The “Crex crex” lament: Estimating landowners willingness to pay for corncrake conservation on Irish farmland

This paper considers farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to conserve an endangered Irish farmland bird, the corncrake (Crex crex). An Irish National Farm Survey is used to produce individual farm-level WTP estimates for the year 2006. These figures are then aggregated to obtain a total value figure for the farming community of corncrake conservation in Ireland. We focus on the willingness to pay of farmers rather than the WTP of the general Irish population, as farmers will ultimately be the ones that will have to take responsibility if targets set out in the All Ireland Action Plan for corncrake conservation are to be achieved. Quantifying willingness to pay on the part of farmers can help inform the design of agri-environment schemes aimed at improving conservation of many bird species on farmland. Results indicate that the non-market benefit of corncrake conservation in Ireland may significantly outweigh the costs of existing conservation schemes.     

渭干河流域生态系统服务的支付意愿及影响因素分析

生态系统服务价值的计算是生态补偿的关键问题,是生态经济学研究的热点。本文以塔里木河流域九大水系之一的渭干河流域为靶区,采用条件价值评估方法(contingent valuation method,CVM),通过调查流域居民的支付意愿来反映该区域的生态系统服务价值,并运用皮尔逊相关系数和多元线性回归方法对支付意愿与社会经济变量之间关系进行分析。结果表明:1)渭干河流域居民每户每年的平均支付意愿为96.22元,该结果与国外及国内东部地区流域的研究成果相比偏低,与国内西北地区流域的研究结果接近。渭干河流域生态系统服务价值为2 443.46万元。2)渭干河流域居民的支付意愿与收入水平、受教育程度、对生态环境重要性的认知水平及户籍等因素显著正相关,与支付方式负相关,与性别和年龄的相关性不显著,各因素在流域上下游间表现出差异性。3)社会经济因素中,收入水平对支付意愿的影响程度最大,标准化系数达到0.604,其次是对生态环境重要性认知及支付方式,受教育程度对居民支付意愿的影响相对较小。4)CVM方法在相近区域的研究结果接近,与运用遥感手段及相应方法计算结果一致;不同方法计算的生态系统服务价值差距甚大,同时就多元回归方法存在的共线性问题及解决方法进行了分析讨论。研究丰富了条件价值评估方法在干旱区内陆河流域少数民族地区的应用,为流域生态补偿标准的制订提供科学依据。     

玉米秸秆还田技术支付与受偿意愿差异性研究——以保定市徐水区农户调查为例

如何揭示秸秆还田技术实践中利益相关者生态补偿的真实意愿,不但是技术外部性测度研究的难点问题,也是提高农业补偿政策准确性与效能的有效途径。以往的研究较多地采用农田生态系统的生态服务价值量估算技术产生的外部性价值,由于未充分考虑环境利益双方量价关系的均衡,评估结果的准确性往往受到质疑。鉴于此,本研究首先厘清主体关系,农户是生产技术的实践者和环境保护参与者,理应成为技术进步的受益者。因而,技术外部性测度应充分尊重农民的意愿和利益。其次,确定研究方法。本研究采用国际通用的意愿价值评估法(CVM),引导获取河北省保定市徐水区502户受访者采纳秸秆还田技术的支付意愿(WTP)和受偿意愿(WTA);结合多元对数线性模型估计法,估算受访者应用秸秆还田技术主要机械成本(包括秸秆粉碎及旋耕费用)的最大WTP值和最小WTA值。结果表明:WTP的期望值为38.23元×户~(-1)×a~(-1),WTA的期望值为137.52元×户~(-1)×a~(-1),WTA/WTP的比值为3.6倍。本文进一步剖析WTP与WTA差异性原因,运用回归模型分析两者差异性影响因素,其中:机械成本对差异性有显著正向影响,已成为影响玉米秸秆还田推广的重要决定因素;劳动力比率、信息来源、灌溉成本和收割方式等4个因素与差异性均产生负向关联。可见,在大力推广玉米生产全程机械化进程中,机械成本上涨部分抵消了国家惠农政策补贴的效果,导致农户参与秸秆还田积极性并不高。因此,决策部门及时跟进技术价值评估工作,建立针对农户的直接补偿机制,是从根源上解决技术外部性内部化问题的有效途径。     

Population viability of Cape mountain zebra in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve, South Africa: the influence of habitat and fire

The small Cape mountain zebra population in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve represents a third of the entire gene pool of this endangered species and is thus vital for it’s conservation. Presently, management of this population is largely hands off, with the belief that it will grow to levels which will allow it to form a source for the mixing of mountain zebra stocks in the future. The growth of this population however, has been slow and we investigated the influence of habitat and fire on this growth. Firstly, we used a diffusion model to perform a population viability analysis. This analysis indicated that the population had a low probability of attaining quasi-extinction in the next 50 years (G = 0.0032). However, our findings indicated that less than 30% of the reserve was suitable for mountain zebra and that the preferred habitat would have to be burnt at unnaturally short intervals to sustain the present growth. We therefore argue that the risk of quasi-extinction to this population is greater than predicted and suggest that management options need to be implemented to reduce this risk. These options include; translocation to another protected area; acquisition of adjacent land; burning preferred habitat at unnaturally short intervals; forming a conservancy with adjacent landowners; leasing cultivated land for pasture. We suggest that only the latter two options are likely to stimulate mountain zebra population growth in the short term and that these should receive immediate attention.     

Persistence of a rare ancient cycad: Effects of environment and demography

Conservation of rare species is frequently complicated by their narrow niches and poor competitive abilities which limit their distribution to a few small populations. We studied how population size and structure of an endemic cycad of northwestern Mexico, Dioon sonorense, known to be threatened by widespread land conversion and plant extraction by humans, varied with 21 environmental variables. We also used matrix population models to show how population structure may affect its long-term persistence. Slope and soil exchangeable potassium explained a moderate proportion of the variance in the abundance of adult individuals, while abundance of adults and slope explained a large proportion of the variance in the abundance of seedlings. The strong non-linear relationships of seedling abundance with slope and adult abundance suggest threshold effects that may limit D. sonorense regeneration in less suitable environments. Modeling suggests that most of the study populations will not be viable in the long-term, except for the largest population. Modeling scenarios with large increments in fecundity and seedling survival produced modest gains in population growth. The long-term persistence of D. sonorense is shown in our study to be further threatened by: (a) small size of adult populations, (b) low-quality habitat in which most populations occur, and potentially, (c) the combined effect of low fecundity and recruitment.     

Decline and likely extinction of a northern Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus

Contemporary fire patterns are considered the most likely cause for regional population decline amongst small to medium mammals in northern tropical Australia. Here we assess the extinction risk faced by a vulnerable north Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus in relation to fire frequency. This species has recently suffered a significant contraction in range. We provide the first quantitative evidence to demonstrate the immediate threat destructive wildfires and regular annual fire pose to the long-term population persistence of C. penicillatus. We show that late-dry season fires cause a reduction in both juvenile and adult survival probabilities. However, abundance declined at the unburnt as well as a frequently burnt site, suggesting that fire exclusion alone does not guarantee the species’ long-term persistence. Our model projections indicate that the remaining populations of C. penicillatus on the Northern Territory mainland risk extirpation within the next ten years. Conservation requires decisive management action to ameliorate extensive and destructive fires. A multi-faceted management plan needs to focus on restoring a fire management regime which generates a fine-scale mosaic of burnt and unburnt habitat, and the release of captive bred animals into fenced reserves free of exotic predators.     

Importance of the seed bank for population viability and population monitoring in a threatened wetland herb

Although demographic models have become increasingly important tools in plant conservation, few models have considered the implications of seed banks for population persistence. Based on a 15-year study of the threatened herb, Helenium virginicum, we created a stage-class transition matrix to model the population dynamics of the plant. Our goal was to determine the role of the seed bank in population persistence and in the design of monitoring programs for the plant. Using data from marked plants, a long-term study of seed viability, and a seed bank census, we created a deterministic model and three stochastic models. The stochastic models were a model in which yearly correlations among parameters were retained, a model in which parameters were uncorrelated, and a model in which parameters were derived from log-normal distribution. We also constructed a fourth model in which we assumed a minimum seed lifetime consistent with the seed viability data. Both elasticity and perturbation analysis suggested that seed survival within the seed bank had by far the largest effects on the population growth rate (λ), with 47-64% of the change in λ being controlled by seed survival. Correlations among life history parameters had little effect on λ in the original models, but substantially reduced λ (from 0.97 to 0.86) when seed survival was limited. Given the importance of the seed bank and the high yearly variability in adult plant density, we used simulations to compare power to detect declines with seed bank samples versus censuses of adult plants. The power of adult plant censuses was extremely low (13-22%). The power of seed bank censuses was substantially higher (48-59%), but was limited by large pulses of recruitment to the seed bank in good years. Power was only moderately reduced when seeds were sampled every two or four years instead of yearly (from 59% to 48%). Together, our results suggest that seed survival is crucial to persistence of Helenium populations and that future empirical studies should focus on understanding the factors that affect seed survival. In addition, managers should consider seed bank censuses rather than above-ground plants when designing monitoring programs for plants in variable environments where above-ground plants vary greatly from year to year.     

Stochastic variation in reproductive success of a rare frog, Rana sevosa: implications for conservation and for monitoring amphibian populations

Although amphibian populations are thought to be declining in many parts of the world, detailed information on populations in decline are often not available. From 1988 to 2001, we studied temporal variation in the reproductive biology of the only known population of dusky gopher frogs, Rana sevosa Goin and Netting. We found high annual variation in reproductive effort, mortality at the egg and larval stages, and hydroperiod length. No overall trends were apparent in terms of either number of egg masses deposited or in reproductive success, as we found extensive variation among years in the number of egg masses deposited, a high rate of reproductive failure, and no consistent relationship between the number of females present, the number of eggs deposited, and the number of metamorphs emerging. Given the complete isolation of this population from other gopher frogs and the high rate of reproductive failure, the probability of extinction of this population appears to be quite high (0.125-0.316).     

Extreme population divergence and conservation implications for the rare endangered Atlantic Forest sloth, Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa: Bradypodidae)

The maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus) is an endangered species endemic to the Atlantic Forest of eastern Brazil. This biome has been reduced to 7% of its original extent and the remaining forests are highly fragmented. We analyzed 70 samples from the largest remnant populations in the states of Bahia, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro to characterize their geographic structure and to produce estimates of genetic diversity. The analysis indicated that the remnant populations are reproductively isolated and extremely divergent. The populations present a very discontinuous distribution, with divergent genetic clusters specific to different geographical regions, probably caused by allopatric fragmentation. This pattern is likely related to Pleistocenic climatic and vegetation changes, and indicates the presence of at least two independent evolutionary units. The analyses also indicate that populations separated by more than 100 km should be considered different management units. Thus, devastation of the Atlantic Forest leads to an unrecoverable loss of genetic diversity in this species. These conclusions should direct conservation actions aimed at preserving the distinctiveness of each evolutionary unit, as well as to preserve the demographic isolation of different management units.     

Social perceptions of the impacts and benefits of invasive alien species: Implications for management

Research on biological invasions has traditionally focused on the ecological component of invasive alien species, either without considering or by considering in a restricted way, the knowledge of the social component. An understanding of the human dimension of invasions is critical to effectively tackle the problems associated with invasive alien species. We distributed questionnaires to evaluate the social perceptions and attitudes of different stakeholder groups affected by invasive alien species in the Doñana social-ecological system (SW Spain). Our analysis served to characterize respondents based on their knowledge and perceptions of the impacts of invasive alien species, and the attitudes toward their introduction and eradication. Hierarchical cluster and principal component analyses identified five categories of respondents, and potential support of eradication programs was assessed using a contingent valuation approach. The five stakeholder groups differed in their degree of knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and willingness to pay for eradication. The fact that different stakeholders have remarkably different perceptions about the impacts and benefits caused by invasive alien species, and different attitudes toward their introduction or eradication should be considered in any decision-making process regarding their management, particularly when developing appropriate educational and informative programs. Consultation with different stakeholders should also be encouraged from the onset of any decision-making process. In this way, trade-offs involved in IAS management are directly addressed and successful implementation of management practices is facilitated.     

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ∼2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality.     

The distribution of disturbance-dependent rare plants in a coastal Massachusetts sandplain: Implications for conservation and management

Rare plants in coastal New England sandplains are often restricted to anthropogenically disturbed sites including plowed and mowed firelanes at the Manuel F. Correllus State Forest on Martha’s Vineyard. Little is known about pre-colonial rare plant habitat or how modern management impacts these species. To understand the factors influencing rare plant distribution, we examined the influence of vegetation structure, species composition, environmental characteristics and disturbance history on rare plant populations and potential natural habitat in the 2100-ha Forest. We sampled >100, 100 m² plots - in firelanes and forested/shrubland areas - and conducted extensive searches for rare plants.Linum intercursum and Scleria pauciflora var. caroliniana were frequent in firelanes including in recently plowed areas, whereas Nabalus serpentarius, Sisyrinchium fuscatum, and Aristida purpurascens generally occurred in isolated, locally-abundant patches in firelanes not plowed for many decades. The former group may be characterized by an ability to rapidly establish following disturbances while the latter may take longer to establish and develop large populations. In some respects, rare plants were associated with environmental conditions reflecting the disturbance histories of sites they occupied (e.g., L. intercursum with lower duff depth and N. serpentarius with greater litter cover/depth).In forests and shrublands undisturbed for decades, rare plants only occurred on well-worn paths. Although scrub oak stands supported conditions more similar to those found in firelanes than other native vegetation types, disturbances - far more severe than those in forests/shrublands of the past century - are probably required to create suitable rare plant habitat in sandplain forests and shrublands.     

Population sizes, site fidelity and residence patterns of Australian snubfin and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins: Implications for conservation

Very little is known about the ecology of snubfin Orcaella heinsohni and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins Sousa chinensis in Australian waters. We used photo-identification data collected between 1999 and 2002 in Cleveland Bay, northeast Queensland, to estimate abundance, site fidelity and residence patterns of these species in order to make recommendations for their effective conservation and management. Our abundance estimates indicate that less than a hundred individuals of each species inhabit this coastal area. Even with relatively unbiased and precise abundance estimates population trends will be extremely difficult to detect in less than three years unless changes in population size are very high (>20% p.a.). Though both species are not permanent residents in Cleveland Bay, they both used the area regularly from year to year following a model of emigration and reimmigration. Individuals of both species spend periods of days to a month or more in coastal waters of Cleveland Bay before leaving, and periods of over a month outside the study area before entering the bay again. Because of their small population sizes and movement patterns, snubfin and humpback dolphins are particularly vulnerable to local extinction. Our results illustrate that: (1) detection of population trends should not be a necessary criterion for enacting conservation measures of both species in this region, and (2) efforts to maintain viable populations of both species in Cleveland Bay must include management strategies that integrate anthropogenic activities in surrounding areas.     

Geographic differentiation of morphological traits and isozymes in the Mediterranean island endemic Anchusa crispa: implications for the conservation of a protected species

Understanding population differentiation and genetic diversity within population is critical to the development of conservation programmes for threatened species. The protected species, Anchusa crispa Viv. occurs on coastal sand dunes in three disjunct geographical groups of populations: two populations on the east coast of Corsica, several populations around a single estuary on the west coast of Corsica and at a number of sites in north-west Sardinia, where two different subspecies occur. In this study we quantify differentiation of reproductive traits and isozymes among regions and populations on Corsica and between subspecies on Sardinia. No isozyme variation was detected within any of the studied populations nor among populations from a given geographic region. Two loci showed geographic differentiation between regions on Corsica. On Sardinia, the two subspecies showed no isozyme differentiation, and, depending on the loci examined, are similar to one or other of the two regions on Corsica. Reproductive traits show significant differentiation between geographic regions on Corsica, but little variation among populations within a region. In populations on the west coast of Corsica, flowers are small and have a stigma situated at the same level as the apex of the anthers whereas on the east coast, flowers are larger and have the stigma below the anthers. On Sardinia, A. crispa subsp. crispa has a floral morphology similar to the Corsican plants, whereas subspecies maritima has larger flowers with the stigma positioned above the anthers (approach-herkogamy). Quantitative variation in floral morphology thus agrees with the separation of two taxonomic entities on Sardinia and geographic variation in reproductive traits and isozymes has important ramifications for the sampling of populations for conservation programmes.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.