Threats from overhunting to the flying fox, Pteropus tonganus, (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) on Niue Island, South Pacific Ocean

Flying fox fruit bats are hunted in an annual 2-month season in Niue, a small and isolated South Pacific island nation. The sustainability of this hunt has been questioned because of an obvious recent decline. We estimated the island-wide flying fox population to be between 2040 and 4080 bats, 2 months prior to the 1998-1999 hunt. Sixty hunters interviewed after the hunt had shot 1555 bats, an unsustainable number. Many Niueans believe that an infinite quantity of flying foxes live in two small taboo or forbidden areas that originally acted as wildlife sanctuaries to safeguard animal resources for times of famine. However, our surveys suggest only a small colony roosts in one taboo area. Niueans' belief that taboo areas shelter an unlimited number of bats cannot be refuted as the areas may not be visited. Consequently, few people believe that the population is being overharvested.     

Conservation of Pteropus livingstonii based on roost site habitat characteristics on Anjouan and Moheli, Comoros islands

Livingstone's fruit bats, Pteropus livingstonii, (Pteropodidae: Chiroptera) are endemic to only two islands, Moheli and Anjouan of the Comoros Islands in the West Indian Ocean. With an estimated population of less than 2000 individuals, P. livingstonii is listed as Critically Endangered on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Red List. Yet the habitat characteristics of these giant fruit bats, or flying foxes, are poorly known. I conducted field research during 5 months in 1998 focused on finding new roost sites, measuring characteristics of both roost sites and roost trees at new as well as previously identified roost sites, and recording the same characteristics for a set of absence sites. I identified six new roost sites allowing me to measure the characteristics of 15 known roost sites and seven absence sites. The study spanned both dry and rainy seasons and I found a significant increase in the number of individuals at roost sites during the rainy season. Bat roost sites were associated with presence of water, southeast aspect, steep slopes, and presence of several native tree species. Roost habitat was characterized based on biotic, abiotic and human factors. This research on habitat characteristics is contributing to the development of a conservation action plan for the Livingstone's fruit bats. However, further research on dry season roost sites and distribution as well as feeding sites is necessary in order to better understand their seasonal habitat requirements and therefore ensure the conservation of P. livingstonii.     

Abiotic and vertebrate seed dispersal in the Brazilian Atlantic forest: implications for forest regeneration

This study documents the proportion of woody plant species having different modes of seed dispersal, and classes of seed and fruit size at 16 Atlantic montane forest plots of southeastern Brazil (23-24° S). These plots represent six chronosequences (from 5-year-old to old-growth forest) of forest regeneration following small-scale shifting agriculture. Our results indicate that there is a gradual but predictable increase in the number of woody plant species relying on vertebrate-mediated seed dispersal in increasingly older plots. Moreover, the percentage of plant species bearing small seeds and fruits (< 0.6 cm in length) was more than halved from earlier to older forest plots, while the percentage of plant species producing middle-sized seeds and fruits at least doubled. Plant species belonging to the Melastomataceae, Myrsinaceae, Rubiaceae and Flacourtiaceae comprised a large proportion of the small-seeded and fruit species (33-53%), and largely occurred in early successional forest plots (5-30 years old). In contrast, species belonging to the Myrtaceae and Lauraceae represented most of the species (51-72%) bearing medium-sized seeds and fruits (0.6-1.5 cm in length), and occurred primarily in the old-growth forests. Shifts in the relative importance of dispersal strategies during the regeneration process of Atlantic montane forest, as well as in diaspore size appear to be related to the balance between early successional and shade-tolerant species associated with particular life forms and plant families. Finally, we discuss the relationships between the species richness of Myrtaceae and Lauraceae trees, seed dispersal by medium to large vertebrates, and possible regeneration scenarios for the Atlantic forest.     

Effect of forest fragmentation on fruit and seed predation of the tropical dry forest tree Ceiba aesculifolia

Forests fragmentation reduces the density of natural plant populations forming patches of the remaining individuals. One of the biotic interactions that can be affected by forest fragmentation and is poorly studied is seed predation. We determined the effects of forest fragmentation on seed and fruit predation in Ceiba aesculifolia by comparing trees in continuous forest with trees in fragmented forest. We compared the following variables: (a) frequency of fruit predation by Collie’s squirrel (Sciurus colliaei) in each habitat; (b) frequency of the cotton-staining bug seed predator (Dysdercus, Orden Hemiptera) in each habitat; (c) the effect of seed predation on germination frequency and time; and (d) the effect of different life stages of Dysdercus on seed viability. In continuous habitat, 100% of the trees presented fruits with squirrel predation while only 34% of trees in fragmented habitats presented fruit predation. In continuous forest 27% of the trees contained fruits with the seed predator Dysdercus, while only 2% of the trees in fragmented forest presented Dysdercus. The initial weight of damaged seeds was greater than seeds that were not damaged indicating that seed predators select heavier seeds to feed upon. Frequency of seed germination was affected by different life stages; pre-adults decreased germination significantly more than nymphs and adults. Seed predation significantly increased the time it took for germination to occur. Our study shows that forest fragmentation significantly affects predation patterns of squirrels and cotton-staining bugs. Reduction of natural seed predators in forest fragments may have long-term consequences on forest structure and diversity.     

Ecological and genetic effects on demographic processes: pollination, clonality and seed production in Dithyrea maritima

The relative importance of ecological and genetic factors in regulating the demographic processes of small populations is unknown for most rare plants. Dithyrea maritima (beach spectacle pod; Brassicaceae) is a rare, rhizomatously spreading, and self-incompatible herbaceous perennial endemic to coastal sand dunes of southern California. Low seed production in this species may be caused by insufficient pollinator visits, which may be exacerbated by competition for pollinator visits from non-native plants that have invaded the coastal dunes. I tested this ‘ecological’ hypothesis by removing flowers of Cakile maritima and Carpobrotus spp. from three experimental plots on San Nicolas Island. A second possible limitation on seed set is low diversity of genets within subpopulations, which could lead to scarcity of compatible mates. I tested this ‘genetic’ hypothesis by assigning ramets to clones using isozymes, and by relating clonal diversity within populations to seed set. Removal of non-native plants had no detectable effect on pollination service to D. maritima or on seed set, and seed set was unrelated to natural variation in pollination service among populations within a single year. In contrast, clonal diversity within a 10 m² patch was a strong predictor of seed set. Hence a genetic factor explains spatial variation in seed set on San Nicolas Island. On larger spatial and temporal scales, however, pollination service also affects patterns of seed set: a shift in pollination from flies in 1998 to bees in 1999 probably caused a corresponding increase in seed set across San Nicolas Island, while extremely low seed set at another site (San Miguel Island) is probably caused by a virtual absence of pollinators there.     

Effects of forest fragmentation, anthropogenic edges and fruit colour on the consumption of ornithocoric fruits

We investigated effects of fruit colour (red, black or white), habitat (anthropogenic edges and forest interior) and fragment size on the removal of artificial fruits in semideciduous forests in south-east Brazil. Eight forest fragments ranging from 251 to 36,000 ha were used. We used artificial fruits, which were placed on shrubs between 1 and 2 m in height and checked after 48 and 96 h for peck marks in the fruits. All three variables affected the probability of consumption of our fruit models. Red and black fruits were statistically more pecked than the white fruits. The probability of fruit consumption was lower in the interior than at the edge and less in small than in large fragments. However, the decrease fruit consumption in small compared with large fragments was more accentuated for red and black fruits than for white fruits. Our results show that habitat reduction and edges affect the chances of a fruit being eaten by birds, which may ultimately affect plant fitness in forest fragments.     

Inbreeding and small population size reduce seed set in a threatened and fragmented plant species, Lupinus sulphureus ssp. kincaidii (Fabaceae)

Willamette Valley upland prairie in western Oregon, USA, has been reduced to less than 1% of its original historic range following European settlement in the 1850s. Lupinus sulphureus ssp. kincaidii (Kincaid's lupine), a threatened species and the primary larval host plant of the endangered Icaricia icarioides fenderi (Fender's blue butterfly), was historically a panmictic metapopulation. Habitat fragmentation may be causing many of the Kincaid's lupine colonies to display typical symptoms of inbreeding depression, such as low seed production. Hand outcrosses on bagged inflorescences significantly increased seed set and seed fitness compared to open pollination and within-colony pollen treatments. Natural seed set was positively correlated with an increase in the number of Kincaid's lupine patches, suggesting that population size limits seed set. An increase in fruit set was positively correlated with Kincaid's lupine raceme number, raceme density, and the number of lupine patches, demonstrating that floral display and population size increase pollinator service. Restoration of Kincaid's lupine populations should consider measures that lessen the effects of inbreeding depression, especially in small, isolated populations, for the long-term persistence of the species.     

Outcomes of longterm deciduous forest restoration in southwestern Ontario, Canada

At present, forest cover in southwestern Ontario, Canada, remains at less than 5% due to intensive agricultural and urban land use. Although much of the extant forest is increasingly protected by legislation, remnants continue to be degraded by the spread of non-native plant species, overgrazing, and recreational use. Some parks in the region have adopted management programs aimed at mitigating this degradation. Over the last 35 years, cottages and roads at Point Pelée National Park have been removed and sites either passively restored (i.e. road or cottage eliminated and vegetation allowed to regenerate) or actively restored (i.e. road or cottage eliminated, exotic vegetation removed, and native species planted). In 1994 and 1995, we assessed the effectiveness of restoration by comparing the understorey plant communities in 28 restored sites with those in less disturbed reference sites. There was a significant increase (P<0.0001) in the similarity of understorey plant communities between restored and reference sites as time-since-restoration increased. Soil moisture, canopy cover, distance to continuous forest, and site-shape all significantly affected plant species composition. Former road sites recovered significantly (P<0.05) more rapidly than former cottage sites, and the former lawns of passively restored cottage sites were the slowest to recover. Five years following active restoration, non-native ruderal species continued to dominate restored sites. The observed recovery of understorey plant communities in restored sites is attributed to their proximity to natural vegetation, and its function as a seed source. In some sites, recovery is substantial and, assuming present trajectories of change are maintained, we predict that recovery could occur in many mesic sites within the next 20 years. Restoration activity facilitates forest recovery and would appear to have a valuable function in mitigating ongoing conflicts between conservation and human use in this region.     

Sustainable forest use in Brazilian extractive reserves: Natural regeneration of Brazil nut in exploited populations

The emergence of Brazilian extractive reserves reinforced the notion that sustainable forest use could play a central role in conservation. Brazil nut is considered a model non-timber product for promoting conservation through use. Demographic studies, however, have demonstrated differential impacts of nut harvest on Brazil nut population structure. Comparing three populations with different forest use histories, degrees of road access, and recent levels of nut harvest, we asked: (1) Are they exhibiting regeneration failure? and (2) Are seedling/sapling densities explained by adult Brazil nut structure, fruit fate and/or overall forest structure? We installed four 9-ha plots in each site to census Brazil nut trees ?10 cm dbh, and within each plot, 36 subplots (25 × 25 m each) to quantify regeneration, overall forest structure, and open and closed fruit counts. Approximately 29-55% of fruits was unharvested, and more than 90% of these was opened by scatterhoarding dispersers. Population structure approximated a reverse-J size class distribution, with seedling densities varying from 3.2 to 5.8 individuals ha⁻¹. We conclude that within the current harvest context, regeneration is sufficient for population persistence in our sites, at least over the medium term. The socioeconomics of sustainably managing Brazil nut is the greater challenge, involving interlinked competitive land uses, nut quality, and substantial increases in local income from harvest. Some of these challenges are being addressed in Brazil, Bolivia and Peru, providing hope that this cornerstone extractive species will continue to play a prominent role in the ecological and economic landscape of Amazonia.     

Effects of fragmentation on pollinator assemblage, pollen limitation and seed production of Mediterranean myrtle (Myrtus communis)

Pollinator assemblages may shift as a consequence of the destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats. The scarcity of mates and pollinators can lead plant populations to suffer from pollen limitation and a decrease in reproductive performance within fragmented areas. We studied the shift in pollinator assemblages along with pollen limitation and seed production patterns in the Mediterranean shrub Myrtus communis. Our study included six populations contrasting in patch and population size (Large vs. Small) within a fragmented landscape characterized by ∼1% of potential forest coverage. The breeding system in Myrtus communis was self-compatible, but compared with natural pollination, fruit set increased with pollen addition (quantity limited), and seed set (brood size) increased with outcross pollen addition (quality limited). While the pollinator assemblage in Large patches was taxonomically diverse, it was almost monopolized by honeybees in Small patches, where visitation rates were highest and wild bee species were almost absent. In general, Small populations were less pollen limited for fruit set than Large populations, particularly those that received the highest rates of honeybee visits. However, despite differences in fragmentation and pollinators between Large and Small populations, seed production patterns (brood size and seed mass) were rather similar among them, in agreement with similar pollen limitation levels found for brood size. A higher susceptibility of native pollinators to the presence of honeybee hives was found in Small patches, suggesting that the pollinator assemblage may be severely altered when fragmentation occurs in combination with beekeeping. We discuss its implications and effects on plant reproduction in fragmented areas.     

Cattle affect early post-fire regeneration in a Nothofagus dombeyi-Austrocedrus chilensis mixed forest in northern Patagonia, Argentina

In forest ecosystems where infrequent, severe fires have been an important process in shaping ecosystem structure, understanding the effects of introduced livestock on post-fire recovery of the vegetation is essential for effective forest resource management and preservation. In Nahuel Huapi National Park in northwestern Patagonia, we studied the effects of livestock on the post-fire recovery of a Nothofagus dombeyi-Austrocedrus chilensis forest that was burned in 1999. We experimentally excluded cattle by fencing plots and compared the vegetation characteristics of fenced and unfenced control plots over a 5-year period. Although cattle did not significantly reduce total plant cover or total species richness, they did reduce maximum heights of woody species including the dominant tree species. Chusquea culeou, a tall understory bamboo, can impede establishment and height growth of the dominant tree species. Although C. culeou accounts for the largest percentage of cattle diet, its mean cover and mean maximum height were not strongly affected by cattle. The reduction in the height growth of seedlings of N. dombeyi and Austrocedrus in the unfenced areas implies that presence of cattle in the recently burned areas may contribute to a post-fire transition from tall forest to bamboo-dominated shrubland that is already widespread in this landscape. Thus, these results provide support for the fencing of recently burned Nothofagus and Austrocedrus forests in the national parks for periods long enough to allow the dominant tree species to grow to heights at which they are no longer severely inhibited by cattle browsing.     

Development, fatty acid composition, and storage of drupes and seeds from the endangered pondberry (Lindera melissifolia)

Pondberry (Lindera melissifolia [Walt.] Blume: Lauraceae) is an endangered, dioecious, clonal shrub that grows in bottomland hardwood forests in the southeastern United States. Prior work has emphasized vegetative reproduction associated with the clonal nature of this species. Little has been published about the early morphological and biochemical characteristics of the fruit as they mature. Fruits, drupes originating from the axillary buds, were collected every 30 days after anthesis and examined for seed structure development and fatty acid composition of the fruit and seed. Sixty days after anthesis, fruits had not formed an organized embryo/cotyledon, weighed 0.1 ± 0.001 g, and measured 7.1 ± 0.04 mm × 4.3 ± 0.03 mm. Ninety days after anthesis, a complete seed had formed within the drupe. Of the total drupe weight (average 0.23 ± 0.01 g), the seed comprised 33% of the mass gained from 60 days after anthesis. Overall composition of the seed and pulp lipids changed significantly over the course of development. Myristic, palmitic, steric, oleic, linoleic, and linolenic fatty acids were revealed by the lipid analyses. Lauric acid was not found in any of the early seed lipid samples but it increased in quantity as seed matured to become the dominant fatty acid in this tissue. Conversely, pulp contained only small amounts of lauric acid; its fatty acid profile was dominated by oleic acid. Fully hydrated seeds stored well for 16 months at both 4 °C and −2 °C. Although drying had a deleterious effect on germination when dried seeds were conventionally stored at 4 °C, seeds that had been dried for 24 h to a moisture content of 8.6% were successfully stored in liquid nitrogen.     

Epidemiology and conservation implications of Trichomonas gallinae infection in the endangered Mauritian pink pigeon

Despite increasing recognition of the role of exotic pathogens in species decline, comprehensive studies of wildlife disease epidemiology in threatened species are rare. We investigated the epidemiology of the protozoan parasite Trichomonas gallinae, which causes the avian disease trichomonosis, in the five wild subpopulations of the endangered pink pigeon Columba mayeri in Mauritius. An average of 89% of the entire population was screened for T. gallinae infection every 2 months between September 2002 and April 2004. A total of 426 individual pink pigeons (all >3 months of age) was screened, and 359 (84.3%) of these tested positive for T. gallinae at least once. Average prevalence of T. gallinae infection across all subpopulations and sampling periods was 50.3% but ranged from 19.6% to 82.4%. Trichomonas gallinae infection was significantly different among subpopulations and prevalence gradually decreased over the entire screening period. Infection prevalence also increased with host age. Observed pathogenicity of T. gallinae was low; active trichomonosis signs were recorded in ca. 1.9% of birds which tested positive. However, birds which persistently tested positive for T. gallinae (33.5% of birds screened) were at least 10% less likely to survive 2 yrs post-screening than birds which tested negative at least once in three consecutive periods; a finding which should be considered by wildlife disease investigators if no pathogenic effects are apparent from the results of studies based on a single screening episode. We conclude that T. gallinae is an additional population limiting factor for pink pigeons and our study highlights the importance of screening other endangered columbids for this pathogen.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic controls on the distribution of the critically endangered cress, Ischnocarpus exilis (Brassicaceae)

Ischnocarpus exilis, a critically endangered cress, persists in one small population in a 1m² section of a limestone tower in the South Island, New Zealand. The importance of intrinsic (seed production, dispersal ability and habitat specificity) and extrinsic factors (weed competition) acting to restrict the distribution of this threatened species were investigated with a field experiment, demographic monitoring and soil seed bank analysis. I. exilis is not confined to its present site because of high habitat specificity, but rather is limited by low seed production and limited dispersal as well as by competition with invasive weeds. Conservation management of this critically endangered species should focus on controlling weeds and on establishing new populations in suitable weed-free habitat.     

Biotic effects of climate change in urban environments: The case of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Melbourne, Australia

Urban climates are known to differ from those of the surrounding rural areas, as human activities in cities lead to changes in temperature, humidity and wind regimes. These changes can in turn affect the geographic distribution of species, the behaviour of animals and the phenology of plants. The grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is a large, nomadic bat from eastern Australia that roosts in large colonies known as camps. Historically a warm temperate to tropical species, P. poliocephalus recently established a year-round camp in the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. Using a bioclimatic analysis, we demonstrated that on the basis of long-term data, Melbourne does not fall within the climatic range of other P. poliocephalus camp sites in Australia. Melbourne is drier than other summer camps, and cooler and drier than other winter camps. The city also receives less radiation, in winter and annually, than the other summer and winter camps of P. poliocephalus. However, we found that temperatures in central Melbourne have been increasing since the 1950s, leading to warmer conditions and a reduction in the number of frosts. In addition, artificial watering of parks and gardens in the city may contribute the equivalent of 590 mm (95% CI: 450-720 mm) of extra rainfall per year. It appears that human activities have increased temperatures and effective precipitation in central Melbourne, creating a more suitable climate for camps of the grey-headed flying-fox. As demonstrated by this example, anthropogenic climate change is likely to complicate further the task of conserving biological diversity in urban environments.     

The regeneration status of Fitzroya cupressoides in the cordillera Pelada,Chile

The large conifer, Fitzroya cupressoides (Mol.) Johnston, which is native to southern Chile and Argentina, has been intensively exploited for its valuable wood since European colonization in the 16th century. Today F. cupressoides persists only in relatively small, remote stands and reports of inadequate regeneration have given rise to considerable concern for its survival. A reconnaissance study of virgin stands in the Cordillera Pelada, Chile, indicates that regeneration by both seedling establishment and root suckering is generally adequate to assure local persistence. Regeneration following very light burning is also adequate; however, following intense fires where soil peat burns and bare areas on the sterile, podzolic soils are created, forest re-establishment is exceedingly slow. The presence of regenerating virgin stands of F. cupressoides in the Cordillera Pelada is a strong reason for this area to be set aside for in situ preservation.     

Fruiting failure and limited recruitment in remnant populations of the hawkmoth-pollinated tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis (Rubiaceae)

Plants with highly specialized pollination systems may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of habitat fragmentation. The sub-canopy tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis has deep tubular flowers (c. 90 mm in length) that are specialized for pollination by long-tongued hawkmoths. Existing natural populations of this taxon appear to be confined to two suburban habitat fragments in the city of Durban, South Africa. Breeding system experiments showed that the trees are self-incompatible and thus completely reliant on pollen vectors for sexual reproduction. Hawkmoths were rarely observed to visit flowers, despite intensive monitoring over four seasons from 1997 to 2003. Fruit set as determined from examination of more than 150,000 flowers at the two sites was extremely low (0.04% and 0.07% of flowers), but increased to more than 70% in flowers that were hand-pollinated with pollen from another tree. This >1000-fold increase in the likelihood of fruit production following pollen-supplementation indicates that trees experience severe pollen-limitation of fruit set. Natural fruit set is so low that only a few dozen fruits were recorded in each population during two years of monitoring. This is of concern as O. pyriformis trees are dependent solely on seeds for recruitment. Demographic surveys showed that remaining natural populations have fewer saplings than adult trees and only two seedlings for every adult tree. The long-term viability of reintroduced populations of O. pyriformis is also in doubt, as we observed an almost complete lack of recruitment in a population that was established in a seemingly suitable forest site 20 years ago. Regular hand-pollination and, in some instances, further planting of saplings, may be the only way to safeguard these populations.     

The importance of secondary forest blocks for terrestrial mammals within an Acacia/secondary forest matrix in Sarawak, Malaysia

With the rapid conversion of tropical forests in Asia to plantation forests for timber or biofuel production there is a need to determine if these forests serve any viable role in wildlife conservation. We used infra-red trip cameras to survey for large terrestrial mammals within an Acacia/secondary forest matrix being created for pulpwood production in Sarawak, Malaysia. We detected at least 27 species of mammals within the matrix and 18 species were detected in both Acacia and secondary forest. Using occupancy modeling to determine important covariates for seven mammal species within the project area, six of these species were sensitive to forest type, and most were sensitive to the amount of secondary forest within 1 km of the sample point. For four species (sun bear, Helarctos melayanus; common porcupine, Hystrix brachyura; mousedeer, Tragulus spp.; and pig-tailed macaque, Macaca nemestrina), the mean distance of detection from large secondary forest blocks was significantly closer than expected from the distribution of sample points. Most species used Acacia forest less frequently than secondary forest, possibly for transit or foraging, with the exception of bearded pigs (Sus barbatus), sambar (Rucervus unicolor), and civets which were more common in Acacia stands. The amount of secondary forest preserved within forest plantations seems to be the best measure of conservation potential for these industrial forests. Forest plantations can provide a conservation value if managed properly and those retaining significant amounts of secondary forest should be eligible for a base level of certification as they comprise a significant portion of the landscape in this region.     

Is the collection of Aloe peglerae from the wild sustainable? An evaluation using stochastic population modelling

Aloe peglerae Schönland, an Endangered species endemic to South Africa, is threatened mainly by illegal collection. Lower densities of plants in areas easily accessible to the public led to questions concerning the sensitivity of this species to collection. Demographic monitoring data collected between 1976 and 1995 were used to build a stochastic population model, where parameters were allowed to vary randomly between observed minimum and maximum values. The model indicated that A. peglerae is highly sensitive to harvest of adult plants, with use sustainable at only very low levels of not more than 0.12%. Harvesting one plant annually is only sustainable in large populations of more than 1000 individuals; populations of this size, however, are rare. A maximum of fifteen percent of the annual seed output can be harvested sustainably. This long-term evaluation demonstrates that current collection of this species from the wild is unsustainable. Ex situ cultivation is therefore vital.     

The effects of fire and predators on the long-term persistence of an endangered shrub, Grevillea caleyi

Grevillea caleyi is an endangered plant species with a restricted range lying partly within Ku-ring-gai Chase and Garigal National Parks in NSW, Australia. The principle threatening processes affecting G. caleyi are habitat destruction and adverse fire regimes combined with high levels of seed predation. A stochastic, spatially explicit, individual-based model was constructed to investigate the population dynamics of small populations of the species and to determine the impact of a variety of management strategies. Results of model simulations indicate there is a high risk of population decline and local extinction in remnant sites with small populations under current management regimes. The most effective fire management strategy is to schedule fires that burn 20-100% of sub-populations every 5-15 years, in combination with reduced predation rates. When predation management strategies are employed in conjunction with a structured fire regime, then a 20-30% reduction in predation rates can improve the chance of long-term persistence substantially.