The Potential Economic Impact of an Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Canada

The possibility of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease is of concern to Canada's livestock industry due to the resulting economic consequences. The primary economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak would arise from the trade embargo placed on Canadian exports of animals and animal products to countries free of the disease. Agriculture Canada's Food and Agriculture Regional Model was used to estimate the economic impact of such a trade embargo. Two scenarios, a small and large outbreak, were simulated over a five year period (1986-90). The results indicate that even a small outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease would have serious economic consequences for the livestock sector with farm cash receipts declining by $2 billion. The largest impact would be on the pork sector followed by the beef sector.     

Application of DIVA vaccines and their companion diagnostic tests to foreign animal disease eradication

The risk of foreign animal disease introduction continues to exist despite Canada's strict regulations concerning the importation of animals and animal products. Given the rapidity with which these diseases can spread, especially in areas with dense livestock populations, eradication efforts which rely solely on quarantine and stamping-out measures can present a formidable undertaking. This, combined with growing economic and ethical considerations, has led to renewed interest in the use of vaccination as a tool in controlling foreign animal disease outbreaks. Vaccination has effects at the individual and population levels. Efficacious vaccines reduce or prevent clinical signs without necessarily preventing virus replication. They may also increase the dose of virus needed to establish an infection and/or reduce the level and duration of virus shedding following infection. Vaccine effectiveness within a population is a function of its ability to reduce virus transmission. Transmission is best described by the reproductive ratio, R, which is defined as the average number of new infections caused by one infectious individual. By helping to reduce the R-value below 1, vaccination can be an effective adjunct in abbreviating an outbreak. Nevertheless, vaccination can also complicate serological surveillance activities that follow eradication, if the antibody response induced by vaccination is indistinguishable from that which follows infection. This disadvantage can be overcome by the use of DIVA vaccines and their companion diagnostic tests. The term DIVA (differentiating infected from vaccinated individuals) was coined in 1999 by J. T. van Oirschot of the Central Veterinary Institute, in The Netherlands. It is now generally used as an acronym for 'differentiating infected from vaccinated animals'. The term was originally applied to the use of marker vaccines, which are based on deletion mutants of wild-type microbes, in conjunction with a differentiating diagnostic test. The DIVA strategy has been extended to include subunit and killed whole-virus vaccines. This system makes possible the mass vaccination of a susceptible animal population without compromising the serological identification of convalescent individuals. The DIVA approach has been applied successfully to pseudorabies and avian influenza eradication, and has been proposed for use in foot-and-mouth disease and classical swine fever eradication campaigns. This paper will survey current vaccine technology, the host immune response, and companion diagnostic tests that are available for pseudorabies, foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever and avian influenza.     

Application of subjective methods to the determination of the likelihood and consequences of the entry of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand

New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade ;measured response programme subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate.     

Application of subjective methods to the determination of the likelihood and consequences of the entry of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand

New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade “measured response programme” subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate.     

Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia

Preparedness for an incursion of an exotic animal disease is of key importance to government, industry, producers and the Australian community. An important aspect of Australia's preparedness for a possible incursion of foot-and-mouth disease is investigation into the likely effectiveness and cost-efficiency of eradication strategies when applied to different regional outbreak scenarios. Disease modelling is a tool that can be used to study diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease to better understand potential disease spread and control under different conditions. The Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry has been involved with epidemiologic simulation modelling for more than 10 years, and has developed a sophisticated spatial model for foot-and-mouth disease (AusSpread) that operates within a geographic information system framework. The model accommodates real farm boundary or point-location data, as well as synthesised data based on agricultural census and land use information. The model also allows for interactions between herds or flocks of different animal species and production type, and considers the role that such interactions are likely to play in the epidemiology of a regional outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The user can choose mitigations and eradication strategies from those that are currently described in Australia's veterinary emergency plan. The model also allows the user to evaluate the impact of constraints on the availability of resources for mitigations or eradication measures. Outputs include a range of maps and tabulated outbreak statistics describing the geographic extent of the outbreak and its duration, the numbers of affected, slaughtered, and, as relevant, vaccinated herds or flocks, and the cost of control and eradication. Cost-related outputs are based on budgets of the value of stock and the cost of mitigations, each of which can be varied by the user. These outputs are a valuable resource to assist with policy development and disease management.     

The epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Saskatchewan, Canada, 1951-1952.

The epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Saskatchewan in 1951 and 1952 was studied in order to determine origins of outbreaks and methods of spread. The epidemic was initially considered to be vesicular stomatitis and foot-and-mouth disease was not recognized until February 1952, three months after the initial infection. The reports prepared at that time were reviewed in order to obtain details of the numbers of animals infected and the source and date of infection for the outbreaks. Methods of spread were rated according to their likelihood. The introduction of infection by an immigrant through his clothes as well as by sausage was possible. The sequence of events from the first outbreak to the spread from a feedlot/packing plant and from a dairy farm, which failed to report the disease, were clarified. Methods of spread included movement of animals, animal products and people and the airborne route. Milk delivery and artificial insemination did not result in spread of infection. The quarantine of affected farms reduced spread by animals and deterred visits by people. The original diagnosis of vesicular stomatitis was due to misinterpretation of a lesion in an inoculated horse. Laboratory tests established the presence of foot-and-mouth disease. The limited extent of the epidemic, despite the delay in diagnosis, is attributed to (i) the low density of cattle, (ii) few infected pigs and hence less airborne virus and (iii) absence of waste food feeding and milk collection in addition to the limited quarantine imposed.     

Foreign animal disease outbreaks, the animal welfare implications for Canada: risks apparent from international experience

Any outbreak of an Office International des Epizooties List A disease, such as classical swine fever or foot and mouth disease, has severe consequences for animal welfare, livestock production, exports of animals and animal products, and the environment. The public concern with the animal welfare effects of methods of disease eradication that result in the destruction of large numbers of uninfected animals has initiated a reconsideration of disease eradication policy in Europe. In many recent List A disease epizootics, the financial cost of addressing animal welfare concerns in healthy animals has greatly exceeded the cost of stamping out disease in infected herds. In the event of a similar incursion in Canada, the number of animals subject to welfare slaughter will be far greater than the number of infected animals killed. Current national disease eradication plans in Canada do not address the animal welfare component of disease control methods.     

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease – Model intercomparison

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route.A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate and susceptibility to airborne infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. All of the atmospheric dispersion models compared at the Workshop can be used to assess windborne spread of FMDV and provide scientific advice to those responsible for making control and eradication decisions in the event of an outbreak of disease.     

On-farm eradication of foot-and-mouth disease as an alternative to mass culling

A control and eradication programme for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was initiated on a 1500-sow farm in Asia as an alternative to mass culling. The programme was based on mass vaccination and exposure to FMD virus to ensure the development of effective immunity throughout the population. Pigs are not long-term carriers of FMD virus and it should be eliminated by 21 days after infection. Entry of breeding stock was temporarily halted and the sow herd was partially depopulated in order to create a buffer between the infected and uninfected animals. After exposure to the virus and partial depopulation, the virus was eliminated through unidirectional pig flow and strict all-in/all-out procedures, and by thorough cleaning and disinfection of the buildings. Twelve months after the initial outbreak, the eradication plan was completed and successful. In parallel with the eradication programme, a small-scale isolated weaning project was carried out with the sow population that was moved out of the affected farm; 708 piglets were weaned to a separate facility 300 m away. No clinical signs of FMD were observed and the piglets remained serologically negative.     

Descriptive summary of an outbreak of porcine post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS ) in New Zealand

CASE HISTORY: Investigations were conducted to determine the cause of an acute, multi-farm outbreak of porcine respiratory disease that included diarrhoea and subsequent loss of body condition in affected pigs. A definition for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) including both clinical and pathological features, previously developed for the pig industry in New Zealand, was applied to the current outbreak. In addition to self-reporting by owners of affected farms, local veterinarians, disease and epidemiology consultants, and animal health officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) were involved in conducting farm visits and submission of diagnostic specimens. CLINICAL FINDINGS AND DIAGNOSIS: Pathogens known to be endemic in the pig industry in New Zealand as well as likely exotic diseases were excluded as causative agents of the outbreak. Clinical signs including dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition were consistent with the New Zealand case definition for PMWS. Interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary oedema, generalised lymph-node enlargement, and presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) inclusion bodies were consistently identified in affected pigs. Classical swine fever virus (CSFv), Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), and Influenza virus were ruled out, using molecular and traditional virological techniques. Spread of the disease between farms was hypothesised to be facilitated by locally migrating flocks of black-backed seagulls. The original source of the disease incursion was not identified. DIAGNOSIS: Based on the consistent presence of circovirus-associated lesions in lymphoid tissues in combination with generalised enlargement of lymph nodes, histiocytic interstitial pneumonia, clinical wasting, and poor response to antibiotic therapy, a diagnosis of PMWS was made. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PMWS should be considered in the differential diagnoses of sudden onset of respiratory dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition in young pigs in New Zealand pig herds.     

Advance on Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an acute,febrile and highly contagious animal disease caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV),and has been recognized as the most important constraint to international trade in animals and animal products.An outstanding feature for FMDV infection is that the FMDV infected animals may remain as a carrier state,some of the animals exposed to FMDV may have a long term asymptomatic infection.This article will review the advance of FMDV in the following aspects,epidemiology,etiology and pathogenesis.     

The application of biotechnology to the control of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

Biotechnology, which less than 10 years ago was heralded as an alternative to epidemiology in providing the answers to the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), has not fulfilled its initial promise. Instead it is now complementing epidemiology by providing extremely sensitive and specific tools for identifying and characterizing strains of FMD virus in diagnostic material. Considerable advances in our understanding of the evolution of the virus in different field situations has been made possible by the development and application of polymerase chain reaction and nucleotide sequencing techniques. The individual genes of FMD virus can now be cloned into a number of vectors and separately expressed and studied in isolation from the other viral proteins. Biotechnology has not provided a safe and effective vaccine to replace the conventional tissue culture derived vaccine that would have made FMD a disease of the past. FMD remains the most economically significant animal disease having a major influence on the international trade of animals and their products. The world distribution of FMD has remained almost unchanged over the last 20 years and a balance has been maintained between improved surveillance and diagnostic technology and the ever increasing legal and illegal international movement of animals and reduction in veterinary resources. Research continues on peptide, recombinant and vector expressed virus protein vaccines which could at any time yield a breakthrough, not only for FMD control but, using similar technology, for control of other viral diseases, human and animal. Until this occurs, control and eradication of FMD still relies on classical epidemiological techniques, making use of new biotechnological methods.     

口蹄疫病毒研究进展

口蹄疫(foot-and-mouth disease,FMD)是由口蹄疫病毒(foot-and-mouth disease virus,FMDV)引起的一种急性、热性、高度接触传染性动物疫病,是全球范围内家畜及其产品贸易最大的羁绊。FMDV通过逃避宿主的免疫监视建立持续性感染,使患畜持续向外界排毒,成为传染源。作者查阅了近几年FMDV的国内外研究进展,对其流行病学、病原学及致病机理进行了概述。     

Foot-and-mouth disease eradication efforts in the Republic of Korea

On March 20, 2000, a suspected vesicular disease in cattle was reported to the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service (NVRQS) of the Republic of Korea. This represented the index case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, which spread through several provinces. The Republic of Korea had been free of FMD for 66 years prior to the reintroduction of the virus and had recently suspended imports of pork and pork products from neighboring Japan owing to a reported FMD outbreak in that country. The Korean outbreak was ultimately controlled through the combination of preemptive slaughter, animal movement restrictions, and a strategy of ring vaccination. The purpose of this paper is to review the current FMD situation in Korea in the aftermath of its 2000 epizootic and how it may affect future efforts to eradicate or reduce risk of reintroduction of the disease into Korea.     

Foot-and-mouth disease: the risk for Great Britain after 1992.

Mass annual vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease, previously applied by eight member states in the European Community (EC), was progressively phased out during 1990-91. The other four member states (the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Republic of Ireland and Greece) either never have vaccinated or ceased to do so several years ago. The EC should increase its international competitiveness if it maintains its present foot-and-mouth disease-free, non-vaccinating status. Freedom from disease and a harmonised disease control policy will also permit unrestricted movement of livestock and animal products throughout the EC when the single market is completed in 1992. Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease on continental Europe has greatly reduced the number of outbreaks during the last 30 years and this reduction has been of indirect benefit to Great Britain. However, the cessation of vaccination will result in a higher proportion of fully susceptible cattle and in the event of outbreaks will increase the likelihood of the rapid dissemination of virus and increase the risk that the infection will enter Great Britain. The main risks of entry are likely to be associated with live animals in which the disease can be mild or inapparent, ie, sheep and goats, and with airborne virus originating from pigs on the nearby continent especially in Brittany and the Benelux countries where they are present in very high densities.     

Foot-and-mouth disease: an assessment of the risks facing New Zealand

Although New Zealand has never had a case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), the threat that this disease poses to the economy of this country has long been recognised. The unprecedented global spread of FMD caused by the type-O PanAsia strain, culminating in the outbreak that occurred in the United Kingdom in early 2001, has refocussed the concerns of biosecurity agencies worldwide. The 3 lines of defence against exotic disease incursions in this country are border controls, surveillance and incursion response capability. This article reviews the pathogenesis, virus survival, routes of infection and methods of spread of FMD virus, and in the light of recent international developments, presents a summary of the major risks of introduction and dissemination of FMD virus and the risk-management measures in place for this country.     

Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand

AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic. RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year. CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.     

Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand

AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak.

METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic.

RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year.

CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.     

抗口蹄疫病毒策略研究进展

口蹄疫是偶蹄动物的一种烈性传染病,可使世界范围内的畜牧业遭受严重的经济损失。该病的防控方法主要包括扑杀、销毁病畜及其同群动物,对疫区内其它易感畜群和受威胁区的易感动物立即紧急接种对应型号的口蹄疫疫苗,除此之外,还需要有一些新的紧急抗病毒策略来弥补疫苗的不足,从而为易感动物及未感染动物提供及时的保护,作者着重综述了抗口蹄疫病毒策略的研究进展,主要包括IFN的应用、反义技术的应用、RNA干扰技术的应用三方面内容。     

Review article: actual danger to the domestic animal populations of exotic animal epidemics

Most of the formerly important virus diseases like foot-and-mouth disease and enzootic bovine leukosis were eradicated in the Federal Republic of Germany during the recent decades. However, there is a continuous menace of our domestic animal population by exotic virus epidemics related to the concentration of animals in large farms, the intensified international trade of animals and their meat or milk products, and the introduction of a common European market starting in 1992. This view is emphasized by the recent outbreaks of African horse sickness in Spain in 1987/1988. In this article, foot-and-mouth disease and African horse sickness will be described as potentially dangerous virus epidemics. Furthermore, the occurrence of formerly unknown diseases has to be considered. Haemorrhagic disease of rabbits which was recently introduced in Germany is an example of new developments in virus epidemics. These three diseases, their epidemiology and the biology of the corresponding viruses will be discussed in detail.