基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法

将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。     

基于双响应面法的地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型研究

以内蒙古金泉工业园区水源地为研究区,在已有地下水水流数值模拟模型基础上,采用拉丁超立方抽样方法,获取输入（抽水量）数据集和输出（地下水位降深）数据集,运用双响应面方法,建立了地下水水流数值模拟模型的替代模型—双响应面模型。经验证,双响应面模型计算出的地下水水位降深均值与地下水水流数值模拟模型计算出的地下水水位降深均值的平均相对拟合误差为0.22%,地下水水位降深剩余标准差的平均相对拟合误差为0.03%,相对拟合误差都比较小,说明所建立的双响应面模型可以有效的替代地下水流数值模拟模型,这为地下水资源优化管理中替代模型的建立提供了有效的科学论证。     

考虑Copula-LM-HMS耦联的台风情境下大坝洪水漫顶风险率计算

气候变化下台风风暴潮出现频次增加,形成的暴雨洪水对水库大坝安全产生极大威胁。由于部分地区实测流量资料缺少,基于雨量资料的随机模型与水文模型耦合模拟洪水过程线的研究亟待发展。针对现有小流域流量资料缺少问题,研究了基于降雨随机模型与水文模型的Copula-LM-HMS耦联模型,来模拟入库洪水并计算水库大坝洪水漫顶风险率。该模型通过Copula函数与拉丁超立方-蒙特卡罗抽样（Latin Hypercube-Monte Carlo Simulation）生成流域多组7日降雨数据,并通过变倍比放大法缩放处理得到相应降雨序列,利用HEC-HMS水文模型模拟洪水过程线并结合调洪演算得到坝前最高水位,同时考虑风浪作用来模拟台风情景下的库水位变化情况,计算大坝洪水漫顶风险率,并分析不同组合条件对洪水漫顶风险率的影响。余姚市四明湖水库实例分析表明,构建的Copula-LM-HMS耦合模型计算得到的拦河坝在未来台风情境下无漫顶风险,自溃坝最小漫顶风险为0.22%,最大漫顶风险达到2.68%;洪水漫顶风险与降雨分布及起调水位有关,同时风浪作用对洪水漫顶风险影响较大。基于耦合模型进行中小流域洪水漫顶风险率计算,...     

基于替代模型的地表水地下水耦合模型不确定性分析

在地表水地下水耦合模拟过程中,源汇项的不确定性会影响模型输出结果的可靠性,故对其进行不确定性分析十分必要。针对一假想算例建立了地表水地下水耦合模拟数学模型,并运用Hydro Geo Sphere软件对其进行同步并行求解。采用Monte Carlo方法分析源汇项的不确定性对于地表水地下水耦合模拟输出结果的影响。在不确定性分析过程中,为减少多次调用模拟模型所产生的计算负荷,采用拉丁超立方抽样和Kriging方法建立模拟模型的替代模型。结果表明:地表水地下水耦合模拟模型能够描述研究区地表水流与地下水流的水力联系;采用Kriging方法建立模拟模型的替代模型,能减少不确定性分析的计算负荷;结合风险评估,地下水水位低于地下水生态水位阈值的风险值为0.2;基于替代模型对地表水地下水耦合模拟模型进行不确定性分析,大幅度地减少了计算成本,为决策者的实际工作提供参考。     

数控机床几何误差相关性分析方法研究

为提高数控机床的精度,降低装配、制造过程产生的几何误差的影响,基于多体系统理论建立几何误差模型,在误差相关性分析的基础上,提出了一种辨识关键性几何误差元素的方法。首先,基于多体系统理论及齐次坐标变换方法建立了三轴数控机床几何误差模型,构建了几何误差元素相关性分析模型。其次,采用拉丁超立方抽样方法在整个参数空间内抽样,有效避免了单因素分析的缺陷。最后,通过计算拉丁立方抽样确定的误差元素引起的空间几何误差,进行相关性分析并辨识影响机床精度的关键几何误差元素。误差补偿后的圆测试对比结果表明,该方法可判别影响数控机床空间精度的重要误差元素,并能够定量辨识误差元素对几何误差向量的作用效果,可为机床误差补偿及精度分配提供重要的理论参考。     

低比转数变工况离心泵的性能优化

为了提高低比转数变工况离心泵的全局效率,采用单独离心叶轮优化、单独蜗壳优化和叶轮与蜗壳整体优化3种设计方案,基于拉丁超立方抽样试验和模拟退火优化算法,利用数值模拟方法对流量比(最大流量/最小流量)为8的离心泵进行性能优化.研究结果表明:3种优化方案都能提高变工况离心泵的全局效率,其中蜗壳优化和整体优化获得的泵效率比较接近,而叶片优化方案的效果相对较弱,故开展低比转数变工况离心泵优化时,可以优先考虑对蜗壳结构参数进行优化设计;进行变工况离心泵水力设计时,为了提高离心泵整体效率,应使选取的设计流量稍微小于最大工作流量.     

基于条件与对偶抽样的Monte-arl

集成条件抽样、对偶抽样这两种缩减方差技术,改进传统Monte-Carlo随机模拟的效率,并用于功能函数能够显式表达的土木工程结构可靠性分析。模拟成果表明,采用该方法的收敛性良好,模拟次数大大减少,显著地改进了M-C随机模拟的效率、降低了成本,可靠指标β值精度满足工程实用要求,在土木工程结构可靠度分析中具有实用价值。     

基于BP网络的畦灌性能模拟模型及其应用评价

根据山东簸箕李灌区冬小麦灌溉实测资料,初步建立了基于BP网络的畦灌性能模拟模型,并以地面灌溉数值模型SRFR模拟结果作为目标值,对开发的BP模型进行了训练,确定了BP模型运行参数。应用结果表明,SRFR模型和BP模型得到的灌水效率和灌水均匀度变化规律一致,平均相对误差均为2.5%左右,基于BP网络的畦灌性能模拟模型可用于类似条件下畦灌性能指标的预测和评价。     

基于贝叶斯方法的收割机发动机盖有限元模型修正

收割机发动机缸盖较为复杂,在进行有限元分析时,如果模型简化或计算模型选择错误对计算效果影响很大。为此,提出了一种基于贝叶斯方法的发动机缸盖有限元模型修正方法,在进行缸盖的有限元分析时,采用了贝叶斯方法对缸盖的刚度参数进行修正,有效地提高了计算仿真的准确性。为了验证修正模型的可行性和可靠性,利用Pro/E软件对收割机发动机缸盖进行了三维建模,并将模型直接导入到ANSYS软件中进行了网格划分,网格划分采用了分块网格划分的形式,提高了计算效率和计算的准确性。最后,运用ANSYS对发动机缸盖在工作条件下的应力分布进行了有限元仿真计算,结果表明:采用修正模型可以成功地计算得到较为准确的应力分布情况,从而验证了模型的可靠性,为收割机发动机缸盖的设计提供了重要的数据参考。     

二维撒施畦灌地表水流溶质运移模型：II验证

基于撒施施肥方式下畦灌试验数据,从传统平均相对误差和马尔科夫随机过程两个角度,对二维撒施畦灌地表水流溶质运移模型进行了验证．基于传统平均相对误差的结果表明,模型模拟的水流推进与消退的平均相对误差分剐为4．98％和9．37％,水量平衡误差为0．28％,模拟各测点的溶质质量浓度变化过程平均相对误差为8．64％-14．22％,溶质平衡误差O．58％,构建的模型不仅具有较好的模拟二维撒施畦灌地表水流运动和溶质质量浓度变化过程的能力,还具备较佳的水量与溶质质量守恒性．基于马尔科夫随机过程的计算结果表明,地形项的随机性对模拟效果的影响为88．68％-96．21％,而畦面土壤物理属性等模型未能考虑因素的随机性对各测点溶质质量浓度变化的影响为3．79％-11．32％,因此仅考虑畦面微地形分布随机性的模型,具备优良的二维撒施畦灌地表水流和溶质运移过程的模拟性能．构建的模型为评价撒施施肥方式下的畦灌施肥系统性能,提供了合理完备的实用性数值模拟工具．     

Overland water and salt flows in a set of rice paddies

Cultivation of paddy rice in semiarid areas of the world faces problems related to water scarcity. This paper aims at characterizing water use in a set of paddies located in the central Ebro basin of Spain using experimentation and computer simulation. A commercial field with six interconnected paddies, with a total area of 5.31 ha, was instrumented to measure discharge and water quality at the inflow and at the runoff outlet. The soil was classified as a Typic Calcixerept, and was characterized by a mild salinity (2.5 dS m⁻¹) and an infiltration rate of 5.8 mm day⁻¹. The evolution of flow depth at all paddies was recorded. Data from the 2002 rice-growing season was elaborated using a mass balance approach to estimate the infiltration rate and the evolution of discharge between paddies. Seasonal crop evapotranspiration, estimated with the surface renewal method, was 731 mm (5.1 mm day⁻¹), very similar to that of other summer cereals grown in the area, like corn. The irrigation input was 1874 mm, deep percolation was 830 mm and surface runoff was 372 mm. Irrigation efficiency was estimated as 41%. The quality of surface runoff water was slightly degraded due to evapoconcentration and to the contact with the soil. During the period 2001–2003, the electrical conductivity of surface runoff water was 54% higher than that of irrigation water. However, the runoff water was suitable for irrigation. A mechanistic mass balance model of inter-paddy water flow permitted to conclude that improvements in irrigation efficiency cannot be easily obtained in the experimental conditions. Since deep percolation losses more than double surface runoff losses, a reduction in irrigation discharge would not have much room for efficiency improvement. Simulations also showed that rice irrigation performance was not negatively affected by the fluctuating inflow hydrograph. These hydrographs are typical of turnouts located at the tail end of tertiary irrigation ditches. In fact, these are the sites where rice has been historically cultivated in the study area, since local soils are often saline-sodic and can only grow paddy rice taking advantage of the low salinity of the irrigation water. The low infiltration rate characteristic of these saline-sodic soils (an experimental value of 3.2 mm day⁻¹ was obtained) combined with a reduced irrigation discharge resulted in a simulated irrigation efficiency of 60%. Paddy rice irrigation efficiency can attain reasonable values in the local saline-sodic soils, where the infiltration rate is clearly smaller than the average daily rice evapotranspiration.     

瓦房店市水果生产标准化发展研究

瓦房店市是我国重要的水果生产基地,在国内水果生产领域占有重要地位。随着水果市场化的不断深入,如何满足和适应国内外市场需求成为瓦房店市水果生产的关键问题。从瓦房店市水果生产实际出发,阐述了实施水果生产标准化的必要性,提出了发展水果生产标准化的具体措施。     

金谷子耐旱TG118引种试种及推广应用

对引进的谷子新品种金谷子耐旱TG118进行品种比较试验和多点试种。结果表明：该品种抗旱、耐瘠、适应性强,稳产、高产、抗病抗风抗倒伏强,品质优良,粮草兼用,种植简单,省工易管;一般产量在6000kg/hm2以上,比当地主栽品种增产20%以上。最高产量达9450kg/hm2,适于在辽西北地区推广应用。     

对《种子法》存在问题的探讨

《种子法》是我国种植业第一部法律。自实施以来,为依法加强种子管理提供了有力的法律支撑,促进我国种子产业发生翻天覆地的变化。但随着依法管理工作的深入和种子产业的快速发展,《种子法》及配套规章的一些问题逐步显现出来。对《种子法》及配套规章存在的问题进行深入分析,对需要进一步补充的章节以及需要调整的内容进行深入探讨,以求更加完善和明确。     

Review of the Egyptian experience in implementing land drainage projects

About 30 years have passed since the Government of Egypt embarked on implementing a series of large scale drainage projects. At present, about 3.8 million acres have been provided with drainage systems on the basis of systematic pre-drainage investigations and designs. The target is to provide drains in approximately 6.4 million acres in the Nile Valley and Delta.The implementation of the subsurface drainage system is carried out by the public sector and private contractors under direct supervision of governmental regional departments. The implementation process depends on many factors related to the drainage material, machinery, manpower, site requirements, farmers and organizations involved. Problems and constraints are sometimes challenging, however, the annual rate of implementation has gradually increased to 170,000 acre/year.This paper discusses the different aspects involved in the implementation process of drainage systems. The development in materials, machinery and construction technologies will be reviewed. Institutional and management factors are going to be also considered.     

和谐社会理论建设的几点哲学思考

在新世纪,面对机遇和挑战,党的十六大把“社会更加和谐”作为全面建设更高水平的小康社会的一个重要目标。中国人素有社会和谐的理想;西方人自古也向往社会和谐;借鉴东西方两种和谐社会思想的经验、教训,构建社会主义和谐社会理论。     

A European irrigation map for spatially distributed agricultural modelling

We present a pan-European irrigation map based on regional European statistics, a European land use map and a global irrigation map. The map provides spatial information on the distribution of irrigated areas per crop type which allows determining irrigated areas at the level of spatial modelling units. The map is a requirement for a European scale assessment of the impacts of irrigated agriculture on water resources based on spatially distributed modelling of crop growth and water balance. The irrigation map was compiled in a two step procedure. First, irrigated areas were distributed to potentially irrigated crops at a regional level (European statistical regions NUTS3), combining Farm Structure Survey (FSS) data on irrigated area, crop-specific irrigated area for crops whenever available, and total crop area. Second, crop-specific irrigated area was distributed within each statistical region based on the crop distribution given in our land use map. A global map of irrigated areas with a 5′ resolution was used to further constrain the distribution within each NUTS3 based on the density of irrigated areas. The constrained distribution of irrigated areas as taken from statistics to a high resolution dataset enables us to estimate irrigated areas for various spatial entities, including administrative, natural and artificial units, providing a reasonable input scenario for large-scale distributed modelling applications. The dataset bridges a gap between global datasets and detailed regional data on the distribution of irrigated areas and provides information for various assessments and modelling applications.     

粉质仪和拉伸仪在面粉生产中的应用

在介绍粉质仪和拉伸仪结构和原理的基础上,探讨了粉质曲线中吸水率、形成时间、稳定时间、弱化度和评价值等指标与面粉品质的关系,以及如何根据拉伸曲线中面团最大拉伸阻力、延伸度和拉伸曲线面积等指标来评价面团品质,并结合生产实际,概述了粉质仪和拉伸仪在面粉生产中的作用。     

农村信息化服务的现状及建设措施

分析当前我国农村信息化服务的现状,提出加强农村信息化服务的新举措。     

车辆ABS控制算法的研究及探讨

对现代汽车的ABS控制算法作了一些简单的介绍,同时指出了它们的一些缺陷,相应地提出了几种对ABS的其它控制方法并加以探讨,其中着重论述了ABS门限值控制算法中参考车速的确定方法和基于附着系数的控制算法。