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1.
Data pertaining to the movement of dairy cattle through 2 large livestock markets in the province of Ontario were collected for 1 week per month throughout 2004. Counts and postal codes of sellers and buyers of adult dairy cattle, veal calves, and dairy calves were obtained. Three assumptions were made to represent the level of mixing among animals that could take place at the markets. We estimated the number of livestock holdings that could be exposed to a highly contagious disease agent, should infected animals have been sold through the market in the same week. The estimates ranged from 8 to 20 holdings, when assuming no mixing at the market, to 51 to 171 holdings when assuming complete mixing. These markets are important hubs in the dairy cattle movement network in Ontario and pose the risk of infecting a large number of livestock holdings should animals infected with a highly contagious disease agent pass through them.  相似文献   

2.
We describe the movement of cattle throughout Argentina in 2005. Details of farm-to-farm and farm-to-slaughter movements of cattle were obtained from the Sanitary Management System database (Sistema de Gestión Sanitaria, SGS), maintained by the National Service for Agrifood Health and Quality (SENASA). Movements were described at the regional and district level in terms of frequency, the number of stock transported, the district of origin and destination and Euclidean distance traveled. Social network analysis was used to characterize the connections made between regions and districts as a result of cattle movement transactions, and to show how these characteristics might influence disease spread. Throughout 2005 a total of 1.3 million movement events involving 32 million head of cattle (equivalent to approximately 57% of the national herd) were recorded in the SGS database. The greatest number of farm-to-farm movements occurred from April to June whereas numbers of farm-to-slaughter movement events were relatively constant throughout the year. Throughout 2005 there was a 1.1-1.6-fold increase in the number of farm-to-farm movements of cattle during April-June, compared with other times of the year. District in-degree and out-degree scores varied by season, with higher maximum scores during the autumn and winter compared with summer and spring. Districts with high in-degree scores were concentrated in the Finishing region of the country whereas districts with high out-degree scores were concentrated not only in the Finishing region but also in Mesopotamia, eastern Border and southern Central regions. Although movements of cattle from the Border region tended not to be mediated via markets, the small number of districts in this area with relatively high out-degree scores is a cause for concern as they have the potential to distribute infectious disease widely, in the event of an incursion.  相似文献   

3.
Epidemic curves, odds ratios and chisquare were used to investigate an epidemic of respiratory disease in a pen of feedlot cattle. The cattle were divided into four groups by an eartag number received at processing. Data for each group were collected from feedlot records describing purchase, transportation and processing histories, daily feeding methods, daily pen movements, daily diagnoses, treatment and mortality rates. These data were used to describe the effects of market origin and feeding management on the levels and distribution of respiratory disease.

The three groups of cattle purchased from auction markets and started on high levels of grain in their rations were determined to be 6.3 times (P<0.0005) more likely to be treated for any disease, 4.9 times (P<0.0005) more likely to be treated for respiratory disease, 12.7 times (P<0.0025) more likely to die, and 6.7 times (P<0.0471) more likely to die with respiratory disease than the group made up primarily of farm-assembled heifers and started on a 10% grain ration with time for adjustment to grain.

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4.
Trade patterns of animal movements in a specific industry are complex and difficult to study because there are many stakeholders, premises that are heterogeneously spread over the country, and a highly dynamic flow of animals exists among them. The Danish cattle industry was defined as a network of animal movements and graph theory was used to analyse the movements of cattle within this network. A premise was defined as a farm, an abattoir or a market. These premises constituted the network nodes in the graph and the animal movements between them were the links. In this framework, each premise had a sub-network of other premises to which it was linked by these animal movements. If no movement of animals were registered for a specific farm, then the sub-network for that premise consisted of only that premise. Otherwise, the sub-network linked the premise of interest to all premises from which and to which animals were moved, as long as there was a path linking animal movements to that specific premise. This approach allowed visualization and analyses of four levels of organization that existed in Denmark animal registers: (1) the animal that was moved, (2) the movements of all animals between two premises, (3) the specific premise network, and (4) the overall industry network. When contagious animals are moved from one premise to another, then to a third and so forth, these movements create a path for potential transfer of pathogens. The paths within which pathogens are present identify the transmission risks. A network of animal movements should provide information about pathogen transmission and disease spread. The network of the Danish cattle industry network was a directed scale-free graph (the direction of a movement was known), with an in-degree power of 2 an out-degree power of 1.46, consisted of 29,999 nodes, and 130,265 movements during a 6-month period. The in clustering coefficient was calculated to be 0.52 for the inward direction (movement to), while it was 0.02 for the outward direction (movement from). In Denmark, the cattle movements between premises demonstrated a large degree of heterogeneity. This heterogeneity in movements between farms should be used to evaluate the risk potential of disease transmission for each premise and must be considered when modelling disease spread between premises. The objective of this research was to describe the network of animal movements and not just the animal movements per se.  相似文献   

5.
During the past decade the British livestock industry has suffered from several major pathogen outbreaks, and a variety of regulatory and disease control measures have been applied to the movement of livestock with the express aim of mitigating the spread of infection. The Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks (RADAR) project, which has been collecting data on the movement of cattle since 1998, provides a relatively comprehensive record of how these policies have influenced the movement of cattle between animal holdings, markets, and slaughterhouses in Britain. Many previous studies have focused on the properties of the network that can be derived from these movements--treating farms as nodes and movements as directed (and potentially weighted) edges in the network. However, of far greater importance is how these policy changes have influenced the potential spread of infectious diseases. Here we use a stochastic fully individual-based model of cattle in Britain to assess how the epidemic potential has varied from 2000 to 2009 as the pattern of movements has changed in response to legislation and market forces. Our simulations show that the majority of policy changes lead to significant decreases in the epidemic potential (measured in multiple ways), but that this potential then increases through time as cattle farmers modify their behaviour in response. Our results suggest that the cattle industry is likely to experience boom-bust dynamics, with the actions that farmers take during epidemic-free periods to maximise their profitability likely to increase the potential for large-scale epidemics to occur.  相似文献   

6.
Objectives   To gather demographic data on live pig sales through a peri-urban saleyard in Camden, New South Wales, and to demonstrate the difficulties in tracing the subsequent movements of pigs, particularly weaner pigs.
Procedure   Records of pig sales held weekly at the Camden saleyards for the 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 financial years were analysed. Saleyard data on a number of variables were entered into a purpose-designed database. Distributions of pig sales according to pig class (weaner/porker/baconer/backfatter), purchaser type (butcher/non-butcher), and transaction type (cash/account) were determined.
Results   More weaners (3192 in 2003/2004 and 3940 in 2004/2005) were sold than any other class of pig, accounting for 45% of the total pigs sold during this period. During 2003/2004, 3802 pigs were bought by 329 non-butcher purchasers including 1631 weaners (43%) purchased by 153 non-butchers (47%). The majority of these non-butchers during the study period (86%) paid cash for their pigs and did not provide the necessary information to allow the end destination of pigs to be determined. Location data was available for all vendors but only 25% of purchasers.
Conclusions   This study highlights the challenges posed in tracing movement of pigs following sale by auction. A high proportion of weaners sold at this peri-urban saleyard would not have been slaughtered immediately. This study highlights the potential difficulties in tracing pig movements after sale, for disease control purposes. We recommend that legislation be amended requiring the identification of weaner pigs sold live at auction in all states of Australia and the recording of the property identification code of all vendors and purchasers of pigs sold live at auction.  相似文献   

7.
A survey of Southland farms was conducted to assess the potential for foot-and-mouth disease dissemination through normal movement patterns of farm animals and materials over a period similar to what would be expected from the time the virus arrived on a property to the time of diagnosis. Each farmer participating in the survey was required to complete a diary, recording all movements of people, animals and materials on to or off a farm during a 14-day period. The mean number of movements recorded per farm was 50. The distribution of movement distances showed the majority of movements occurred within the immediate neighbourhood of the origin, with 31.5% and 59.5% of all movements occurring within 5 km and 10 km respectively. In order to contain 95% of all movements, an area where movement was controlled would have to have a radius of 100 km. The data was then used to construct a spatial simulation model to study the movements off a hypothetical index farm. When secondary movements off primary destinations were included in the model, the mean number of movements to be traced to contain the disease was 100 (range 77-160) for a 14-day simulation period. The area required to contain 95% of all movements tended to increase slightly, depending on the length of simulation run. The mean number of high risk movements that occurred over the 100 km radius was 3.4.  相似文献   

8.
The movements of animals were analysed under the conceptual framework of graph theory in mathematics. The swine production related premises of Denmark were considered to constitute the nodes of a network and the links were the animal movements. In this framework, each farm will have a network of other premises to which it will be linked. A premise was a farm (breeding, rearing or slaughter pig), an abattoir or a trade market. The overall network was divided in premise specific subnets that linked the other premises from and to which animals were moved. This approach allowed us to visualise and analyse the three levels of organization related to animal movements that existed in the Danish swine production registers: the movement of animals between two premises, the premise specific networks, and the industry network. The analyses of animal movements were done using these three levels of organisation. The movements of swine were studied for the period September 30, 2002 to May 22, 2003. For daily movements of swine between two slaughter pig premises, the median number of pigs moved was 130 pigs with a maximum of 3306. For movements between a slaughter pig premise and an abattoir, the median number of pigs was 24. The largest percentage of movements was from farm to abattoir (82.5%); the median number of pigs per movement was 24 and the maximum number was 2018. For the whole period the median and maximum Euclidean distances observed in farm-to-farm movements were 22 km and 289 km respectively, while in the farm-to-abattoir movements, they were 36.2 km and 285 km. The network related to one specific premise showed that the median number of premises was mainly away from slaughter pig farms (3) or breeder farms (26) and mainly to an abattoir (1535). The assumption that animal movements can be randomly generated on the basis of farm density of the surrounding area of any farm is not correct since the patterns of animal movements have the topology of a scale-free network with a large degree of heterogeneity. This supported the opinion that the disease spread software assuming homogeneity in farm-to-farm relationship should only be used for large-scale interpretation and for epidemic preparedness. The network approach, based on graph theory, can be used efficiently to express more precisely, on a local scale (premise), the heterogeneity of animal movements. This approach, by providing network knowledge to the local veterinarian in charge of controlling disease spread, should also be evaluated as a potential tool to manage epidemics during the crisis. Geographic information systems could also be linked in the approach to produce knowledge about local transmission of disease.  相似文献   

9.
Pre-movement testing (PrMT) for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was introduced in England and Wales in 2 phases starting in 2006. This study used questionnaires (n=800, response rate=31%) and analysis of national cattle movement records between January 2003 and February 2007 to investigate the impact of PrMT on specific farm management behaviours. A majority of farmers (65%) believed they had not changed their behaviour in response to PrMT; the main reported changes related to decisions regarding selling of cattle. There was evidence in the cattle movement data that introduction of PrMT resulted in reduction of movements of cattle between farms in those areas which must undertake PrMT. The buying behaviour reported by farmers reflected the tendency to buy locally but some farmers reported that others might be more willing to purchase animals from high-risk areas as a result of increased confidence due to PrMT. However, there was little evidence in the movement data of increased movements from high- to low-risk bTB areas following introduction of PrMT. Analysis of the cattle movement data found increased movement of single animals and decreased movement of large batches (>10) of animals (directly) between farms since the introduction of PrMT.  相似文献   

10.
AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread. METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively 'busy' and 'quiet' times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0-1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4-1,203 km). CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.  相似文献   

11.
The susceptibility of capybaras exposed to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus by the intramuscular route and the rodents' close coexistence with cattle in FMD endemic ecosystems suggested that the species might play an important role in the virus' survival in the field.In the present study 2 capybaras and 2 cattle were exposed by contact to a capybara inoculated intramuscularly with FMD virus. Both pairs of exposed animals were then used as a contact source with another 2 cattle and 2 capybaras, respectively. All the animals became infected prior to the appearance of clinical lesions in the respective donor animals and developed generalized FMD clinical lesions. Specific neutralizing antibodies and antibodies to virus-infection-associated antigen (VIA) were also developed.Virus was isolated from feces and from throat swabs of 1 of the capybaras up to 17, but not at 23 days post-contact. Virus was isolated from the remaining animals up to 7–14 days post-contact.The results indicate that these rodents might transmit virus over long distances due to their migratory movements, but probably do not act as natural virus reservoirs.  相似文献   

12.
13.
A survey was conducted to quantify incidence of Beef Quality Assurance (BQA)-related defects in market beef and dairy cows and bulls selling at auction during 2 seasons in 2008. Twenty-three BQA-related traits were evaluated by 9 trained personnel during sales at 10 livestock auction markets in Idaho (n = 5; beef and dairy), California, (n = 4; dairy only), and Utah (n = 1; beef and dairy). Overall, 18,949 unique lots (8,213 beef cows, 1,036 beef bulls, 9,177 dairy cows, and 523 dairy bulls,) consisting of 23,479 animals (9,299 beef cows, 1,091 beef bulls, 12,429 dairy cows, and 660 dairy bulls) were evaluated during 125 sales (64 spring, 61 fall) for dairy and 79 sales (40 spring, 39 fall) for beef. The majority of market beef cows and bulls (60.9 and 71.3%, respectively) were predominantly black-hided, and the Holstein hide pattern was observed in 95.4 and 93.6% of market dairy cows and bulls, respectively. Market cattle weighed 548 ± 103.6 kg (beef cows), 751 ± 176.1 kg (beef bulls), 658 ± 129.7 kg (dairy cows), and 731 ± 150.8 kg (dairy bulls). Most beef cows (79.6%) weighed 455 to 726 kg, and most beef bulls (73.8%) weighed 545 to 954 kg, respectively. Among market beef cattle, 16.0% of cows and 14.5% of bulls weighed less than 455 and 545 kg, respectively, and 63.7% of dairy cows and 81.5% of dairy bulls weighed 545 to 817 kg or 545 to 954 kg, respectively. However, 19.5% of dairy cows and 13.1% of dairy bulls weighed less than 545 kg. Mean BCS for beef cattle (9-point scale) was 4.7 ± 1.2 (cows) and 5.3 ± 0.9 (bulls), and for dairy cattle (5-point scale) was 2.6 ± 0.8 (cows) and 2.9 ± 0.6 (bulls). Some 16.5% of beef cows and 4.1% of beef bulls had a BCS of 1 to 3, whereas 34.8% of dairy cows and 10.4% of dairy bulls had a BCS of 2 or less. Emaciation (beef BCS = 1, dairy BCS = 1.0) or near-emaciation (beef BCS = 2, dairy BCS = 1.5) was observed in 13.3% of dairy cows and 3.9% of beef cows. Among beef cattle, 15.1% of cows and 15.4% of bulls were considered lame. In contrast, 44.7% of dairy cows and 26.1% of dairy bulls were lame. Ocular neoplasia (cancer eye) was observed in only 0.6% of beef cows, 0.3% of beef bulls, 0.3% of dairy cows, and 0.0% of dairy bulls. However, among animals with ocular neoplasia, it was cancerous in 34.4% of beef bulls, 48.0% of dairy cows, and 73.3% of beef cows. In conclusion, numerous quality defects are present in market beef and dairy cattle selling at auction in the Western United States, which could influence their value at auction.  相似文献   

14.
AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread.

METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively ‘busy’ and ‘quiet’ times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors.

RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0–1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4–1,203 km).

CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.  相似文献   

15.
An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.  相似文献   

16.
Financial resources may limit the number of samples that can be collected and analysed in disease surveillance programmes. When the aim of surveillance is disease detection and identification of case herds, a risk-based approach can increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system. In this paper, the association between two network analysis measures, i.e. 'in-degree' and 'ingoing infection chain', and signs of infection is investigated. It is shown that based on regression analysis of combined data from a recent cross-sectional study for endemic viral infections and network analysis of animal movements, a positive serological result for bovine coronavirus (BCV) and bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is significantly associated with the purchase of animals. For BCV, this association was significant also when accounting for herd size and regional cattle density, but not for BRSV. Examples are given for different approaches to include cattle movement data in risk-based surveillance by selecting herds based on network analysis measures. Results show that compared to completely random sampling these approaches increase the number of detected positives, both for BCV and BRSV in our study population. It is concluded that network measures for the relevant time period based on updated databases of animal movements can provide a simple and straight forward tool for risk-based sampling.  相似文献   

17.

Cattle markets play a major role in economic empowerment among cattle-keeping communities in developing countries. The objective of this study was to assess the structure and performance of selected cattle markets in western Kenya. Data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire administered to livestock traders who visited markets and by conducting focus group interviews. Data was collected on availability of market information, price setting behavior, marketing costs, practices of traders on livestock movements, sources of working capital, and characteristic of respondents. A total of 252 questionnaires and six focus group discussions were conducted for the study. Cattle market concentration indices were analyzed by calculation of Gini coefficient and plotting of Lorenz curves. Additionally, gross marketing margins were calculated to evaluate market performance. The results from this study showed a positive marketing margin in study markets for all cattle categories, the relatively high Gini coefficient of 0.65, and Lorenz curves revealing that in some markets 20% of traders control about 48% of the market share which is an indication of high market concentration. The high Gini coefficient and positive marketing margin obtained imply that study markets were highly concentrated but profitable which is an indication of inequality in the markets. The main barriers to entry in these livestock markets included lack of adequate market information, high operational capital requirements, and high costs of transporting animals. In conclusion, cattle marketing within western Kenya is profitable. However, the high concentration index in markets and presence of entry barriers including lack of flow of information on sources of livestock for trade, mechanism of price setting within markets’ high capital outlay, may encourage poor trade practices which may compromise biosecurity standards within markets, and hence necessitating increased risk for spread of livestock diseases and even zoonoses to connected farms and systems.

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18.
Many economically important cattle diseases spread between herds through livestock movements. Traditionally, most transmission models have assumed that all purchased cattle carry the same risk of generating outbreaks in the destination herd. Using data on bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scotland as a case example, this study provides empirical and theoretical evidence that the risk of disease transmission varies substantially based on the animal and herd demographic characteristics at the time of purchase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that purchasing pregnant heifers and open cows sold with a calf at foot were associated with an increased risk of beef herds being seropositive for BVDV. Based on the results from a dynamic within-herd simulation model, these findings may be partly explained by the age-related probability of animals being persistently infected with BVDV as well as the herd demographic structure at the time of animal introductions. There was also evidence that an epidemiologically important network statistic, “betweenness centrality” (a measure frequently associated with the potential for herds to acquire and transmit disease), was significantly higher for herds that supplied these particular types of replacement beef cattle. The trends for dairy herds were not as clear, although there was some evidence that open heifers and open lactating cows were associated with an increased risk of BVDV. Overall, these findings have important implications for developing simulation models that more accurately reflect the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases.  相似文献   

19.
The movements of cattle at 12 livestock auction markets were observed to determine the possible causes of trauma leading to carcase bruising. Design faults included right-angled bends in races, dead ends, flooring with insufficient slope or grip, and steps. Sliding gates were often misused for goading cattle. Projecting fittings and square-edged corners were potentially injurious; conversely, rounded posts and curved races assisted the flow of cattle with minimal impacts. At all the markets, some cattle were hit directly and poked with wooden sticks, and the variations in their use could partially explain the differences between the markets in the prevalence of carcase bruising. Most harder hits were directed at less valuable parts of the body, such as the spine, hips and shoulders, and a survey of bruising at the abattoir showed that these were the areas with most bruising. In this survey of 48,926 carcases, the overall level of commercially significant bruising of 4.1 per cent was lower than the 6.5 per cent found in a previous survey. Carcases of cattle from markets had a greater incidence and severity of bruising (P<0.001) than those arriving directly from farms or dealers. Carcase bruising in young bulls was less (P<0.001) than in heifers and steers.  相似文献   

20.

Background

Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs.

Methods

Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated.

Results

Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data.

Conclusion

The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.  相似文献   

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