Neural systems responding to degrees of uncertainty in human decision-making

Much is known about how people make decisions under varying levels of probability (risk). Less is known about the neural basis of decision-making when probabilities are uncertain because of missing information (ambiguity). In decision theory, ambiguity about probabilities should not affect choices. Using functional brain imaging, we show that the level of ambiguity in choices correlates positively with activation in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, and negatively with a striatal system. Moreover, striatal activity correlates positively with expected reward. Neurological subjects with orbitofrontal lesions were insensitive to the level of ambiguity and risk in behavioral choices. These data suggest a general neural circuit responding to degrees of uncertainty, contrary to decision theory.     

BOLD responses reflecting dopaminergic signals in the human ventral tegmental area

Current theories hypothesize that dopamine neuronal firing encodes reward prediction errors. Although studies in nonhuman species provide direct support for this theory, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies in humans have focused on brain areas targeted by dopamine neurons [ventral striatum (VStr)] rather than on brainstem dopaminergic nuclei [ventral tegmental area (VTA) and substantia nigra]. We used fMRI tailored to directly image the brainstem. When primary rewards were used in an experiment, the VTA blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response reflected a positive reward prediction error, whereas the VStr encoded positive and negative reward prediction errors. When monetary gains and losses were used, VTA BOLD responses reflected positive reward prediction errors modulated by the probability of winning. We detected no significant VTA BOLD response to nonrewarding events.     

Adaptive coding of reward value by dopamine neurons

It is important for animals to estimate the value of rewards as accurately as possible. Because the number of potential reward values is very large, it is necessary that the brain's limited resources be allocated so as to discriminate better among more likely reward outcomes at the expense of less likely outcomes. We found that midbrain dopamine neurons rapidly adapted to the information provided by reward-predicting stimuli. Responses shifted relative to the expected reward value, and the gain adjusted to the variance of reward value. In this way, dopamine neurons maintained their reward sensitivity over a large range of reward values.     

Relation between obesity and blunted striatal response to food is moderated by TaqIA A1 allele

The dorsal striatum plays a role in consummatory food reward, and striatal dopamine receptors are reduced in obese individuals, relative to lean individuals, which suggests that the striatum and dopaminergic signaling in the striatum may contribute to the development of obesity. Thus, we tested whether striatal activation in response to food intake is related to current and future increases in body mass and whether these relations are moderated by the presence of the A1 allele of the TaqIA restriction fragment length polymorphism, which is associated with dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) gene binding in the striatum and compromised striatal dopamine signaling. Cross-sectional and prospective data from two functional magnetic resonance imaging studies support these hypotheses, which implies that individuals may overeat to compensate for a hypofunctioning dorsal striatum, particularly those with genetic polymorphisms thought to attenuate dopamine signaling in this region.     

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.     

Uniform inhibition of dopamine neurons in the ventral tegmental area by aversive stimuli

Dopamine neurons play a key role in reward-related behaviors. Reward coding theories predict that dopamine neurons will be inhibited by or will not respond to aversive stimuli. Paradoxically, between 3 and 49% of presumed dopamine neurons are excited by aversive stimuli. We found that, in the ventral tegmental area of anesthetized rats, the population of presumed dopamine neurons that are excited by aversive stimuli is actually not dopaminergic. The identified dopamine neurons were inhibited by the aversive stimulus. These findings suggest that dopamine neurons are specifically excited by reward and that a population of nondopamine neurons is excited by aversive stimuli.     

Role of noradrenergic signaling by the nucleus tractus solitarius in mediating opiate reward

Norepinephrine (NE) is widely implicated in opiate withdrawal, but much less is known about its role in opiate-induced locomotion and reward. In mice lacking dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DBH), an enzyme critical for NE synthesis, we found that NE was necessary for morphine-induced conditioned place preference (CPP; a measure of reward) and locomotion. These deficits were rescued by systemic NE restoration. Viral restoration of DBH expression in the nucleus tractus solitarius, but not in the locus coeruleus, restored CPP for morphine. Morphine-induced locomotion was partially restored by DBH expression in either brain region. These data suggest that NE signaling by the nucleus tractus solitarius is necessary for morphine reward.     

Reward-predictive cues enhance excitatory synaptic strength onto midbrain dopamine neurons

Using sensory information for the prediction of future events is essential for survival. Midbrain dopamine neurons are activated by environmental cues that predict rewards, but the cellular mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon remain elusive. We used in vivo voltammetry and in vitro patch-clamp electrophysiology to show that both dopamine release to reward predictive cues and enhanced synaptic strength onto dopamine neurons develop over the course of cue-reward learning. Increased synaptic strength was not observed after stable behavioral responding. Thus, enhanced synaptic strength onto dopamine neurons may act to facilitate the transformation of neutral environmental stimuli to salient reward-predictive cues.     

青少年奖赏加工过程:一项事件相关电位研究

奖赏对于人类的存在和发展具有很重要的意义,对奖赏加工过程的研究有助于我们从不同的视角诠释青少年风险行为形成的原因.通过线索数字的变化分析被试对奖赏结果的预期程度,研究青少年奖赏加工过程的预期阶段与结果体验阶段的认知和神经电生理过程,结果表明:青少年在面对不同预期线索刺激时,他们的唤醒度和动机水平都较高,对结果预期反应的准备活动也较强,并且,在结果评估的反馈负波上,青少年与成人均未表现出显著性差异,而对结果信息刺激,青少年表现出较高的情绪体验,同时也说明青少年认知调控能力还未发展成熟.     

Color-discrimination performance of pigeons: effects of reward

Performance of two pigeons given tasks in discriminating colors was examined on trials before and after they had occasionally received rewards for pecking when exposed to light of specific wavelengths. After a reward, the probability that the birds would respond to light svtimuli that were never rewarded was higher than before the reward was given, but paradoxically the birds showed no general decline in their ability to differentiate between stimuli at wavelengths 1 millimicron apart.     

Animal choice behavior and the evolution of cognitive architecture

Animals process sensory information according to specific computational rules and, subsequently, form representations of their environments that form the basis for decisions and choices. The specific computational rules used by organisms will often be evolutionarily adaptive by generating higher probabilities of survival, reproduction, and resource acquisition. Experiments with enclosed colonies of bumblebees constrained to foraging on artificial flowers suggest that the bumblebee's cognitive architecture is designed to efficiently exploit floral resources from spatially structured environments given limits on memory and the neuronal processing of information. A non-linear relationship between the biomechanics of nectar extraction and rates of net energetic gain by individual bees may account for sensitivities to both the arithmetic mean and variance in reward distributions in flowers. Heuristic rules that lead to efficient resource exploitation may also lead to subjective misperception of likelihoods. Subjective probability formation may then be viewed as a problem in pattern recognition subject to specific sampling schemes and memory constraints.     

Cell type-specific loss of BDNF signaling mimics optogenetic control of cocaine reward

The nucleus accumbens is a key mediator of cocaine reward, but the distinct roles of the two subpopulations of nucleus accumbens projection neurons, those expressing dopamine D1 versus D2 receptors, are poorly understood. We show that deletion of TrkB, the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) receptor, selectively from D1+ or D2+ neurons oppositely affects cocaine reward. Because loss of TrkB in D2+ neurons increases their neuronal excitability, we next used optogenetic tools to control selectively the firing rate of D1+ and D2+ nucleus accumbens neurons and studied consequent effects on cocaine reward. Activation of D2+ neurons, mimicking the loss of TrkB, suppresses cocaine reward, with opposite effects induced by activation of D1+ neurons. These results provide insight into the molecular control of D1+ and D2+ neuronal activity as well as the circuit-level contribution of these cell types to cocaine reward.     

Neuroleptic-induced "anhedonia" in rats: pimozide blocks reward quality of food

The dopamine receptor blocker pimozide attenuated lever-pressing and running for food reward in hungry rats. In each case the characteristic behavior of pimozide-treated rats was the same as that of undrugged rats when reward was simply withheld. Drug-induced performance difficulties were ruled out by the presence of periods of normal responding in drug-treated animals. Pimozide appears to selectively blunt the rewarding impact of food and other hedonic stimuli.     

Addiction as a computational process gone awry

Addictive drugs have been hypothesized to access the same neurophysiological mechanisms as natural learning systems. These natural learning systems can be modeled through temporal-difference reinforcement learning (TDRL), which requires a reward-error signal that has been hypothesized to be carried by dopamine. TDRL learns to predict reward by driving that reward-error signal to zero. By adding a noncompensable drug-induced dopamine increase to a TDRL model, a computational model of addiction is constructed that over-selects actions leading to drug receipt. The model provides an explanation for important aspects of the addiction literature and provides a theoretic view-point with which to address other aspects.     

Representation of action-specific reward values in the striatum

The estimation of the reward an action will yield is critical in decision-making. To elucidate the role of the basal ganglia in this process, we recorded striatal neurons of monkeys who chose between left and right handle turns, based on the estimated reward probabilities of the actions. During a delay period before the choices, the activity of more than one-third of striatal projection neurons was selective to the values of one of the two actions. Fewer neurons were tuned to relative values or action choice. These results suggest representation of action values in the striatum, which can guide action selection in the basal ganglia circuit.     

农户小额信贷违约风险防范机制的博弈分析

分析了小额信贷运作过程中的违约风险存在的成因,主要是小额信贷管理水平低,缺失规范制度;小额信贷业务缺乏风险分担机制;不健全的征信制度导致评级失真;借款人信用不确定引致违约风险。分别建立了静态的和动态的博弈模型,对小额信贷违约风险防范机制进行了分析,得出结论:只要能保证农户违约所产生不良信用记录的潜在损失N、小额信贷机构追讨成功的概率Q、小额信贷发放机构追讨成功会对农户施加惩罚的成本S都增大,在小额信贷运作过程中,就必须要增加一种约束机制———可置信的战略威胁。并提出了相应的对策建议:健全关于小额信贷信用风险管理的法律法规和信用奖惩机制;加强信贷员在小额信贷实践中应有作用的发挥;广泛推行农村"小组联保贷款"制度。     

英语文字的概率表达

对于事件发生的概率表征形式主要可分为数字表征和文字表征.本文探讨了英文文字概率表达研究的意义和兴起,并回顾了英语文字概率表达在这半个世纪里的研究内容、研究方法及研究发现:(1)文字概率的数值转化,(2)文字概率表征的语义信息和(3)概率表征的使用偏好.最后探讨了汉语文字概率表达的意义和前景.     

Target cell-dependent normalization of transmitter release at neocortical synapses

The efficacy and short-term modification of neocortical synaptic connections vary with the type of target neuron. We investigated presynaptic Ca2+ and release probability at single synaptic contacts between pairs of neurons in layer 2/3 of the rat neocortex. The amplitude of Ca2+ signals in boutons of pyramids contacting bitufted or multipolar interneurons or other pyramids was dependent on the target cell type. Optical quantal analysis at single synaptic contacts suggested that release probabilities are also target cell-specific. Both the Ca2+ signal and the release probability of different boutons of a pyramid contacting the same target cell varied little. We propose that the mechanisms that regulate the functional properties of boutons of a pyramid normalize the presynaptic Ca2+ influx and release probability for all those boutons that innervate the same target cell.     

水肥互作对玉米生长发育及产量的影响

在人工模拟条件下,采用“311-B”D饱和最优设计,探讨了水肥交互作用对玉米株高、茎基宽和产量的影响。结果表明：玉米植株的株高与氮肥、灌水量、磷肥用量都呈正相关,其中氮肥用量影响最大,灌水量次之,磷肥用量影响最小;但氮肥用量与灌水量的交互、氮肥和磷肥的交互与株高呈负相关。与氮肥用量和灌水量的平方项呈负相关,说明过量的氮肥或灌水量都对植株的株高呈负效应。同样,玉米的茎基宽与氮肥用量、灌水量、磷肥用量呈正相关。其中氮肥对茎基宽的影响最为明显,灌水量次之,磷肥用量的影响最小。在本试验中,氮肥用量与灌水量的交互、磷肥和灌水量的交互与茎基宽呈正相关。氮肥、磷肥和灌水量对玉米产量均具有正效应,且符合报酬递减定律,过量施肥、灌水会引起明显的负效应,造成玉米减产。     

基于马尔柯夫理论的森林火灾趋势预测

利用马尔柯夫理论预测森林火灾发生的频数和强度趋势。结果表明,2007年以后,研究区域森林火灾发生频数等级主要是A级,即森林火灾发生次数在10次以下,其发生概率为57%以上,当经过足够多步转移以后其固定概率为(0.583 0.166 0.166 0.085)。森林火灾发生强度的4个级别概率较接近,当经过足够多步转移后其固定概率为(0.182 0.364 0.272 0.182)。