The potential impacts of ocean acidification: scaling from physiology to fisheries*

Views expressed on the potential impact of ocean acidification range from wholesale degradation of marine ecosystems through to no discernable impact with minimal consequences. Constraining this range of predictions is necessary for the development of informed policy and management. The direct biological impacts of acidification occur at the molecular and cellular level; however, it is the expression of these effects at the population and ecosystem level that is of societal concern. Here, we consider the potential impact of ocean acidification on fisheries with particular emphasis on approaches to scaling from physiological responses to population‐ and ecosystem‐level processes. In some instances, impacts of ocean acidification may lead to changes in the relative species composition at a given trophic level without affecting the overall productivity, whilst in other instances, ocean acidification may lead to a reduction in productivity at a given tropic level. Because of the scale at which ecological processes operate, modelling studies are required. Here, ocean acidification is situated within ongoing research into the ecological dynamics of perturbed systems, for which many models have already been developed. Whilst few existing models currently explicitly represent physiological processes sensitive to ocean acidification, some examples of how ocean acidification effects may be emulated within existing models are discussed. Answering the question of how acidification may impact fisheries requires the integration of knowledge across disciplines; this contribution aims to facilitate the inclusion of higher trophic level ecology into this ongoing debate and discussion.     

Describing ecosystem contexts with single‐species models: a theoretical synthesis for fisheries

Fished populations exist within complex ecosystems but are typically assessed using single‐species models. It is often lamented that stock assessments rarely account for other ecosystem components explicitly, but in most fisheries there are clear difficulties in implementing data‐intensive ecosystem‐based assessment approaches. Addressing these competing challenges requires prioritizing investments in expanded assessment frameworks. To provide high‐level conceptual guidance to such prioritization, here we use general analytical theory to identify (i) characteristics of fish stocks that tend to facilitate or inhibit the precision and accuracy of reference points from single‐species assessments, (ii) characteristics of ecosystem components that introduce the greatest bias/imprecision into single‐species reference points and (iii) warning signs within single‐species frameworks that important ecosystem components may not be adequately accounted for. We synthesize and expand on theories from various branches of applied mathematics addressing analogous questions. Our theory suggests that (i) slow population dynamics (relative to the dynamics of other ecosystem components) and a wide range of abundance observations promote precision and accuracy of single‐species reference points; (ii) ecosystem components that strongly influence the focal stock's growth, and change on similar timescales as the focal stock's abundance, introduce the greatest bias/imprecision to single‐species reference points; and (iii) signs of potential challenges for single‐species assessment include fast population dynamics, ‘hydra effects’ (i.e. abundance and fishing pressure simultaneously increase), and recently detected extinctions, invasions or regime shifts in closely connected ecosystem components. Our results generalize to other levels of abstraction and provide strategic insights complementing tactical simulation approaches such as management strategy evaluation.     

Towards a more balanced view of marine ecosystems

Frank et al. (Nature, 477 , 2011, 86) hypothesize that the slow recovery of the Scotian Shelf ecosystem to its structure prior to the early 1990s is a result of the oscillatory, runaway consumption dynamics of the forage fish complex. Their hypothesis is based on the underlying assumptions that this ecosystem's dynamics are governed by top‐down forcing, predator–prey role reversals, and a trophic cascade extending from demersal predatory fish, especially cod, down to the level of nutrients (Science, 308 , 2005, 1621; Nature, 477 , 2011, 86). Greene and Pershing (Science, 315 , 2007, 1084) called into question the underlying assumption of an extended trophic cascade. They argued that while top‐down forcing can be important at higher trophic levels in many Northwest Atlantic Shelf ecosystems, its impacts on zooplankton, phytoplankton, and nutrients are minor or nonexistent. Instead, they argued that lower trophic‐level dynamics in these ecosystems are governed by climate‐associated, bottom‐up forcing. Observations over the past three decades (Greene et al. Ecology, 89 , (Suppl 11), 2008, S24; MERCINA Oceanography, 25 , 2012, 208.) are consistent with predictions from the climate‐forcing hypothesis proposed by Greene and Pershing (Science, 315 , 2007, 1084), while those from the past decade (MERCINA, Oceanography, 25 , 2012, 208) demonstrate that the trophic cascade hypothesis as proposed by Frank et al. (Science, 308 , 2005, 1621) should be rejected. A closer examination of these observations also calls into question the hypothesis of ecosystem recovery in the Northwest Atlantic being governed by the oscillatory, runaway consumption dynamics of the forage fish complex.     

Simulated ecosystem response to volcanic iron fertilization in the subarctic Pacific ocean

The eruption of the Kasatochi volcano in August 2008 stimulated an anomalously high phytoplankton bloom in the otherwise iron‐limited subarctic Pacific ocean. It has been proposed that this increased production may have been responsible for record returns of some Pacific salmon stocks in the following years. Here, we investigate the potential effect of volcanic‐induced iron fertilization on the entire ecosystem, from phytoplankton through to top predators, using a fully‐coupled end‐to‐end ecosystem model. Our simulations indicate that the volcanic iron fertilization could only stimulate modest increases, at most 10%, in the standing stock biomass of upper trophic level species, including fisheries targets such as Pacific salmon. Propagation of energy to higher trophic levels depends on the timing of the eruption, with more efficient crustaceous zooplankton pathways being favored earlier in the growing season and less‐efficient gelatinous zooplankton pathways dominating during later months. However, effects were of modest magnitude for all eruption timings, and the strong level of connectivity within the food web makes the preferential stimulation of a single salmon stock implausible. This adds additional support to evidence suggesting that the Kasatochi eruption did not play a large role in subsequent high salmon returns and questions the value of much smaller‐scale artificial fertilization for fisheries. Indeed, the onset of macronutrient limitation coupled with the highly‐connected nature of the food web exert strong controls on the fisheries response to even complete removal of iron limitation in the subarctic Pacific.     

Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

Realizing the potential of trait‐based approaches to advance fisheries science

Analysing how fish populations and their ecological communities respond to perturbations such as fishing and environmental variation is crucial to fisheries science. Researchers often predict fish population dynamics using species‐level life‐history parameters that are treated as fixed over time, while ignoring the impact of intraspecific variation on ecosystem dynamics. However, there is increasing recognition of the need to include processes operating at ecosystem levels (changes in drivers of productivity) while also accounting for variation over space, time and among individuals. To address similar challenges, community ecologists studying plants, insects and other taxa increasingly measure phenotypic characteristics of individual animals that affect fitness or ecological function (termed “functional traits”). Here, we review the history of trait‐based methods in fish and other taxa, and argue that fisheries science could see benefits by integrating trait‐based approaches within existing fisheries analyses. We argue that measuring and modelling functional traits can improve estimates of population and community dynamics, and rapidly detect responses to fishing and environmental drivers. We support this claim using three concrete examples: how trait‐based approaches could account for time‐varying parameters in population models; improve fisheries management and harvest control rules; and inform size‐based models of marine communities. We then present a step‐by‐step primer for how trait‐based methods could be adapted to complement existing models and analyses in fisheries science. Finally, we call for the creation and expansion of publicly available trait databases to facilitate adapting trait‐based methods in fisheries science, to complement existing public databases of life‐history parameters for marine organisms.     

Foraging arena theory

There is a critical need for quantitative models that can help evaluate trade‐off decisions related to the impacts of harvesting and protection of aquatic ecosystems within an ecosystem context. Ecosystem models used to evaluate such trade‐offs need to have the capability of capturing the dynamic stability that can arise when predator‐prey interactions are restricted to spatial and temporal arenas. Foraging arenas appear common in aquatic systems and are created by a wide range of mechanisms, ranging from restrictions of predator distributions in response to predation risk caused by their own predators, to risk‐sensitive foraging behaviour by their prey. Foraging arenas partition the prey in each predator‐prey interaction in a food web into vulnerable and invulnerable states, with exchange between these states potentially limiting overall trophic flow. Inclusion of vulnerability exchange processes in models for recruitment processes and food web responses to disturbances like harvesting leads to very different predictions about dynamic stability, trophic cascades and maintenance of ecological diversity than do models based on large‐scale mass action (random mixing) interactions between prey and predators. Although a number of methods to estimate these critical exchange rates are presented, none are considered fully satisfactory. The most important challenge for the practical application of models that incorporate foraging arena theory today is not only developing new or improved methods for measuring exchange rates but also evaluating how such rates vary in responses to major fishery‐induced changes in abundances of predators.     

Buried in the sand: Uncovering the ecological roles and importance of rays

Rays (superorder Batoidea) are the most diverse group of elasmobranchs, and many are threatened with extinction. However, there remain areas where research on the ecology of this group is lacking, from trophic interactions to their importance to ecosystem structure and function. Such ecological insights are critical for predicting the potential consequences of changes in their population sizes. Our aim was to synthesize the existing ray ecology literature and identify key knowledge gaps in order to provide a framework for future research. Numerous studies describe ray diets, and the number of studies using biochemical methods to address ray trophic interactions is increasing. The implications of ray predator–prey interactions on population dynamics of prey and how ray foraging might influence ecosystem dynamics through bioturbation remain relatively unexplored, despite claims that rays are ecologically important because they are bioturbators and because of their potential to deplete stocks of commercially important bivalves. Therefore, to better integrate rays in our understanding of marine community dynamics, there is a need to: (i) combine behavioural data with dietary information to describe predator–prey interactions; (ii) understand how ray bioturbation affects biogeochemical cycles and infaunal communities; (iii) elucidate conditions under which rays might initiate or transmit trophic cascades through consumptive and non‐consumptive pathways; and (iv) consider anthropogenic influences on the ecological roles and importance of rays.     

A model‐based meso‐zooplankton production index and its relation to the ocean survival of juvenile coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

The ocean survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) off the Pacific Northwest coast has been related to oceanographic conditions regulating lower trophic level production during their first year at sea. Coastal upwelling is recognized as the primary driver of seasonal plankton production but as a single index upwelling intensity has been an inconsistent predictor of coho salmon survival. Our goal was to develop a model of upwelling‐driven meso‐zooplankton production for the Oregon shelf ecosystem that was more immediately linked to the feeding conditions experienced by juvenile salmon than a purely physical index. The model consisted of a medium‐complexity plankton model linked to a simple one‐dimensional, cross‐shelf upwelling model. The plankton model described the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton, meso‐zooplankton (copepods), and detritus. The model was run from 1996 to 2007 and evaluated on an interannual scale against time‐series observations of copepod biomass. The model’s ability to capture observed interannual variability improved substantially when the copepod community size distribution was taken into account each season. The meso‐zooplankton production index was significantly correlated with the ocean survival of hatchery coho salmon from the Oregon production area, although the coastal upwelling index that drove the model was not itself correlated with survival. Meso‐zooplankton production within the summer quarter (July–September) was more strongly correlated with coho survival than was meso‐zooplankton production in the spring quarter (April–June).     

Salmon shark connections: North Pacific climate change,indirect fisheries effects,or just variability?

A variety of changes are occurring in the ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, but information about the mechanisms of change has been relatively limited, due in part to the region’s remoteness and subarctic conditions. Any number of ecosystem components or indicators could be used to exemplify this dilemma, but here we point to the salmon shark (Lamna ditropis, Lamnidae) as an example of a species that can potentially mediate considerable ecosystem change due to its high trophic level, but for which some basic information is lacking despite attracting some interesting research and widespread rumours and anecdotal evidence of increased abundance. Increases in the abundance of sharks such as salmon sharks in this region during the 1990s, if true, may help explain other observed changes such as declines in ocean survival rates of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp., Salmonidae) in the region and declines in some wild salmon stocks. Mechanisms that could cause salmon shark increases in Alaskan coastal waters include: (i) increases in sea temperature since the 1970s allowing distributional shifts of this species and changes in the abundance or distribution of their prey; (ii) the 1992 banning of high seas drift gillnets; and (iii) indirect fisheries effects such as competitive release of salmon sharks in the North Pacific transition region and towards the more southern geographic extent of their annual migration as the result of fishery‐related reductions in blue sharks (Prionace glauca, Carcharhinidae) and other pelagic predators. The relative plausibility of these alternative explanations can be evaluated using combinations of existing ecosystem models and empirical research and monitoring programmes including local and indigenous observations.     

Necessary elements of precautionary management: implications for the Antarctic toothfish

We review the precautionary approach to fisheries management, propose a framework that will allow a systematic assessment of insufficient precaution and provide an illustration using an Antarctic fishery. For a single‐species fishery, our framework includes five attributes: (1) limit reference points that recognize gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of the species; (2) accurate measures of population size; (3) ability to detect population changes quickly enough to arrest unwanted declines; (4) adequate understanding of ecosystem dynamics to avoid adverse indirect effects; and (5) assessment of the first four elements by a sufficiently impartial group of scientists. We argue that one or more of these elements frequently fail to be present in the management of many fisheries. Structural uncertainties, which characterize almost all fisheries models, call for higher limit points than those commonly used. A detailed look into the five elements and associated uncertainties is presented for the fishery on the Antarctic toothfish in the Ross Sea (FAO/CCAMLR Area 88.1, 88.2), for which management was recently described as ‘highly precautionary’. In spite of having features that make the Ross Sea fishery ideal for the application of the precautionary approach, gaps in our knowledge and failure to acknowledge these gaps mean that current regulation falls short of being sufficiently precautionary. We propose some possible remedies.     

Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Declines of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976–77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon by Steller sea lions at mid‐trophic levels. The east–west asymmetry of the oceanic response to climate forcing after 1976–77 is consistent with both the temporal aspect (populations decreased after the late 1970s) and the spatial aspect of the decline (western, but not eastern, sea lion populations decreased). These broad‐scale climate variations appear to be modulated by regionally sensitive biogeographic structures along the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, which include a transition point from coastal to open‐ocean conditions at Samalga Pass westward along the Aleutian Islands. These transition points delineate distinct clusterings of different combinations of prey species, which are in turn correlated with differential population sizes and trajectories of Steller sea lions. Archaeological records spanning 4000 yr further indicate that sea lion populations have experienced major shifts in abundance in the past. Shifts in ocean climate are the most parsimonious underlying explanation for the broad suite of ecosystem changes that have been observed in the North Pacific Ocean in recent decades.     

Control mechanisms and ecosystem‐based management of fishery production

Fishery ecosystems are complex and influenced by various drivers that operate and interact at different levels and over multiple scales. Here, we propose a holistic methodology to determine the key mechanisms of fisheries, trophodynamics, and environmental drivers of marine ecosystems, using a multilevel model fitted to data on global catch, effort, trophic level, primary production, and temperature for 130 ecosystems from 1950 to 2012. The model describes the spatial‐temporal dynamics of world fisheries very well with a pseudo R² = 0.75 and estimates the effects of key drivers of fishery production. The results demonstrate the integrative operation of bottom‐up and top‐down regulated trophic interactions at the global level and great variations in their relative importance among different types of ecosystem. The estimation of key drivers’ effects on marine ecosystems provides practical mechanisms for informed ecosystem‐based fisheries management to achieve the sustainable objectives that are consistent with the needs of specific fisheries.     

Individual and spatial variation are as important as species‐level variation to the trophic complexity of a lentic food web

Ecological complexity may improve ecosystem function, stability and adaptability to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Intraspecific trophic variation can represent a significant component of total community variation and can influence food web structure and function. Thus, understanding how trophic niches are partitioned between intraspecific and interspecific processes could improve our understanding of food web dynamics. We examined gut contents, fatty acids and stable isotope ratios in round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) across six sites in Lake Michigan, USA, to determine patterns in intra‐ and interspecific trophic composition (i.e., mean gut or fatty acid composition) and diversity (i.e., the diversity of gut items or fatty acids). We also examined relationships between fatty acid diversity and gut content characteristics to understand potential mechanisms shaping individual trophic phenotypes. There was significant variation in both trophic composition and diversity among sites, and individual and spatial variation was as important to total trophic variation as species identity. Round goby that consumed dreissenid mussels had more diverse fatty acid profiles than those that consumed other benthic invertebrates, whereas yellow perch fatty acid diversity was not related to gut content composition. Our results confirm that intraspecific variation in resource use can be as important to trophic dynamics as interspecific variation, and that spatial variation in lower level food web processes or habitat may strongly structure local food web dynamics. Individual‐level examination of trophic diversity, in concert with trophic composition, could provide additional information about the resilience, function and adaptability of local food webs.     

Big floods,big knowledge gap: Food web dynamics in a variable river system

While flow regime is widely recognised as an over‐arching feature structuring aquatic ecosystems, the influence of flood events on feeding habits in fish assemblages inhabiting variable environments remains largely unknown. In this study, we investigated how diets of a fish assemblage changed in response to fluctuations in hydrology in a highly variable, wet‐dry tropical Australian river. We compared dietary habits, trophic guilds and intra‐ and interspecific dietary overlap and diet breadth across different seasons. Wet‐season floods acted as major geomorphic and ecological perturbations that exerted substantial effects on the trophic dynamics of the terapontid assemblage, particularly through the removal of in‐stream plant production and detritus. Forced by major shifts in food source availability due to seasonal flooding, fishes responded to these perturbations by marked changes in diet, with significant guild switching following wet‐season floods. Rather than the predictable, gradual, changes in consumer–resource interactions associated with the gentler seasonal flood pulse evident in other tropical river systems, study results instead emphasised rapid and profound changes to species' diets and trophic interactions following abrupt flood pulses. These sudden shifts in food sources may also explain some of the lack of clarity in discrimination of specific carbon sources or species' trophic levels evident in isotopic food web studies from the region. Results indicate that the effects of flood pulses on assemblage trophic interactions may differ among ecosystem types and across the broad potential scale of hydrological disturbance mediated by flood events.     

Modelling the food web for assessment of the impact of stock supplementation in a reservoir ecosystem in India

Comparative estimates of trophic status and energy flow were carried out in a tropical reservoir ecosystem in India to assess the impact of fish stocking. Mass‐balanced models of the reservoir ecosystem were constructed for two periods – 1982–1983 and 2002–2003 – using ecopath software to determine the impacts on different groups before and after stocking. Mixed trophic impact (MTI) analyses indicated that phytoplankton and detritus have a positive impact on most groups. There was a decrease in nutrient flow through the system from pre‐stocking to post‐stocking (22.28%). The baseline was higher by 0.29% in the post‐stock phase indicating maturity. The ecosystem indices tested indicate that the reservoir was in a more resilient state post‐stocking than during the pre‐stocking phase. The ‘health’ of the ecosystem showed an improvement, which indicates a positive impact of stocking.     

The role of sand lances (Ammodytes sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic Ecosystem: A synthesis of current knowledge with implications for conservation and management

The American sand lance (Ammodytes americanus, Ammodytidae) and the Northern sand lance (A. dubius, Ammodytidae) are small forage fishes that play an important functional role in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). The NWA is a highly dynamic ecosystem currently facing increased risks from climate change, fishing and energy development. We need a better understanding of the biology, population dynamics and ecosystem role of Ammodytes to inform relevant management, climate adaptation and conservation efforts. To meet this need, we synthesized available data on the (a) life history, behaviour and distribution; (b) trophic ecology; (c) threats and vulnerabilities; and (d) ecosystem services role of Ammodytes in the NWA. Overall, 72 regional predators including 45 species of fishes, two squids, 16 seabirds and nine marine mammals were found to consume Ammodytes. Priority research needs identified during this effort include basic information on the patterns and drivers in abundance and distribution of Ammodytes, improved assessments of reproductive biology schedules and investigations of regional sensitivity and resilience to climate change, fishing and habitat disturbance. Food web studies are also needed to evaluate trophic linkages and to assess the consequences of inconsistent zooplankton prey and predator fields on energy flow within the NWA ecosystem. Synthesis results represent the first comprehensive assessment of Ammodytes in the NWA and are intended to inform new research and support regional ecosystem‐based management approaches.     

基于Ecopath模型的五里湖生态系统营养结构和能量流动研究

根据2006年和2009年对五里湖渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,利用Ecopath with Ecosim软件,构建这两个时期五里湖生态系统能量通道模型,比较分析了实施净水渔业前后生态系统的结构和能量流动特征。模型包括大型、其他食鱼性鱼类、湖鲚、鲤、鲫、野杂鱼、鲢、草食性鱼类、大型虾蟹类、软体动物、其他底栖动物、浮游动物、沉水植物、其他维管植物、浮游植物、碎屑等17个功能组,基本覆盖了能量流动的途径。营养网络分析表明,增殖放养滤食性鱼类和贝类,扩大了五里湖生态系统的规模,增加了生态系统的发育程度和生态系统营养级ⅠⅡ的能量转换效率,滤食性生物与生态系统其他功能组生态位的重叠程度也有所增加。该系统各功能组间的联系加强且系统趋向稳定,但生态系统的物质流转速度和物质再循环的比例有所降低。     

Body size distributions in North American freshwater fish: small‐scale factors and synthesis

The ecosystem size/trophic structure hypothesis predicts that the shape of body size distributions will change with ecosystem size because of increases in the relative importance of large, predatory, species. I test the hypothesis by examining the statistical moments, as measures of shape, of species body size distributions of North American freshwater fish assemblages in lakes. Species lists, coupled with dietary and body size information, are used to document the patterns. Body size distributions in small lakes are unimodal and right‐skewed, but distributions become more symmetrical and bimodal in large ecosystems. In small lakes, body sizes are generally small and fish trophic levels low, but size and trophic level increase up to lake volumes of about 0.001 km³, and change little in larger lakes. Adding trophic level to the analysis greatly improves the variance explained by the body size–lake size relation. The conclusions of Griffiths (2012, Global Ecology & Biogeography 21: 383‐392), that postglacial recolonisation and evolutionary change are important determinants of body size distributions at regional and larger scales, are combined with those of this study. Mean body size in local assemblages of lake‐dwelling species is larger than in regional and continental ones. Overall, body size distributions are affected by processes operating at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, with the type, size and duration of the ecosystem probably playing a central role by influencing the proportions of vagile and predatory species, the species which dominate the large size mode.     

Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity

Stakeholders increasingly expect ecosystem assessments as part of advice on fisheries management. Quantitative models to support fisheries decision‐making may be either strategic (‘big picture’, direction‐setting and contextual) or tactical (focused on management actions on short timescales), with some strategic models informing the development of tactical models. We describe and review ‘Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments’ (MICE) that have a tactical focus, including use as ecosystem assessment tools. MICE are context‐ and question‐driven and limit complexity by restricting the focus to those components of the ecosystem needed to address the main effects of the management question under consideration. Stakeholder participation and dialogue is an integral part of this process. MICE estimate parameters through fitting to data, use statistical diagnostic tools to evaluate model performance and account for a broad range of uncertainties. These models therefore address many of the impediments to greater use of ecosystem models in strategic and particularly tactical decision‐making for marine resource management and conservation. MICE are capable of producing outputs that could be used for tactical decision‐making, but our summary of existing models suggests this has not occurred in any meaningful way to date. We use a model of the pelagic ecosystem in the Coral Sea and a linked catchment and ocean model of the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, to illustrate how MICE can be constructed. We summarize the major advantages of the approach, indicate opportunities for the development of further applications and identify the major challenges to broad adoption of the approach.