Comparing the potential effectiveness of conservation planning approaches in central North Carolina, USA

We compared four approaches to conservation site selection to protect forest biodiversity in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA. Using biological inventory data and an inventory-based conservation plan as benchmarks, we evaluated the potential effectiveness of a focal species plan and three “simple” plans (large forested patches, close to wetlands and riparian areas, diverse forest types). Effectiveness was measured in three ways: the number of inventory elements captured at least once by the plan (representation), the total number of inventory elements captured (completeness), and the proportion of land in the inventory-based plan included (overlap). We further examined the potential effectiveness of the simple plans by calculating their overlap with land identified by the focal species approach. The simple and focal species plans did not differ markedly in terms of representation, but diverged when completeness and overlap were considered. Although representation rates for all four plans were relatively high, lower rates for completeness and overlap raise concerns about long-term viability. The simple plans did not identify the same lands as the focal species plan, and are thus unlikely to provide appropriate habitat for the focal species. Each approach we tested failed to capture some subset of species and communities, highlighting the importance of explicit conservation targets and consideration of ecological processes. Forced to act quickly and with little data, our findings suggest using initially a set of complementary simple plans, each focused on a different habitat type. This should be considered a stopgap measure, however, while more sophisticated plans are constructed, defining explicit conservation targets and considering ecological processes.     

The impact of data realities on conservation planning

Conservation planning decisions are typically made on the basis of species distribution or occurrence data, which ideally would have complete spatial and taxonomic coverage. Agencies are constrained in the data they can collect, often pragmatically prioritising certain groups such as threatened species, or methods, such as volunteer surveys. This mismatch between goals and realities inevitably leads to bias and uncertainty in conservation planning outputs, yet few studies have assessed how data realities affect planning outputs. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the Protection Index, a method for assessing conservation progress and priorities, using an extensive dataset on species occurrences and distributions derived from the Florida Natural Areas Inventory. Analyses revealed a high proportion of occurrence records for threatened species and certain taxonomic groups, reflecting the agencies’ priorities. We performed a sensitivity analysis on conservation planning outputs, simulating a ‘data poor’ scenario typical of many real situations; we deleted increasing amounts of data in both a biased (exaggerating patterns observed) and unbiased (random) manner. We assessed the effects of data paucity and bias on the value of potential conservation sites, and planning priorities. Certain high value sites with only a few important species occurrences were more sensitive to data depletion than those with many occurrences. Data bias based on taxonomic bias was more influential to site value than threat rank. To maximise benefit from surveys from a planning perspective, it would be better to focus on poorly surveyed areas rather than adding occurrences in already well represented sites. This study demonstrates the importance of sensitivity analysis in conservation planning, and that the effects of uncertainty and data quality on planning decisions should not be ignored.     

A probability-based approach to match species with reserves when data are at different resolutions

Gap analysis is a protocol for assessing the extent to which valued biodiversity attributes are represented within protected areas. Such analysis involves overlaying the distribution of biodiversity features (e.g. species) with protected areas, but the protocol entails arbitrary assumptions that affect the outcome of the assessments. In particular, since species’ distributions are usually mapped at a coarser resolution than protected areas, rules have to be defined to match the two data layers. Typically, a grid cell is considered protected if a given proportion is covered by protected areas. Because the effectiveness of protected areas is dependent on the definition of such arbitrary proportions (i.e., thresholds), errors of commission and omission in the level of species’ representation are bound to exist. We propose an alternative approach whereby the contribution of a cell for the representation of species is defined as the expected value of a hyper-geometric random variable. We compare the conventional approach based on fixed thresholds with this new probability-based approach for both static and dynamic conservation scenarios, using a virtual dataset and a 100-plant-species’ dataset for Iberian Peninsula. Results support the view that traditional fixed thresholds yield inconsistent results. Because species present different distributional patterns coinciding differently with protected areas, species-specific and time-specific thresholds should be used. Our approach enables to easily obtain these more adequate threshold values, thus offering a promising method for gap analyses. Future studies should seek to evaluate the performance of this method empirically in different conservation planning contexts.     

Regional climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in a midcontinental region of North America

Scenario planning should be an effective tool for developing responses to climate change but will depend on ecological assessments of broad enough scope to support decision-making. Using climate projections from an ensemble of 16 models, we conducted an assessment of a midcontinental area of North America (Minnesota) based on a resistance, resilience, and facilitation framework. We assessed likely impacts and proposed options for eight landscape regions within the planning area. Climate change projections suggest that by 2069, average annual temperatures will increase 3 °C with a slight increase in precipitation (6%). Analogous climate locales currently prevail 400–500 km SSW. Although the effects of climate change may be resisted through intensive management of invasive species, herbivores, and disturbance regimes, conservation practices need to shift to facilitation and resilience. Key resilience actions include providing buffers for small reserves, expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity, prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges, and managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands. Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants), enlarge seed zones, and include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low-risk facilitation strategy. Monitoring “trailing edge” populations of rare species should be a high conservation priority to support decision-making related to assisted colonization. Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world.     

The effects of including marine ecological values in terrestrial reserve planning for a forest-nesting seabird

Theoretical advances in systematic reserve design aim to promote the efficient use of limited conservation resources and to increase the likelihood that reserve networks enhance the persistence of valued species and ecosystems. However, these methods have rarely been applied to species that rely on spatially disjunct habitats. We used the marbled murrelet, a seabird that requires old-growth forest in which to nest and high quality marine habitats in which to forage, as a case study to explore methods of incorporating multiple ecological values into single species spatial reserve design. Specifically, we used the cost function in MARXAN to include the ecological value of marine habitats while identifying spatial solutions for terrestrial nesting habitat reserves. Including marine values influenced terrestrial reserve designs most when terrestrial habitat targets were low and little or none of the target was represented in pre-existing protected areas. Our results suggest that including marine values in the planning process will influence marbled murrelet terrestrial reserve designs most where substantial terrestrial nesting habitat still exists, where new reserves are relatively unconstrained by pre-existing reserves, or when conservation resources only allow the protection of a small fraction of available habitat. This paper presents a novel framework for incorporating multiple measures of ecological value in the spatial reserve design process and should be particularly useful for species that rely on multiple habitats during their life cycle.     

The time horizon and its role in multiple species conservation planning

Survival probability within a certain time horizon T is a common measure of population viability. The choice of T implicitly involves a time preference, similar to economic discounting: conservation success is evaluated at the time horizon T, while all effects that occur later than T are not considered. Despite the obvious relevance of the time horizon, ecological studies seldom analyze its impact on the evaluation of conservation options. In this paper, we show that, while the choice of T does not change the ranking of conservation options for single species under stationary conditions, it may substantially change conservation decisions for multiple species. We conclude that it is of crucial importance to investigate the sensitivity of model results to the choice of the time horizon or other measures of time preference when prioritizing biodiversity conservation efforts.     

Shortcuts for marine conservation planning: The effectiveness of socioeconomic data surrogates

Marine protected area (MPA) networks designed without consideration of the interests of local communities are likely to fail. However, in many regions where conservation action is needed most urgently, socioeconomic data are not available at spatial scales relevant to conservation planning. In the Philippines, the primary stakeholders relevant to conservation efforts in coastal waters are small-scale fishers. Unlike commercial fisheries, no logbook data are kept to record fishers’ spatial effort and usage patterns. We investigated the effects of including different surrogates for small-scale fishing effort in the systematic design of an MPA network for Siquijor Province. We compared a reserve selection scenario in which socioeconomic data were not considered with four different surrogates for fishing effort and with empirical data on the spatial distribution of fishing effort collected through interviews. We assumed that minimising opportunity costs to fishers would increase the likelihood that they would support and comply with MPA implementation, resulting in more effective conservation. Surrogates modelled on the number of fishers or boats in each community consistently outperformed those based on population census data. However, none of the surrogates we tested were able to accurately predict fine-scale resource use patterns. Whilst socioeconomic surrogates may be able to assist conservation planners to identify regional-scale opportunities where conservation objectives may be met more easily, they cannot act as a shortcut for comprehensive consultation with communities, which will be required to identify actual sites for MPA implementation.     

Patch connectivity and genetic diversity conservation in the federally endangered and narrowly endemic plant species Astragalus albens (Fabaceae)

To evaluate the sufficiency of US federal critical habitat designations and a proposed conservation plan in promoting the long-term persistence of the endangered plant Astragalus albens, patterns of genetic diversity and landscape connectivity were examined. A. albens harbors substantial genetic variation and shows no evidence of historic bottlenecks, suggesting little risk of extinction due to genetic homogeneity (A = 2.40; P = 0.50) or inbreeding (f = −0.08) within occurrences. Low genetic differentiation among occurrences (θ_p = 0.01) indicates relatively high gene flow or little genetic drift. The 91 patches of A. albens were connected into a single network at a distance of 2100 m; 94% of patches were <1000 m from at least one other patch. Managing ecological conditions that maintain large population sizes and connectivity among populations throughout the species’ ecological and geographic ranges will most likely conserve existing diversity. Both reserve networks partially accomplish these goals by including most extant occurrences and >89% of the aerial extent of the species, including the largest populations, and capturing all detected alleles. However, both conservation networks fail to conserve occurrences from one portion of the species’ range, possibly speeding loss of unique local adaptations. In addition, connectivity of the whole network is reduced with the 65 patches designated as critical habitat being connected at a distance of 6200 m and the proposed reserve sites being connected at a distance of 9500 m. Although total network connectivity would be reduced, connectivity at scales most relevant to gene flow (e.g., <1000 m) remains sufficiently in tact to provide a relatively promising outlook for species persistence.     

Major current and future gaps of Brazilian reserves to protect Neotropical savanna birds

We tested the prediction that climate-driven changes might alter bird species composition in reserves of the Cerrado region of Brazil. First, we modelled the current distributions and the potential future projections of 38 endemic or rare bird species. We used eight modelling techniques within the BIOMOD computational framework in an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach a consensus scenario. Then we compared current and future (2046-2060) distributions under different scenarios (reserve size and bird dispersal) with the current Brazilian reserve system to assess the adequacy of protection (representation) of each species and detect gaps in their protection. Finally, to identify areas with high probability of occurrence of several species, we calculated cumulative climatic suitability of all 38 species for both current and future scenarios. None of the 38 species is covered under any current or future scenarios, revealing that the current reserve system is highly inefficient in conserving the analyzed bird species. The implementation of new reserves to cover species in current and future climate scenarios is recommended in areas in the south-eastern part of the Cerrado region and in the mountains of east Brazil. Due to the already high land use of the southeast region of the Cerrado, the application of non-traditional conservation measures should be evaluated.     

Using occupancy models of forest breeding birds to prioritize conservation planning

As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning.     

Diadromous fish conservation plans need to consider global warming issues: An approach using biogeographical models

Most of the European diadromous fish species are endangered and listed in the habitats fauna and flora directive, the bern convention and the IUCN Red List. Current conservation plans do not address global warming issues and consider the 1900 distribution range as the reference without taking into account the potential re-distribution of these species under global warming. However, for other taxa, predictive models have been used successfully to relate conservation assessment with the impact of global warming. We investigated the distribution of the various diadromous species regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East at the beginning of the 20th century. For each species, we related the observed distribution to a set of environmental variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. We successfully built twenty-one accurate species-specific models out of twenty-eight during both the calibration and the validation phases. Longitude, a factor we interpret as related to biogeographical history, was selected in all models and temperature was included in fifteen models, in six it was the most explanatory variable. These models allowed us to separate the roles of ecology and history in explaining distribution patterns at species level. Historical events such as glaciations constrained the continental distribution of all diadromous species and six of these were also highly temperature-dependent. Based on these results, we claim that these models can be used to predict the potential distribution under changing climatic conditions and provide two relevant examples (i.e. for Alosa alosa and Pe tromyzon marinus). Predictive models could be useful as a preliminary tool to prepare long-term conservation plans on European, national and regional scales.     

Predicting species occurrence using information-theoretic approaches and significance testing: An example of dormouse distribution in Cumbria, UK

Predicting the occurrence of species is an essential part of conservation biology. The range of techniques used to do this has increased in recent years. This has included wider use of information-theoretic approaches; particularly Akaike’s information criteria (AIC). AIC is often used with regression modelling when predicting species distribution. The traditional method of model selection in regression modelling, stepwise significance testing, is also still widely used. This paper compares the two approaches, using the occurrence of the dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) in Cumbria, UK as an example. The dormouse is a protected species whose abundance and range have declined nationally. Knowledge of its occurrence in Cumbria is required in order to increase measures for its conservation in the area. The paper uses the habitat features woodland size, altitude, soil type, tree species present, temperature and rainfall as potential predictors. As only presence data was available for dormice in Cumbria, pseudo-absences were generated to allow logistic regression modelling. The use of pseudo-absences was justified using a false record permutation test. Cross-validation allowed the ability of models to predict the data to be assessed. This was judged using ROC plots. The size of the wood, temperature and whether the soil was wet or dry were the best predictors of dormouse incidence in Cumbria. The two approaches produced different models; those from the information-theoretic approach had a better ability to fit the data. The information-theoretic approach also had the advantage of enabling model averaging and provided greater understanding of the system.     

Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994-1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10×10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model's spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1×1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions.     

Conservation planning under climate change: Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time

Climate warming challenges our approach to building systems of protected areas because it is likely to drive accelerating shifts in species distributions, and the projections of those future species distributions are uncertain. There are several important sources of uncertainty intrinsic to using species occurrence projections for reserve system design including uncertainty in the number of occurrences captured by any reserve selection solution, and uncertainty arising from the different approaches used to fit predictive models. Here we used the present and future predicted distributions of Iberian herptiles to analyze how dynamics and uncertainty in species distributions may affect decisions about resource allocation for conservation in space and time. We identified priority areas maximizing coverage of current and future (2020 and 2080) predicted distributions of 65 species, under “Mild” and “Severe” uncertainty. Next, we applied a return-on-investment analysis to quantify and make explicit trade-offs between investing in areas selected when optimizing for different times and with different uncertainty levels. Areas identified as important for conservation in every time frame and uncertainty level were the ones considered to be robust climate adaptation investments, and included chiefly already protected areas. Areas identified only under “Mild” uncertainty were considered good candidates for investment if extra resources are available and were mainly located in northern Iberia. However, areas selected only in the “Severe” uncertainty case should not be completely disregarded as they may become climatic refugia for some species. Our study provides an objective methodology to deliver “no regrets” conservation investments.     

参与式方法在水土保持规划中的应用

 我国采取的水土流失治理仍是计划经济体制下的“从上而下”的方式。与水土流失及水土保持治理密切相关的农民群众,在治理过程中还是被动的参加,这从根本上影响了水土保持工作的成效。为此,在阐述“参与式”的理念、原则与方法的基础上,从前期准备、情况调查、规划设计,方案审批、实施计划、督查评估等方面提出了参与式方法在水土保持规划中的应用,为水土保持林业生态工程建设提供参考。     

The relevance of data on genetic diversity for the conservation of Afro-montane regions

Molecular data are shedding new light on our understanding of genetic diversity and biological diversity in general. We examine results of recent genetic studies on African birds that document endemic diversity in small, isolated montane forests of Africa. These studies show that levels of genetic differentiation in these isolated montane regions are substantial and indicate little or no gene flow with their closest populations. Although this pattern of locally distributed montane taxa is not something that has gone unnoticed by traditional taxonomists, we argue that many of the small, often outlying areas run the risk of being devalued in conservation planning because these areas generally have comparatively low levels of overall diversity and endemism (especially at the species level). We strongly suspect that other organisms will possess similar patterns of differentiation in Afro-montane regions of Africa and we argue that this information can be effectively brought to bear to highlight the conservation significance of these smaller areas.     

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: The otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species.Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HADCM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas.Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter’s potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.     

Conservation assessment and prioritization of areas in Northeast India: Priorities for amphibians and reptiles

This study combines niche modeling and systematic area prioritization using distribution data for 131 species of amphibians and reptiles from Northeast India and Burma, with two objectives: (i) to evaluate the performance of the current conservation area network in Northeast India with respect to the representation of amphibians and reptiles, and (ii) to identify potential areas for expanding the current conservation area network. In a two-step protocol, maximum entropy niche modeling was used to project species’ potential geographic occurrences, and the resulting probabilistic distribution data were used to prioritize areas with algorithms that maximize the representation of all species in minimal total area. The results provided a critical assessment of conservation priorities in this data-deficient region, and indicate the utility of combining niche modeling with systematic area prioritization in such situations. Many areas that had been overlooked in previous assessments were identified. Although the existing protected areas were found to be inadequate for representation of amphibian and reptile diversity, the prioritization results show that by targeting a minimal representation of 5% of the current total area suitable for each species, the gaps can be filled with a relatively modest (0.41%) increase in the current total area covered by the network. Extended analyses were also performed to assess the effects of putatively rare species on reserve selection, which showed that the inclusion of these taxa can change the prioritization solutions significantly. The prioritization results also highlight areas of Northeast India that warrant attention from future surveys.     

Linking cost efficiency evaluation with population viability analysis to prioritize wetland bird conservation actions

Prioritizing management actions for wildlife conservation is a difficult task due to the large number of problems relative to available conservation resources and uncertainty about the benefits arising from numerous potential management actions. In this study we use a cost-efficiency protocol to evaluate and prioritize eight different management actions for waterbird community in wetlands throughout southeastern Spain. The protocol generated an action priority ranking based on the costs and predicted benefits of the actions in terms of waterbird carrying capacity. Action prioritization outcomes were also evaluated using population viability analysis models for two of the study species. Removal of dead bird carcasses to prevent disease outbreaks was identified as the most cost efficient action. Removing lead pellets from the sediment was the least efficient strategy. Our approach highlights the role of detailed risk assessment as a form of quality control on the simpler prioritization protocols. We recommend a two-step prioritization protocol based on (i) a rapid, usually simpler prioritization approach for the bulk of species or values being managed, and (ii) a more sophisticated risk assessment for a subset of the species of interest for which detailed risk assessments are tractable. This process strikes a balance between sophistication and practicality.     

Matching species with reserves - uncertainties from using data at different resolutions

I address the problem of the mismatch between the spatial resolution of data for species and reserves. Such mismatch may help to recognise variability in species recording in reserves. Using distribution data from 10 × 10 km grid cells for angiosperms, bryophytes, pteridophytes in Portugal, I investigate how mapping rules used to assign reserve coverages to grid cells would affect estimates of species representation in reserves. It was found that the estimated representation of species would be greatly affected by variation in the mapping rules used. The range of expected representation of species in reserves would vary from a minimum of 30% for bryophytes to a maximum of 63% for angiosperms. Current reserve networks would always represent fewer angiosperms than expected by chance; depending on the rules, more or fewer bryophytes than expected by chance; and slightly more, or just as many, pteridophytes as expected by chance. These results call for the need to assess sensitivity of reserve selection and evaluation procedures to data and decision-rules, without which it may be difficult to assess the effectiveness of reserves to represent biodiversity.