Analysis on Seismic Robustness of Urban Water SupplySystem Based on Disaster Resilience

Based on the concept and characteristics of disaster resilience, technical robustness and organizational robustness were discussed by updating trunk lines of urban water supply system for two different earthquake magnitudes, M 6.5 and M 7.0 respectively, where lifeline earthquake loss model was taken as a starting point. Monte Carlo based GIRAFFE model was adopted in this research. Result shows that retrofit of trunk lines is helpful for both technical robustness and organizational robustness, and the updating effect would become more significant as the earthquake magnitude increases. Furthermore, criticalness of pipelines is not determined by the earthquake magnitude, but as time goes it depends on their respective locations in the system and system configuration. At the moment instantly after earthquake, the pipelines which are located at the center of system would be more critical; while 24 hours later, the pipelines which are closer to the reservoir will become more critical.     

Building Damage in Mianyang City Caused by the May 12, 2008 Earthquake in Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, P. R. China

Summarizing building damage in all previous large earthquakes is an important approach to promote the development of structural seismic design. We conducted a statistical analysis of the earthquake damage to various buildings in Mianyang city, Sichuan province, P. R. China. This analysis was based on the emergency assessment and investigation of building damage in Mianyang city caused by the large earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008 in Wenchuan. We also summarize the damage characteristics of different buildings and the lessons learned. We present the following findings and suggestions for structural seismic design:(1)Buildings in Mianyang designed according to current seismic code withstood the rare earthquake.(2)Different structural systems have obviously varied seismic behaviors. (3)Old buildings always have been the weak links in earthquakes, and should be evaluated and strengthened selectively after an earthquake.(4)Studies of anti cracking measures for masonry walls should be conducted. (5)Effective measures should be taken to reduce earthquake damage to non structural components, for example, infill walls in frames.(6)Seismic design methods and construction measures for stairs should be studied.     

城市防灾避险绿地系统的构建

城市防灾避险绿地系统构建是城市绿地系统规划的重要内容。宏观上要在城乡总体规划的框架内,在城市抗震防灾等规划的指导下,构建与城市绿地系统规划空间层次相互衔接、逐级控制的防灾避险绿地规划体系;中观上要根据避险时序及空间关系等要素,对避险绿地、绿色疏散通道、隔离缓冲绿带等各级防灾避险绿地进行定量定位的合理布局;微观上要对每一块避险绿地、绿色疏散通道、隔离缓冲绿带进行深入与细化设计,共同构筑结构合理、层次清晰、分布均衡的城市防灾避险绿地体系。     

Analysis of the Medium Pressure Range in Urban Gas Transmission and Distribution System

According to the analysis of technology and economy about the gas supply with the medium pressure in gas pipeline network of urban gas transmission and distribution system,a more economical and feasible pressure value is obtained.     

极端气候事件对1978—2017年广西农作物的灾损影响

为了降低极端气候事件对农作物产量与经济的损失,本文基于灾害学理论,运用数理统计的趋势分析等方法,分析了1978—2017年旱灾、水灾、风雹灾与低温成灾4种极端气候事件对广西区农作物成灾、受灾面积的影响。并用极端气候事件的气候因素响应频率来近似代替一定区域极端气候发生的概率,结合1978—2017年4种极端气候事件灾损评估,对广西区旱灾、水灾、风雹灾与低温成灾进行时空分析,揭示其时空变化趋势。结果表明:（1）研究期内,广西区农作物因灾致损程度为:旱灾>水灾>低温成灾>风雹灾;（2）广西区由旱灾引起的农作物受灾面积与成灾面积呈下降趋势,因灾致损严重区域由中部与西部逐步变化至西南部与东北部;（3）广西区由水灾引起的农作物受灾面积与成灾面积变化呈上升趋势,因灾致损严重区域由南部向中西部逐渐变化;（4）广西区由风雹灾引起的农作物受灾面积与成灾面积变化呈下降趋势,因灾致损严重区域由北部与南部向中部与南部逐渐变化;（5）广西区由低温成灾引起的农作物受灾面积与成灾面积变化呈上升趋势,因灾致损严重区域主要集中在北部。     

Probabilistic Seismic Damage Analysis of Inelastic Structural System

A novel numerical model for seismic damage analysis of inelastic two degree of freedom (2DOF) system under bi directional excitations was developed by taking the strength degradation, stiffness deterioration and pinching effect into account. The influences of bidirectional excitations, strength degradation, stiffness deterioration and pinching effect on statistical characteristics of seismic damage index of inelastic 2DOF system were investigated using 69 selected earthquake records. The results show that seismic damage index of inelastic 2DOF system can be described as either the Lognormal or the Frechet distribution variable; the seismic damage index of inelastic 2DOF system can be approximated by the square root of sum of square (SRSS) of seismic damage index of single degree of freedom (SDOF) system; an decrease in post yielding stiffness or consideration of strength degradation, stiffness deterioration and pinching effect may increase the seismic damage index remarkably.     

基于主成分分析的湖北省洪涝灾害风险评估模型构建

湖北省历年由洪涝灾害造成农作物受损严重,对湖北省进行洪涝风险评估十分必要。本文提出了一种定量化风险评估的模型建立方法,通过多源数据（气象、社会经济、地理特征等数据）提取到15个指标,采取主成分分析法确定各因子对于洪涝灾害的影响权重,建立风险评估模型,并运用地理信息系统(GIS)分析技术得出洪涝灾害风险区划图。在现有评估指标体系的基础上,通过网络爬虫方式获取更能反映防减灾能力的灾害应急指标;采用主成分分析方法降低模型建立中的主观因素。结果表明：（1）通过模型得到降雨与地势为湖北省洪灾发生的最主要因素;（2）湖北省中东部地区多为高风险区,其中东部武汉、黄石等长江干流途经地区处于重风险区;西南部多为中风险区,西北部在全省为低风险区。综上,该模型可为湖北省开展综合减灾、调整区域可持续发展结构、进行准确农情监测提供科学支撑和决策依据,具有重要的科学和实践意义。     

基于GIS的洪灾损失评估方法

洪灾损失评估是防洪减灾领域的一项基础性工作。笔者在国内外洪灾损失评估信息系统研究的基础上，对现有的洪灾损失评估方法进行了探讨，论述了GIS技术在洪灾损失评估中的应用、特点及作用等，并提出了洪灾损失评估有待解决的问题及未来发展趋势，为科学、有效的采取防洪减灾措施提供一定的参考依据。     

关中西部农村居民地震灾害认知与响应研究-以宝鸡市陈仓区为例

为制定农村防震减灾相关政策并为其提供实证依据。采用问卷调查和比较分析的方法,对宝鸡市陈仓区农村居民的地震灾害认知与响应进行调查研究。结果表明：(1)居民地震灾害知识的准确性和深度不够,防震减灾技能掌握不足;(2)居民有一定的自救互救意识,但主动性和组织性较差,地震谣言辨别能力不强;(3)居民地震灾害认知与响应的总体水平不够理想,其中防震减灾技能最差,自救互救实况最好。表明开展地震灾害知识普及、防震减灾技能培训和地震信息甄别工作是增强农村地区防震减灾综合能力的有效途径。     

基于GIS的吉林省霜冻灾害风险评估及区划

旨在依据灾害风险理论,对吉林省霜冻灾害进行风险评估与区划,以期减轻吉林省霜冻灾害造成的损失,为农业生产合理布局提供科学依据。基于吉林省逐日地表最低温度、霜冻灾情及作物种植面积等资料,采用自然灾害风险指数法、层次分析法和加权综合评价法,对致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性指数进行评估,基于GIS进行吉林省霜冻灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：吉林省霜冻可划分为高、次高、中、次低和低风险区5个等级,初霜冻高风险和次高风险区主要分布在西北部白城、中部长春、吉林和四平部分地区;终霜冻高风险和次高风险区主要分布在中部长春、吉林和延边部分地区。初、终霜冻风险区划结果与灾情统计结果均呈极显著正相关关系,相关系数分别达0.496和0.490(P<0.01)。本研究建立的吉林省霜冻风险评估模型,能够反映吉林省初、终霜冻的风险分布特征,初、终霜冻风险区划结果存在空间分布差异;经验证风险区划结果与历史灾情资料相符。在气候变暖背景下,吉林省霜冻灾害仍需重视。     

Analysis of the Optimal Effect Radius of Regulator Station in Urban Gas Distribution Network with Medium Pressure

In urban gas network with multiple pressure ranges, there is an optimal effect radius, for which the annual calculating cost is minimal. According to the analysis of technology and economy about the gas supply with the medium pressure in urban gas transmission and distribution system, the optimal effect radius of regulator station in medium pressure gas network has been obtained.     

屯溪区应急避难绿地规划设计的研究

摘 要：在城市各类防灾系统中,应急避难绿地是一种既能为城市提供自然空间又有助于防灾救援的有效手段。通过对应急避难绿地的概念及其建设条件等内容的分析,结合黄山市屯溪区规划布局特点、灾害类型以及城区防灾避难工作现状调查,提出建立屯溪区绿地避难场所的必要性和规划设计建议。     

论新农村建设之雷电灾害预警与公共管理

【摘要】：本文首先通过对雷电灾害的成因及其影响的分析,阐明了伴随新农村建设,尤其是新村集镇、乡镇企业规模的迅速发展,雷电灾害造成的损失和社会影响将越趋严重。进而在雷电灾害预警机制的设计上,提出具体的预警方案和应急响应步骤。基于公共管理理念,认为气象机构作为政府危机管理部门之一,必须根据科学性、合法性、适度性和协同性等原则,建构完善的包括雷电预警在内的农村气象灾害预报预警体系。文章强调指出,《气象灾害防御条例》应尽快立法实施,必须以气象为主体统一规范雷电探测网的布局,在更高层次上统筹规划建设雷电综合监测系统,这是落实“公共气象、安全气象”理念、增强乡村防灾减灾整体能力的具体贡献。     

黑龙江省主要农业气象灾害时序特征及其对大豆产量影响的灰色关联分析

为了探讨黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆产量的影响,基于1974—2016年黑龙江省农业气象灾害以及大豆产量的数据,采用数理统计方法,分析黑龙江省农业气象灾害和大豆产量时序变化特征。建立基于灰色关联分析法的数理模型,引入受灾范围和灾害强度构建受灾比率,以1998年为节点,将研究期划分为1982—1998年和1999—2016年2个阶段进行研究。结果表明:黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆生产存在负面影响;无论是受灾范围还是受灾强度,干旱都是第1阶段（1982—1998年）黑龙江省大豆生产的关键农业气象灾害;第2阶段（1999—2016年）洪涝灾害对灾害范围影响大,风雹对受灾强度影响大。第1阶段（1982—1998年）是大豆受灾严重的时期,4类灾害对大豆的总产和单产的影响都很大。在第2阶段（1999—2016年）,4类灾害对大豆单产的影响大于对总产的影响。     

Coal and gas outburst disaster early warning andemergency response decision support technology

In order to realize early warning of coal and gas outbursts, and take timely emergency response, the technology of coal and gas outburst early warning and emergency response decision support is brought forward. The characteristics of abnormal gas outburst are specially analyzed, thus methods are given to monitor and identify the coal and gas outburst disaster. Combined with existing safety monitoring system in the mine, researches of such techniques are carried out as outburst gas content predicting, spread range forecasting and regions of power cutoff. Through those techniques, the Daping coal mine gas explosion disaster is retrieved. In the process of simulation, gas spreading early warning and related emergency response proposals can be issued before the gas arrive.     

基于GIS的菏泽市高温灾害风险评估与区划

为了研究菏泽市各个区县高温灾害风险的分布状况,选取菏泽市8 县1 区的1970—2014 年地面气象观测站的气温数据,以≥35℃的年高温日数和年极端最高气温为指标,分析高温天气的基本特征。利用高温灾害风险指数法、专家打分法、层次分析法、加权综合评分法,选取适当的指标。结合GIS 系统,在全面考虑致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体的易损性以及防灾减灾能力等因素,得出了菏泽市高温灾害风险区划图。结果表明：菏泽市的高温灾害高风险区主要分布在东明县、曹县和成武县;巨野县和单县为低风险区,其他县区为中等风险区。这就为菏泽市高温灾害的防御提供了科技支撑和理论支持。     

黑龙江省水稻生长季极端降水及洪涝时空演变特征

为了合理规避极端降水带来的洪涝灾害,有效保障水稻安全生产。本研究基于黑龙江省69个气象台站1971—2016年降水资料和历史洪涝记载资料,利用方差分析和Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析了黑龙江省水稻生长季极端降水和洪涝时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）极端降水指数(EPI)5月、6月和9月在2010s最突出,7月和10月在1990s最突出,8月在1980s最突出;（2）根据典型因子,7月多雨时段为1990s,8月多雨时段为1980s;（3）水稻洪涝多发生在7月,7月和8月水稻洪涝历史高发时段分别为1990s和1980s。     

Worlding aspirations and resilient futures: Framings of risk and contemporary city‐making in Metro Cebu,the Philippines

In the Philippines, calls for creating ‘global’, ‘sustainable’ and ‘resilient’ cities are placing urban poor communities in increasingly precarious positions. These communities have long been the targets of urban development and ‘modernisation’ efforts; more recently the erasure of informal settlements from Philippine cities is being bolstered at the behest of climate change adaptation and disaster risk management (DRM) agendas. In Metro Cebu, flood management has been at the heart of DRM and broader urban development discussions, and is serving as justification for the demolition and displacement of informal settler communities in areas classed as ‘danger zones’. Using Kusno's (2010) interpretation of the ‘exemplary centre’ as a point of departure, this paper interrogates the relationship between DRM, worlding aspirations (Roy and Ong, 2011) and market‐oriented urbanisation in Cebu, and considers the socio‐spatial implications of these intersecting processes for urban poor communities. Through analysing the contradictions inherent in framings of certain bodies and spaces as being ‘of risk’ or ‘at risk’ over others, I argue that the epistemologies of modernity, disaster risk and resilience endorsed and propagated by the state are facilitating processes of displacement and dispossession that serve elite commercial interests under the auspices of disaster resilience and pro‐poor development.     

河北省大风灾害及其危险性区划统计分析

为了研究河北省大风灾害特征及其危险性区划,笔者利用河北省1983—2011 年各地区县市统计年鉴、大风灾情数据以及气象站风速数据,基于灾度和危险度2 个指标,对致灾性大风时空分布、大风灾害特征和危险度进行研究。结果表明,河北省致灾性大风地理分布主要有2 个中心,分别位于冀北高原张家口地区和沿海沧州地区,春季频率最高;河北省各地区均有风灾事件发生,受灾情况属于轻灾,即为县级为主管单位进行救灾;结合致灾因子（致灾指数）和承灾体（风灾承灾指数）,利用风灾危险度评价模 型,得出河北省存在14 个风灾极重度危险地区。风灾危险性与致灾因子分布不一致,表明危险性评价需要结合承灾体因素;在常用风灾危险性Dx的评价中,需要结合更多与风灾相关的承灾体参数,提高承灾体部分对危险性影响的比重。     

ANN Disaster Identifying of Wujiawan Landslide in Wanzhou Urban

The paper aims at ANN disaster-possibility identifying of Wujiawan Landslide. ANN construction and parameter setup are analyzed for landslide disaster identifying by ANN, based on a typical landslide-Wujiawan landslide in Wanzhou urban, by confirming evaluation factor and establishing sample data. The ANN model is trained by the similar landslide sample in Wanzhou urban, then the disaster is identified in several different conditions of Wujiawan landslide. Finally, the same conclusion are found by analyzing combined ANN Disaster-Identifying and limit-equilibrium-method calculation. The results show that AAN is accurate and satisfied to be used landslide disaster-possibility identifying.