A synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of total allowable catches in the high seas

Total allowable catch restrictions (hereafter referred to as catch quotas) play an important role in maintaining healthy fish stocks. While studies have identified a positive relationship between catch quota implementation and improved stock status, these methods are subject to selection bias as catch quotas are typically applied to stocks that are depleted. We address this challenge using the synthetic control method, which estimates the causal effect of catch quotas on fishing mortality and biomass by predicting a synthetic counterfactual outcome. We focus on high seas stocks (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) managed by tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (tRFMOs), first providing an overview of stock status and current management measures in place. We find that implementation of catch quotas by tRFMOs has more than doubled over the past decade. Second, we predict the hypothetical fishing mortality and biomass trajectory for seven high seas quota-managed stocks in absence of a catch quota. These “synthetic non-quota stocks” are predicted using a weighted selection of high seas non-quota stocks. Credibility of the synthetic non-quota stocks is evaluated through diagnostic checks, and robustness tests assess sensitivity to study design. Five credible fishing mortality synthetic controls are predicted: three add support to the hypothesis that catch quotas successfully reduce fishing mortality, while two find that catch quotas increase fishing mortality. While our analysis is limited in scope, given that all seven quota-managed stocks are managed under a single tRFMO, we highlight the potential for the synthetic control method in fisheries management evaluation.     

Rebuilding global fisheries: the World Summit Goal,costs and benefits

Many of the world’s fish stocks are depleted as a result of overexploitation, pollution and habitat loss. The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) sets a target for fisheries to maintain or restore stocks to levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) by 2015. We assessed the global stock status and found that 68% were at or above the MSY level in 2008 and that the 2015 target is unlikely to be met. We compiled data for eight indicators to evaluate the sustainability of fisheries and the gap to meet the WSSD target. These indicators show that the overall condition of global fisheries is declining, long‐term benefits are being compromised, and pressures on fisheries are increasing despite fisheries policy and management actions being taken by coastal States. We develop a bio‐economic model to estimate the costs and benefits of restoring overfished stocks. Our results show that the global fishing capacity needs to be cut by 36–43% from the 2008 level, resulting in the loss of employment of 12–15 million fishers and costing US$96–358 billion for buybacks. On the other hand, meeting the WSSD goal will increase annual fishery production by 16.5 million tonnes, annual rent by US$32 billion and improve biodiversity and functioning of marine ecosystems. However, progress towards rebuilding has been hindered by an unwillingness or inability to accept the short‐term socio‐economic consequences associated with rebuilding fisheries. Thus, there is a pressing need for integration of rebuilding plans into national political and economic decision‐making.     

Management effectiveness of large pelagic fisheries in the high seas

Large pelagic fishes are assessed and managed by tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (tRFMOs). These organizations have been criticized for not meeting conservation objectives, which may relate to aspects of governance and management. No previous studies have systematically evaluated why management performance differs among tRFMOs and among stocks within each tRFMO. In this study, we collected data on the nature of research, management, enforcement and socioeconomics of management systems in the five principal tRFMOs of the world's oceans. We quantified influences of economic and fishery‐related factors on these management characteristics and examined how these factors vary among tRFMOs. We found that tRFMOs with a greater number of member countries, a greater economic dependency on tuna resources, a lower mean per capita gross domestic product, a greater number of fishing vessels and smaller vessels were associated with less intensive research, management and enforcement in these tuna fisheries. We also quantified the influence of specific management attributes and of biological, economic and fishery‐related factors on the trends and current status of large pelagic fish stocks in these regions. The most important factors correlated with trends and current stock status were external to the management systems, and included stock size, age at maturity, ex‐vessel price and economic dependency of countries on tuna fisheries. To improve the overall status of large pelagic fish stocks in the global high seas, more intensive data collection, research and management are needed in certain areas, especially in the Indian Ocean, and for certain stocks, especially non‐target species.     

Estimating trends and magnitudes of bycatch in the tuna fisheries of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean

Minimising the unintended capture of fish, marine mammals, reptiles, seabirds and other marine organisms is an important component of responsible fisheries management and for stabilising declines and rebuilding populations of threatened species. The analyses presented were designed to establish the first quantitative baseline of historical catches, catch rates and species composition for the dominant tuna fisheries operating in the western and central Pacific, the world's largest in terms of tuna catch. Using records from 612,148 fishing events collected by independent ‘at sea’ observers, estimates for finfish, billfish, elasmobranchs, marine mammals and sea turtles show that the composition and magnitude of catches varied considerably by fishery type and practice for the period 2003–2019. Simulations indicated that precision in longline estimates would be improved by monitoring a proportion of fishing sets from all fishing trips rather than full coverage from a proportion of all fishing trips. While attributing reasons for temporal trends in estimated bycatch was difficult due to the confounding impacts of changing abundances and fishing practices, the trends identified the nature of potential relationships for species that are not accurately quantified, or not covered, by fishing vessel logbooks. The trends in catch estimates, and the catch rate models, have utility in identifying species which may require targeted additional analyses and management interventions, including species of conservation interest (either due to their threatened status or vulnerability to fishing) such as elasmobranchs and sea turtles. Moreover, the estimates should support future evaluations of the impact of these industrial-scale fisheries on bycatch species.     

Broadbill swordfish: status of established fisheries and lessons for developing fisheries

Guidelines for the assessment and management of developing swordfish fisheries are derived through an examination of five swordfish fisheries. As they develop, swordfish fisheries may be inclined to local depletion around underwater features, such as seamounts and banks. Few nations have applied the precautionary approach in managing their developing swordfish fisheries. Without controls, swordfish fisheries expand geographically and fishing effort increases, often overshooting optimum levels. However, it is difficult to distinguish clear evidence of fishery collapse; modern longliners harvest widely distributed tuna and swordfish and they are able to relocate to distant areas or switch between target species in response to fluctuations in species abundance and price. Furthermore, the wide distribution of swordfish combined with year‐round spawning and high growth rates amongst juveniles probably contribute to the apparent resilience of swordfish stocks to intensive harvesting. Over half the world’s swordfish catch is taken as an incidental catch of longliners fishing for tuna. In several areas, such as the North Atlantic, catch quotas have sometimes caused tuna longline fishers to discard swordfish. Minimum size limits have also resulted in discarding of swordfish in tuna fisheries and in dedicated swordfish fisheries. In addition to weakening the effectiveness of those management measures, bycatch and discarding add to the complexities of managing swordfish fisheries and to uncertainties in assessing the stocks. Longliners that target swordfish often fish at high latitudes where interactions with marine wildlife, such as seabird, are generally more frequent than at low latitudes. Concern over incidental catches of marine wildlife and other species is becoming a driving force in the management of several swordfish fisheries. Fishery management organisations will need to implement management measures to protect non‐target species and gather reliable data and information on the situation by placing observers on boats fishing for swordfish.     

A scientific alternative to moratoria for rebuilding depleted international tuna stocks

There is considerable international concern and scientific debate about the current state and future of tuna stocks worldwide and the capacity of Regional Fisheries Management Organisations to manage the associated fisheries effectively. In some cases, this concern has extended to predictions of imminent collapse with minimal chances of recovery, even under a commercial catch moratorium. As a viable alternative to a full fishery closure, the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) has adopted a scientifically tested, adaptive rebuilding strategy for the depleted southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) stock. The management procedure (MP) adopted involves a harvest control rule that fully specifies the total allowable catch as a function of key indicators of stock status, adjusting future harvest levels every three years so as to meet the rebuilding targets agreed by CCSBT. It was chosen from a subset of candidate MPs selected following extensive simulation testing. This involved first selecting a wide range of plausible scenarios for stock status and input data, ranging from pessimistic to optimistic, against which the alternative candidate MPs were tested to ensure that they were robust to important uncertainties. This is the first time that a comprehensively evaluated MP has been adopted for an internationally managed tuna stock. Both the process and the outcomes have broad applicability to other internationally managed stocks.     

Just a FAD? Ecosystem impacts of tuna purse‐seine fishing associated with fish aggregating devices in the western Pacific Warm Pool Province

The western and central Pacific Ocean supports the world's largest tuna fisheries. Since the 1990s, the purse‐seine fishery has increasingly fished in association with fish aggregating devices (FADs), which has increased catches of juvenile bigeye and yellowfin tunas and vulnerable bycatch species (e.g., sharks). This has raised concerns regarding the sustainability of these species’ populations and the supporting ecosystem, but may provide improved food security of Pacific Island nations through utilisation of FAD‐associated byproduct species (e.g., wahoo). An ecosystem model of the western Pacific Warm Pool Province was used to explore the potential ecological impacts of varying FAD fishing effort (±50% or 100%) over 30 years. The ecosystem has undergone a significant change in structure since 1980 from heavy exploitation of top predators (e.g., tunas) and “fishing up the food web” of high‐trophic‐level non‐target species. The ecosystem appeared resistant to simulated fishing perturbations, with only modest changes (<10%) in the biomass of most groups, although some less productive shark bycatch species decreased by up to 43%, which had a subsequent positive effect on several byproduct species, the prey of sharks. Reduction of FAD effort by at least 50% was predicted to increase the biomass of tuna species and sharks and return the ecosystem structure to a pre‐industrial‐fishing state within 10 years. Spatial disaggregation of the model and integration of economic information are recommended to better capture ecological and economic changes that may result from fishing and/or climate impacts and to develop appropriate management measures in response.     

Thirty years later: the global growth of ITQs and their influence on stock status in marine fisheries

Individual transferable quota (ITQ) programmes have been incorporated into many marine fisheries management strategies for 30 years, but their implementation and utility remains controversial. This study provides an overview of the global status of ITQ programmes, the reasons they have been adopted and the changes in stock biomass after their implementation. Eighteen countries currently use ITQs to manage several hundred stocks of at least 249 species. ITQs were adopted in these countries for many reasons: overcapitalization, economic gains, safety concerns for fishers and political change. The implementation of ITQs does not translate into consistent changes in stock biomass. Improvements in 12 of 20 stocks after ITQs were introduced suggest that ITQs can be an effective component of fisheries management strategies, but eight of the stocks continued to decline after ITQs were introduced. This suggests that alternative or complementary measures are needed to sustain those fisheries, such as combining ITQs with more effective total allowable catches, better enforcement and monitoring, and implementing aspects of ecosystem-based fisheries management.     

Integrating recreational fisheries data into stock assessment: implications for model performance and subsequent harvest strategies

Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on commercially fished stocks is becoming increasingly relevant for fisheries managers. However, data from recreational fisheries are not commonly included in stock assessments of commercially fished stocks. Simulation models of two assessment methods employed in Australia's Commonwealth fisheries were used to explore how recreational fishery data can be included, and the likely consequences for management. In a data‐poor management strategy for blue eye trevalla, Hyperoglyphe antarctica (Carmichael), temporal trends in recreational catch most affected management outcomes. In a data‐rich age‐structured stock assessment for striped marlin, Kajikia audax (Philippi), estimates of stock status were biased when recreational catches were large or when the recreational fishery targeted different size classes than the commercial fishery and these data were not integrated into the assessment. Including data from recreational fishing can change perceptions of stock status and impact recommendations for harvest strategies and management action. An understanding of recreational fishery dynamics should be prioritised for some species.     

Hawaii longline tuna fishery temporal trends in standardized catch rates and length distributions and effects on pelagic and seamount ecosystems

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Using global catch data for inferences on the world’s marine fisheries

Detailed stock assessments, including the estimation of the absolute biomass of the ‘stocks’ exploited by fisheries, are often viewed as the gold standard for indicators of their status. However, such stock assessments are not available for the overwhelming majority of exploited stocks and fisheries globally. This requires the development, testing and dissemination of other, less data‐demanding indicators for use throughout the world, for example, for comparing the status of fisheries between different maritime countries or large marine ecosystems. Stock status plots, initially developed by staff of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to assess global fisheries, are reviewed here, and their most recent incarnation, which accounts for stock rebuilding, is found to provide a robust overview of fisheries and of the major trends besetting them.     

Which design elements of individual quota fisheries help to achieve management objectives?

Individual quota (IQ) management systems in commercial marine fisheries are highly diverse, differing in the security, durability and exclusivity of the harvesting privilege and the transferability of quota units. This diversity in the degree of harvest rights may influence the effectiveness of IQ fisheries to meet management objectives. We conducted a global meta‐analysis of 167 stocks managed under IQs to test whether the strength of harvest rights impacts the conservation status of stocks in terms of catch, exploitation rate and biomass relative to management targets. We used non‐parametric methods to assess non‐linear relationships and linear regression models to explicitly consider interactions among predictors. Most IQ fisheries consistently met fleet‐wide quota limits (94% of stocks had recent catches below or within 10% of quotas), but only 2/3 of IQ fisheries adhered to sustainable management targets for biomass and exploitation rate (68% of stocks had exploitation rates below or within 10% of targets and 63% of stocks had biomass above or within 10% of biomass targets). Strikingly, when exclusivity of the harvesting privilege was low, exploitation rates depended on whether IQ implementation was industry‐driven (exploitation below targets) or government‐mandated (exploitation above targets). At high levels of exclusivity, exploitation rates converged to just below management targets. Transferability of quota units was associated with stock biomass closer to and slightly above target levels than stocks with non‐transferable quota. However, regional differences had the strongest effect on biomass, suggesting that other management or biological attributes of regional fishery systems have greater influence on marine populations.     

The assessment of fishery status depends on fish habitats

At the crux of the debate over the global sustainability of fisheries is what society must do to prevent over‐exploitation and aid recovery of fisheries that have historically been over‐exploited. The focus of debates has been on controlling fishing pressure, and assessments have not considered that stock production may be affected by changes in fish habitat. Fish habitats are being modified by climate change, built infrastructure, destructive fishing practices and pollution. We conceptualize how the classification of stock status can be biased by habitat change. Habitat loss and degradation can result in either overly optimistic or overly conservative assessment of stock status. The classification of stock status depends on how habitat affects fish demography and what reference points management uses to assess status. Nearly half of the 418 stocks in a global stock assessment database use seagrass, mangroves, coral reefs and macroalgae habitats that have well‐documented trends. There is also considerable circumstantial evidence that habitat change has contributed to over‐exploitation or enhanced production of data‐poor fisheries, like inland and subsistence fisheries. Globally many habitats are in decline, so the role of habitat should be considered when assessing the global status of fisheries. New methods and global databases of habitat trends and use of habitats by fishery species are required to properly attribute causes of decline in fisheries and are likely to raise the profile of habitat protection as an important complementary aim for fisheries management.     

Examining common assumptions about recruitment: a meta‐analysis of recruitment dynamics for worldwide marine fisheries

Assumptions about the future productivity of a stock are necessary to calculate sustainable catches in fisheries management. Fisheries scientists often assume the number of young fish entering a population (recruitment) is related to the biomass of spawning adults and that recruitment dynamics do not change over time. Thus, managers often use a target biomass based on spawning biomass as the basis for calculating sustainable catches. However, we show recruitment and spawning biomass are not positively related over the observed range of stock sizes for 61% of 224 stocks in the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. Furthermore, 85% of stocks for which spawning biomass may not drive recruitment dynamics over the observed ranges exhibit shifts in average recruitment, which is often used in proxies for target biomasses. Our results suggest that the environment more strongly influences recruitment than spawning biomass over the observed stock sizes for many stocks. Management often endeavours to maintain stock sizes within the observed ranges, so methods for setting management targets that include changes within an ecosystem may better define the status of some stocks, particularly as climate changes.     

Assessing the state of Greek marine fisheries resources

Annual fish landings for the Greek seas were analysed for the period 1982–2007 and classified into exploitation categories based on a catch‐based stock classification method. In 2007, about 65% of the Greek stock were characterised as overfished, 32% as fully exploited and only 3% were characterised as developing; collapsed stocks were not recorded. The cumulative percentage of fully exploited and overfished stocks has been increasing over the past 20 years suggesting overexploitation of resources. The results were contrasted against total landings, the fishing‐in‐balance index (FiB) and fishing effort, and some irregularities on the dataset were explained based on current legislation and management measures. A positive correlation between FiB and total fishing effort confirmed the expansion of the Greek fisheries up to 1994, but contraction thereafter. The results suggest that the apparently stable overall catches and decreasing effort may be deceiving, as they hide an underlying pattern of overexploitation in some of the stocks. It was concluded that the Greek fisheries are no longer sustainable and radical management measures are needed.     

Sea cucumber fisheries: global analysis of stocks,management measures and drivers of overfishing

Worldwide, most sea cucumber fisheries are ineffectively managed, leading to declining stocks and potentially eroding the resilience of fisheries. We analyse trends in catches, fishery status, fishing participation and regulatory measures among 77 sea cucumber fisheries through data from recent fishery reports and fishery managers. Critical gaps in fisheries biology knowledge of even commonly targeted species undermine the expected success of management strategies. Most tropical fisheries are small‐scale, older and typified by numerous (>8) species, whereas temperate fisheries are often emerging, mono‐specific and industrialized. Fisher participation data indicated about 3 million sea cucumber fishers worldwide. Fisher participation rates were significantly related to the average annual yield. permanova analysis showed that over‐exploited and depleted fisheries employed different sets of measures than fisheries with healthier stocks, and a non‐metric multidimensional scaling ordination illustrated that a broad set of regulatory measures typified sustainable fisheries. SIMPER and regression tree analyses identified that the dissimilarity was most related to enforcement capacity, number of species harvested, fleet (vessel) controls, limited entry controls and rotational closures. The national Human Development Index was significantly lower in countries with over‐exploited and depleted fisheries. Where possible, managers should limit the number of fishers and vessel size and establish short lists of permissible commercial species in multispecies fisheries. Our findings emphasize an imperative to support the enforcement capacity in low‐income countries, in which risk of biodiversity loss is exceptionally high. Solutions for greater resilience of sea cucumber stocks must be embedded within those for poverty reduction and alternative livelihood options.     

Factors influencing the at-haulback mortality of striped marlin Tetrapturus audax caught by tuna longline fishery in the western Indian Ocean

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Fishing impact and environmental status in European seas: a diagnosis from stock assessments and ecosystem indicators

Stock‐based and ecosystem‐based indicators are used to provide a new diagnosis of the fishing impact and environmental status of European seas. In the seven European marine ecosystems covering the Baltic and the North‐east Atlantic, (i) trends in landings since 1950 were examined; (ii) syntheses of the status and trends in fish stocks were consolidated at the ecosystem level; and (iii) trends in ecosystem indicators based on landings and surveys were analysed. We show that yields began to decrease everywhere (except in the Baltic) from the mid‐1970s, as a result of the over‐exploitation of some major stocks. Fishermen adapted by increasing fishing effort and exploiting a wider part of the ecosystems. This was insufficient to compensate for the decrease in abundance of many stocks, and total landings have halved over the last 30 years. The highest fishing impact took place in the late 1990s, with a clear decrease in stock‐based and ecosystem indicators. In particular, trophic‐based indicators exhibited a continuous decreasing trend in almost all ecosystems. Over the past decade, a decrease in fishing pressure has been observed, the mean fishing mortality rate of assessed stocks being almost halved in all the considered ecosystems, but no clear recovery in the biomass and ecosystem indicators is yet apparent. In addition, the mean recruitment index was shown to decrease by around 50% in all ecosystems (except the Baltic). We conclude that building this kind of diagnosis is a key step on the path to implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.     

基于SPiCT模型对数据有限短生命周期阿根廷滑柔鱼的资源评估

以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)为研究对象,基于连续时间的随机剩余产量模型(a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time,SPiCT),分析了6种方案下参数估计的变化及其对资源评估的影响。对比6种方案中阿根廷滑柔鱼的产量和单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)的估计值与观测值间的最小残差平方和,方案3(设置了K、r、q的先验分布)为最适方案。相应的资源评估结果显示,2010年西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼捕捞死亡系数小于最大持续产量时捕捞死亡系数F_(MSY),渔获量小于最大持续产量MSY,预期平衡生物量EEB大于最大持续产量时的生物量B_(MSY),这表明该资源在2010年尚未被过度开发利用。SPiCT模型综合考虑了环境因子、种群间相互作用和网具选择性等因素引起的观测和过程误差,较S、F-EDSP、S-F-EDSP模型及其他离散模型对数据要求低,计算方法简单,更适合数据有限、短生命周期渔业种类的资源评估。另外,可捕系数q值的设置严重影响了SPiCT模型K、B的估计,优化估计可捕系数q将有利于提高其资源评估的准确性。