Landscapes Toolkit: an integrated modelling framework to assist stakeholders in exploring options for sustainable landscape development

At present, stakeholders wishing to develop land use and management change scenarios at the landscape scale and to assess their corresponding impacts on water quality, biodiversity and economic performance, must examine the output of a suite of separate models. The process is not simple and presents a considerable deterrent to making such comparisons and impedes the development of more sustainable, multifunctional landscapes. To remedy this problem, we developed the Landscapes Toolkit, an integrated modelling framework that assists natural resource managers, policy-makers, planners and local communities explore options for sustainable landscape development. The Landscapes Toolkit links spatially-explicit disciplinary models, to enable integrated assessment of the water quality, biodiversity and economic outcomes of stakeholder-defined land use and management change scenarios. We use the Tully–Murray catchment in the Great Barrier Reef region of Australia as a case study to illustrate the development and application of the Landscapes Toolkit. Results show that the Landscapes Toolkit strikes a satisfactory balance between the inclusion of component models that sufficiently capture the richness of some key aspects of social-ecological system processes and the need for stakeholders to understand and compare the results of the different models. The latter is a prerequisite to making more informed decisions about sustainable landscape development. The flexibility of being able to add additional models and to update existing models is a particular strength of the Landscapes Toolkit design. Hence, the Landscapes Toolkit offers a promising modelling framework for supporting social learning and adaptive management through participatory scenario development and evaluation as well as being a tool to guide planning and policy discussions at the landscape scale.     

Landscape ecology as a foundation for sustainable conservation

Landscape ecology and conservation share a common focus on places, but they differ in their perspectives about what is important about those places, and the integration of landscape ecology into conservation is far from complete. I consider four ways in which landscape ecology can contribute to conservation. First, protected areas that are established for conservation are not stand-alone isolates. They exist in the context of broader landscape mosaics, which may encourage or discourage movements of individuals into and out of an area. Second, the landscape surroundings of a preserve may contain threats to the biodiversity within the preserve, many of them consequences of human activities. In combination, these relationships with the surroundings may make the “effective area” of a preserve different from that shown on a map. Third, the scale of an administrative area or of management action may not coincide with the scales of populations, disturbances, or ecological processes, creating challenges to both landscape ecology and conservation. Finally, landscapes encompass people and their activities; sustainability of conservation requires consideration of the tradeoffs between human uses and the biodiversity values of a landscape. I illustrate these four themes with a case study of the management of prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in the Great Plains of North America, where the tensions between conservation and human land uses are particularly high. Ecologists and conservationists consider prairie dogs as keystone species in these grassland ecosystems and primary targets for conservation, but many private landowners regard them as varmints that consume valuable livestock forage and degrade rangeland condition. Effective conservation of functioning grasslands must include prairie dogs, and this in turn requires that the issues be addressed in terms of the biological, social, and cultural features of entire landscapes. Important as they are, areas protected for conservation cannot by themselves stem the tide of global biodiversity loss. The perspective must be broadened to include the landscapes where people live and work, recognizing the dynamic nature of landscapes and the factors driving land-use change. Landscape ecologists must work together to overcome the cultural differences between their disciplines, and between academic science and conservation practice and management. It can, and must, be done.     

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer’s land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH–Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes.     

Holocene palaeo-invasions: the link between pattern, process and scale in invasion ecology?

Invasion ecology has made rapid progress in recent years through synergies with landscape ecology, niche theory, evolutionary ecology and the ecology of climate change. The palaeo-record of Holocene invasions provides a rich but presently underexploited resource in exploring the pattern and process of invasions through time. In this paper, examples from the palaeo-literature are used to illustrate the spread of species through time and space, also revealing how interactions between invader and invaded communities change over the course of an invasion. The main issues addressed are adaptation and plant migration, ecological and evolutionary interactions through time, disturbance history and the landscape ecology of invasive spread. We consider invasions as a continuous variable, which may be influenced by different environmental or ecological variables at different stages of the invasion process, and we use palaeoecological examples to describe how ecological interactions change over the course of an invasion. Finally, the use of palaeoecological information to inform the management of invasions for biodiversity conservation is discussed.     

Green Veining: Landscape Determinants of Biodiversity in European Agricultural Landscapes

Many semi-natural landscape elements, the so-called green veining, are disappearing from the intensively used agricultural landscapes of Europe. In order to develop or restore biodiversity in these networks, it is necessary to quantify the relation between biodiversity and amount, spatial arrangement and management intensity of green veining elements. In this review, we investigate whether biodiversity increases with the amount of green veining in an agricultural landscape following the species–area relationship, and whether a certain level of biodiversity can be reached at lower densities of green veining if green veining elements are better connected (higher spatial connectivity) or if they are managed less intensively (lower management intensity). We reviewed studies on aboveground biodiversity in green veining structures in 39 scientific papers on field and experimental studies within Europe. More of these studies focussed on management intensity than on amount or spatial configuration of green veining. Also more studies focussed on the spatial scale of individual landscape elements than on the farm or landscape scale, which may be caused by the large number of studies focussing on plant or invertebrate species. Species living at larger spatial scales, e.g. mammals and birds were not often studied at the level of green veining elements as they also use agricultural fields as part of their habitat. We could not verify the species–area relation for green veining, nor the effect of amount, spatial configuration or management intensity on this relation, because only few studies quantified the found effects and no studies were found on the effect of management intensity or spatial configuration on the species–area curve in green veining. We addressed the most important challenges for future field and model research in order to fill the identified gaps in knowledge.     

Targeting and evaluating biodiversity conservation action within fragmented landscapes: an approach based on generic focal species and least-cost networks

The focus of biodiversity conservation is shifting to larger spatial scales in response to habitat fragmentation and the need to integrate multiple landscape objectives. Conservation strategies increasingly incorporate measures to combat fragmentation such as ecological networks. These are often based on assessment of landscape structure but such approaches fail to capitalise on the potential offered by more ecologically robust assessments of landscape function and connectivity. In this paper, we describe a modelling approach to identifying functional habitat networks and demonstrate its application to a fragmented landscape where policy initiatives seek to improve conditions for woodland biodiversity including increasing woodland cover. Functional habitat networks were defined by identifying suitable habitat and by modelling connectivity using least-cost approaches to account for matrix permeability. Generic focal species (GFS) profiles were developed, in consultation with stakeholders, to represent species with high and moderate sensitivity to fragmentation. We demonstrated how this form of analysis can be used to aid the spatial targeting of conservation actions. This ‘targeted’ action scenario was tested for effectiveness against comparable scenarios, which were based on random and clumped actions within the same landscape. We tested effectiveness using structural metrics, network-based metrics and a published functional connectivity indicator. Targeting actions within networks resulted in the highest mean woodland area and highest connectivity indicator value. Our approach provides an assessment of landscape function by recognising the importance of the landscape matrix. It provides a framework for the targeting and evaluation of alternative conservation options, offering a pragmatic, ecologically-robust solution to a current need in applied landscape ecology.     

Can a problem-solving approach strengthen landscape ecology’s contribution to sustainable landscape planning?

The need to avert unacceptable and irreversible environmental change is the most urgent challenge facing society. Landscape ecology has the capacity to help address these challenges by providing spatially-explicit solutions to landscape sustainability problems. However, despite a large body of research, the real impact of landscape ecology on sustainable landscape management and planning is still limited. In this paper, we first outline a typology of landscape sustainability problems which serves to guide landscape ecologists in the problem-solving process. We then outline a formal problem-solving approach, whereby landscape ecologists can better bring about disciplinary integration, a consideration of multiple landscape functions over long time scales, and a focus on decision making. This framework explicitly considers multiple ecological objectives and socio-economic constraints, the spatial allocation of scarce resources to address these objectives, and the timing of the implementation of management actions. It aims to make explicit the problem-solving objectives, management options and the system understanding required to make sustainable landscape planning decisions. We propose that by adopting a more problem-solving approach, landscape ecologists can make a significant contribution towards realising sustainable future landscapes.     

Predicting land use change: comparison of models based on landowner surveys and historical land cover trends

To make informed planning decisions, community leaders, elected officials, scientists, and natural resource managers must be able to evaluate potential effects of policies on land use change. Many land use change models use remotely-sensed images to make predictions based on historical trends. One alternative is a survey-based approach in which landowners’ stated intentions are modeled. The objectives of our research were to: (1) develop a survey-based landowner decision model (SBM) to simulate future land use changes, (2) compare projections from the SBM with those from a trend-based model (TBM), and (3) demonstrate how two alternative policy scenarios can be incorporated into the SBM and compared. We modeled relationships between land management decisions, collected from a mail survey of private landowners, and the landscape, using remotely-sensed imagery and ownership parcel data. We found that SBM projections were within the range of TBM projections and that the SBM was less affected by errors in image classification. Our analysis of alternative policies demonstrates the importance of understanding potential effects of targeted land use policies. While policies oriented toward increasing enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) resulted in a large (11–13%) increase in CRP lands, policies targeting increased forest thinning on private non-industrial lands increased low-density forest projections by only 1%. The SBM approach is particularly appropriate for landscapes including many landowners, because it reflects the decision-making of the landowners whose individual actions will result in collective landscape change.     

Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters

Understory fire modeling is a key tool to investigate the cornerstone concept of landscape ecology, i.e. how ecological processes relate to landscape structure and dynamics. Within this context, we developed FISC??a model that simulates fire ignition and spread and its effects on the forest carbon balance. FISC is dynamically coupled to a land-use change model to simulate fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu Headwaters under deforestation, climate change, and land-use management scenarios. FISC incorporates a stochastic cellular automata approach to simulate fire spread across agricultural and forested lands. CARLUC, nested in FISC, simulates fuel dynamics, forest regrowth, and carbon emissions. Simulations of fire regimes under modeled scenarios revealed that the major current and future driver of understory fires is forest fragmentation rather than climate change. Fire intensity proved closely related to the landscape structure of the remaining forest. While climate change may increase the percentage of forest burned outside protected areas by 30% over the next four decades, deforestation alone may double it. Nevertheless, a scenario of forest recovery and better land-use management would abate fire intensity by 18% even in the face of climate change. Over this time period, the total carbon balance of the Xingu??s forests varies from an average net sink of 1.6?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in the absence of climate change, fire and deforestation to a source of ?0.1?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in a scenario that incorporates these three processes.     

Understanding spontaneous biodiversity in informal urban green spaces: A local-landscape filtering framework with a test on wall plants

In densely urbanized areas, small pockets of vegetated areas such as street verges, vacant lots, and walls can be rich in biodiversity. In spite of their small size, these ‘informal urban greenspaces’ can provide critical ecosystem services to urban residents. Maintaining and enhancing the provisioning of ecosystem services requires a systematic understanding of biodiversity patterns and drivers in informal urban green spaces. The ‘environmental filtering’ (a process of certain species selected by specific environmental conditions) concept in community ecology theory may serve as a useful tool for this goal. We tested a multi-scale filtering framework by examining the spontaneous plant diversity patterns (from 83 surveyed sites) on the vertical surfaces of the ancient city wall of Nanjing, China. We found that the variables representing local-habitat filtering (e.g., wall substrates and aspect) and landscape filtering (including spatial configuration of urban land cover, and nighttime light intensity surrounding the local habitats) can jointly explain substantial fractions of variations in taxonomic diversity (up to ca. 60%) and functional diversity (up to ca. 40%). The explanatory power was stronger in the repaired wall habitats than in the unrepaired counterparts, in line with the prediction that environmental filtering is more pronounced during the early stages of community assembly. While the strength of landscape filtering showed clear scale-dependency, its relative importance consistently outweighs local-habitat filtering across all study scales of 200–1600 m, suggesting that configuration of neighboring landscape context can play an important role in shaping local-scale biodiversity of informal urban green spaces. Our results have useful implications for the study, design, and management of informal urban green spaces. Well-tailored multi-scale filtering frameworks may contribute to understanding urban biodiversity patterns in a systematic way.     

Optimizing landscape selection for estimating relative effects of landscape variables on ecological responses

Empirical studies of the relative effects of landscape variables may compromise inferential strength with common approaches to landscape selection. We propose a methodology for landscape sample selection that is designed to overcome some common statistical pitfalls that may hamper estimates of relative effects of landscape variables on ecological responses. We illustrate our proposed methodology through an application aimed at quantifying the relationships between farmland heterogeneity and biodiversity. For this project, we required 100 study landscapes that represented the widest possible ranges of compositional and configurational farmland heterogeneity, where these two aspects of heterogeneity were quantified as crop cover diversity (Shannon diversity index) and mean crop field size, respectively. These were calculated at multiple spatial extents from a detailed map of the region derived through satellite image segmentation and classification. Potential study landscapes were then selected in a structured approach such that: (1) they represented the widest possible range of both heterogeneity variables, (2) they were not spatially autocorrelated, and (3) there was independence (no correlation) between the two heterogeneity variables, allowing for more precise estimates of the regression coefficients that reflect their independent effects. All selection criteria were satisfied at multiple extents surrounding the study landscapes, to allow for multi-scale analysis. Our approach to landscape selection should improve the inferential strength of studies estimating the relative effects of landscape variables, particularly those with a view to developing land management guidelines.     

Twenty-five years into “our common future”: are we heading in the right direction?

For a quarter of a century, sustainable development has been on the political and research agendas. Within the field of landscape ecology, a wide array of research has documented the effects of alternative land uses, analysed driving forces of land use change and developed tools for measuring such changes, to mention but a few developments. There have also been great advances in technology and data management. Nevertheless, unsustainable land use continues to occur and the science of landscape ecology has had less influence on landscape change than aimed for. In this paper we use Norwegian examples to discuss some of the reasons for this. We examine mismatches in the spatial and temporal scales considered by scientists, decision-makers and those who carry out land use change, consider how this and other factors hinder effective communication between scientists and practitioners, and urge for a stronger focus on what it is that motivates people to action. We suggest that the concept of landscape services can be useful not only for researchers but also provide valuable communication and planning tools. Finally, we suggest more emphasis on applying adaptive management in landscape ecology to help close the gaps, both between researchers and policy and, even more crucially, between researchers and practitioners.     

Influence of biophysical factors and differences in Ojibwe reservation versus Euro-American social histories on forest landscape change in northern Wisconsin,USA

Landscape ecology studies have demonstrated that past modifications of the landscape frequently influence its structure, highlighting the utility of integrating historical perspectives from the fields of historical ecology and environmental history. Yet questions remain for historically-informed landscape ecology, especially the relative influence of social factors, compared to biophysical factors, on long-term land-cover change. Moreover, methods are needed to more effectively link history to ecology, specifically to illuminate the underlying political, economic, and cultural forces that influence heterogeneous human drivers of land-cover change. In northern Wisconsin, USA, we assess the magnitude of human historical forces, relative to biophysical factors, on land-cover change of a landscape dominated by eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) forest before Euro-American settlement. First, we characterize land-cover transitions of pine-dominant sites over three intervals (1860–1931; 1931–1951; 1951–1987). Transition analysis shows that white pine was replaced by secondary successional forest communities and agricultural land-covers. Second, we assess the relative influence of a socio-historical variable (“on-/off-Indian reservation”), soil texture (clay and sand), and elevation on land-cover transition. On the Lake Superior clay plain, models that combine socio-historical and biophysical variables best explain long-term land-cover change. The socio-historical variable dominates: the magnitude and rate of land-cover change differs among regions exposed to contrasting human histories. Third, we developed an integrative environmental history-landscape ecology approach, thereby facilitating linkage of observed land-cover transitions to broader political, economic, and cultural forces. These results are relevant to other landscape investigations that integrate history and ecology.     

Landscapes as continuous entities: forest disturbance and recovery in the Albertine Rift landscape

Kibale National Park, within the Albertine Rift, is known for its rich biodiversity. High human population density and agricultural conversion in the surrounding landscape have created enormous resource pressure on forest fragments outside the park. Kibale presents a complex protected forest landscape comprising intact forest inside the park, logged areas inside the park, a game corridor with degraded forest, and forest fragments in the landscape surrounding the park. To explore the effect of these different levels of forest management and protection over time, we assessed forest change over the previous three decades, using both discrete and continuous data analyses of satellite imagery. Park boundaries have remained fairly intact and forest cover has been maintained or increased inside the park, while there has been a high level of deforestation in the landscape surrounding the park. While absolute changes in land cover are important changes in vegetation productivity, within land cover classes are often more telling of longer term changes and future directions of change. The park has lower Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values than the forest fragments outside the park and the formerly logged area—probably due to forest regeneration and early succession stage. The corridor region has lower productivity, which is surprising given this is also a newer regrowth region and so should be similar to the logged and forest fragments. Overall, concern can be raised for the future trajectory of this park. Although forest cover has been maintained, forest health may be an issue, which for future management, climate change, biodiversity, and increased human pressure may signify troubling signs.     

Anticipating floodplain trajectories: a comparison of two alternative futures approaches

Scenario-based investigations explore alternative future courses of action in a widening array of situations. Anticipating landscape patterns and the values behind them are recurring needs in such investigations. While it is accepted that how scenario assumptions are framed and who frames them matters, the sensitivity of resulting trajectories to contrasting scenario framing and modeling processes is rarely tested. Using comparable scenarios we contrast landscape change trajectories produced from two distinct approaches to modeling scenario assumptions: the first uses lay citizen groups and deterministic land allocation modeling, the second uses experts from biophysical and social sciences and agent-based modeling. Scenarios are defined and mapped for the year 2050 in western Oregon’s Willamette River Basin along a gradient of conservation oriented to development-oriented assumptions using first citizen-based and then expert-based approaches. The landscape variability and trajectories for the citizen-based Conservation 2050 and Development 2050 scenarios are then characterized and compared with those of the expert-based Conservation 2050 and Development 2050 scenarios. Results distinguish areas where trajectories always vary regardless of approach or scenario from those that never vary. Policy influence on trajectory is illustrated using agent-based model results where land conversion serves purposes of wealth production and ecosystem function. Results depict areas with strong coupling between policy and trajectory as those places experiencing the same pattern of change over time regardless of scenario. Results also indicate that the greater the variability of a given scenario’s trajectories, the more successful the scenario is at avoiding scarcity of wealth and ecosystem function.     

Land cover change in the Bolivian Amazon and its implications for REDD+ and endemic biodiversity

Tropical deforestation is a major contributor to green house gas emissions in developing countries. Incentive mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), are currently being considered as a possible emissions reduction and offset solution. Although REDD has expanded its scope to include co-benefits such as sustainable management of forests and biodiversity conservation (known as REDD+), current carbon-base methodologies do not specifically target projects for the parallel protection of these co-benefits. This study demonstrates the incorporation of both carbon and biodiversity benefits within REDD+ in the Bolivian Amazon, through the analysis of land cover change and future change scenario modeling to the year 2050. Current protected areas within the Bolivian Amazon were evaluated for REDD+ project potential by identifying concordant patterns of carbon content, species biodiversity and deforestation vulnerability. Biodiversity-based versus carbon-based protection schemes were evaluated and protected areas were prioritized using irreplaceability-vulnerability plots. Deforestation projection scenarios to the year 2050 varied depending on the historical period analyzed, producing low, intermediate and high deforestation scenarios. All scenarios showed increasing deforestation pressure in the northern region of Bolivia along with high levels of biodiversity loss. Expected reductions in the carbon pool ranged from 8 to 48%, for the low and high demand scenarios respectively. Some protected areas presented large numbers of endemic species, high concentrations of carbon and high deforestation vulnerability, demonstrating the potential for win–win REDD+ projects in Bolivia.     

Multi-scale site and landscape effects on the vulnerable superb parrot of south-eastern Australia during the breeding season

The threatened superb parrot of south-eastern Australia exemplifies many of the challenges associated with research on wide-raging organisms which live ‘off-reserve’. Challenges include that most land is privately owned and that landscape use by such organisms does not always conform to traditional schematic and categorical landscape/fragmentation models. A multi-scale approach for embedding the detection of site-level and landscape context effects into landscape sampling design and subsequent statistical analysis is presented. The superb parrot was found scattered at varying densities throughout the agricultural landscapes of the South-West Slopes, much of which was privately owned. It responded to site-level variables and the surrounding landscape context. Overall, the superb parrot favoured lower elevation sites which were dominated by scattered, open woodlands, where Blakely’s red gum was a significant component. Mean plant productivity within 2 km, levels of woody tree cover within 3 km and (with caveats) length of roads within 3 km had a major effect on site-level response, indicating conditions in the surrounding local landscape are important to the superb parrot. This multi-scale response requires a multi-scale conservation and restoration strategy. The importance of open tree cover and amounts of Blakely’s red gum are a matter for concern, due to a general lack of tree regeneration and the particular susceptibility of Blakely’s red gum to dieback. The scattered trees in the agricultural matrix were important to the superb parrot, suggesting that it views these landscapes as a continuum of usable habitat. Strategies for restoration of larger habitat remnants should also include regeneration of trees in scattered pattern in the wider landscape, and Blakely’s red gum should be part of any strategy along with other key species such as yellow and white box. The landscape sampling approach successfully addressed the challenges of whole-landscape research. This highlights the value of ‘off-reserve’ studies across whole landscapes.     

Assessing alternative futures for agriculture in Iowa,U.S.A.

The contributions of current agricultural practices to environmental degradation and the social problems facing agricultural regions are well known. However, landscape-scale alternatives to current trends have not been fully explored nor their potential impacts quantified. To address this research need, our interdisciplinary team designed three alternative future scenarios for two watersheds in Iowa, USA, and used spatially-explicit models to evaluate the potential consequences of changes in farmland management. This paper summarizes and integrates the results of this interdisciplinary research project into an assessment of the designed alternatives intended to improve our understanding of landscape ecology in agricultural ecosystems and to inform agricultural policy. Scenario futures were digitized into a Geographic Information System (GIS), visualized with maps and simulated images, and evaluated for multiple endpoints to assess impacts of land use change on water quality, social and economic goals, and native flora and fauna. The Biodiversity scenario, targeting restoration of indigenous biodiversity, ranked higher than the current landscape for all endpoints (biodiversity, water quality, farmer preference, and profitability). The Biodiversity scenario ranked higher than the Production scenario (which focused on profitable agricultural production) in all endpoints but profitability, for which the two scenarios scored similarly, and also ranked higher than the Water Quality scenario in all endpoints except water quality. The Water Quality scenario, which targeted improvement in water quality, ranked highest of all landscapes in potential water quality and higher than the current landscape and the Production scenario in all but profitability. Our results indicate that innovative agricultural practices targeting environmental improvements may be acceptable to farmers and could substantially reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture in this region.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Key issues and research priorities in landscape ecology: An idiosyncratic synthesis

Landscape ecology has made tremendous progress in recent decades, but as a rapidly developing discipline it is faced with new problems and challenges. To identify the key issues and research priorities in landscape ecology, a special session entitled “Top 10 List for Landscape Ecology in the 21st Century” was organized at the 16th Annual Symposium of the US Regional Association of International Association of Landscape Ecology, held at Arizona State University (Tempe, Arizona, USA) during April 25–29, 2001. A group of leading landscape ecologists were invited to present their views. This paper is intended to be a synthesis, but not necessarily a consensus, of the special session. We have organized the diverse and wide-ranging perspectives into six general key issues and 10 priority research topics. The key issues are: (1) interdisciplinarity or transdisciplinarity, (2) integration between basic research and applications,(3) Conceptual and theoretical development, (4) education and training, (5)international scholarly communication and collaborations, and (6) outreach and communication with the public and decision makers. The top 10 research topics are: (1) ecological flows in landscape mosaics, (2) causes, processes, and consequences of land use and land cover change, (3) nonlinear dynamics and landscape complexity, (4) scaling, (5) methodological development, (6) relating landscape metrics to ecological processes, (7) integrating humans and their activities into landscape ecology, (8) optimization of landscape pattern, (9)landscape sustainability, and (10) data acquisition and accuracy assessment. We emphasize that, although this synthesis was based on the presentations at the“Top 10 List” session, it is not a document that has been agreed upon by each and every participant. Rather, we believe that it is reflective of the broad-scale vision of the collective as to where landscape ecology is now and where it may be going in future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cultural landscapes of the future: using agent-based modeling to discuss and develop the use and management of the cultural landscape of South West Devon

Context

Hedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement.

Objectives

We studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies?

Methods

We applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop.

Results

Outcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon.

Conclusion

Current AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies.