Stress diffusion along the san andreas fault at parkfield, california

Beginning in January 1990, the epicenters of microearthquakes associated with a 12-month increase in seismicity near Parkfield, California, moved northwest to southeast along the San Andreas fault. During this sequence of events, the locally variable rate of cumulative seismic moment increased. This increase implies a local increase in fault slip. These data suggest that a southeastwardly diffusing stress front propagated along the San Andreas fault at a speed of 30 to 50 kilometers per year. Evidently, this front did not load the Parkfield asperities fast enough to produce a moderate earthquake; however, a future front might do so.     

Slip deficit on the san andreas fault at parkfield, california, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data

A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.     

A high-frequency secondary event during the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

By using seismic records of the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, we identified a burst of high-frequency seismic radiation that occurred about 13 kilometers northwest of the hypocenter and 5 seconds after rupture initiation. We imaged this event in three dimensions by using a waveform back-projection method, as well as by timing distinct arrivals visible on many of the seismograms. The high-frequency event is located near the south edge of a large slip patch seen in most seismic and geodetic inversions, indicating that slip may have grown abruptly at this point. The time history obtained from full-waveform back projection suggests a rupture velocity of 2.5 kilometers per second. Energy estimates for the subevent, together with long-period slip inversions, indicate a lower average stress drop for the northern part of the Parkfield earthquake compared with that for the region near its hypocenter, which is in agreement with stress-drop estimates obtained from small-magnitude aftershocks.     

Microearthquake imaging of the parkfield asperity

Microearthquake data from a downhole seismometer network on the San Andreas fault appear to outline two aseismic asperities that may correspond to the locations of the foreshocks and main shocks of the Parkfield characteristic earthquakes. The source parameters of the microearthquakes show that a few of the earthquakes have significantly higher stress drops than most. Furthermore, the magnitude-frequency statistics suggest that at local magnitude 0.6, the cumulative number of small events begins to fall off the usual Gutenberg-Richter (b = -1) relation, in which the number of events increases exponentially with decreasing magnitude. The downhole seismometer data establish a baseline from which the evolution of the earthquake process at Parkfield can be monitored and suggest that different mechanical conditions than those that lead to the typical Gutenberg-Richter relation may be operating for the smallest of Parkfield microearthquakes.     

Postseismic relaxation along the San Andreas fault at Parkfield from continuous seismological observations

Seismic velocity changes and nonvolcanic tremor activity in the Parkfield area in California reveal that large earthquakes induce long-term perturbations of crustal properties in the San Andreas fault zone. The 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes both reduced seismic velocities that were measured from correlations of the ambient seismic noise and induced an increased nonvolcanic tremor activity along the San Andreas fault. After the Parkfield earthquake, velocity reduction and nonvolcanic tremor activity remained elevated for more than 3 years and decayed over time, similarly to afterslip derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements. These observations suggest that the seismic velocity changes are related to co-seismic damage in the shallow layers and to deep co-seismic stress change and postseismic stress relaxation within the San Andreas fault zone.     

San andreas fault zone head waves near parkfield, california

Microearthquake seismograms from the borehole seismic network on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, provide three lines of evidence that first P arrivals are "head" waves refracted along the cross-fault material contrast. First, the travel time difference between these arrivals and secondary phases identified as direct P waves scales linearly with the source-receiver distance. Second, these arrivals have the emergent wave character associated in theory and practice with refracted head waves instead of the sharp first breaks associated with direct P arrivals. Third, the first motion polarities of the emergent arrivals are reversed from those of the direct P waves as predicted by the theory of fault zone head waves for slip on the San Andreas fault. The presence of fault zone head waves in local seismic network data may help account for scatter in earthquake locations and source mechanisms. The fault zone head waves indicate that the velocity contrast across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield is approximately 4 percent. Further studies of these waves may provide a way of assessing changes in the physical state of the fault system.     

Laboratory earthquakes along inhomogeneous faults: directionality and supershear

We report on the experimental observation of spontaneously nucleated ruptures occurring on frictionally held bimaterial interfaces with small amounts of wave speed mismatch. Rupture is always found to be asymmetric bilateral. In one direction, rupture always propagates at the generalized Rayleigh wave speed, whereas in the opposite direction it is subshear or it transitions to supershear. The lack of a preferred rupture direction and the conditions leading to supershear are discussed in relation to existing theory and to the earthquake sequence in Parkfield, California, and in North Anatolia.     

Clustering and periodic recurrence of microearthquakes on the san andreas fault at parkfield, california

The San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, apparently late in an interval between repeating magnitude 6 earthquakes, is yielding to tectonic loading partly by seismic slip concentrated in a relatively sparse distribution of small clusters (<20-meter radius) of microearthquakes. Within these clusters, which account for 63% of the earthquakes in a 1987-92 study interval, virtually identical small earthquakes occurred with a regularity that can be described by the statistical model used previously in forecasting large characteristic earthquakes. Sympathetic occurrence of microearthquakes in nearby clusters was observed within a range of about 200 meters at communication speeds of 10 to 100 centimeters per second. The rate of earthquake occurrence, particularly at depth, increased significantly during the study period, but the fraction of earthquakes that were cluster members decreased.     

Under the hood of the earthquake machine: toward predictive modeling of the seismic cycle

Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (M(w)) 6.0 main shocks--including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004--and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins.     

Seismic trapped modes in the oroville and san andreas fault zones

Three-component borehole seismic profiling of the recently active Oroville, California, normal fault and microearthquake event recording with a near-fault three-component borehole seismometer on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, have shown numerous instances of pronounced dispersive wave trains following the shear wave arrivals. These wave trains are interpreted as fault zone-trapped seismic modes. Parkfield earthquakes exciting trapped modes have been located as deep as 10 kilometers, as shallow as 4 kilometers, and extend 12 kilometers along the fault on either side of the recording station. Selected Oroville and Parkfield wave forms are modeled as the fundamental and first higher trapped SH modes of a narrow low-velocity layer at the fault. Modeling results suggest that the Oroville fault zone is 18 meters wide at depth and has a shear wave velocity of 1 kilometer per second, whereas at Parkfield, the fault gouge is 100 to 150 meters wide and has a shear wave velocity of 1.1 to 1.8 kilometers per second. These low-velocity layers are probably the rupture planes on which earthquakes occur.     

The magnitude 6.7 northridge, california, earthquake of 17 january 1994

The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.     

Geologic evidence for recurrent moderate to large earthquakes near charleston, South Carolina

Multiple generations of earthquake-induced sand blows in Quaternary sediments and soils near Charleston, South Carolina, are evidence of recurrent moderate to large earthquakes in that area. The large 1886 earthquake, the only historic earthquake known to have produced sand blows at Charleston, probably caused the youngest observed blows. Older (late Quaternary) sand blows in the Charleston area indicate at least two prehistoric earthquakes with shaking severities comparable to the 1886 event.     

Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences

Moderate-sized earthquakes (Richter magnitude M(L) 5(1/2)) have occurred four times this century (1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966) on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield in central California. In many respects the June 1966 sequence was a remarkably detailed repetition of the June 1934 sequence, suggesting a recurring recognizable pattern of stress and fault zone behavior.     

The oaxaca, Mexico, earthquake of 29 november 1978: a preliminary report on aftershocks

Aftershocks of the 29 November 1978 Oaxaca, Mexico, earthquake (surface-wave magnitude Ms = 7.8) define a rupture area of about 6000 square kilometers along the boundary of the Cocos sea-plate subduction. This area had not ruptured in a large (Ms >/= 7), shallow earthquake since the years 1928 and 1931 and had been designated a seismic "gap." The region has also been seismically quiet for small to moderate (M >/= 4), shallow (depth 相似文献   

An experiment in earthquake control at rangely, colorado

An experiment in an oil field at Rangely, Colorado, has demonstrated the feasibility of earthquake control. Variations in seismicity were produced by controlled variations in the fluid pressure in a seismically active zone. Precise earthquake locations revealed that the earthquakes clustered about a fault trending through a zone of high pore pressure produced by secondary recovery operations. Laboratory measurements of the frictional properties of the reservoir rocks and an in situ stress measurement made near the earthquake zone were used to predict the fluid pressure required to trigger earthquakes on preexisting fractures. Fluid pressure was controlled by alternately injecting and recovering water from wells that penetrated the seismic zone. Fluid pressure was monitored in observation wells, and a computer model of the reservoir was used to infer the fluid pressure distributions in the vicinity of the injection wells. The results of this experiment confirm the predicted effect of fluid pressure on earthquake activity and indicate that earthquakes can be controlled wherever we can control the fluid pressure in a fault zone.     

Glacial earthquakes

We have detected dozens of previously unknown, moderate earthquakes beneath large glaciers. The seismic radiation from these earthquakes is depleted at high frequencies, explaining their nondetection by traditional methods. Inverse modeling of the long-period seismic waveforms from the best-recorded earthquake, in southern Alaska, shows that the seismic source is well represented by stick-slip, downhill sliding of a glacial ice mass. The duration of sliding in the Alaska earthquake is 30 to 60 seconds, about 15 to 30 times longer than for a regular tectonic earthquake of similar magnitude.     

Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude >/= 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.     

Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.     

The cape mendocino, california, earthquakes of april 1992: subduction at the triple junction

The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America-Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.     

Temporally unstable recurrence of earthquakes due to breaks in fractal scaling

Observed sequences of large earthquakes are not consistent in either recurrence time or energy release; long-term prediction has been impossible even in areas, such as Parkfield, with well-defined recurrence intervals. The seismic gap hypothesis, which predicts characteristic earthquakes in areas of the circum-Pacific belt that have not produced recent great earthquakes, has also failed to predict the observed clustering of high-energy events. Models in which fractal scaling is broken at high magnitude predict that characteristic events and recurrence behavior will be unstable in time. The central predictions of these models are supported by recent observations at Landers and Big Bear in California.