Risks for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle farms restocked after the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2001 was used to investigate herd breakdown (HBD) with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in totally restocked herds of cattle. By August 2004, 2941 restocked cattle herds, with cattle movements from before and after 2001, had been tested for bTB for the first time since restocking. A total of 6% (177) of these herds broke down at the first bTB test. A binomial logistic regression model with HBD (at least one reactor bovine) at the first test after restocking as the outcome was used to investigate risks associated with HBD. The final model contained three risk factors. There was an increased risk for HBD in restocked herds with every log increase in herd size with an OR=1.38 (CI 1.16-1.64) to a maximum OR of 10.75. When there was a history of bTB on the restocked farm before 2001 the OR, with CI not including unity, were 5.92, 4.63, 3.8 and 2.9 for last HBD in 2000, 1999, 1998 and 1997, respectively, indicating a persistence in increased risk for restocked herds from farms with a history of HBD in the previous herd before restocking, i.e. a different population of cattle. Finally, for every log increase in the number of cattle purchased from herds with a greater than biennial frequency of testing for bTB in the previous 8 years (i.e. perceived high risk herds for bTB) there was an OR=1.35 (95% CI 1.22-1.49). The maximum OR was 9.27. These results indicate that both introduction of bTB through the purchase of cattle from farms with a high perceived risk of bTB infection and persistence of bTB on the restocked farm, (not the farm's original herd), were associated with an increased risk of HBD in the newly formed herds after restocking.     

Risk of tuberculosis cattle herd breakdowns in Ireland: effects of badger culling effort,density and historic large-scale interventions

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) continues to be a problem in cattle herds in Ireland and Britain. It has been suggested that failure to eradicate this disease is related to the presence of a wildlife reservoir (the badger). A large-scale project was undertaken in the Republic of Ireland during 1997–2002 to assess whether badger removal could contribute to reducing risk of cattle herd breakdowns in four areas. During the period of that “four area” study, there was a significant decrease in risk in intensively culled (removal) areas relative to reference areas. In the present study, we revisit these areas to assess if there were any residual area effects of this former intervention a decade on (2007–2012). Over the study period there was an overall declining trend in bTB breakdown risk to cattle herds. Cattle herds within former removal areas experienced significantly reduced risk of breakdown relative to herds within former reference areas or herds within non-treatment areas (OR: 0.53; P < 0.001). Increased herd breakdown risk was associated with increasing herd size (OR: 1.92-2.03; P < 0.001) and herd bTB history (OR: 2.25-2.40; P < 0.001). There was increased risk of herd breakdowns in areas with higher badger densities, but this association was only significant early in the study (PD*YEAR interaction; P < 0.001). Badgers were culled in areas with higher cattle bTB risk (targeted culling). Risk tended to decline with cumulative culling effort only in three counties, but increased in the fourth (Donegal). Culling badgers is not seen as a viable long-term strategy. However, mixed policy options with biosecurity and badger vaccination, may help in managing cattle breakdown risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-014-0109-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Patterns of delayed detection and persistence of bovine tuberculosis in confirmed and unconfirmed herd breakdowns in cattle and cattle herds in Great Britain

Approximately 1500/6000 cattle farms that were depopulated during the foot and mouth epidemic in GB in 2001 had been repopulated and subjected to two unrestricted (herd considered free from bovine tuberculosis (bTB)) herd tests. Factors associated with herd breakdown(s) (HBD) and individual cattle reactor status at the second test were investigated. There were 96 HBD in total, with a 3-fold increased risk of HBD in herds that had had a HBD at the first test after restocking. Two mixed effect models were used to investigate factors associated with 324/246,060 reactor cattle at the second bTB test; 228 reactors were at confirmed HBD and 96 at unconfirmed HBD; 253 (79%) reactors at the second test were present and test negative at the first test. In confirmed HBD, the odds of cattle reacting were higher if the restocked farm had a history of bTB before 2001 and if the source and restocked farms were high frequency tested (HFT) farms (routine bTB tests at ≥1 per 2 years). Reacting cattle were more likely to have been born on the restocked farm before the first test after FMD and less likely to have been purchased from a low frequency tested (LFT) farm (routine bTB tests at 3-4 year intervals) after the first test compared with a baseline of cattle purchased from a LFT farm before the first test. Unconfirmed HBD at the second test was more likely when the first test was a confirmed HBD and when there was a history of bTB in the restocked farm. In contrast to confirmed HBD, cattle purchased from a LFT farm after the first test were at increased risk of reacting at an unconfirmed HBD at the second test. We conclude that a farm history of bTB suggests persistence of bTB on the farm. Confirmed tests indicate exposure to bTB for some time indicated by the increased risk from HFT source and restocked farms and a farm history of bTB. The risks for reactors are related to the farm and herd and duration of exposure to these risks. Therefore, the spread of bTB to na?ve herds would be reduced if farmers only introduced cattle known not to have been in herds and on farms exposed to bTB. Management of bTB on farms with bTB is complicated because there is undisclosed infection in cattle and environmental contamination.     

Impact of the national full herd depopulation policy on the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis in Irish herds, 2003 to 2005

This study evaluated the impact of the Irish herd bovine tuberculosis (bTB) depopulation policy (depopulation, disinfection, contiguous testing and local badger removal where implicated) on the recurrence of bTB infection, by comparing the future risk in restocked herds following depopulation for either bTB or bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during 2003 to 2005. Each herd was assigned a 'previous bTB risk', based on bTB history during the five years before depopulation. Future bTB risk was estimated, using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for time-to-breakdown for each study herd, to identify risk factors associated with bTB. Future bTB risk varied significantly by reason for depopulation and previous bTB risk. Herds depopulated for bTB (by definition, at high bTB risk) were not significantly different from BSE herds with no or a low previous bTB risk. BSE herds with a high previous bTB risk were found to be at significantly greater future bTB risk. Herd bTB depopulation measures, as currently applied in Ireland, are shown to be effective in enabling herds to attain and retain bTB freedom following restocking. Based on the data presented, and consistent with current knowledge of the bTB epidemiology, local badger removal contributes to efforts to limit recurrence of bTB in Ireland.     

Husbandry practices, badger sett density and habitat composition as risk factors for transient and persistent bovine tuberculosis on UK cattle farms

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a persistent problem in cattle herds in Great Britain and Ireland. Farm management and cattle husbandry practices can influence the risk of transmission of bTB and hence the likelihood of bTB breakdown (>or=1 reactor to the tuberculin skin test). Biological differences are expected in the transmission dynamics, and hence risk factors for bTB breakdown, on farms where infection persists in the herd compared to farms where infection is more sporadic or short-lived. Comparative case-control studies were performed to test farm management practices as potential risk factors for transient (under breakdown restrictions for 6 months) bTB breakdown over 5 years (1995-1999) on 179 and 171 UK cattle farms, respectively. Farms were characterised for badger sett density and farm habitat composition by ground survey, farmers were questioned retrospectively on management practices, and cases and controls were identified from national tuberculin test records. Controlling for routine tuberculin testing interval, log-transformed herd size, regional location, badger sett density and farm habitat complexity, multivariable logistic regression identified increased odds of both transient and persistent breakdown on farms that bought-in cows (odds ratio (OR)>or=4.9; 95% confidence interval (CI)>or=1.1;22.8). In addition, the purchase of >50 head of cattle (OR=4.0, 95% CI=1.0;16.0) and the storage of manure for >or/=6 months (OR=4.4; 95% CI=1.3;15.4) were risk factors for transient breakdown, whereas the use of silage clamps (OR=9.1; 95% CI=2.0;40.8) increased the risk of persistent breakdown. Decreased odds of both transient and persistent breakdown were associated with higher stocking densities (>3cattle/ha) (OR相似文献   

Advances and prospects for management of TB transmission between badgers and cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is the most serious endemic disease facing the livestock industry in the United Kingdom (UK) and Republic of Ireland (RoI), where its management has been confounded by the presence of persistent infection in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles). Field evidence suggests that the social structure of badger populations can have an important influence on disease dynamics, and on the outcome of management interventions. Recent, large-scale badger culling experiments in the UK and RoI had complex epidemiological outcomes. In the UK, proactive culling led to reduced bTB incidence in cattle herds inside culled areas, but a temporary increase in adjacent areas. Reactive culling in response to herd breakdowns was associated with an increase in the incidence of bTB in cattle. In contrast, badger culling in RoI was reported to have only beneficial effects on bTB incidence in cattle. The reasons for these differences are not clear. The complexity of the evidence base for culling is highlighted by the different management approaches currently being adopted by the different authorities of the UK and RoI. It is generally accepted that a holistic approach to bTB management, which targets both cattle and wildlife, is necessary. Consequently recent research activities have also focussed on cattle and badger vaccines, and biosecurity on farms. This paper describes recent advances in our understanding of the epidemiology of bTB in badgers and the consequences of culling, and current research to develop approaches for the vaccination of badgers, and methods of managing the risks of contact between badgers and cattle in farm buildings.     

Not all cows are epidemiologically equal: quantifying the risks of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) transmission through cattle movements

Many economically important cattle diseases spread between herds through livestock movements. Traditionally, most transmission models have assumed that all purchased cattle carry the same risk of generating outbreaks in the destination herd. Using data on bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scotland as a case example, this study provides empirical and theoretical evidence that the risk of disease transmission varies substantially based on the animal and herd demographic characteristics at the time of purchase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that purchasing pregnant heifers and open cows sold with a calf at foot were associated with an increased risk of beef herds being seropositive for BVDV. Based on the results from a dynamic within-herd simulation model, these findings may be partly explained by the age-related probability of animals being persistently infected with BVDV as well as the herd demographic structure at the time of animal introductions. There was also evidence that an epidemiologically important network statistic, “betweenness centrality” (a measure frequently associated with the potential for herds to acquire and transmit disease), was significantly higher for herds that supplied these particular types of replacement beef cattle. The trends for dairy herds were not as clear, although there was some evidence that open heifers and open lactating cows were associated with an increased risk of BVDV. Overall, these findings have important implications for developing simulation models that more accurately reflect the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases.     

Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds

A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strategies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDV introduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports, and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pastures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecurity strategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-defined import profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased the financial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased the risk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specific to the risks of a particular herd.     

Differences in prevalence of tuberculosis in indigenous and crossbred cattle under extensive and intensive management systems in Tanga Region of Tanzania

A cross-sectional study was conducted between May 2003 and January 2004 on 130 households and 655 (246 indigenous and 409 crossbred) cattle to determine the prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and assess risk factors associated with prevalence in smallholder dairy and traditionally managed herds in the Tanga region of North-eastern Tanzania. Random sampling, single intradermal tuberculin (SIT), comparative intradermal tuberculin (SCIT) tests and a questionnaire were used to gather individual animal and herd level information. From 642 animal tested by SIT, 35 (5.4%) were positive reactors for tuberculosis. Out of those 35 bTB positive reactors, eight (1.25%) proved to be positive reactors for tuberculosis upon further testing by SCIT. Based on the SCIT test, individual animal prevalences of bTB in the smallholder dairy and traditionally managed cattle was 2% and 0%, respectively. The corresponding overall herd prevalence was 5.7% and 0%, respectively. In conclusion, bTB prevalence seems low; however, its potential risk to public health is of concern; underscoring the need for further research, active surveillance to better understand the epidemiology of the disease in different cattle production systems in Tanzania.     

Bovine tuberculosis in Europe from the perspective of an officially tuberculosis free country: trade, surveillance and diagnostics

Switzerland has been officially free of bovine tuberculosis (OTF) since 1960. Since 1980 the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has been reduced to passive abattoir surveillance. Isolated cases of bTB, partly due to reactivation of human Mycobacterium bovis infections with subsequent transmission to cattle, have been noticed in the last years. In Europe, the overall prevalence of bTB is slightly increasing. Both OTF and non-OTF countries report increases in the proportion of bTB positive cattle herds. Current bTB eradication and control programs in Europe are facing a range of challenges. Whole herd depopulation is becoming a less attractive option for economic reasons and due to animal welfare concerns. Live animal trade is increasing both at national and international levels. Regarding these tendencies and taking into account the chronicity of bTB infection, pre-movement testing is becoming increasingly important as a central tool for eradication and for protection against re-introduction of bTB. Pre-movement testing, however specifically focuses on the infection status in individuals, requiring a high level of diagnostic accuracy to correctly diagnose infected animals. Current screening tests for bTB, however, have been designed to meet demands as herd tests. This illustrates that the modification of existing and/or the development of new diagnostics for bTB might be needed. The tuberculin skin test (TST), the primary screening test for bTB may in certain situations have low sensitivity. The interferon gamma (IFN-γ) assay is accepted to be more sensitive compared to TST. Reduced specificity, however, especially in areas of low bTB prevalence raises concerns. New antigen combinations including Rv3615c, OmpATb and others have been shown to complement ESAT-6 and CFP-10 in the whole blood IFN-γ assay and resulted in improved sensitivity (compared to ESAT-6 and CFP-10) and specificity (compared to tuberculins). Lesion detection after slaughter represents a cost-effective procedure for passive surveillance of bTB, especially in areas of low prevalence or in regions free of bTB; however, its sensitivity is very low. This illustrates that trade is linked with a certain risk to re-introduce bTB in OTF regions or countries and that there may be delays in detecting a re-introduction of bTB. In conclusion, regarding the fact that some parameters linked with bTB programs are changing, the development of improved diagnostic tests with a high reliability for use as individual animal tests will be important for future eradication of bTB, in line with international commitment to high standard animal health programs.     

Bovine tuberculosis surveillance alternatives in Belgium

Belgium obtained the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) officially free status in 2003 (EC Decision 2003/467/EC). This study was carried out to evaluate the components of the current bTB surveillance program in Belgium and to determine the sensitivity of this program. Secondly, alternatives to optimize the bTB surveillance in accordance with European legislation (Council Directive 64/432/EEC) were evaluated. Separate scenario trees were designed for each active surveillance component of the bTB surveillance program. Data from 2005 to 2009 regarding cattle population, movement and surveillance were collected to feed the stochastic scenario tree simulation model. A total of 7,403,826 cattle movement history records were obtained for the 2,678,020 cattle from 36,059 cattle herds still active in 2009. The current surveillance program sensitivity as well as the impact of alternative surveillance protocols was simulated in a stochastic model using 10,000 iterations per simulation. The median (50% percentile) of the component sensitivities across 10,000 iterations was 0.83, 0.85, 0.99, 0.99, respectively, for (i) testing the cattle only during the winter screening, (ii) testing only imported cattle, (iii) testing only purchased cattle and (iv) testing only all slaughtered cattle. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input parameter explaining the variability around the output came from the uncertainty distribution around the sensitivity of the diagnostic tests used within the bTB surveillance. Providing all animals are inspected and post mortem inspection is highly sensitive, slaughterhouse surveillance was the most effective surveillance component. If these conditions were not met, the uncertainty around the mean sensitivity of this component was important. Using an antibody ELISA at purchase and an interferon gamma test during winter screening and at import would increase greatly the sensitivity and the confidence level of Belgium's freedom from bTB infection status.     

Geographical association between the genotype of bovine tuberculosis in found dead badgers and in cattle herds

In a survey, 457 badgers that had been found dead in Wales were postmortem-examined, and samples were examined by histology and by extended culture (for up to 12 weeks). Mycobacterium bovis was cultured from 55 badgers (12.0 per cent), and the histology typical of M bovis infection was seen in a further six (1.3 per cent). The prevalence in badgers in each of 10 geographical areas varied between 0 and 26 per cent (P<0.001), and was associated with the incidence of confirmed M bovis infection in cattle herds in the same areas (P<0.01). In northern Wales, bTB was rare in both hosts. An infected badger was 12.3 times more likely to be within 5 km of a confirmed cattle bTB breakdown than an uninfected badger. The M bovis isolates from badgers belonged to one of four genotypes defined by spoligotype and variable number tandem repeat type. These genotypes were also found in 290 concurrent confirmed herd breakdowns, and tended to be similar to the genotypes in badgers in the same geographical areas. When badgers and cattle no more than 30 km apart were compared, the genotype diversity was greater in cattle than in badgers (P=0.016), suggesting that the movement of cattle plays a greater part in the spatial distribution of M bovis than the movement of badgers.     

Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important notifiable disease in cattle in Great Britain (GB), and is subject to statutory control measures. Despite this, disease incidence has increased since the mid-1980s, and around 30% of herd breakdowns continue for more than 240 days. This is twice the shortest possible time for confirmed breakdowns to test clear from infection (≈120 days), and four times the shortest possible time for unconfirmed breakdowns (≈60 days). These "prolonged" breakdowns consume substantial resources and may act as an ongoing source of infection. It is not clear why some breakdowns become prolonged. Existing detailed case-control data have been re-analysed to determine risk factors for breakdowns lasting longer than 240 days, the strongest of which was the confirmation status of the breakdown: OR 12.6 (95%CI: 6.7-25.4). A further model restricted to data available early on in a breakdown for all breakdowns nationally, can predict 82-84% of prolonged breakdowns with a positive predictive value of 44-49% when validated using existing national datasets over a 4-year period. Identification of prolonged breakdowns at an earlier stage could help to target bTB controls in GB.     

Management of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan wildlife: current status and near term prospects

Surveillance and control activities for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in free-ranging Michigan white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have now been underway for over a decade. Significant progress has been made, lowering apparent prevalence in deer in the core area by >60%, primarily via reduction of deer densities through hunting, and restrictions on public feeding and baiting of deer. These broad strategies of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), implemented with the cooperation of Michigan deer hunters, halved the deer population in the bTB endemic area. However, as hunters see fewer deer, their willingness to sustain aggressive harvests has waned, and public resentment of control measures has grown. During the past four years, apparent prevalence in core area deer has held approximately steady just below 2%. After bottoming out in 2004 at an estimated 10-12 deer/km(2), deer numbers have since rebounded by ～ 30%. Public compliance with baiting and feeding restrictions has been variable. In general, hunters in the core area do not perceive bTB as a problem, in spite of 13 years of MDNR outreach. To date, MDNR has expended more than US$23 million on TB-related activities. Of late, a substantial portion of that funding has been diverted to support other programs which have suffered from budget shortfalls. Livestock herd breakdowns continue to occur sporadically, averaging 3-4 per year 2005 to present. In total, 46 cattle and 4 captive deer herds have been diagnosed bTB positive statewide, the majority yielding only 1 positive animal. Five cattle herds were twice infected, one thrice. Michigan Department of Agriculture (MDA) policy emphasis has shifted towards obtaining producer support for wildlife risk mitigation and farm biosecurity. Funding has proven a limiting factor, with the majority of the US$63 million spent to date devoted to whole herd testing. Nevertheless, some initiatives justify cautious optimism. Promising research to support eventual vaccination of wild deer continues. Some hunters and landowners have begun to recognize the costs of high deer densities and supplemental feeding. A peninsula-wide ban on baiting and feeding was enacted. Some cattle producers, recognizing their precarious circumstances, have begun work to change long-held prevailing opinions among their peers about farm biosecurity. Yet formidable challenges remain, and evidence suggests that eradication of bTB, if it can be achieved, will take decades, and will require greater public and political resolve than has been demonstrated thus far.     

Herd and individual animal risks associated with bovine tuberculosis skin test positivity in cattle in herds in south west England

The aim of this study was to investigate the cattle—exposure factors associated with the risk of a bovine animal reacting to a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) skin test at a whole herd test. There were 148 study farms enrolled. These were located in six counties of the south west of England in an area considered endemic for bovine tuberculosis (bTB): 24% were restocked after foot and mouth disease (FMD) in 2001; all farms were located within the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) area. Data on cattle on these farms were sourced from the bTB Vetnet database from 1996 to 2004 and from the British Cattle Movement Scheme database. Individual animal records were created that included data on whether or not an animal became a reactor at a full-herd bTB test between 1 June 2001 and 19 August 2004, their prior exposure to cattle with bTB (defined by presence at a bTB test where at least one reactor was detected), whether the animal was homebred, the farm history of bTB and the farm restocking status. Data from 144 farms were used, 4 farms had no data.Cattle were more likely to react to the bTB skin test when they had been present at a previous bTB herd test (or tests) where other cattle had reacted to the skin test. This positively correlated with age and the number of bTB tests an animal had had. Cattle on restocked farms were less likely to react to the skin test compared with cattle on continuously stocked farms. These results highlight the likely importance of exposure to infected cattle at a previous test as a source of infection to cattle that subsequently became reactors and suggest that there was a lower risk of exposure to bTB to cattle in newly formed herds.     

Shorter-term risk of Mycobacterium bovis in Irish cattle following an inconclusive diagnosis to the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test

In Ireland, new cases of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) are detected using both field and abattoir surveillance (More and Good, 2006). Field surveillance is conducted through annual testing of all cattle using the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT). An animal may be deemed a 'standard inconclusive reactor' (SIR) to the SICTT if the bovine response is >2mm and between 1 and 4mm>the avian response. The herdowner then has three choices for the management of the SIR: option 1 is to have the animal retested after a minimum period of 42 days (an inconclusive reactor retest, IRR), option 2 is to slaughter the SIR and, provided the animal has no visible lesions, have a full herd test 42 days after the SIR leaves the herd, option 3 is to slaughter the SIR and have the lymph nodes examined using histology and/or culture for bTB. In the current study, we examine the bTB risk for SIRs both at slaughter prior to the IRR and at the IRR, and the future bTB risk of TIR animals (so-called 'transient SIRs'; SIR animals with a negative SICTT result at the subsequent IRR) that moved from the herd of disclosure within 6 months of the IRR. We also investigate factors associated with the future bTB status of SIRs at slaughter prior to the IRR and at the IRR. The study population included all SIRs identified in Ireland between 2005 and 2009 inclusive in a herd otherwise Officially TB free (OTF). Between 11.8% and 21.4% of SIRs slaughtered prior to the IRR were confirmed bTB positive at post mortem (using histology or culture if histology was not definitive), compared to 0.13-0.22% of SICTT -ve cohort animals. The post mortem bTB lesion rate of SIRs is lower than the lesion rate reported for reactor animals between 2005 and 2009 of between 34% and 39%, reflecting the doubtful infection status of these animals. Between 20.3% and 27.9% of herds were restricted at the IRR. The herd restriction rate amongst the national herd between 2005 and 2009 varied from 5.09% to 6.02%. TIRs that moved out of the disclosing herd within 6 months of the IRR were 12 times more likely to be bTB positive at the next test/slaughter compared to all animals in the national herd. The same increased risk did not apply to the SICTT -ve cohort animals that moved out of the same herds at the same time. Based on a range of measures, SIRs and TIRs are each at increased bTB risk into the future. Consequently, differential treatment of TIR animals would be justified.     

Elimination of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in New Zealand: a review of research progress and future directions

The major impacts of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) on cattle health and production have prompted many countries to embark on national elimination programmes. These programmes typically involve identifying and removing persistently infected (PI) cattle in infected herds and implementing biosecurity measures, such as pre- or post-movement testing. In order to design a systematic national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand, which achieves the greatest benefits to the industries at the lowest cost to individual farmers, an accurate understanding is necessary of the epidemiology, economics and social motivation for BVD control in New Zealand. In this article we briefly review the pathogenesis of BVD, transmission and diagnosis of BVD virus infection, and effectiveness of vaccination. We summarise the current state of knowledge of the prevalence, risk factors for transmission, and financial impacts of BVD in New Zealand. We describe control programmes in Europe and then discuss the challenges that must be addressed to design a cost-effective national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand.     

Potential infection-control benefit for Ireland from pre-movement testing of cattle for tuberculosis

Pre-movement testing for bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was compulsory in Ireland until 1996. We determined the proportion of herd restrictions (losing BTB-free status) attributable to the recent introduction of an infected bovid; described events between restoration of BTB-free status (de-restriction) and the next herd-level test for BTB; estimated the proportion of undetected infected cattle present at de-restriction; identified high-risk movements between herds (movements most likely to involve infected cattle); and determined the potential yield of infected cattle discovered (or herds that would not lose their BTB-free status) by pre-movement testing, relative to the numbers of cattle and herds tested. We used national data for all 6252 herds with a new BTB restriction in the 12 months from 1 April 2003 and 3947 herds declared BTB-free in the 12 months from 1 October 2001. We identified higher-risk animals from our logistic generalized estimating-equation models. We attributed 6-7% of current herd restrictions to the recent introduction of an infected animal. There were considerable changes to herd structure between de-restriction and the next full-herd test, and infection was detected in 10% of herds at the first assessment (full-herd test or abattoir surveillance) following de-restriction. Following movement from a de-restricted herd, the odds of an animal being positive at the next test increased with increasing time in the source herd prior to movement, increasing time between de-restriction and the next full-herd test and increasing severity of the source herd restriction. The odds decreased with increasing size of the source herd. We estimated that 15.9 destination-herd restrictions per year could be prevented for every 10,000 cattle tested pre-movement and that 3.3 destination-herd restrictions per year could be prevented for every 100 source herds tested pre-movement. The yield per pre-movement test can be increased by focusing on high-risk movements; however, this would result in a substantial decrease in the total number of potential restrictions identified.     

A stochastic model to assess the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus to beef cow-calf herds

A spreadsheet model using Monte Carlo simulation was designed to evaluate the introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) to cow-calf farms and the effect of different testing strategies. Risks were modeled to include imports to the cow-calf herd and stocker calves imported to adjacent pastures. The number of persistently infected (PI) animals imported and the probability of BVDV introduction were monitored for three herd sizes, four import profiles, and six testing strategies. Importing stockers and importing pregnant heifers were the biggest risks for introduction of BVDV. Testing for PI animals in stockers decreased the risk they posed, but testing pregnant heifers was not sufficient to decrease risk unless their calves were also tested. Test sensitivity was more influential than PI prevalence on the likelihood of BVDV introduction, when all imports were tested. This model predicts the risk of BVDV introduction for individual herds based on management decisions, and should prove to be a useful tool to help cow-calf producers in controlling the risk of importing BVDV to a na?ve herd.