Factors associated with the early detection of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

An essential objective of an effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) eradication campaign is to shorten the infectious period by rapidly detecting and destroying cases of disease. The purpose of our investigation was to identify factors associated with the early detection of clinical FMD during the 2001 outbreak in the United Kingdom. We performed a logistic regression analysis, using early versus late detection of disease as the outcome of interest.During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom, infected premises were more likely to be detected early under the following circumstances: 1) cattle (particularly dairy) were infected rather than sheep; 2) a recently confirmed infected premises was within 3 km of the new case; and 3) the case was initially reported by the farmer, rather than a Local Disease Control Centre-initiated surveillance activity (patrol, tracing, pre-emptive cull). Our findings suggest that reporting by farmers and initiatives that increase farmer education and awareness should be encouraged.     

Temporal and geographical distribution of cases of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

Estimates of the likely dates of infection of the early cases of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic indicate that at least 57 premises in 16 counties in Great Britain were infected before the first case was disclosed. Nationwide animal movement controls were imposed within three days of the first case being confirmed on February 20, when FMD was only known to be in two counties, and these controls limited its geographical spread. After the first few cases were confirmed, new cases were rapidly discovered, and the epidemic curve for the daily number of confirmed cases peaked five weeks later, 11 days later than the peak of the curve based on the estimated dates of infection. In the peak week, both curves showed an average daily number of 43 new cases. The estimated dates of infection are believed to be relatively unbiased for the early cases, for which they were derived from a known contact with infection. However, for the later cases they were estimated mainly from the age of the clinical signs of the disease, and were biased by species and other factors, a bias which would probably have made the estimated dates later than was in fact the case.     

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 2: Serosurveillance, and efficiency and effectiveness of control procedures after the national ban on animal movements

After the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland in 2001, serosurveillance of sheep remaining in the 3 km radius Protection Zones around Infected Premises (IPS), and within a 10 km radius of IPS, revealed no evidence of infection. The epidemic was brought under control by a range of traditional techniques: slaughter of all animals on IPS and of veterinary-assessed Dangerous Contacts (DCS), movement restrictions, biosecurity, tracing of potential sources and spread of virus, and surveillance of At-Risk premises. Novel pre-emptive slaughter of FMD-susceptible animals on premises contiguous to IPS, and small ruminants and pigs on premises within 3 km of IPSs, commenced after the epidemic had peaked. Most of the traditional control procedures were undertaken quickly and with appropriate priority. Animals on IPS were usually slaughtered within one day of confirmation, and veterinary-assessed DCS within two days of confirmation of relevant IPS (a median of two days). The pre-emptive contiguous and 3 km culls took somewhat longer (medians of five and 17 days, respectively). IPS were most commonly identified as a result of reporting by farmers or their veterinarians (72 per cent of IPS); veterinary clinical patrols identified 16 per cent, while veterinary assessment of DCS and tracing each identified 5 per cent. No evidence of infection was found on any pre-emptively contiguously culled premises, and IPS were declared only on three 3 km cull premises. The time from estimated first lesion to end of slaughter on an IP was found, by regression analysis, to be a key component in effective control, manifested by a reduction in the estimated dissemination rate (EDR); there was little evidence that the intensity of contiguous culling affected the EDR. Patrols and serological surveillance of residual animals within 10 km of IPS, supported by more extensive evidence from elsewhere in the UK, suggested that cryptic infection in sheep was not widespread. Ultimately, there was insufficient evidence to support the effectiveness of 3 km pre-emptive culling as a control procedure.     

Potential impact of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease into the California State Fair

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if infected livestock had been exhibited at the 2005 California State Fair. DESIGN: Epidemic model. ANIMALS: Dairy cattle, dairy goats, and pygmy goats exhibited between August 24 and August 28 by 195 exhibitors. PROCEDURES: 2 stochastic models were used to simulate epidemics of FMD that might originate from 1, 3, 5, 7, or 10 index cases at the state fair. Data obtained from state fair exhibitors were used to determine the spatial distribution and types of herds to which livestock visiting the state fair returned. RESULTS: Mean estimated numbers of latently infected animals on day 5 were 12.3 and 75.9, respectively, when it was assumed that there were 1 and 10 index cases. Regardless of the number of index cases, mean estimated numbers of subclinically infected and clinically infected animals were low throughout the 5-day study period. Mean estimated duration of the resulting epidemic ranged from 111 to 155 days, mean number of infected premises ranged from 33 to 244, and mean probability that at least 1 animal that became infected with FMD would subsequently leave the state ranged from 28% to 96% as the number of index cases increased from 1 to 10, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggested that following introduction of FMD at the California State Fair, infection would likely go undetected until after animals left the fair and that the subsequent outbreak would spread rapidly.     

Description of recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks in nonendemic areas: exploring the relationship between early detection and epidemic size

The objective of this investigation was to describe the detection of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in nonendemic areas, and to consider how events early in an epidemic influence the epidemic's course. We identified 24 epidemics that occurred between 1992 and 2003 in areas officially considered free of FMD. We obtained information about these epidemics from many sources, including the scientific literature, the grey (non peer-reviewed) literature, and individuals involved with the outbreaks. While most of the epidemics consisted of fewer than 150 infected premises, there were 4 extremely large epidemics, each consisting of more than 2000 infected premises. There was no direct relationship between the time to detection and either the total number of infected premises or the number of animals killed for disease control purposes. We believe that the movement of infected animals through markets was the most critical factor that contributed to the unusual magnitude of the very large epidemics.     

Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals

Spain has been a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free country since 1986. However, the FMD epidemics that recently affected several European Union (EU) member countries demonstrated that the continent is still at high risk for FMD virus (FMDV) introduction, and that the potential consequences of those epidemics are socially and financially devastating. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the risk of FMDV introduction into Spain. Results suggest that provinces in north-eastern Spain are at higher risk for FMDV introduction, that an FMD epidemic in Spain is more likely to occur via the import of pigs than through the import of cattle, sheep, or goats, and that a sixfold increase in the proportion of premises that quarantine pigs prior to their introduction into the operation will reduce the probability of FMDV introduction via import of live pigs into Spain by 50%. Allocation of resources towards surveillance activities in regions and types of operations at high risk for FMDV introduction and into the development of policies to promote quarantine and other biosecurity activities in susceptible operations will decrease the probability of FMD introduction into the country and will strengthen the chances of success of the Spanish FMD prevention program.     

Temporal-spatial epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mongolia, 2000 – 2002

Prior to 2000, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) had not been observed in Mongolia since 1973; however, between April 2000 and July 2002, Mongolia reported 44 FMD outbreaks that affected cattle, sheep, goats, and camels. The objectives of this study were to describe the distributions of the 44 reported FMD outbreaks in Mongolia and to assess their spatial clustering and directions of movement. Official reports were collected to obtain the number and species of animals both affected and at risk, and the date and geographical coordinates of each outbreak. Significant global and local spatial clusters of reported FMD outbreaks were identified. Disease spread during the second epidemic moved 76° northeast and the spread of the disease during the third epidemic moved 110° northwest. FMD outbreaks were clustered intensely close to other FMD-positive counties. These findings can be used in the future to help plan prevention and control measures in high risk areas.     

2020年山东省春季口蹄疫和高致病性禽流感免疫抗体检测

为了解山东省口蹄疫、高致病性禽流感两种重大动物疫病的免疫效果,按照山东省动物疫病监测计划,采集全省98个场(户)2909份血清样品,应用液相阻断ELISA和血凝抑制试验(HI)检测方法进行血清抗体检测.结果显示:O型口蹄疫抗体样品合格率为83.73％,A型口蹄疫为77.5％,高致病性禽流感H5亚型Re-11、H5亚型R...     

Impacts of misclassification on Lyme disease surveillance

In Maryland, Lyme disease (LD) is the most widely reported tickborne disease. All laboratories and healthcare providers are required to report LD cases to the local health department. Given the large volume of LD reports, the nuances of diagnosing and reporting LD, and the effort required for investigations by local health department staff, surveillance for LD is burdensome and subject to underreporting. To determine the degree to which misclassification occurs in Maryland, we reviewed medical records for a sample of LD reports from 2009. We characterized what proportion of suspected and “not a case” reports could be reclassified as confirmed or probable once additional information was obtained from medical record review, explored the reasons for misclassification, and determined multipliers for a more accurate number of LD cases. We reviewed medical records for reports originally classified as suspected (n = 44) and “not a case” (n = 92). Of these 136 records, 31 (23%) suspected cases and “not a case” reports were reclassified. We calculated multipliers and applied them to the case counts from 2009, and estimate an additional 269 confirmed and probable cases, a 13.3% increase. Reasons for misclassification fell into three general categories: lack of clinical or diagnostic information from the provider; surveillance process errors; and incomplete information provided on laboratory reports. These multipliers can be used to calculate a better approximation of the true number of LD cases in Maryland, but these multipliers only account for underreporting due to misclassification, and do not account for cases that are not reported at all (e.g., LD diagnoses based on erythema migrans alone that are not reported) or for cases that are not investigated. Knowing that misclassification of cases occurs during the existing LD surveillance process underscores the complexities of LD surveillance, which further reinforces the need to find alternative approaches to LD surveillance.     

Foot-and-mouth disease in camelids: a review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South American camelids, in dromedaries and Bactrians is reviewed. Recent well-executed experimental studies in New World camels indicate that, although the llama and alpaca can be infected with FMD virus (FMDV) by direct contact, they are not very susceptible and do not pose a risk in transmitting FMD to susceptible animal species. They do not become FMDV carriers. Reports on FMD in dromedaries are, however, conflicting. Serological investigations in Africa and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on thousands of camel sera were negative and experimental infections have been conducted on only a few dromedaries with one serotype and in one country. The design and execution of most of these experiments were poor and therefore the conclusions are questionable. From these investigations, it seems that dromedaries can contract the disease after experimental infection and through close contact with FMD diseased livestock, but do not present a risk in transmitting FMD to susceptible animals. They do not become FMDV carriers. Recent reports from Mongolia describe similar FMD lesions in Bactrian camels. However, so far no samples have tested positive for FMD. To clarify the situation in Bactrians, samples from suspected clinical cases should be tested because other viral vesicular diseases cannot be distinguished from FMD. Thus, further research on the epidemiology of FMD in camelids is necessary. This would include large-scale serological investigations and experimental infections with different FMD serotypes in connection with susceptible contact animals. The Office International des Epizooties (OIE) Code chapter on FMD includes camelids as being susceptible species to FMD, giving the impression that they are similar to cattle, sheep, goats and pigs in their potential involvement in the epidemiology of FMD. This is clearly not the case, and this issue should be re-addressed by the relevant authorities.     

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA - after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban - as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania.     

An evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak reporting in mainland South-East Asia from 2000 to 2010

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is considered to be endemic throughout mainland South-East Asia (SEA). The South-East Asia and China FMD (SEACFMD) campaign is a regional control programme which has been ongoing since 1997. The programme encourages countries to submit reports of outbreaks regularly. This paper evolved from a collaboration with SEACFMD to evaluate 10 years worth of reporting. All publicly available outbreak reports (5237) were extracted from the ASEAN Region Animal Health Information System (ARAHIS) for the period from 2000 to mid 2010. These reports included date, outbreak location (at the province and district level) and serotype (if known) plus information on the outbreak size and affected species. Not all records had complete information on the population at-risk or the number of animals affected. This data was transferred into a spatially enabled database (along with data from other sources) and analysed using R and SaTScan. Outbreak serotype was unknown in 2264 (43%) of reports and some countries had very few laboratory confirmed cases (range <1-86%). Outbreak reports were standardised by number of villages in each province. Outbreak intensity varied however there did not appear to be a consistent pattern, nor was there any seasonal trend in outbreaks. Spatial and spatio-temporal cluster detection methods were applied. These identified significant clusters of disease reports. FMD is endemic across the region but is not uniformly present. ARAHIS reports can be regarded as indicators of disease reporting: there may be reports in which laboratory confirmation has not occurred, and in some cases clinical signs are inconsistent with FMD. This raises questions about the specificity of the data. Advances in decentralised testing techniques offer hope for improved verification of FMD as the cause of disease outbreaks. Advances in molecular typing may provide a substantial leap forward in understanding the circulation of FMD in South East Asia.     

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.     

Identification of case clusters and counties with high infective connectivity in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Uruguay

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of individual spatial units (ie, counties) on the epidemic spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 163 counties in Uruguay where there was an outbreak of FMD between April 23 and July 11, 2001. PROCEDURE: A geographically referenced database was created, and the distance between counties (13,203 county pairs), road density of counties (163 counties), and time when cases were reported in those counties (11 weeks of the epidemic) were considered to assess global spatial and spatial-temporal autocorrelation, determine the contribution of links connecting pairs of counties with infected animals, and allow us to hypothesize the influence for spread during the epidemic for counties with greater than the mean infective link contributions. RESULTS: Case clusters were indicated by the Moran Iand Mantel tests during the first 6 weeks of the epidemic. Spatial lags between pairs of counties with infected animals revealed case clustering before and after vaccination was implemented. Temporal lags predicted autocorrelation for up to 3 weeks. Link indices identified counties expected to facilitate epidemic spread. If control measures had been implemented in counties with a high index link (identifiable as early as week 1 of the epidemic), they could have prevented (by week 11 of the epidemic) at least 2.5 times as many cases per square kilometer than the same measures implemented in counties with average link indices. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis of spatial autocorrelation and infective link indices may identify network conditions that facilitate (or prevent) disease spread.     

Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.     

A retrospective study on the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in Bhutan

A retrospective study on the outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Bhutan, between the years 1996 and 2008, based on the data collected through passive surveillance, was undertaken. A total of 230 outbreaks of FMD at sub-district level were recorded in 299 villages located in 19 out of the 20 districts in the country. There were no significant differences between the years (P = 0.998) or months (P = 0.989) on the incidence of FMD. The sub-districts in the north (altitude >1,000 m above mean sea level) had significantly (P = 0.008) higher incidences of outbreaks in winter than in summer. The sub-districts that shared border with India had significantly more outbreaks than those that didn't (P = 0.001). Cattle were the most predominant species affected being involved in all of the outbreaks reported. Serotype O, which constituted 70.6% of the outbreaks typed was the most predominant serotype prevalent in Bhutan followed by A (16.7%), Asia 1 (8.8%), and C (3.9%). Cattle density was significantly positively correlated (P = 0.023) with the incidence of disease. Three waves of outbreaks of epidemic proportions were reported in 1997/1998, 2002/2003, and 2007/2008 due to the PanAsia strain of the O serotype. The study highlights the incursion of the PanAsia strain of the O serotype into the country, possibly, through the transboundary movement of animals and the need for active surveillance of FMD, especially at the border areas. The study also highlights the significance of the O serotype and cattle as the main indicator species in the epidemiology of FMD in Bhutan. The findings from this study can be used as baseline epidemiological data for further research to understand the epidemiology of FMD in Bhutan.     

Molecular epidemiological studies on foot-and-mouth disease type O Taiwan viruses from the 1997 epidemic

Sequence diversity was assessed of the complete VP1 gene directly amplified from 49 clinical specimens during an explosive foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Taiwan. Type O Taiwan FMD viruses are genetically highly homogenous, as seen by the minute divergence of 0.2-0.9% revealed in 20 variants. The O/HCP-0314/TW/97 and O/TCP-022/TW/97 viral variants dominated FMD outbreaks and were prevalent in most affected pig-raising areas. Comparison of deduced amino acid sequences around the main neutralizable antigenic sites on the VP1 polypeptide showed no significant antigenic variation. However, the O/CHP-158/TW/97 variant had an alternative critical residue at position 43 in antigenic site 3, which may be due to selective pressure in the field. Two vaccine production strains (O1/Manisa/Turkey/69 and O1/Campos/Brazil/71) probably provide partial heterologous protection of swine against O Taiwan viruses. The type O Taiwan variants clustered in sublineage A1 of four main lineages in the phylogenetic tree. The O/Hong Kong/9/94 and O/1685/Moscow/Russia/95 viruses in sublineage A2 are closely related to the O Taiwan variants. The causative agent for the 1997 epidemic presumably originated from a single common source of type O FMD viruses prevalent in neighboring areas.