Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a changing environment with multiple threats?

The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most critically endangered mammals in the United States and is isolated on the periphery of the species’ range, potentially increasing its conservation priority. To investigate potential threats to the population and provide a tool for land managers, we developed a spatially explicit population dynamics model. We tested model predictions using available range-wide data from the literature and field work specific to the MGRS. A general model input data set using mean life history values overpredicted MGRS abundance. However, we found significant correlation with known squirrel abundance using a general data set with curtailed fecundity and survival. A model with MGRS-specific data provided the best fit to observed population size. We investigated potential impacts of two major threats to the MGRS: competition from introduced Abert’s squirrels (Sciurus aberti) and increased levels of predation. Predation and particularly competition could have significant effects on the future population of the MGRS. Careful attention must be used to model the viability of fringe populations as peripheral populations can have a different life history than populations found in the range core.     

Lessons about extinction and translocation: models for eastern barred bandicoots (Perameles gunnii) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia

In 1998 the protected population of Perameles gunnii (eastern barred bandicoot) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia became functionally extinct following removals of individuals for translocation between 1994 and 1996. Population viability analysis and data collected whilst the population was in decline are used to explore the impact that these removals had on the decline of the P. gunnii population at Woodlands. Due to some ambiguities in the life history of P. gunnii at Woodlands, two structurally different population models were used. Explicitly including the removal of animals in the analysis indicates that there may be at least a three-fold increase in the risk of quasiextinction due to removals. In some scenarios, over 17% of the trajectories decrease to a level less than or equal to 10 females within the observed time period of the collapse of the population, that is by April 1998. The modelling approach identified a number of critical factors in the decline of the population, such as variation in survival rates. By representing the life history strategy using two alternate models, quantitative statements about the impact that removals had on the population decline at Woodlands are made. While removals probably contributed to the collapse of the population, removals were not the sole cause of population decline. The real reasons for decline remain unknown; however, it is likely to be closely linked to habitat decline, difficult environmental conditions and predation. If P. gunnii are reintroduced to Woodlands again, then the models presented here may help to develop management strategies to establish a self sustaining population, as well as exploring translocations options.     

Assessing habitat use of the endangered marine mollusc Patella ferruginea (Gastropoda, Patellidae) in northern Africa: preliminary results and implications for conservation

The limpet Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791, endemic to the Mediterranean, is the most endangered marine species on the list of the European Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitat of Wild Fauna and Flora (1992). Its Mediterranean range has progressively contracted to a few restricted areas and the species is now threatened with extinction. Seventeen stations were sampled along the littoral zone on the coast of Ceuta, North Africa, for quantifying environmental factors (water movement, siltation and suspended solids), and 70 transects were selected for P. ferruginea sampling. The study revealed the presence of a well-established population of P. ferruginea with values of density and size of 0.67 individuals m⁻¹ ±0.96 and 48.94 mm±11.61 respectively (mean±standard error of mean). The biggest densities of P. ferruginea were found inside the harbour of Ceuta. The limpets were more abundant on artificial harbour stones than on natural rocky shores, and the areas under the highest human pressure were characterised by the lowest densities and the smallest specimens probably due mainly to the predation for food and fishing. Human pressure is probably the main contributing factor to the currently endangered status of P. ferruginea. Programmes of environmental education to avoid its collection for fishing, food or for fun as decorative objects should be conducted, and further experimental studies dealing with the reproductive biology of this species are needed to properly assess the future programmes of conservation.     

Strong negative effect of alien herbivores on endemic legumes of the Canary pine forest

We studied the effects of herbivores on populations of four endemic legume species in pine forests in Caldera de Taburiente National Park on La Palma, Canary Islands. Seeds of these species were sown in control and herbivore-exclusion plots. Over the subsequent 4-years period, we assessed the effects of herbivores by counting the number of individual plants that emerged and by following their growth. We assessed growth over time using three plant-size categories. For these four species, we conclude that the presence of herbivores, including barbary sheep (Ammotraguslervia), goat (Caprahircus) and European rabbit (Oryctolaguscuniculus), exerts a strong negative effect on plant establishment. We suggest that the paucity of understory plant species in the pine forests of the Canary Islands may be strongly correlated with the presence of introduced herbivores in this region. We propose urgent conservation measures, such as large fenced areas, control activities and the most effective measure, eradication.     

Evaluating potential infectious disease threats for southern resident killer whales, Orcinus orca: a model for endangered species

Infectious diseases have the potential to play a role in the decline of threatened wildlife populations, as well as negatively affect their long-term viability, but determining which infectious agents present risks can be difficult. The southern resident killer whale, Orcinus orca, population is endangered and little is known about infectious diseases in this species. Using available reference literature, we identified 15 infectious agents (bacteria, viruses, and fungi) reported in free-ranging and captive killer whales, as well as 28 additional infectious agents reported in free-ranging and captive odontocete species sympatric to southern resident killer whales. Infectious agents were scored as having a high, medium, or low ability to affect fecundity or reproductive success, to cause disease in individual animals, and to cause epizootics. Marine Brucella spp., cetacean poxvirus, cetacean morbilliviruses, and herpesviruses were identified as high priority pathogens that warrant further study. Using identified pathogens to develop a standardized necropsy and disease testing protocol for southern resident killer whales and sympatric odontocetes will improve future efforts to better understand the impacts of priority and non-priority infectious agents on southern resident killer whales. This model can be used to evaluate potential infectious disease risks in other threatened wildlife populations.     

Evaluating effects of deforestation, hunting, and El Niño events on a threatened lemur

Madagascar ranks as one of the world’s top extinction hotspots because of its high endemism and high rate of habitat degradation. Global climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillations may have confounding impacts on the island’s threatened biota but these effects are less well known. We performed a demographic study of Propithecus edwardsi, a lemur inhabiting the eastern rainforest of Madagascar, to evaluate the impact of deforestation, hunting, and El Niño on its population and to re-evaluate present endangerment categorization under the IUCN. Over 18 years of demographic data, including survival and fecundity rates were used to parameterize a stochastic population model structured with three stage classes (yearlings, juveniles, and adults). Results demonstrate that hunting and deforestation are the most significant threats to the population. Analysis of several plausible scenarios and combinations of threat revealed that a 50% population decline within three generations was very likely, supporting current IUCN classification. However, the analysis also suggested that changing global cycles may pose further threat. The average fecundity of lemurs was over 65% lower during El Niño years. While not as severe as deforestation or hunting, if El Niño events remain at the current high frequency there may be negative consequences for the population. We suggest that it is most critical for this species continued survival to create more protected areas, not only to thwart hunting and deforestation, but also to give this endangered lemur a better chance to recover from and adapt to altered climate cycles in the future.     

Resource availability, matrix quality, microclimate, and spatial pattern as predictors of patch use by the Karner blue butterfly

Determination of which aspects of habitat quality and habitat spatial arrangement best account for variation in a species’ distribution can guide management for organisms such as the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), a federally endangered subspecies inhabiting savannas of Midwest and Eastern United States. We examined the extent to which three sets of predictors, (1) larval host plant (Lupinus perennis, wild lupine) availability, (2) characteristics of the matrix surrounding host plant patches, and (3) factors affecting a patch’s thermal environment, accounted for variation in lupine patch use by Karner blues at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana and Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA. Each predictor set accounted for 7-13% of variation in patch occupancy by Karner blues at both sites and in larval feeding activity among patches at Indiana Dunes. Patch area, an indicator of host plant availability, was an exception, accounting for 30% of variation in patch occupancy at Indiana Dunes. Spatially structured patterns of patch use across the landscape accounted for 9-16% of variation in patch use and explained more variation in larval feeding activity than did spatial autocorrelation between neighboring patches. Because of this broader spatial trend across sites, a given management action may be more effective in promoting patch use in some portions of the landscape than in others. Spatial trend, resource availability, matrix quality, and microclimate, in general, accounted for similar amounts of variation in patch use and each should be incorporated into habitat management planning for the Karner blue butterfly.     

Impacts of sediment loads, tadpole density, and food type on the growth and development of tadpoles of the spotted tree frog Litoria spenceri: an in-stream experiment

The impact of increased-deposited sediment loads on growth and development of tadpoles of the spotted tree frog, Litoria spenceri, in south-eastern Australia was assessed in conjunction with food type and tadpole density. This investigation was conducted in stream enclosures subjected to varying treatments of tadpole density, substrata and deposited-sediment load. Tadpole growth and development were not significantly affected by food type, but there was a trend toward increased performance on periphyton substrata. Tadpole growth and development were significantly reduced by increases in tadpole density and sediment load. These effects were independent, suggesting that increased sediment load reduced food quality rather than quantity. Activities in catchments that increase sediment loads in streams may adversely affect growth and development of tadpoles of L. spenceri. Increased sediment input into streams may therefore reduce tadpole fitness and recruitment to the terrestrial stage. Disturbance processes that increase stream sediment loads, such as forestry activities and associated road construction, may potentially have contributed to the observed declines of L. spenceri and other lotic anurans in south-eastern Australia.     

Effects of an exotic prey species on a native specialist: Example of the snail kite

Despite acknowledging that exotic species can exhibit tremendous influence over native populations, few case studies have clearly demonstrated the effects of exotic prey species on native predators. We examined the effects of the recently introduced island apple snail (Pomacea insularum) on the foraging behavior and energetics of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida. We conducted time-activity budgets: (i) on kites foraging for native Florida apple snails (Pomacea paludosa) in major wetland units within the kites’ range that had not been invaded by the exotic island apple snail and (ii) on kites foraging for exotic apple snails in Lake Tohopekaliga, the only major wetland utilized by the snail kite that had suffered a serious invasion of P. insularum. When foraging for P. insularum, snail kites dropped a greater proportion of snails, and they experienced increased handling times and decreased consumption rates; however, kites foraging for P. insularum also spent a smaller proportion of the day in flight. Estimates of net daily energy balances between kites feeding on P. insularum versus P. paludosa were comparable for adults, but juveniles experienced energetic deficiencies when feeding on the exotic snail. Due to this discrepancy, we hypothesize that wetlands invaded by P. insularum, such as Lake Tohopekaliga, may function as ecological traps for the snail kite in Florida by attracting breeding adults but simultaneously depressing juvenile survival. This study highlights the conservation implications and importance of elucidating the effects that exotic species have on native specialists, especially those that are endangered, because subtle influences on behavior may have significant population consequences.     

To be or not to be—the effect of nature conservation management on flowering of Paeonia mascula (L.) Miller in Israel

Mount Meiron Nature Reserve is the largest Mediterranean reserve in Israel. Since its establishment, goat grazing and woodcutting have been prohibited and dense oak maquis has developed by succession. The succession of vegetation poses the risk of losing species. The peony (Paeonia masculla) is a locally endangered species in Israel, growing only in a small population in the Mount Meiron Nature Reserve with only 5% of plants flowering. We sought a management practice that would increase the flowering percentage of the peonies and secure the future of its population. We found that flowering peonies grew mainly in locations with about 47% direct sun radiation, while most plants grew under heavy shade with only 27% direct radiation. Creation of small gaps increased the flowering to 15-20%. To ensure the future of the peonies in the Mount Meiron Nature Reserve, small gaps must be created—even if this conflicts with broader current management policies.     

Population ecology of the Chinese grouse, Bonasa sewerzowi, in a fragmented landscape

We report the first population ecology study of the endangered Chinese grouse (Bonasa sewerzowi). The study population was stable during 1995-2000. Annual rates of survival were 0.64 for adults and only 0.17 for chicks to 13 weeks of age. Reproductive parameters were 6.1 eggs/clutch, 63% nest success, and overall 3.6 chicks hatched/female/year. The spring sex ratio was 64% males, with 44% of the males unmated in spring. Local people found an estimated 10-29% of the nests and took the eggs for food. Only about 9% of the reserve containing the study area is mature mixed forest, the preferred habitat. Inadequate brood habitat may have influenced chick survival and the skewed adult sex ratio may be a result of habitat fragmentation. We recommend protecting the remaining mixed forest, creating more brood habitat, and stopping the taking of eggs.     

Assessing waterbird conservation objectives: An example for the Burry Inlet, UK

We use an individual-based model to assess the conservation objectives for knot Calidris canutus L. and oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus L. on the Burry Inlet Special Protection Area (SPA), UK. Population monitoring has identified a decline in oystercatcher numbers, but cannot determine whether this is due to a decline in site quality. Long term data on cockle stocks show that the biomass of the large-sized cockles consumed by oystercatcher declined after 2004, whereas a similar decline was not observed in the smaller cockles consumed by knot. The model postdicts that during the winters of 2005/2006 to 2008/2009 the site was unable to support the number of oystercatcher present at the time it was designated (i.e. the SPA population). Large cockle biomass remained low during 2009/2010, but increases in mussel biomass meant that the model postdicted that the site could support the SPA population of oystercatcher. Knot food supplies remained high during most years, except 2008/2009 during which the model postdicted that the SPA population could not be supported. The model postdicted that the stock reserved for oystercatchers after shellfishing needed to be 2-4 times the amount consumed by the birds in order to support the bird population. We recommend that where necessary, the conservation objectives of waterbirds should be assessed using a combination of thorough population size and behaviour monitoring to identify sites with population declines, and individual-based modelling on these sites to determine whether reduction in site quality may contribute to the site-specific population decline.     

Conservation of the purple gallinule (Porphyrio porphyrio L.) in Portugal: causes of decline, recovery and expansion

Historical data on the distribution and status of the purple gallinule (Porphyrio porphyrio) in Portugal were collected by bibliographic research, from museum catalogues and from questionnaires to wetland managers, ornithologists and birdwatchers. The population suffered severe decline and range contraction at the end of the 19th century and most of the 20th century, due mainly to habitat loss and degradation and excessive hunting. However, the population has begun to recover in the last decade mainly through direct protection of the species and of the remaining habitat, together with creation of artificial wetlands and a reintroduction programme, and probably also due to immigration from Spain. The population size has increased about 10-fold and the range has expanded to most of its former area. The estimated Portuguese breeding population in 2002 was 49-67 pairs. Densities varied between 0.05 and 7 individuals/ha in recently colonized areas and stable (saturated) areas, respectively. Although the population is recovering, its small size, high fragmentation and several natural and anthropogenic threats lead us to consider it still a species of major concern in Portugal.     

Autumn swarming behaviour of Natterer’s bats in the UK: Population size, catchment area and dispersal

Many species of temperate bats visit underground sites in autumn, prior to hibernation, and chase each other in and around the entrances in an event known as autumn swarming. It has been suggested that swarming is a mating event that facilitates gene flow between bats from otherwise isolated summer colonies. We describe swarming behaviour at a cluster of four caves in the North of England and provide direct evidence for seasonal migration of Natterer’s bats (Myotis nattereri ) between these caves and many summer nursery roosts in a catchment area of at least 60 km radius. Mark-recapture analysis suggests that an estimated 2000-6000 Natterer’s bats use the three best-studied caves, together with smaller numbers of four other species: M. daubentonii, M. brandtii, M. mystacinus and Plecotus auritus. Recaptures also show that there is a small interchange of bats between these three caves, which are 0.6-1.5 km apart. Capture rates, automatic logging and video recordings at one cave suggest that an average 310-400 bats visit the cave each night. Mating at swarming sites would be particularly important for gene flow if a species showed no other dispersal pattern. We provide evidence for natal philopatry, with little or no dispersal, in both sexes of Natterer’s bats. The protection of swarming sites is discussed in light of our findings.     

Use of the Biological Flora framework in the United Kingdom Overseas Territories: Euphorbia origanoides L.

The United Kingdom Overseas Territories (UKOTs) are globally important for a high diversity of endemic and threatened plant species but are poorly represented in plant ecological literature. This lack of ecological research is compounded by a lack of funding and skills. Cost effective approaches of compiling conservation relevant information are required. Here we present the first examination of a species from the UKOTs presented within the standard framework of a Biological Flora. This framework allows a convenient way to compile ecological information and assess missing data. The account reviews all available information on Euphorbia origanoides L. (Ascension spurge) from Ascension Island (South Atlantic Ocean) relevant to understanding its ecology and conservation, including soil chemistry, climate and plant community data. E. origanoides is an endemic perennial, found in dry, lava plains of Ascension Island with soils comprised of weathered volcanic scoria. E. origanoides has suffered habitat loss through the introduction of invasive species and survival in the wild is currently under threat. We relate the information gathered for this Biological Flora to the conservation of the species in the wild and propose the framework should be used as one way of compiling information relevant for conservation managers. The framework is beneficial as it allows an evidence-based approach to conservation but also permits the prioritisation of research and can help conservation managers to meet targets for the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation.     

Habitat specificity, seed germination and experimental translocation of the endangered herb Brachycome muelleri (Asteraceae)

Brachycome muelleri Sonder (Corunna daisy) is an endangered annual herb, endemic to the upper Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. It is restricted to a single population occupying an area of approximately 3 ha on steep, south-facing cliff-foot slopes of the Baxter Hills. Its unique habitat, within an otherwise generally arid region, optimises soil moisture retention through the provision of concentrated water catchment, shade, and low evaporation rates during the growing season. Weeds had the potential to significantly disrupt recruitment, growth and reproductive output, but grazing did not constitute a direct threat to the population. Fresh seeds were innately dormant, requiring a period of after-ripening before they would germinate. Dormancy was artificially broken by gibberellic acid (GA₃) treatment. Germination was optimal at 20 °C, and it was proposed that temperature plays an important role in regulating germination in situ. B. muelleri seeds did not respond to smoked water treatment, and GA₃ (1000 mg l⁻¹) was recommended as a routine seed treatment to stimulate germination. Trial translocations using seed as founder propagules resulted in low establishment, growth and flowering rates. Established seedlings provided several advantages over seed as founder propagules, including higher success rates, more vigorous growth, and improved seed yields in the first season. Successful regeneration, proliferation and expansion of a new translocated population was observed and recorded over four consecutive years. We suggest that conservation management of this species should include the establishment of several new populations by translocation to suitable, isolated, weed-free sites.     

Controlled ectomycorrhization of an exotic legume tree species Acacia holosericea affects the structure of root nodule bacteria community and their symbiotic effectiveness on Faidherbia albida, a native Sahelian Acacia

Many fast growing tree species have been introduced to promote biodiversity rehabilitation on degraded tropical lands. Although it has been shown that plant productivity and stability are dependent on the composition and functionalities of soil microbial communities, more particularly on the abundance and diversity of soil symbiotic micro-organisms (mycorrhizal fungi and rhizobia), the impact of tree introduction on soil microbiota has been scarcely studied. This research has been carried in a field plantation of Acacia holosericea (Australian Acacia species) inoculated or not with an ectomycorrhizal fungus isolate, Pisolithus albus IR100. After 7 year's plantation, the diversity and the symbiotic properties of Bradyrhizobia isolated from the plantation soil or from the surrounding area (Faidherbia albida (Del.) a. Chev. parkland) and able to nodulate F. albida, a native Sahelian Acacia species, have been studied. Results clearly showed that A. holosericea modified the structure of Bradyrhizobia populations and their effectiveness on F. albida growth. This negative effect was counterbalanced by the introduction of an ectomycorrhizal fungus, P. albus, on A. holosericea root systems.In conclusion, this study shows that exotic plant species can drastically affect genotypic and symbiotic effectiveness of native Bradyrhizobia populations that could limit the natural regeneration of endemic plant species such as F. albida. This effect could be counterbalanced by controlled ectomycorrhization with P. albus. These results have to be considered when exotic tree species are used in afforestation programs that target preservation of native plants and soil ecosystem rehabilitation.     

How important is clonal recruitment for population maintenance in rare plant species?: the case of the narrow endemic cactus, Stenocereus eruca, in Baja California, México

Stenocereus eruca is a postrate columnar cactus whose regeneration seems to occur mainly through clonal propagation. It is a narrow endemic species of the Sonoran desert in Baja California Sur and currently considered as threatened under Mexican legislation. In this paper we describe the demography of ramets in four populations along its distribution range and the demography of genets in one population during a 3-year-study period in order to evaluate its conservation status. We also analyze the relative contribution of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation to population maintenance and provide guidelines for the formulation of conservation programs. Elasticity analyses were used to explore the relative contribution of sexual and clonal recruitment to projected population growth rate (λ). During the three years of study, regeneration occurred only through clonal propagation while sexually derived seedlings were not detected within or outside the permanent plots. Our demographic data showed that the four population of S. eruca are in equilibrium (λ ≈ 1), and elasticity analyses showed that the relative contribution to λ of clonal recruitment was larger than sexual recruitment, at least during the analyzed ecological time scale. Simulations showed that removing sexual recruitment had a minor impact on λ, but the absence of clonal propagation alone was sufficient to keep below unity. We propose the establishment of at least one reserve with adequate protection from human disturbance to conserve S. eruca.     

Impact of the colonisation of Zaprionus (Diptera, Drosophilidae) in different ecosystems of the Neotropical Region: 2 years after the invasion

The drosophilid Zaprionus indianus was not collected in Brazil, despite on-going drosophilid collecting, until 1999. Since 1999 this species has become common in Brazil. We present data on collections of Z. indianus in central Brazil, since its first occurrence in this region, with the goal of discussing its route of introduction in South America and aspects of its adaptation to the environment. Collections made during a 2-year period show different seasonal distribution patterns of this insect. In contrast with the low population sizes registered in 1999, during the summer of 2000 a large proliferation of this insect was detected. We show that Z. indianus is more common in the savanna sites and that its population peaks during the wet season. These preferences are discussed, and the hypothesis that the introduction in South America should have occurred in the southeast region of this continent is defended.     

Dragon’s blood tree - Threatened by overmaturity, not by extinction: Dynamics of a Dracaena cinnabari woodland in the mountains of Soqotra

Age determination of tropical trees, and monocotyledons in general, is not an easy task. Representatives of the Dracaena genus have survived in woodlands on dry margins of the Tethys tropical forest since the Tertiary Period. Here we present analyses of Dracaena cinnabari (DC) stand dynamics via direct and indirect methods of age determination. The direct method has taken advantage of historical photographs of DC mountain woodlands from Soqotra during an Austrian scientific expedition in 1899 by comparing these with the woodland stage in 2004. A decline in the number of tree individuals is obvious, but considering the little that is known about dynamics of DC woodland, one cannot simply state that such decline means forest destruction. The results from this direct method are compared to an indirect mathematical method of age determination using data from 2003. Indirect age determination values differed only about 6.5% from those obtained with the direct method, indicating that the indirect methodology is quite precise.