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1.
Proactive forest conservation planning requires spatially accurate information about the potential distribution of tree species. The most cost-efficient way to obtain this information is habitat suitability modelling i.e. predicting the potential distribution of biota as a function of environmental factors. Here, we used the bootstrap-aggregating machine-learning ensemble classifier Random Forest (RF) to derive a 1-km resolution European forest formation suitability map. The statistical model use as inputs more than 6,000 field data forest inventory plots and a large set of environmental variables. The field data plots were classified into different forest formations using the forest category classification scheme of the European Environmental Agency. The ten most dominant forest categories excluding plantations were chosen for the analysis. Model results have an overall accuracy of 76%. Between categories scores were unbalanced and Mesophitic deciduous forests were found to be the least correctly classified forest category. The model’s variable ranking scores are used to discuss relationship between forest category/environmental factors and to gain insight into the model’s limits and strengths for map applicability. The European forest suitability map is now available for further applications in forest conservation and climate change issues.  相似文献   

2.
The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ipspini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.  相似文献   

3.
利用Bioclim模型,结合354个乌饭树地理分布点以及19个气候因子,对乌饭树在我国的潜在分布区和适宜等级进行了预测。结果表明:潜在分布区的预测结果与实际分布点吻合较好,其适生区(适宜度≥5%)主要为广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西东南部、湖南西部及贵州东部等地区;湖南、江西南部与广东、广西北部交界处的南岭地区及福建中部山地等地区为乌饭树的最适生区(≥20%)。ROC曲线的AUC值为0.819,表明预测结果很准确。极端低温、最干季降雨量、极端高温、温差是影响乌饭树分布的主要水热因子,最适宜区气候参数为:年平均温为14.7—23℃,适宜越冬的年极端低温为-3.1—13.4℃,年降雨量为948.8—1988.4mm,最干季降雨量为54.6—201mm,分布的最适宜海拔范围为3—806m之间。气候变暖将使得乌饭树潜在最适分布区面积显著缩小,现有最适生境位置发生改变。  相似文献   

4.
A new approach to the definition of physiographic and climatic potential areas for forest species, based on the ecological field theory, is outlined in this paper. The proposed formulation is tested on the Spanish juniper (Juniperus thurifera L.), using data from 883 permanent and temporary plots throughout its distribution area in the Spanish autonomous region of Castilla y León. The suitability of the territory for the species is assessed by previously studying its habitat, which in turn is analyzed through physiographic and climatic parameters. This new method is rooted in an additive index that depends on the Mahalanobis distance in the parametric space that evaluates the ecological resemblance between the studied site and each of the points defining the parametric habitat. Thereby the ecological potential of any site within the territory can be established, integrated in a geographical information systems and accordingly charted. The results are compared with those obtained with the methodology traditionally used by Spanish foresters (factorial index), showing that the overall potential area is similar in size but quite different in its distribution.  相似文献   

5.
Large-scale information on habitat suitability is indispensable for planning management actions to further endangered species with large-spatial requirements. So far, remote sensing based habitat variables mostly included environmental and land cover data derived from passive sensors, but lacked information on vegetation structure. This is a serious constraint for the management of endangered species with specific structural requirements. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR), in contrast to passive remote sensing techniques, may bridge this gap in structural information at the landscape scale. We investigated the potential of LiDAR data to quantify habitat suitability for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), an endangered forest grouse in Central Europe, in a forest reserve of 17.7 km2. We used continuous variables of horizontal and vertical stand structure from first and last pulse LiDAR data and presence–absence information from field work to model habitat suitability with generalized linear models (GLM). The two final habitat suitability models explained the observed presence–absence pattern moderately well (AUC of 0.71 and 0.77) with horizontal structure explaining better than vertical structure. Relative tree canopy cover was the most important variable with intermediate values indicating highest habitat suitability. As such, LiDAR allowed us to translate the results from habitat modeling at the landscape scale to effective management recommendations at the local scale at a level of detail that hitherto was unavailable for large areas. LiDAR thus enabled us to integrate individual habitat preferences at the scale of entire populations and thus offers great potential for effective habitat monitoring and management of endangered species.  相似文献   

6.
Accurate and reliable predictions of pest species distributions in forest ecosystems are urgently needed by forest managers to develop management plans and monitor new areas of potential establishment.Presence-only species distribution models are commonly used in these evaluations.The maximum entropy algorithm(MaxEnt)has gained popularity for modelling species distribution.Here,MaxEnt was used to model the spatial distribution of the Mexican pine bark beetle(Dendroctonus mexicanus)in a daily fashion by using forecast data from the Weather Research and Forecasting model.This study aimed to exploit freely available geographic and environmental data and software and thus provide a pathway to overcome the lack of costly data and technical guidance that are a challenge to implementing national monitoring and management strategies in developing countries.Our results showed overall agreement values between 60 and 87%.The results of this research can be used for D.mexicanus monitoring and management and may aid as a model to monitor similar species.  相似文献   

7.
The benefits provided by underutilised fruit tree species such as baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in combating increasing malnutrition and poverty become more apparent as awareness grows regarding concerns of climate change and food security. Due to its multiple uses, its high nutritional and medicinal value, drought tolerance and relatively easy cultivation, baobab has been identified as one of the most important edible forest trees to be conserved, domesticated and valued in Africa. In order to contribute towards the cultivation of the species, suitability of sites in Africa and worldwide was evaluated for potential cultivation using species’ locality data and spatial environmental data in MAXENT modelling framework. A total of 450 geo-referenced records of the baobab tree were assembled from herbarium records, commercial firm’s databases and fieldwork for modelling site suitability for global cultivation of the baobab tree. Climatic and topographic data were acquired from the Worldclim data while soil data was obtained from the Harmonized World Soil Database. MAXENT was found to be a successful modelling method for studying cultivation potential. The main variables that contributed towards predicting baobab’s global cultivation potential were annual precipitation and temperature seasonality. Results suggest that baobab tree could be widely cultivated in most countries in southern Africa and in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa from Senegal to Sudan. Angola and Somalia were found to be highly suitable for cultivating baobab in Africa. Model suggests, India, where the baobab tree already exists and is used, to be the most suitable country for baobab cultivation outside Africa. North-west Australia, Madagascar, north-east Brazil and Mexico resulted to be other suitable places for cultivating the tree species. Although it is recommended model results be validated with in situ seedling experiments, there seems to be a great potential for the cultivation of this species globally.  相似文献   

8.
Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins can cause extensive tree mortality in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., forests in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming. Most studies that have examined stand susceptibility to mountain pine beetle have been conducted in even-aged stands. Land managers increasingly practice uneven-aged management. We established 84 clusters of four plots, one where bark beetle-caused mortality was present and three uninfested plots. For all plot trees we recorded species, tree diameter, and crown position and for ponderosa pine whether they were killed or infested by mountain pine beetle. Elevation, slope, and aspect were also recorded. We used classification trees to model the likelihood of bark beetle attack based on plot and site variables. The probability of individual tree attack within the infested plots was estimated using logistic regression. Basal area of ponderosa pine in trees ≥25.4 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh) and ponderosa pine stand density index were correlated with mountain pine beetle attack. Regression trees and linear regression indicated that the amount of observed tree mortality was associated with initial ponderosa pine basal area and ponderosa pine stand density index. Infested stands had higher total and ponderosa pine basal area, total and ponderosa pine stand density index, and ponderosa pine basal area in trees ≥25.4 cm dbh. The probability of individual tree attack within infested plots was positively correlated with tree diameter with ponderosa pine stand density index modifying the relationship. A tree of a given size was more likely to be attacked in a denser stand. We conclude that stands with higher ponderosa pine basal area in trees >25.4 cm and ponderosa pine stand density index are correlated with an increased likelihood of mountain pine beetle bark beetle attack. Information form this study will help forest managers in the identification of uneven-aged stands with a higher likelihood of bark beetle attack and expected levels of tree mortality.  相似文献   

9.
The suitability of plantation monocultures for the conservation of forest animals is an issue under continous debate. The adaptability of forest dwellers and the forest management regime seem to play key roles. In this study, I investigated the habitat selection of a generalist bird, the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), within a pine (Pine spp.) monoculture, as well as the importance of the native habitat features within the pine matrix for the species’ conservation. I compared 52 plots with woodpecker presence against 121 plots where the species was absent, as well as 68 nest-trees against 90 random ones. Regression analyses were used to investigate the habitat attributes involved in the habitat selection. Although the great spotted woodpecker is considered a generalist forest dweller, it shows a marked habitat selection. Based on presence/absence records, the woodpecker prefers well-forested patches with high levels of tree diversity and with good coverage of a secondary species such as the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo). To excavate their nests, woodpeckers select large trees in patches where other trees are also larger, rejecting patches with a high number of small trees. The most striking conclusion from this work is the preference shown for native trees, especially Portuguese oaks (Quercus faginea), as nest-trees. This is noteworthy because native trees are smaller and they are surrounded by smaller trees than pines. These findings support that woodpecker conservation benefits from an increase of habitat heterogeneity, particularly by the retention of native woodland patches within the plantation matrix.  相似文献   

10.
Our study focused on the functional aspects of plant species and vegetation at the transition from larch (Larix decidua Mill.) forest to mountain pine (Pinus mugo Turra) stands on the alpine treeline ecotone. With increasing elevation, living conditions grow harsher, which is reflected in the plant species and functional trait composition of plant communities. At four different localities in the Slovenian Alps, relevés along an altitudinal gradient and according to vegetation type were made (European larch forests, larch trees-mountain pine shrubs, mountain pine shrubs), using standard Central European phytocoenological method. In the upper mountain pine belt, few differential species were found, since most species represented in mountain pine stands also occurred in the lower two vegetation belts, while there were many differential species in the lower forest belt. Species with considerable competitive ability and moderate stress tolerance dominated the upper treeline ecotone, whereas ruderality is poorly expressed. The importance of stress tolerance in plant strategies increased slightly in the mountain pine belt. Changes in the representation of some functional traits attributes were detected by vegetation belts, but complete species turnover did not occur. Changes in dominant life form involved greater cover of chamaephytes and nanophanerophytes in the upper mountain pine belt. Species with evergreen leaves dominated mountain pine stands and deciduous forest stands. The share of species with scleromorphic leaves increased in the direction of the mountain pine belt while the share of species with mesomorphic and hygromorphic leaves declined. Mountain pine stands create good conditions for the regeneration of tree species and colonisation by ecologically more demanding forest species while species of alpine grasslands withdraw on open areas. Since today’s treeline is lowered due to past human activity, an upward shift is expected. Also, considering the great importance of competition strategy, current conditions in mountain pine stands are favourable for future forest succession.  相似文献   

11.
The loss of connectivity of forest landscapes is seriously hindering dispersal of many forest-dwelling species, which may be critical for their viability and conservation. In this context, explicitly incorporating connectivity considerations is an important challenge in current forest planning and management, but as yet there is a lack of operative methods for appropriate decision making in this respect. We describe a new methodology based on graph structures and a habitat availability index (integral index of connectivity) that integrates forest attributes (like habitat quality) and network connectivity in a single measure. We apply this methodology to examine the connectivity of the highly fragmented habitat of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in Catalonia (NE Spain), where the threatened status of this forest bird species calls for landscape-level forest planning solutions. We analyse data on the distribution of capercaillie forest habitat at 1 km spatial resolution obtained from the recent Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas. We determine the functionally connected regions existing within its habitat distribution and identify the forest habitat areas that are more important for the maintenance of overall landscape connectivity for this species. Based on these results, we provide recommendations on certain critical public forests where management oriented to the conservation of capercaillie habitat is more necessary. These results highlight the potential and practical interest of the proposed methodology for successfully integrating landscape connectivity in broad scale forest planning.  相似文献   

12.
IntroductionItissurethatpresentelevatiollsofCO2a11dotllergrcc11-housegasesinducedbyhumanactivitiesaren1akli1gglobalclimategothroughinexperielICedcl1anges(Scl1le-subgerl987).Thecurrentquasi-equilibriulllstatesofbio-sphereecosystCm,esPeciallyterrestrialecosystems,wouldbebrokenbecausetl1estructure,fu11ction,distributio11andtlledynamicsofanyexistedecosystemsareIberesultsoflongtermadaptationofbio-systemtocurrentclin1ate.Theec()systemsdistributedinhighlatitlldeareawouldhavemuchbiggerchai1ge(Bona…  相似文献   

13.
Despite the fact that tree plantations are not able to completely replace the ecological function of natural forests, the present study proposes to evaluate for which bird species or avian groups tree plantations act as habitat in fragmented landscape in southern Brazil. We compared the richness and abundance of bird species in a natural forest to adjacent plantations of Araucaria, a native tree species and of pine, an exotic plant in South America. Moreover, we evaluated the impact of tree plantations on richness of avian groups with different levels of dependence on forest habitat, feeding habits and foraging strata as well as on threatened species. The fixed 100 m radius point-counts method was used. A total of 114 bird species were recorded in all areas. Of those, 93 occurred in natural forest, 87 in Araucaria plantations and 81 in pine plantations. These results indicate that richness and abundance were lower in the pine plantations than in the natural forest and in the Araucaria plantations. Araucaria plantations can be used by a high number of bird species and their richness was not significantly lower than that observed in the adjacent natural forest. Our results suggest that Araucaria plantations could act as habitat for a large number of bird species, especially for forest-dependents species, insectivores, frugivores and species at different threat categories.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) is one of the leading forest certification schemes. While many studies concern political aspects and social outcomes of FSC, little is known about the contribution of certification to biodiversity conservation. In Europe, the Russian Federation and Sweden have the largest areas of FSC-certified forest. We assessed the potential of FSC certification for boreal biodiversity conservation in terms of standard content, and outcomes as habitat area set aside and habitat network functionality. First, we compared the biodiversity conservation indicators at different spatial scales in Swedish and Russian FSC standards. Second, focusing on one large state forest management unit in each country, we compared the areas of formally and voluntarily set aside forests for biodiversity conservation. Third, we evaluated the structural habitat connectivity by applying morphological spatial pattern analysis, and potential functional connectivity by using habitat suitability index modelling for virtual species. The Russian standard included indicators for all spatial scales of biodiversity conservation, from tree and stand to landscape and ecoregions. The Swedish standard focused mainly on stand and tree scales. The area of voluntary set-asides for FSC was similar in Sweden and Russia, while formal protection in the Russian case study was three times higher than in the Swedish one. Swedish set-aside core areas were two orders of magnitude smaller, had much lower structural and potential functional connectivity and were located in a fragmented forestland holding. We conclude that to understand the potential of FSC certification for biodiversity conservation both the standard content, and its implementation on the ground, need to be assessed. We discuss the potential of FSC certification for biodiversity conservation with different levels of ambition. We stress the need for developing rapid assessment tools to evaluate outcomes of FSC for biodiversity conservation on the ground, which could be used by forest managers and FSC-auditors toward adaptive governance and management.  相似文献   

16.
Areas of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks in the Black Hills can provide habitat for black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus), a U.S. Forest Service, Region 2 Sensitive Species. These outbreaks are managed through removal of trees infested with mountain pine beetles to control mountain pine beetle populations and salvage timber resources. To minimize impacts to black-backed woodpeckers while meeting management objectives, there is a need to identify characteristics of these areas that support black-backed woodpeckers. We examined the habitat associations of this species nesting in areas of beetle outbreaks in the Black Hills, South Dakota in 2004 and 2005. We used an information theoretic approach and discrete choice models to evaluate nest-site selection of 42 woodpecker nests at 3 spatial scales—territory, nest area, and nest tree. At the territory scale (250 m around nest), availability and distribution of food best explained black-backed woodpecker selection of beetle outbreaks versus the surrounding forest. Selection at the territory scale was positively associated with densities of trees currently infested by mountain pine beetles and indices of wood borer (Cerambycidae and Buprestidae) abundance, and was greatest at distances of 50–100 m from the nearest patch of infestation. At the nest-area scale (12.5 m radius around the nest), densities of snags positively influenced nest-area selection. Finally, at the nest-tree scale, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and 3–5-year-old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) snags were important resources. The association between abundant wood-boring insects and black-backed woodpeckers creates a difficult challenge for forest managers. In the absence of fire, areas of beetle outbreak might serve as the only substantial source of habitat in the Black Hills. Regulating insect populations via salvage logging will reduce key food resources to black-backed woodpeckers during nesting. Therefore, given the relatively infrequent occurrence of large-scale fire in the Black Hills, management should recognize the importance of beetle-killed forests to the long-term viability of the black-backed woodpecker population in the Black Hills.  相似文献   

17.
Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Potential shifts in suitable habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations.  相似文献   

18.
To examine the relationship between forest succession following fire and the composition of bird communities, we investigated the vegetation structure, bird population density, foraging behavior and guild structure in bamboo grasslands (11 years since the last fire), pine savanna (41 years), pine woodland (58 years), old-growth hemlock forest (never burned), and old-growth spruce forest (never burned) in the Tatachia area of central Taiwan. Canopy height, total foliage cover, tree density, total basal area of tree, total basal area of snags, foliage height diversity, and tree species richness all increased with successional age. However, shrub cover peaked in intermediate successional stages. The vertical profile of foliage cover was more diverse in later successional forests, which had more breeding bird species and ecological guilds. All the breeding bird species recorded in early and intermediate stages were also found distributed in the late successional forests. Because Taiwan has high precipitation and humidity, and most forest fires in Taiwan are caused by human activities, forest fires and large areas of early successional vegetation were probably rare in the mountain areas of Taiwan prior to the arrival of humans. Therefore, bird species have not had enough time to adapt to areas with early or intermediate successional vegetation. Moreover, late successional forests host all the major plant species found in the early and intermediate stages and have higher foliage height diversity index, which was positively correlated with the bird species richness and bird species diversity index in this study. As a result, all breeding bird species and guilds in the area can be found in late successional forests. Efforts for conserving avian diversity in Taiwan should focus on protecting the remaining native old-growth forests.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Efficient conservation planning in managed forest landscapes requires knowledge about the location of functional habitat for specialised species. We explored the importance of different variables to predict habitat suitability for the white-backed woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos Bechstein), a proposed umbrella species in deciduous forest. Specifically, we tested whether biophysical proxy variables indicating management intensity and the occurrence of natural processes constituted a useful complement to traditional remotely sensed data on tree species composition and forest stand age for modelling the woodpecker's habitat. Presence–absence of the woodpecker during the study period (1986–2006) in southwestern Sweden was explained by the area of edge habitats (forest bordering water or farmland) and wetland forest, and location relative to the historical marine limit. The number of years with occurrence of the woodpecker in a territory was explained by the area of forest bordering water and wetland forest. Among traditional forest variables, the area of deciduous forest had a strong positive effect on both woodpecker presence–absence and the number of years with occurrence. The results support the hypothesis that edge habitats and forest types subject to natural processes favouring deciduous trees and dead wood creation are valuable to the woodpecker and should be prioritised in conservation planning.  相似文献   

20.
山西太岳山油松人工林群落结构研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
油松是我国北方人工林重要的造林树种,是我国人工林种植中使用较早的一种树种。本文调查的油松人工林是山西沁源县马泉林场宋家沟。通过在太岳山马泉林场宋家沟设立标准样地,并进行调查、取样,旨在研究人工油松林的群落结构,包括油松林下的植物种类,及科、属、种的统计,同时计算油松林下植被的重要值及多样性指数,揭示油松林下植被多样性情况。同时,针对油松密度与林分平均胸径、平均树高的关系进行研究,找寻油松最佳的种植密度。寻求最佳的解决人工林生长、经营、管理问题的一些途径。  相似文献   

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