Three decades of deforestation in southwest Sumatra: Have protected areas halted forest loss and logging, and promoted re-growth?

Much of the forest cover in southern Sumatra, Indonesia has been cleared since the early 1970s, but accurate estimates of the scales and rates of loss are lacking. This study combined high-quality remote sensing applications and extensive field surveys, both to provide an accurate picture of deforestation patterns across an area of 1.17 million ha in southwest Sumatra and to assess whether southwest Sumatra’s Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park (BBSNP) has halted forest loss and logging, and promoted re-growth, since its creation in 1984. Of the single large (692,850 ha) contiguous area of forest standing across our study area in 1972, nearly half (344,409 ha) has been cleared from 1972 to 2002, at an average rate per original forest cover of 1.69% y⁻¹. In Gunung Raya Wildlife Sanctuary (GRWS) and Hydrological Reserves (HR), forests have shrunk by 28,696 ha and 113,105 ha, at an average rate of 2.74% y⁻¹ and 2.13% y⁻¹, respectively. In contrast, forests in BBSNP have reduced four times more slowly than those in GRWS and HR, and have shrunk by 57,344 ha, at an average rate of 0.64% y⁻¹. Nevertheless, the forests within BBSNP were cleared almost as rapidly during the post-establishment, as during the pre-establishment, period (0.65% y⁻¹ and 0.63% y⁻¹, respectively) despite the introduction of protection measures during the post-establishment period, following the government’s pledge to expand and protect Indonesia’s network of Protected Areas (PAs) at the 1982 Bali World Parks Congress. While these protection measures failed to slow down rates of forest loss caused by agricultural encroachments they reduced large-scale mechanised logging by a factor of 4.2 and stabilized some 8610 ha of agricultural encroachments, enabling forest re-growth.     

Three decades of deforestation in southwest Sumatra: Effects of coffee prices, law enforcement and rural poverty

In situ conservation of tropical forests often requires restricting human use and occupancy within protected areas by enforcing regulations. However, law enforcement interventions that seek to prevent deforestation rarely have been evaluated. Conservationists increasingly recognize the need to measure the effectiveness of their interventions, using an indicator of biodiversity change, such as rate of deforestation, and a counterfactual approach that addresses a fundamental question: what would have happened had there been no intervention? This study examines how law enforcement can mitigate habitat loss from small-holder coffee growing by comparing 34 years of empirical data on deforestation rates and coffee prices across a zone of high law enforcement and a zone of low law enforcement using satellite imagery, ecological data, interviews, and GIS modeling.In the early 1980s strong law enforcement efforts were found to reduce deforestation inside Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park (BBSNP), southwest Sumatra. However, law enforcement efforts were weak in remote areas of BBSNP, where high coffee prices spurred rapid deforestation. Furthermore, law enforcement efforts were reversed by the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis, the fall of the national president, and by new regulations surrounding regional autonomy. These findings indicate that law enforcement is critical but insufficient alone. They also highlight that rising costs of agricultural commodities can be detrimental to tropical forests and their associated biodiversity. In the long run one must act to decrease the incentives for coffee cultivation. A multi-faceted strategy that includes law enforcement and incentives to reduce poverty around PAs is proposed.     

Regional population viability of grassland songbirds: Effects of agricultural management

Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management.     

Comparative use of vendace by humans and Saimaa ringed seal in Lake Pihlajavesi, Finland

The Saimaa ringed seal, Phoca hispida saimensis, is one of the most endangered ringed seals in the world. Its total population consisted of 240 adult seals in the Saimaa lake complex in 2000. We estimated the amount of vendace, Coregonus albula, consumed by the seals and compared it with fishermen’s vendace catches and our vendace stock estimates in Lake Pihlajavesi, Finland. Our study area was the habitat of 43 mature seals and 17 immature seals as well as 12 pups in 2001. Five commercial two-boat trawlers fished in the area. Vendace stock size was estimated at 660 tonnes i.e., 12 kg ha⁻¹ in the study area in August-September 2001. The vendace catch by fishermen was approximately 250 tonnes, and the vendace consumption by the Saimaa ringed seal was estimated at 68 tonnes in 2001. We estimated that during the whole year seals ate approximately 8% of the vendace spawning stock biomass in the area while fishermen caught 30% of it. The seals and the fishermen together used less than 10% of the available vendace biomass in each month. Fishing pressure on the vendace stock was highest in August-October. The amount of vendace eaten by the seals exceeded the vendace catch in fisheries only in December-April. In periods of low vendace density, the seals can consume a higher proportion of the stock and reduce the catch per unit of effort in fisheries. However, our assumption that seals fed only on vendace should be considered as an extreme scenario when considering the conflict between fisheries and the seal.     

Comparing population growth rates using weighted bootstrapping: Guiding the conservation management of Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby)

In this study we compare estimates of the long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r] for Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby), a threatened Australian species. In fluctuating environments such as semi-arid areas, herbivore populations respond directly to changes in the biomass of food resources. Biomass is generally correlated with rainfall, so it is often useful to model annual population growth rates of herbivores directly with rainfall. Models of this nature are referred to as numerical response models. The factors that are thought to threaten this species include competition from introduced herbivores and predation from foxes. Annual aerial survey data collected from 1997 to 2004 over approximately 600 km of transect line were analyzed in seven zones within South Australia. Using the Ivlev numerical response model, the annual population growth rates were found to correlate best with the rain that fell in the seven-month period immediately prior to the surveys. Not surprisingly, positive growth rates were found to be associated with higher rainfalls in this period, while negative growth rates were associated with lower rainfalls. We also used weighted bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals around our estimates of long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r]. The findings suggest that the estimates of E[r] are positive in areas where there is fox and herbivore management. However, we found no evidence that this species will decline in the absence of these treatments.     

Demography of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at Uda Walawe National Park, Sri Lanka based on identified individuals

We provide estimates of population size and other demographic variables for individually-identified Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Uda Walawe National Park (UWNP), Sri Lanka based on systematic year-round observations. Two hundred and eighty-six adult females and 241 adult males were identified, of which four adults (2% of males) had tusks. Sightings-based demographic models showed seasonal immigration and emigration from the study area. The total population, including non-adults, was between 804 and 1160 individuals. Density ranged from 102 to 116 adult females per 100 km² and remains at this level throughout the year. This large, un-fragmented population of Asian elephants should be of high conservation priority. We find that estimates of survivorship and migration rates should be based on long sampling intervals when possible, but estimates of density and population size can still be made when observations are constrained to shorter intervals, if spatial data are available. We offer suggestions to guide census design for other elephant populations or cryptic species. We urge that other locations be systematically surveyed as well using photographic identification.     

Aerial surveying of the world’s largest leatherback turtle rookery: A more effective methodology for large-scale monitoring

For many marine megavertebrate species it is challenging to derive population estimates and knowledge on habitat use needed to inform conservation planning. For marine turtles, the logistics required to undertake comprehensive ground-based censuses, across wide spatial and temporal scales, are often insurmountable. This frequently leads to an approach where a limited number of index nesting beaches are monitored in great detail by foot. In this study we use nationwide aerial surveying interfaced with ground assessments across three seasons of leatherback turtle nesting in Gabon (Equatorial West Africa), highlighting the importance of a synoptic approach to marine turtle monitoring. These surveys allow the first complete population assessment of this nesting aggregation to be made, identifying it as the world’s largest for the species (36,185-126,480 clutches, approximating to 5865-20,499 breeding females per annum and a total estimate of 15,730 to 41,373 breeding females). Our approach also serendipitously provides insights into the spatial appropriateness of Gabon’s protected areas network, for example (mean ± 1SD) 79 ± 6% (range 67-86%) of leatherback turtle activities recorded during aerial surveys (n = 8) occurred within protected areas (345 km, 58%, of surveyed coastline). We identify and discuss sources of potential error in estimating total nesting effort from aerial surveying techniques and show that interannual variation in nesting is considerable, which has implications for the detection of statistically significant changes in population size. Despite its relative costliness per day, aerial surveying can play an important role in providing estimates of relative population abundance of large vertebrates dispersed over extensive areas. Furthermore, it can provide data on habitat use and deliver real-time information on the spatial efficacy of protected area networks.     

Geographic isolation, genetic divergence, and ecological non-exchangeability define ESUs in a threatened sky-island rattlesnake

We utilized nine microsatellite loci and 865 bases from two mtDNA genes to estimate demographic parameters and visualize historic/contemporary connectivity among populations of a sky-island rattlesnake (New Mexico ridge-nosed rattlesnake, Crotalus willardi obscurus). This taxon is listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) and is distributed patchily within three borderland mountain ranges [Animas (ANM), Peloncillo (PEL), Sierra San Luis (SSL)] of southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico and north-central México. Molecular data support a hypothesis of northward range expansion from México, with subsequent isolation on sky-islands through vicariant desertification that transformed intervening wooded valleys and low elevation passes into inhospitable habitat. Historic and recent movements have been within rather than among mountains. Although populations are linked via ancestral polymorphism, they do not represent a single mtDNA gene pool. All are genetically bottlenecked, with the Peloncillo reflecting deepest/sharpest declines and fewest captures per unit effort. Most recent population declines occurred ∼4 kybp (thousands of years before present). Thus, population reductions are historic and environmental rather than contemporary and anthropogenic. Our data demonstrate that PEL is ecologically non-exchangable with other sky-island populations, and thus comprises one ‘evolutionary significant unit’ (ESU), while SSL and ANM comprise ‘management units’ (MUs) within a second ESU. All three meet legal criteria for recognition as ‘distinct population segments’ (DPS) under the ESA.     

Persistence of Gunnison’s prairie dog colonies in Arizona, USA

Although the five species of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) are recognized as important components of grassland ecosystems in western North America, they have experienced major population declines due to poisoning, outbreaks of sylvatic plague, recreational shooting, and habitat conversion. From May 2000 to October 2001, we investigated 270 colonies of Gunnison’s prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni) in Arizona. Because these colonies were classified as active in previous surveys (1987, 1990-1994, 1998), we were able to examine their persistence. Most (70%) of the colonies became inactive between the initial and recent surveys, with colony extinctions spanning our study area. Colony persistence was positively associated with the persistence of the nearest neighboring colony but was not associated with major vegetation type, distance to nearest neighboring colony, or initial size of the colony. The amount of area occupied by individual colonies varied between surveys, sometimes dramatically. We found little evidence that the reduction in active colonies was due to poisoning, recreational shooting, or habitat conversion. Rather, direct and indirect evidence suggest plague is the primary factor negatively impacting Gunnison’s prairie dog populations in Arizona. Currently, there is no way to control or prevent plague outbreaks in Gunnison’s prairie dog populations. To mitigate the effects of localized plague outbreaks on the overall population of this species, we suggest that Gunnison’s prairie dog be reintroduced to public lands throughout its historical range.     

Monitoring rare or elusive large mammals using effort-corrected voluntary observers

Populations of rare or elusive large mammals are difficult to monitor, because they usually are secretive, solitary, occur at low densities, and have large home ranges. The global trend of generally decreasing large carnivore populations necessitates new, feasible, reliable, and cost-effective monitoring methods. We evaluate an index method developed for monitoring populations of moose (Alces alces) based on voluntarily and systematically collected observations from hunters, corrected for effort, for use in monitoring populations of large carnivores in Sweden. For our evaluation, we used independent estimates of minimum brown bear (Ursus arctos) densities from DNA-based scat surveys and brown bear distribution from mandatory reports from successful bear hunters. We verified that the index correctly reflected bear distribution. We also found strong linear relationships between the indices and the independent density estimates for bears at the scale of local management units (about 1000-2000 km²) in all three regional study areas (adjusted R² = 0.88-0.60). Our results suggest that systematic, effort-corrected reports of observed animals can be an alternative and accurate monitoring method for the conservation and management of large mammals occurring over large areas when large numbers of willing volunteers are available (effort >30,000 h).     

The conservation status of the spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata

The spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata is listed as critically endangered due to its small population size and ongoing mortality on long-lines. Spectacled petrels were counted in 2004, repeating a census made in 1999 at their sole breeding locality, Inaccessible Island. The 2004 survey took place earlier in the breeding season than the previous count, allowing for more robust estimates of burrow occupancy. During early incubation, birds responded to call playback at 69% of burrow entrances, but birds in at least 8% of burrows remained silent. Birds in shallow burrows were less likely to respond to playback than were those in deep burrows. Two repeat trials at 100 marked nests showed that at least 61% of apparently ‘unoccupied’ burrows were occupied on subsequent checks, resulting in an overall occupancy estimate of 91%. Occupancy was equally high in peripheral colonies. The apparent spatial extent of colonies increased slightly from 1999, and the estimate of total burrow numbers increased by 50%, from 5900 burrows in 1999 to 8900 in 2004. Validation surveys indicated that burrow numbers were underestimated (84 ± 3%) to the same extent as that in 1999 (85 ± 4%), and repeat checks of one colony where all nests were marked showed that even careful counts underestimated actual numbers of burrows by up to 10%. This suggests there are some 11-12,000 burrows, and assuming 90% occupancy, the adult population is likely to be at least 20,000 birds. The population has increased over the last five years, continuing the apparent recovery from a very small population size in the early 20th century. Despite this increase, demographic models indicate that the population remains at risk from relatively small increases in mortality, if mortality is determined primarily by fishing effort. Mitigation of long-line mortality remains the key conservation goal for this species.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.     

MtDNA genetic diversity and population history of a dwindling raptorial bird, the red kite (Milvus milvus)

The red kite (Milvus milvus) occurs in a relatively small area in the southwestern Palearctic region, with population strongholds in Central Europe. Following strong human persecutions at the beginning of the 20th century, populations have receded, particularly in peripheral areas and islands. In order to describe and compare levels of genetic diversity and phylogeographic patterns throughout its entire distribution in Europe, sequence variation of a 357 bps part of the mitochondrial DNA control region was assessed in eight populations and 105 individuals. Overall, results indicate that population declines have affected red kite mtDNA variation. We found low levels of genetic diversity (values of nucleotide diversity ranging from 0 in Majorca island to 0.0062 in Central Europe), with only 10 distinct haplotypes, separated by low levels of genetic divergence (mean sequence divergence = 0.75%). Highest haplotype and nucleotide diversities match with demographic expectations, and were found in Central European and Central Spanish samples, where present strongholds occur, and lowest values in the declining southern Spanish and insular samples. Φst estimates indicated moderate gene flow between populations. Phylogeographic patterns and mismatch distributions analyses suggest central European regions may have been colonized from southern glacial refugia (in the Italian or Iberian peninsulas). Interspecific phylogenetic comparisons and divergence date estimates indicated the genetic split between the red kite and its closely related species, the black kite (Milvus migrans), might be relatively recent. The low level of genetic variation found in the red kite mitochondrial control region, compared to the black kite, is likely the result of relatively recent divergence (associated with founder events), successive bottlenecks and small population sizes. As there are several ongoing projects aimed at reinforcing populations in countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy or Spain, our results may prove useful for the genetic management of the species.     

A functional hypothesis of the threat of local extirpation of woody plant species by elephant in Africa

An hypothesis predicting which woody species selected by elephant are at risk of local extirpation is based on an understanding of elephant digestive physiology, foraging ecology, attributes of individual plants and populations, and historical changes in ecosystems. Elephant select items rich in cell solubles relative to availability for achieving maximum throughput per unit time on account of their large energy requirement, hindgut fermentation with limited cell wall digestion, high passage rate, and inefficient recycling of microbial protein. Accordingly, diet is predominantly green grass and herbs in the wet season, green browse in the late wet and dry seasons, and bark and roots following leaf fall. Increased consumption of woody material indicates nutritional stress. Bulls graze more than cows and impact woody plants more when grazing deteriorates.Species vulnerable to extirpation by elephant are those: whose attributes predispose adults to pollarding, uprooting or ringbarking; adults coppice poorly, hence mortality occurs; mortality is not compensated by regeneration and recruitment owing to the impact of elephant and other agents; species have a restricted distribution; and poor dispersal ability constrains recolonisation. Threat of their local extirpation has increased because of an increased probability of encounter with elephant attributed to artificial boundaries that have constrained movement, and proliferation of water points that has reduced spatial refuges for plants and weakened density-dependent regulation of elephant populations. Degradation of grasslands, wetlands and riparian areas has forced elephant to subsist on woody vegetation for a longer period of the annual cycle. A reduction in water points should increase local elephant density and attendant density-dependent effects of increased foraging distance, nutritional stress, calf and juvenile mortality, and predation, and reduce reproduction. Eliminating human predation after 4000 years in some parks has contributed to the problem. Mitigation of the threat of local extirpation should concentrate on configuration of boundaries, water provision, simulated predation, minimum reserve size, and not pursue non-definable notions of elephant carrying capacity.     

Sex-specific roost movements and population dynamics of the vulnerable long-fingered bat, Myotis capaccinii

The roosts of many IUCN-listed cave-roosting bat species are under threat from tourist development in SE Europe and other regions of the world. Much-needed conservation strategies require, among other information, an understanding of their roost movements and population dynamics, which can now be obtained relatively quickly using advanced models. We have studied the long-fingered bat, Myotis capaccinii, an obligate cave-dweller, in Dadia National Park, Greece. The species formed colonies of up to a few thousand individuals and was highly mobile, frequently switching summer roosts up to 39 km apart, even during late pregnancy. The bats migrated to distant hibernacula including a cave in Bulgaria 140 km NW of the Park. Adult recapture probabilities varied with season and sex: low female recapture rates in autumn, relative to spring and summer, indicated non-random temporary emigration following nursery colony dispersal. The opposite pattern was seen in males: increasing recapture rates in the autumn suggest that males gather in these roosts to mate with females in transit. Adult survival (0.86-0.94) was similar in females and males, similar in winter and summer, and comparable to recent estimates for other bats based on similar modelling techniques. Sex-based differences in juvenile recapture suggest female philopatry and male-biased dispersal. Our work shows that protection of M. capaccinii roosts must extend beyond the Park’s and indeed the country’s boundaries: its conservation requires large-scale, trans-national integrated conservation plans. Our results will apply to many other warm-temperate species with similar life history cycles.     

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.     

Estimating the density of a jaguar population in the Brazilian Pantanal using camera-traps and capture-recapture sampling in combination with GPS radio-telemetry

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest feline in the Americas and third largest world-wide, smaller in size only to the tiger (P. tigris) and lion (P. leo). Yet, in comparison, relatively few studies on jaguar population densities have been conducted and baseline data for management purposes are needed. Camera trapping and capture-recapture sampling methods were used to estimate the size of a jaguar population in the Pantanal’s open wet grassland habitat, an important area for the long-term survival of the species. This study is the first jaguar population estimate conducted in co-operation with a GPS-telemetry study providing an important opportunity for comparing different methods of density estimation. An accessible area within a 460 km² privately-owned ranch was sampled with equal effort during the dry seasons of 2003 and 2004. Thirty-one and twenty-five individual jaguars were identified in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Estimates of jaguar abundance were generated by program CAPTURE. Density estimates were produced according to different methods used to calculate the effectively sampled areas which ranged from 274 to 568 km². For 2003, the currently-used mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) method produced a density of 10.3 jaguars/100 km², while GPS-telemetry-based calculations produced a mean density of 6.6 jaguars/100 km². For 2004, the MMDM method produced an estimate of 11.7 jaguars/100 km² while GPS-telemetry calculations produced a density of 6.7 jaguars/100 km². Our results suggest that the widely-used MMDM method used to calculate effectively sampled areas is significantly under-reflecting maximum distances moved by jaguars and their range-use and, thereby, considerably inflating cat density estimates. This overestimation could place a population in a difficult situation by lengthening the time taken to initiate protection measures because of underestimating the risk to that population.     

Abundance and conservation status of the Yangtze finless porpoise in the Yangtze River, China

The Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis) is endemic to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China. It is the only freshwater population of porpoises in the world and is currently listed as Endangered by IUCN. In November and December 2006 we used two boats and line transect methods to survey the entire current range of the population, except for two lakes (Poyang and Dongting). Sighting results were similar for both boats, so we pooled all data and analyzed them using two line transect models and a strip transect model. All models produced similar estimates of abundance (1111, 1225 and 1000). We then added independent estimates of the number of porpoises from the two lakes for a total estimate of approximately 1800 porpoises. Our findings indicate that the population continues to decline and that its distribution is becoming more fragmented. Our current estimate in the main river is slightly less than half the estimate from surveys between 1984 and 1991 (which was probably an underestimate). We also found an apparent gap in the distribution of porpoises between Yueyang and Shishou (∼150 km), where sightings had previously been common. Continued threats to Yangtze finless porpoises include bycatch in unregulated and unselective fishing, habitat degradation through dredging, pollution and noise, vessel strikes and water development. Immediate protective measures are urgently needed to ensure the persistence of finless porpoises in the Yangtze River. The survey design and analytical methods developed in this study might be appropriate for surveys of cetaceans in other river systems.     

Management intervention affects river-bound spatial dynamics of elephants

The potential consequences of growing elephant populations are a cause of debate and concern in many African conservation areas. Even though space use of elephants is central to understanding their biodiversity consequences, few studies explicitly consider how different management strategies influence elephants’ spatial utilization of landscapes. Here we study elephant’s spatial dispersion patterns in relation to different sized rivers under different management regimes by analyzing aerial census data collected annually during the mid dry-season between 1985 and 2007 across the 19,485 km² Kruger National Park. We found that different sized rivers can be used as a simple proxy for elephant density gradients in the dry-season. This has implications for stratifying and designing elephant impact monitoring programmes in semi-arid savannas. Furthermore, we found that dry-season elephant densities increased around rivers in a period after culling was stopped and large-scale artificial water provision reduced. Most importantly, these localized density increases were not spatially homogeneous, with culling and water provision having a greater suppressing effect on the localized densities around larger rivers than around smaller rivers and areas far removed from rivers. Assuming a positive correlation between elephant density and elephant impact, the impact of elephants around larger rivers has increased disproportionably compared to areas around smaller rivers and areas far removed from rivers since management stopped culling and reduced large-scale water provision. Since areas around the larger rivers have unique functional, structural and compositional characteristics, they should receive specific attention in impact monitoring programmes and elephant management policies. Furthermore, we recommend that if artificial waterholes are provided in semi-arid systems, it should not be located close to rivers that are mostly dry nor in areas far from rivers as this may compromise the spatio-temporal refugia that these areas afford aspects of biodiversity that are sensitive to continuous elephant impact.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.