基于小波神经网络和BP神经网络的麦蚜发生期预测对比（英文）

为建立更准确、稳定的病虫害预测预报模型,减少农作物病虫害损失、提高农作物产量与质量,运用主成分分析法从42个基础气象因子中整合形成8个新的自变量输入模型,采用试凑法对网络关键参数进行筛选,用2002—2011年数据进行网络训练,建立了以Morlet小波函数为传递函数的小波神经网络模型,并与以Sigmoid函数为传递函数的BP神经网络模型进行了比较。在小波神经网络训练过程中,有6年拟合精度在90%以上,平均拟合精度为89%,预测结果 MAPE值为4.1939,MSE值为5.9764;在BP神经网络的训练过程中,有4年拟合精度超过90%,平均拟合精度仅为81.07%,预测结果中MAPE值为6.4694,MSE值为8.2457。从训练结果看,小波神经网络更能准确描述麦蚜发生期的变化规律,其拟合能力较BP神经网络好;从预测精度和模型的稳定性来看,小波神经网络好于BP神经网络。     

基于小波神经网络和BP神经网络的麦蚜发生期预测对比

为建立更准确、稳定的病虫害预测预报模型,减少农作物病虫害损失、提高农作物产量与质量,运用主成分分析法从42个基础气象因子中整合形成8个新的自变量输入模型,采用试凑法对网络关键参数进行筛选,用2002-2011年数据进行网络训练,建立了以Morlet小波函数为传递函数的小波神经网络模型,并与以Sigmoid函数为传递函数的BP神经网络模型进行了比较.在小波神经网络训练过程中,有6年拟合精度在90％以上,平均拟合精度为89％,预测结果MAPE值为4.1939,MSE值为5.9764;在BP神经网络的训练过程中,有4年拟合精度超过90％,平均拟合精度仅为81.07％,预测结果中MAPE值为6.4694,MSE值为8.2457.从训练结果看,小波神经网络更能准确描述麦蚜发生期的变化规律,其拟合能力较BP神经网络好;从预测精度和模型的稳定性来看,小波神经网络好于BP神经网络.     

基于BP神经网络的太阳辐射预测——以兰州市为例

采用常规气象观测资料建立了兰州市太阳总辐射BP神经网络预测模型,利用神经网络释义图和连接权法剔除了模型中的冗余变量,用优化的BP网络模型预测了兰州市1996-2000年的太阳辐射,并用实测数据验证了该模型。结果表明:该方法增加了模型的透明度,提高了模型的可靠性和鲁棒性,模拟结果与实测值非常吻合,模拟值的各项误差指标值均很小,模拟值与实测值的拟合优度R2达到0.987,通过与其他经验模型的模拟结果进行对比,优化的BP网络模型的模拟效果最好,精度明显高于其它经验模型。因此,对于无太阳辐射观测的地区,优化后的BP网络模型是预测当地太阳辐射的一种有效方法。     

基于高光谱的区域土壤质地预测模型建立与评价——以河套灌区解放闸灌域为例

为了运用光谱反射率快速确定土壤质地,对河套灌区6种不同类型土壤质地在室内进行光谱反射率测试,分别运用一元线性回归、逐步多元回归及BP神经网络三种方法建立光谱反射率与土壤砂粒含量及粉粒含量的拟合模型,并利用估测数据对样品进行土壤质地的模拟。结果显示:三种预测模型精度及其预测能力均较为满意,其中BP神经网络的拟合效果最好,砂粒,粉粒估测模型的决定系数R2均为0.86,外部检验决定系数R2分别为0.88,0.90。利用BP神经网络预测得出的粒径含量对样本质地重新判定,发现达到91.74%的样本符合类别分类要求。研究结果为利用高光谱图像大范围确定土壤质地奠定了基础,对于未来区域模型模拟和土壤水力参数推求具有重要指导意义和应用价值。     

GA-BP组合预测方法在北洛河年径流量预测中的应用

为寻求较为合理的径流量预测方法,利用GA-BP组合模型进行径流量预测的研究,首先利用GA算法(Genetic algorithm)全局搜索能力定位出一个较好的搜索空间,再利用BP算法(Back propagation)神经网络的局部寻优能力,以陕西省北洛河状头站实测数据为基础进行径流量预测。结果表明：利用GA-BP组合模型预测2001—2010年结果的相对误差分别为-8.9%、-12.6%、-7.4%、9.4%、-7.6%、15.0%、-5.5%、10.7%、13.3%和-8.2%,预测精度较高,从相对误差和训练次数比较可以看出,GA-BP组合模型优于基本BP模型和GA模型。     

西北地区小麦黄矮病流行分析及人工神经网络模型的构建

对西北地区半干旱气候区小麦黄矮病1992—2009年发生、流行情况进行长期监测、分析,选择制约小麦黄矮病发生、流行的23个因素,利用三层人工神经网络可以逼近任意连续函数,对非线性预测系统进行模拟处理的特点,分析所选预测分子,提出一套完整的建立BP人工神经网络模型的方法,并建立陕西省BP神经网络长期预测模型。对1992—2006年数据进行网络训练,利用2007—2009年数据进行测试。结果表明,以发病率为指标,输出结果误差在0.001~0.034之间;以发病级别作为预测结果,模型计算得出的数值与实际病级完全吻合,准确率为100%。说明利用神经网络建立小麦黄矮病预测模型是可行的。     

和田绿洲洛浦灌区地下水动态变化规律分析与模拟

分析了塔里木盆地南缘和田绿洲洛浦灌区地下水位较高的成因,研究了灌区地下水位年内的动态变化规律,利用小波分析的多分辨率功能和人工神经网络的非线性逼近功能,建立了基于小波变换和BP神经网络的地下水埋深动态预测小波神经网络模型。结果表明:灌区地下水位变化具有周期性、季节性的特点,并且可以被小波神经网络模型准确地模拟,模型预测洛浦灌区在未来几年内地下水位会持续上升,年平均升幅为0.1 m左右,因此当地应加强地下水的科学管理。     

基于BP神经网络模型的三江平原湿地面积预测研究

以相关资料和文献中1950-2009年的数据为依据,利用相关分析、灰色预测方法和BP神经网络模型,定量分析了三江平原湿地面积变化的影响因素,并对未来20年三江平原的湿地面积进行预测。结果表明,耕地面积、年均气温、人口数量、径流深度、相对湿度、年降水量、政策因子与湿地面积变化关系密切,可以作为BP神经网络模型的预测变量。BP神经网络模型预测2010s三江平原的湿地面积为58.58万hm2,2020s为45.86万hm2,湿地面积在未来一段时间还有减少的趋势,但减少趋势明显减缓。     

BP神经网络和多元线性回归在粮食产量空间分布预测中的比较

根据2011年河北省92个平原县粮食产量数据,按农业生产过程和需求确定自然和经济两大类影响因素共8个指标。根据逐步多元线性回归进行回归建模,并运用BP神经网络建立影响因素和粮食产量的网络模型。对比两种模型的拟合效果,BP神经网络模型在精度、稳定性、泛化度和理论基础上都要优于线性回归模型,可用于时空混合的空间预测。最后根据可估相关因子的变化代入BP模型对2015年粮食产量进行空间预测。从多角度说明了BP神经网络在空间分布预测中的优势性。     

组合灰色预测模型在入库流量预测中的应用

本文将灰色GM(1,1)模型、BP人工神经网络和马尔柯夫链相结合,利用历年入库流量及千河径流量建立组合模型对入库流量进行预测。GM(1,1)模型主要预测趋势,其前半部分与实测值拟合较好,BP神经网络模型后半部有波动部分与实测值拟合较好,二者结合使相对误差最小建立组合模型,同时运用马尔柯夫链预测入库流量的变化范围。预测2001和2002年的入库流量对模型进行检验:GM(1,1)模型预测的相对误差分别为0.359和-0.017;BP神经网络预测的相对误差分别为0.032和-0.251,组合模型相对误差分别为0.164和0.117,组合预测值在预测区间之内,该组合模型预测结果合理有效,能更精确预测冯家山水库入库流量。     

Dermestid beetles in ‘evolution Canyon’, lower Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, including new records for Israel

Fifteen species of dermestid beetles were recorded at ‘Evolution Canyon’ (EC), Lower Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel. They represent ~35% of known Israeli dermestid species. The following three species were recorded for the first time in Israel:Trogoderma svriaca Dalla Torre, 1911;Ctesias svriaca Ganglbauer, 1904; andAnthrenus (s.str.) jordaniens Pic, 1934. Adults of 13 species were collected on the more solar radiated, warmer and climatically more fluctuating south-facing slope (SFS); ten species were collected on the opposite, north-facing slope (NFS), which was cooler and climatically more stable. The abundance of adult dermestid beetles was 1.9 times higher on the SFS than on the NFS (86 and 47, respectively). Species richness and abundance distribution at EC (three collecting stations on each slope and one at the valley bottom) were significantly negatively correlated with the plant cover that consisted of trees and bushes (Spearmanr _s ,P=0.007 and 0.039, respectively) and perennials (Spearmanr _s ,P=0.039 and 0.077, respectively), indicating that non-woody plants were preferred by adult dermestid beetles.     

Hymenopteran Parasitoids on Fruit-infesting Tephritidae (Diptera) in Latin America and the Southern United States: Diversity, Distribution, Taxonomic Status and their use in Fruit Fly Biological Control

We first discuss the diversity of fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) parasitoids (Hymenoptera) of the Neotropics. Even though the emphasis is on Anastrepha parasitoids, we also review all the information available on parasitoids attacking flies in the genera Ceratitis, Rhagoletis, Rhagoletotrypeta, Toxotrypana and Zonosemata. We center our analysis in parasitoid guilds, parasitoid assemblage size and fly host profiles. We also discuss distribution patterns and the taxonomic status of all known Anastrepha parasitoids. We follow by providing a historical overview of biological control of pestiferous tephritids in Latin American and Florida (U.S.A.) and by analyzing the success or failure of classical and augmentative biological control programs implemented to date in these regions. We also discuss the lack of success of introductions of exotic fruit fly parasitoids in various Latin American countries. We finish by discussing the most pressing needs related to fruit fly biological control (classical, augmentative, and conservation modalities) in areas of the Neotropics where fruit fly populations severely restrict the development of commercial fruit growing. We also address the need for much more intensive research on the bioecology of native fruit fly parasitoids.     

Diagnostics,genetic diversity and pathogenic variation of ascochyta blight of cool season food and feed legumes

Molecular diagnostic techniques have been developed to differentiate the Ascochyta pathogens that infect cool season food and feed legumes, as well as to improve the sensitivity of detecting latent infection in plant tissues. A seed sampling technique was developed to detect a 1% level of infection by Ascochyta rabiei in commercial chickpea seed. The Ascochyta pathogens were shown to be genetically diverse in countries where the pathogen and host have coexisted for a long time. However, where the pathogen was recently introduced, such as A. rabiei to Australia, the level of diversity remained relatively low, even as the pathogen spread to all chickpea-growing areas. Pathogenic variability of A. rabiei and Ascochyta pinodes pathogens in chickpea and field pea respectively, appears to be quantitative, where measures of disease severity were based on aggressiveness (quantitative level of infection) rather than on true qualitative virulence. In contrast, qualitative differences in pathogenicity in lentil and faba bean genotypes indicated the existence of pathotypes of Ascochyta lentis and Ascochyta fabae. Therefore, reports of pathotype discrimination based on quantitative differences in pathogenicity in a set of specific genotypes is questionable for several of the ascochyta-legume pathosystems such as A. rabiei and A. pinodes. This is not surprising since host resistance to these pathogens has been reported to be mainly quantitative, making it difficult for the pathogen to overcome specific resistance genes and form pathotypes. For robust pathogenicity assessment, there needs to be consistency in selection of differential host genotypes, screening conditions and disease evaluation techniques for each of the Ascochyta sp. in legume-growing countries throughout the world. Nevertheless, knowledge of pathotype diversity and aggressiveness within populations is important in the selection of resistant genotypes.     

Brief Guide for Authors

正Journal of Arid Land(JAL)is an international journal(ISSN 1674-6767;CN 65-1278/K)for the natural sciences,sponsored by the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press.It is published by Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg bimonthly.JAL publishes original,innovative,and integrative research from arid and semiarid regions,ad     

Epidemiology of Toxigenic Fungi and their Associated Mycotoxins for Some Mediterranean Crops

Recent data on the epidemiology of the common mycotoxigenic species of Fusarium, Alternaria, Aspergillus and Penicillium in infected or colonized plants, and in stored or processed plant products from the Mediterranean area are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on the toxigenicity of the causal fungal species and the natural occurrence of well known mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxins, fumonisins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, patulin, Alternaria-toxins and moniliformin), as well as some more recently described compounds (fusaproliferin, beauvericin) whose toxigenic potential is not yet well understood. Several Fusarium species reported from throughout the Mediterranean area are responsible of the formation of mycotoxins in infected plants and in plant products, including: Fusarium graminearum, F. culmorum, F. cerealis, F. avenaceum, F. sporotrichioides and F. poae, which produce deoxynivalenol, nivalenol, fusarenone, zearalenone, moniliformin, and T-2 toxin derivatives in wheat and other small grains affected by head blight or scab, and in maize affected by red ear rot. Moreover, strains of F. verticillioides, F. proliferatum, and F. subglutinans, that form fumonisins, beauvericin, fusaproliferin, and moniliformin, are commonly associated with maize affected by ear rot. Fumonisins, were also associated with Fusarium crown and root rot of asparagus and Fusarium endosepsis of figs, caused primarily by F. proliferatum. Toxigenic A. alternata strains and associated tenuazonic acid and alternariols were commonly found in black mould of tomato, black rot of olive and citrus, black point of small cereals, and black mould of several vegetables. Toxigenic strains of A. carbonarius and ochratoxin A were often found associated with black rot of grapes, whereas toxigenic strains of A. flavus and/or P. verrucosum, forming aflatoxins and ochratoxin A, respectively, were found in moulded plant products from small cereals, peanuts, figs, pea, oilseed rape, sunflower seeds, sesame seeds, pistachios, and almonds. Finally, toxigenic strains of P. expansum and patulin were frequently found in apple, pear and other fresh fruits affected by blue mould rot, as well as in derived juices and jams.     

A survey of the genera of<Emphasis Type="Italic">Microgaster</Emphasis> latreille and<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hygroplitis</Emphasis> thomson (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Microgastrinae) from China

The genera ofMicrogaster Latreille 1804 andHygroplitis Thomson 1895 from China are presented systematically in this paper. Thirty-two species ofMicrogaster and three species ofHygroplitis are known in China. Diagnosis, character variation, distribution and host of each species among the two genera are presented, including its host and distribution. Keys to the species ofMicrogaster andHygroplitis are given. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Dec. 19, 2006.     

Plant Viruses Transmitted by Whiteflies

One-hundred and fourteen virus species are transmitted by whiteflies (family Aleyrodidae). Bemisia tabaci transmits 111 of these species while Trialeurodes vaporariorum and T. abutilonia transmit three species each. B. tabaci and T. vaporariorum are present in the European–Mediterranean region, though the former is restricted in its distribution. Of the whitefly-transmitted virus species, 90% belong to the Begomovirus genus, 6% to the Crinivirus genus and the remaining 4% are in the Closterovirus, Ipomovirus or Carlavirus genera. Other named, whitefly-transmitted viruses that have not yet been ranked as species are also documented. The names, abbreviations and synonyms of the whitefly-transmitted viruses are presented in tabulated form together with details of their whitefly vectors, natural hosts and distribution. Entries are also annotated with references. Whitefly-transmitted viruses affecting plants in the European–Mediterranean region have been highlighted in the text.     

The parasitoid complex ofLiriomyza cicerina on chickpea (Cicer arietinum)

Liriomyza cicerina (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an important pest on chickpea in Turkey. The objective of this study was to determine the parasitoids and rates of parasitism ofL. cicerina on chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) during the 2005 and 2006 seasons in ?anl?urfa province, Turkey. Leaves with mines were sampled weekly and kept in the laboratory to observe and count emerging leafminer and parasitoid adults. Eight parasitoid species were collected: the braconidsOpius monilicornis Fischer andOpius tersus Foerster and the eulophidsDiaulinopsis arenaria (Erdös) andNeochrysocharis formosa (Westwood), which occurred in both the winter and summer seasons;Diglyphus crassinervis Erdös,Neochrysocharis ambitiosa Hansson,Neochrysocharis sericea (Erdös) andPediobius metallicus (Nees), which occurred only in the summer growing areas.Diaulinopsis arenaria was the predominant parasitoid with 4–7.7% parasitism rate whileN. ambitiosa andO. monilicornis were the second and third most predominant species. The results of these trials show that sinceDia. arenaria occurred throughout every season, it could potentially be used for control of the leafminerL. cicerina.     

Plant–herbivore asynchrony necessitates augmentative releases of the exotic beetle,Zygogramma bicolorata,to enhance the biological control of P arthenium hysterophorus

Systematic information on the quantitative impact of Z ygogramma bicolorata on the biology of P arthenium hysterophorus is crucial as the seeds of this weed continue to germinate from the accumulated soil seed bank throughout the year in the form of different germinating flushes, while the activity of the beetle ceases during winter as it enters diapause. Therefore, plant–herbivore interactions need to be explored to develop predictions of the overall impact of the introduced beetle on the weed. The findings revealed that defoliation by Z . bicolorata had a significant impact on the plant height, density and flower production in flushes F ₃, F ₄ and F ₅, but not in F ₁ and F ₂ that exhibited longer periodicity, profuse branching, a longer flowering period and maximum flower production and contributed mostly to the existing seed soil bank. Therefore, total depletion of the existing soil seed bank was not possible. Consequently, the effect of augmentative field releases of laboratory‐reared beetles was explored on F ₁ and F ₂ in February for three consecutive years (2011–2013). Before initiating the trial, random soil samples were taken from the plots that were assigned to the paired treatments (i.e. with the beetle and without the beetle [insecticide‐treated]) and it was found that the seed bank in those samples did not differ. The single release of Z . bicolorata adults at five per plant at the six‐leaf stage significantly reduced the soil seed bank, compared to without the biocontrol agent, irrespective of the flushes at the end of the season.     

The use of Solacol® (validamycin) as a growth retardant in the isolation of soil fungi

Solacol^®, a formulation of the antibiotic validamycin, at 0.33% in 2% malt extract agar, reduced the spread of fungi on dilution plates drastically and allowed twice as much incubation time before subculturing; this resulted in an elevated number of species isolated. Using pure cultures of 62 common soil fungi, it was shown that all fast-growing species (exceptPythium ultimum) were efficiently inhibited but not completely suppressed. Inhibition was comparable to that by 0.5% oxgall, though, while this substance completely suppressed several species, Solacol very strongly inhibited onlyGaeumannomyces graminis, Gerlachia nivalis, Harzia acremonioides, Verticillium biguttatum andRhizoctonia solani. In a further experiment each separate constituent of Solacol was tested against 22 fungi at equivalent concentrations. Validamycin strongly inhibitedChaetomium globosum and two Basidiomycetes, though hardly more than the non-ionic detergent which mainly inhibited the other fungi. A few species were, however, more inhibited by Solacol than by the detergent alone. Solacol at 0.33% is a suitable aid in dilution plating of soil fungi, by increasing the number of colonies and species observed.Samenvatting Solacol^®, een formulering van het antibioticum validamycine, remde de groei van schimmels in verdunningsplaten met een concentratie van 0.33% in 2% moutagar en maakte het mogelijk de periode tot afenten met een factor 2 te verlengen; daardoor was het aantal geïsoleerde soorten duidelijk toegenomen. Met reincultures van 62 algemene grondschimmelsoorten werd aangetoond, dat alle snelgroeiende soorten (met uitzondering vanPythium ultimum) voldoende geremd, maar niet volkomen onderdrukt werden. Het remmingspercentage was vergelijkbaar met dat van 0.5% ossegal, hoewel dit laatste sommige soorten volkomen onderdrukte; Solacol remde alleenGaeumannomyces graminis, Gerlachia nivalis, Harzia acremonioides, Verticillium biguttatum enRhizoctonia solani zeer sterk. In een volgend experiment werden de componenten van Solacol t.o.v. 22 fungi apart getoetst in concentraties equivalent aan 0.33% Solacol. Validamycine remde alleenChaetomium globosum en twee basidiomyceten behoorlijk, maar nauwelijks meer dan de niet-ionische uitvloeier, die in hoofdzaak de overige remeffecten veroorzaakte. Enkele soorten werden echter door het complete Solacol veel sterker geremd dan door de uitvloeier alleen. Solacol in een verdunning van 0,33% wordt aanbevolen bij verdunningsplaten voor het isoleren van grondschimmels ten einde het aantal kolonies en soorten te verhogen.