Global fishery dynamics are poorly predicted by classical models

Fisheries dynamics can be thought of as the reciprocal relationship between an exploited population and the fishers and/or managers determining the exploitation patterns. Sustainable production of protein of these coupled human‐natural systems requires an understanding of their dynamics. Here, we characterized the fishery dynamics for 173 fisheries from around the globe by applying general additive models to estimated fishing mortality and spawning biomass from the RAM Legacy Database. GAMs specified to mimic production models and more flexible GAMs were applied. We show observed dynamics do not always match assumptions made in management using “classical” fisheries models, and the suitability of these assumptions varies significantly according to large marine ecosystem, habitat, variability in recruitment, maximum weight of a species and minimum observed stock biomass. These results identify circumstances in which simple models may be useful for management. However, adding flexibility to classical models often did not substantially improve performance, which suggests in many cases considering only biomass and removals will not be sufficient to model fishery dynamics. Knowledge of the suitability of common assumptions in management should be used in selecting modelling frameworks, setting management targets, testing management strategies and developing tools to manage data‐limited fisheries. Effectively balancing expectations of future protein production from capture fisheries and risk of undesirable outcomes (e.g., “fisheries collapse”) depends on understanding how well we can expect to predict future dynamics of a fishery using current management paradigms.     

Response of Scotian Shelf silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis) to environmental variability

Commercially‐exploited fish populations are not only shaped by fishing pressure, but also by the dynamics of their environment. By quantifying the influence of environmental variability, fisheries management advice can be improved and uncertainties reduced. To this end, we developed statistical models of the response of Scotian Shelf silver hake stock metrics to variability in zooplankton community composition and phenology over the past 18 years and in the physical environment since 1985. Dominant modes of variability in these pelagic habitat indicators were characterized using principal component analysis, and the relationships of silver hake condition, abundance, and recruitment to pelagic habitat variability were assessed using generalized additive models. Condition was largely modulated by the onset and duration of the spring bloom, which controls food availability. In contrast, adult abundance was governed by composition of the zooplankton community and bottom‐water temperature, which dictates the distribution of silver hake. Finally, recruitment was affected by both thermal conditions and food availability. Our results presented here form the basis for qualitative assessment of ecosystem attributes and the influence on silver hake stock productivity.     

Modelling recruitment dynamics of hake, Merluccius merluccius, in the central Mediterranean in relation to key environmental variables

Hake recruitment has been examined in relation to environmental variables in two of the main reproductive areas of the central Mediterranean, the northern and central Tyrrhenian Sea. Seventeen years time series data from trawl surveys revealed high fluctuations in recruit abundance that could not be just explained by spawning biomass estimations. Generalized additive models were developed to investigate hake recruitment dynamics in the Tyrrhenian Sea in relation to spawner abundance and selected key oceanographic variables. Environmental data were explored in attempt to explain survival processes that could affect early life history stages of hake and that accounted for high fluctuations in its recruitment.Thermal anomalies in summer, characterised by high peaks in water temperature, revealed a negative effect on the abundance of recruits in autumn, probably due to a reduction in hake egg and larval survival rates. In the northern Tyrrhenian, recruitment was reduced when elevated sea-surface temperatures were coupled with lower levels of water circulation. Enhanced spring primary production, related to late winter low temperatures could affect water mass productivity in the following months, thus influencing spring recruitment. In the central Tyrrhenian a dome-shaped relationship between wind mixing in early spring and recruitment could be interpreted as an “optimal environmental window” in which intermediate water mixing level played a positive role in phytoplankton displacement, larval feeding rate and appropriate larval drift. Results are discussed in relation to the decline in hake stock biomass and within the present climate change and global warming context.     

Dynamic angling effort influences the value of minimum‐length limits to prevent recruitment overfishing

Recruitment overfishing occurs when stocks are fished to a level where recruitment declines proportionally with adult abundance. Although typically considered a commercial fishery problem, recruitment overfishing can also occur in freshwater recreational fisheries. This study developed an age‐structured model to determine if minimum‐length limits can prevent recruitment overfishing in black crappie, Pomoxis nigromaculatus (LeSueur), and walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill) fisheries considering angling effort response to changes in fish abundance. Simulations showed that minimum‐length limits prevented recruitment overfishing of black crappie and walleye, but larger minimum‐length limits were required if angler effort showed only weak responses to changes in fish abundance. Low angler‐effort responsiveness caused fishing mortality rates to remain high when stock abundance declined. By contrast, at high effort responsiveness, anglers left the fishery in response to stock declines and allowed stocks to recover. Angler effort for black crappie and walleye fisheries suggested that angler effort could be highly responsive for some fisheries and relatively stable for others, thereby increasing the risk of recruitment overfishing in real fisheries. Recruitment overfishing should be considered seriously in freshwater recreational fisheries, and more studies are needed to evaluate the responsiveness of angler effort to changes in fish abundance.     

Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

基于分期的实际种群分析法研究

实际种群分析法(virtual population analysis,VPA)是开展渔业资源评估最有效的技术之一,一般以世代为基础开展评估.基于实际渔业存在渔汛期、休渔期等特点,本研究运用分期评估的概念对传统实际种群分析进行了扩展,即分期种群分析法,并根据不同时期的捕捞死亡特征,评估与分析了4种不同分期情景对评估结果的影响.模拟研究表明,由于分期不当造成评估结果的误差为6％～33％.文中一并给出了开展分期实际种群分析法对资料收集和参数评估的要求.该方法克服了传统实际种群分析法中没有全面分期产生的误差,使其扩展至适合于评估全年捕捞死亡率不稳定或非连续性渔业种群,评估结果也更接近于评估种群的真实值.     

Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year-class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska

NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma ) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree-modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years.     

Harvest models and stock co‐occurrence: probabilistic methods for estimating bycatch

A primary goal of ecosystem‐based fishery management is to reduce non‐target stock impacts, such as incidental harvest, during targeted fisheries. Quantifying incidental harvest has generally incorporated fishery‐dependent catch data, yet such data may be biased by gear non‐retention, observation difficulties, and non‐random harvest patterns that collectively lead to an impartial understanding of non‐target stock capture. To account for such issues and explicitly recognize the combined influence of ecological and harvest factors contributing to incidental capture within targeted fisheries, we demonstrate a probabilistic modelling framework that incorporates: (i) background rates of target and non‐target stock co‐occurrence as the primary ecological basis for incidental harvest; (ii) the probability of harvesting at localities exhibiting co‐occurrences; (iii) the probability of selecting for non‐target species with fishery gear; and, (iv) as a function of harvest effort, the overall probability of incidental capture for any non‐target stock contained in the species pool available for harvest. To illustrate application of the framework, simulation models were based on fishery‐independent data from a freshwater fishery in Ontario, Canada. Harvest simulations of empirical stock data indicated that greatest species‐specific capture values were over 4000 times more likely than for species with lowest values, indicating highly variable capture probabilities because of the combined influence of stock heterogeneity and harvest dynamics. Estimated bycatch–effort relationships will allow forecasting incidental harvest on the basis of effort to evaluate future shifts in fishing activity against specific ecosystem‐based fishery management objectives, such as reducing the overall probability of bycatch while maintaining target landings.     

Balancing resource protection and fishing activity: The case of the European hake in the northern Iberian Peninsula

One of the fundamental aims of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management is to ensure the long‐term sustainability of the fishery by protecting key life‐cycle habitats, such as recruitment areas. In this study, we apply a hurdle Bayesian hierarchical spatio‐temporal model that describes the abundance of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) recruits in the northern continental shelf of the Iberian Peninsula. Our findings clearly show four persistent nurseries, the main one being located along the continental shelf of the Artabrian gulf (off La Coruña). The preferential habitats identified for the hake recruits are areas within a bathymetric range of 120–200 m, with 15–16°C of Sea Surface Temperature, a Chl‐a concentration of 0.8–1.2 mg/m³ and low values of seabed rugosity (unconsolidated substrates). Searching for a compromise with fisheries, we also assess the degree of overlap of the main nursery areas with two fisheries footprints, a local one using Vessel Monitoring System data of trawl fishery of Marín, and a global one using Automatic Identification System data of different type of trawlers (bottom otter, beam and midwater trawls). The two fisheries footprints present different degree of overlapping in distinct areas, highlight the need of specific fleet‐adapted management rules in order to protect juvenile stages. We discuss that understanding the distributional patterns associated with key life stages, such as recruitment, and their interaction with fishing activities, is essential for applying appropriate spatial management measures and improving fishery sustainability.     

CPUE standardisation and the construction of indices of stock abundance in a spatially varying fishery using general linear models

Construction of annual indices of stock abundance based on catch and effort data remains central to many fisheries’ assessments. While the use of more advanced statistical methods has helped catch rates to be standardised against many explanatory variables, the changing spatial characteristics of most fisheries data sets provide additional challenges for constructing reliable indices of stock abundance. After reviewing the use of general linear models to construct indices of annual stock abundance, potential biases which can arise due to the unequal and changing nature of the spatial distribution of fishing effort are examined and illustrated through the analysis of simulated data. Finally, some options are suggested for modelling catch rates in unfished strata and for accounting for the uncertainties in the stock and fishery dynamics which arise in the interpretation of spatially varying catch rate data.     

Estimation of the overall fishing power: A study of the dynamics and fishing strategies of Brittany's industrial fleets

The present paper suggests a method for estimating the fishing power of vessels and for analysing fleet dynamics. The approach is based on quantification of stocks catchability (q), derived from fishing mortality coefficients (F) as calculated by virtual population analysis. Catchabilities for each harvested stock are thus estimated relatively to the fishing effort (f_n) of each vessel, according to the equation: q = (F/f_n). A linear model is then fitted to these catchabilities. The model allows the identification and quantification of trends in average mortality rates per fishing hour for each stock. Under some assumptions, trends are interpreted as variations in the overall fishing power of each fleet. The approach is applied to three industrial and semi-industrial fleets of Brittany (Lorient, Concarneau and Douarnenez) and to the main gadoid stocks they exploit off the west coast of Scotland (ICES area VIa), and in the Celtic Sea (ICES area VIIf,g,h) for Concameau. Results show large variations in fishing power. Particularly, a marked increase trend in the fishing power exerted on saithe (Pollachius virens) is highlighted for the three fleets, over the period 1983–1989. These variations can be explained by the redirection of fishing strategies, which may occur on a large scale. Thus, we show how the collapse of saithe stock at first led the three fleets to intensify the harvesting of saithe, and from 1989 on, to adopt different strategies. The possible causes of the observed dynamics are discussed, as well as their consequences for fisheries management. In particular, the relevance of direct control of fishing effort as a regulatory tool is questioned.     

Behavioural diversity in fishing—Towards a next generation of fishery models

Despite improved knowledge and stricter regulations, numerous fish stocks remain overharvested. Previous research has shown that fisheries management may fail when the models and assessments used to inform management are based on unrealistic assumptions regarding fishers' decision‐making and responses to policies. Improving the understanding of fisher behaviour requires addressing its diversity and complexity through the integration of social science knowledge into modelling. In our paper, we review and synthesize state‐of‐the‐art research on both social science's understanding of fisher behaviour and the representation of fisher decision‐making in scientific models. We then develop and experiment with an agent‐based social–ecological fisheries model that formalizes three different fishing styles. Thereby we reflect on the implications of our incorporation of behavioural diversity and contrast it with the predominant assumption in fishery models: fishing practices being driven by rational profit maximizing. We envision a next generation of fisheries models and management that account for social scientific knowledge on individual and collective human behaviours. Through our agent‐based model, we demonstrate how such an integration is possible and propose a scientific approach for reducing uncertainty based on human behavioural diversity in fisheries. This study serves to lay the foundations for a next generation of social–ecological fishery models that account for human behavioural diversity and social and ecological complexity that are relevant for a realistic assessment and management of fishery sustainability problems.     

Using fisheries-independent survey data to reinforce China’s data-limited fisheries management: Management strategy evaluation of survey-based management procedures

Fisheries-independent survey data are vital to stock assessment and management because they provide reliable information on stock status. Although survey data have been increasingly recognised for their contributions to fisheries management, they have often not been adequately used to provide quantitative management recommendations for China's fisheries that are subject to limited data. In the present study, a framework was proposed to integrate two types of survey-based management procedures (MPs) into China's fisheries management: the slope-based MP and the target-based MP. Specifically, the former generates fishing effort limits based on the trend in recent years’ abundance index, while the latter sets effort limits based on a static abundance index target. To test the performance of these MPs, management strategy evaluation was performed using a simulated fishery based on the small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis (Bleeker) in Haizhou Bay, China. The sensitivity of MPs was investigated under different algorithm parameterisations and historical exploitation levels. Additionally, their robustness was evaluated in the face of survey uncertainty and changes in recruitment success. Both MPs could effectively improve the stock status compared with the status quo management when appropriately parameterised regardless of exploitation history. The target-based MP was more robust to survey uncertainty than the slope-based MP. Non-stationary changes in recruitment success strongly impaired the management effects, while using recruitment-specific instead of the age-aggregated abundance index could slightly enhance their performance. This work indicates that survey-based MPs can address the current challenges in China's fisheries management and reinforce the status quo management practice with limited data and highlights the potential risks.     

An interview‐based approach assessing interactions between seals and small‐scale fisheries informs the conservation strategy of the endangered Mediterranean monk seal

1. Small‐scale fisheries may pose a serious threat to the conservation of marine mammals. At the same time various factors have led to the decline of small‐scale fisheries, often making them unsustainable. Current rates of biodiversity loss and the reduction of fish stocks and fisheries dictate a thorough understanding of fisheries‐related issues and the implementation of effective management actions.
2. The Mediterranean monk seal is one of the most endangered marine mammals on Earth; its survival in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is threatened by negative interactions with fisheries. A nationwide questionnaire survey among fishers and port police authorities was carried out in Greece to describe the main characteristics of small‐scale fisheries, and to understand the nature and assess the magnitude of negative interactions between the monk seal and these fisheries. Questionnaire information was verified by a second round of interviews during landings.
3. The main attributes of the fishers, their fishing boats, and their practices were characteristic of the small‐scale fisheries sector. Overfishing was considered the main reason for fish‐stock reduction, and negative interactions with marine mammals was considered the main issue for the fishing sector.
4. Monk seals were present, caused damage, and got accidentally entangled in fishing gear throughout Greece. Damage to fishing gear was recorded mainly during spring and summer, and on average affected 21% of all fishing trips and 1% of nets deployed during a fishing trip.
5. Based on these results, the implementation of general and specific nationwide fishery management and conservation actions are proposed. These actions are mainly aimed at improving fish stock status, changing the behaviour of the fishers, and mitigating seal–fishery interactions in Greece, while promoting the recovery of the Mediterranean monk seal in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

     

Modelling the effects of reserve size and fishing mortality for Caribbean queen conch Strombus gigas

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Vital population statistics of the exploited eel stock on the Swedish west coast

The population dynamics and exploitation of the yellow eel (Anguilla anguilla (L.)) stock on the Swedish west coast were studied. In contrast to a generally observed reduction in the recruitment of glass eels in Europe, including in Swedish waters, there was no indication of a decline in the total eel fishery yields along the Swedish west coast. Long-term records of daily catches as well as by test fishing results also shown that this stability in eel fishery yields has not been maintained by an increase in fishery effort, as the catch-per-unit-efforts in the past 20 years have been more or less unchanged. These findings implied that the number of recruits to the fishery has been rather stable, possibly indicating that density-dependent factors at the elver and yellow eel stages may moderate variations in glass eel recruitment. Total instantaneous rate of mortality was estimated from records on eel length distribution in the professional fyke-net fishery. The estimated total mortality rate in an isolated archipelago population on the west coast was chosen as an approximation of the instantaneous rate of natural mortality and net emigration in the west coast eel stock. The differences between these two estimates could, thus be regarded as the mortality that occurred due to fishing. It was found that the eel fishery was very intense and most fish were caught in small sizes, resulting in a low escapement rate of maturing fish.     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Fishing agreements in the lower Amazon: for gain and restraint

Abstract  Co-management agreements, whereby community rules for the management of local floodplain lake fisheries are legalised and enforced by the government, have become common in the lower Amazon. Agreements are intended to limit exploitation, in particular by commercial boats, to raise stock abundance and fisheries productivity for the benefit of local subsistence-oriented fishers and for conservation. A spatially replicated observational study was carried out to evaluate the performance of fishing agreements in terms of perceived rule compliance and actual impacts on fishing activities, catch and catch per unit of effort (CPUE, a measure of fisheries productivity and proxy for stock abundance). Perceived rule compliance was high, and this was corroborated by observed changes in fishing practices. Catch per unit of effort was significantly higher (by 48% on average) in areas subject to fishing agreements than in control areas without. Most likely this effect was attributable to the effective exclusion of mobile commercial fishing boats. Household fishing effort and catch in local communities were not significantly affected by the agreements, although a tendency towards slightly higher catches at lower effort was noticeable. In conclusion, the co-management agreements have led to greater local control over resources and brought significant productivity and conservation benefits.     

Long-term variability in spawning stock age structure influences climate–recruitment link for Barents Sea cod

Fish populations may spawn a vast number of offspring, while only a small and highly variable fraction of a new cohort survives long enough to enter into the fisheries as recruits. It is intuitive that the size and state of the spawning stock, the adult part of the fish population, is important for recruitment. Additionally, environmental conditions can greatly influence survival through vulnerable early life stages until recruitment. To understand what regulates recruitment, an essential part of fish population dynamics, it is thus necessary to explain the impact of fluctuations in both spawning stock and environment, including interactions. Here, we examine if the connection between the environment and recruitment is affected by the state of the spawning stock, including biomass, mean age and age diversity. Specifically, we re-evaluate the hypothesis stating that recruitment from a spawning stock dominated by young fish and few age classes is more vulnerable to environmental fluctuations. We expand upon earlier work on the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod, now with data series extended in time both backwards and forwards to cover the period 1922–2019. While our findings are correlative and cannot prove a specific cause and effect mechanism, they support earlier work and strengthen the evidence for the hypothesis above. Furthermore, this study supports that advice to fisheries management should include considerations of environmental status.     

海洋渔业捕捞优化模型及其可持续发展策略研究

基于经典的Logistic鱼群生长模型,解析海洋渔业渔场等捕捞强度优化问题,建立了最佳捕捞开始时间、最佳鱼群保有量、最佳捕捞强度和最佳捕捞投入的数学模型。在此基础上,研究了海洋渔业可持续发展策略。研究结果表明,捕捞船队的最佳投入与鱼群内在增长速率成正比,与捕捞系数成反比;渔场最佳的渔业资源量为渔场最大养殖能力的二分之一;渔场的最佳捕捞强度与渔场最大养殖能力和鱼群内在增长速率的乘积成正比。