我国贫困问题的动态性——基于生存模型的新证据

理解贫困的本质、短期性、长期性特征,以及贫困动态性的决定因素依旧是我国精准扶贫问题的关键。基于浙江、湖北、云南三省的微观调研面板数据,运用马尔可夫转移矩阵分析了农户在贫困和非贫困的转变概率;利用危害分析方法研究农户脱离贫困线、进入贫困线以及重新进入贫困线的概率及主要影响因素。结果表明,基于相对贫困线划分,农户脱离贫困线以及进入贫困线的概率与贫困时间成反比;非工作的家庭成员个数、受教育年限、家庭生产经营类型以及村级特征变量,均对农户脱离贫困线、进入贫困线以及重新进入贫困线的概率有重要影响;在贫困问题的动态性方面,三个省份具有明显的跨时空特征。因此,建立健全保险制度、提高农产品市场透明度、促进农业部门整合等一些旨在减少收入差距的短期调控性政策,对农户脱离贫困状态以及避免农户重新进入贫困状态具有重要作用。     

The varieties of sustainability

Each of four sections in this paper sketches the philosophical problems associated with a different dimension of sustainability. The untitled introductory section surveys the oft-noted discrepancies between different notions of sustainability, and notes that one element of the ambiguity relates to the different points of view taken by a participant in a system and a detached observer of the system. The second section, Sustainability as a System Describing Concept, examines epistemological puzzles that arise when one attempts to assess the truth or falsity of claims that attribute sustainability or non-sustainability. In particular, such claims generally presume bounded systems, but boundary conditions are value-laden. The third section, Sustainability as a Goal Prescribing Concept, examines puzzles that arise in attempting to define sustainability in normative terms. In particular, the question of whether sustainability is an intrinsic or instrumental value is examined. The final section, Sustainability and Bliss, offers an analysis of the moral responsibilities that human beings have, given the fact that knowledge of conditions for achieving sustainability can never be complete.Paul Thompson was President of the Agriculture, Food, and Human Values Society during 1990 and 1991. He now directs the Center for Biotechnology Policy and Ethics, Institute of Biosciences and Technology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX. He is also Professor of Philosophy and of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M. His bookThe Ethics of Aid and Trade (Cambridge: 1992, Cambridge U. Press) reviews the alleged conflict of interest between U. S. farmers and efforts that would increase the productivity of agriculture in developing countries.     

返贫风险及脱贫成果巩固的区域异质性分析

通过对2013-2019年14个片区贫困广度、贫困深度、贫困强度的计算,对连片特困地区自确立以来的脱贫成果与返贫风险进行了宏观判断.结果表明,其整体减贫成效显著,但演进速度与进程存在时空差异,脱贫效果与返贫风险呈现区域异质性.脱贫成果巩固困难、返贫风险最大的是新疆南疆三地州、六盘山区、滇西边境山区以及乌蒙山区.返贫风险...     

生态脆弱区贫困与生态环境的博弈分析

生态脆弱区既是生态环境破坏最典型、最强烈的区域,也是贫困问题最集中的区域。然而,实践中试图摆脱"贫困陷阱"的成功案例并不多见。其中一个重要原因是鲜有协同生态保护与扶贫的研究,尤其是忽视了不同利益主体的相互作用过程与机制。从博弈论的视角,探讨生态脆弱区不同利益主体的两组核心博弈,即政府与民众以及政府与企业的博弈。研究发现,扶贫与生态环境保护相互作用过程事实上就是协调不同利益主体的目标与利益的博弈过程,博弈结果一定程度上决定了扶贫的效果以及生态环境保护的效应。研究为深入理解贫困与生态环境相互作用的过程与机制提供一个理论分析框架,并为中国生态脆弱区可持续发展实践提供有益借鉴。     

我国农户贫困持续性及决定因素分析——基于相对和绝对贫困线的再审视

我国的扶贫战略自改革开放以来获得了巨大成功,农户贫困率降低十分显著,但随着扶贫的深入,消除剩余贫困的难度也不断增大。基于浙江、湖北、云南三省1 362户农户持续10年的微观调研面板数据,综合采用统计指标和计量模型方法,分析了我国农户贫困的持续性特征及其主要影响因素。研究表明,虽然我国农户贫困主要是暂时性的,但随着贫困标准的提高,持续性贫困人口比例将显著增加,且区域分布不均衡,东西部在贫困的广度和深度上都存在显著差异。农户个体的人力资本和社会资本是其脱离持续性贫困的重要影响因素。此外,减少社会排斥将促进弱势农户提高社会资源积累,有助于农户脱离长期贫困。分散收入风险,也有利于农户摆脱长期贫困。除了人力资本、社会排斥性、收入风险等对农户贫困持续性产生影响外,地区资源禀赋,尤其是市场经济条件差异会对农户持续性贫困产生显著影响。当农户长期处于贫困,这表明其脱离贫困的难度更大,可行能力被剥夺的程度更深,应当是扶贫政策关注的重点。     

劳动力转移对农户脱贫路径的影响研究:基于收入中介效应模型分析

为进一步探索劳动力转移对促进农户脱贫的途径有效性,基于赣南原中央苏区农村贫困户的789户调查数据,构建以家庭收入为中介变量、"劳动力转移-中介传导-贫困退出"为传导机制的中介效应理论模型,分析劳动力转移对农户减贫的影响机理。结果显示,劳动力转移是通过增加家庭收入和非农收入对促进贫困户退出有显著的正向作用,能够有效地促进贫困户摆脱贫困;但对于通过非农就业反哺农业经营,以此来提高农业收入,从而达到贫困户的脱贫效果不明显。为此,本研究提出以下几点建议:制定和完善劳动力转移的政策措施、合理安排的劳动力转移人数和完善社会保障体系对推动反贫困进程具有重要作用。     

Paths out of poverty: An eclectic and idiosyncratic review of analytical approaches

This paper briefly reviews different debates about approaches for paths out of poverty, considering several views, from the analysis of specific policies to more general or systemic considerations. The contribution of this paper is to present a broad outline of those debates and to serve as an illustration of the complexity of analyzing paths out of poverty. It discusses in sequence, the more microeconomic approach of evaluation of individual policies for poverty alleviation; then it moves to broader issues of growth and development strategies, and macroeconomic policies, and their links to the persistence or reduction of poverty; and finally discusses the topic of institutions, related to how policy decisions are made and enforced in societies at the previous three levels. Finally, the concluding section argues that a successful program to eliminate poverty must integrate all levels of individual policies, macroeconomic programs, development strategies and good institutions. This paper hopes to contribute to that crucial work.     

The very idea of sustainability

Discussions of the desirability and ethical justifiability of sustainable agriculture are frequently impeded, if not derailed by the variety of meanings attached to the term sustainable. This paper suggests a taxonomy of different notions of sustainability distinguishing between agricultural product and process sustainability, in both static and dynamic forms, pursued by reductive (extractive), compensatory, regenerative, and induced homeostasis strategies. The discussion then goes on to argue that ethics demand sustainable agriculture. Finally the paper tries to identify just which types of sustainable agriculture will meet the ethical demands. I conclude with reasons for living sustainably in the present, as opposed to trying to orient agriculture by reference to the rights of future generations.Charles V. Blatz is Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Philosophy at The University of Toledo (Ohio). He is a founding member of the International Development Ethics Association, and is editor ofEthics and Agriculture: An Anthology on Current Issues in World Context (University of Idaho Press, 1991).     

森林可持续经营的社会福利效应分析

森林具有较强的正外部性,森林的可持续经营对保持和维护森林的外部性具有很强的作用.分析了森林可持续经营的意义及世界主要国家关于森林可持续经营方面的立法,研究人工林和天然林在自给自足和自由贸易情况下实施可持续经营的社会福利效应,并对我国森林实施可持续经营进行了展望.     

覆膜补灌对云南春作马铃薯耗水特性及生长的影响

目的研究集雨补灌条件下,春马铃薯—夏蚕豆复种(薯豆复种)+豆秆还田对土壤养分变化及细菌群落结构的影响。方法以薯豆复种+豆秆还田、马铃薯种后空闲以及马铃薯连作土壤为研究对象,测定土壤理化性质;采用Illumina NovaSeq PE250对土壤细菌16S V3~V4区域进行高通量测序。结果与常规栽培模式相比,集雨补灌条件下,春作马铃薯提前75~76 d出苗,提前43~74 d收获,避开了晚疫病危害,滇薯23、滇薯47和青薯9号的产量分别增加28 953.0、8 571.0和28 570.5 kg/hm²。与马铃薯连作相比,薯豆复种+豆秆还田的土壤pH值增加0.17,有机质含量增加0.35%,全氮含量增加0.02%,有效氮含量增加43.6 mg/kg,有效钾含量增加51.5 mg/kg。与马铃薯种后空闲相比,薯豆复种+豆秆还田的土壤pH值增加0.14,有机质含量增加0.33%,全氮含量增加0.02%,全磷含量增加0.02%,有效氮含量增加39.8 mg/kg。薯豆复种+豆秆还田模式下,土壤中放线菌门、芽单胞菌门和鞘氨醇单胞菌属相对丰度高于马铃薯种后空闲模式和连作模式,但连作模式下土壤酸杆菌门丰度更高。相关性分析表明：土壤pH以及全磷和全钾含量是驱动细菌门丰度变化的主要环境因子。结论薯豆复种+豆秆还田可提高土壤肥力、减缓土壤酸化、增加土壤有益细菌门和属的相对丰度,而马铃薯连作会降低土壤pH和减少有益细菌;集雨补灌春作马铃薯收后复种夏蚕豆可增加复种指数,提高土地利用效率,改善土壤营养状况和细菌群落结构,减轻马铃薯连作障碍。     

贫困地区人力资源开发调查

1985年中国的绝对贫困人口有1．25亿,自1986年国家开展大规模扶贫工作以来,经全社会的共同努力,下降到1997年底的5000万人。同期,陕西省农村贫困人口也由650万下降到120万。全国的贫困发生率从1985年的15％下降到1995年的7．1％。但是,应该看到,伴随着农村贫困人口数量下降的另一个因素是实际衡量中国农村贫困标准在下降。     

The agulhas current during the late pleistocene: analysis of modern faunal analogs

Analysis of micropaleontologic evidence in a deep-sea core in the south-west Indian Ocean indicates that the Agulhas Current was not a dominant feature of this region during glacial intervals. Interpretation of the fossil record, based on the analysis of modern faunal analogs, indicates that during glacial intervals the Agulhas Current was not the strong, year-round current that it is today. Evidence shows that during summer months a weak tropical current was present. During winter months the current was replaced by cool, high-salinity waters. This interpretation suggests that seasonal changes in circulation may have been more pronounced in the southwest Indian Ocean during glacial intervals than today.     

雷公山自然保护区台湾杉资源调查分析

台湾杉Taiwania cryptomerioides,杉科,台湾杉属,常绿大乔木,国家二级保护树种,第四纪冰川孑遗植物。我国早在第四纪冰期前就有大面积的台湾杉林分布,经过第四纪冰期的几次侵袭,目前世界上仅在中国和缅甸有分布。在我国仅限于云南省西部怒江流域的贡山、澜沧江流域的兰坪、台湾的阿里山、湖北省西南部的利川、毛坝,     

云南省马铃薯生产的现状与分析

详细论述了云南省马铃薯的栽培历史、生态类型和种植分区,深入分析了云南省马铃薯生产中普遍存在的生产基础条件较差,品种单一、缺乏专用型品种,品种退化严重,品种更新速度慢,栽培管理粗放,病虫危害严重,经济效益低等问题。提出了提高云南马铃薯产量和品质的主要途径和方法,以促进云南省马铃薯生产和产业的健康发展。     

我国天然橡胶产业现状与前景分析

在简要阐述我国天然橡胶产业的现状及市场前景基础上，分析了国际环境对我国橡胶产业的影响和我国天然橡胶产业存在的问题，最后提出了发展建议。     

扶贫产业开发新思路:打造跨区域扶贫产业区

《中国农村扶贫开发纲要(2011-2020年)》把全国贫困地区划分为14个连片特困地区,力求打破以往的点式扶贫和区域限制。但是,扶贫产业发展仍旧受到行政区域的限制,各自为营。为此,从扶贫对象转变的视角梳理了中国贫困治理的历史演进逻辑,并提出打造跨区域扶贫产业区的扶贫产业开发新思路,即在充分尊重连片特困区的资源特点、产业特点的基础上,完全立足于产业发展,打破区域界线,实现资源的统一配置,提高规模效益、资源配置效率和扶贫效果。但是,当前打造跨区域扶贫产业区面临着内涵的科学界定、分工与协调机制欠缺、区内产业发展参差不齐、地方资金配套标准难以统一等现实困境。因此,需要把跨区域扶贫产业区建设作为中央单列扶贫项目管理、探索"联合体发展模式"、普惠与特惠政策相结合以及创新参与式产业扶贫模式等措施,促进跨区域扶贫产业区建设和发展。     

英山县旅游扶贫脱贫成果满意度分析

为获得英山县居民对旅游扶贫产业脱贫成果满意度的感知情况及相关影响因素,通过对县内具有示范性的景区所在村的村民展开问卷调查,并分析英山县居民对前期开展旅游扶贫带来的脱贫成果效益的满意度情况及其差异性特征.结果表明,旅游扶贫带来的效益主要来自经济效益、社会文化和环境效益3个方面;性别、家庭结构、收入来源和家庭收入等社会学特...     

Paths out of poverty: International experience

The global community has committed, as the first priority of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs), to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. While the decline of global poverty continues, progress has slowed and remains uneven through different parts of the world. To ensure that no one is left behind in China and beyond, research will be critical to inform paths out of poverty. In this regard, it is valuable to take stock of international experiences and the various pathways out of poverty with a focus on agriculture. Africa's agricultural growth has been largely driven by land expansion and poverty reduction has been the slowest among all regions. South Asia agriculture has been led by diversification of smallholder agriculture and its poverty reduction impact has been large, but its future poverty reduction is limited by rural–urban migration and lack of formal jobs in urban centers. Social protection programs have been used by many Latin American countries as the region is more urbanized than any other developing regions. China's agricultural and economic success was driven by agriculture-led reforms and rural development. These changes brought significantly higher incomes among rural residents, which accounted for highest initial levels of poverty and hunger, and in increased availability of food at affordable prices. Investments in nutrition, health, education, clean water, and good sanitation also complemented progress. The foremost lesson is that smallholder-led agriculture growth in land scarce countries often have the largest impact on poverty reduction. Secondly, nonfarm employment and rural–urban migration must follow once agricultural productivity has reached a certain level. However, premature exiting from agriculture can do more harm. Thirdly, even before large scale poverty reduction through sectoral and regional development is exhausted, social safety nets must be established to cover those who have not benefited from growth and development. Productive social safety nets have proven to be cost-effective in many countries. Urban poverty should also be part of the protection scheme when large proportion of rural population moves to cities.     

对当前我国大学生就业政策的思考

2003年以来,国家相继出台了一系列政策用以缓解大学生就业难的问题,并取得了成效。但纵观相关文件,有些政策过于宽松,缺乏可操作性,有的未有得到很好执行,解决大学生就业的根本途径是控制人口增长,大力发展经济,同时也应调整大学毕业生的就业心态,鼓励他们到基层或贫困地区工作。