Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming

A generalised linear model was used to predict climatically suitable habitat for the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia De Vis), an endemic species of the Wet Tropics of North Queensland. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean precipitation of the wettest quarter were found to be the best habitat predictors. For independent validation data, accuracy was 67% (Kappa statistic, n=30). Past, and future habitats suitable to the golden bowerbird were mapped by altering the temperature and precipitation input to the model. In the current climate, total potential habitat is estimated to be 1564 km², occurring as a number of separate patches with distinct bowerbird subpopulations. Past habitat was most limiting, 406 km², during the Holocene climatic optimum (c. 5000-3600 YBP, +2 °C and +50% rainfall relative to today). With future warming, assuming a 10% decrease in rainfall, potential habitat is reduced to 582 km² (1 °C warming), 163 km² (2 °C warming) and 37 km² (3 °C warming). Thus, global warming in the coming decades is likely to be a significant threat to the survival of this and similar upland and highland species in the tropics.