宁夏清水河产业带新型城镇化与房地产业耦合发展空间分析

基于新型城镇化与房地产业耦合发展为视角,建立了宁夏清水河产业带新型城镇化与房地产业发展耦合度评价指标体系,借助耦合协调度模型与耦合发展度模型,对该区10个县(区)单元的新型城镇化与房地产业发展的耦合关系进行空间分析。结果表明：① 研究区新型城镇化与房地产业整体协调度处于磨合阶段,系统之间相互作用与影响力显著,但并没有达到协调水平,协调度最高的是同心县,最低的是红寺堡区;② 新型城镇化与房地产业整体发展度处于中等水平,且空间格局差异较大,耦合发展度最高的是沙坡头区,最低的是红寺堡区;③ 依据耦合协调度与发展度的组合可将研究区新型城镇化与房地产业发展耦合关系分为4大类型：高发展协调区、高发展磨合区、中发展拮抗区、低发展拮抗区。建议在未来新型城镇化建设过程中政府应因城因地的采取差别化的房地产宏观调控政策,促进房地产业发展与新型城镇化建设的协调关系。     

An Empirical Study and Forecast of the Cyclic Fluctuation of Real Estate Investment in China

As one of the key factors affecting the real estate,the development investment exerts leading influence on the real estate industry,which has become the pillar industry in the economic development of China.This paper aims to show the evolution route,the inner rule and the mechanism of the cyclic fluctuation of the real estate investment in China,and to give a reasonable short-term forecast of the investment based on the establishment of the ARIMA model,in order to contribute to a nicer performance of the industry in the future.     

西安市耕地面积变化与经济发展关系的实证研究

为了深入研究西安市耕地面积变化与经济发展之间的关系。选取GDP、全社会固定资产投资总额、城市化水平、二三产业比重与耕地面积作为主要分析指标,运用相关分析等方法对1990-2008年来西安市经济发展与耕地面积变化之间的关系及西安市单位经济增长的耕地资源代价变化进行了研究。结果表明：1990-2008年来,西安市的经济发展与耕地面积变化呈负相关关系,西安市经济发展与耕地变化之间的发展关系属于典型的经济增长超前,耕地减少滞后型;在经济发展诸因素中,城市化水平对耕地面积减少的影响最大;西安市经济发展趋向资金密集型和节地型方向发展,土地的集约化程度正在逐渐提高。     

Study on Tourism Landscape Real Estate in China

Landscape real estate is a high-grade product of tourism development and real estate industry, and a new real estate development mode integrating both investment and consumption. This paper, based on analyzing concepts and characteristics of tourism landscape real estate, elaborated basic principles of landscape real estate development by taking Guosetianxiang in Chengdu City for example, and proposed suggestions for the future development of tourism landscape real estate.     

The Relationship between Land Scale for Constructionand Social Economic Development

I studied land use under the macroscopic background of rapid urbanization in P. R. China. Currently, there are many problems in land use which restrict the urbanization development. Therefore, I hope to discover existing problems, find out the dynamic law of land use, analyze the affecting factors, and probe into the counter-measures and ways to prohibit the short term use and blind development in land use in the urbanization process. I analyze the relationship between construction land, macroeconomic indicators and social development. I mainly analyze data about construction land, GDP, fixed assets, industry, real estate, traffic, and more. I conclude by pointing out their interrelationships.     

Analysis on Unbalance of Real Estate Investment Goal under the Environment of High Profit Margin

With incessant development of Chinese real estate market, the amount and size of real estate corporations are enlarging rapidly and the real estate corporation investment goal is tending to become divertive. So it is especially important to understand rightly the investment goal of the real estate corporations. This paper analyzes the unbalance phenomena of real estate corporation investment under the environment of high profit margin and discusses the serious aftereffect from this unbalance. Finally this paper brings forward the right order of investment goals for the real estate corporations in order to contribute to a nicer performance of real estate corporations in establishing sustainable development stratagem.     

New Financial Tool of Real Estate - Real Estate Investment Trust

The real estate investment trust (REIT) as a new tool of real estate investment is introduced in this paper by the way of analyzing the status quo of real estate circulation funds. The importance of developing REIT in China is analyzed. Referring to the foreign experience, the basic principles, classification of REIT and the different characteristics for the investors and the real estate companies are introduced. The difficulties in developing REIT in the capital market and in the investment market in China are discussed. The countermeasures to deal with the situation are presented. REIT is valuable in forming the real estate investment market and healthy development of real estate.     

Application of Flow Analysis to Risk Management of Land Investment

Combined with the development flow of real estate project,firstly a flow analysis is put forward for land investment risk identification of real estate projects,then by method of list analysis and method of expectancy computing to determine the risk level and the gain and loss of expectancy of land investment.Based on the relation and flow chart of land investment risk,the risk intensity of land investment is computed,in order to achieve an objective,effective and scientific dynamic management of land investment risk.     

Discussion on Problems and Countermeasures of RealEstate Management in China

The problems and their causations of real estate management in our country are analysed and four countermeasures are presented in this paper. It is hoped to advance quality and level of real estate management in our country and to promote healthy development and positive circulation of real estate industry.     

The Real Option Method of Real Estate Exploitation Evaluation

Real estate exploitations have high risk and its exploitation environment is quite uncertain. The traditional investment value methods, such as the net present value and discount cash flow methods, usually undervalue the real estate value. In this paper the real option pricing theories and methods are applied to discuss real estate investment value under uncertainty. This method provides a new approach for real estate items.     

Model of Real Estate Portfolio Investment Based on the Least Risk

The high-speed development demands new real estate investment theory. Using the experiences of the Western developed countries for reference in property investment and modern portfolio investment theory, the paper introduces the conception of systematic and unsystematic risk with the centre of risk and profit. Consequently, the model of real estate base on least risk and anticipated profit is studied in the discussion of its concerned hypothesis and determining the concerned parameters. With living example analysis, we reach the conclusion that portfolio investment risk is smaller than single investment if the investor adjusts the tactics of portfolio investment.     

Real Option Method in Real Estate Investment Decision

Through analysis of basic assumptions and limitations of the conventional real estate investment decision method, in this paper, its unconformity to the investment environment, which includes a great number of uncertain elements, is pointed out. By analyzing the real option and the price formula, the pattern of real option in real estate investment decision is put forward and this breaks through the limitations of the conventional investment decision method and makes the decision scientifically and reasonably, moreover, it has some directive significance to investment administration work of real estate corporation.     

基于GS-SVR的耕地面积预测及其驱动因子分析

影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子复杂多变,难以确定。为了合理选择耕地面积的驱动因子,提高耕地面积的预测精度,指导耕地资源科学分配利用,通过采用一种基于GS-SVR自变量全组合预测均方误差(Mean Squared Error,MSE)最小原则的方法确定耕地面积的驱动因子。并以湖南省耕地面积变化为例,通过SVR-CAR、LSSVM、BPNN、ARIMA和MLRR等常用的时间序列预测方法来验证所选取驱动因子的有效性。结果表明,湖南省耕地面积变化的最优驱动因子组合为城市化水平和房地产业产值指数,且常用时间序列预测方法采用GS-SVR全组合方式选取的驱动因子组合大幅度提高了耕地面积的预测精度。采用GS-SVR自变量全组合均方误差最小原则的方法选择耕地面积的驱动因子是科学合理的,在耕地面积等时间序列预测领域具有广泛的应用前景。     

On Application of the Price Mechanism in Real Estate Market

At present the contradiction between the supply and demand of the commercial real estate becomes more and more acute. There are two sides of unbalance, one of them relates to the total amount about the supply and demand, the other relates to the structure of them. Either of them can block the circulation of the market and restrict the development of the real estate if any inconsistency happened. The most important reason, which results in the disharmony, in the author's opinion, lies in the inefficiency of the price mechanism in real estate market.     

A Study on the Phases Division of Real Estate Project Life Cycle in China

Recently,many large and medium-sized real estate companies in China have attempted to construct a standard project management system regarding project culture,organization and value chain,to enhance their ability of integrating resources and effectively delivering projects.An appropriate definition of project phases is the base of standard management for these enterprises.According to the existed literature and the observation of some real estate companies,a Six-Phase(SP) approach is presented.The method standardizes real estate project in China by dividing a project life cycle into six phases.A case study shows that the six phases correspond appropriately with those suggested by the departments of four real estate companies.An industry survey by means of questionnaire has also been conducted.The respondents,most of which are the CEOs from 50 real estate companies in China,agreed that this approach is reasonable and acceptable.     

A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

Investment Choice for the Tail Part of Real Estate Based on a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

As the real estate industry in P. R. China developed rapidly in recent years and the housing price constantly rose, the Tail Part of Real Estate (TPRE) became a new investment option for shrewd investors due to its huge profit possibilities. We appraise the investment values of different TPREs and provide the investor with scientific decision making support regarding the selection of TPREs. We introduce the TPRE concept and analyze the causes and factors influencing TPRE formation. We construct a mathematical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to analyze the investment options for TPREs. We provide an example showing how to analyze the TPRE investment choices using our method provided herein. It could be a good reference for the investors in choosing a TPRE for investment.     

The Influence of Interest RateReduction on the Real Estates

The fluctuation of interest rate may affect the market of real estate.In Oct. l997,the central bank declared the interest rate reduction.This will promote the investment in the field of real estate,on the other hand,the developers' interest burden will be reduced as well.Thus,the cost of building will be declined and its price also will fall.At present,if we want to stir the real estate market,the overstocked buildings must be sold .The decline of interest rate makes the goal possible to reach.     

金昌市城市化与就业结构演变的计量分析

基于金昌市1981-2015年的经济统计数据,通过OLS回归模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法定量与定性分析金昌市的城市化水平与就业结构的关系,结果表明：1)城市化进程与三次产业就业结构的演变具有阶段性：初步发展阶段、波动探索阶段、快速发展阶段;2)金昌市的城市化水平与第三产业就业结构呈现正向的脉冲关系,与第二产业就业为负向脉冲关系,与第一产业就业为负向脉冲关系;3)金昌市的城市化水平处于快速发展阶段,就业结构以二、三产业为主。     

Analysis on Location Selection for Real Estate Development Based on Set Theory

In order to increase the early decision-making accuracy of the real estate development and lower the overall risk of real estate investment, this paper explored the locations for projects of real estate development in the aspects of theoretical methods and technical levels. The evaluation system of housing project sites was established. It constructed the set model for real estate development projects and studied the concrete operation of the model in practice with a prac- tical example with the rough set theory. The test results showed that the method can reduce impacts from the experience and subjective awareness of decision-makers and increase the accuracy of location decisions.