Development and validation of standard area diagrams to aid assessment of pecan scab symptoms on fruit

Pecan scab (Fusicladium effusum) causes losses of pecan nutmeat yield and quality in the southeastern United States. Disease assessment relies on visual rating, which can be inaccurate and imprecise, with poor inter‐rater reliability. A standard area diagram (SAD) set for pecan scab on fruit valves was developed. A set of 40 images of diseased fruit valves with known severity was assessed twice by 23 raters. The first assessment was conducted without SADs, and the second assessment was made using the SADs as an aid. SADs improved rater accuracy (correction factor, C_b = 0·86 and 0·97, without and with SADs, respectively) and agreement (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient, ρ_c = 0·79 and 0·89 without and with SADs, respectively) with true values. SADs improved inter‐rater reliability (intra‐class correlation coefficient, ρ = 0·77 and 0·96 without and with SADs, respectively). The least accurate and precise raters without SADs improved more using SADs compared to the most accurate and precise raters. Experienced raters had significantly higher accuracy and precision compared to inexperienced raters, but only when unaided by the SAD set. There was no significant difference in time to assess images without SADs, but experienced raters using SADs were faster compared to inexperienced raters. There was a slight tendency for faster raters to assess more slowly, and slower raters to assess faster when using SADs. SADs improve rater estimates of pecan scab severity on fruit, and this SAD set should be useful for assessment where greater precision, accuracy and inter‐rater reliability are required.     

Development and validation of a standard area diagram set to assess blast severity on wheat leaves

This study aimed to develop and validate a standard area diagram set (SADS) to quantify the severity of blast, caused by Pyricularia oryzae, on wheat leaves. The SADs has ten levels: 0.1, 1, 5, 10, 22, 32, 42, 52, 62 and 72 % blast severity. To validate the SADs, 12 inexperienced raters estimated disease severity on 50 images of leaves from cultivars BR-18 (susceptible) and BRS-229 (partially resistant). Blast severity was first estimated without the use of the SADs on 50 leaves with a range of blast severity. The same raters evaluated the same 50 leaves using the SADs as an aid. The SADs improved accuracy (coefficient of bias, C _b ?=?0.88 and 0.99, without and with SADs, respectively) and agreement (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient, ρ _c ?=?0.84 and 0.96 without and with SADs, respectively) of the estimates of severity. The absolute error was (-) 52 % without the SADs and (-) 24 % when using SADs as an aid. Severity estimates were more reliable when using SADs (R²?=?0.87 unaided and R²?=?0.92 with SAD). The SADs proposed in this study will improve accuracy and reliability of estimates of blast severity on wheat leaves.     

Development and validation of a set of standard area diagrams to assess severity of gray mold in strawberry fruit

European Journal of Plant Pathology - Gray mold (Botrytis cinerea) is one of the main diseases that affect strawberries. Severity assessments of the disease in fruits have been mainly performed...     

Development and validation of a set of standard area diagrams to aid in estimation of spot blotch severity on wheat leaves

This study aimed to develop and validate a standard area diagram (SAD) set to quantify the severity of spot blotch, caused by Bipolaris sorokiniana, on wheat leaves. The proposed SAD set includes images of leaves with 11 distinct disease severities (0·1, 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 83%). The SAD set was validated by 12 raters without experience in evaluating plant disease. Lin's concordance correlation analysis of estimated versus actual disease severity (based on image analysis) showed that precision and accuracy improved for all raters using the SAD set in contrast to assessments made without it. The SAD set improved accuracy (coefficient of bias, C_b = 0·88 and 0·99, without and with the SAD set, respectively) and agreement (Lin's concordance correlation coefficient, ρ_c = 0·81 and 0·96 without and with the SAD set, respectively) of the estimates of severity. The severity estimates were also more reliable when using the SAD set (coefficient of determination, R² = 0·76 unaided and R² = 0·92 with the SAD set, and intra‐class correlation ρ = 0·79 without the SAD set and ρ = 0·95 using the SAD set). The SAD set proposed in this study will improve the accuracy and reliability of estimates of spot blotch severity on wheat leaves.     

Development and validation of a set of standard area diagrams to estimate severity of potato early blight

Standard area diagrams (SADs) to assess the severity of potato early blight (Alternaria grandis) on leaves of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) were developed and validated. The proposed SADs include images of leaves with 10 distinct disease severities (0.1, 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 %). The SADs were validated by 12 raters who had no previous experience in evaluating plant disease. Lin’s concordance correlation analysis of estimated vs. actual disease severity (based on image analysis) showed that precision and accuracy improved for most raters using the SADs, compared to assessments made without the SADs. The SADs improved accuracy (coefficient of bias, C _b ?=?0.97 and 0.99, without and with SADs, respectively) and agreement (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient, ρ _c ?=?0.91 and 0.98 without and with SADs, respectively) of the estimates of severity. Severity estimates were more reliable when using SADs (coefficient of determination, R ² ?=?0.80 unaided and R ² ?=?0.95 with SADs, and the intra-class correlation ρ?=?0.86 without SADs and ρ?=?0.97 using the SADs). The SADs improved raters’ ability to accurately, precisely and reliably estimate potato early blight severity, and as such can be used to assess severity for several purposes, including breeding for resistance, fungicide screening, and pathotype characterization.     

Development and evaluation of a standard area diagram set for the severity of phomopsis leaf blight on eggplant

A standard area diagram set (SADs) with eight severity values ranging from 0.5 to 32% was evaluated as a tool to improve the accuracy of the estimates of Phomopsis leaf blight severity on eggplant by ten inexperienced raters. A first assessment in a 50-leaf dataset of digital images was performed unaided (UN, no SAD). Two further aided (A) assessments, conducted two (A1) and four weeks after the first (A2) unaided one were performed. The precision of the estimates, as indicated by the Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), improved significantly when using the aid (A1: r = 0.96 and A2: r = 0.96) compared to unaided (UN: r = 0.79). However, the generalized bias (C _b) was not significantly affected because the unaided estimates were already quite accurate (C _b = 0.93). The overall concordance (ρ _c) was significantly improved due to the large gains in precision when using the SADs. The raters’ estimates were more uniform (ρ _c > 0.9) when using the aid, with progressive gains in the reliability of the estimates among them, indicated by the concordance correlation coefficient statistics. The SADs proposed in this study will be useful in severity estimation during field work involving multiple raters, especially as use of the SADs results in less variable estimates, improving accuracy and reliability among raters.     

Standard area diagram set for assessment of severity and temporal progress of apple blotch

Apple blotch (Marssonina coronaria) is a foliar disease of increasing importance globally. Methods to quantify the disease and knowledge about epidemiology are required for new studies on the disease. The objectives of this study were to develop a standard area diagram set (SADs) to assess apple blotch severity and to describe the temporal progress of the disease under field conditions on older and younger leaves of two apple cultivars. For the development of SADs, symptomatic leaves were collected and scanned to obtain the actual severity. Based on the pattern of the disease, a SADs was elaborated and validated. Leaf severities were estimated without and with SADs by 12 raters to validate the tool. After validation, the SADs was used to assess apple blotch in older and younger leaves of selected shoots during the vegetative cycle of cvs. Eva and Gala. SADs severities ranged from 0.2 to 96%. Accuracy, precision, and reliability of the estimates were significantly improved when the SADs was used. In the field, the onset of apple blotch was in late spring and greater increases in severity occurred during summer. Rates of disease progress ranged from 0.09 to 0.13. Epidemics were different in older and younger leaves at the end of the apple vegetative cycle for both cultivars tested. Our work provided a tool for apple blotch quantification and described the disease progress curve under subtropical conditions, which can contribute as basis for future studies.

     

A new standard area diagram set for assessment of severity of soybean rust improves accuracy of estimates and optimizes resource use

Soybean rust (SBR), caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi, is the most important yield-damaging fungal disease of soybean due to severe reduction in healthy leaf area and acceleration of leaf fall. In experimental research, SBR severity is estimated visually aided/trained by a standard area diagram (SAD) developed and validated during the mid-2000s (Old SAD). In this study, we propose a new SAD set for SBR with six true-colour diagrams following linear increments (c. 15% increments) amended with four additional diagrams at low (<10%) severities, totalling 10 diagrams (0.2%, 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 40%, 55%, 70%, and 84%). For evaluation, 37 raters were split into two groups. Each assessed severity in a 50-image sample (0.25%–84%), first unaided and then using either the Old SAD or the New SAD. Accuracy, precision, and reliability of estimates improved significantly relative to unaided estimates only when aided by the New SAD (accuracy >0.95). Low precision (<0.78) and a trend of underestimation with an increase in severity were the main issues with the Old SAD, which did not differ from unaided estimates. Simulation to evaluate the impact of the errors by different methods on hypothesis tests, showed that the new SAD was more powerful for detecting the smallest difference in mean control (e.g., 70% vs. 65% disease reduction) than the Old SAD; the latter required a 2-fold increase in sample size to achieve the same power. There is a need to improve some SADs, taking advantage of new knowledge and technology to increase accuracy of the estimates, and to optimize both resource use efficiency and management decisions.     

Improving sooty blotch and flyspeck severity estimation on apple fruit with the aid of standard area diagrams

Sooty blotch and flyspeck is caused by numerous species of fungi that colonize the surface of apple fruit and thereby lower its market value. Although this disease poses a substantial threat to apple growers’ profitability in some regions, reliable and cost-effective methods for epidemiological and disease control studies have not been validated, nor are they widely available. We modified a standard area diagram to aid sooty blotch and flyspeck severity assessments and quantified its impact on accuracy and precision of visual estimates. Samples of ‘Fuji’ and ‘Mutsu’ fruit were photographed both from the top and laterally. Severity was assessed from a sub-sample of 160 images using image analysis software. Validation of the diagram was performed by eight raters who independently assessed severity in two series of selected images representing the lateral view and the top view, initially unaided and subsequently with the aid of the scale. Severity estimates ranged from 0.4% to 98% (most fruit had <10% severity). Accuracy and precision of the estimates were significantly improved when using the diagrammatic scale; concordance correlation coefficient values increased from 0.81 to 0.95. A strong tendency to underestimate severity for the mid-range to high levels was minimized when using the aid, which also improved reproducibility of the estimates among raters. In addition to strengthening evidence that a standard area diagram can be used reliably in sooty blotch and flyspeck studies, we expanded its application to disease assessment in the peduncle region, which enhances the usefulness of the method for evaluating efficacy of management practices.     

Assessing disease severity: accuracy and reliability of rater estimates in relation to number of diagrams in a standard area diagram set

Error in estimates of plant disease severity occur and standard area diagrams (SADs) help improve accuracy and reliability. The effects of diagram number in SADs are unknown. The objective of this study was to compare estimates of pecan scab severity made without SADs, and using three‐, five‐, seven‐ or 10‐diagram SADs. Disease severity was estimated to the nearest percent (NPE), or classified to the closest reference diagram value using a scale. Twelve raters assessed 20 images of scabbed pecan valves with and without the SADs using NPEs and the scale method (values were converted to midpoints prior to analysis). Increases in diagram number using NPEs did not necessarily result in more accurate or reliable estimates. Inter‐rater reliability was positively correlated with number of diagrams using NPEs (r = 0·3288 (P < 0·0001)) or a scale (r = 0·2803 (P < 0·0001)). The least accurate estimates improved the most using SADs with NPEs, but the gain did not relate to number of diagrams; as few as three diagrams reduced error of inaccurate estimates as much as five, seven or 10 diagrams. When used as a scale, only estimates made with 10‐diagram SADs had similar accuracy and inter‐rater reliability to estimates made using SADs with NPEs. Maximum disease severity and the disease severity range for the pathosystem and the SADs are important factors and will probably influence resulting accuracy and reliability. The ramifications of diagram numbers in SADs and assessment methods on accuracy and reliability of disease estimates are discussed.     

A set of standard area diagrams to assess severity of frogeye leaf spot on soybean

European Journal of Plant Pathology - A set of standard area diagrams (SADs) was developed and validated to aid visual assessment of severity of frogeye leaf spot (FLS) caused by Cercospora sojina....     

Effects of rater bias and assessment method on disease severity estimation with regard to hypothesis testing

The effects of bias (over‐ and underestimates) in estimates of disease severity on hypothesis testing using different assessment methods was explored. Nearest percentage estimates (NPE), the Horsfall–Barratt (H‐B) scale, and two linear category scales (10% increments, with and without additional grades at low severity) were compared using simulation modelling to assess effects of bias. Type I and type II error rates were used to compare two treatment differences. The power of the H‐B scale and the 10% scale were least for correctly testing a hypothesis compared with the other methods, and the effects of rater bias on type II errors were greater over specific severity ranges. Apart from NPEs, the amended 10% category scale was most often superior to other methods at all severities tested for reducing the risk of type II errors. It should thus be a preferred method for raters who must use a category scale for disease assessments. Rater bias and assessment method had little effect on type I error rates. The power of the hypothesis test using unbiased estimates was most often greater compared with biased estimates, regardless of assessment method. An unanticipated observation was the greater impact of rater bias compared with assessment method on type II errors. Knowledge of the effects of rater bias and scale type on hypothesis testing can be used to improve accuracy and reliability of disease severity estimates, and can provide a logical framework for improving aids to estimate severity visually, including standard area diagrams and rater training software.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spongospora subterranea</Emphasis> soil contamination and its relationship to severity of powdery scab on potatoes

We investigated soil contamination by Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea (Sss) and disease severity of powdery scab in 29 potato fields in Hokkaido, Japan, using a hydroponic culture method with tomato seedlings as bait plants. The quantity of Sss infection on the roots of bait plants was evaluated using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and expressed in terms of the infection potential in the soil. The infection potential was positively correlated with the disease severity of harvested tubers, whereas the spore ball density determined using PCR had an indistinct relationship with disease severity. The infection potential can be useful in evaluating soil contamination and in applying countermeasures against powdery scab.     

西部社会、经济与生态互动发展效果的综合评价

西部地区经济、社会和生态的互动发展受到区域环境、政府政策和经济成本的三重约束。文中通过采用实证分析方法,对西部典型区域进行综合评价,分析其社会、经济与生态互动发展格局的演变规律,发现西部大开发实施的10年中西部地区社会、经济与生态互动发展格局演进趋势表现为：＂南动北静,发展存在南北差异＂;＂整体一致提高,但幅度不大,区...     

基于PERT与仿真技术的橘小实蝇传入定量风险评估

检疫性害虫传入风险定量评估是外来入侵有害生物控制的重要组成部分。本文应用计划评审法(PERT)和Monte Carlo仿真技术分析了2007年春夏两季(5～8月)入穗外地水果(香蕉、芒果、番石榴)经过采摘、运输、销售、丢弃等环节后,传入广州地区的橘小实蝇的数量及其风险概率。结果表明,橘小实蝇累计传入数量为590～598头,能够形成295～372对潜在交配成虫,经典PERT模型和Monte Carlo仿真的计算结果很接近,传入风险确实存在,为100%。同时灵敏度分析显示,遭受橘小实蝇危害的水果比例、1kg受害水果所含橘小实蝇幼虫的数量、有限时间内3龄幼虫的逃逸比率是影响害虫传入数量的3个最主要的因素。     

The validation and use of a life-cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests1

Progress in validating a computer model for simulating pest life cycles is described. Validation tests were done using the emergence times of four species of Tortricidae. The uses of the model in risk assessment of insect pests are discussed in relation to strengthening and reassessment of phytosanitary regulations as well as in eradication campaigns.     

Development and validation of a modified fugacity model of pesticide leaching from farmland

To test whether a simple model could provide reasonable quantitative estimates of chemical concentrations in a dynamic situation, Mackay's fugacity model was adapted to represent an agricultural field. The intention was to determine the extent of modification required to obtain reasonable agreement with experimental results, or indeed if such agreement could be achieved. The validity of the model was tested at Rosemaund Experimental Husbandry Farm in Herefordshire, where the chemical input and output could be monitored and meteorological and other parameters measured regularly. Results from monitoring concentrations of two pesticides at this site in recent years, and changes that have been made to the model in attempting to fit the observed behaviour are described.     

Breeding system and its consequence on fruit set of a rare sand dune shrub Eremosparton songoricum(Fabaceae:Papilionoideae):implications for conservation

The breeding system and its consequence on fruit set of Eremosparton songoricum(Litv.) Vass.,a rare shrubby legume occurring in moving or semi-fixed sand dunes of Central Asian deserts,were examined by manipulative experiments and observational studies in natural populations during the period of 2007-2009.The results showed that E.songoricum exhibits a mixed mating system.It is self-compatible,but depends strictly on pollinators to set fruits.Only two effective pollinators were detected and they triggered the specialized pollination mechanism(a 'brush type' and 'tripping mechanism').Geitonogamy becomes predominant in natural populations,because(74.5±1.3)% of visiting activity happened within or between inflorescences and(24.3±1.4)% occurred between ramets.As a result,inbreeding depression caused by geitonogamous selfing inevitably happened under natural conditions,showing 2.36 times less fruit set than was achieved by hand cross-pollination.The results explained the rarity of the species due to its breeding system,and will assist to develop suitable conservation strategies in severe desert environments.