Sheep scab outbreaks in Great Britain between 1973 and 1992: spatial and temporal patterns.

In January 1973, the mange mite Psoroptes ovis was found in a sheep flock in Lancashire, UK after a 20 year period of eradication. Over the next 20 years, a total of 1480 flock outbreaks were reported, until June 1992 when the control of sheep scab was deregulated. The spatial and temporal patterns of the number of outbreaks in each month over this period were analysed using time series methods, a geographical information system (GIS) and second order approaches to the exploration of space-time interaction (K-function analysis). The monthly time series displays clear evidence of seasonal cyclicity, with most outbreaks being reported in the winter months. After removal of the summer compulsory dip in 1988 however, there is evidence of a change in the seasonal pattern, with more cases being reported in the autumn months. There is also evidence of a contribution from a sinusoidal wave with a period of 8 years, which roughly corresponds to the major changes in the national control policy. The spatial pattern also appears to expand and contract on a roughly 4 year cycle, again reflecting the oscillating periods of success and failure. Examination of the spatial and temporal pattern revealed strong evidence of space-time clustering (p < 0.001) and a major contribution to the pattern from very local (< 12 km) spread within 5 months of an arbitrary outbreak.     

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: holding-associated risk factors for the disease

The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holding's first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30, 1986, and June 30, 1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holding's first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent CI 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent CI 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.     

Foot-and-mouth disease. Challenge of cattle after multiple vaccinations

Four groups of six cattle were vaccinated from two to five times at 6 month intervals with two different trivalent FMD vaccines licensed in the given year. The FMDV type A strains in the vaccines designated A5F and A5B were closely related. Three months after the last vaccination the cattle were challenged by contact with animals inoculated with the original field strain A5B. The inoculated animals developed typical FMD symptoms with vesicles in the mouth and on the feet. Those cattle which had received vaccines that did not contain strain A5B also became severely sick, even after five vaccinations. Animals vaccinated twice with type B containing vaccine were also not completely protected. A safe protection can obviously only be achieved for fairly short periods of time if vaccine and challenge strain are homologous. It is proposed to change the rules of licensing, to speed up the procedure to vaccinate in cases of outbreaks. The need for further research, especially into improving vaccines, is stressed.     

Foot-and-mouth disease. A review for the practitioner.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is perhaps the most infectious disease known to human and veterinary medicine. This article is written with the practitioner in mind, concentrating on early recognition, epidemiology, occurrence around the world, and sampling and diagnostic methods. The article stresses that there are numerous FMD viruses, and not all behave in a similar fashion. The practitioner must be acute in his or her herd inspection of animals in which vesicular disease is suspected and knowledgeable as to differential diagnosis.     

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: individual animal-associated risk factors for the disease

The objectives of this study were first to determine the cumulative incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population from July 1986 to June 1997, secondly, to identify individual animal-associated risk factors that influenced the age of onset of clinical signs in confirmed BSE cases, and, thirdly, to assess the effectiveness of the measures introduced to control BSE during the epidemic. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was individual adult cattle recorded on annual agricultural censuses between June 1986 and June 1996. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to characterise the age of onset of clinical signs. In total 167,366 cases of BSE were diagnosed in Great Britain up to June 30, 1997. The cumulative incidence of BSE between July 1986 and June 1997 was 1.10 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.10) cases per 100 adult cattle at risk. Cattle from the South east, South west and Eastern regions of England had 4.26 to 5.96 (95 per cent CI 4.15 to 6.14) times as great a monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE as cattle from Scotland. Compared with cattle born before June 1985, those born between July 1987 and June 1988 had 22.5 (95 per cent CI 22.1 to 22.8) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE, whereas those born in the 12 months after July 1988 had only 7.39 (95 per cent CI 7.24 to 7.54) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE. This reduction in hazard was directly attributable to the ban on the use of ruminant protein as a feed instituted in July 1988. Successive cohorts from 1989 to 1991 experienced further reductions in the hazard of experiencing BSE. The additional decrease in hazard observed for the 1990 cohort may be attributed to the effect of the Specified Bovine Offal ban instituted in September 1990.     

Foot-and-mouth disease. Infection trial in cattle after a single vaccination

Following an outbreak of FMD caused by an A5 strain in the spring of 1984, ten cattle were vaccinated with samples of the five commercial vaccines used for the vaccination campaign in that year, i.e. two animals per vaccine. Six weeks later the cattle were challenged by contact with animals inoculated with the virus strain isolated from the field outbreak. Seven of the ten cattle became severely ill, exhibiting the typical symptoms of FMD, one animal did not show any clinical symptoms, the remaining two weak ones that might have escaped recognition by the cattlemen. Virus could be recovered from the vaccinated animals from days 2 to 10 following contact with the non-vaccinated infected cattle. It was concluded that a single vaccination does not protect cattle against the isolate.     

Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months.

In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.     

Newcastle disease outbreaks in fowl in Great Britain during 1984

During February to July 1984, 23 outbreaks of Newcastle disease were confirmed in chickens in Great Britain. Use of available mouse monoclonal antibodies enabled unequivocal identification of the virus responsible for 22 of the outbreaks as similar to the avian paramyxovirus type 1 (A/PMV-1) virus causing neurotropic disease in pigeons during 1983 and 1984. Epidemiological investigations presented evidence that 19 of these outbreaks occurred either directly or indirectly as a result of spread from diseased pigeons infesting food stores at Liverpool docks. Virus was isolated from carcases of pigeons found among the food and samples of the food itself. The remaining outbreak was shown to involve a virus unrelated to the virus infecting pigeons.