Density dependence in total egg production per spawner for marine fish

A paradigm of fisheries science holds that spawning stock biomass (SSB) is directly proportional to total egg production (TEP) of fish stocks. This “SSB–TEP proportionality” paradigm has been a basic premise underlying the spawner–recruitment models for fisheries management and numerous studies on recruitment mechanisms of fish. Studies on maternal effects on reproductive potential of a stock have progressed during the last few decades, leading to doubt concerning the paradigm. Nonetheless, a direct test of the paradigm at multidecadal scales has been difficult because of data limitations in the stock assessment systems worldwide. Here, we tested the paradigm for marine fish based on a novel combination of two independent 38‐year time series: fishery‐dependent stock assessment data and fishery‐independent egg survey data. Through this approach, we show that the SSB–TEP proportionality is distorted by density dependence in total egg production per spawner individual (TEPPS) or spawner unit weight (TEPPSW) at a multidecadal scale. The TEPPS/TEPPSW exponentially declined with biomass and thus was density‐dependent for Japanese sardine, a small pelagic species exhibiting a high level of population fluctuation, in the western North Pacific. By contrast, the TEPPS/TEPPSW was sardine‐density‐dependent for Japanese anchovy, another small pelagic species exhibiting a moderate level of population fluctuation well‐known for being out of phase with sardine. Our analysis revealed intraspecific (sardine) and interspecific (anchovy) density dependence in TEPPS/TEPPSW, which was previously unaccounted for in spawner–recruitment relationships. Such density‐dependent effects at the time of spawning should be considered in fisheries management and studies on recruitment mechanisms.     

Disentangling density‐dependent effects on egg production and survival from egg to recruitment in fish

Understanding of density‐dependent effects is key to achieving sustainable management of self‐regulating biological resources such as fish stocks. Traditionally, density‐dependent effects on population abundance in fish have been considered to occur from hatching to recruitment, based on the paradigm of proportionality between spawning stock biomass and total egg production. Here, we demonstrate how the existence of intraspecific and interspecific density dependence in egg production changes the current understanding of density‐dependent processes in the life history of fish, by disentangling density‐dependent effects on egg production and survival from egg to recruitment, using sardine (Sardinops melanostictus, Clupeidae) and anchovy (Engraulis japonicus, Engraulidae) as model species. For sardine, strong intraspecific density‐dependent effects occurred in egg production, but no density‐dependent effects occurred or if any they were weak enough to be masked by environmental factors from hatching to recruitment. In contrast, for anchovy, interspecific density‐dependent effects occurred in egg production. In the survival after hatching, anchovy experienced stronger intraspecific density‐dependent effects than currently recognized. This analysis could overturn the current understanding of density‐dependent effects in the life history, highlighting contrasts between the effects on individual quality and population abundance and between the model species. We propose to reconsider the basis of fisheries management and recruitment studies based on the revised understanding of density‐dependent effects in the life history of the respective species.     

Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for management

We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969–87 and unfavorable during 1951–67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976–77 and 1985–88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969–70 and 1988–92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes.     

北太平洋小型中上层鱼类资源对气候–海洋变化的响应研究进展

小型中上层鱼类是北太平洋海域重要的渔业资源,具有生命周期短、生长速度快、高集群性等特点,其资源年间波动显著,且受气候-海洋变化的影响。本文围绕秋刀鱼（Coloabis saira）、鲣（Katsuwonus pelamis）、鲐（Scomber japonicus）、鳀（Engraulis japonious）、竹䇲鱼（Trachurus japonicus）、沙丁鱼（Sardinops sagax）6种主要的小型中上层鱼类,回顾了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation,ENSO）、太平洋年代际振荡（the Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）、黑潮-亲潮（Kuroshio-Oyashio,KR-OY）等关键气候-海洋指数的特点及对鱼类栖息地环境和资源变动的影响。概括了气候-海洋变化对小型中上层鱼类的洄游分布和资源丰度的直接影响过程,以及对亲体繁殖产卵、仔稚体成活率和资源量波动间接的滞后影响过程。建议：（1）在多种气候-海洋指数基础上添加种群动态过程、捕捞方式系数、自然死亡率等参数构建生物量动态模型,揭示气候-海洋变化对渔业资源量的影响过程;（2）结合北太平洋涛动（North Pacific oscillation,NPO）、北极涛动（Arctic oscillation,AO）、北太平洋环流振荡（North Pacific gyre oscillation,NPGO）等其他北太平洋主要气候,基于物理海洋模型及空间耦合水动力学模型研究大尺度海流、中尺度涡旋对小型中上层鱼类影响。     

Predation dynamics of mackerel on larval and juvenile anchovy: is capture success linked to prey condition?

We tested whether the predation dynamics of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus and spotted mackerel S. australasicus on young anchovy Engraulis japonicus relates to individual growth characteristics of the prey and could account for the growth-selective survival predicted by recruitment hypotheses. Juvenile and adult mackerel were sampled along with their young anchovy prey field in 2004 (juvenile mackerel and larval anchovy) and 2005 (adult mackerel and juvenile anchovy) off the Pacific coast of Honshu, Japan. The recent 5-day mean growth rate of larval and juvenile survivors and prey found in the stomach of mackerel was estimated from the otolith microstructure. No significant difference was found between the recent growth of larval or juvenile survivors and that of preyed individuals. We conclude that despite a relatively small body size, the high activity level and predation skills displayed by mackerel prevent fast-growing larvae and early juveniles from benefitting in terms of the expected survival advantage over slow-growers. Hence, growth-selective predation mortality of larval fish would depend on the feeding ecology of the predator rather than predator size. Selection for fast growth is more likely to occur under predation pressure from invertebrate organisms and small pelagic fish specialized on zooplankton, such as herring and anchovy.     

Alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy caught by coastal fishery in relation to the Kuroshio meander in the Enshu-nada Sea

In the mid 1970s, the fishery catch of postlarval Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in a shelf region of the Enshu‐nada Sea, off the central Pacific coast of Japan, started to decline corresponding to a rapid increase of postlarval sardine (Sardinops melanostictus). In late 1980s, sardine started to decline, and it was replaced by anchovy in the 1990s. This alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy corresponded to the alternation in egg abundance of these two species in the spawning habitat of this sea. It was also noteworthy that during the period of sardine decline, sardine spawning occurred in April–May, a delay of two months compared with spawning in the late 1970s. The implication of oceanographic changes in the spawning habitat for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy eggs was explored using time‐series data obtained in 1975–1998, focusing on the effect of the Kuroshio meander. Large meanders of the Kuroshio may have enhanced the onshore intrusion of the warm water into the shelf region and contributed to an increase in temperature in the spawning habitat. This might favour sardine, because its egg abundance in the shelf region was more dependent on the temperature in early spring than was that of anchovy. In addition, enhanced onshore intrusion could contribute to transport of sardine larvae from upstream spawning grounds of the Kuroshio region. On the other hand, anchovy egg abundance was more closely related to lower transparency at the shelf edge, which may indicate the prevalence and prolonged residence of the coastal water, and therefore higher food availability, frequently accompanying non‐meandering Kuroshio. The expansion/shrinkage of the spawning habitat of sardine and anchovy in the shelf region, apparently responding to the change in the Kuroshio, possibly makes the alternation in dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy most prominent in the Enshu‐nada Sea, in combination with changes in the abundance of spawning adults, which occurred almost simultaneously in the overall Kuroshio region. The implication of this rather regional feature for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy populations on a larger spatial scale is also discussed.     

Egg and larval distributions of seven fish species in north-east Atlantic waters

The distribution of egg and larvae of mackerel, horse mackerel, sardine, hake, megrim, blue whiting and anchovy along the European Atlantic waters (south Portugal to Scotland) during 1998 is described. Time of the year, sea surface temperature and bottom depth are used to define the spawning habitat of the different species. Mackerel, horse mackerel, and sardine eggs and larvae presented the widest distribution, whereas megrim and anchovy showed a limited distribution, restricted to the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay respectively. Correspondingly mackerel, horse mackerel and sardine showed the highest aggregation indices. Blue whiting larvae were found at the lowest temperatures, whereas anchovy eggs and larvae were found in the warmest waters. The analysis is a basis for evaluation of ongoing changes in the pelagic ecosystem of the north‐east Atlantic.     

A Study of Lipid Bioaccessibility in Canned Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus)

The lipid composition and bioaccessibility in canned sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) were studied. Triacylglycerols were absent from the bioaccessible fraction in both products and each FA had a different bioaccessibility level. While total fat bioaccessibility was in the 60–64% range, the bioaccessibility of ω6 PUFA and DHA was <55%. Bioaccessibility depended on canned fish product species: fat, EPA, DHA, and ω3 PUFA bioaccessibility levels seemed to be higher in canned sardine than in canned mackerel. Daily consumption of 278 g of canned mackerel or 47 g of canned sardine would ensure the recommended daily intake of EPA+ DHA.     

Decadal changes in the diet of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) migrating off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan

Decadal changes in northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) diet were examined based on the stomach contents data collected off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan from January to April, 1953–1988. Seventeen families of fish and seven families of squid were identified from the stomach contents. Dominant prey species in terms of percentage of occurrence and wet weight were Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus), chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), and myctophid fishes. Demersal fishes, sparkling enope squid (Watasenia scintillans), and oceanic squids were also preyed on at low incidences. Decadal‐scale diet composition of northern fur seals revealed shifts in the significance of Japanese sardine and chub mackerel in parallel with the decadal alternation in the dominance of these species within the pelagic fish community off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. These results suggest that northern fur seals can use a variety of prey resources in this wintering area by switching the diet according to the distribution and abundance of prey species.     

Which are the best environmental conditions for catching the beach‐seine target species? A Portuguese case study

The beach‐seine fishery is a commercial fishing activity on the Portuguese coast, with reports dating as far back as the early 15th century. The main target species of this fishery are small pelagic fish such as Atlantic chub mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel and sardine. To identify the best conditions for fishing the target species, catches of beach seine (2007–2017) were used and generalized linear models were applied, using a binomial and gamma distributions. The logistic model explained between 36.3% and 45.7% of the catches variability; the gamma model explained 9.1% and 46.9% of the catches variability, being month and wind direction the best covariates for the occurrence and/or abundance of the three small pelagic fishes in analysis. If the effort is directed to the days that meet the conditions found for each species (sardine: between May and October, wind NW, daytime; Atlantic horse mackerel: May, NW/NE wind, 800 m from the coastline; Atlantic chub mackerel: from July to August, NW moderate wind), a reduction in bycatch and discards can be achieved. This approach can have a positive economic and social impact, since it provides information for turning fisheries more efficient.     

Is spawning stock biomass a robust proxy for reproductive potential?

Reference points based on fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) are a requirement of many fisheries management frameworks. SSB is assumed to be a proxy for stock reproductive potential (SRP). Limit reference points based on SSB are used to indicate the level of biomass below which productivity is affected. SSB fails to account for changes in fecundity, egg viability and sex ratio, and it has been argued that total egg production (TEP) provides a better reflection of SRP. We explore how accounting for TEP impacts limit reference points and evidence for a relationship between stock and recruit. Time series of SSB and TEP are compared for three North Sea stocks: cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Dynamics based on TEP are different from those based on SSB for cod and plaice, but the stock–recruit relationships were not ‘improved’ using TEP. Shifts in productivity (spawner per recruit) occur in all three time series and SSB underestimated uncertainty. Yet again, it was shown that assumptions of stationarity about fish population productivity are incorrect. We argue that the use of TEP does improve the realism in our understanding of stock dynamics, and demographically, more complex management strategy evaluation is required to develop management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and integrate F and the demographic health of a stock. Empirical feedback control systems based on fisheries independent indices including surveys of eggs, larvae, recruits, juveniles or spawning adults should be evaluated and compared to traditional approaches.     

Fisheries management based on ecosystem dynamics and feedback control

Recently, ecosystem management has become popular for forestry, agriculture and fisheries management. Carrying capacity and maximum sustainable yield for a particular species definitely depend on population sizes of other species in the same ecosystem. Natural stock fluctuations of sardine, anchovy and chub mackerel are well known examples of large, natural fluctuations. There is a negative correlation among their fluctuations. In accordance with the cyclic advantage hypothesis for replacement of pelagic fish species (Matsuda et al., 1992), we can predict the next dominant species, despite an uncertainty in the year of the next replacement. We recommend that commercial fisheries should switch their target to the next dominant species before the stock of the present dominant species collapses. Whilst total allowable catch (TAC) of the present dominant species can be as large as we can consume, TAC after the species collapses should be much smaller than the present catch level.     

1999—2011年东、黄海鲐资源丰度年间变化分析

根据1999—2011年我国鲐大型灯光围网渔业数据,使用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)估算了影响CPUE的时间(年、月)、空间(经度、纬度)、捕捞性能和环境效应[海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表面高度、海表面叶绿素浓度],并以年效应作为资源丰度指数,分析了东、黄海鲐资源丰度的年间变化,东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数的年间变化与产卵场海表面温度以及捕捞强度间的关系。GAM结果表明,时间、空间、捕捞和环境变量对CPUE偏差的解释率为11.69%,其中变量年的解释率最大,占总解释率的38%。结果显示,1999—2011年东、黄海鲐鱼资源丰度指数(abundance index,AI)总体上呈下降趋势,2008年以来更是持续下降,丰度指数由2008年的1.22降至2011年的0.82。东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数年间与产卵场呈正相关,关系式为AI=-3.51+0.23SST(P0.05),这表明较高的产卵场SST对鲐资源量增加有利。过高的渔获量以及我国群众围网渔业渔船数量的快速增长是导致近年来鲐鱼资源下降的重要原因。     

Metabolic measurements and parameter estimations for bioenergetics modelling of Pacific Chub Mackerel Scomber japonicus

As a crucial step in developing a bioenergetics model for Pacific Chub Mackerel Scomber japonicus (hereafter chub mackerel), parameters related to metabolism, the largest dissipation term in bioenergetics modelling, were estimated. Swimming energetics and metabolic data for nine chub mackerel were collected at 14°C, a low temperature within the typical thermal range of this species, using variable‐speed swim‐tunnel respirometry. These new data were combined with previous speed‐dependent metabolic data at 18 and 24°C and single‐speed (1 fork length per second: FL/s) metabolic data at 15 and 20°C to estimate respiration parameters for model development. Based on the combined data, the optimal swimming speed (the swimming speed with the minimum cost of transport, U_opt) was 42.5 cm/s (1.5–3.0 FL/s or 2.1 ± 0.4 FL/s) and showed no significant dependence on temperature or fish size. The daily mass‐specific oxygen consumption rate (R, g O₂ g fish^?1 day^?1) was expressed as a function of fish mass (W), temperature (T) and swimming speed (U): R = 0.0103W^?0.490 e^(0.0457T) e^(0.0235U). Compared to other small pelagic fishes such as Pacific Herring Clupea harengus pallasii, Pacific Sardine Sardinops sagax and various anchovy species, chub mackerel respiration showed a lower dependence on fish mass, temperature and swimming speed, suggesting a greater swimming ability and lower sensitivity to environmental temperature variation.     

Estimation of the spawning grounds of chub mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber japonicus</Emphasis> and spotted mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber australasicus</Emphasis> in the East China Sea based on catch statistics and biometric data

The spawning grounds of the chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and spotted mackerel (Scomber australasicus) in the East China Sea were estimated based on catch statistics of the Japanese large- and medium-type purse seine fishery from 1992 to 2006. Biometric data were obtained from specimens caught by purse seiners in the East China Sea from 1998 to 2006. Gonadosomatic index (GSI) at 50% sexual maturity of chub mackerel and spotted mackerel females was 2.5 and 2.6, respectively. Using this criterion for GSI, chub mackerel larger than 275 mm and spotted mackerel larger than 310 mm in fork length were considered to be mature. Mature chub mackerel was observed in the area of 15–22°C sea surface temperature (SST), and mature spotted mackerel was observed in the area of 17–25°C SST. The spawning period of chub mackerel ranged from February to June, and that of spotted mackerel ranged from February to May in the East China Sea. The spawning grounds were estimated from the distributions of catch per unit effort (CPUE) of spawners and SST. As a result, the spawning ground of chub mackerel was estimated to be in the central and southern part of the East China Sea and the area west of Kyushu in February, March, and April, and in the central part of the East China Sea, the area west of Kyushu and Tsushima Straight in May, and in Tsushima Straight and western part of the Sea of Japan in June. The spawning ground of spotted mackerel was estimated to be in the central and southern part of the East China Sea and southern coastal area of Kyushu in February, March, and April, and the central and southern part of the East China Sea and the area west of Kyushu in May.     

Importance of the Shatsky Rise Area in the Kuroshio Extension as an offshore nursery ground for Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and sardine (Sardinops melanostictus)

Recent findings suggest that recruitment of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) depends on survival during not only the first feeding larval stage in the Japanese coastal waters and the Kuroshio front but also during the post‐larval and juvenile stages in the Kuroshio Extension. Spatial distributions of juvenile anchovy and sardine around the Shatsky Rise area in the Kuroshio Extension region and the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition region are described, based on a field survey in the late spring using a newly developed mid‐water trawl for sampling juveniles. All stages of anchovy from post‐larvae to juveniles were obtained in the northern Shatsky Rise area. The Kuroshio Extension bifurcates west of the Shatsky Rise area and eddies are generated, leading to higher chlorophyll concentrations than in the surrounding regions in April and May. When Japanese anchovy and sardine spawn near the Kuroshio front or the coastal waters south‐east of Japan, their larvae are transported by the Kuroshio Extension and are retained in the Shatsky Rise area, which forms an important offshore nursery ground, especially during periods of high stock abundance.     

Effects of synthetic kisspeptin peptides and GnRH analogue on oocyte growth and circulating sex steroids in prepubertal female chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus)

In recent years, kisspeptin peptides, encoded by kiss genes have been used to manipulate reproductive processes in farmed animals, including fish. Our previous studies demonstrated that the chub mackerel brain expresses kiss1 and kiss2 and intramuscular injection of synthetic Kiss1 pentadecapeptide (Kiss1‐15) but not Kiss2 dodecapeptide (Kiss2‐12) accelerates spermatogenesis in prepubertal male chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus). In the present study, we evaluated their effects in prepubertal female chub mackerel. The gonadosomatic index (GSI) values of experimental fish did not show any significant changes. Condition factor (CF) values increased significantly in Kiss1‐15 treated fish, in comparison with control and GnRH analogue (GnRHa) injected fish. Histologically, only perinucleolar oocytes were found in all experimental fish. However, Kiss and GnRHa treated fish showed a significant increase in the perinucleolar oocyte diameter, in comparison with the control fish. Gene expression analyses revealed decreased expression of gnrh1 in the telencephalon‐preoptic region of the brain of Kiss2‐12 and GnRHa injected fish, in comparison with control fish. In contrast, GnRHa injected fish exhibited higher levels of fshβ in the pituitary, with no changes in the levels of lhβ among different treatments. Levels of circulating sex steroids, testosterone, and estradiol‐17β were significantly higher in Kiss1‐15 injected fish, in comparison with control fish. These results indicate that synthetic kisspeptin peptides and GnRHa can induce oocyte growth in prepubertal female chub mackerel.     

Seasonal and interannual variations of oceanographic conditions off Mangalore coast (Karnataka, India) in the Malabar upwelling system during 1995–2004 and their influences on the pelagic fishery

Mangalore coast is well known for its multi‐species and multi‐gear fisheries and the fishery and oceanographic features of this region is a true representation of the Malabar upwelling system. Ten years of study (1995–2004) of oceanographic parameters has been carried out from the inshore waters off Mangalore to understand their seasonal and interannual variations and influences on the pelagic fishery of the region. Attempt has been also made to understand the influence of local and global environmental conditions on the alternating patterns of abundance between the Indian mackerel and oil sardine from the area. Field‐ and satellite‐derived oceanographic data have shown that coastal upwelling occurs during July–September with a peak in August resulting in high nutrient concentrations and biological productivity along the coast. Nearly 70% of the pelagic fish catch, dominated by oil sardine and mackerel, was obtained during September–December, during or immediately after the upwelling season. Catches of scombroid fishes were significantly related to cold Sea Surface Temperature, while such relationships were not observed for sardines and anchovies. Significant positive correlations were observed between the ENSO events (MEI) and seawater temperature from the study area. The extreme oceanographic events associated with the cold La Niña, which preceded the exceptional 1997–98 El Niño event, were responsible for the collapse of the pelagic fishery, especially the mackerel fishery along the southwest coast of India (Malabar upwelling system). Coinciding with the collapse of the mackerel fishery, oil sardine populations revived during 1999–2000 all along the southwest coast of India. Tolerance of oil sardine to El Niño / La Niña events and the low predatory pressure experienced by their eggs and larvae due to the collapse of mackerel population might have resulted in its population revival.     

Fine scale spatial pattern of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) eggs

Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) eggs exhibited different spatial structure on the scale of 0.75–2.5 km in two egg patches sampled in the Southern California Bight in April 2000. Plankton samples were collected at 4‐min intervals with a Continuous Underway Fish Egg Sampler (CUFES) on 5 × 5 km grids centered on surface drifters. Variograms were calculated for sardine and anchovy eggs in Lagrangian coordinates, using abundances of individual developmental stages grouped into daily cohorts. Model variograms for sardine eggs have a low nugget effect, about 10% of the total variance, indicating high autocorrelation between adjacent samples. In contrast, model variograms for anchovy eggs have a high nugget effect of 50–100%, indicating that most of the variance at the scales sampled is spatially unstructured. The difference between observed spatial patterns of sardine and anchovy eggs on this scale may reflect the behavior of the spawning adults: larger, faster, more abundant fish may organize into larger schools with greater structure and mobility that create smoother egg distributions. Size and mobility vary with population size in clupeoids. The current high abundance of sardines and low abundance of anchovy off California agree with the greater autocorrelation of sardine egg samples and the observed tendency for locations of anchovy spawning to be more persistent on the temporal scale of days to weeks. Thus the spatial pattern of eggs and the persistence of spawning areas are suggested to depend on species, population size and age structure, spawning intensity and characteristic physical scales of the spawning habitat.     

Modeling and forecasting pelagic fish production using univariate and multivariate ARIMA models

ABSTRACT:   Univariate and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to model and forecast the monthly pelagic production of fish species in the Mediterranean Sea during 1990–2005. Autocorrelation (AC) and partial autocorrelation (PAC) functions were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of seasonal ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future catch per unit of effort (CPUE) values. Univariate and multivariate ARIMA models satisfactorily predicted the total pelagic fish production and the production of anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel. The univariate ARIMA models demonstrated a good performance in terms of explained variability and predicting power. The current findings revealed a strong autoregressive character providing relatively high R ² and satisfactory forecasts that were close to the recorded CPUE values. The present results also indicated that the multivariate ARIMA outperformed the univariate ARIMA models in terms of fitting accuracy. The opposite was evidenced when testing the forecasting accuracy of the two methods, where the univariate ARIMA models overall performed better than the multivariate models. The observed seasonal pattern in the monthly production series was attributed to the intrinsic nature of the pelagic fishery. As anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel represent main target species in the Mediterranean pelagic fishery, the findings of the present study provided direct support for the potential use of accurate forecasts in decision making and fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea.