Spatial and Temporal Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Trends in Income Inequality

ABSTRACT Overall total inequality for state per capita personal income as well as total inequality for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas are examined for the period 1969 to 1995. In each case, the total inequality was partitioned into between-and within-region variations. Statistical testing shows no perceptible differences between the major categories, nonmetropolitan and metropolitan. Further, this study uses a model to test for narrowing of income gaps within these categories. It was found that for both nonmetropolitan and metropolitan, a general trend toward equality was evidenced during the early 1970s decade. In that decade, the nonmetropolitan areas’incomes approached the metropolitan areas’incomes but showed significant divergences in the 1980s, followed again by a narrowing of the gaps in the 1990s.     

Restructuring and Well-Being in the Non-Metropolitan Pacific Northwest

This paper shows how social and economic change impact well-being in Pacific Northwest counties from 1970–1990. Economic and social well-being, measured as income growth and low income inequality, are modeled using net migration data and measures of social and economic restructuring. In the 1970s there is an inverse relationship between population growth and income growth, while during both decades the retail sector contributes to income growth. Amenity or urban-adjacent counties show the most growth, in both population and employment, but also have the greatest income inequality. Several factors contributing to income growth also contribute to greater income inequality. Migration flows for each decade also illustrate the associations between restructuring, well-being, and population growth. Populations in counties with net out-migration over both decades are aging, but show greater income growth and lower inequality in the 1970s followed by lower income growth in the 1980s. Net in-migration over both decades is associated with lower income growth and greater inequality in the 1970s, but these counties are substantially better off economically in the 1980s and they maintain a balanced age structure through migration of different age cohorts over the two decades. This research provides needed work on the connections between social and economic change in the context of the Pacific Northwest.     

Geographical and Gender Differences in Labor Force Participation: Is there an Appalachian Effect?

ABSTRACT. A recent article in this journal concluded that West Virginia's low labor force participation rates cannot be attributed to economic, demographic, or institutional factors and that they probably result from an Appalachian culture which has a strong preference for non-market activities. This article reviews the diverse social science literature on determinants of labor force participation and then takes a closer look at Appalachian participation. It presents and uses a more comprehensive model, focuses on the county level instead of the state, and examines variations within Appalachia and over time. The main findings are that the Appalachian labor force gap is either nonexistent or very small and that there is no statistical evidence of a unique or pervasive Appalachian cultural effect. Appalachian labor force behavior appears to be quite average given the conditions faced by Appalachians.     

Do Entrepreneurs Enhance Economic Growth in Lagging Regions?

Because support for entrepreneurship is often a core part of economic development strategies, we investigate whether it is important for growth in lagging, rural U.S. regions by focusing on Appalachia. While entrepreneurship has the advantage of being endogenous and “home grown,” previous research suggests that remote rural regions may lack the agglomeration economies to benefit greatly from entrepreneurship. Using county‐level data, we explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth, employing self‐employment and small business data as proxies for entrepreneurship. We look at the results for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) region, using its immediate Appalachian neighbors outside the ARC region as a control group. Moreover, we also account for self‐sorting by proprietors to locate in expanding regions. Despite strong barriers to growth in Appalachia, our empirical results suggest that self‐employment is positively associated with employment and income growth, and that efforts to promote entrepreneurial capacity may be among the few economic development strategies with positive payoffs in remote regions.     

Restructuring Appalachian Manufacturing in 1963–1992: The Role of Branch Plants

This paper uses the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD),a unique, detailed, plant‐level database that covers the entire U.S. manufacturing sector in five‐year intervals to examine how the manufacturing sector in Appalachia has evolved over the past thirty years (from 1963 to 1992). The research focuses on three questions:1) Is the Appalachian Region attracting new manufacturing plants at the same rate as the rest of the country? 2) Does Appalachian manufacturing employment exhibit low wage, low productivity characteristics, compared with the rest of the country? 3) Is Appalachia still heavily reliant on branch plants? The results show the manufacturing base of Appalachia in 1992 looks very much the same as it did in 1967. Compared to the rest of the country, Appalachian manufacturing is still more reliant on branch plants and is characterized by lower wage and lower productivity establishments. This result is not due to a lack of entry—manufacturing plant entry rates and manufacturing job formation associated with entrants in Appalachia are only slightly lower than for the U.S. as a whole. Job destruction rates caused by exits are actually lower than in the U.S. as a whole.     

Regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends in annual growth rates of total personal income and population: 1959-1987

"The annual growth rates of total personal income and population in regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas [of the United States] are examined for the period 1959-87, partitioned into sub periods. Statistical testing for equality of rates shows no perceptible differences in growth rates between the major categories, metro and nonmetro. Further, this study uses a model similar in scope to shift-share analysis to test for convergence of the growth rates within these categories. It was found that for both regional nonmetro and metro areas, there was a general trend toward convergence with the exception of the 1970s decade. In that decade total population growth rates in the nonmetro areas and total income and total population growth rates in the metro areas showed significant divergences."     

基于空间自相关的宁夏县域建设用地节约集约利用水平空间分异特征研究

摘 要：研究旨在摸清宁夏22个县建设用地集约利用现状水平,总结空间分布特征,剖析土地利用方面存在的问题,为进一步提高土地管理水平、科学制定针对性的管理政策提供科学依据。基于县域尺度,运用多因素综合评价法对宁夏22个县建设用地集约利用水平进行综合评价,并通过空间自相关分析法对建设用地集约利用水平空间分异特征进行了分析。研究表明宁夏县域建设用地集约利用水平空间分异特征明显,22个县中只有6个县综合评价得分达到80分以上,用地节约集约水平高;宁夏县域建设用地集约利用状况总指数呈现出自北向南逐步递减的特征,其中热点区集中分布在宁夏北部、次热点区位于热点区外围、次冷点区成散团式分布、冷点区分布在中部和南部各别县。整体来看,宁夏建设用地集约利用水平整体不高且空间分布极不平衡,呈现出较强的空间相关性,空间集聚特征明显。未来宁夏北部地区和南部地区各县要结合自身实际,制定差别化的集约用地管理政策,北部经济发展较好的县（市、区）,主要是加强存量用地的挖潜和新增用地效益的提高;南部山区各县（市、区）更重要的是要促进经济社会快速发展,提高土地利用效益。     

Life Cycle Neighborhood Changes in Chicago Suburbs 1960–80

Abstract The number of households in Chicago's suburbs grew rapidly between 1960 and 1980, and the spatial distribution of households of various income groups changed greatly. Nonetheless, at the conclusion of the 20-year period, the differences among the distributions of the income groups had changed little. Only in a few areas did invasion and succession play a role in neighborhood economic change, since few poor blacks or Hispanics have migrated to suburban Chicago, and there was little European ethnic concentration there. In several areas there is evidence of filtering of older expensive housing to lower income households. In other places it appears that real income of many households has decreased over time sufficiently to cause them to enter a lower income category.     

Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Economic Growth?

This study examines the relationship between casinos and economic growth in the U.S. Using county‐level data on the 48 contiguous states from 2003 to 2012, we estimate the effect of casinos on per capita income growth and job creation. Our research procedures include examining the relationship using level‐to‐level panel data, and 3‐year and 10‐year differenced data. An instrumental variable approach is also considered to account for potential endogeneity of the casino variable. Although, the instruments are both relevant and exogenous, test results found insufficient evidence of endogeneity in our panel data models. In addition, we estimate a spatial error model (SEM) to account for the unobserved spatial characteristics that may affect economic growth in the counties but are not captured by our conventional econometric models. Our results show that casinos had a positive effect on per capita income; casino expansions exerted a small, positive effect on both per capita income growth and job growth. However, the effect of casino expansions on 10‐year per capita income growth dissipated when we controlled for the spatial autocorrelation in our model. Nevertheless, the SEMs results also suggest that casino expansions continued to have a positive effect on the 2003–2012 job growth.     

1980～2013年攀枝花烟区10℃积温变化趋势分析

采用10℃积温数据对1980～2013年间攀枝花烟区热量条件进行分析,解析了攀枝花烟区10℃积温的空间格局及变化趋势,对比了不同区域及各区县间的差异,为研究区依据不同热量条件制定相应的烤烟种植与栽培制度提供数据支持。结果表明：研究区10℃积温呈南部东区、西区及仁和县高而北部盐边县和米易县低的空间格局,在1980～2013年间,研究区10℃积温总体呈上升趋势(5.44℃/a),在空间上呈西北部盐边县高而东部低的格局。分区县比较来看,东区、西区及仁和区地处金沙江河谷,10℃积温较高且变化趋势最明显,米易县和盐边县海拔高积温低且变化趋势较低,其中米易县10℃积温变化趋势最低,由于两者纬度一致,因此积温变化曲线也相对一致。     

“Moderate” Environmental Amenities and Economic Change: The Nonmetropolitan Northern Forest of the Northeast U.S., 1970‐2000

ABSTRACT Population, employment, and income changes in a region comprised of eighteen nonmetropolitan counties of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York are described using Bureau of Economic Analysis data covering 1970 to 2000. Changes at the county level are examined as net differences using pooled cross‐section time series analysis. The specific focus of the empirical analysis is the effect that environmental amenities have in population and economic change. Empirical results indicate that a county's relative endowment of environmental amenities has positive economic change effects, but only when the county is relatively accessible as well. Further, the environmental amenity effects vary in their temporal consistency, even when accessibility is taken into account. In general, however, the reported results support the proposition that even relatively moderate environmental amenities can hold positive effects for economic change.     

Nonemployment Income and the Economic Base of Michigan Counties: 1959–1986

ABSTRACT Despite the fact that nonemployment income makes up approximately one-third of all personal income, its impact on local area economies has not been closely examined. This study uses Michigan county data to examine the impact of nonemployment income on nonbasic income over a twenty-seven-year period. This impact is compared to the impact of basic income by employing regression analysis to estimate comparative multiplier effects for both types of income. Nonemployment income is found to have a significant impact on nonbasic income, particularly in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan urban counties, where its impact appears to be stronger than that of basic income.     

The Baby Boom and Nonmetropolitan Population Change, 1975‐1990

ABSTRACT Both economic and demographic contexts influence aggregate migration streams at the regional scale. The influence of demographic and economic context on aggregate migration at the nonmetropolitan scale, however, remains unstudied. This paper presents analysis based on 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data related to age cohort effects on nonmetropolitan population change. The analysis provides enhanced understanding of how demographic factors like the baby boom might influence population movements into and out of nonmetropolitan regions. Using modified age‐cohort decomposition techniques, the analysis demonstrates how the fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth between 1975 and 1990 are tied to the differential migration flows of the peak baby boom years (those born between 1955 and 1964). The analysis further demonstrates how fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth across regions are tied to migration flows of these baby boomers. Significant variation remains within regions.     

Return migration to Eastern Kentucky and the stem family concept

This research provides a conceptual framework--based on the stem family concept--with which to explore the cyclical nature of return migration to Eastern Kentucky. The work of Brown, Schwarzweller, and Mangalam shows how the stem family facilitates the outward movement of migrants during times of economic opportunity outside Appalachia, while providing a potential haven when sociocultural pulls within Appalachia exceed the economic tugs outside the region. Responses from 119 households in Laurel, Pike, and Powell counties are used to test hypotheses associated with the general model. The survey results support the continued existence of extreme stem family forces within Eastern Kentucky. Most immigrants are return migrants; return migration motives continue to be more related to sociocultural factors than they are job-related decisions. Most returnees are well below retirement age, and even the younger and more educated among these have a strong preference for remaining in Eastern Kentucky, although their historical tendency had been to move away when economic pulls are strong enough. The work of Brown, Schwarzweller, and Mangalam shows how the stem family facilitates the outward movement of migrants during times of economic opportunity outside Appalachia, while providing a potential haven when sociocultural pulls within Appalachia exceed the economic tugs outside the region. Overall, there is a need to better understand the role of awareness space in the destination selection of cyclical migrants.     

Spatial Patterns in the Economic Development of the Mountain West

ABSTRACT Many counties in the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are experiencing rapid growth in population and income, even though extractive industries that served historically as their primary economic base are in decline. The purpose of this paper is to establish statistically the spatial determinants of population, employment, and income densities in 86 rural mountain counties and any changes in those determinants between 1985 and 1994. The results of this analysis indicate that densities are oriented to regional metropolitan centers and critical amenities such as ski areas, national parks, and universities or colleges. Negatively sloped density gradients with respect to distance from regional metropolitan centers suggest that the densities of settlement patterns beyond metropolitan boundaries are analogous to those within metropolitan areas relative to urban centers. In short, a tension apparently exists in locational choice; residents of the Mountain West desire to live near the beauties and amenities of the mountain landscape but do not want to entirely sever their urban ties. Because amenities are the primary attraction of mountain counties rather than employment in locationally dependent industries, at least some migrants must have relatively footloose forms of income.     

基于熵权TOPSIS和ESDA的甘肃省县域经济时空演变研究

县域经济是我国国民经济的基本单元,研究县域经济差异对于一个地区的发展以及整个国民经济的发展都有重大意义。本文以甘肃省86个县域及嘉峪关市共87个地域为研究单元,选取人均GDP 、第二、三产业比重等12项相关指标建立了县域经济发展水平综合评价体系,利用熵权TOPSIS法和ESDA法对近20年来甘肃省各县域经济发展水平进行时间和空间两方面的评测。结果表明：从1995—2015年20年期间,甘肃省经济明显增长,但与全国各地经济发展水平相比还处于缓慢发展阶段;甘肃省县域经济发展水平两极差异明显,排名靠前及靠后的县域在20年间变化不明显,省会兰州及河西地区发展水平较高,陇中和陇南地区县域发展水平整体较低,呈现“强者恒强,弱者恒弱”的格局;空间自相关性显著,低值聚类的显著性更强;热点分析显示,甘肃省县域经济呈现明显的单核型经济空间结构,发展水平较高的地区对周边城市带动作用很小,地域差异明显。     

Integrating Economic Base Theory with Regional Adjustment Models: The Nonmetropolitan Rocky Mountain West

ABSTRACT Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model.     

粮食主销区水稻生产格局演变与影响因素的空间扰动研究——以广东为例

为了研究中国粮食生产受经济发展挤占的过程。本研究以全国最大粮食主销区广东省为例,利用空间自相关分析与SDM回归方法对121个县级区域进行空间计量分析,探讨近20年粮食生产变化与区域演变。结果表明：广东省粮食产量空间分布并非随机,而是呈现出逐渐增强的空间集聚性。粮食生产区域变迁受到劳动力转移与资本化的双重驱动,一方面,粮食生产依然是劳动力密集型产业,农业劳动力对粮食产出水平的支撑仍然是目前广东粮食主产区得以存在的主要条件;另一方面,资本进入农业通过推拉作用使粮食产业发生转移。本研究认为要重视粮食生产的地域格局特征对粮食生产政策制定的影响,一方面要科学划定粮食产销县,另一方面要审慎划定粮食和重要农产品生产功能区。     

Why Is U.S. Poverty Higher in Nonmetropolitan than in Metropolitan Areas?

ABSTRACT In the U.S., people are more likely to be poor if they live in a nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) than in a metropolitan (metro) area. A common explanation for this phenomenon is that nonmetro places offer relatively few economic and social opportunities. This article explores another plausible explanation, asking if the disproportionate poverty in nonmetro areas partly reflects attitudes of people with personal attributes related to poverty: they may be attracted to nonmetro places or otherwise reluctant (or unable) to leave them. To test this hypothesis, data from nine waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) are used to track economic well‐being and nonmetro–metro residential choice among a sample of 2,007 low‐income householders. A series of multivariate regression models are estimated in which the dependent variable is a householder's income to need (adjusted for spatial cost‐of‐housing differences), and regressors are individual attributes, a binary variable for nonmetro residence, and state fixed‐effects. Regression results show that controlling for householder educational attainment reduces the negative association between nonmetro residence and income to need; but controlling for unobserved, time‐invariant heterogeneity via individual fixed‐effects increases the magnitude of this negative association. Study findings thus appear to indicate that enduring nonmetro poverty is explained both by a sorting of low human capital individuals into nonmetro areas and by reduced economic opportunities in nonmetro compared to metro places.     

The Share of Southeastern Black Counties in the Southern Rural Renaissance

Some authors have suggested that a leading problem associated with US factory employment for blacks may be that the nonfarm jobs--specifically manufacturing--have tended to go to heavily white counties rather than to the mainly black counties of the Deep South. This study is limited to the 1959-1977 period, the time of the most vigorous nonmetropolitan employment growth. To test the hypothesis that factory jobs have bypassed heavily black counties, a 100% sample of nonmetropolitan counties was used from 13 Southern states for the 2 time periods, 1959-1969 and 1969-1977. Results show that the minority counties were not bypassed by Southern rural factory job growth either in the 1960s or the 1970s, but their gains were not as sizeable as those of more heavily white counties. Both the neoclassical economics of discrimination--with its individualistic "taste for discrimination"--and the stinging critique by Marshall in 1974 that such analysis ignores the important role of institutionalized racism--can "explain the empirical conclusions of this article." Traditional "smokestack-chasing" methods are by no means hopeless. While co-ops and community development corporation strategies can be combined with traditional methods, it is important that foundations, government agencies, anti-poverty programs, and black leadership also focus on projects to competitively attract jobs in the traditional fashion.