Studies on the replacement policies in dairy cattle. II. Optimum policy and influence of changes in production and prices

A dynamic programming model was developed to determine the optimum replacement policy of dairy cows. In the model cows were described in terms of lactation number, stage of lactation and the level of milk production during the previous and present lactations.The objective in determining the optimum replacement policy was to maximize the present value of net revenues from the present and subsequent replacement cows over a 20-year planning horizon. Milk and calf revenues, feed costs, carcass value, cost of replacement heifers and the probability of and financial loss associated with involuntary replacement were considered.The optimum replacement decisions corresponded with an average herd life of 42.9 months. Voluntary replacement accounted for 26% of all replacements.Changes in the price of a replacement heifer or the carcass price for culled cows had a considerable effect on the optimum replacement policy. A reduction in the difference between the carcass value of culled cows and the replacement costs resulted in a higher rate of voluntary replacement. Changes in the price of milk, calves or feed, the production level of the herd or the rate of genetic improvement did not greatly affect the optimum replacement policy.The financial advantage of a reduction in involuntary disposal rates increased when voluntary replacement of cows according to the optimum policy took place. These changes in voluntary replacement rates however reduced the effect on the optimum average herd life of cows.     

Economic aspects of reproductive failure in dairy cattle. II. The decision to replace animals

Until now, economic research to support the dairy farmer's policy with respect to the replacement decision has mainly been concerned with culling for production. However, in most cases the replacement decision for cows suffering from ill health or the after-effects thereof is also an economic one. In this paper the question approached is: how long is it profitable to continue inseminating dairy cows with poor fertility, and differing in age and productive capacity, before the decision to cull them must be made? At each heat, the criterion for the decision is that a cow should be inseminated with the aim of retention if the sum of expected differences in profits during her remaining expected life in the case of pregnancy, compared with replacement at the optimal stage of the current lactation, still exceeds zero.This criterion has been expressed in an economic replacement model for dairy cows. The essence of the model is a comparison of expected incomes of a cow present in the herd with an average herd life of 4 lactations, an average calving interval of 365 days, age and stage of lactation) below which it is not profitable to inseminate empty cows has been calculated. This was done at 10 stages in each lactation, from 65 to 245 days after calving at 20-day intervals. In the first instance, these calculations were made within a herd with an average herd life of 4 lactations, an average claving interval of 365 days, an average milk production of slightly more than 5300 kg per cow per year and a genetic increase in milk production of 1% per year. Moreover, a time preference was assumed for present over future income (discounting).In this basic situation, it appeared to be profitable to continue inseminating cows with poor fertility for a long time: even up to 8–9 months after calving in young cows with an average production level or higher. It was concluded from a sensitivity analysis that the calculated critical production levels were practically independent of several factors, especially those (e.g., milk price) that affect the expected income of both the cow present in the herd and the replacement cow. Factors which did have a considerable influence were persistence of milk production during lactation, and repeatability of a longer calving interval of the cow concerned.Finally, the possible use of the present model for the replacement decision with respect to other diseases is discussed.     

Improved knowledge about conception rates influences the decision to stop insemination in dairy cows

The conception rate in dairy cows is dependent on a number of cow factors such as days in milk and insemination number. Unfortunately, some of these factors were not accounted for in optimal insemination and replacement decision models. By using wrong estimates of the conception rate, the calculated optimal insemination and replacement policy might differ from the real optimal insemination and replacement policy. The objective of this study was to evaluate different sets of conception rates with an increasing level of accuracy to determine the insemination policy. An existing dynamic program for optimal insemination and replacement was used to compare three different scenarios in the estimation of conception rates, based on the reproductive performance of Dutch dairy cattle: (i) constant conception rate throughout lactation, (ii) conception rate dependent on parity and months in milk, and (iii) conception rate dependent on parity, months in milk and insemination number. The time step of the model was 30.4 days (1 month). The discounted future cash flow of culling a cow at each time step (replace a heifer immediately) was compared with keeping that cow under optimal future decisions. The difference between immediate culling and optimal decisions is defined as the retention pay-off. The insemination value was calculated as the difference between the future cash flow between immediate insemination of a cow and waiting one time-step. The results show that the difference in the insemination values and the optimal time to stop insemination depend on parity, lactation stage and the relative milk yield. In older cows with equal milk yields and at the same months in milk, the insemination value was lower than in younger cows. Within a parity, the insemination value was higher for cows with a higher milk yield. On individual cow level, using more accurate conception rate as input in the optimal insemination and replacement model might reduce miscalculation of the economic consequences for at least of €20-€38 per cow per year. Basing insemination decisions on less accurate input of the probabilities of conception, however, did not have an economic consequence at the herd level. In conclusion, using the appropriate conception rate as input in the optimal insemination and replacement model would increase the precise decision for the optimal time to stop insemination and hence improve the reproductive management efficacy.     

Optimizing replacement of dairy cows: modeling the effects of diseases

We modified an existing dairy management decision model by including economically important dairy cattle diseases, and illustrated how their inclusion changed culling recommendations. Nine common diseases having treatment and veterinary costs, and affecting milk yield, fertility and survival, were considered important in the culling decision process. A sequence of stages was established during which diseases were considered significant: mastitis and lameness, any time during lactation; dystocia, milk fever and retained placenta, 0-4 days of lactation; displaced abomasum, 5-30 days; ketosis and metritis, 5-60 days; and cystic ovaries, 61-120 days. Some diseases were risk factors for others. Baseline incidences and disease effects were obtained from the literature. The effects of various disease combinations on milk yield, fertility, survival and economics were estimated. Adding diseases into the model did not increase voluntary or total culling rate. However, diseased animals were recommended for culling much more than healthy cows, regardless of parity or production level. Cows in the highest production level were not recommended for culling even if they contracted a disease. The annuity per cow decreased and herdlife increased when diseases were in the model. Higher replacement cost also increased herdlife and decreased when diseases were in the model. Higher replacement cost also increased herdlife and decreased the annuity and voluntary culling rate.     

Culling on low milk yield and its economic consequences for the dairy herd

Voluntary culling on low milk yield and the economic returns for herds with a stable number of milk cows was investigated for spring calving dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland. The analysis was conducted at annual involuntary removal rates: 15, 20 and 25% and replacement costs as percent of beef value 94, 126, 157%. Varying cow replacement rate above involuntary removal rate by voluntary culling increased milk sold per cow in year 16 to a maximum of +5 to +10% after practicing a fixed strategy for 16 years. Greatest absolute and relative gains in yield occur from voluntary culling at the lowest involuntary replacement rate. Voluntary culling up to 3 to 8 percentage units above involuntary cow replacement rate maximizes economic returns per cow in herd when the market price for replacement heifers exceeds 150% of their beef value. Maximum voluntary culling may be practiced for prices near or below beef value.     

Contribution of breed, cow weight, and milk yield to the traits of heifers and cows in four beef breeding systems.

Measurements were taken on 216 cows with 469 calvings for weight at weaning, condition at weaning, milk yield, milk fat percentage, milk lactose percentage, milk protein percentage, dry period feed intake, lactation period feed intake, total feed intake, first-service pregnancy rate, pregnancy rate, and days to pregnancy. Measurements were also taken on 183 heifers for first-service pregnancy rate, days to pregnancy, and age at first calving. The data spanned the years 1980 to 1988; animals belonged to one of four breeding systems: Hereford, small rotation (Angus, Gelbvieh, Pinzgauer, Tarentaise), large rotation (Charolais, Maine Anjou, Simmental), and Angus-large rotation (cows with Angus sires and large-rotation dams). Maine Anjou-sired cows had lower annual feed intake and Charolais-sired heifers lower first-service pregnancy rate than the other large-rotation breeds. Gelbvieh-sired cows had lower milk lactose and protein percentages than the other small-rotation breeds. Within breeding system neither cow weight nor milk yield were significantly associated with reproductive traits of cows. No differences among breeding systems in associations between feed intakes and weights or milk yields were detected.     

Genetic and Environmental Effects on the Productivity of Holstein–Friesian Cattle under the Climatic Conditions of Central Sudan

A herd of 370 Holstein–Friesian cows were maintained in Central Sudan, Khartoum for intensive dairy production during the period 1990–1996. The area is characterized by high temperatures during the day and cools down at night, with an average thermal-humidity index (THI) of 74.8. The average adjusted lactation milk yield, milk yield per day, milk yield per day of calving interval and lactation length of the animals in the herd were 5117±123 (SE) kg, 14.7±0.25 kg, 11.3±0.36 kg and 350±8.0 days, respectively. Heifers calved at 25.2±2.3 (SD) months of age. The variation was large, which suggested large environmental fluctuations. Sire variance contributed 1.35% and 19.6% to the total variance in cows and heifers, respectively, while cow within sire contributed 19%. The heritabilities of total lactation yield, 305-day yield, milk per day of lactation, milk per day of calving interval, and lactation length in heifers were 0.78±0.24, 0.36±0.34, 0.39±0.24, 0.23±0.23, and 0.23±0.22, respectively. In cows, the heritability estimates were 0.05±0.24, 0.06±0.24, 0.08±0.24, 0.00 and 0.00 for the same traits, respectively. The repeatabilities of total lactation yield, 305-day yield, milk per day, milk per day of calving interval and lactation length were 0.02±0.03, 0.22±0.03, 0.17±0.02, 0.05±0.02 and 0.00, respectively. Regression analysis showed that, for each unit increase in THI, milk yield decreased by 0.29±0.04 kg. The stress usually caused by the combined effects of temperature and humidity was not severe in this area.     

Estimation of milk production losses due to sub-clinical mastitis in dairy cattle in Costa Rica

Five dairy farms, situated on the slopes of the volcano Poás in the pre-mountain cloud forest ecological zone, Alajuela and Heredia Provinces, Costa Rica, provided data for estimation of the production losses due to sub-clinical mastitis. Within the same farm, cows with proven sub-clinical mastitis were matched with cows without signs of sub-clinical mastitis, according to breed, lactation number and days in lactation. A total of 529 cows were detected with sub-clinical mastitis, of which only 200 could be paired with control cows free of mastitis; each pair was used only once.

Crude milk production losses per cow with sub-clinical mastitis were estimated at 1.56 kg day⁻¹for daily milk yield. Milk production loss per affected quarter due to sub-clinical mastitis was estimated to be 17.6% on average. The decrease in milk production in heifers with sub-clinical mastitis did not differ significantly from the decrease in production in older cows. No significant difference in milk production loss was detected when the data were stratified on parity or the number of quarters affected.     

Disease,production and culling in Holstein-Friesian cows III. Disease and production as determinants of disease

The effects of the level of milk production and previous disease occurrence (both within the same lactation and in the previous lactation) on the risk of disease occurrence in Holstein-Friesian cows were investigated. The data were from 2875 lactation records from 2008 cows in 32 commercial dairy herds within a 50 mile radius of Guelph, Ontario.Discriminant analysis was applied to data from a subset of 817 cows which completed 2 lactations during the study. This was done in order to simultaneously evaluate the effects of the level of milk production and disease occurrence in 1 lactation, on the risk of disease in a subsequent lactation. Many diseases tended to recur in the second lactation, but the level of milk production was not related significantly to the risk of any of the common disease conditions. A path model, with previous lactation production entered as an exogenous variable, was constructed in order to further evaluate the role of the level of milk production as a determinant of disease. Only milk fever was significantly associated with the level of milk production.Relationships amongst diseases within a lactation were identified by a modified case-control procedure and were used to construct several path models. Relationships amongst diseases in heifers, mature cows and all cows combined are discussed.     

Test-day somatic cell score, fat-to-protein ratio and milk yield as indicator traits for sub-clinical mastitis in dairy cattle

Test-day (TD) records of milk, fat-to-protein ratio (F:P) and somatic cell score (SCS) of first-lactation Canadian Holstein cows were analysed by a three-trait finite mixture random regression model, with the purpose of revealing hidden structures in the data owing to putative, sub-clinical mastitis. Different distributions of the data were allowed in 30 intervals of days in milk (DIM), covering the lactation from 5 to 305 days. Bayesian analysis with Gibbs sampling was used for model inferences. Estimated proportion of TD records originated from cows infected with mastitis was 0.66 in DIM from 5 to 15 and averaged 0.2 in the remaining part of lactation. Data from healthy and mastitic cows exhibited markedly different distributions, with respect to both average value and the variance, across all parts of lactation. Heterogeneity of distributions for infected cows was also apparent in different DIM intervals. Cows with mastitis were characterized by smaller milk yield (down to -5 kg) and larger F:P (up to 0.13) and SCS (up to 1.3) compared with healthy contemporaries. Differences in averages between healthy and infected cows for F:P were the most profound at the beginning of lactation, when a dairy cow suffers the strongest energy deficit and is therefore more prone to mammary infection. Residual variances for data from infected cows were substantially larger than for the other mixture components. Fat-to-protein ratio had a significant genetic component, with estimates of heritability that were larger or comparable with milk yield, and was not strongly correlated with milk and SCS on both genetic and environmental scales. Daily milk, F:P and SCS are easily available from milk-recording data for most breeding schemes in dairy cattle. Fat-to-protein ratio can potentially be a valuable addition to SCS and milk yield as an indicator trait for selection against mastitis.     

The effect of periparturient treatment with fenbendazole on the milk production of cows

Cows and heifers from 22 herds were used in a trial to determine the effect on milk yield of anthelmintic treatment given at calving. Alternate animals were treated with either fenbendazole suspension or a placebo. Cows given fenbendazole showed a mean reduction in milk yield of 221 kg in the subsequent lactation compared with the placebo-treated cows, a difference which was statistically significant. In heifers no significant effect of the treatment was found on milk yield. When looking at the pooled data from both cows and heifers, the reduction in milk yield of the fenbendazole-treated animals was 151 kg, which also was statistically significant. The results indicate that anthelmintic treatment of dairy cows cannot be generally recommended in Norway.     

Economic consequences of immediate or delayed insemination of a cow in oestrus

Most dairy farmers are not certain whether immediate insemination or delaying the insemination is the best economic decision for a cow in oestrus. A model was developed for determining, based on herd and cow characteristics, the economic consequences of immediate or delayed insemination. The model was based on literature information and expert knowledge. In the model, the oestrus detection and conception rates were made cow-specific. The utility of the model was illustrated using a standard cow and data on 90 cows in oestrus (provided by 10 Dutch dairy farmers). The model suggested that for the majority of cows, the best decision is to immediately inseminate the cow in oestrus, but for most heifers with a flatter lactation curve the best decision was to delay the insemination. The economic effect of delaying the insemination was however small, on average -€18 per cow per year. Immediate insemination of an individual cow did result in relatively low economic benefits, but for a whole herd they can be substantial. This model can be used by farmers to help making the best economic decision for a cow in oestrus.     

荷斯坦青年牛初次配种妊娠月龄对头胎和二胎产奶量和繁殖性能的影响

旨在研究母牛初次配种妊娠月龄（age at first pregnancy,AFP）对其泌乳性能和主要繁殖性能的影响。本研究以我国北方地区2个规模化奶牛场13 927头荷斯坦母牛（A牧场8 091头,B牧场5 836头）的生产数据为基础,统计了母牛AFP、头胎和二胎的产奶量、产后首次发情时间、首次配种时间和首次受孕时间,然后将母牛根据AFP的早晚（12~19月龄）分为8组,对各试验组母牛的头胎和二胎产奶量和主要繁殖性能的数据进行比较分析。结果表明：1）2个规模化奶牛场荷斯坦青年牛AFP以13和14月龄为主（总占比70.1%）;2）AFP可显著影响荷斯坦青年牛头胎和二胎的305 d产奶量（P<0.05）,其中AFP为14月龄时A牧场头胎和二胎305 d产奶量均最高,分别为15 102和15 534 kg;3）AFP可显著影响荷斯坦青年牛头胎和二胎产后首次发情时间和受孕时间（P<0.05）,AFP为14月龄时头胎产后首次发情和受孕情况最优;4）对于产后首配时间,除A牧场头胎AFP为16月龄时产后首次配种时间显著高于AFP为17月龄时（P<0.05）外,其余各组间均无显著性差异（P ≥ 0.05）,并且各组间配种时间相差≤ 5 d;5）通过对A牧场在场牛（2 703头）与淘汰牛（660头）的AFP记录数据分析发现,在场牛的AFP为14.52月龄,显著高于淘汰牛的AFP（P<0.05）。因此,在北方地区现有的生产管理水平下,14月龄可能是荷斯坦青年牛最适宜的初次配种妊娠月龄,这对我国规模化奶牛场选择荷斯坦青年牛适宜的初次配种月龄具有一定参考价值。     

Clinical Study Report on Milk Production in the Offspring of a Somatic Cell Cloned Holstein Cow

This study examined two female offspring of a somatic cell cloned Holstein cow that had reproduction problems and milk production performance issues. The two offspring heifers, which showed healthy appearances and normal reproductive characteristics, calved on two separate occasions. The mean milk yields of the heifers in the first lactation period were 9,037 kg and 7,228 kg. The relative mean milk yields of these cows were 111.2% and 88.9%, respectively, when compared with that of the control group. No particular clinical abnormalities were revealed in milk yields and milk composition rate [e.g., fat, protein and solids-not-fat (SNF)], and reproductive characteristics of the offspring of the somatic cell cloned Holstein cow suggested that the cloned offspring had normal milk production.     

Effect of parity number on the dry matter intake of dairy cows during the first week after calving

We investigated the effect of parity number on the dry matter intake (DMI) of cows during the first week after calving. Eighty‐three cows were evaluated from 14 days before to 7 days after calving. DMI and milk yield were measured for 7 days after calving, and the calving score was measured. Blood samples were collected throughout the experiment. The average DMI during the first week after calving was reduced in the first‐lactation heifers and high‐parity number cows. A quadratic relationship between the parity number and the DMI was observed. The first‐lactation heifers had lower prepartum serum total protein (TP) concentration and milk yield, higher prepartum serum nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentration and calving score than the multiparous cows. The recovery rate of serum calcium (Ca) after calving was slow in the cows in the parity 6. The DMI was positively affected by the serum Ca concentration after calving, milk yield, and prepartum serum TP concentration and was negatively affected by the calving score and prepartum serum NEFA concentration. We conclude that the DMI immediately after calving tends to be lower in first‐lactation heifers and high‐parity number cows, but factors that reduce the DMI differ according to parity number.     

Performance and Economics of Dairy Cows Fed a Corn Silage-Based Total Mixed Ration or Grazing Annual Ryegrass During Mid to Late Lactation

Economic and performance characteristics of a low cost grazing system based on annual ryegrass vs a total mixed ration (TMR) for cows during mid through late lactation were evaluated. Cattle used in the trial (28 Holstein and 12 Jersey cows) were blocked by parity, lactation number, days in milk, projected mature equivalent milk yield, and current milk yield, and cows were assigned to two treatments in a randomized complete block design. For 10 wk (March through May 1998), cows either received a corn silage-based TMR or grazed annual ryegrass and received no supplemental concentrates. Changes in feed composition, milk yield, milk composition, BW, condition score, and income over feed costs were examined. Cows on Treatment 1 were fed the TMR twice daily and were housed together in a free-stall barn. Cows assigned to grazing were allowed ad libitum access to annual ryegrass in a rotational 12-paddock system. Loose mineral was provided for ad libitum consumption, but no supplemental concentrate was offered. Daily milk production by the TMR cows was consistent, ranging between 22.5 and 27.2 kg per cow throughout the study. By contrast, daily milk production of the grazing cows declined from 26.6 to 15.9 kg per cow as lactation progressed. Ryegrass grazing reduced milk fat content during wk 4 and 8 of the study and increased MUN content during wk 2 but had no effect on milk protein content or somatic cell count. The BW, body condition score, and estimated DMI of grazing cows were less than they were for TMR cows. Milk income for the grazing cows was less than that for the TMR cows throughout the study. However, feed cost for grazing cows was substantially lower than that for the TMR cows. Hence, income over feed cost (IOFC) was greater for grazing cows than for TMR cows in all but the last 2 wk of the study. These results indicated that annual ryegrass grazing was more profitable than feeding a TMR to cows in mid to late lactation. However, grazing cows did lose body condition, which could have a negative effect on milk production in the subsequent lactation.     

Management of dairy heifers and its relationships with the incidence of clinical mastitis

AIM: To describe aspects of management of dairy heifers before calving and determine risk factors for clinical mastitis postpartum in heifers, at the herd level, under pasture-based management systems in the Waikato and Taranaki regions of New Zealand. METHODS: Dairy herdowners (n=578) provided information via a prospective survey about their practices for rearing heifers and management of mastitis. A proportion of herdowners (n=250) subsequently provided data on the cases of clinical mastitis in their herds, including the date, cow identification, age and quarter affected from cases occurring in the 4 months after the planned start of calving (PSC) in the subsequent lactation. The relationship between management factors and the proportion of heifers diagnosed with clinical mastitis within a herd was examined using bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The herd average percentage of heifers with clinical mastitis was 13.6 (95% confidence interval (CI)=12.3-14.9)%, and multiparous cows with clinical mastitis was 9.0 (95% CI=8.2-9.8)% in the first 4 months of lactation. There were positive relationships between the proportion of heifers with clinical mastitis and average milk production per cow (kg milksolids/ lactation; p<0.001), number of cows milked per labour unit (p=0.003), stocking rate (<> 3.30 cows/ha; p=0.002), and incidence of clinical mastitis in multiparous cows (%/120 days; p<0.04), in the final multivariate model. The proportion of heifers with clinical mastitis per herd was lower in herds that milked their lactating cows in multiple groups (p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of clinical mastitis in heifers was significantly associated with management practices. It may be possible to reduce the incidence of clinical mastitis in heifers by modification of management practices at the herd level, and further studies are required to investigate this.     

过瘤胃保护蛋氨酸对奶牛生产性能的影响及经济效益分析

本研究采用在生产条件下的对比饲养试验,通过研究日粮中添加本实验室研发的过瘤胃保护蛋氨酸产品对泌乳高峰期和泌乳中期高产荷斯坦奶牛产奶量和乳成分的影响,验证了产品的性能与使用效果,并对经济效益进行了分析。试验选择2～5胎之间、日产奶量30kg以上、处于泌乳高峰期的荷斯坦奶牛20头,随机分为两组,试验组每头每天添加本实验室研发的过瘤胃保护蛋氨酸产品75g。试验结果表明:日粮中添加过瘤胃保护蛋氨酸产品可明显提高荷斯坦奶牛的产奶量(3.0kg/头.d,P0.05)和极显著提高牛奶的乳蛋白含量(0.27个百分点,P0.01),使乳脂肪含量略有降低(0.13个百分点,P0.05),对乳糖含量和乳干物质含量影响很小。在高产奶牛泌乳高峰期日粮中添加过瘤胃保护蛋氨酸能够获得可观的经济效益(8.54元/头.d)。     

Control of heifer mastitis: antimicrobial treatment-an overview

Initial studies in Louisiana, USA to determine the prevalence of mastitis in breeding age dairy heifers demonstrated that intramammary infections (IMIs) were present in 97% of heifers and 75% of quarters. Most common isolates were Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus hyicus, and Staphylococcus chromogenes; somatic cell counts (SCCs) ranged from 12.4 to 17.3 x 10(6)ml(-1). Histologic examination of Staph. aureus-infected quarters demonstrated significant reductions in alveolar epithelial and luminal areas, and increases in connective tissue and leukocytosis, illustrating limited secretory development and marked inflammation. A one-time infusion of various nonlactating cow antibiotic preparations into infected quarters during different stages of gestation but >45 days prepartum resulted in cure rates for Staph. aureus IMI of 67-100%. Mean SCC was 50% lower at calving for treated heifers, and milk yield over the first 2 months of lactation was 10% greater than that of untreated controls. Subsequent multiple herd studies, however, revealed that use of nonlactating cow therapy was beneficial only in herds exhibiting a high prevalence of heifer mastitis and not in low prevalence herds. Results of lactating cow antibiotic therapy infused 1-2 weeks prepartum demonstrated cure rates of 59-76% vs. 26-31.7% in untreated controls. In some studies, milk production during the first lactation in treated heifers was approximately 10% higher than untreated controls, and SCC were significantly lower; however, in other studies, prepartum treatment was successful in reducing prevalence of infection but had no effect on SCC or milk yield during the subsequent lactation. Thus, treatment of heifers is advantageous because the cure rate is much higher than during lactation, there is no milk loss, and risk of antibiotic residues minimal; however, successful therapy may not necessarily result in lowered SCC and increased milk production in all herds.     

A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied modelling principle. The validation problem in relation to the model was discussed. A comparison between real and simulated data using data from a published case report was shown to illustrate how user acceptance can be obtained.