Regression,SVR）、LSTM,拟合优度分别为0.972、...     

基于SPI的近51a晋北地区旱涝变化及干旱事件时空特征研究

利用晋北地区1965-2015年逐月降水数据,计算不同尺度标准化降水指数(SPI),并结合游程理论,分析了晋北地区旱涝变化及不同时间尺度干旱事件时空演变特征。结果表明:晋北地区呈湿润化演变趋势,年SPI以0.0507/10a的速率递增,春、秋、冬季变湿,对年湿润化过程的贡献明显。就干旱事件而言,干旱持续时间、干旱程度和干旱强度均呈递减趋势,晋北地区干旱事件缺水状况有所缓解;1965年气象和农业干旱最严重,1999-2000年水文干旱最严重;河曲是农业和水文干旱的高发区,干旱化趋势也最为明显,五寨呈明显的湿润化趋势,其气象干旱最严重。     

渭河流域干旱指标空间分布研究

基于月降水数据,运用干旱指标研究渭河流域的干旱特征。以西安站为例,详细对比了Z指数与SPI计算结果的一致性和差异;分别采用1、3、6、9、12个月和24个月时间尺度SPI分析了该站历史旱涝状况及持续时间,并探讨了其季节旱涝特征。计算了渭河流域1995年11月不同时间尺度的SPI值,并绘制了相应的空间分布图。结果表明：多时间尺度SPI[WTBZ]能够反映出降水的分散情况,并给出降水量区间与干旱指标的对应关系,是进行旱涝监测和预报的一种有效手段;发生于1995年的渭河全流域干旱具有季节性和多年特征,干旱程度总体上由东南部向西北部递减。     

Relationship Between Production of the Phytotoxin Prehelminthosporol and Virulence in Isolates of the Plant Pathogenic Fungus Bipolaris sorokiniana

A gas chromatographic method was developed to quantify the phytotoxin prehelminthosporol, which is a sesquiterpene metabolite of the plant pathogen Bipolaris sorokiniana. The toxin was extracted from mycelium or culture filtrates, pre-cleaned using solid phase extraction, and analyzed by gas chromatography as a trimethylsilyl-derivative. The detection limit of the method was 5ngl^–1 (signal to noise ratio 4:1) which corresponds to ca. 15ng prehelminthosporol per mg dry weight of mycelium or 15ng prehelminthosporol per ml culture filtrate. The total amount of prehelminthosporol (mycelium plus culture filtrate) increased with cultivation time when examined in six isolates of B. sorokiniana after 6, 9, 12 and 15 days of incubation. The screening experiment of 17 isolates for prehelminthosporol production after 8 days of incubation revealed significant differences in the toxin production between the isolates. The isolates with low toxin production had lower virulence towards barley roots compared to those with higher production of the toxin. However, the virulence did not increase with prehelminthosporol level among the high producing isolates. Prehelminthosporol was also analyzed in a number of related Bipolaris and Drechslera species. In addition to B. sorokiniana, three out of six Bipolaris species (B. setariae, B. zeicola, B. victoriae) produced prehelminthosporol, which indicates that ability to produce prehelminthosporol is conserved among closely-related Bipolaris species.     

Monitoring of the winter populations of cereal aphids near Wageningen,the Netherlands,in 1982/1983

Cereal aphids on a wheat crop were sampled through the winter of 1982/1983 using both fixed and random quadrats.Sitobion avenae overwintered successfully anholocyclically although there was a substantial decline in the population of this species. No evidence for successful anholocyclic overwintering in other aphid species was found, althoughRhopalosiphum padi was seen to colonise the crop in early winter and was found until the end of December.Eggs ofR. padi onPrunus padus were observed through the winter. A steady decline in their numbers occurred. The overall survival rate of the 5385 eggs was c.30%.Eggs ofMetopolophium dirhodum onRosa spp. were also monitored. They also showed a steady decline in numbers through the winter. The overall survival rate of the 1360 eggs was c.34%.Egg hatch in bothR. padi andM. dirhodum was closely synchronised with bud burst of their host plant. For the latter species this resulted in egg hatch starting in January.Samenvatting In de winter van 1982/1983 werden de graanluizen in een tarwegewas regelmatig geteld in willekeurig en in van tevoren gekozen monstereenheden. Hoewel er een aanmerkelijke afname van de populatie vanSitobion avenae werd waargenomen, overwinterde deze soort toch anholocyclish. Er werden geen aanwijzingen gevonden dat de andere bladluissoorten anholocyclish overwinterden hoewel kolonies vanRhopalosiphum padi tot eind december werden waargenomen.De gehele winter werden eieren vanR. padi opPrunus padi aangetroffen, de aantallen ervan namen geleidelijk af; van de 5385 getelde eieren overleefde ongeveer 30%. Ook de aantallen eieren vanMetopolophium dirhodum opRosa spp. werden reglematig vastgesteld; ook hier werd een geleidelijke afname geconstateerd. Van de oorspronkelijk getelde 1360 eieren overleefde ongeveer 34%.Het uitkomen van de eieren vanR. padi enM. dirhodum viel nauw samen met het uitlopen van de knoppen van hun waardplant. VoorM. dirhodum betekende dit dat de eerste eieren al begin januari uitkwamen.     

Detection of the phytotoxin coronatine by ELISA and localization in infected plant tissue

Several pathovars of Pseudomonas syringae produce the phytotoxin coronatine (COR)in vitro, and the availability of purified toxin has facilitated development of immunological detection methods. A modified, indirect competitive ELISA using the COR-specific monoclonal antibody 11B8 was developed to detect COR in various host plants infected by P. syringae. The estimated detection limit for COR was 50 pg per well, and COR could be reliably quantified from 5 to 40 ng ml⁻¹. The subcellular localization of COR within infected tomato tissue was investigated using the COR-specific antibody MAb 8H3G2. Immunofluorescence microscopy and immunogold labelling showed that COR was present inside tomato cells and was associated with chloroplasts and particles of proteinase inhibitor I. Localization studies indicated that COR is mobile in infected plant tissue and can be detected in healthy tissue adjacent to the bacterial lesions.     

沉默转录因子OsERF7提高水稻对褐飞虱和白背飞虱的抗性

为了解植物中特有的转录因子乙烯响应因子(ethylene responsive factor,ERF)在植物诱导抗虫反应中的作用,通过克隆1个水稻ERF转录因子基因OsERF7,并结合分子生物学、反向遗传学及生物测定,探究其在水稻防御褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens和白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera为害过程中的作用。结果显示,机械损伤处理与褐飞虱产卵雌成虫为害均能在中后期诱导OsERF7的表达。沉默OsERF7能显著降低水稻上褐飞虱及白背飞虱卵的孵化率,并延长褐飞虱卵的发育历期;与野生型水稻相比,褐飞虱和白背飞虱在沉默突变体品系R1和R30上的卵孵化率分别只有野生型水稻上的62.5%～68.3%和68.0%～76.0%,褐飞虱卵的发育历期则延长0.37～0.45 d。沉默OsERF7不影响褐飞虱产卵雌成虫为害诱导的水稻防御相关信号分子—茉莉酸(JA)、水杨酸(SA)、乙烯(ET)和过氧化氢(H_2O_2)的含量。表明转录因子OsERF7作用于防御相关信号途径的下游,并且负调控水稻对褐飞虱和白背飞虱的抗性。     

Systemic toxicity of spinosad to the greenhouse whiteflyTrialeurodes vaporariorum and to the cotton leaf wormSpodoptera littoralis

When spinosad was administered at the stem base of tomato plants grown in rockwool, the main substrate used in greenhouses in northern Europe, it was taken up by the roots and transported to the leaves. Laboratory toxicity experiments showed that systemically applied spinosad, at doses as low as 2 mg active ingredient per plant, gave excellent control of nymphs of the greenhouse whiteflyTrialeurodes vaporariorum, but was less toxic to adults. The toxicity of spinosad on Homoptera has not been documented yet and a dose-response relationship was established. The persistence of toxicity was at least 22 days for whitefly nymphs. A dose-response relationship of systemically applied spinosad was also determined on third-instar larvae of the cotton leaf wormSpodoptera littoralis; a dose of 5 mg per plant consistently killed all larvae. The persistence of systemically applied spinosad reached up to 45 days after treatment. Systemically applied spinosad was harmless to the parasitic waspEncarsia formosa. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Nov. 29, 2005.     

Parasitoid community of the loreyi leaf wormMythimna (Acantholeucania) loreyi: Novel host-parasitoid associations and their efficiency in the eastern mediterranean region of Turkey

The loreyi leaf worm,Mythimna (Acantholeucania) loreyi Duponchel (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), is a pest of gramineous crops and causes significant economic damage to maize. In field surveys on maize to determine the parasitoid community and its impact on the pest in the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey, nine parasitoid species were found associated with immature stages ofM. loreyi: The hymenopteran (Braconidae and Ichneumonidae) parasitoidsCotesia (=Apanteles) ruficrus (Haliday),Chelonus oculator Panzer,Meteorus ictericus Nees,Hyposoter didymator (Thunberg),Sinophorus sp.; and the dipteran (Tachinidae) parasitoidsPseudogonia rufifrons Wiedeman,Exorista rossica Mesnil,Gonia picea (Robineau-Desvoidy) andLinnaemya vulpina (Fallen) — the last three recorded for the first time as parasitoids ofM. loreyi in Turkey.C. ruficrus was the dominant parasitoid species, being recovered from 38.5% of the larvae collected and was also the most prevalent species, existing in 91.0% of the fields in whichM. loreyi was found. Total parasitism levels achieved by braconid species was 41.4%, by ichneumonid parasitoids 4.8%, and by tachinid parasitoids 1.9%. In a separate field experiment, seasonal population fluctuations and natural efficiency ofC. ruficrus onM. loreyi were found to be 35.1% and 42.4%, respectively. Population levels ofC. ruficrus were closely related to fluctuations in the population ofM. loreyi, with parasitism ranging between 0 and 77.3% during the study. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Aug. 28, 2005.     

Pathogenic fungi involved in root rot of peas in the Netherlands and their physiological specialization

Research on root rot pathogens of peas in the Netherlands has confirmed the prevalence ofFusarium solani, F. oxysporum, Pythium spp.,Mycosphaerella pinodes andPhoma medicaginis var.pinodella. Aphanomyces euteiches andThielaviopsis basicola were identified for the first time as pea pathogens in the Netherlands. Other pathogens such asRhizoctonia solani andCylindrocarpon destructans were also found on diseased parts of roots. F. solani existed in different degrees of pathogenicity, and was sometimes highly specific to pea, dwarf bean of field bean, depending on the cropping history of the field.A. euteiches was specific to peas, whereasT. basicola showed some degree of physiological specialization.     

Tobacco rattle virus serotypes and associated nematode vector species of Trichodoridae in the bulb-growing areas in the Netherlands

Soil samples from the coastal bulb-growing areas in the provinces of North- and South-Holland and the North-East Polder in the Netherlands were examined for trichodorid nematodes and tobacco rattle virus (TRV) serotypes. At least one of a total of eight species of Trichodoridae, of whichParatrichodorus pachydermus was most prevalent, was found in 93% of the samples from the provinces of North- and South-Holland and TRV, including four serotypes, was obtained from 49% of these samples. In the North-East Polder one of three species of trichodorids, of whichP. teres occurred most frequently, was present in 72% of the samples, and TRV of one serotype was obtained from 28% of these samples. The TRV isolates recovered from these samples reacted serologically with one of four antisera to strains of TRV. Virus transmitted byP. pachydermus reacted to the PRN-, byTrichodorus viruliferus to the RQ-, byP. teres to the N5- and byT. similis, to the TS-antiserum, respectively.     

Xanthomonas campestris pv. populi,the causal agent of bark necrosis in poplar

A bacterium was isolated from superficial bark necroses on young poplars and its pathogenicity demonstrated by inoculation experiments. The organism was identified asXanthomonas campestris. Cross-inoculations showed that a previously undescribed pathovar was involved. It is suggested to designate this organismX. campestris pv.populi.Samenvatting Uit een oppervlakkige bastnecrose bij jonge populieren werd massaal een bepaalde bacterie geïsoleerd. Met deze bacterie werden gezonde populieren in het veld geïnoculeerd via verwonding van de bast. Als gevolg van de inoculaties ontwikkelden zich bij ongeveer 40% van de geïnoculeerde bomen hetzelfde type bastnecrosen, terwijl bij de controleplanten geen enkele reactie optrad. Uit de kunstmatig verkregen necrosen werd dezelfde bacterie geïsoleerd.Identificatie met biochemische en serologische methoden toonde aan dat de bacterieXanthomonas campestris was.Vervolgens werden in de kas kruisinoculaties uitgevoerd met verschillende xanthomonaden op populier, wilg, kool en geranium. DeX. campestris isolaten uit populier tastten behalve populier ook wilg aan. De andere gebruikte stammen waren waardplant-specifiek, al bleven sommigen ervan minstens acht maanden in leven in een niet-waardplant, evenwel zonder symptomen te veroorzaken. Geconcludeerd wordt, dat de bastnecrosen zijn veroorzaakt door een nog niet beschreven pathovar vanX. campestris. Voorgesteld wordt om deze bacterieXanthomonas campestris pv.populi te noemen.     

Occurrence of pepper yellow vein in the Netherlands

Samenvatting Het verschijnsel van geelnervigheid bij paprika (Capsicum annuum) kon door verenting en met de schimmelOlpidium brassicae worden overgebracht. Hierdoor bleek de ziekte identiek te zijn met een eerder in Engeland gemelde ziekte. Door inoculatie met zoösporen of rustsporen vanO. brassicae werden ook symptomen verkregen inC. baccatum, C. chacoense enC. frutescens. S. villosum bleek een waardplant te zijn voor het geelnervigheidsagens, waarbij zwakke nerfchlorosen werden waargenomen.Seconded to the Glasshouse Crops Research Station, P.O. Box 8, 2670 AA Naaldwijk, the Netherlands.