Large scale risk-assessment of wind-farms on population viability of a globally endangered long-lived raptor

Wind-farms receive public and governmental support as an alternative energy source mitigating air pollution. However, they can have adverse effects on wildlife, particularly through collision with turbines. Research on wind-farm effects has focused on estimating mortality rates, behavioural changes or interspecific differences in vulnerability. Studies dealing with their effects on endangered or rare species populations are notably scarce. We tested the hypothesis that wind-farms increase extinction probability of long-lived species through increments in mortality rates. For this purpose, we evaluate potential consequences of wind-farms on the population dynamics of a globally endangered long-lived raptor in an area where the species maintains its greatest stronghold and wind-farms are rapidly increasing. Nearly one-third of all breeding territories of our model species are in wind-farm risk zones. Our intensive survey shows that wind-farms decrease survival rates of this species differently depending on individual breeding status. Consistent with population monitoring, population projections showed that all subpopulations and the meta-population are decreasing. However, population sizes and, therefore, time to extinction significantly decreased when wind-farm mortality was included in models. Our results represent a qualitative warning exercise showing how very low reductions in survival of territorial and non-territorial birds associated with wind-farms can strongly impact population viability of long-lived species. This highlights the need for examining long-term impacts of wind-farms rather than focusing on short-term mortality, as is often promoted by power companies and some wildlife agencies. Unlike other non-natural causes of mortality difficult to eradicate or control, wind-farm fatalities can be lowered by powering down or removing risky turbines and/or farms, and by placing them outside areas critical for endangered birds.     

Potential factors controlling the population viability of newly introduced endangered marble trout populations

While several population viability analyses (PVAs) have been performed on anadromous salmonids, less attention has been given to stream-living salmonids. In this work, we explore the role of PVA as a tool in the recovery of threatened stream-living salmonid species. The analysis has been performed with reference to marble trout Salmo marmoratus, a salmonid with a limited geographic distribution and at risk of extinction due to hybridization with the non-native introduced brown trout. Demographic parameters, such as survival, fecundity and density-dependent patterns were estimated from an eight year on-going monitoring program of two translocated marble trout populations in pristine, previously fishless streams (Zakojska and Gorska) in the Soca and Idrijca river basins (Slovenia). To explore the importance of disturbance events such as floods on marble trout population dynamics, we performed a PVA under three scenarios: (1) occurrence of both severe and moderate floods; (2) occurrence of only moderate floods; (3) no flood events. Our analysis shows that population viability is threatened only by severe flood events, otherwise the two populations prove to be fairly stable with population abundance fluctuating around stream carrying capacity. A sensitivity analysis performed on model parameters highlighted that density-dependence in first-year survival and the magnitude of reduction in population size after a severe flood are the two most crucial parameters affecting population abundance and quasi-extinction probability, respectively. While only extreme floods can drive the population to extinction, the increase in juvenile survival when population abundance collapses after a major flood may allow the populations to quickly recover from few reproductive individuals back to stream carrying capacity.     

Weed seed bank affected by tillage intensity for barley in Alaska

The weed seed bank of a long-term tillage study in subarctic Alaska was studied at the end of 10 years of continuous spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Tillage treatments were: no-till, disked once (spring), disked twice (spring and fall), and chisel plow (fall). Soil cores were obtained from each tillage treatment and seeds were manually separated from soil after washing through sieves. Tillage treatment had a significant effect on seed density of shepherds purse (Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Medic.), cinquefoil (Potentilla norvegica L.), foxtail barley (Hordeum jubatum L.), and on total seed density. Seed density was higher for these species and total seed density was greater under no-till than under other tillage treatments. Seed density was higher near the soil surface under no-till and chisel plow treatments than under disked treatments, which helps explain the greater difficulty of controlling weeds under reduced tillage.     

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.     

Seed longevity in terrestrial orchids - Potential for persistent in situ seed banks

Terrestrial orchids typically produce numerous small seeds that contain very small nutrient reserves. The seeds are structurally adapted for wind dispersal but little is known about their fate after dispersal. Some studies of seed viability in situ indicate survival for up to two years in temperate orchid species. Seeds stored in the laboratory may last much longer. We investigated seed viability of seven North American orchid species with seed packets buried in a range of soil and wood substrates within their natural habitats. In Goodyera pubescens most seeds germinated within one year. Four other species continued to germinate sparsely during the observation period, but after almost seven years many seeds were still viable. In one species, Liparis liliifolia, seeds that had been in situ for four years had germination rates as high as 68% when sown in vitro with a compatible fungus. The remaining two species did not germinate during the observation period but the seeds were judged to be intact and tested positively for viability after four years in the ground. These observations are interpreted as different species-specific strategies for in situ germination and their seed bank potential is discussed.     

Decline and likely extinction of a northern Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus

Contemporary fire patterns are considered the most likely cause for regional population decline amongst small to medium mammals in northern tropical Australia. Here we assess the extinction risk faced by a vulnerable north Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus in relation to fire frequency. This species has recently suffered a significant contraction in range. We provide the first quantitative evidence to demonstrate the immediate threat destructive wildfires and regular annual fire pose to the long-term population persistence of C. penicillatus. We show that late-dry season fires cause a reduction in both juvenile and adult survival probabilities. However, abundance declined at the unburnt as well as a frequently burnt site, suggesting that fire exclusion alone does not guarantee the species’ long-term persistence. Our model projections indicate that the remaining populations of C. penicillatus on the Northern Territory mainland risk extirpation within the next ten years. Conservation requires decisive management action to ameliorate extensive and destructive fires. A multi-faceted management plan needs to focus on restoring a fire management regime which generates a fine-scale mosaic of burnt and unburnt habitat, and the release of captive bred animals into fenced reserves free of exotic predators.     

The feasibility of using soil seed bank for natural regeneration of degraded sandy grasslands

Desertification in degraded grasslands is manifested through the development of bare sandy patches, which eventually lead to habitat fragmentation. The ability of these bare sandy patches to regenerate naturally through in-situ soil seed banks is not well understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we randomly selected 24 bare sandy patches with areas ranging from 19 to 898 m² in a desertified grassland of the Horqin sandy land, Northern China to determine whether soil seed bank can be used for natural regeneration of bare sandy patches. Species composition and density of soil seed bank as well as aboveground vegetation composition, abundance and coverage were investigated. We then determined their relationships with in-situ habitat characteristics. Our observations showed that the studied area had low soil seed bank density and species richness, as well as depauperate soil seed bank communities. Consequently, local soil seed bank was not able to provide sufficient seed source for natural regeneration. This was indicated by the relationships between aboveground vegetation, soil seed bank and the in-situ habitat characteristics. For bare patches with an area between 300 m² and 900 m², increase the soil seed bank density and species richness should be the main restoration measures. For bare patches with a small area of less than 50 m², restoration of vegetation density should be the main measure. Our data highlighted that different extents of desertification, indicated by different bare patches, are requiring distinct restoration measures.     

A habitat-based population viability analysis for ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) in the United States

Strategies are needed to recover the ocelot Leopardus pardalis from the endangered species list. Recently, a population viability analysis (PVA) was developed which concluded that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the United States (US), with habitat protection and restoration identified as the most effective recovery scenario. We expanded this PVA model by incorporating landscape data to develop a more realistic habitat-based PVA for ocelots in southern Texas. We used RAMAS/gis software to conduct a habitat-based PVA by linking landscape data with a demographic metapopulation model. The primary goal of this study was to provide a model for evaluating ocelot recovery strategies in the US. Each model scenario was simulated 1000 times over 50 years and we defined extinction as one individual remaining. Using the RAMAS/gis program we identified 11 possible ocelot habitat patches (i.e., subpopulations) occurring in southern Texas. In addition, based on the habitat-based PVA model we found that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the US, with reducing road mortality the single most effective strategy. Short-term recovery strategies should include reducing ocelot road mortality, and translocation of ocelots into the US from northern Mexico. Long-term recovery strategies should include the restoration of habitat between and around existing ocelot habitat patches and the establishment of a dispersal corridor between ocelot breeding populations.     

Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors influencing those estimates

Population size is a major determinant of extinction risk. However, controversy remains as to how large populations need to be to ensure persistence. It is generally believed that minimum viable population sizes (MVPs) would be highly specific, depending on the environmental and life history characteristics of the species. We used population viability analysis to estimate MVPs for 102 species. We define a minimum viable population size as one with a 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations. The models are comprehensive and include age-structure, catastrophes, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding depression. The mean and median estimates of MVP were 7316 and 5816 adults, respectively. This is slightly larger than, but in general agreement with, previous estimates of MVP. MVPs did not differ significantly among major taxa, or with latitude or trophic level, but were negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with the length of the study used to parameterize the model. A doubling of study duration increased the estimated MVP by approximately 67%. The increase in extinction risk is associated with greater temporal variation in population size for models built from longer data sets. Short-term studies consistently underestimate the true variances for demographic parameters in populations. Thus, the lack of long-term studies for endangered species leads to widespread underestimation of extinction risk. The results of our simulations suggest that conservation programs, for wild populations, need to be designed to conserve habitat capable of supporting approximately 7000 adult vertebrates in order to ensure long-term persistence.     

An evaluation of the status of five threatened plant species in the Pyrenees

In this paper we assess the conservation status of five of the most threatened species in the Pyrenean range (listed in the European Habitats Directive), and present updates of their distribution, reliable censuses to estimate population sizes, population growth rate, population structure, longevity, reproductive success and frequency of herbivory. Recent surveys and careful censuses revealed that the four taxa exclusively restricted to rocky habitats (Borderea chouardii, Androsace pyrenaica, Petrocoptis pseudoviscosa, Petrocoptis montsicciana) have more populations and/or individuals than previously thought. The remaining species, an orchid (Cypripedium calceolus), showed an important decline in population number. So while the rupicolous taxa might be considered naturally rare, the orchid is becoming rare. We failed to find evidence of current poor performance within populations, as recruitment was detected, population growth rate was quite stable in recent years, fruit and seed set was apparently adequate, and herbivory and predation were absent or very low. Additionally, most of the species show a long life span, which might buffer them against demographic and environmental stochasticity in absence of human disturbance.     

Inbreeding and small population size reduce seed set in a threatened and fragmented plant species, Lupinus sulphureus ssp. kincaidii (Fabaceae)

Willamette Valley upland prairie in western Oregon, USA, has been reduced to less than 1% of its original historic range following European settlement in the 1850s. Lupinus sulphureus ssp. kincaidii (Kincaid's lupine), a threatened species and the primary larval host plant of the endangered Icaricia icarioides fenderi (Fender's blue butterfly), was historically a panmictic metapopulation. Habitat fragmentation may be causing many of the Kincaid's lupine colonies to display typical symptoms of inbreeding depression, such as low seed production. Hand outcrosses on bagged inflorescences significantly increased seed set and seed fitness compared to open pollination and within-colony pollen treatments. Natural seed set was positively correlated with an increase in the number of Kincaid's lupine patches, suggesting that population size limits seed set. An increase in fruit set was positively correlated with Kincaid's lupine raceme number, raceme density, and the number of lupine patches, demonstrating that floral display and population size increase pollinator service. Restoration of Kincaid's lupine populations should consider measures that lessen the effects of inbreeding depression, especially in small, isolated populations, for the long-term persistence of the species.     

Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world

To ensure both long-term persistence and evolutionary potential, the required number of individuals in a population often greatly exceeds the targets proposed by conservation management. We critically review minimum population size requirements for species based on empirical and theoretical estimates made over the past few decades. This literature collectively shows that thousands (not hundreds) of individuals are required for a population to have an acceptable probability of riding-out environmental fluctuation and catastrophic events, and ensuring the continuation of evolutionary processes. The evidence is clear, yet conservation policy does not appear to reflect these findings, with pragmatic concerns on feasibility over-riding biological risk assessment. As such, we argue that conservation biology faces a dilemma akin to those working on the physical basis of climate change, where scientific recommendations on carbon emission reductions are compromised by policy makers. There is no obvious resolution other than a more explicit acceptance of the trade-offs implied when population viability requirements are ignored. We recommend that conservation planners include demographic and genetic thresholds in their assessments, and recognise implicit triage where these are not met.     

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ∼2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality.     

Estimating the minimum viable population size of kaka (Nestor meridionalis), a potential surrogate species in New Zealand lowland forest

While conservation management is increasingly turning towards an ecosystem-level framework, the focus on a small subset of surrogate species has recognised merit given insufficient time, resources, and expertise. The kaka (Nestor meridionalis), a large threatened New Zealand parrot, is an iconic, visible species in lowland forests. As kaka populations are sensitive to mustelid predation and habitat loss, kaka can act as both a flagship and indicator species for healthy lowland forest ecosystems in New Zealand. To ensure the sustained protection of kaka over a sufficient area, this research aims to estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size of kaka in the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, and the management required for population persistence. A post-breeding census, stochastic, age structured Leslie matrix model was developed to estimate the population size having a 95% probability of persistence over 100 years. Scenarios modeling current and alternate management regimes, uncertain life-history traits, and environmental unpredictability were run. The most ‘realistic’ scenario resulted in an MVP size of 258 kaka (155 adults). Maintaining current levels of predator control appears essential to ensure kaka population persistence. An area of >500 km² is proposed to maintain the MVP of kaka based on detailed information on home range size and territory overlap derived from radio-tracking studies. As one of a group of surrogate species in lowland forest ecosystems, kaka may be used to guide management decisions regarding large-scale mustelid trapping and the delineation of habitat area requiring protection in the face of proposed human developments in the region.     

Vital rate sensitivity analysis as a tool for assessing management actions for the desert tortoise

Sensitivity analyses of population growth in desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) have shown no consensus on the limiting vital rate. More importantly, the most sensitive vital rate might not be the most readily manipulated by management, so it begs the question of what actions would be most effective. We compared 13 management alternatives using a vital rate sensitivity analysis that is valid regardless of age structure, and is sensitive to initial population size and time frame, to determine the efforts required for equivalent population growth. We evaluated three time frames, each with five initial population sizes and three initial age distributions. To achieve equivalent population growth, mortality of older females needed to be reduced less than did mortality of other age classes. Similarly, fewer adults needed to be introduced to a population to have the same effect as releasing juveniles, but differences among adult age classes were trivial. A single release (headstarting) required fewer total individuals than did annual releases to achieve the same population growth. Also, the same population growth was more easily achieved when the initial age structure was deficient of young animals. Interestingly, because small tortoises are difficult to survey, some management alternatives could result in increased population size but decreased numbers of countable individuals over short to intermediate (25 years) time frames. Our paper demonstrates an approach to determine what constitutes equivalent management actions for population growth, thus allowing managers to more directly compare expected gains toward population recovery achieved by their resource-allocation decisions.     

Emerging disease and population decline of an island endemic, the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii

We present evidence that Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) is an emerging disease that is now widespread and constitutes a serious threat to the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii. This species, the world’s largest extant marsupial carnivore, is endemic to Tasmania. DFTD is a cancerous disease found exclusively in wild devil populations, and appears to be consistently fatal to afflicted individuals. We draw on data from a wide range of sources and locations across Tasmania, acquired through trapping, spotlighting and public observation, to assess the impact and distribution of this disease. The dramatic tumours characteristic of DFTD were first reported in 1996. There were no reports of these signs in any of more than 2020 individuals trapped previously. Since 1996, DFTD has been histologically confirmed in individuals from 41 separate sites, covering 32 930 km² (51%) of mainland Tasmania. From the few sites for which timing of DFTD emergence can be estimated, there is evidence for geographical spread of the disease. Of 147 devils with DFTD-like signs, at least 140 were sexually mature. Proportion of animals displaying signs at any one site reached up to 83% (15/18) of trapped adults. Spotlighting surveys and trapping indicated a significant local association between population decline and date of first report of DFTD. In the region where the disease was first reported, mean spotlighting sightings declined by 80% from 1993-1995 to 2001-2003. On the basis of the threat posed by DFTD, the devil has been listed as a threatened species in Tasmania, and nominated for listing at national level.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic controls on the distribution of the critically endangered cress, Ischnocarpus exilis (Brassicaceae)

Ischnocarpus exilis, a critically endangered cress, persists in one small population in a 1m² section of a limestone tower in the South Island, New Zealand. The importance of intrinsic (seed production, dispersal ability and habitat specificity) and extrinsic factors (weed competition) acting to restrict the distribution of this threatened species were investigated with a field experiment, demographic monitoring and soil seed bank analysis. I. exilis is not confined to its present site because of high habitat specificity, but rather is limited by low seed production and limited dispersal as well as by competition with invasive weeds. Conservation management of this critically endangered species should focus on controlling weeds and on establishing new populations in suitable weed-free habitat.     

Long-term monitoring of tropical bats for anthropogenic impact assessment: Gauging the statistical power to detect population change

Bats are ecologically important mammals in tropical ecosystems; however, their populations face numerous environmental threats related to climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, hunting, and emerging diseases. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop and implement large-scale networks to monitor trends in bat populations over extended time periods. Using data from a range of Neotropical and Paleotropical bat assemblages, we assessed the ability for long-term monitoring programs to reliably detect temporal trends in species abundance. We explored the magnitude of within-site temporal variation in abundance and evaluated the statistical power of a suite of different sampling designs for several different bat species and ensembles. Despite pronounced temporal variation in abundance of most tropical bat species, power simulations suggest that long-term monitoring programs (?20 years) can detect population trends of 5% per year or more with adequate statistical power (?0.9). However, shorter monitoring programs (?10 years) have insufficient power for trend detection. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that a monitoring program extending over 20 years with four surveys conducted biennially on five plots per monitoring site would have the potential for detecting a 5% annual change in abundance for a suite of bat species from different ensembles. The likelihood of reaching adequate statistical power was sensitive to initial species abundance and the magnitude of count variation, stressing that only the most abundant species in an assemblage and those with generally low variation in abundance should be considered for detailed population monitoring.     

Management effects on the vegetation and soil seed bank of calcareous grasslands: An 11-year experiment

Calcareous grasslands, most of which are man made and therefore depend on some kind of human interference for their maintenance, are among the most species-rich communities on Earth at a small scale. For many centuries, most of these grasslands have been used as extensive pasture. However, after 1900, and particularly from 1940 onwards, livestock grazing has declined throughout Europe leading to the abandonment of low intensity grasslands over large areas. To conserve the remaining grasslands or to restore recently abandoned grasslands, better insights about the effects of grassland management on above and belowground species diversity are needed. Here, we describe the results of an 11-year experiment to investigate the role of grassland management (grazing, mowing and abandonment) in determining species composition and diversity both in the aboveground vegetation and the seed bank of a calcareous grassland in Belgium. Species diversity declined by about 60% 11 years after abandonment, from 29 species m⁻² to as few as 12 species m⁻². Plots that were grazed remained constant in species richness, whereas mown sites lost about 20% of their original species. Abandoned plots were largely dominated by a few grass species, in particular Festuca rubra. Concomitant with changes in the aboveground vegetation, both the number of species found in the seed bank and seed density (number of seeds m⁻²) had changed significantly 11 years after abandonment. Species diversity and seed density were significantly lower in abandoned plots than in grazed or mown plots. We conclude that abandonment of calcareous grasslands may lead to rapid decline of plant species diversity both in the aboveground vegetation and in the seed bank. As a result, seed banks probably have a limited role to play in the restoration of recently abandoned grasslands.     

Population viability, ecological processes and biodiversity: Valuing sites for reserve selection

No-take reserves constitute one tool to improve conservation of marine ecosystems, yet criteria for their placement, size, and arrangement remain uncertain. Representation of biodiversity is necessary in reserve planning, but will ultimately fail for conservation unless factors affecting species’ persistence are also incorporated. This study presents an empirical example of the divergent relationships among multiple metrics used to quantify a site’s conservation value, including those that address representation (habitat type, species richness, species diversity), and others that address ecological processes and viability (density and reproductive capacity of a keystone species, in this case, the black chiton, Katharina tunicata). We characterized 10 rocky intertidal sites across two habitats in Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada, according to these site metrics. High-richness and high-production sites for K. tunicata were present in both habitat types, but high richness and high-production sites did not overlap. Across sites, species richness ranged from 29 to 46, and adult K. tunicata varied from 6 to 22 individuals m⁻². Adult density was negatively correlated with species richness, a pattern that likely occurs due to post-recruitment growth and survival because no correlation was evident with non-reproductive juveniles. Sites with high adult density also contributed disproportionately greater potential reproductive output (PRO), defined by total gonad mass. PRO varied by a factor of five across sites and was also negatively correlated with species richness. Compromise or relative weighting would be necessary to select valuable sites for conservation because of inherent contradictions among some reserve selection criteria. We suspect that this inconsistency among site metrics will occur more generally in other ecosystems and emphasize the importance of population viability of strongly interacting species.