Removing erosion control projects increases bank swallow (Riparia riparia) population viability modeled along the Sacramento River, California, USA

Spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful method for modeling the extinction risk of populations that show variation over space and time. It is especially effective for comparing relative effect of different management scenarios on population dynamics. Here, I present a habitat patch-based PVA for a population of the California state-listed threatened bank swallow (Riparia riparia) nesting along the Sacramento River. This model incorporates the effects of habitat availability and location, density dependence, site fidelity, and stochasticity in survival and fecundity. River bank habitat patches suitable for this species were delineated using a geographic information systems (GIS) model of river bank height and were used in a PVA scenario analysis to assess the effects of habitat restoration—that could occur by removing bank erosion control projects (bank revetment)—on population viability. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model estimated probability of quasi-extinction (dropping below 2000 breeding pairs) ranged from 0 to 0.8 depending on the input parameters, with juvenile survival causing the greatest variability. However, comparing changes to the probability of quasi-extinction between the restored habitat scenario and current conditions showed a consistent 40-60% decrease in probability of quasi-extinction across all parameter combinations. The results of this research reaffirm the need for continued protection of the bank swallow as a listed species indicate that the removal of bank erosion control projects would increase viability of this population.     

Do domestic cats impose an unsustainable harvest on urban bird populations?

We assessed the impact of domestic cats on population persistence of native and exotic urban bird populations using a model adjusted for habitat-specific catch rates, cat ownership and hunting activity data. GPS-derived home ranges of 32 cats and resource selection indices demonstrated the degree of penetration and preference for native vegetation fragments. Owners reported on prey brought back by 144 domestic cats in Dunedin, New Zealand, during 12 months. One third of cats never brought back prey, and 21% returned more than one item/month. Cats brought back a mean of 13.4 prey items/year (median = 4), with cats aged <1 year returning more prey than older cats. Birds were the most common prey, followed by rodents. Although cats penetrated adjacent vegetation fragments they did not catch more birds and preferred garden habitat, suggesting that predation pressure may be reduced in fragments. Cat home range size appears to be constrained by cat density while the number of birds caught depends on the density of available prey. Estimates of city-wide catch for six bird species were either more than total urban population size estimates or close to lower confidence intervals. Modelling of three species indicated low likelihood of population persistence with cat predation. The observed persistence of these prey species suggests a meta-population structure with urban populations acting as sinks with source populations located on the city fringe.     

A quantitative framework to evaluate incidental take and endangered species population viability

Incidental take is the permitted unintended or collateral killing, harassment, or habitat destruction of a protected species under endangered species law and is permissible as long as the take does not jeopardize the species’ persistence in the wild. However, take is seldom addressed in a quantitative or population modeling context and the criterion of “jeopardy” has no universal, quantitative definition. To model the effect of incidental take on population viability, we modified an existing population model and simulated abundance, population growth, and quasi-extinction probability (the probability of falling below a predetermined abundance threshold) for Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) in the Great Plains, USA. The model incorporated environmental stochasticity and variation due to sampling variance. Eggs and chicks were taken out of the population as a “harvest” to simulate incidental take that currently occurs in the Missouri River system. We used least-squares regression and an AIC model selection approach to evaluate the population’s elasticity to incidental take covariates. Even in the absence of take the population declined by 7.5% annually. Population growth and final abundance were reduced and the probability of quasi-extinction was increased in simulations where egg take and chick take were applied. The model selection analysis indicated that incidental take of eggs and chicks depresses population viability and the probability of recovery of Piping Plovers in the Great Plains. Though the model was useful in putting take and jeopardy in a quantitative setting, the question remains as to whether permitted levels of take causes jeopardy for Piping Plovers since there are no decision standards defined by the USFWS. However, evaluating take in a quantitative framework, as we have, will make jeopardy decisions more explicit in terms of viability and recovery metrics.     

Coexisting with fire: The case of the terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca in mediterranean shrublands

Fire and fire management are recognized as important factors in biodiversity conservation. Measuring species-level demographic, behavioural and population responses to different fire regimes is essential for designing adequate management policies. Here we assessed the impact of fire on survival rates, reproduction and movement patterns in Testudo graeca, an endangered terrestrial tortoise inhabiting the Mediterranean region, a system in which fire plays a relevant role in the functioning of their ecosystems. Then we predicted the probabilities of quasi-extinction of T. graeca under several fire regimes and population sizes by means of stochastic population models. Our results showed that fire caused direct and delayed reductions in local survival, young individuals being the most affected. There were not differences in fecundity and movement patterns of tortoises between burned and unburned areas. Population models showed a strong variation in the probability of quasi-extinction of populations depending on the fire regime and the population size. Under fire frequencies similar to those occurring in the wild (<1 fire every 20–30 years) most tortoise populations seemed to buffer the effects of fires. However, when this threshold value of fire frequency was surpassed, the probability of quasi-extinction of populations exploded for all populations, except for those with the largest sizes. T. graeca populations may be able to cope with natural current fire frequencies, but the effects of more recurrent fires may severely threaten the species. Our results have straightforward applications for fire management purposes in those areas of the Mediterranean region where this endangered species is present.     

Threat and response: A decade of decline in a regionally endangered rainforest palm affected by fire and introduced animals

The wild population of the palm Ptychosperma macarthurii near Darwin, in monsoonal northern Australia, is regionally endangered and provides a focus to illustrate a range of issues pertinent to conservation of rainforest habitat. Surveys in 1990 found that several populations exhibited a polarised size class structure typified by large adults and small juvenile plants. Over the following decade, in the absence of wildfire and in a period of reduced disturbance from introduced buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), cattle (Bos indicus) and pig (Sus scrofa), sufficient small juvenile plants survived and grew so as to infill the intermediate size classes. Three stage (bifid, juvenile and adult) transition matrix models characterised the population as declining under all observed conditions (intrinsic rate of increase: unburnt + few animals 0.9850; unburnt + many animals 0.9584; burnt <1 year 0.8737; burnt 1-2 years 0.9146; burnt >2 years 0.9937). In the absence of fire, simulations conducted to explore management options revealed a positive rate of increase with exclusion of introduced animals. With only partial introduced animal control or supplementation with juvenile plants, the median rate of increase remained negative. The regional population is at risk by more frequent and more intense fire due to the invasion of exotic grass species and land use changes in the catchment which result in an increased drying of the rainforest habitat. Ongoing decline is the most likely outcome in the absence of effective management intervention.     

Estimating the rate of quasi-extinction of the Australian grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus) population using deterministic age- and stage-classified models

Grey nurse sharks off the east coast of Australia are listed nationally as “critically endangered” under Schedule 1 of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) and may number no more than 300 in New South Wales and southern Queensland waters. They are an inshore, coastal dwelling species and were severely depleted by spearfishing in the 1960s. The population has continued to decline despite protection since 1984. Their life history (long-lived to 25+ years), late maturation (6-8 years), low fecundity (maximum 2 live young biennially), specific habitat requirements, limited inshore distribution, and small population size render them particularly vulnerable to extinction. We estimated the time to quasi-extinction (years elapsed for the population to consist of ?50 females) for the grey nurse shark population off the east coast of Australia based on current estimates of abundance and known anthropogenic rates of mortality. Estimated minimum population size was 300 as of 2002, and minimum anthropogenic mortality assessed from recovered carcasses was 12/year of which 75% were females. We modelled time to quasi-extinction using deterministic age- and stage-classified models for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios. Population size was estimated at 300 (worst), 1000 (likely) and 3000 (best). Anthropogenic mortality was added to the model assuming either all carcasses are being recovered (best), or conservatively, that only 50% are reported (realistic). Depending on model structure, if all carcasses are being reported, quasi-extinction times for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios range from 13 to 16 years, 84-98 years and 289-324 years, respectively. If under-reporting is occurring, time to quasi-extinction ranges from 6 to 8 years, 45-53 years and 173-200 years, respectively. In all scenarios modelled the grey nurse shark population will decline if no further steps are taken to remove anthropogenic sources of mortality. Because estimates of quasi-extinction rate depend on initial population size, and sensitivity analysis revealed that population rate of change was most sensitive to changes in the survival probability of the smallest length classes, obtaining precise estimates of abundance and annual survival of young females is critical.     

Savanna herbivore dynamics in a livestock-dominated landscape: I. Dependence on land use, rainfall, density, and time

Ecosystem processes in African savannas can be better conserved if management is based on a mechanistic understanding of wildlife dynamics in livestock-dominated landscapes. For Laikipia District, a non-protected savanna region in northern Kenya, we used spatially explicit estimates of density to characterize factors influencing the dynamics of large herbivores on three land-use types: commercial ranches that favor wildlife, communal ‘group ranches’ practicing pastoralism, and the remainder (‘transitional’ properties). For 21-year time series of nine wild and two domestic species, linear model selection was used to ascribe between 45% (Grant’s gazelle) and 95% (plains zebra) of observed variation in biomass density to land use, rainfall-dependence, density-dependence, and trends over time.Strongly opposing patterns of variation across the landscape in wildlife and livestock densities affirmed the primacy of land use among factors influencing wildlife abundance in non-protected areas. Rainfall limited densities of only the dominant grazing species throughout the monitoring period (plains zebra and cattle), and of most other species while their densities were high. Regulating effects of density were detected only for the dominant wild grazing and browsing species (zebra and giraffe). All but two wild species (zebra and Grant’s gazelle) declined on at least one land-use type, for reasons that varied among land uses.Where favored, diverse and abundant wild herbivores (mean of 1.7 t km⁻² on pro-wildlife ranches) can thrive even when sharing the landscape with a slightly higher biomass density of livestock (mean of 2.7 t km⁻²). Where not favored, only a few resilient wild species (e.g. gazelles and plains zebra) persist with high densities of livestock (mean of 4.6 t km⁻² on transitional ranches). Maintaining higher wild species diversity in the landscape will depend on the creation of a network of unfenced conservation areas in which livestock densities are persistently low or zero, which are sufficiently large to act as ‘sources’ of wild species that are prone to displacement by humans and livestock, and which generate benefits to community members that exceed opportunity costs.     

Extirpation, colonization, and habitat dynamics of a keystone species along an urban gradient

Using 5 years of patch occupancy data for 384 habitat fragments, we evaluated population and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog in urban habitat remnants in the rapidly developing landscape of Denver, CO, USA. Specifically, we evaluated the landscape factors, including fragment area, age, and connectivity, that characterize the habitat fragments most likely to be colonized by prairie dogs, as well as those experiencing local extinctions. In addition, we determined which patch types were most often removed by land development. Sites in proximity to colonies were more likely to be colonized by prairie dogs. Local extinctions were most common on isolated colonies, and older and more isolated colonies were more likely to be extirpated by human activity. In general, smaller and older habitat patches were at the highest risk of being lost to land development. Our results provide observations of dynamic changes to the distribution of a potential keystone species in an urban area, which can be used to inform island biogeographic and metapopulation models for wildlife persistence in developing landscapes. Although populations are currently in decline, most local extinctions are the direct result of human activity, and we suggest that prairie dogs in this area can persist with appropriate management.     

Community‐Based Rehabilitation of Mountain Terraces in Cyprus

Participatory methods and community‐based approaches have an important role to play in combating land degradation. This paper follows a well‐defined participatory framework to identify key stakeholders and to select Sustainable Land Management approaches for reducing soil erosion and land degradation in the Troodos Mountains of Cyprus. Among the options suggested and evaluated by stakeholders, terrace rehabilitation had the best overall performance, followed by crop diversification and afforestation. Stakeholders agreed that the rehabilitation of dry‐stone terraces was the preferred option, as it is a practice with high environmental benefits and fits well in the local socio‐cultural context, despite the higher cost compared to other options. In the first year of implementing the approach, three mountain communities co‐organised hands‐on terrace maintenance events, engaging more than 160 people in rehabilitation activities. The community‐based approach has sparked the interest of people within and beyond the research site, and another series of events is scheduled for the coming season. This outcome indicates that social innovations can benefit from the integration of local and scientific knowledge, while participatory process can enhance the self‐confidence and organisational structures of local communities. Sustaining and enhancing the impact of the approach in the long‐run require developing local terrace maintenance institutions, actively engaging the youth in terrace management and improving the profitability of mountain farming through the differentiation of local products. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reed harvest and summer drawdown enhance bittern habitat in the Camargue

The vulnerable Eurasian bittern Botaurus stellaris has recently benefited from conservation actions in several European countries. The Camargue in Mediterranean France holds 8000 ha of reed marshes and 50% of the French bittern population estimated at 300-350 booming males. Although reed cutting in Europe is a current practice, we provide the first analyses on habitat selection relative to reed exploitation. The contribution of reed harvesting and water management was assessed at a fine scale (digitized aerial photographs of 50-cm resolution) based on multi-modelling data analyses. GLMs applied to random and bittern points of 50-m radius showed that bitterns preferred areas with less than 10% open water enclosing 1-year reeds. Only in harvested reedbeds had the water management a significant impact on habitat selection, with bitterns avoiding areas dried during less than two months and flooded since less than 8 months. Water edge played a role in non-harvested reeds only, with bittern seeking for areas with the highest ratio water edge to open water. Although reed cutting is generally considered as detrimental in the short term, two 4-year experiments showed a marked increase in bitterns the first spring after cutting was interrupted. Based on these results, we propose various management scenarios that conciliate economic constraints of reed harvesters and protection of Eurasian bittern populations.     

Environmental change hastens the demise of the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

Declining population numbers coupled with the growing evidence of global change have focussed attention on the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) endemic to South Africa. The aim of this study is to develop a habitat model to aid in the identification of isolated populations, offer opportunities for re-introduction or introduction, and guide future conservation efforts by assessing the possible impacts of global change. We attempt a novel approach where plant species which afford the riverine rabbit cover from predation and its primary food sources are modelled utilising the same technique and are included as a predictor variable in the habitat model for both current and future projections of potential habitat. Inclusion of this proximal variable as well as riparian areas yields a more parsimonious habitat model than using climatic variables alone. Results suggest that unsurveyed suitable habitat east of Victoria West might harbour previously overlooked isolated populations or offer new opportunities for re-introductions. Future climatic conditions under the most severe general circulation model for the region (HADCM3) suggest that, on average, in excess of 96% of the current habitat could become unsuitable, mitigated only slightly by a possible 7% increase in range in adjacent upper catchment areas. Consideration of existing land transformation increases this range reduction by a further 1%. Given that ex situ captive breeding programmes have met with no success and that the bulk of future potential range lies well outside of the currently known and surveyed areas the current adaptation options of conservancy establishment and captive breeding need to be re-evaluated. Without positive human intervention the future of the critically endangered riverine rabbit under conditions of global change seems certain.     

The regional distribution of large gliding possums in southern Queensland, Australia. I. The yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis)

Generalised linear modelling (logistic regression) was used to predict habitat suitability for the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) from data collected from 620 sites throughout southern Queensland, Australia. Of 42 potential explanatory biotic and abiotic variables, 12 were selected in the final model including an index describing bark characteristics of the overstorey, five climatic variables, three topographic/lithological variables, two landscape metrics and one survey covariate. The predictive capacity of the final model was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and an independent validation dataset (ROC = 0.75; n = 180). Of the extant forest and woodlands of the southern Queensland study region, the interpolated model predicted that approximately 19% was yellow-bellied glider habitat. The majority of predicted habitat occurred within public-owned forests, which are managed under a set of prescribed standards in a Code of Practice for commercial forest management. An important issue for conservation management of the yellow-bellied glider will be management of habitat on privately owned land, which incorporates over 27% of potential glider habitat.     

Waterfowl-habitat associations during winter in an urban North Atlantic estuary

Coastal habitats near urban centres in North Atlantic estuaries often support substantial numbers of wintering waterfowl, but little is known of the effects of landscape setting and urbanisation on habitat use. We conducted surveys of waterfowl at 32 wintering sites in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to identify characteristics that may influence habitat use. Sites were chosen along a gradient of urbanisation and reflected the dominant habitat types used by waterfowl in the Bay. Mean waterfowl abundance was 206.7 ± 209.5 birds per site, and sites in the inner part of the estuary had higher overall waterfowl abundances (r² = 0.40, p = 0.021). Species richness ranged from 3.2 to 13.0 and decreased with increasing hunting activity (r² = 0.36, p = 0.040). Hunting activity and habitat characteristics (e.g., latitude, shoreline configuration, prey density) explained 13-27% of the variation in waterfowl abundance and species richness among sites, but landscape characteristics (e.g., surrounding residential development, vegetated land, or wetland surrounding the sites and the extent of wetland edge) explained an additional 1-26%. The landscape characteristics extent of adjacent residential development and vegetated upland were the most common variables entering into the models; most species were more abundant at sites with more adjacent vegetated upland and less adjacent residential development. Our results suggest that landscape setting may be influencing the distribution of wintering waterfowl, and should be considered when developing strategies for the conservation for these species in urban North Atlantic estuaries.     

The impact of pelagic longline fishing on the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes in Eastern Australia

The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.     

Constraints to farmers managing dryland salinity in the central wheatbelt of Western Australia

There is an increasingly well‐founded understanding of the chief drivers and constraints to widespread adoption by Australian landholders to practices to manage dryland salinity. However, each specific situation depends on a range of biophysical, social and economic factors. Such is the case in this study that examines farmers' salinity management in the Wallatin‐O'Brien catchments in the low‐medium rainfall zone of the Western Australian wheatbelt. The study involved interviews with landholders and economic modelling of representative farms and salinity management options to gain an understanding of the farmers' adoption behaviour regarding salinity management. Most landholders interviewed saw dryland salinity as a second order farm management issue, due first to the relatively slow rate of expansion of saline land within the catchments and second, because the changes in land use required to prevent further loss of land to salinity were viewed as being uneconomic. The exception to this was the minority (<15 per cent) of farmers in the catchment that have most of the saline land and have experienced most of the recent increase, and for these farmers (primarily located in the valley floor) salinity is a pressing issue. The scale and pattern of isolated outbreaks on adjacent slopes means that salinity is merely a nuisance problem for farmers who only have this type of salinity. For all farmers, a disincentive to invest in salinity management was the landholders' lack of knowledge about the proper placement, needed scale of adoption and economic viability of salinity management options. Saltland pastures, surface water management and lucerne were viewed positively, with several desirable characteristics such as ease of trialling and complementarity to existing farm practices. By contrast, engineering options such as deep drainage, where considerable investment is involved and disposal of groundwater is problematic, were rated less favourably. Bioeconomic modelling of these salinity management options generated results that largely confirmed the merits of what landholders in the catchments currently do. The findings showed that there was little economic merit in wide‐scale adoption of these salinity management options in these catchments. However, the findings did highlight the need to match salinity management options to a farm's particular circumstance, if best use of the options is to be made by the different farms in the catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population viability analysis and fire return intervals for an endemic Florida scrub mint

We use population viability analysis of an endangered Florida scrub mint, Dicerandra frutescens, to specify the optimal fire return intervals for its long-term persistence and for its specific habitat. We derived 83 population projection matrices from 13 years of demographic data from eight populations, 59 matrices from scrub populations and 24 from firelane or yard edges. Seed dormancy and germination transitions were inferred based on experimental data and verified by comparing modeled vs. observed population trajectories. Finite rates of increase in scrub sites were highest shortly after fire and declined steeply through 10 years postfire. The break-even value of λ = 1 was passed quickly, in about six years, suggesting that populations >6 years postfire were already facing decline. The decline is probably related to the rapid growth of competing shrubs in the habitat of D. frutescens. In long-unburned sites, finite rates of increase were nearly always <1 and declined the most in the long-unburned site with no foot trails or treefall gaps. Finite rates of increase in firelane populations also declined with years since fire or last disking. The yard edge population showed λ values both >1 and <1, with no temporal trend. Stochastic simulations in scrub sites suggested an optimal regular fire return interval of about 6-12 years. Regular fires at this interval were more favorable than stochastic fire regimes, but stochasticity reduced extinction percentages at longer fire return intervals. Stochastic fire return intervals implied a wider optimal fire return interval of 6-21 years. We suggest that prescribed fire in Florida scrub on yellow sand has occurred (and needs to occur) more frequently than previously recommended.     

Habitat selection by East Caucasian tur (Capra cylindricornis)

Habitat selection by East Caucasian tur (Capra cylindricornis), a species of global conservation concern, was examined in relation to terrain, climate and degree of human disturbance using a Geographical Information System and logistic regression. The study area was in the part of the Greater Caucasus of Georgia, where the species protection was not enforced. Two models of tur habitat requirements were obtained: one model at a scale of 20 × 20 m plots, and the other one at a scale of different habitat fragments made up of 20 × 20 m plots identified by the first model at its optimal cut-off value. The second model refined the first one.The first model suggested that the probability of a 20 × 20 m plot being part of tur habitat was positively correlated with slope, distances to roads and livestock summer camps, and negatively correlated with human population density and annual rainfall. The probability had a bell-shaped correlation with elevation, reaching its maximum at 3008.4 m. The second model suggested that a fragment of a land made up of 20 × 20 m plots with optimal characteristics for tur occurrence was more likely to contain tur if the area of the fragment was larger and its distance to the nearest area where tur occurred was shorter.The results show that the occurrence of East Caucasian tur is affected by climate, terrain, human disturbance and habitat fragmentation, and can be predicted regardless of seasonality in the species movements. These models can be applied to the management of the species and its habitat in the areas of the Caucasus that lie at >1000 m asl and have an annual rainfall >600 mm, and where the species protection is not enforced.     

Land use and conservation value for forest birds in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia)

Unprecedented deforestation is currently underway in Southeast Asia. Since this trend is likely to continue, it is critical to determine the value of human-modified habitats (e.g., mixed-rural habitat) for conserving the regional native forest avifauna. The impacts of ongoing deforestation on the highly endemic avifauna (33%) of Sulawesi (Indonesia) are poorly understood. We sampled birds in primary and secondary forests in the Lore Lindu National Park in central Sulawesi, as well as the surrounding plantation and mixed-rural habitats. Species richness, species density and population density of forest birds showed a consistent decreasing trend in the following order: primary forests > secondary forests > mixed-rural habitat > plantations. Although primary forests contained the highest proportion (85%) of a total of 34 forest species recorded from our point count surveys, 40-yr old secondary forests and the mixed-rural habitat showed high conservation potential, containing 82% and 76% of the forest species, respectively. Plantations recorded only 32% of the forest bird species. Fifteen forest species had the highest abundance in primary forests, while two species had higher abundance outside primary forests. Our simulations revealed that all forest birds that were sensitive to native tree cover could be found in areas with at least 20% continuous native tree cover. Our study shows that although primary forests have the highest conservation value for forest avifauna, the potential of degraded habitats, such as secondary forests and the mixed-rural habitat, for conserving forest species can be enhanced with appropriate land use and management decisions.     

Simulating the effects of different disturbance regimes on Cortaderia selloana invasion

Disturbances favour plant invasions because they provide a pulse of resources for seedling establishment and growth. However, little attention has been paid to the importance of the different disturbance regimes in the extent of invasion. In this paper we asked to what extent invasion depends on spatial and temporal patterns of disturbance. By using the spatially explicit model Fateland, we simulated how Cortaderia selloana, a large-wind dispersed perennial grass invading Mediterranean grasslands, responds to different medium-term (up to 55 years) disturbance regimes. The different scenarios combine disturbance frequency, extent of disturbance and temporal and spatial disturbance variability, and they roughly mimic real situations of habitat management and disturbances in cultural landscapes.The model predicted that the proportion of invaded area would increase with disturbance frequency. The extent of the disturbance overcame the importance of frequency. Aggregated disturbances randomly distributed in space had a more positive effect on invasion than scattered disturbances at repeatedly fixed locations. Whether the disturbances regularly occurred in time or were irregularly distributed did not influence the percentage of invaded landscape. Our simulation analysis unambiguously supports the hypothesis that disturbances are essential for the persistence and expansion of Cortaderia sellona. The high amount of seed rain from a few individuals (e.g., gardens) make this species very sensitive to landscape changes produced by different disturbance patterns (e.g., land abandonment, habitat management or rubbish dumping). Our results can contribute to redirect land management options.