Assessing the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 transmission through poultry movements in Bali,Indonesia

Indonesia continues to report the highest number of human and poultry cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. The disease is considered to be endemic on the island of Bali. Live bird markets are integral in the poultry supply chain on Bali and are important, nutritionally and culturally, for the rural and urban human populations. Due to the lack of biosecurity practiced along the supply chain from producer to live bird markets, there is a need to understand the risks associated with the spread of H5N1 through live bird movements for effective control. Resources to control H5N1 in Indonesia are very limited and cost effective strategies are needed. We assessed the probability a live bird market is infected through live poultry movements and assessed the effects of implementing two simple and low cost control measures on this risk. Results suggest there is a high risk a live bird market is infected (0.78), and risk mitigation strategies such as detecting and removing infected poultry from markets reduce this risk somewhat (range 0.67–0.76). The study demonstrates the key role live poultry movements play in transmitting H5N1 and the need to implement a variety of control measures to reduce disease spread.     

An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 in broiler breeders, Korea

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was diagnosed in broiler breeders, submitted to the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service in South Korea. Grossly, the dead breeders had lesions consistent with HPAI, including pancreatic mottling, splenomegaly, pulmonary edema and congestion, and hemorrhages in the mucosa of the proventriculus, gizzard and small intestine, and on the serosal surface. Microscopically, there were necrotized hepatitis and pancreatitis, lymphocytic meningoencephalitis, myocarditis, and interstitial pneumonia. Influenza viral antigen was demonstrated in areas closely associated with histopathologic lesions. The AI virus was isolated from cecal tonsils, feces, trachea, and kidney of the chickens. The isolated virus was identified as the highly pathogenic H5N1, with a hemagglutinin proteolytic cleavage site deduced amino acid sequences of QREKRKKR/GLFGAGLFGAIAG. In order to determine the pathogenicity of the isolate, eight 6-week-old specific pathogen free chickens were inoculated intravenously with the virus, and all the birds died within 24 hr after inoculation. This is the first report of an outbreak of HPAI in the chickens in South Korea.     

Global occurrence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the subtype H5N1

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the subtype H5N1 (HPAIV-H5N1) have circulated continuously in Asia, Europe, and Africa since 2003. Investigations on the environmental preference and global spread processes of the virus are needed. We compiled 16 environmental variables to assess their correlation with HPAIV-H5N1 occurrences by using a niche-based model called Maxent. We found the virus had the strongest positive association with the human footprint index, as well as the presence of certain types of wetlands and mild temperature (10-30 C). Outbreaks of HPAIV-H5N1 in poultry or wild birds were also more frequent in certain major habitat types (e.g., tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, temperate broadleaf and mixed forests, and flooded grasslands and savannas) and ecoregions. We conducted trend surface analysis to generate the travelling wave of the virus' global spread from 2003 to 2009, which indicated that high mountains or plateaus did not affect the spread speed and direction.     

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) clades in Bangladesh, 2010 and 2011

Since the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 during 2005–2006, control programs have been successfully implemented in most affected countries. HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Bangladesh in 2007, and since then 546 outbreaks have been reported to the OIE. The disease has apparently become endemic in Bangladesh. Spatio-temporal information on 177 outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 occurring between February 2010 and April 2011 in Bangladesh, and 37 of these outbreaks in which isolated H5N1 viruses were phylogenetically characterized to clade, were analyzed.     

Association between outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 and migratory waterfowl (family Anatidae) populations

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 threatens poultry production and human health. Understanding the role that migratory waterfowl play in introducing and maintaining this infection is critical to control the outbreaks. A study was conducted to determine if the occurrence of HPAI subtype H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry in Romania, 2005-2006, was associated with proximity to populations of migratory waterfowl. Reported outbreaks--which could be grouped into three epidemic phases--and migratory waterfowl sites were mapped. The migratory waterfowl site closest to each outbreak was identified. The distances between outbreaks occurring in phase 1 and 2 of the epidemic and the closest migratory waterfowl site were significantly (P<0.001) less than in phase 3, but these distances were only useful in predicting when outbreaks occurred during phase 1 (October-December, 2005) of the epidemic. A spatial lag (rho=0.408, P=0.041) model best fit the data, using distance and [distance]*[distance] as predictors (R2=0.425). The correlation between when outbreaks were predicted to occur and when they were observed to occur was 0.55 (P=0.006). Results support the hypothesis that HPAI virus subtype H5N1 infections of village poultry in Romania during the autumn of 2005 might have occurred via exposure to migratory populations of waterfowl.     

H5N1 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza virus isolated from healthy mallard captured in South Korea

On December 7, 2010, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus was isolated from a healthy mallard captured at the Mankyung River in South Korea. Phylogenetic analysis showed that this virus was classified into clade 2.3.2 and closely related to H5N1 viruses isolated from wild birds in Mongolia, Russia and China in 2009 and 2010.     

Risk signals of an influenza pandemic caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1: spatio-temporal perspectives

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 is a trans-boundary animal disease that has crossed the animal-human species barrier and over the past decade has had a considerable impact on the poultry industry, wild bird populations and on human health. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of H5N1 outbreaks can provide visual clues to the dynamics of disease spread and of areas at risk, and thus improve the cost-effectiveness of disease control and prevention. This study describes the characteristics and investigates the temporal, spatial and space-time dynamics of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry between December 2003 and December 2009 using a global database. The study found that the start date of the epidemic wave was postponed, the duration of the epidemic was prolonged and its magnitude reduced over time, but the disease transmission cycle was not efficiently interrupted. Two 'hot-spot' regions of H5N1 outbreaks were identified: well-documented locations in East and Southeast Asia, as well as a novel location at the boundaries of Europe and Africa, where enhanced surveillance should be conducted. The risk of a pandemic due to H5N1 remains high.     

Origin and evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1 viruses were reported almost simultaneously in eight neighbouring Asian countries between December 2003 and January 2004, with a ninth reporting in August 2004, suggesting that the viruses had spread recently and rapidly. However, they had been detected widely in the region in domestic waterfowl and terrestrial poultry for several years before this, and the absence of widespread disease in the region before 2003, apart from localised outbreaks in the Hong Kong Special Autonomous Region (SAR), is perplexing. Possible explanations include limited virus excretion by domestic waterfowl infected with H5N1, the confusion of avian influenza with other serious endemic diseases, the unsanctioned use of vaccines, and the under-reporting of disease as a result of limited surveillance. There is some evidence that the excretion of the viruses by domestic ducks had increased by early 2004, and there is circumstantial evidence that they can be transmitted by wild birds. The migratory birds from which viruses have been isolated were usually sick or dead, suggesting that they would have had limited potential for carrying the viruses over long distances unless subclinical infections were prevalent. However, there is strong circumstantial evidence that wild birds can become infected from domestic poultry and potentially can exchange viruses when they share the same environment. Nevertheless, there is little reason to believe that wild birds have played a more significant role in spreading disease than trade through live bird markets and movement of domestic waterfowl. Asian H5N1 viruses were first detected in domestic geese in southern China in 1996. By 2000, their host range had extended to domestic ducks, which played a key role in the genesis of the 2003/04 outbreaks. The epidemic was not due to the introduction and spread of a single virus but was caused by multiple viruses which were genotypically linked to the Goose/GD/96 lineage via the haemagglutinin gene. The H5N1 viruses isolated from China, including the Hong Kong SAR, between 1999 and 2004 had a range of genotypes and considerable variability within genotypes. The rising incidence and widespread reporting of disease in 2003/04 can probably be attributed to the increasing spread of the viruses from existing reservoirs of infection in domestic waterfowl and live bird markets leading to greater environmental contamination. When countries in the region started to report disease in December 2003, others were alerted to the risk and disease surveillance and reporting improved. The H5N1 viruses have reportedly been eliminated from three of the nine countries that reported disease in 2003/04, but they could be extremely difficult to eradicate from the remaining countries, owing to the existence of populations and, possibly, production and marketing sectors, in which apparently normal birds harbour the viruses.     

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.     

Pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of H5N1 subtype isolated in Thailand for different poultry species

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype have caused several rounds of outbreaks in Thailand. In this study, we used 3 HPAI viruses isolated in Thailand in January 2004 from chicken, quail, and duck for genetic and pathogenetic studies. Sequence analysis of the entire genomes of these isolates revealed that they were genetically similar to each other. Chickens, quails, domestic ducks, and cross-bred ducks were inoculated with these isolates to evaluate their pathogenicity to different host species. A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/04 (H5N1), an HPAI virus isolated in Japan, was also used in the chicken and quail studies for comparison. All four isolates were shown to be highly pathogenic to chickens and quails, with 100% mortality by 10(6) EID50 inoculants of the viruses. They caused sudden death in chickens and quails within 2-4 days after inoculation. The mean death times (MDT) of quails infected with the Thai isolates were shorter than those of chickens infected with the same isolates. Mortality against domestic and cross-bred ducks ranged from 50 to 75% by intranasal inoculation with the 10(6) EID50 viruses. Neurological symptoms were observed in most of the inoculated domestic ducks and appeared less severe in the cross-bred ducks. The MDTs of the ducks infected with the Thai isolates were 4.8-6 days post-inoculation. Most of the surviving ducks infected with the Thai isolates had sero-converted until 14 dpi. Our study illustrated the pathobiology of the Thai isolates against different poultry species and would provide useful information for improving control strategies against HPAI.     

Susceptibility of laughing gulls (Larus atricilla) to H5N1 and H5N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses

This investigation detailed the clinical disease, gross and histologic lesions, and distribution of viral antigen in juvenile laughing gulls (Larus atricilla) intranasally inoculated with either the A/tern/South Africa/61 (H5N3) (tern/SA) influenza virus or the A/chicken/Hong Kong/220/97 (H5N1) (chicken/HK) influenza virus, which are both highly pathogenic for chickens. Neither morbidity nor mortality was observed in gulls inoculated with either virus within the 14-day investigative period. Gross lesions resultant from infection with either virus were only mild, with the tern/SA virus causing decreased lucency of the air sacs (2/6), splenomegaly (2/6), and pancreatic mottling (1/6) and the chicken/HK virus causing only decreased lucency of the air sacs (2/8) and conjunctival edema (2/8). Histologic lesions in the tern/SA-inoculated gulls included a mild to moderate heterophilic to lymphoplasmacytic airsacculitis (6/6), mild to moderate interstitial pneumonia (3/6), and moderate necrotizing pancreatitis and hepatitis at 14 days postinoculation (DPI) (2/6). Immunohistochemical demonstration of viral antigen occurred only in association with lesions in the liver and pancreas. In contrast, viral antigen was not demonstrated in any tissues from the chicken/HK-inoculated gulls, and inflammatory lesions were confined to the air sac (3/8) and lungs (3/8). Both viruses were isolated at low titers (<10(1.68) mean embryo lethal dose) from oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs up to 7 days postinoculation (DPI), from the lung and kidney of one of two tern/SA-inoculated gulls at 14 DPI, and from the lung of one of two chicken/HK-inoculated gulls at 7 DPI. Antibodies to influenza viruses as determined with the agar gel precipitin test at 14 DPI were detected only in the two tern/SA-inoculated gulls and not in the two chicken/HK-inoculated gulls.     

Isolation and characterization of influenza A virus (subtype H5N1) that caused the first highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in chicken in Bhutan

We characterized Influenza A/H5N1 virus that caused the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in chickens in Bhutan in 2010. The virus was highly virulent to chicken, killing them within two days of the experimental inoculation with an intravenous pathogenicity index (IVPI) of 2.88. For genetic and phylogenetic analyses, complete genome sequencing of 4 viral isolates was carried out. The isolates revealed multiple basic amino acids at their hemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site, similar to other "Qinghai-like" H5N1 isolates. The receptor-binding site of HA molecule contained avian-like amino acids ((222)Q and (224)G). The isolates also contained amino acid residue K at position 627 of the PB2 protein, and other markers in NS 1 and PB1 proteins, highlighting the risk to mammals. However, the isolates were sensitive to influenza drugs presently available in the market. The sequence analysis indicated that the Bhutan viruses shared 99.1-100% nucleotide homology in all the eight genes among themselves and 2010 chicken isolate from Bangladesh (A/chicken/Bangladesh/1151-11/2010) indicating common progenitor virus. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that the Bhutan isolates belonged to sub-clade 2.2.3 (EMA 3) and shared common progenitor virus with the 2010 Bangladesh virus. Based on the evidence of phylogeny and molecular markers, it could be concluded that the outbreaks in Bhutan and Bangladesh in 2010 were due to independent introductions of the virus probably through migratory birds.     

Experimental infection of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in black-headed gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus)

Historically, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) rarely resulted in infection or clinical disease in wild birds. However, since 2002, disease and mortality from natural HPAIV H5N1 infection have been observed in wild birds including gulls. We performed an experimental HPAIV H5N1 infection of black-headed gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus) to determine their susceptibility to infection and disease from this virus, pattern of viral shedding, clinical signs, pathological changes and viral tissue distribution. We inoculated sixteen black-headed gulls with 1 × 10⁴ median tissue culture infectious dose HPAIV H5N1 (A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005) intratracheally and intraesophageally. Birds were monitored daily until 12 days post inoculation (dpi). Oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were collected daily to detect viral shedding. Necropsies from birds were performed at 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 12 dpi. Sampling from selected tissues was done for histopathology, immunohistochemical detection of viral antigen, PCR, and viral isolation. Our study shows that all inoculated birds were productively infected, developed systemic disease, and had a high morbidity and mortality rate. Virus was detected mainly in the respiratory tract on the first days after inoculation, and then concentrated more in pancreas and central nervous system from 4 dpi onwards. Birds shed infectious virus until 7 dpi from the pharynx and 6 dpi from the cloaca. We conclude that black-headed gulls are highly susceptible to disease with a high mortality rate and are thus more likely to act as sentinel species for the presence of the virus than as long-distance carriers of the virus to new geographical areas.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-014-0084-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics for evaluation of the dispersion of epidemic highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1

The aim of this study was to evaluate a range of statistical and geostatistical methods for their usefulness in providing insights into how highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might spread through a national population of village poultry. The insights gained allow the generation of disease dispersion hypotheses. The case study data set consisted of 161 outbreaks of HPAI subtype H5N1 in village poultry reported in Romania between October 2005 and June 2006. Reports of village outbreaks (%) occurred in three waves: October-December (14%), February-March (16%), and May-June (68%). Risk mapping - based on variography and kriging - was used to visualize the evolution of the epidemic. Outbreaks first appeared in eastern and southern Romania, particularly within an area that forms part of the Danube River Delta. The largest phase of the epidemic affected villages in all parts of central, southern, and eastern Romania, but outbreaks were clustered in central Romania. Outbreaks spread in an east to west direction. By using geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics, the evolution of the epidemic could be characterised into two parts: disease introduction, local spread, and sporadic outbreaks, and long-distance disease spread with rapid epidemic propagation. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the environment and landscape (specifically the Danube River Delta) played a critical role in the introduction and initial spread of HPAI subtype H5N1 during the autumn and winter of 2005, and that the movement of poultry might have introduced the infection into central Romania during the spring and summer of 2006. Further research focusing on the spatio-temporal interface between the two parts of the epidemic might reveal how and why it progressed from a confined, local epidemic to a large, national epidemic. Such information would assist efforts to limit the global spread of HPAI subtype H5N1.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in Mute swans in the Czech Republic

In order to determine the actual prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild birds in the Czech Republic extensive surveillance was carried out between January and April 2006. A total of 2101 samples representing 61 bird species were examined for the presence of influenza A by using PCR, sequencing and cultivation on chicken embryos. AIV subtype H5N1 was detected in 12 Mute swans (Cygnus olor). The viruses were determined as HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) and the hemagglutinin sequence was closely similar to A/mallard/Italy/835/06 and A/turkey/Turkey/1194/05. Following the first H5N1 case, about 300 wild birds representing 33 species were collected from the outbreak region and tested for the presence of AIV without any positive result. This is the first report of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 in the Czech Republic. The potential role of swan as an effective vector of avian influenza virus is also discussed.     

The first specific detection of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) in Ivory Coast

The Virology Laboratory of the Central Laboratory of Animal Diseases in Ivory Coast at Bingerville received samples of wild and domestic avian species between February and December 2006. An RT-PCR technique was used to test for avian influenza (AI) and highly pathogenic AI subtype viruses. Among 2125 samples, 16 were type A positive; of which, 12 were later confirmed to be H5N1. Fifteen of these 16 type A positive samples were inoculated into the chorioallantoic cavity of 11-day-old embryonated hens' eggs for virus isolation. Eight produced virus with hemagglutination titres from 1/64 to 1/512. The 4/16 M-RT-PCR positive samples, which were H5N1 negative, were shown to be H7 subtype negative. The diagnostic efficiency of the laboratory for the surveillance of H5N1 in Ivory Coast was demonstrated. The positive cases of H5N1 were from a sparrowhawk (Accipter nisus); live market poultry and in free-range poultry, where the mortality rate was approximately 20% (2/10) and 96.7% (29/30) respectively. Currently, investigations into intensive poultry farms have proved negative for H5N1. No human cases have been reported this time.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in ducks in the Northern part of Cameroon

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus was first detected in Cameroon in February 2006. Analysis of NA sequences of the virus demonstrated that it is closely related to the H5N1 isolates from Northern Nigeria, Sudan and Ivory Coast, suggesting a common virus ancestor.