Early Warning of Risk for Transportation Infrastructure Projects under a PPP Model

Based on characteristics of transportation infrastructure projects under a PPP model, an early warning risk index system for the private sector was put forward. The system is comprised of 15 indexes from five aspects, including risks associated with politics and law, economics, credit, construction and operation. An early warning risk model was constructed by applying fuzzy set theory and matter element theory. The fuzzy set method helps calculate the weight and evaluation values for qualitative indexes, thereby avoiding the limitations of individual decisions. The matter element method can evaluate comprehensive risks by using the comprehensive relations, is easy to use, and directly gives results. Further empirical research was conducted that verifies this method is scientific and applicable.     

土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估初探

构建土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估机制,对规范土地整治重大项目建设和土地整治相关管理具有重要的现实意义。本文立足重大项目的全生命周期管理要求,综合分析了土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险的内涵,提出了相应的风险评估过程,并采用PSR模型建立了风险评估体系。研究认为：（1）重大项目的社会稳定风险在项目的立项论证、建设实施和管护运营等阶段均能以不同形式存在,风险评估应根据项目各管理阶段的重点任务及特征,系统分析土地整治过程中可能存在的各类风险因素;（2）风险评估过程应包含风险调查、风险识别、风险评价及风险化解四个程序;（3）基于PSR模型的风险评估体系可反映出土地整治社会稳定风险的产生、传导、作用和控制过程,可为重大项目风险评估指标的选取提供逻辑框架。     

Comprehensive dynamic fuzzy evaluation for construction safety of manual digging pile in limestone area

Based on the analysis of construction characteristics of manual digging pile in karst region, a scientific, timely and dynamic safety assessment system is the established and fuzzy AHP(analytic hierarchy process)is used to conduct a comprehensive safety assessment. The results are accordant with the actual situation and the construction practice has proved that fuzzy AHP is feasible to evaluate manual digging pile construction safety and good results can be achieved.     

An Improved Grey Relation Model of Safety Evaluations of Evacuation from High rise Building Fires

Based on a study of the time process of individual evacuees in high rise building fires, we found that the low security influencing factor will affect the possibility of successful evacuation severely. The traditional grey relational grade cannot reflect the effect of the grey relational coefficient fluctuation. Moreover, the single weight calculation with a subjective or objective weight will also directly affect the evaluation result of safe evacuation during high rise building fires. Based on these analyses, the grey Euclid relative grade was applied to indicate the effect of the grey relational coefficient fluctuation. The Spearman correlative rating coefficient was used to combine the subjective and objective weights to eliminate the deficiency of the single weight case. We discuss the possibility of applying the improved grey relational evaluation. Comparing the evaluation results, we found that the weight combination and grey Euclid relation applied in a safety evaluation model can improve evaluation result accuracy. The evaluation model thus corresponds to the characteristics of high rise building fires and the weight set substantially affects the evaluation result.     

江苏省冬小麦冻害风险评价指标的构建

为了科学评估江苏冬小麦冻害风险,为防灾减灾和粮食稳产高产提供依据,利用1960—2010年江苏省常规气象观测资料、农业气象观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,筛选出江苏冬小麦低温冻害的主要致灾因子,并确定了致灾指标。在此基础上根据风险分析原理,采用灰色关联分析方法,构建了综合气候产量减产率和低温冻害指标的冬小麦低温冻害风险定量评估指数模型。结果表明,将江苏省划分为高风险区、中风险区和低风险区：高风险区为淮河——苏北灌溉总渠以北的大部分地区及盐城东北部地区,风险值大于50%,可能造成的产量损失平均为3%~6%,低风险区为淮河——苏北灌溉总渠以南除盐城东北部以外的全省大部分地区,风险值低于35%,产量损失不大,中风险区主要为这两者的过渡地带,可能造成的产量损失为0~3%。评估结果较好地反映了历史和实际情况,可以作为江苏冬小麦冻害风险评估和防控的依据。     

Application of Simulation Method on the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

In order to provide a reliable foundation for project decision, some sorts of financial indexes of the project, such as NPV, IRR etc, should be accurately estimated out in the earlier stage. However, these indexes appear in the future randomly, and their estimation in the earlier stage is at risk. In this paper, taking the project's NPV as example and applying simulation method to its estimation, the authors developed a comparatively objective evaluation method of construction projects. Furthermore, the outcome of the simulation method is tested by comparing it with the result of another evaluation method.     

Application of Risk Analysis to the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

Every sort of financial indexes of the construction project is a value occurred in future. It has a random character, so the estimation of these indexes in early stage is surely a matter of risk. In practice, the investors often choose a construction project only by simple estimation rather by deep financial evaluation and risk analysis. In this paper, taking the project NPV as an example and applying risk analysis to its estimation, the authors develop a totally new economic evaluation method for construction projects.     

Analysis of project financing risk distribution Based on Investor

By analyzing the kinds of risk and participants in project financing in ject financing risk distribution through the game theory analysis is studied. The this paper, the optimal principle of proauthors use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to establish the participants risk matrix, then, solve the matrix through Hungarian Algorithm according to the principle of risk effective distribution. After optimization,the best one who should undertake the risk will be decided.     

Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

Advanced Grey Relational Analysis Method and Its Application in Water Quality Evaluation of the Lake-type Wetland

Grey relational analysis is one of the most important methods in water quality evaluation system. As the traditional grey relational analysis has the defects of homogenization in static resolution ratio, small discrimination in correlation degree, and low precision in the weight of impact factors, this paper proposed an advanced grey relational analysis that used dynamic resolution ratio and comprehensive evaluation indicators. This method has been applied in the MIS software which monitors and evaluates the water quality in the lakes of the Four-Lake Basin. Compared with the traditional grey relational analysis and the cluster-factor analysis, this method could effectively enhance the reliability and accuracy of the results.     

Advance of Management Performance Evaluation in Petrochemical Engineering Construction Project

Toward the characteristics of petrochemical engineering construction project and the need of project management performance evaluation, this paper analyzed the status of project management performance evaluation study and the status of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project. This paper suggested the direction of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project, which is to establish the performance evaluation index system of petrochemical engineering construction project management and performance evaluation method, to establish process performance evaluation system of petrochemical engineering construction project management, to develop performance evaluation software of petrochemical engineering construction project management.     

Research on the System and Models of Society-Economy-Environment Appraisal for Construction Project

The society-economy-environment appraisal for construction project can help our government to control macro-economy, make correlation policy and formulate laws and draw up city plan.It has great influence on the sustainable development of our society and it is the demand of the law for the environment evaluation in China.This paper introduced the basic structure of society-economy-environment appraisal system for construction project and the thought of elements transaction.Using the method of AHP, the model of project analyzing and optimizing selection is designed.For the more, the methods of the optimizing models on the selected schemes are put forward.Finally, the integrative analysis has been made on the system design and appliance of this appraisal system.     

Post_evaluation of Urban Road ConstructionProject Financed by the World Bank

With reference to the characteristics of urban road under the World Bank's loan construction project,this paper proposes the contents of post_evaluation of urban road project and gives its process evaluation,national economy evaluation,influence evaluation and sustainability evaluation.Based on the theoretical principles,a project post_evaluation of inner_ring road in T city was conducted.     

军用冻干蔬果的模糊数学感官评价研究

采用模糊数学评价方法,以色泽、形状、气味、口感、滋味为评价因素,对9种军用冻干蔬果的感官品质进行了模糊数学判定。结果表明,9种军用冻干蔬果感官品质的模糊综合感官评价得分从高到低依次为苹果块、大头菜块、菠萝南瓜块、草莓胡萝卜块、菠菜块、西兰花块、黄桃块、菠萝胡萝卜块、树莓块。模糊数学评价方法能较客观准确地反映产品的感官品质,为军用食品感官品质的综合评价提供一种参考方法。     

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Landslides Risk Assessment Induced by Extreme Rainfall

The hazard assessment of the highway landslide induced by the extreme rainfall is a complicated systemetic issue.By combining the modified analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,all the factors that influence the highway landslide are analyzed.And the comprehensive evaluation index system as well as the danger rating is established.In the process of evaluation,different rainfall's dynamic weighting system is fixed,and then the membership of continuous and discrete index are calculated respectively by using the trapezoid membership function formula and expertise assignment,and finally case study is carried out.It is shown that this method is suitable and rational to evaluate the highway landslide induced by extreme rainfall.     

Analysis of Optimal Model of Risk-sharing About Project Financing

Project financing is an innovative financing method, which also is an important financing instrument of infrastructure projects. It is a key of how to give risk-sharing of participants. Based on limited recourse character of project financing, this paper puts forword participant criterion of risk-sharing by risk premium about various risks, and attains optimal risk-sharing of linear and nonlinear cases by designing optimal models.     

BP Algorithm Evaluation Model of Political Risk in International Construction Projects

Political risk is one of the common risks in international construction projects, the political risk is analyzed in this paper and an evaluation model of political risk in international construction projects is presented based on BP algorithm, The model is a self- study and self- adaptive one in risk evaluation. Through the simulation study with practice data, with this model the cost improvement of international construction projects can be predicted in political risks exactly, it is useful in evaluating the comprehensive political risk.     

南方丘陵山区土地整理项目后评价研究

为客观反映土地整理的实际效益,实现土地整理项目监督和考核,须将项目后评价提上日程。立足于南方丘陵山区土地整理,拟从生产条件、社会经济、生态环境、资源影响4方面构建项目后评价指标体系,并以四川省井研县分全乡土地整理示范项目为例,应用模糊综合评价方法进行实证研究。研究表明：项目实施取得了比较满意的综合外部效益,但项目重生产条件指标、经济指标和新增耕地指标,轻生态环境,导致项目区景观与生态环境改良效果不显著,应加强景观与生态建设。     

两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型的比较

为比较DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价的效果,利用河南省杞县和汤阴县1999-2013年的气象资料、冬小麦发育期及产量数据,采用DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法构建两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型,并计算不同生育期和全生育期的冬小麦气候适宜度。利用相关分析方法,检验两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的评价效果。结果表明：杞县和汤阴县的出苗至越冬期、返青至拔节期、拔节至开花期、开花至成熟期,模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与模糊数学法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势基本一致,且呈正相关,而两个地点的越冬至返青期,两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈负相关。两个地点两种方法估算的全生育期冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势与实测产量的变化趋势基本一致,且两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈正相关。模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数均高于模糊数学估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数。但与模糊数学法相比,DSSAT模型估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与实测产量变化更接近。DSSAT模型可用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价研究。