林木生长和收获预估模型的研究动态

从近年来林木生长和收获模型的研究中,可以看出有如下的发展动向:（1）由林分水平模型向径级水平模型、单木水平模型转变;（2）从林木的自然生长模型发展来考虑人为育林措施的经营模型;（3）由简单的人工同龄纯林模型深化到复杂的天然异龄混交林;（4）关注点从测树学调查因子的经验性模型转向生理生态的机理性模型。还就今后我国的林木生长模型研究提出了几点建议。     

Evaluation of growth response,stand value and financial return for pre-commercially thinned jack pine stands in Northwestern Ontario

This study examined the impact of pre-commercial thinning (PCT) on tree growth, product recovery, stand value and financial return in jack pine stands in Northwestern Ontario. Ten sites composed of both control and PCT stands representing various stand densities (2000–6000 trees/ha) and stand ages (26–36 years old) were selected for this study. Three thousand and eighty-two trees were measured for DBH and total height, and were reconstructed in 3-D using a taper equation for jack pine. The reconstructed virtual trees were then “sawn” using the software package Optitek to obtain optimal lumber value recovery, which was then used to determine total product value per tree and financial return. The quadratic mean DBHs of trees from the PCT stands were significantly larger than those from the control stands for all 10 sites. Six of ten PCT stands had significantly taller trees than did the controls of the same sites. With increasing stand density, tree DBH decreased in the control stands while no consistent pattern could be recognized for the DBH of the PCT stands. The increment in average DBH due to PCT increased with increasing thinning intensity. PCT reduced total tree volume per hectare, benefited merchantable stem volume per hectare, and improved the total lumber volume and value recovery per hectare. On average, the PCT stands produced approximately $2760 and $1770/ha (or 19.6 and 16.1%) more product value per hectare for the dimension mill and stud mill, respectively. PCT also significantly reduced logging and lumber conversion costs. Higher total product values and lower total costs resulted in higher benefit/cost (B/C) ratios in the PCT stands than did in the control stands. The increased financial return due to PCT is associated with the magnitude of difference in quadratic mean DBH resulting from PCT. The B/C ratio difference between control and PCT stands increased with increasing thinning intensity. Overall, this study indicates that PCT appears to be an economically viable silvicultural investment for jack pine stands in Northwestern Ontario.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees in mixed continuous cover forests in Iranian Caspian forests

The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our growth model.In each plot,we measured variables such as total tree height(m),diameter at breast height(DBH)(cm)and basal area of larger trees as cumulative basal areas of trees(GCUM)ofDBH[5 cm.The empirical data were analyzed using regression analysis.There was a statistically significant nonlinear function between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area of the individual trees and competition as explanatory variables.Reference area from the largest trees,was circular plot with area of 0.1 ha.GCUM was estimated for trees of DBH>5 cm.Furthermore,we investigated the dependencies of diameter growth of different species on stand density at different levels of competition,and diameter development of individual trees through time.The results indicate that competition caused by larger neighborhood trees has a negative effect on growth.In addition,the maximum diameter increment is affected by competition level.Therefore,the maximum diameter increment of species occurs when the trees are about 35–40 cm in dense-forest(40 to 0 m^2 per ha)and when the trees are about 60 to 70 cm in very dense forest(60 to 0 m^2 per ha)which is more likely to Caspian natural forests with high level density due to uneven-aged composition of stands.     

Economic evaluation of cyclic regimes in beech (fagus sylvatica L.)

A general model for comparing the profitability of natural regeneration in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) with planting of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) is developed. The model is basically a method of comparing a series of net present values. An example of using the model is given: BEECH (90–110) denotes a cyclic regime in which regeneration is initiated at age 90 of a stand, and the canopy trees are cleared at age 110. This regime is compared with the alternative of planting Norway spruce. Economic data used for the comparison are representative of the southeastern regions of Denmark. The conclusion of the comparison is as follows: BEECH (90–110) is superior to planting of Norway spruce for required real rates of return up to 3–4%. For higher required rates of return planting of Norway spruce is preferable.     

Precommercial thinning of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.): Early effects of stump height on growth and natural pruning of potential crop trees

Abstract

This paper reports the early effects of stump height on the growth and natural pruning of potential crop trees after precommercial thinning of a young stand of naturally regenerated beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Denmark. The experiment comprises five treatments based on combinations of three grades of precommercial thinning and three stump heights. Treatments include the unthinned control, thinning only of whips and wolf trees (using low stumps), and thinning for potential crop trees using low, medium or high stumps. All treatments were replicated three times. Stump heights averaged 10, 90 or 230 cm, respectively. Pretreatment stem number (live trees) varied from 17,500 to 41,000 ha^?1. In the potential crop tree treatment, post-treatment stem number ranged from 4750 to 9500 ha^?1. Following two growth seasons, the quantity of stump regrowth increased with increasing stump height, the rate of stump regrowth increased with increasing stump height, the diameter growth of potential crop trees increased with decreasing stump height, the increase in stand height did not depend on stump height or post-treatment stem number, and the natural pruning of potential crop trees increased with increasing stump height. It remains to be seen whether these trends hold in the long run, and whether additional economic return from the increase in wood quality with increasing stump height compensates for the reduction in diameter growth.     

Financial performance of mixed-age naturally regenerated loblolly-hardwood stands in the south central United States

To estimate the financial performance of a natural mixed species and mixed-age management in the loblolly-pine forest type, we examined 991 FIA plots in the south central states. The plots were of the loblolly pine forest type, mixed-age, and had been regenerated naturally. We gauged the financial performance of each plot from the equivalent annual income (EAI) produced by growth and harvest, between two successive inventories. The real price EAI (REAI) measured the financial performance based on the real price change, net of inflation, between surveys. The constant price EAI (CEAI) measured stand productivity at prices at the time of the first survey. Thus, the REAI is a measure of real economic performance, including timber growth and price changes. In contrast, the CEAI is a quantity index of timber growth, the growth of each product being weighted by its price. During the period 1977–1994, the main determinant of the REAI was the price change. Due to an overall favorable price trend, the mean REAI ($158 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) was much greater than the mean CEAI ($24 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Due to increasing prices, the best performing plots had very high stocking levels. Thus, the best financial strategy was to hold the stock, making the opportunity cost of conservation negative. Instead, CEAI tended to be lower on stands with high basal area, and higher in stands with many trees, a low share of hardwoods, and many trees near sawtimber size.     

棋盘山风景区森林林内景观质量评价研究

以沈阳棋盘山风景区主要林内景观类型为评判对象,选取了52个典型的景观样本,采用美景度评判法进行评价,每个林内景观的喜好度值以标准化公式进行处理,在此基础上,运用多元数量化理论-Ⅰ的线性模型建立了棋盘山风景区森林林内景观的数量化评价模型。建模结果显示,影响该区域林内景观质量的主要因子依次为林下植被总盖度、树干形态、郁闭度、自然整枝、坡度以及枯树倒木。同时,将所得的数量化评价模型应用于实际评价中,所有景观样本的得分值总和为12.324,表明棋盘山风景区的森林林内景观质量总体上并不高,有必要进行林相的改造和建设。     

Autumn Frost Damage on Young Picea sitchensis 2. Shoot Frost Hardening, and the Probability of Frost Damage in Scotland

The natural increase in frost hardiness of detached shoots ofPicea sltchensis during August to November was measured usinga programmable freezing chamber. Oregon, Queen Charlotte Islandsand Alaskan provenances were compared, and the effects on hardeningof long days, warm temperatures and frosts were determined.A computer model was constructed to mimic the observed patternsof autumn frost hardening, as functions of air minimum temperatures,daylengths and the occurrence of frosts. The model was used(a) to describe the pattern of autumn frost hardening at differentsites in northern Britain, using past meteorological records,and hence (b) to determine when frosts occurred that might havedamaged young trees. The model accurately predicted known instancesof autumn frost damage at Kirroughtree and Carnwath. The predicted probability of autumn frost damage on young treesof P. sitchensis in upland areas of Scotland was much lowerthan that previously predicted for spring frost damage. Theestimated return time for autumn frost damage to an Oregon provenanceat Eskdalemuir was 8.3 years, and the return time for a Q.C.I.provenance was longer than 10 years. Most damaging frosts occurredin October, but frosts like those on 13–15 October 1971,which followed warm weather and caused wide spread damage inScotland, have been quite rare. Alaskan provenances would rarelybe damaged by autumn frosts, nor would trees of Q.C.I. provenancegrowing in lowland areas of Scotland, or at Masset on the QueenCharlotte Islands.     

Large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb.) plantation — An age old agroforestry system in Eastern Himalayas

Large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb.) is a shade loving plant grown in the Indian hill states of Sikkim and Dargeeling district of West Bengal. About 30 important tree species are used to provide shade to the cardamom plants. Alnus nepalensis, a deciduous, nitrogen fixing and fast growing tree, is the species most commonly underplanted with cardamom. In addition to providing shade, it is also used for fuelwood. The old trees are cut and young plants coming up are allowed to grow in cyclic order. The quick decomposing leaf litter of A. nepalensis also fertilises the cardamom plants. The nitrogen added to the soil in this way has been found to be as high as 249 kg/ha. Large cardamom thrives well in a moist soil, which is maintained by water diverted from seasonal springs on the upper slopes. The system is well suited to conserving soil, water and tree cover of the characteristically steep slopes of the region. Moreover, the management inputs required for growing cardamom are low but the crop gives a higher financial return than rice or maize. The shade trees used in the system are also a major source of fuel, fodder and timber, especially as access to state owned forests is restricted by legislation. However, increasing incidence of viral chirkey and foorkey disease, panicle rot and capsule borer are reducing the cardamom productivity. It has been observed that integrating dairying and apiculture will further augment profitability from large cardamom agroforestry system.     

Effect of natural root grafting on growth response of jack pine (Pinus banksiana) after commercial thinning

Commercial thinning is a silvicultural treatment used to increase the merchantable yield of residual trees. Growth response to thinning, however, is highly variable and discrepancies between studies remain largely unexplained. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effect of natural root grafting on growth response after thinning. We excavated root systems of jack pine (Pinus banksiana) in five naturally regenerated stands, in which three had been commercially thinned 6 and 9 years earlier. Radial growth before and after thinning was examined using dendrochronological techniques. Thinning increased radial growth of trees, however growth increments were significantly less for trees that had root grafts with removed trees, while growth of grafted trees was better in unthinned stands. Furthermore, radial growth response of trees grafted to removed trees was smaller than that of non-grafted trees 4 years and more post-thinning. On average, non-grafted stumps survived less than 1 year (0.4 year), while grafted stumps lived 2.0 years after the stem was removed. Differences in growth response to thinning between grafted and non-grafted trees thus appear to be linked to the support of roots and stumps of removed trees by live residual trees.     

Combining empirical models and the process-based model 3-PG to predict Eucalyptus nitens plantations growth in Spain

Empirical, statistically based models were used to describe the growth and development of Eucalyptus nitens plantations for a range of site productivities and the standard biomass and pulp silvicultural regime currently applied in Northern Spain. The results obtained, along with data gathered from a network of 68 plots, 48 trees felled for biomass estimations and 73 trees sampled for foliar area estimation were used to parameterize the 3-PG model for this species in Northern Spain. Most parameters associated with allometric relationships and partitioning (i.e. bark and branch fraction, basic density, age modifier and mortality) were derived from local data, and the remaining parameters were obtained from published studies on E. nitens or default values previously used for E. globulus. The parameterized model was validated with data from three trials measured from age 3 years until age 8-14 years, and performed better than the empirical model in terms of total stand under bark volume, mean diameter at breast height, basal area and foliar biomass. The process-based model was then used to forecast changes in plantations subjected to a clearwood regime, initializing the model at age 3 years, considering 3 prunings, 2 thinnings and lengthening the rotation to 18 years. This integrated regime was able to provide biomass for bioenergy, pulp or fibreboard wood and also solid wood, with thinning operations assisting the financial viability, and was a potentially good alternative for productive sites.     

Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques

This study presents a model for including natural risks (such as storm or insects) in the calculation of land expectation values. Applying this model, an answer has been found to the question as to whether consideration of risk would lead to changing recommendations regarding the choice of species and the length of rotation periods from the point of view of profitability. The study is based on well-founded, empirical growth data and survival probabilities for a specific region in southern Germany. It shows that spruce is the more profitable species, even if its survival probability is noticeably lower than that of beech, especially when the trees are older. When survival probabilities are considered, the economic superiority of spruce is not affected, but their optimum rotation period is reduced from 90 to 80 years.     

Standardized gum tapping techniques to maximize yield from high-value Indian tree, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sterculia urens</Emphasis>

Industrial applications of natural gums have been expanding tremendously, so gum collection from trees provides an important livelihood for local dwellers in drought-prone Rajasthan and its surroundings states. Traditional gum tapping is crude and unscientific; deep incision, untimely extraction and high concentration of chemicals in gum have affected Sterculia urens species in its natural habitat. In studies 2 years on trees having diameter at breast height >40 cm from natural stands to maximize gum collection and standardize the tapping method (bore holes vs. V blazes), tapping season, chemical and concentration, different tapping techniques were tested. For tapping maximum gum was collected using bore hole. Ethephon was better as extraction chemical than sulphuric acid. Bore-hole tapping with a 5-cm hole and ethephon at 300 mg/mL yielded the most gum (135.20 g/tree). Ethephon at 300 mg/mL yielded the most gum. Ethephon induced gummosis without affecting the health of tree. Tapping seasons also significantly affected the gum yield; the most gum was obtained in April–June.     

Long-term realised and projected growth impacts caused by autumn gum moth defoliation of 2-year-old Eucalyptus nitens plantation trees in Tasmania,Australia

Insect damage to production forests has the potential to reduce financial returns by retarding tree growth and causing mortality, however, long-term realised quantification of these losses is rare. In order to help elucidate economic damage thresholds for making spray decisions we capitalised on a natural outbreak of autumn gum moth, Mnesampela privata, in a 2-year-old Eucalyptus nitens plantation. Following the partial chemical control of this insect outbreak we measured the tree growth variables diameter at breast height over bark and height of five differing tree defoliation classes for 75 months following tree damage. At the end of this period a threshold model was fitted to describe the relationship between tree defoliation and realised tree wood volumes. The model revealed that realised stand wood volume was not significantly affected up until defoliation exceeded 60% and then declined sharply after this defoliation level was reached. Further support for this defoliation threshold was evident from multiple comparisons among defoliation classes that showed 50% defoliated trees did not have significantly different wood volume compared to more lightly defoliated trees, but did have significantly greater wood volume compared to trees that were 72% or more defoliated. To determine if the realised differences in wood volume resulted in differences in yield over a plantation rotation the E. nitens growth model NITGRO was used to on-grow trees to age 15 years for a ‘best case’ (type 1 growth response, constant growth rates from last inventory until harvest) and ‘worst case’ (type 2 growth response, divergent growth rates from last inventory until harvest) scenario. The threshold model was then fitted to the outcomes of both scenarios and the economic consequences of defoliation were clearly dependent on the growth function assumed.     

Spatial structure of genetic variation within populations of forest trees

The spatial pattern and structure of genetic variation are important aspects of the population genetics of forest stands. Combined with limits to seed and pollen dispersal, spatial structure affects the level of inbreeding and the action of natural selection. The genetic constitution of stand regeneration, following different forestry practices, is also influenced by spatial structure. For example, natural regeneration with seed trees involves sampling seed trees from a stand that may be genetically nonhomogeneous. This paper reviews theoretical and empirical results on spatial patterns of genetic variation, produced under limited gene flow and selection, in terms of recently developed spatial statistics (e.g., spatial autocorrelation). Genetic correlations in samples from spatially structured populations are also described, as well as how spatial samples can be used to characterize the structure of genetic variation, and how inferences can be made about (spatially distributed) components of fitness and yield.     

Financial returns, stability and risk of cacao-plantain-timber agroforestry systems in Central America

Diversification of agroecosystems has long been recognized as a sound strategy to cope with price and crop yield variability, thus increasing farm income stability and lowering financial risk. In this study, the financial returns, stability and risk of six cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) – laurel (Cordia alliodora (R&P) Oken) – plantain (Musa AAB) agroforestry systems, and the corresponding monocultures, were compared. Production and cost data were obtained from an on-going eight-year old experiment. The agroforestry systems included a traditional system and a replacement series between cacao (278, 370, 556, 741 and 833 plants ha^–1) and plantain (833, 741, 556, 370 and 278 plants ha^–1) with a constant laurel population (timber tree; 69 trees ha^–1). An ex-post analysis was conducted using experimental and secondary data to build a simulation model over a 12-year period under different price assumptions. The probability distribution functions for the three commodity prices were modeled and simulated through time, accounting for their possible autocorrelation and non-normality. The expected net incomes from the agroforestry systems were considerably higher than from monocultures. The agroforestry systems were also less risky. Agroforestry systems with proportionally more cacao than plantain were less risky, but also less stable. The timber component (C. alliodora) was a key factor in reducing farmer's financial risks. Methodologically, the study illustrates a technique to evaluate both expected returns and the corresponding financial risks to obtain a complete, comparable profile of alternative systems. It shows the need to allow for the possibility of non-normality in the statistical distributions of the variables entering a financial risk and return analysis.     

A stochastic spatial regeneration model for Pinus sylvestris

A simulation model of pine regeneration is presented, based on earlier models and research for natural regeneration of Scots pine in Finland. The model is stochastic, reflecting the unpredictable variation in regeneration results observed in nature. Geographic area, site and stand characteristics and soil preparation affect the simulated regeneration result. The model predicts the amount and quality of seed crop, germination and predation of seeds, and survival and growth of seedlings. The effect of parent trees on seed dispersal, and growth and survival of seedlings is accounted for. At the stand level, the model gives results similar to empirical measurements. The simulation example provided illustrates the effect of density and spatial distribution of the parent tree stand on the regeneration result.     

Modeling frequency distributions of tree height,diameter and crown area by six probability functions for open forests of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus persica</Emphasis> in Iran

The prediction of the distribution of quantitative variables in a forest stand is of great interest to forest managers, for the evaluation of forest resources and scheduling of future silvicultural treatments. The aim of this research was to model the distribution of quantitative variables for Quercus persica in open forests in Iran. To investigate the probability distribution of trees in natural stands, 642 trees were selected for measurement using a systematic random sampling method. Selected trees were measured and data were analyzed. Gamma, beta, normal,lognormal, exponential and Weibull probability distributions were fitted to the height distribution of trees. Variables of distribution functions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Actual probability and probability which derived from functions was compared using Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson–Darling tests. Beta, Weibull and Weibull probability distributions explained the distributions of tree height, DBH and crown area.     

The genetic and economic gains from forest tree breeding programmes in Scandinavia and Finland

Plantations of genetically improved forest trees are critical for economic sustainability in forestry. This review summarizes gains in objective traits and the resulting economic impact of tree breeding programmes in Scandinavia and Finland. Genetic improvement of forest trees in these countries began in the late 1940s, when the first phenotypically superior plus-trees were selected from natural environments. The main findings from this review are that (i) tree breeding can increase volume growth in the range 10–25%, and (ii) the bare land value associated with genetically improved trees gives a better return on investment and a shorter rotation period compared to the unimproved forests. As some Nordic countries are quite dependent on the forest industry, breeding programmes that have resulted in economic gains have been beneficial for society. Growth and wood quality traits are often adversely correlated, and the weighting of traits from an economic perspective could provide an index for determining maximum profit from breeding. Tree breeding faces an array of challenges in the future, such as changes in silviculture, climate, new pests and diseases, and demand for wood-based products.     

Biogeographical distribution limits of Douglas-Fir in Southwest Oregon

Two methods for estimating the distribution limits of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in southwest Oregon, U.S.A., were attempted using a cover-dominance model and a niche-habitat model. The cover-dominance model was based on estimates from 435 plots of cover and frequency of Douglas-fir and other tree species. The niche-habitat model was based on common-garden estimates of 135 genotypic values of Douglas-fir parent trees from 80 locations. Both models indicated that closest proximity to the species edge was in the dry southeastern areas with high sun exposure at low elevations. There was no clear way to choose between models. The niche-habitat model suggested that special problems with natural and artificial regeneration can be expected in the margin near the biogeographical limits. The niche-habitat model also indicated that, to ensure a uniform distribution of adapted crop trees in the margin, a large number of planted seedlings per hectare would be needed. The number increased exponentially from the inner to the outer edge of the margin. The number can be decreased by successful initial establishment, no early thinning, or fewer crop trees per hectare.