Exploratory spatial relative risk mapping

The many faces of disease mapping include maps of disease case locations, regional counts of cases, and disease risk. Another approach is that of mapping the relative risk. Previous methods to map the relative risk were based on regression models of relative risk, given information about geographical locations and established risk factors. However, spatial epidemiological investigations are often exploratory with limited knowledge about the putative risk factors. Indeed, often the primary motivation for the analysis is to identify unknown geographically varying risk factors.

An exploratory approach to mapping the spatial relative risk is to scale the risk map using the background risk in the unexposed (or less-exposed) population. Exposure to unknown spatial risk factors is defined via specific cluster analysis. Identification of spatial disease clusters separates the population into those inside and those outside high risk areas (the exposed and unexposed populations). This exploratory approach to relative risk mapping gives the investigator an impression about the importance and geographical distribution of the unknown spatial risk factors.

Two examples illustrate the exploratory relative risk mapping approach using a spatial point data set on pseudorabies in pig-herds and a regional count data set on small fox tapeworm infections in red foxes.     

Spatial analysis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Galicia, Spain (2000-2005)

In Spain, the first bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case was detected in 2000 in a cow born in the Galicia region (Northwestern Spain). From then and until October 2005, 590 cases were detected, 223 of them in Galicia.

In 1994, meat and bone meal (MBM) was banned on ruminant feed and, in 1996, an EU decision mandating an overall change in MBM processing was implemented. This decision was gradually applied in the territory and not enforced before July 1998. The objective of this study was to explore clustering of BSE cases and estimate the standard incidence ratio (SIR) of BSE in Galicia. Our study was based on the BSE cases detected during the surveillance period 2000–2005 in the Galicia region. These cases were divided, based on birth date, into two periods: animals born from 1994 to July 1998, and those born after July 1998. We tested the role of cross-contamination on the geographical SIR distribution for both periods. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the overdispersion and lack of independence of the SIR estimates. The geographical distribution of the standard incidence ratio of BSE between both periods was different. In the second period, the SIR was reduced in some areas. The reduction in these areas could be attributable to the changes in the processing of MBM. We did not find any statistical link between the poultry population and the standard incidence ratio, but pig population had a positive effect.     

The role of spatial factors in the success of an Aujeszky's disease eradication programme in a high pig density area (Northeast Spain, 2003–2007)

We tested the role of several spatial variables on the risk of a sow herd being Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) seropositive in certain areas of North Eastern Spain and during different periods of the eradication programme. Distance to the nearest slaughterhouse, distance to the nearest conventional road and number of ADV serologically positive sows and ADV serologically positive fattening pigs within different distances (1000, 1500 and 2000 m) of each sow herd, were included in a hierarchical Bayesian binomial model. A variable without spatial characteristics, type of herd (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish), was also included. Presence of positive fattening pigs or positive sows up to a distance of 1500 m of a sow herd increased its risk of being seropositive, although this variable had no effect on the risk when located at distances up to 1000 or 2000 m. The number of seropositive sows increased the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive only in the first period of study, when the proportion of serologically positive sow herds was nearly 60%. The spatial pattern of the residuals of the hierarchical Bayesian binomial model (observed versus predicted) was very similar to the observed infection in sow herds in all of the eradication periods, showing that spatial factors might not be the main factors related to the eradication of Aujeszky's disease from sow herds. Other herd-specific risk factors might be much more strongly related to the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive.     

Bovine tuberculosis of cattle in three districts of northwestern Ethiopia

The prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) infection in cattle was investigated in extensive and intensive production systems in three districts of northwestern Ethiopia. Single comparative intradermal tuberculin test (SCIDTT) was used in the study. The prevalence of BTB infection as determined by SCIDTT was 9.7% whereas the non-specific infection prevalence was 10.8%. In the extensive system the prevalence was 8.2% and 11.3%; under intensive system the prevalence was 22.1% and 6.3% for BTB and non-specific infections respectively. The prevalence of BTB was significantly higher in the intensive than extensive production systems. Of the 75 herds tested 41 (54.7%) had BTB infections, 68.9% of the BTB positive herds were in the extensive system and 40% of herds in the intensive systems (small dairy farms) had BTB infections.     

新疆部分地区牛结核病PPD监测与分析

2001年-2003年对新疆部分地区（巴州、阿克苏、博州、伊犁、昌吉、塔城和石河子）牛结核病用“提纯结核茵素皮内变态反应”进行调查,调查数据用SPSS软件统计建立模型,显示2001年-2003年七地州检测牛只分别为16793,21153头和43951头,阳性率分别为0．46％,0．33％和0．57％。其中,巴州地区阳性率明显偏高。昌吉和石河子地区2001年-2002年保持一个较低的水平,2003年牛结核病的阳性率较前两年升高了1％。     

An all-island approach to mapping bovine tuberculosis in Ireland

This study used techniques in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to explore the spatial patterns of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the whole island of Ireland over an 11-year period. This is the first time that data pertaining to TB from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have been collated and examined in an all-Ireland context. The analyses were based on 198, 156 point locations representing active farms with cattle in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland between the years 1996 and 2006. The results consist of a series of maps giving a visual representation of cattle populations and associated detected bTB levels on the island of Ireland over this time interval.     

Descriptive and spatial epidemiology of bovine cysticercosis in North-Eastern Spain (Catalonia)

From March 2005 to December 2007, 284 animals from 67 cattle farms (24 dairy and 43 beef) affected by bovine cysticercosis were detected in the region of Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain). Dairy farms were almost twice more likely to be affected than beef farms (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.08–2.96, p < 0.05), and infected premises have a statistically significant (p < 0.05) larger number of animals when compared to uninfected farms in Catalonia.     

European outbreaks of atypical myopathy in grazing horses (2006-2009): determination of indicators for risk and prognostic factors

Reasons for performing study: Appropriate management of atypical myopathy (AM) requires the establishment of an accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Furthermore, preventive measures to avoid AM need to be refined. Objectives: The aims of the study were as follows: 1) to improve the diagnosis of AM; 2) to identify prognostic predictors; and 3) to refine recommended preventive measures based on indicators of risk factors. Methods: An exploratory analysis of cases in Europe between 2006 and 2009 reported to the Atypical Myopathy Alert Group was conducted. Based on clinical data, reported cases were allocated into 2 groups: confirmed or highly probable AM (AM group; further divided into survivors and nonsurvivors); and cases with a low probability of having AM or with another final diagnosis (non‐AM group). Using Welch's test and odds ratios corrected for multiple comparisons, the AM vs. non‐AM groups were compared to identify indicators for diagnosis and risk factors, and survivors vs. nonsurvivors in the AM group were compared to identify prognostic factors. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for specific clinical signs related to final diagnosis and outcome. Results: From 600 reported cases, 354 AM cases (survival rate of 26%) and 69 non‐AM cases were identified, while there were insufficient data to categorise the remainder. Variables valuable for diagnosing AM compared with similar diseases were as follows: presence of dead leaves and wood and/or trees on pastures; sloping pastures; full‐time pasture access; no food supplementation; normal body condition; pigmenturia; normothermia; and congested mucous membranes. Nonsurvival was associated with recumbency, sweating, anorexia, dyspnoea, tachypnoea and/or tachycardia. Survival was associated with remaining standing most of the time, normothermia, normal mucous membranes, defaecation and vitamin and antioxidant therapy. Conclusions and potential relevance: This study refines the list of risk factors for AM. Clinical signs valuable for diagnosis and prognosis have been identified, enabling clinicians to improve management of AM cases.     

Relative effectiveness of irish factories in the surveillance of slaughtered cattle for visible lesions of tuberculosis, 2005-2007

Background

In Ireland, every animal is examined at slaughter for its fitness for human consumption. The aim of this study was to determine the relative effectiveness of factories in submitting and subsequently in having suspect lesions confirmed as bovine tuberculosis (TB) lesions during the years 2005-2007. This work provides an update from previously published data for years 2003-2004. During 2005-2007 data were available on 4,401,813 cattle from attested herds (i.e. herds classified free of bovine TB), from which data for potential confounding factors were available for 3,344,057 slaughtered animals at one of the 37 export-licensed factories.

Findings

From these animals, 8,178 suspect lesions were submitted for laboratory confirmation. Lesions from 5,456 (66.7%) animals tested as positive, and 269 (3.2%) were inconclusive for bovine TB. Logistic regression was used to determine adjusted submission and confirmation risks for each factory while controlling for confounding factors. Factory rankings based on adjusted and crude risks were similar. The average crude submission risk for all the factories was 25 lesions per 10,000 animals slaughtered, ranging from 0 to 52. The crude confirmation risk varied between 30.3% and 91.3%.

Conclusions

Substantial variation in the effectiveness of lesion submission and subsequent confirmation as bovine TB was found among the 37 factories. Compared to previous years (2003-2004), there was an increased bovine TB lesion submission and confirmation risk. Continued monitoring of the effectiveness of slaughter surveillance in Ireland is recommended; emphasis should be placed on efforts to improve bovine TB surveillance in factories with lower rankings.     

A case-control study on the association of selected risk factors with the occurrence of bovine tuberculosis in the Republic of Ireland

We did a case-control study on the association between the occurrence of bovine tuberculosis in herds in the East Offaly area and a number of possible risk factors: herd size, the purchasing of cattle, the herd history, the status of contiguous herds, distance to the nearest badger sett, and animal factors such as age, breed and animal type. The characteristics of 100 herds that had a confirmed outbreak of tuberculosis at a herd test in 1988 were compared with those from an equal number of herds that passed at least one tuberculin test during that year. The study base consisted of 1379 herds mainly from the eastern part of County Offaly. The data were analysed at both herd and animal levels. Factors that were associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis breakdowns at the herd level were (i) the total number of animals in the herd and (ii) the restriction of a contiguous herd for tuberculosis within a period of 6 months prior to or following the herd under study. A number of factors were associated with an animal having an increased risk of failing a tuberculin test. After adjusting for all other variables in the model, cows, heifers and bullocks were 10.3, 14.8 and 8.0 times, respectively, more likely to fail a tuberculin test than calves. Cattle that had teen purchased since the previous herd test were less likely to fail a tuberculin test compared with cattle that had been present at the time of the preceding herd test.     

北流市(县)奶牛结核病流行病学调查研究

为预防、控制和净化北流市奶牛结核病,采用提纯牛型结核菌素(PPD)皮内变态反应诊断,开展奶牛结核病流行学调查。结果表明,厩棚阴暗潮湿、通风不良,无露天运动场,长期圈养,久而容易引起机体抵抗力降低,诱发奶牛结核病,11个奶牛养殖户中,有6户因如此环境饲养被检测有结核阳性牛共14头;4个奶水牛养殖户共奶水牛360头无一感染结核病,表明奶水牛更能适应北流市自然环境和对结核病不易感。     

European outbreaks of atypical myopathy in grazing equids (2006-2009): spatiotemporal distribution, history and clinical features

Reasons for performing study: Improved understanding of the epidemiology of atypical myopathy (AM) will help to define the environmental factors that permit or support the causal agent(s) to exert toxicity. Objectives: This European survey of AM aimed to describe spatiotemporal distribution, survival, clinical signs, circumstances in which AM develops and its different expressions between countries and over time. Methods: The spatiotemporal distribution, history and clinical features of AM cases reported to the Atypical Myopathy Alert Group from 2006 to 2009 were described. Comparisons of data from the most severely affected countries and from the large outbreaks were made with Fisher's exact and Welch's tests with Bonferroni correction. Results: Of 600 suspected cases, 354 met the diagnostic criteria for confirmed or highly probable AM. The largest outbreaks occurred during the autumns of 2006 and 2009 in Belgium, France and Germany. For the first time, donkeys, zebras and old horses were affected, and clinical signs such as gastrointestinal impaction, diarrhoea, penile prolapse, buccal ulceration and renal dysfunction were observed. Affected horses spent >6 h/day on pastures that almost always contained or were surrounded by trees. The latency period was estimated at up to 4 days. Overall survival rate was 26%. Although differences between countries in affected breeds, body condition, horse management and pasture characteristics were recognised, the common presenting clinical signs and mortality were similar between countries. Conclusions and potential relevance: This study describes new data on case details, history and clinical course of AM that is of preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic value. However, the true impact of the findings of this study on the development of or severity of AM should be tested with case–control studies.     

牛分支杆菌CFP-10的原核表达及其在牛结核病诊断中的应用

低分子质量的蛋白抗原CFP-10是一种重要的牛分支杆菌早期分泌蛋白.为了检测该蛋白和其他几种抗原在牛结核病诊断中的临床应用,对CFP-10的基因进行克隆,鉴定,并在原核系统中表达.PCR法扩增cfp-10基因片段,连接到pET-22b( )原核表达载体中,再转入表达宿主E.coli BL21(DE3)PlysS菌株内,用IPTG诱导,进行蛋白表达、纯化.分别以CFP-10、ESAT-6、MPT83、MPT70、牛PPD、CFP-10与ESAT-6混合蛋白,MPT83与MPT70混合蛋白为抗原,用间接ELISA法诊断牛结核病.结果表明,以CFP-10与ESAT-6混合蛋白作为抗原检测牛结核病的特异性和敏感性分别达到了100%和63.6%,均超过了其他单抗原或抗原组合,为以筛选合适抗原为基础的血清学诊断技术提供了有力的支持并创造了良好的应用前景.     

Evaluation of surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) using an individual based epidemiological model

The Netherlands holds the bovine tuberculosis-free (BTB-free) status according to European Union standards, but in recent years small outbreaks of the infection have occurred. After the last outbreak in 1999 with 10 infected herds the question raised if the current surveillance system, visual inspection of carcasses at the slaughterhouse, is efficient enough to detect infected cattle in time and to maintain the official BTB-free status.

Through epidemiological modelling, the risk of a major outbreak is quantified, using one of six surveillance strategies. These are the currently used visual inspection of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (SL), the ELISA test on blood samples of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (ELISA-B), the γ-interferon test on blood samples of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (GAMMA-B), comparative tuberculination of the herd (CT), the combined method of single and comparative tuberculination of the herd (ST + CT) and the ELISA test on samples of bulk milk (ELISA-M). Test frequency of the last three methods was varied as well.

A stochastic individual based model (IBM) was developed to simulate a chain of infected herds, where each individual animal is followed in time. The model mimics the nation-wide situation after the introduction of one infected animal into one herd. BTB-transmission is simulated with an S-E₁-E₂-I state transition model. Output is time until detection of the infection, prevalence in the detected herd and the number of infected herds at the time of detection. For the assessment 500 simulations were used, representing 500 BTB-introductions. Model robustness to parameter values was analysed with Monte Carlo elasticity analysis, for which 1000 simulations were used.

Results of median time until detection and median number of infected farms at detection for SL (302 weeks and seven farms) were in agreement with estimates from an outbreak in the Netherlands in 1999. ELISA-B and GAMMA-B performed better than SL with a much lower median time until detection (189 and 97 weeks, respectively). The results for the tuberculination methods (ST + CT and CT) and ELISA-M depended heavily on the frequency in which the tests were performed. The tuberculination methods ST + CT and CT yield comparable results and detect the infection sooner than SL, also at the lowest tested frequency of once in 5 years. ELISA-M is comparable with SL at frequencies of once in 4 or 5 years, and this test works well at frequencies of once a year or higher. Our study results are used for an economical optimisation analysis of the six surveillance strategies.     

Bovine trypanosomiasis risk in an endemic area on the eastern plateau of Zambia

The control of bovine trypanosomiasis could be improved by using the available control tools during periods when the incidence of the disease is highest. The present study assessed the monthly risk of bovine trypanosomiasis in 85 sentinel cattle kept on the tsetse-infested eastern plateau of Zambia during a period of 19 consecutive months. To avoid problems associated with persistence of infections because of trypanocidal drug resistance and/or the time lag between sampling and molecular analysis, a survival analysis and the subsequent calculation of risk was used as an indicator of challenge. Results showed that the average monthly risk of infection (92.3% due to Trypanosoma congolense) was 6%. It was significantly higher (7.7%) during the beginning of the rainy season (December-February). According to the outcome of the study, bovine trypanosomiasis control in the study area can be improved through increasing control efforts during this period of highest challenge.     

2016—2020年可克达拉市牛口蹄疫免疫抗体监测分析

[目的]为科学评估牛口蹄疫免效果,及时有效开展疫情预警预报,制定有针对性防控策略.[方法]第四师畜牧兽医工作站对2016—2020年集中免疫后牛口蹄疫免疫血清抗体检测数据进行整理分析.[结果]共检测牛O型口蹄疫免疫血清样品6797份,合格6334份,平均合格率93.19％;牛A型口蹄疫免疫血清样品5997份,合格550...     

Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis and animal level risk factors for indigenous cattle under different grazing strategies in the livestock/wildlife interface areas of Zambia

A cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and animal level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in indigenous cattle of the livestock/wildlife interface areas in Zambia. A total of 944 cattle from 111 herds were investigated. The comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CIDT) was used to identify reactor animals for BTB. Animal level data on sex, age, parity and body condition score were registered. The overall animal prevalence of BTB as determined by the CIDT was 6.8% (95% CI: 4.2, 9.5%). In Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon areas, animal level prevalence were observed at 5.2% (95% CI: 2.2, 8.2%) and 9.6% (95% CI: 6.1, 13.2%), respectively. Kazungula, an area outside the livestock/wildlife interface, had a prevalence of only 0.8% (95% CI: 0.0, 2.3%). The age of the animal, its body condition score and the type of management system, were predictive of its BTB status. The study revealed that BTB was relatively high in the livestock/wildlife interface areas of Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon compared to Kazungula. These findings should raise a serious public health concern considering the extent to which the communities of the study areas are in contact with their animals and the levels at which they use untreated milk.     

Mycobacterium bovis prevalence affects the performance of a commercial serological assay for bovine tuberculosis in African buffaloes

The endemic presence of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in African buffaloes in South Africa has severe consequences for BTB control in domestic cattle, buffalo ranching and wildlife conservation, and poses a potential risk to public health. This study determined the BTB prevalence in free-ranging buffaloes in two game reserves and assessed the influence of the prevalence of mycobacterial infections on the performance of a commercial cattle-specific serological assay for BTB (TB ELISA). Buffaloes (n = 997) were tested with the tuberculin skin test and TB ELISA; a subset (n = 119) was tested longitudinally. Culture, PCR and sequencing were used to confirm infection with M. bovis and/or non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM). Prevalence of BTB, but not NTM, influenced the TB ELISA performance. Multiple testing did not increase test confidence. The findings strongly illustrate the need for development of novel assays that can supplement existing assays for a more comprehensive testing scheme for BTB in African buffaloes.     

Age-period-cohort analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Switzerland

Cattle born after animal-feed control measures were implemented in 1990 have become BSE cases in Switzerland, indicating sub-optimal effectiveness of these measures. To evaluate these measures, the incidence of BSE cases in Switzerland recorded through clinical case reporting from January 1991 to June 2000 (categorized into age groups and birth cohorts of 6-month duration) was analyzed by Poisson log-linear regression using an age–period–cohort model. The incidence was maximum in the cattle cohort born from October 1989 to March 1990, and dropped to zero in the cohort born from April to September 1991. A second peak was observed in a cohort born from April to September 1994. The first drop of incidence is interpreted as a result of initial implementation of the feed ban in 1990. The second peak might be related to exposure of cattle to feed intended for pigs and poultry.