Declines in abundance and distribution of the ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) in Arctic Canada

The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) is a seabird that inhabits Arctic oceans throughout the year, often in association with polar pack ice. It is rare (<14,000 breeding pairs globally) and remains one of the most poorly known seabird species in the world. Canada supports breeding populations of international significance, and residents of communities in the Canadian High Arctic currently observe fewer ivory gulls than they did in the 1980s. However, no population trend data existed for this species in Canada prior to this study. We initiated aerial surveys in July 2002 and 2003 of most known ivory gull colonies in Canada to assess current population levels. Forty two colonies were visited, 14 of which were new discoveries. We recorded an 80% decline in numbers of nesting ivory gulls. Several of the largest known colonies were completely extirpated and those that remained supported significantly fewer nesting birds than previously observed. Results were similar in both years despite some differences in local sea ice conditions, suggesting a numerical decline in the population and not simply annual fluctuations in colony occupation. Declines have occurred in all habitat types and across the known Canadian breeding range, suggesting that causes of the decline may be related to factors occurring during migration or on wintering grounds. We recommend that international efforts now be directed at assessing population status and trends of this species in other circumpolar countries.     

Protected areas do not fulfil the wintering habitat needs of the trans-Saharan migratory Montagu’s harrier

Populations of migratory birds can be affected by events happening at both breeding and wintering grounds. The Sahel is a vast region holding a large number of wintering trans-Saharan migratory European birds, and current land-use changes there may represent a threat for these species. We used satellite tracking data from the migratory Montagu’s harrier to evaluate habitat use of the species during the wintering season, and whether the current network of protected areas is effective to provide their habitat needs during that season. We also developed an ecological niche model for the species in Western-Central Sahel to check if the most suitable sites are included within current protected areas. Tracked harriers occupied a large region encompassing a total of eight countries. The most preferred habitats during winter were croplands and some natural vegetation habitats, especially grasslands. Protected areas only covered a small proportion of the overall wintering grounds of tracked harriers and the most suitable areas for the species in Western-Central Sahel. Increasing the extent of preferred natural habitats within protected areas should benefit the conservation of this and probably other insect-eating raptors. However, substantial increases in extent and number of protected areas in sub-Saharan Africa are very unlike to occur. Conservation actions in the region should therefore be mostly focused on improving land use planning and management outside protected areas, specially enhancing agricultural practices to make biodiversity conservation compatible with poverty alleviation. These can be chiefly targeted at an area of <20,000 km² of very suitable habitat for these species.     

Population genetic structure in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada: Implications of future climate change

The primary habitat for polar bears is sea ice, yet unlike most of the high Arctic, Hudson Bay undergoes a summer ice-free period that forces all bears ashore until ice forms again in fall. Polar bear populations in the greater Hudson Bay region have been placed in four management units based primarily on data from tag returns from harvested animals, capture-recapture studies, and conventional and satellite telemetry. Our results indicate that there is a high level of gene flow among management units observed using 26 microsatellite loci and analysis of genetic profiles of 377 polar bears. However, individual-based Bayesian analysis identified population genetic structuring into three clusters and significant F_ST differentiation. Specifically, our data suggest differentiation of polar bears sampled from islands in James Bay. These results were in spite of the extensive dispersal capabilities of polar bears that could homogenize the population. Mapping of high-ancestry individuals suggests that two of the three clusters have foci in southern Hudson Bay and may be a result of predictable annual freeze-thaw patterns that are maintaining breeding ‘groups’. Predicted changes in the distribution and duration of sea ice in Hudson Bay suggest that gene flow among these clusters may be reduced in the future.     

Waterfowl-habitat associations during winter in an urban North Atlantic estuary

Coastal habitats near urban centres in North Atlantic estuaries often support substantial numbers of wintering waterfowl, but little is known of the effects of landscape setting and urbanisation on habitat use. We conducted surveys of waterfowl at 32 wintering sites in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to identify characteristics that may influence habitat use. Sites were chosen along a gradient of urbanisation and reflected the dominant habitat types used by waterfowl in the Bay. Mean waterfowl abundance was 206.7 ± 209.5 birds per site, and sites in the inner part of the estuary had higher overall waterfowl abundances (r² = 0.40, p = 0.021). Species richness ranged from 3.2 to 13.0 and decreased with increasing hunting activity (r² = 0.36, p = 0.040). Hunting activity and habitat characteristics (e.g., latitude, shoreline configuration, prey density) explained 13-27% of the variation in waterfowl abundance and species richness among sites, but landscape characteristics (e.g., surrounding residential development, vegetated land, or wetland surrounding the sites and the extent of wetland edge) explained an additional 1-26%. The landscape characteristics extent of adjacent residential development and vegetated upland were the most common variables entering into the models; most species were more abundant at sites with more adjacent vegetated upland and less adjacent residential development. Our results suggest that landscape setting may be influencing the distribution of wintering waterfowl, and should be considered when developing strategies for the conservation for these species in urban North Atlantic estuaries.     

Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

We present the first continent-wide analysis of the population trends of European breeding birds to show that populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds have shown a pattern of sustained, often severe, decline. The mean trend of inter-continental migrants was significantly negative between 1970 and 1990 and non-significantly so between 1990 and 2000. Mean population trends were positively correlated between periods, suggesting little change in the trajectory of most migrant species’ populations over this 30-year period. In both periods, trends of inter-continental migrants were significantly more negative than those of short-distance migrants or residents. This negative trend appeared to be largely, although not entirely, due to declines in species wintering in dry, open habitats in Africa. Analyses of trends of 30 closely related pairs of species, one a long-distance migrant and the other not, indicated significantly more negative trends in the former, irrespective of breeding habitat. Conservation action to address these declines is required under the Convention on Migratory Species and the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy, to which most European countries are signatories and which aim, respectively, to conserve migratory species and to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010. Our results indicate that more conservation action may be required outside Europe to achieve these targets. Further research is needed to assess whether the declines are caused by factors operating on the birds’ wintering grounds, breeding grounds or on migration routes, and to identify ways to reverse them.     

An Estimation of the Potential Fluxes of Nitrogen Phosphorus, Cadmium and Lead from Sea Ice and Snow in the Northern Baltic Sea

The amount of nutrients (N and P) and trace elements (Cd and Pb)accumulated and incorporated into the snow and sea ice cover was assessed for the northern Baltic Sea, resulting in an estimate for the potential flux of nutrients and trace elements to underlying waters during sea ice and snow melt. From the atmosphere the sea ice and snow cover accumulate less than 3% of the annual N and P load, and about 5% of the annual Cd and Pb load to the Bothnian Bay. The atmospheric deposition of nutrients to the northern Baltic Sea has declined considerably during the last decade. The total accumulation in the snow and ice, from the atmosphere and seawater, make up to 6% of the annual nutrient and up to 40% of the annual Cd and Pb load into the Bothnian Bay. Thus sea ice plays an important, but still poorly understood role in chemical cycling, transformations, and budgets. The fate of substances accumulated and released from snow and sea ice merit further investigation, especially if sea ice is a source and a platform for transformation of accumulated substances, thus indirectly affecting their toxicity and/or bioavailability before they are released to the water column.     

Arctic marine mammals as integrators and indicators of mercury in the Arctic

Mercury concentrations were determined in liver, kidney and muscle of belugas, narwhal, whitebeaked dolphins, pilot whales, ringed seals, harp seals and walrus. Tissue collections and analyses were performed largely over the past 10 years. Sampling sites ranged across the Canadian Arctic from the Mackenzie Delta and Banks Island in the west, Grise Fjord in the north, the Atlantic coast in the east and south. High Hg levels in the liver of ringed seals from the western Arctic, collected in 1987 and 1988 were similar to previously-reported values for ringed seals collected in 1973 and 1972 from the same area. Comparison among different marine mammal species showed substantial inherent differences in Hg levels among different species. White-beaked dolphins and walrus had much less Hg than pilot whales. A comparison of Hg levels in ringed seals from locations across the Arctic and Hudson Bay showed that Hg was generally higher in ringed seals from the western than the eastern Arctic, indicating a possible influence of the different geological settings in the eastern and western Arctic. The effect of age was considered in these comparisons. A similar, but less pronounced effect was noted for belugas, with some possible anthropogenic influence on animals in Hudson Bay. The spatial trend in Hg levels in animals appeared to be largely present-day background concentration reflecting geological differences between the eastern and western Arctic. Higher Hg concentration were present in surficial sediments and coastal waters in the western Arctic than the eastern Arctic in accord with the Hg trend observed in seals and belugas.     

基于格网GIS的喀斯特山区草地生态脆弱性评价

以贵州省长顺县为研究区,以多元空间信息为基础,采用层次分析法(AHP)和主成分分析法并结合格网GIS技术,对评价体系中的各指标进行10m×10m尺度下的格网化,运用栅格数据的空间叠加方法及生态脆弱性的评价模型,分析获得了长顺县草地生态脆弱性的空间数据。根据生态脆弱性指数(EVI)将喀斯特山区的草地资源生态脆弱程度分为5个等级。分析结果显示,严重脆弱区的面积为36.32km2,所占比重最大;其次是中度脆弱区和极端脆弱区面积分别为28.09和24.99km2,最后,轻度脆弱区和潜在脆弱区面积分别为16.54和8.60km2,所占比重较小。从总体上看,长顺县草地生态脆弱性等级较高,喀斯特山区草地的生态脆弱性主要是由于特殊的地质背景和人类频繁活动干扰的结果。     

Toxicity survey of Canadian Arctic marine sediments

Purpose

This paper reports a toxicity survey of Canadian Arctic marine sediments. During the Amundsen scientific cruise, eight sites distributed across the Canadian Arctic and sub-Arctic regions were selected to highlight sensitive areas affected by either atmospheric deposition, ocean current, river drainage, or anthropogenic activities. As part of the Canadian-led ArcticNet research program, this study aims to monitor and to better understand potential changes likely to impact the Arctic.

Materials and methods

Surface sediments were investigated with bioanalytical tests to assess sediment toxicity. Testing of sediment elutriates was undertaken with the ARTOXKIT M, Microtox liquid phase (MLPA), and ROTOXKIT M toxicity assays, while whole sediment testing was carried out with the Microtox solid phase assay (MSPA) toxicity test procedure. Sediment mercury (Hg) content was also determined in each sample since Hg transport and toxicity is specifically an important issue in the Arctic and is generally a key indicator of the pollution status in many aquatic ecosystems.

Results and discussion

Based on bioassay results and sediment granulometric criteria, these Arctic sediments must be considered nontoxic. However, based on MSPA half maximal inhibitory concentrations (IC50s) and/or MLPA threshold effect concentration (TEC) values, some degree of toxicity may be measureable particularly in the sediments located in southern and northeast Hudson Bay. The Hudson Bay watershed drains 30% of Canadian rivers and extends to northern USA. Despite the large Hg concern in the Arctic, the input of local or long-range Hg sources does not appear to be a contributing factor to sediment toxicity.

Conclusions

These initial results are valuable in that they set baseline quality levels for these sediments as of 2005. As such, future comparisons can be made to assess temporal and spatial trends. Human activity and climate change is expected to impact these regions in the future, resulting in further reduction of sea ice extent, access to new Arctic seaways, and drilling associated with the exploitation of natural resources.     

Alarming houbara bustard population trends in Asia

Relative abundance and density estimates of Asian houbara were assessed during the breeding season in two breeding grounds of migrant populations (China and south Kazakhstan) and in one breeding ground of a resident population (Oman), between 1998 and 2002. For the study period, the relative abundance was from 0.004 to 0.06 individual per km driven and density estimates varied from 0.01 to 0.2 houbara per km². Relative abundance and density of houbara declined by 63% and 69%, respectively in China, by 60% and 49%, respectively in Kazakhstan and by 50% and 75%, respectively in Oman. Overall, an average of 27-30% annual decline in both relative abundance and density was observed for the three regions. Despite being legally a strictly protected species in China, Kazakhstan and Oman, houbara are heavily hunted and poached on all their migration routes and wintering grounds. The current levels of hunting and poaching are not sustainable and without the immediate agreement and implementation of international conservation measures, the Asian houbara may face extinction in the wild in the foreseeable future.     

Migration routes and important resting areas of Siberian cranes (Grus leucogeranus) between northeastern Siberia and China as revealed by satellite tracking

In 1995 and 1996 thirteen Siberian cranes (Grus leucogeranus) were fitted with satellite transmitters on the breeding grounds in northeastern Siberia. Eleven of these 13 birds were successfully satellite tracked, and five of these 11 provided complete migratory information from their breeding grounds in Yakutia, Siberia, to their wintering area at Poyang Lake, in China. Several stopover sites were identified, the most important being in Qiqihar-Baicheng (China), Shuangtaizi River delta (China), and Yellow River delta (China). Birds rested more frequently in Russia than in China, suggesting availability of suitable wetland habitat in Russia and absence of adequate, suitable wetland habitat in China. Wintering habitat in China also faces numerous threats. Habitats utilized by Siberian cranes are also important to other threatened wetland birds that have been satellite-tracked recently. If Siberian crane habitat needs fail to be addressed, this critically endangered species will be further endangered.     

An integrated analysis into the causes of ungulate mortality in the Wanda Mountains (Heilongjiang Province, China) and an evaluation of habitat quality

As part of our ungulate population protection program, the specific causes of ungulate mortality were examined and the effect of single habitat on habitat selection by ungulate analyzed. An integrated occurrence–mortality model for three ungulate species (wild boar Sus scrofa L., red deer Cervus elaphus L. and roe deer Capreolus capreolus Pallas) within the Wanda Mountains of Heilongjiang Province, China was then created. Results showed that steel cable snares and poison, used to kill ungulates, were the primary threats to survival of wild boar (40.07% poison, 27.79% cable snares), red deer (51.35% poison, 40.54% cable snares) and roe deer (29.31% poison, 56.90% cable snares). Furthermore, we found evidence that aspect, slope, elevation and forest type are important factors in determining ungulate habitat preference. The integrated occurrence–mortality model indicated that 46.39% of suitable habitat was associated with mortality risk. This model correctly classified 8.06% (297.49 km²) of the study area as unsuitable habitat, 5.43% (200.44 km²) as first attractive sink-like habitat, 32.76% (1209.85 km²) as second attractive sink-like habitat, 8.20% (302.77 km²) as third attractive sink-like habitat, and 8.91% (329.00 km²), 30.53% (1127.22 km²) and 6.11% (225.29 km²) as first, second and third source-like habitats, respectively. The results indicate that source-like habitats should be preserved to prevent habitat loss and degradation, while attractive sink-like habitats should be managed effectively to mitigate mortality risks. In particular, the various authorities need to be more proactive (increase patrolling, thereby providing employment, educational opportunities and increasing income) to reduce human-caused ungulate mortality.     

沙棘林退化对土壤性质及水土流失的影响

辽宁省建平县有亚洲最大的人工沙棘(Hippophae rhamnoides Linn.)林,对防治当地水土流失具有重要的作用。然而由于多种原因,该区沙棘林呈现大面积死亡的现象。通过样地调查沙棘林的死亡程度,并进行土壤理化性质和水土流失的测定,研究了沙棘林退化对土壤性状和水土流失量的影响。结果表明,随着沙棘活立木数量的减少,土壤容重增加1.40%~7.31%,有机碳含量和全氮含量分别降低7.81%~21.89%和9.33%~27.65%,说明沙棘林退化对土壤结构和养分产生显著的破坏作用。人工模拟降雨试验表明,纯沙棘林地的水土流失较轻,侵蚀模数为539t/(a·km2)。随着沙棘死亡率的提高,水土流失逐步加剧,入侵树种榆树纯林(Vlmus pumila)地达到1 526t/(a·km2)。土壤性质的恶化和水土流失的加剧,会对土壤有机质和土壤结构进一步破坏,使沙棘死亡速度加快,从而形成恶性循环。     

Factors affecting abundance of bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus in the eastern arctic of North America, 1915–1980

The severely depleted bowhead whale Balaena mysticetus has failed to recover from overexploitation during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Eastern Arctic. Although commercial whaling for bowheads ended in this region about 1915, bowhead whaling by native people has continued until recently in parts of the Eastern Arctic. Low-level but persistent hunting by Inuit (Eskimos) may have inhibited bowhead population increase. Two natural mortality factors can be documented—ice entrapment and predation by killer whales Orcinus orca. There is little direct evidence of ice-related mortality but a strong circumstantial argument that ice conditions affect survival. Killer whales are known to prey on most species of large whales, and we believe bowhead whales and right whales Eubalaena glacialis are especially vulnerable. The bowhead's apparent failure to recover in the Eastern Arctic may be due to a combination of continued low-level hunting, habitat instability, and predation. Complete protection from all forms of hunting is necessary to ensure the bowhead's survival. Environmental disturbances due to industrial development in the Arctic may have direct and indirect impact on bowhead habitat and behaviour, creating an urgent need for further study.     

Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming

A generalised linear model was used to predict climatically suitable habitat for the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia De Vis), an endemic species of the Wet Tropics of North Queensland. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean precipitation of the wettest quarter were found to be the best habitat predictors. For independent validation data, accuracy was 67% (Kappa statistic, n=30). Past, and future habitats suitable to the golden bowerbird were mapped by altering the temperature and precipitation input to the model. In the current climate, total potential habitat is estimated to be 1564 km², occurring as a number of separate patches with distinct bowerbird subpopulations. Past habitat was most limiting, 406 km², during the Holocene climatic optimum (c. 5000-3600 YBP, +2 °C and +50% rainfall relative to today). With future warming, assuming a 10% decrease in rainfall, potential habitat is reduced to 582 km² (1 °C warming), 163 km² (2 °C warming) and 37 km² (3 °C warming). Thus, global warming in the coming decades is likely to be a significant threat to the survival of this and similar upland and highland species in the tropics.     

Mercury Transport in a Low-Arctic River in Kobbefjord, West Greenland (64° N)

Mercury (Hg) transport was studied in a river in Kobbefjord, near Nuuk in West Greenland, during the 2009 and 2010 summer periods. The river drains an area of 32?km², and the Kobbefjord area is considered representative to low-Arctic West Greenland. The river water origins from both precipitation and melting of small glaciers and annual water discharges for 2009 and 2010 were estimated to be 29 and 26 million?m³, respectively. Mean Hg concentrations (±SD) were 0.46?±?0.17 and 0.26?±?0.17?ng?L^?1 for 2009 and 2010. The annual Hg transport was estimated to 14 and 6.4?g, corresponding to a transport rate of 0.45 and 0.20?g Hg km^?2?year^?1 from the river basin. The highest Hg concentrations (up to 1.0?ng?L^?1) and discharges were measured in spring 2009 along with melting of extensive amounts of snow deposited during the 2008?C2009 winter period. In contrast, the following 2009?C2010 winter period was relatively dry with less snowfall. This indicates that a major fraction of the Hg in this area is likely to come from Hg deposited along with winter precipitation (as wet deposition) released upon snowmelt. Also, the results show that while Hg concentrations were low in Kobbefjord River compared to other sub-Arctic/Arctic rivers, the annual Hg transport rates from the basin area were within the range reported for other sub-Arctic/Arctic areas.     

Losing a staging area: Eastward redistribution of Afro-Eurasian ruffs is associated with deteriorating fuelling conditions along the western flyway

The fuelling performance of long-distance migrants at staging areas indicates local conditions and determines the viability of migration routes. Here we present a first case study where long-term fuelling performance was documented along two migration routes with differential population trends. Ruffs (Philomachus pugnax) are shorebirds of inland freshwater wetlands that migrate from the sub-Saharan wintering grounds, via Europe, to the northern Eurasian breeding grounds. Assessments from 2001 to 2008 of fuelling during northward migration at the major western and eastern staging site revealed that daily mass gain rates steeply declined across years in the grasslands for dairy production in Friesland, The Netherlands, and remained constant in the Pripyat floodplains in Belarus, 1500 km further east. Migrants in Friesland decreased from 2001 to 2010 by 66%, amounting to a loss of 21,000 individuals when counts were adjusted for length of stay as determined by resightings. In the same period numbers in Pripyat increased by 12,000. Ruffs individually ringed in Friesland were resighted in subsequent springs at increasingly eastern sites including Pripyat. Our results corroborate published evidence for an eastward redistribution of Arctic breeding ruffs and suggest that the decreasing fuelling rates in the westernmost staging area contribute to this redistribution. The shift implies that responses occur within a single generation. The hypothesis that the choice of route during northward migration may be driven by food availability can now be tested by creating greater areas of wet grasslands in Friesland. When local staging conditions improve we predict that ruffs will make the reverse shift.     

Populations of breeding waders charadrii and their habitats on the crofting lands of the outer hebrides,Scotland

The islands in the southern half of the Outer Hebrides (the Southern Isles) hold very high densities of six species of breeding waders. The waders are largely confined to the Atlantic fringes where there are large deposits of shell-sand. This coastal strip is a complex of dry and wet habitats, dominated by level sandy plains (machair). Transition grassland (blackland) exists between the machair and the peatlands of the interior. Surveys in 1983 and 1984 showed that waders were distributed at high density throughout most of the 186 km² of machair and blackland of the larger islands: the overall density of waders exceeded 80 pairs km⁻² but the average density in some habitats exceeded 200 pairs km⁻². Nowhere else in Britain supports a similar assemblage of species of breeding waders. The density of waders is unique in Britain for such a large area of land. The Southern Isles support approximately a quarter of the British population of ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula and as much as a third of Britain's breeding dunlins Calidris alpina. The Southern Isles are amongst the most important breeding grounds for waders in the north-west Palearctic. Internationally they represent a particularly important habitat for the southern dunlin C. alpina schinzii and the densities of C. hiaticula are probably the highest in Europe.     

1987-2017年莱州湾沿岸土地利用变化及其对海岸线变化的影响

[目的]阐释莱州湾沿岸土地利用变化及其对海岸线的影响,为政府以及相关部门在进行海岸线规划提供土地利用方面的数据支撑。[方法]提取莱州湾近岸1987-2017年的土地利用变化信息以及海岸线空间分布,计算土地利用程度指数,随后利用DSAS计算相邻时相海岸线各段的变化速率,通过ArcGIS软件的叠加分析工具,得到影响各个时相海岸线变化速率和海岸线长度的信息。[结果]①1987-2017年,水产养殖用地、盐场用地以及建设用地面积逐渐增加;内陆水体面积总体呈增加趋势;裸地呈减少趋势;草地和耕地则先增加后减少;林地变化不明显。②土地利用程度逐渐变强,土地利用程度强等级由零散点分布变为集中面状分布。③土地利用以围填海的形式影响海岸线的变化速率。莱州湾内部的围海和人工填海使得岸线向海推进。黄河泥沙淤积填海使得黄河三角洲处的岸线向海推进,而该处岸线的背海移动则主要受到海水影响。[结论]莱州湾沿岸土地利用变化明显,土地利用程度逐年变强。土地利用以围填海的形式影响海岸线的变化速率,使得海岸线既有向海推进又有背海移动。裸地和水产养殖用地为1987-2005年影响海岸线长度的主导因素,建设用地和裸地为2005-2017年影响海岸线长度的主导因素。     

Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3-6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28-48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days. Expected changes in survival are non-linear (sigmoid) as a function of fasting period length. Second, we use an encounter rate model to predict changes in female mating probability under sea ice area declines and declines in mate-searching efficiency due to habitat fragmentation. The model predicts that mating success will decline non-linearly if searching efficiency declines faster than habitat area, and increase non-linearly otherwise. Specifically for the Lancaster Sound population, we predict that female mating success would decline from 99% to 91% if searching efficiency declined twice as fast as sea ice area, and to 72% if searching efficiency declined four times as fast as area. Sea ice is a complex and dynamic habitat that is rapidly changing. Failure to incorporate climate change effects into population projections can result in flawed conservation assessments and management decisions.