Potential effects of climate change on the growth of lodgepole pine across diameter size classes and ecological regions

We examined 65 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) sites in Alberta using a dendrochronological approach in order to examine the relationships between climate and growth of lodgepole pine across elevational ecoregions and diameter size classes. The 4 elevational ecoregions sampled included the Boreal Highlands (BH: 13 sites); the Foothills (FH: 36 sites); a grouping of the montane and subalpine zones of the southern Rocky Mountains (RM: 12 sites); and the montane zone of the Cypress Hills (CH: 4 sites). The first diameter size class was comprised of the three largest (top) diameter trees at each site. The tree list of each plot was ranked, then divided into three groups of equal basal area and the tree at the midpoint of each group (small, medium, and large) was selected for the other three size classes. Annual growth in basal area of lodgepole pine was generally sensitive to heat and moisture stress in late summer of the previous year, the degree of winter harshness, and the timing of the start of the growing season. Growth was inhibited by low temperature in all winter months at the most northern BH sites which had the coldest winters, but this effect was interrupted in some of the midwinter months in the more southerly sites in the RM, and we postulated this was due to the damaging influences of Chinook winds. Interannual growth patterns were strongly correlated between top diameter trees and the other classes, and trees of all diameter classes generally responded to climate in the same way, which indicated that it is sufficient to sample only the largest diameter trees in a stand to provide insight into growth–climate relationships. The forecasted growth estimates indicate that future climate warming will negatively impact the productivity of lodgepole pine in the FH, the heart of lodgepole distribution and productivity in Alberta.     

What loggers leave behind: Impacts on big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) commercial populations and potential for post-logging recovery in the Brazilian Amazon

The sustainability of current harvest practices for high-value Meliaceae can be assessed by quantifying logging intensity and projecting growth and survival by post-logging populations over anticipated intervals between harvests. From 100%-area inventories of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) covering 204 ha or more at eight logged and unlogged forest sites across southern Brazilian Amazonia, we report generally higher landscape-scale densities and smaller population-level mean diameters in eastern forests compared to western forests, where most commercial stocks survive. Density of trees ≥20 cm diameter varied by two orders of magnitude and peaked at 1.17 ha⁻¹. Size class frequency distributions appeared unimodal at two high-density sites, but were essentially amodal or flat elsewhere; diameter increment patterns indicate that populations were multi- or all-aged. At two high-density sites, conventional logging removed 93–95% of commercial trees (≥45 cm diameter at the time of logging), illegally eliminated 31–47% of sub-merchantable trees, and targeted trees as small as 20 cm diameter. Projected recovery by commercial stems during 30 years after conventional logging represented 9.9–37.5% of initial densities and was highly dependent on initial logging intensity and size class frequency distributions of commercial trees. We simulated post-logging recovery over the same period at all sites according to the 2003 regulatory framework for mahogany in Brazil, which raised the minimum diameter cutting limit to 60 cm and requires retention during the first harvest of 20% of commercial-sized trees. Recovery during 30 years ranged from approximately 0 to 31% over 20% retention densities at seven of eight sites. At only one site where sub-merchantable trees dominated the population did the simulated density of harvestable stems after 30 years exceed initial commercial densities. These results indicate that 80% harvest intensity will not be sustainable over multiple cutting cycles for most populations without silvicultural interventions ensuring establishment and long-term growth of artificial regeneration to augment depleted natural stocks, including repeated tending of outplanted seedlings. Without improved harvest protocols for mahogany in Brazil as explored in this paper, future commercial supplies of this species as well as other high-value tropical timbers are endangered. Rapid changes in the timber industry and land-use in the Amazon are also significant challenges to sustainable management of mahogany.     

2种热带珍稀果树蛋黄果和蛋黄桃榄果在粤西引种试验及其发展潜力分析

从国外引进两种珍稀果树蛋黄果和蛋黄桃榄果,在粤西地区进行引种栽培试验以各个果树品种的生长量、保存率和结果情况来评价各品种的适应性,最后对两种果树在我国的发展潜力作了分析和预测。     

Height-to-diameter ratios with temporal and dendro/morphometric variables for Brazilian pine in south Brazil

Height-to-diameter ratios(HD) are an important measure of the stability,density and competition of forest stands.It reflects the vertical growth of the trees,the vulnerability of the forest canopy structure and influences volumetric production.HD ratios vary according to tree size,availability of resources for growth,stand density and species composition.Data were taken from 210 trees and a regression technique of generalized linear models for the HD ratio applicable for forest structure conservation was developed.The objective of this study was to model the HD ratios of dominant and co-dominant trees of Araucaria angustifolia according to morphometric,dendrometric,annual diameter increment,stand density,and age variables in three sites in southern Brazil.The results show that the HD ratio decreases with increasing age,crown area and basal area,and increases with stand density and annual diameter increment.Accuracy of the developed equations was demonstrated by the values of deviation,Bayesian and Akaike criteria.The results are of interest to forest managers since they make decisions about silvicultural operations.Growth continuity and forest production indicate that any intervention should be directed at younger trees of smaller sizes,and that one of the main management factors for stand stability and growth is the formation of the stand and its capture of light.     

Resin tapping in Pinus pinaster: effects on growth and response function to climate

Pinus pinaster is of great ecological and economic importance and has traditionally been subjected to intensive uses such as wood and resin extraction. In the last decade, dendrochronological methods are increasingly being used to analyze the effects of climatic factors on the growth of the maritime pine, although tapped trees were generally avoided because it was thought that their growth was affected by resin extraction. In Spain, however, it is hard to find a long-lived forest of P. pinaster that has not been subjected to tapping for resin. In the present paper, we performed dendrochronological analyses of this species from wood cores and cross sections taken from both resin-tapped trees and resin-untapped trees killed by a fire in 2008 in the central Iberian region. On the one hand, we reconstructed the history of forest management by means of analysis of resin scars in the cross sections of resin-tapped trees. This facet of dendrochronological dating had not heretofore been developed, and little is therefore known about it. We dated 46 scars, which indicate a history of intensive resin extraction in the 1920–1950 period. Moreover, we attempted to answer the question: Have the old resin extractions in P. pinaster precluded the use of their growth rings for dendrochronological and dendroclimatic studies? We found that resin extraction did not alter general short-wavelength variability, and we developed a local chronology with all synchronized series, and the response function with respect to climate is similar to other oldest P. pinaster forests studied in Spain. The information we have recorded can be of use for providing tools to land managers for interpreting forest dynamics in resin-tapped regions.     

Does reverse growth dominance develop in old plantations of Eucalyptus saligna?

Patterns of stand growth and dominance among individual trees change through stand development. We tested a prediction that large, old plantations of Eucalyptus saligna (Sm.) in Hawaii and Brazil would show a pattern of “reverse” growth dominance, with the largest trees contributing more to stand biomass than to current stand increment. This pattern might develop if the largest trees accounted for a large portion of the total resource use of the stand, but were less efficient at utilizing resources to produce stemwood. The 70-year-old plantation in Hawaii had a stem mass of 610 Mg/ha, compared with 325 Mg/ha in the 66-year-old Brazil plantation. Cumulative frequency plots for both sites showed that dominant trees comprised a very large proportion of total stand mass; the largest 20% of the trees accounted for 50% and 30% of the total stand mass in Hawaii and Brazil, respectively. Contrary to expectations, the largest trees continued to produce a disproportionately large amount of total stand growth, with the largest 20% of trees accounting for 60% (Hawaii) and 40% (Brazil) of stand growth. The frequency distributions resulted in positive growth dominance coefficients (similar to Gini coefficients) of 0.14 for Hawaii and 0.09 for Brazil, rather than negative values that would indicate that reverse growth dominance. The failure of these monoculture Eucalyptus stands to develop reverse growth dominance contrasts starkly with a variety of studies with pine species, which tend to show neutral-to-reverse growth dominance. Indeed, continued dominance of large trees suggests the trees might respond well to silvicultural treatments such as thinning or fertilization. Future work that contrasts patterns of growth dominance among species will be important as a foundation for developing generalizations about trends in growth dominance with stand development.     

Evaluating the suitability of nine shelterbelt species for dendrochronological purposes in the Canadian Prairies

Shelterbelts have played an important role in prairie agriculture since the late 1800s; however, little is known about how these shelterbelts may be affected by climate change. The objective of this study was to determine if shelterbelt species, which are heavily influenced by human activity, express a common radial-growth signal within and between trees. The study focused on the annual tree-ring growth of the nine most common shelterbelt species of the Canadian Prairies: Salix acutifolia (Acute willow), Caragana arborescens (caragana, or Siberian pea shrub), Picea pungens (Colorado spruce), Fraxinus pennsylvanica (green ash), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), Acer negundo (Manitoba maple), Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine), Ulmus pumila (Siberian elm) and Picea glauca (white spruce). Tree core samples were collected near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan using traditional dendrochronological methods. The standardized growth of each species was compared with historical homogenized climate data in order to determine the key monthly climate variables impacting each species. Prior to this analysis, little was known about the suitability of six of these nine species for dendrochronological purposes. It was found that all species crossdate at a significant level, and that the three most significantly correlated climate factors are able to account for up to 37 % of the annual variation in tree-ring growth. The findings of this study suggest that all nine species are suitable, to varying degrees, for future dendrochronological research in the Canadian Prairies as well as having implications for shelterbelt systems elsewhere in the world. The top four species based on four ranking criteria (interseries correlation, mean sensitivity, climate explanatory power, and commonality) were white spruce, acute willow, caragana, and Manitoba maple, and initial results suggest that all species have the potential to be investigated in greater depth.     

Damage to Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa) during selective timber harvesting in Northern Bolivia

The success of multiple forest management systems is contingent on a variety of social, economic, biophysical, and institutional factors, including the integration of timber and non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction and management. Selective logging for timber is increasingly taking place in forests where the collection of Brazil nuts, a high-value Amazonian NTFP, also occurs. We report on logging damage to Brazil nut trees in three certified timber concessions in Northern Bolivia from which timber is harvested using reduced-impact logging (RIL) guidelines and nuts are gathered yearly from the ground by local people. Observed frequencies of logging damage to Brazil nut trees were low, likely mirroring the low intensity of timber harvesting (∼0.5 trees/ha and ∼5 m³/ha) being currently applied across the study area. Of the trees ≥10 cm in diameter at breast height about 0.1 Brazil nut trees and 0.4 timber species per hectare suffered some degree of logging damage. Crown loss was the predominant damage type for Brazil nut trees accounting for 50% of all damage. In spite of the observed low rates of tree damage, we further recommend that RIL guidelines be amended to include the pre-harvest marking of pre-reproductive Brazil nut trees along with the future crop trees of commercial timber species. Further refining directional felling to reduce crown damage to Brazil nut trees would also serve to help maintain nut yields in the long term.     

A comparison of wetland tree growth response to hydrologic regime in Louisiana and South Carolina

Numerous investigations have examined the growth of wetland tree species under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Most studies have compared flooded versus non-flooded conditions in greenhouses or in one to a few field sites near each other or within the same region. Comparisons of wetland tree growth among widely separated areas of the country are rare. This study compared the diameter growth of Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora, Nyssa aquatica, and Taxodium distichum trees from Louisiana (Gulf Coastal Plain) and South Carolina (Atlantic Coastal Plain). In both regions, individual trees were distributed along a gradient of hydrologic regimes from infrequent to permanent flooding. Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora was restricted to periodically flooded sites in both regions. Within these sites, this species showed little response to differences in mean water depth. In contrast, significant differences among hydrologic regimes were detected for N. aquatica in both regions. In Louisiana, patterns of growth response did not correlate with the gradient of hydrologic regimes, but in South Carolina maximum growth was inversely related to mean water levels during the growing season. Maximum growth of T. distichum trees was observed at sites with shallow, permanent flooding in both regions.     

Tree species growth under a rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantation: native restoration via enrichment planting in southern Bahia,Brazil

Enrichment planting is a technique that is gaining recognition for its potential to restore native forests. Due to the steep economic trade-offs involved and dearth of silvicultural and ecological knowledge about native flora, however, it remains unclear whether it has promise for widespread application. Focusing on growth performance, this study explores the restoration potential of twenty-one native tree species 3 years after planting in the understory of a rubber plantation in southern Bahia, Brazil. We tested the effects of slope, aspect, successional guild and basal area of the overstory rubber trees on the enriched species’ height, root collar diameter, and diameter at breast height. Height was the growth parameter that most differentiated species, with Parkia pendula, Sloanea monosperma, and Tachigali densiflora being three of the most successful species. Pioneer species grew faster than the non-pioneer species. Overstory basal area was the most important variable influencing the performance of the planted tree seedlings, while aspect and slope were less important. For every additional unit of basal area per hectare of rubber, there was an incremental decrease in the growth rates of the enrichment species. This suggests that the tree species are likely limited by available light, and that there are distinct trade-offs between overstory rubber density and understory tree species growth that are important to consider when accelerating forest recovery by using enrichment planting techniques.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees in mixed continuous cover forests in Iranian Caspian forests

The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our growth model.In each plot,we measured variables such as total tree height(m),diameter at breast height(DBH)(cm)and basal area of larger trees as cumulative basal areas of trees(GCUM)ofDBH[5 cm.The empirical data were analyzed using regression analysis.There was a statistically significant nonlinear function between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area of the individual trees and competition as explanatory variables.Reference area from the largest trees,was circular plot with area of 0.1 ha.GCUM was estimated for trees of DBH>5 cm.Furthermore,we investigated the dependencies of diameter growth of different species on stand density at different levels of competition,and diameter development of individual trees through time.The results indicate that competition caused by larger neighborhood trees has a negative effect on growth.In addition,the maximum diameter increment is affected by competition level.Therefore,the maximum diameter increment of species occurs when the trees are about 35–40 cm in dense-forest(40 to 0 m^2 per ha)and when the trees are about 60 to 70 cm in very dense forest(60 to 0 m^2 per ha)which is more likely to Caspian natural forests with high level density due to uneven-aged composition of stands.     

Propagation method influences first year field survival and growth of Paulownia

Field trials at three locations were used to evaluate survival and early growth of Paulownia elongata, P. fortunei, and P. × 'Henan 1' plants produced from seeds, shoot cuttings, and micropropagated shoots. One year after field establishment, trees produced by either vegetative propagation method survived with higher frequency and were taller and of greater diameter breast height than trees grown from seed. The influence of propagation method was more pronounced in P. elongata and P. fortunei than in P. × 'Henan 1'. Survival frequency was similar for each species/hybrid, but both species were taller than P. × 'Henan 1' across propagation method and site. Field site had a pronounced influence on tree survival and height. Species/hybrid differences were not detected at the site that promoted the greatest tree growth, but P. elongata outperformed P. fortunei and P. × 'Henan 1' at the two sub-optimal sites. Clones within species/hybrid produced through micropropagation differed in survival frequency, height, and diameter breast height. Under the conditions used for this study, Paulownia field survival and early growth in central North Carolina was improved by using P. elongata or P. fortunei produced by rooting shoot cuttings or micropropagated shoots. Significant variation among clones within these species demonstrated the potential benefit of identifying superior clones to improve first year field survival and growth.     

Dynamics and determinants of Quercus alba seedling success following savanna encroachment and restoration

The scattered tree layer that defines savannas is important for structuring the understory community and determining patterns of overstory recruitment. However, encroachment by woody plants has altered overstory tree densities and regeneration dynamics. We characterized seedling success of the savanna-forming species Quercus alba within Midwestern (USA) oak savannas that had been degraded by encroachment (control; n = 4) or experimentally restored by removal of encroaching woody vegetation (treatment; n = 4). In early 2004, 981 seedlings were transplanted along transects radiating from tree boles of overstory Q. alba trees to inter-canopy gaps and monitored for three growing seasons. Seedlings in restored sites had greater survival (>2×), height growth (by >50%), and basal diameter growth (by >20%). In general, seedling survival and growth parameters increased with distance from overstory trees and were greatest in inter-canopy gaps of restored sites. By the final growing season (2006), the seedling survival-by-distance from tree correlation was stronger in control (r² = 0.25) than treatment sites (r² = 0.18), due to relatively uniform (and greater) survival at all distances from trees in treatment sites. In 2006, growth parameters (seedling height, diameter, Δ height, Δ diameter, and # leaves) were significantly (and more strongly) positively correlated with distance from trees in treatment sites. However, seedling herbivory was also greater after treatment and increased with distance from overstory trees. To understand seedling/microenvironment relationships, we created logistic (survival) and linear regression models (Δ height, Δ basal diameter, # leaves in 2006). Control seedling models had consistently greater predictive power and included more variables, suggesting that savanna restoration may decouple seedlings from their microenvironments, potentially by decreasing competition for limiting resources. Encroachment of the savannas in this study is limiting regeneration of Q. alba, suggesting substantially altered regeneration dynamics from those under which these savannas originally formed. Initial responses from our test of restoration, however, were promising and mechanical encroachment removal may be a means to promote overstory regeneration of this species. Finally, the savannas in this study appear inherently unstable and a scattered canopy tree configuration is unlikely to persist without regular disturbance, even in the restoration sites. Repeated mechanical thinning treatments with selected retention of recruiting Q. alba individuals or reintroduction of understory fire or grazing animals may be potential mechanisms for promoting long-term persistence of savannas at these sites.     

Effects of shelter tubes on hardwood tree establishment in western Oregon silvopastures

Honey locust (Gleditsia triacanthos), black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) are warm season forage trees with potential to efficiently share site resources with cool season pasture plants in Pacific Northwest silvopastures. Establishment of hardwood trees can be difficult, however, because of feeding damage from wildlife and livestock. This study compared establishment and growth of trees planted in 88 cm tall solid plastic shelter tubes to 88 cm tall plastic mesh tubes, used to protect trees from animal damage. Three replications were established in May 1995 for each of the three tree species on a hill pasture near Corvallis, Oregon. Initial tree survival during the first summer and winter following planting was higher in shelter tubes than in mesh tubes. At the end of the third growing season, 58% of black locust and 94% of honey locust trees in shelter tubes were still alive compared to only 14% of black locust and 47% of honey locust in mesh tubes. Few honey mesquite trees survived regardless of tube type used. Average three-year total height growth for black locust was increased by 650% and basal diameter growth by 380% within shelter tubes, while honey locust height growth was increased by 300% and diameter growth was increased by 150% compared to trees in mesh tubes. However, shelter tube trees tended to be taller relative to their diameter and had difficulty standing upright if tubes were removed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Corresponding patterns of site quality,decline and tree growth in a sessile oak stand

This study focuses on two rarely studied aspects of oak decline: relations with site characteristics and effects on tree growth. The study was carried out in a 5.5 ha stand in Hungary which is strongly affected by oak decline. The nearly pure sessile oak (Quercus petraea) stand of mostly coppice origin was 90 years old at the beginning of the study. Within-stand site heterogeneity was described by the herbaceous vegetation. Four ecological site types were distinguished by the species composition of herbs, and characterized by the ecological indicator values of the species. Tree growth between 1987 and 1993 was measured, and tree vigour was estimated from visual characteristics five times between 1987 and 1993. Potential volume increment of declining trees was estimated with the growth rates of healthy trees of the same size. Volume increment loss caused by oak decline was also assessed. Significant positive relationships were found between tree vigour and tree size and between tree vigour and tree growth. The growth of seriously declining trees dropped to almost one-half of that of healthy ones. Growth reduction of living trees at the stand level amounted to 5.4%, whereas growth reduction of all trees, including those that died during the observation period, amounted to 19.9% of the potential growth. Tree size and growth were greater on better sites. A strong relationship was also found between tree vigour and site type, but sessile oak was more susceptible to decline at better sites.     

Evaluation of native tree species for the rehabilitation of deforested areas in a Mexican cloud forest

Four native tree species (Liquidambar styraciflua, Juglans pyriformis, Podocarpus matudae, and Carpinus caroliniana) were evaluated for their suitability in rehabilitating degraded areas of Mexican cloud forest. Plant survival and growth in height and diameter were determined in three mixed-experimental plantations with different land use histories; their performance was compared with two on-farm plantations started by landowners for forest restoration. Nearby forest fragments were controls for soil compaction. An experimental plantation with remnant trees had the highest plant survival (82%), height, basal diameter and relative growth rate. The plantation with the steepest slope had high plant survival (63%) and growth. The plantation characterized by dominance of grasses and compacted soils had the lowest survival (22%) and growth. On-farm plantations had good establishment of planted trees (5–10 species planted), and facilitated the recruitment of 9–11 woody species. Carpinus and Liquidambar appear to be suitable species for reforestation in all these areas. Podocarpus grew relatively slowly, although it performed well in two experimental sites. Juglans had high survival (76%) under the stressful conditions of the most adverse site, and therefore may be useful for rehabilitation of degraded sites. Differences among species and sites strongly suggest that species success depends on plantation site quality.     

Harvesting intensity affects forest structure and composition in an upland Amazonian forest

Forest structure and floristic composition were studied in a series of 0.5 ha natural forest plots at four sites near Porto Trombetas in Pará State, Brazil, 11–12 years after being subjected to differing levels of above-ground biomass harvest and removal. In addition to undisturbed control plots, experimental treatments included: removal of most trees ≥45 cm DBH (low intensity harvest); removal of trees <20 and ≥60 cm DBH (moderate intensity harvest); clear-cutting (100% above-ground biomass removal). Post-harvest basal area growth generally increased with harvest intensity, and total basal areas for trees ≥5 cm DBH were, at the time of our study, 60% (in the clear-cut) to about 80% of those in the control plots. Biomass harvests stimulated recruitment and growth of residual trees, particularly in the smaller diameter classes, but had little effect on species richness for small trees, seedlings, vine, herbs, and grasses. Species richness for trees ≥15 cm DBH was greater in the control and low-intensity (74–75 species) than in the moderate intensity (47 species) and clear-cut (26 species) treatment plots. While the tree flora within all harvest treatments was broadly similar to the undisturbed (control) plots and included similar numbers of species of the major plant families typical of the surrounding forests, the more intensive harvest treatments, especially the clear-cut, were dominated by a higher proportion of short-lived, early successional tree species.     

Individual-tree diameter growth models for black spruce and jack pine plantations in northern Ontario

Individual-tree distance independent diameter growth models were developed for black spruce and jack pine plantations. Data used in this study came via stem analysis on 1170 black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and 800 jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) trees sampled from 75 stands of 25 even-aged monospecific plantations for each species in the Canadian boreal forest region of northern Ontario. Of the 75 stands, 50 were randomly selected for each species and all trees from these stands were used for model development. Trees from the remaining stands were used for model evaluation.A nonlinear mixed-effects approach was applied in fitting the diameter growth models. The predictive accuracy of the models was improved by including random effects coefficients. Four selection criteria - random, dominant or codominant, tree size close to quadratic mean diameter, and small sized - were evaluated for accuracy in predicting random effects for a new stand using the developed models. Random effects predicted based on trees selected using the random selection criterion provided more accurate diameter predictions than those using trees obtained via other selection criteria for both species. The models developed here are very important to forest managers as the diameters predicted by these models or, their stand-level summaries (i.e., basal area, average diameter), are used as inputs in any forest growth and yield models. In addition, individual-tree diameter growth models can be used to directly forecast changes in diameter distribution of stands.     

广东镇海林场引种花梨初期生长表现

花梨在广东镇海林场引种栽培3a,生长调查结果表明,该树种在引种地生长表现较好,2a生平均树高2．48m,平均径1．78cm。立地对花梨生长的影响显著,树高、胸径和冠幅均以较好的立地条件生长好。各坡位以山坡下生长最好,2a生平均高达2．88m,径2．29cm;中坡生长次之,上部生长差,高仅1．94m,径1．29cm。各坡向相比,西坡径高生长量比东坡分别大9．6％和4．1％。造林时要因地制宜,要培育大径材必须用好地栽培。     

Timber yield projections for tropical tree species: The influence of fast juvenile growth on timber volume recovery

Most growth and yield models for tropical tree species use diameter growth data obtained from permanent sample plots. A potential disadvantage of this data source is that slow-growing, suppressed juvenile trees are included of which only a small fraction will attain harvestable size. If this is the case, the average growth rate of extant juvenile trees will be lower than the historical, juvenile growth rate of trees of harvestable size. Thus, if juvenile growth rates are obtained from permanent plots, future timber yield may be underestimated. To determine the magnitude of this effect we simulated tree growth based on two types of diameter growth data: long-term tree-ring data from harvestable trees (‘lifetime growth data’) and growth data of the last 10 years from trees of all sizes (‘plot-type growth data’). The latter data type is a proxy for growth data from permanent sample plots. Second, we evaluated which percentage of harvestable timber volume at initial harvest is available at second harvest using lifetime growth data. We obtained tree-ring data from 89 to 98 individuals of three Bolivian timber species over their entire size range. Based on these data tree growth simulations were performed for two scenarios: a second harvest in 20, and in 40 years. A realistic degree of growth autocorrelation was incorporated in the growth projections, for both the lifetime and the plot-type growth data.