基于分融策略的土壤采样设计方法

采样设计方法在地理要素空间分布推测中起着关键作用。采集的样点数量尽可能少且推测精度较高通常是采样设计的目标。此外,高效合理的采样方案应保证较高的推测可信度,同时尽可能避免冗余样点。传统的采样方法大多依靠增加样点个数来提高推测精度,且对样点集内部的冗余情况考虑较少。为获取更加高效合理的样点集,在环境条件越相似、地理要素越相似的假设下,通过环境相似度分析计算,得到样点的推测可信度和样点集内部的冗余度,并提出一种基于分融策略的样点设计方法。该方法在分化阶段将推测可信度低的样点进行分化,增加样点以降低推测不确定性,在融合阶段将环境条件过于相似的样点进行融合以降低冗余,通过多次分化融合最终使得推测可信度和冗余度均达到一定的预设标准,得到最佳样点方案。将该方法应用于美国Raffelson研究区的土壤采样,结果表明,该方法在分化阶段可以有效提高样点的推测可信度,在融合阶段能够有效去除冗余样点,最终可得到用于推测的高效样点。将本方法与传统的规则采样和分层随机采样进行对比,结果反映本方法获得的样点在同等数量下推测可信度更高,冗余度更低,更高效。     

基于近红外光谱的灌浆期玉米籽粒水分小样本定量分析

玉米灌浆期含水率测定是考种育种的重要指标。为了节约样本且快速准确测定灌浆期玉米水分,该文应用近红外光谱技术,提出了基于小样本条件下的自举算法(Bootstrap)与基于x-y距离结合的样本划分方法(SPXY,sample set partitioning based on joint x-y distances)相结合的样本优化方法的偏最小二乘(PLS,partial least square)水分定量分析模型Bootstrap-SPXY-PLS模型。试验结果表明,当Bootstrap重抽样本次数等于500,样本数量大于等于10时,模型的性能稳定,并且随着样本数量增加,重抽样本次数相对减少;样本数量为10和50时,全谱Bootstrap-SPXY-PLS模型的预测均方根误差(RMSEP,root-mean-square error of prediction)均值分别为0.38%和0.40%,预测相关系数(correlation coefficients of prediction)分别为0.975 1和0.968 5,决定系数R~2分别为0.999 9和0.993 6;基于竞争性自适应重加权采样算法(CARS,competitive adaptive reweighed sampling)波长变量筛选后的CARS-Bootstrap-SPXY-PLS模型的预测均方根误差RMSEP均值分别为0.36%和0.35%,预测相关系数分别为0.973 6和0.975 0,模型决定系数R~2分别为0.924 5和0.918 0。因此,全谱Bootstrap-SPXY-PLS模型和CARS-Bootstrap-SPXY-PLS模型均具有稳定的预测能力,为玉米育种时灌浆期种子水分测定提供了一种稳定、高效的方法。     

Resampling Unbalanced Ranked Set Samples With Applications in Testing Hypothesis About the Population Mean

Ranked set sampling is a sampling approach that could lead to improved statistical inference when the actual measurement of the variable of interest is difficult or expensive to obtain but sampling units can be easily ordered by some means without actual quantification. In this paper, we consider the problem of bootstrapping an unbalanced ranked set sample (URSS) where the number of observations from each artificially created stratum can be unequal. We discuss resampling a URSS through transforming it into a balanced RSS and extending the existing algorithms. We propose two methods that are designed to obtain resamples from the given URSS. Algorithms are provided and several properties, including asymptotic normality of estimates, are discussed. The proposed methods are compared with the parametric bootstrap using Monte Carlo simulations for the problem of testing a hypothesis about the population mean.     

基于Kriging估计误差的县域耕地等级监测布样方法

为了监测耕地的质量等级,通常采取抽样调查的方法.由于空间样本间存在不独立性等原因,传统抽样方法效率低、精度不高.为此,该文提出基于Kriging估计误差的布样方法,定义了反映Kriging估计情况的统计量作为评估监测网的标准,通过分析样本量与抽样精度的变化趋势确定最优样本容量,将调整过的方形格网作为监测网的基础,在泰森多边形限制下对监测网优化增密,并选用部分标准样地作为监测点.以北京市大兴区为例对该方法进行验证,结果表明,当监测点数同为48时,该文方法均方根误差小于简单随机抽样、分层抽样以及单一使用格网布样的方法,预测总体均值的相对误差为0.07%.因此,该文方法使用较少的监测点反映县域耕地等级的分布状况和变化趋势,能够满足县域耕地等级监测的需求.     

不同样点数量对土壤有机质空间变异表达的影响

以南京市六合区为研究区,通过完全随机和限制最小采样间距抽样分别设置5个样点系列,基于每个样点系列100次重复抽样的变异结构推断及空间预测误差结果,探讨了不同样点数量对土壤有机质(SOM)空间变异表达的影响。结果表明,两种抽样方式降低样点数量后推断的SOM含量的块金效应(C0/C0+C)均随样点数量减少而降低且限制最小采样间距抽样推断的C0/C0+C要低于完全随机抽样方法,说明适当的减少样点数量以便降低与SOM变异尺度不匹配的样点对变异结构推断的影响有助于提高SOM空间变异结构表达的可靠性。普通Kriging预测的SOM误差对比则表明,尽管两种抽样方式下空间预测的均方根误差(RMSE)随样点数量变化而波动,但均低于全部样点的预测误差;通过限制最小采样间距减少样点至250个时,SOM空间预测的RMSE最低,较全部样点预测误差降低了6%,因此,为了实现样点密度与SOM变异尺度相匹配,合理设置土壤采样点的间距及样点数量较单纯的增加采样点数量更为重要。     

土壤制图中多等级代表性采样与分层随机采样的对比研究

采样设计是土壤地理研究中备受关注的重要问题。本文以区域尺度土壤属性制图为例,将多等级代表性采样与经典采样中的分层随机采样进行对比研究。以安徽宣城研究区的表层砂粒含量为目标要素,采集数量均为59个的两套样点,设计不同数量(46、58和59)的样点分组,采用两种制图方法进行制图并利用独立验证点进行评价。结果表明:1)无论是采用多元线性回归方法还是基于环境相似度的制图方法,在同等样点数量下,利用代表性样点所得土壤图精度均高于利用随机样点所得精度,并且利用少量代表性样点(46个)所得土壤图精度也高于利用多量随机样点(59个)所得精度;2)随着代表性较低样点的增加,土壤制图精度基本有一个提高的趋势,而采用随机样点所得土壤图的精度波动较大。因此,可认为多等级代表性采样方法是一种可用于区域尺度土壤调查的有效采样方法,且比分层随机采样高效、稳定。     

土壤有机质可见光-近红外光谱预测样本优化选择

土壤有机质可见光-近红外光谱预测中建模样本的优化选择对提高有机质模型估算精度具有重要作用。本文以湟水流域土壤有机质为例,采用基于土壤单一属性信息考虑的建模样本选择方法:浓度梯度法、Kennard-Stone(KS)方法,以及基于土壤多种信息考虑的建模样本选择方法:Rank-KS(RKS)法、土壤类型结合浓度梯度法以及土壤类型结合KS法。通过偏最小二乘回归建模,探索可见光–近红外光谱预测青海湟水流域有机质的最优样本集。结果表明:不同级别样本数的最佳建模样本选择方法不同,整体表现为基于土壤多种信息挑选的建模样本集的模型精度相比土壤单一信息均较高,特别是KS方法结合土壤类型后的建模样本集模型精度明显提高且在样本数较少时更为明显。土壤类型可以优化建模样本选择方法提高模型预测精度。在保证固定验证样本模型预测精度的情况下,土壤类型参与建模样本的选择可以有效减少建模样本数,进而降低了建模成本。     

短距离样点对土壤呼吸空间变异预测精度的影响

不同采样设计会对土壤呼吸空间变异特征的预测精度产生重要影响。本研究选取黄淮海平原北部潮土区1 km×1 km夏玉米样地,在7×7单元规则格网(样点间距167 m)、完全随机(样点平均间距433 m)以及3×3单元规则格网+完全随机(样点平均间距405m)3种布点方式的基础上,保持样本总量(49)不变,以占总样点2%～14%的短距离样点(样点间距4m)随机替换原方案相应样点个数的方法优化布点方式,应用普通克里金法插值,以均方根误差(RMSE)和确定系数(R2)作为验证指标,检验基于3种布点方式设置的短距离样点对土壤呼吸空间变异预测精度的影响。结果表明:研究区土壤呼吸平均速率为2.65μmol·m?2·s?1,空间分布均呈西高东低,表现出中等程度变异。采样设计对土壤呼吸空间分布的预测精度影响显著,基于3种布点方式设置短距离样点可提高预测精度7%～13%。无短距离样点替换时,规则格网+完全随机的布点方式最优,比完全随机布点和规则格网布点的空间插值预测精度分别提高10%和22%;设置短距离样点替换后,在最优布点方式(规则格网+完全随机)中,对土壤呼吸空间变异的预测精度可再提高4%～7%,其中短距离样点个数占样本总量10%对土壤呼吸空间变异预测精度的提高最为明显。研究发现,基于相同的样本数量设置短距离样点可增加区域范围内样点密度,提高土壤呼吸空间变异预测精度及试验结果的可靠性。因此,在黄淮海平原北部潮土区100 hm2尺度的夏玉米样地中,规则格网+完全随机+10%短距离样点的布点方式是预测土壤呼吸空间变异最适宜的采样布点方式。     

基于空间模拟退火算法的最优土壤采样尺度选择研究

以研究区0.5 km×0.5 km(尺度a)网格的7050个样点为基础,分别得到1 km×1 km网格的1757个样点(尺度b),2 km×2 km网格的444个样点(尺度c),4 km×4 km网格的110个样点(尺度d),以土壤有机质(SOM)为目标属性,运用模拟退火算法对4种采样尺度的土壤样点进行优化选择,确定区...     

基于样点个体代表性的大尺度土壤属性制图方法

大空间尺度范围的土壤属性分布信息是陆地表层过程模拟的基础信息.基于野外样点进行空间插值是获得土壤属性空间分布信息的重要手段.现有的空间插值方法通常要求所用样点对研究区土壤属性空间分布规律具有良好的全局代表性.然而,受采样经费和野外采样条件的限制,所采集的样点往往难以全面地反映研究区土壤属性的空间分布规律.基于这样的样点用现有空间插值方法得到的土壤属性分布图通常精度较低,并且由样点全局代表性差带来的推测不确定性也无法得到度量.为了合理利用这些已采集的但全局代表性不好的样点,本文提出了基于样点“个体代表性”推测土壤属性空间分布并度量推测不确定性的方法.该方法在两点环境条件越相似、土壤属性就越相似的假设下,认为每一样点可以代表与其环境条件相似的地区,并且代表程度可以由两点的环境相似度度量;通过分析环境相似度计算推测不确定性,并以环境相似度为权重计算样点可代表地区的土壤属性值.将该方法应用于推测新疆伊犁地区土壤表层有机质含量,经验证,本文方法能够有效地利用全局代表性差的样点推测样点能够代表地区的土壤属性空间分布,并且所得的推测不确定性与预测残差呈现正向关系,能够有效地指示推测结果的可靠程度.     

基于时空变异的旱地土壤有机碳高效采样策略研究

土壤有机碳(SOC)空间分布具有时序差异性,明确样点数量对不同时期SOC预测精度影响是制定高效采样策略的基础.选取3.93×104 km2江苏北部旱地作为案例区,运用普通克里金插值方法,分析样点数量对不同时期SOC空间预测精度的影响.结果表明:不同数量样点数据集下1980年苏北旱地SOC预测值与实测值的相关系数r和均方...     

Influence of the number of samples on prediction error of visible and near infrared spectroscopy of selected soil properties at the farm scale

This paper reports on the influence of the number of samples used for the development of farm‐scale calibration models for moisture content (MC), total nitrogen (TN) and organic carbon (OC) on the prediction error expressed as root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for visible and near infrared (vis‐NIR) spectroscopy. Fresh (wet) soil samples collected from four farms in the Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark and the UK were scanned with a fibre‐type vis‐NIR, AgroSpec spectrophotometer with a spectral range of 305–2200 nm. Spectra were divided into calibration (two thirds) and prediction (one third) sets and the calibration spectra were subjected to a partial least squares regression (PLSR) with leave‐one‐out cross‐validation using Unscrambler 7.8 software. The RMSEP values of models with a large sample number (46–84 samples from each farm) were compared with those of models developed with a small sample number (25 samples selected from the large sample set of each farm) for the same variation range. Both large‐set and small‐set models were validated by the same prediction set for each property. Further PLSR analysis was carried out on samples from the German farm, with different sample numbers of the calibration set of 25, 50, 75 and 100 samples. Results showed that the large‐size dataset models resulted in smaller RMSEP values than the small‐size dataset models for all the soil properties studied. The results also demonstrated that with the increase in sample number used in the calibration set, RMSEP decreased in almost linear fashion, although the largest decrease was between 25 and 50 samples. Therefore, it is recommended that the number of samples should be chosen according to the accuracy required, although 50 soil samples is considered appropriate in this study to establish calibration models of TN, OC and MC with smaller expected prediction errors as compared with smaller sample numbers.     

Incorporating limited field operability and legacy soil samples in a hypercube sampling design for digital soil mapping

Most calibration sampling designs for Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) demarcate spatially distinct sample sites. In practical applications major challenges are often limited field accessibility and the question on how to integrate legacy soil samples to cope with usually scarce resources for field sampling and laboratory analysis. The study focuses on the development and application of an efficiency improved DSM sampling design that (1) applies an optimized sample set size, (2) compensates for limited field accessibility, and (3) enables the integration of legacy soil samples. The proposed sampling design represents a modification of conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS), which originally returns distinct sample sites to optimally cover a soil related covariate space and to preserve the correlation of the covariates in the sample set. The sample set size was determined by comparing multiple sample set sizes of original cLHS sets according to their representation of the covariate space. Limited field accessibility and the integration of legacy samples were incorporated by providing alternative sample sites to replace the original cLHS sites. We applied the modified cLHS design (cLHS_adapt) in a small catchment (4.2 km²) in Central China to model topsoil sand fractions using Random Forest regression (RF). For evaluating the proposed approach, we compared cLHS_adapt with the original cLHS design (cLHS_orig). With an optimized sample set size n = 30, the results show a similar representation of the cLHS covariate space between cLHS_adapt and cLHS_orig, while the correlation between the covariates is preserved (r = 0.40 vs. r = 0.39). Furthermore, we doubled the sample set size of cLHS_adapt by adding available legacy samples (cLHS_adapt+) and compared the prediction accuracies. Based on an external validation set cLHS_val (n = 20), the coefficient of determination (R²) of the cLHS_adapt predictions range between 0.59 and 0.71 for topsoil sand fractions. The R²‐values of the RF predictions based on cLHS_adapt+, using additional legacy samples, are marginally increased on average by 5%.     

基于空间模拟退火算法的耕地质量布样及优化方法

耕地质量监测是保障耕地资源的永续利用,实现耕地产能提升、加强耕地资源的管理、保护、合理利用的重要措施,对实现持续粮食安全具有重要意义。该文提出了基于空间模拟退火算法的耕地质量布样优化方法,以空间模拟退火算法为基础生成一组最优样本,构成基础监测网络,在此基础上,通过多期耕地等级成果数据提取属性发生变化的分等因素和对应发生变化的区域,生成潜在变化区,并结合研究区实际情况辅以专家知识和异常监测点,对基础样本点进行增加、删除、替换等优化操作,生成最终监测样点。以北京市大兴区为例,最终确定布设55个监测样点,结果表明,该方法布设的样点在耕地质量预测方面的精度高于传统的随机抽样和分层抽样方法,能有效地预测县域耕地质量并监控耕地质量的变化情况。     

Composite sampling enhances the confidence of soil microarthropod abundance and species richness estimates

The quantification of abundance and species richness of soil microarthropods is most often severely hindered by extraordinary data variability, highly skewed frequency distributions, many extreme and zero counts, and small sample sizes. We developed a composite sampling technique to enhance the confidence of abundance and species richness estimates. Many soil cores (n ≥ 100) are sampled, animals extracted, the extracts pooled, mixed, and subsamples (aliquots) taken. Compared to the standard (separate sampling units), no microarthropods were lost or mechanically damaged during the compositing procedure. The confidence of abundance estimates was substantially greater in the composite than in the standard, although not for taxa of low abundance (< ≈ 10³ ind.m⁻²). Moreover, compositing was the superior technique in estimating species richness. The number of sampling units needed to recover a certain number of species with the composite was 70% of the standard method. We conclude that composite sampling is a promising alternative to the standard technique and may help to increase the generally low confidence of microarthropod field data. Finally, potential limitations of composite plans are discussed: a great number of field cores from an unbiased sampling plan have to be composited; comparisons between composites of unequal size should be avoided; all information on the variation among field cores is lost by compositing; parallel measurements of fauna and other variables in the same cores are not possible.     

基于时延神经网络的多深度土壤含水率预测

为精准预测大田土壤含水率,并掌握不同深度土壤含水率分布规律,针对大田土壤含水率时序数据的非线性特点及相邻深度土壤含水率间具有较强关联关系,该文建立3层时延神经网络大田多深度土壤含水率预测模型,用以实现对6个不同深度(10、20、30、40、50和70 cm)土壤含水率预测。利用试验法确定预测模型的隐含层节点个数、训练学习算法和训练集样本量。试验结果表明:隐含层使用10个节点,采用L-M(Levenberg-Marquardt)训练算法,采用45%样本集数据作为训练样本,55%作为测试样本集,对所建预测模型进行预测,10和20 cm的预测相对误差小于7%,而30、40、50和70 cm的预测相对误差小于4.5%。因此利用基于时延神经网络的多深度土壤含水率预测模型,可为掌握土壤含水率分布动态变化规律提出一种解决方案。     

Estimating species number under an inconvenient abundance model

Estimating the number of species in a biological community based on a multinomial sample of individual organisms is a classical problem in statistical ecology. A central issue in parametric estimation is the specification of a model of the relative abundances of species given their number. A common approach to this problem is to assume that relative abundances follow a symmetric Dirichlet distribution. This is mathematically convenient but is unconnected to work by ecologists on abundance distributions in real communities. In this article we describe ML estimation based on the sequential broken stick model that has been proposed for abundances. This model is defined mechanistically, requiring that the likelihood be approximated numerically. For this to be feasible, the likelihood must be based on a small number of summary statistics. We present simulation results that show that the observed number of species and the observed number of species represented by a single individual is a reasonable set of summary statistics on which to base estimation. We apply the method to two published data sets, one involving insect species on Mount Kenya and the other involving spider species in an Appalachian forest.     

Complementarity among sampling methods for harvestman assemblages

Tropical arthropod surveys generally use a combination of complementary sampling methods to increase the detection of species and individuals, and to decrease the number of singletons. However, given the high arthropod abundance and the taxonomic challenges of arthropod surveys, the combination of different sampling methods may be inefficient and may increase survey costs. Harvestmen were sampled using beating tray, nocturnal search, leaf-litter manual sorting and Winkler apparatus in 70 plots distributed in two areas in Central Amazonia. Every sampled method documented different assemblages, and only the nocturnal search method proved to be efficient in representing both harvestmen richness and composition. Given the data collected from leaf-litter manual sorting, Winkler apparatus and beating tray can be used in inventories to increase the number of species collected, but may be less useful for applied or monitoring studies. Although pooling data from three methods was effective to obtain an overview of species richness, it may not be the more efficient strategy for studies of assemblage associations with environmental variables. As each method may sample distinct assemblages that have different responses to the surrounding environment, pooling data from these different methods may obfuscate patterns of assemblage composition related to environmental factors instead of clarifying them.     

Efficiently locating conservation boundaries: Searching for the Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease front

Conservation management actions and decisions are often defined by the location of ecological boundaries, for example, the present range of invasive or threatened species. The position of these boundaries can be cryptic, and managers must therefore directly sample sites, an expensive and time-consuming process. While accurate boundary location techniques have been considered by ecological theorists, the issue of cost-effective, or optimal boundary location has not. We propose a general framework for boundary location which incorporates both cost-efficiency and uncertainty. To illustrate its application, we use it to help locate an infectious disease front in the endangered Tasmanian devil population. The method ensures optimal spatial sampling by maximizing the expected information gained from each sample. When resources are limited, our method provides more accurate estimates of the boundary location than traditional sampling protocols. Using a formal decision theory sampling design encourages economically efficient actions, and provides defensible and transparent rationale for management actions.     

江苏省生物质能资源调查与评估方案设计

生物质能既是近期急需的补充能源,又是未来能源系统的基础。利用好生物质能既可以减少化石能源的使用,同时又有利于环境保护。该文以江苏省为例,制订了生物质能资源调查与评估方案和技术路线,提出了生物质资源调查采用面上资源普查、家庭能源消费抽样调查和主要生物质资源专项调查相结合的方法,制订了资源调查和农户抽样调查的具体方案,提出了生物质能源资源评价、供需平衡分析、资源预测、生物质资源利用现状分析的重点和方法,为省级生物质能资源调查与评估方案的制订提供了方法。