Geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics for evaluation of the dispersion of epidemic highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1

The aim of this study was to evaluate a range of statistical and geostatistical methods for their usefulness in providing insights into how highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might spread through a national population of village poultry. The insights gained allow the generation of disease dispersion hypotheses. The case study data set consisted of 161 outbreaks of HPAI subtype H5N1 in village poultry reported in Romania between October 2005 and June 2006. Reports of village outbreaks (%) occurred in three waves: October-December (14%), February-March (16%), and May-June (68%). Risk mapping - based on variography and kriging - was used to visualize the evolution of the epidemic. Outbreaks first appeared in eastern and southern Romania, particularly within an area that forms part of the Danube River Delta. The largest phase of the epidemic affected villages in all parts of central, southern, and eastern Romania, but outbreaks were clustered in central Romania. Outbreaks spread in an east to west direction. By using geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics, the evolution of the epidemic could be characterised into two parts: disease introduction, local spread, and sporadic outbreaks, and long-distance disease spread with rapid epidemic propagation. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the environment and landscape (specifically the Danube River Delta) played a critical role in the introduction and initial spread of HPAI subtype H5N1 during the autumn and winter of 2005, and that the movement of poultry might have introduced the infection into central Romania during the spring and summer of 2006. Further research focusing on the spatio-temporal interface between the two parts of the epidemic might reveal how and why it progressed from a confined, local epidemic to a large, national epidemic. Such information would assist efforts to limit the global spread of HPAI subtype H5N1.     

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.     

Effect of species,breed and route of virus inoculation on the pathogenicity of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza (HPAI) viruses in domestic ducks

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses continue to be a threat to poultry in many regions of the world. Domestic ducks have been recognized as one of the primary factors in the spread of H5N1 HPAI. In this study we examined the pathogenicity of H5N1 HPAI viruses in different species and breeds of domestic ducks and the effect of route of virus inoculation on the outcome of infection. We determined that the pathogenicity of H5N1 HPAI viruses varies between the two common farmed duck species, with Muscovy ducks (Cairina moschata) presenting more severe disease than various breeds of Anas platyrhynchos var. domestica ducks including Pekin, Mallard-type, Black Runners, Rouen, and Khaki Campbell ducks. We also found that Pekin and Muscovy ducks inoculated with two H5N1 HPAI viruses of different virulence, given by any one of three routes (intranasal, intracloacal, or intraocular), became infected with the viruses. Regardless of the route of inoculation, the outcome of infection was similar for each species but depended on the virulence of the virus used. Muscovy ducks showed more severe clinical signs and higher mortality than the Pekin ducks. In conclusion, domestic ducks are susceptible to H5N1 HPAI virus infection by different routes of exposure, but the presentation of the disease varied by virus strain and duck species. This information helps support the planning and implementation of H5N1 HPAI surveillance and control measures in countries with large domestic duck populations.     

Association between outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 and migratory waterfowl (family Anatidae) populations

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 threatens poultry production and human health. Understanding the role that migratory waterfowl play in introducing and maintaining this infection is critical to control the outbreaks. A study was conducted to determine if the occurrence of HPAI subtype H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry in Romania, 2005-2006, was associated with proximity to populations of migratory waterfowl. Reported outbreaks--which could be grouped into three epidemic phases--and migratory waterfowl sites were mapped. The migratory waterfowl site closest to each outbreak was identified. The distances between outbreaks occurring in phase 1 and 2 of the epidemic and the closest migratory waterfowl site were significantly (P<0.001) less than in phase 3, but these distances were only useful in predicting when outbreaks occurred during phase 1 (October-December, 2005) of the epidemic. A spatial lag (rho=0.408, P=0.041) model best fit the data, using distance and [distance]*[distance] as predictors (R2=0.425). The correlation between when outbreaks were predicted to occur and when they were observed to occur was 0.55 (P=0.006). Results support the hypothesis that HPAI virus subtype H5N1 infections of village poultry in Romania during the autumn of 2005 might have occurred via exposure to migratory populations of waterfowl.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in cats and other carnivores

The Asian lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus is a known pathogen of birds. Only recently, the virus has been reported to cause sporadic fatal disease in carnivores, and its zoonotic potential has been dominating the popular media. Attention to felids was drawn by two outbreaks with high mortality in tigers, leopards and other exotic felids in Thailand. Subsequently, domestic cats were found naturally infected and experimentally susceptible to H5N1 virus. A high susceptibility of the dog to H3N8 equine influenza A virus had been reported earlier, and recently also HPAI H5N1 virus has been identified as a canine pathogen. The ferret, hamster and mouse are suitable as experimental animals; importantly, these species are also kept as pets. Experimental intratracheal and oral infection of cats with an HPAI H5N1 virus isolate from a human case resulted in lethal disease; furthermore, cats have been infected by the feeding of infected chickens. Spread of the infection from experimentally infected to in-contact cats has been reported. The epidemiological role of the cat and other pet animal species in transmitting HPAI H5N1 virus to humans needs continuous consideration and attention.     

野鸟禽流感的研究进展及西藏的预防和控制对策

高致病性禽流感是由A型流感病毒引起的一种传染病,不仅给世界养禽业造成重大损失,也具有重要的公共卫生学意义。作者综述了高致病性禽流感的研究进展和流行特点,以及野鸟感染禽流感的概况,并结合实际情况提出西藏预防和控制禽流感的建议。     

Infectious dose‐dependent accumulation of live highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in chicken skeletal muscle—implications for public health

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) of H5N1 subtype are a major global threat to poultry and public health. Export of poultry products, such as chicken and duck meat, is a known source for the cross‐boundary spread of HPAI H5N1 viruses. Humans get infected with HPAI H5N1 viruses either by close contact with infected poultry or through consumption of fresh/undercooked poultry meat. Skeletal muscle is the largest soft tissue in chicken that has been shown to contain virus during systemic HPAIV infection and supports productive virus infection. However, the time between infection of a chicken with H5N1 virus and presence of virus in muscle tissue is not yet known. Further, it is also not clear whether chicken infected with low doses of H5N1 virus that cause non‐fatal subclinical infections continue to accumulate virus in skeletal muscle. We investigated the amount and duration of virus detection in skeletal muscle of chicken experimentally infected with different doses (10², 10³ and 10⁴ EID₅₀) of a HPAI H5N1 virus. Influenza viral antigen could be detected as early as 6 hr after infection and live virus was recovered from 48 hr after infection. Notably, chicken infected with lower levels of HPAI H5N1 virus (i.e., 10² EID₅₀) did not die acutely, but continued to accumulate high levels of H5N1 virus in skeletal muscle until 6 days post‐infection. Our data suggest that there is a potential risk of human exposure to H5N1 virus through meat from clinically healthy chicken infected with a low dose of virus. Our results highlight the need to implement rigorous monitoring systems to screen poultry meat from H5N1 endemic countries to limit the global spread of H5N1 viruses.     

Control versus no control: options for avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria

In January 2006, an outbreak of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was recorded in Nigeria for the first time. This present work describes an estimation of possible costs associated with a vaccination-based control policy added to other measures to restrict HPAI H5N1 virus infections. The evaluations used epidemiological and production data, including budgets necessary for the vaccine acquisition, distribution and administration in arriving at the final costs. Using decision tree and cost benefit analysis the economical benefits for Nigeria and countries with similar veterinary infrastructures, biosecurity and farming systems are calculated. The result indicated that a halting in the continued spread of the virus through effective control measure will be 52 times better than taking no action. This should help policy makers in deciding in favour of vaccination combined with other tools as an effective means of controlling avian influenza H5N1. * Control of HPAI H5N1 will best be understood by policy makers in financial terms. * Effective control through vaccination of poultry is much cheaper and reduces the chances of human zoonoses. * Poultry vaccination combined with other control measures will be the most effective means of control in most developing economies.     

我国H5和H7N9亚型高致病性禽流感的监测及疫情暴发分析

禽流感病毒（avian influenza virus,AIV）是一种重要的人兽共患病病原,严重制约养禽业的健康发展,并对公共卫生安全构成极大威胁。其中,H5（H5N1、H5N2、H5N6、H5N8等）和H7N9亚型高致病性禽流感病毒（highly pathogenic avian influenza virus,HPAIV）引起的高致病性禽流感（highly pathogenic avian influenza,HPAI）对我国养禽业危害巨大。通过实施强制免疫,疫情得到了控制,但在禽群中仍散状暴发,并出现多种新型病毒,防控形势依然严峻。本文总结了截至2021年9月我国禽类暴发H5和H7N9亚型HPAI的所有官方公布的疫情暴发事件以及监测数据,分析了其流行特点,以期为禽流感的预警和防控提供参考。     

Risk signals of an influenza pandemic caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1: spatio-temporal perspectives

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 is a trans-boundary animal disease that has crossed the animal-human species barrier and over the past decade has had a considerable impact on the poultry industry, wild bird populations and on human health. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of H5N1 outbreaks can provide visual clues to the dynamics of disease spread and of areas at risk, and thus improve the cost-effectiveness of disease control and prevention. This study describes the characteristics and investigates the temporal, spatial and space-time dynamics of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry between December 2003 and December 2009 using a global database. The study found that the start date of the epidemic wave was postponed, the duration of the epidemic was prolonged and its magnitude reduced over time, but the disease transmission cycle was not efficiently interrupted. Two 'hot-spot' regions of H5N1 outbreaks were identified: well-documented locations in East and Southeast Asia, as well as a novel location at the boundaries of Europe and Africa, where enhanced surveillance should be conducted. The risk of a pandemic due to H5N1 remains high.     

Legislation for the control of avian influenza in the European union

In the light of experience gained with avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in Europe and elsewhere in the world, the European Union (EU) legislation has recently been updated. The strategy to control the introduction and spread of AI relies on rapid disease detection, killing of infected birds, movement restrictions for live birds and their products, cleaning and disinfection and vaccination. Measures are not only to be implemented in case of outbreaks of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI), but are now also directed against occurrence of low pathogenic AI of H5 and H7 (LPAI) subtypes in poultry, albeit in a modified manner proportionate to the risk posed by these pathotypes. Enhanced surveillance in poultry holdings and wild birds, as well as preventive vaccination, has also been introduced. EU Measures are flexible and largely based on risk assessment of the local epidemiological situation. The occurrence of HPAI H5N1 of the Asian lineage in the EU and its unprecedented spread by wild migratory birds necessitated the adoption of additional control measures. Although HPAI H5N1 has affected wild birds and poultry holdings in several EU Member States, EU legislation and its implementation in Member States has so far successfully limited the impact of the disease on animal and human health.     

Experimental study to determine if low-pathogenicity and high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses can be present in chicken breast and thigh meat following intranasal virus inoculation

Two low-pathogenicity (LP) and two high-pathogenicity (HP) avian influenza (AI) viruses were inoculated into chickens by the intranasal route to determine the presence of the AI virus in breast and thigh meat as well as any potential role that meat could fill as a transmission vehicle. The LPAI viruses caused localized virus infections in respiratory and gastrointestinal (GI) tracts. Virus was not detected in blood, bone marrow, or breast and thigh meat, and feeding breast and thigh meat from virus-infected birds did not transmit the virus. In contrast to the two LPAI viruses, A/chicken/Pennsylvania/1370/1983 (H5N2) HPAI virus caused respiratory and GI tract infections with systemic spread, and virus was detected in blood, bone marrow, and breast and thigh meat. Feeding breast or thigh meat from HPAI (H5N2) virus-infected chickens to other chickens did not transmit the infection. However, A/lchicken/Korea/ES/2003 (H5N1) HPAI virus produced high titers of virus in the breast meat, and feeding breast meat from these infected chickens to other chickens resulted in Al virus infection and death. Usage of either recombinant fowlpox vaccine with H5 AI gene insert or inactivated Al whole-virus vaccines prevented HPAI virus in breast meat. These data indicate that the potential for LPAI virus appearing in meat of infected chickens is negligible, while the potential for having HPAI virus in meat from infected chickens is high, but proper usage of vaccines can prevent HPAI virus from being present in meat.     

Identification of risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus infection in poultry farms, in Nigeria during the epidemic of 2006-2007

We conducted a matched case-control study to evaluate risk factors for infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in poultry farms during the epidemic of 2006-2007 in Nigeria. Epidemiologic data were collected through the use of a questionnaire from 32 case farms and 83 control farms. The frequency of investigated exposure factors was compared between case and control farms by using conditional logistic regression analysis. In the multivariable analysis, the variables for (i) receiving visitors on farm premises (odds ratio [OR]=8.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.87, 36.97; P<0.01), (ii) purchased live poultry/products (OR=11.91; 95% CI=3.11-45.59; P<0.01), and (iii) farm workers live outside the premises (OR=8.98; 95% CI=1.97, 40.77; P<0.01) were identified as risk factors for HPAI in poultry farms. Improving farm hygiene and biosecurity should help reduce the risk for influenza (H5N1) infection in poultry farms in Nigeria.     

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) clades in Bangladesh, 2010 and 2011

Since the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 during 2005–2006, control programs have been successfully implemented in most affected countries. HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Bangladesh in 2007, and since then 546 outbreaks have been reported to the OIE. The disease has apparently become endemic in Bangladesh. Spatio-temporal information on 177 outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 occurring between February 2010 and April 2011 in Bangladesh, and 37 of these outbreaks in which isolated H5N1 viruses were phylogenetically characterized to clade, were analyzed.     

Protective efficacy of stockpiled vaccine against H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus isolated from a chicken in Kumamoto prefecture,Japan, in 2014

H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have spread worldwide, and antigenic variants of different clades have been selected. In this study, the national stockpiled vaccine prepared from A/duck/Hokkaido/Vac-1/2004 (H5N1) strain was evaluated for the protective efficacy against H5N8 HPAI virus isolated in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan, in April 2014. In the challenge test, all of the vaccinated chickens survived without showing any clinical signs and reduced virus shedding. It was concluded that the present stockpiled vaccine was effective against the H5N8 HPAI virus.     

Molecular epidemiology of avian influenza viruses circulating among healthy poultry flocks in farms in northern Vietnam

Repeated epizootics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 were reported from 2003 to 2005 among poultry in Vietnam. More than 200 million birds were killed to control the spread of the disease. Human cases of H5N1 infection have been sporadically reported in an area where repeated H5N1 outbreaks among birds had occurred. Subtype H5N1 strains are established as endemic among poultry in Vietnam, however, insights into how avian influenza viruses including the H5N1 subtype are maintained in endemic areas is not clear. In order to determine the prevalence of different avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including H5N1 circulating among poultry in northern Vietnam, surveillance was conducted during the years 2006-2009. A subtype H5N1 strain was isolated from an apparently healthy duck reared on a farm in northern Vietnam in 2008 and was identified as an HPAI. Although only one H5N1 virus was isolated, it supports the view that healthy domestic ducks play a pivotal role in maintaining and transmitting H5N1 viruses which cause disease outbreaks in northern Vietnam. In addition, a total of 26 AIVs with low pathogenicity were isolated from poultry and phylogenetic analysis of all the eight gene segments revealed their diverse genetical backgrounds, implying that reassortments have occurred frequently among strains in northern Vietnam. It is, therefore, important to monitor the prevalence of influenza viruses among healthy poultry between epidemics in an area where AIVs are endemic.     

A single vaccination of commercial broilers does not reduce transmission of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

ABSTRACT: Vaccination of chickens has become routine practice in Asian countries in which H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is endemically present. This mainly applies to layer and breeder flocks, but broilers are usually left unvaccinated. Here we investigate whether vaccination is able to reduce HPAI H5N1 virus transmission among broiler chickens. Four sets of experiments were carried out, each consisting of 22 replicate trials containing a pair of birds. Experiments 1-3 were carried out with four-week-old birds that were unvaccinated, and vaccinated at day 1 or at day 10 of age. Experiment 4 was carried out with unvaccinated day-old broiler chicks. One chicken in each trial was inoculated with H5N1 HPAI virus. One chicken in each trial was inoculated with virus. The course of the infection chain was monitored by serological analysis, and by virus isolation performed on tracheal and cloacal swabs. The analyses were based on a stochastic SEIR model using a Bayesian inferential framework. When inoculation was carried out at the 28th day of life, transmission was efficient in unvaccinated birds, and in birds vaccinated at first or tenth day of life. In these experiments estimates of the latent period (~1.0 day), infectious period (~3.3 days), and transmission rate parameter (~1.4 per day) were similar, as were estimates of the reproduction number (~4) and generation interval (~1.4 day). Transmission was significantly less efficient in unvaccinated chickens when inoculation was carried out on the first day of life. These results show that vaccination of broiler chickens does not reduce transmission, and suggest that this may be due to the interference of maternal immunity.