Co-operative forest fuel procurement strategy and its saving effects on overall transportation costs

Abstract

Minimum procurement cost is an essential element for the competitiveness of the forest fuel supply chain. This paper compares one co-operative procurement strategy with several non-co-operative strategies by measuring the cost gap. For a study region consisting of five Austrian provinces, forest fuel supply potential and transportation costs were investigated concerning 28 newly built combined heat and power (CHP) plants. In the case of co-operation, the minimum total transportation cost was derived by solving the corresponding transportation problem. In non-co-operative supply chains, CHP plants compete for forest fuel. This case was illustrated by analysing three different clearly non-co-operative procurement strategies, because CHP plants guard their real supply sources as business secrets. The minimum procurement cost for all CHP plants is provided by the co-operative strategy. It comprises a total transportation cost of €17 million and an average procurement distance of 122 km. Co-operation between CHP plants lowers forest fuel transportation costs by 23% on average and reduces average transportation distances by 26%. The resultant cost-cutting potential stresses the importance of co-operation between CHP plants in order to allocate forest fuel supplies efficiently. Establishing partnerships and working alliances for forest fuel procurement therefore has important management implications for achieving efficiency in forest fuel supplies and strengthening the competitiveness of wood-fuel-based energy production.     

Cost analysis of a satellite terminal for forest fuel supply in Finland

As forest fuel demand increases, new logistical solutions are needed. Most of the increase in use is expected to take place in large heat and power production units which set special requirements for the supply as both procurement volumes and transport distances increase. Biomass fuel terminals broaden the spectrum of available supply options by offering cost-effective large-scale biomass storage and processing options for securing the fuel supply in all conditions. This study aimed to study different costs of a satellite terminal and to produce important concept and cost information for developing forest fuel logistics based on future terminals. The figures indicate that terminals do not create direct cost benefits per se: direct supply chains are more economical compared to supply through terminals. However, there are several indirect benefits that can be reached via fuel supply through terminals: regional fuel procurement can be widened to a national scale, security of supply increases through easily available storages, large supply volumes can be delivered by an individual operator, prices remain more stable and a more even quality of delivered fuel can be achieved.     

Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National Carbon Accounting System which assumes 50% woody fuel consumption. These models were assessed using field data collected as part of the woody fuel consumption project (WFCP) in south-west Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variability in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These datasets comprised data from south-west Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Combined the dataset represents a range of fire behaviour characteristic of prescribed burning conditions with a maximum fireline intensity of almost 4000 kW m⁻¹.     

In the eye of the storm: adaptation logics of forest owners in management and planning in Swedish areas

With a changing climate, storm and wind throw is becoming an increasing risk to forest. However, Swedish forest management practices have so far involved relatively little consideration of adaptation to climate change. This study examined resistance and alternatives to “business as usual” forest management, drawing upon material obtained in interviews with individual forest owners who spontaneously identified and discussed storm and wind throw as a risk to their forest. They thereby expressed a logic differing from that of the forest industry in Sweden, which has largely normalised storm risk rather than considering it in climate change adaptation work. The present analysis illustrates the broad and largely concerned position of individual forest owners, in contrast with a more established industry position on storm as an accepted and existing risk. Overall, the study highlights the diversity, agency and power relations within Swedish forestry and the forested landscape – aspects that are vital to better understanding processes relevant to forest and climate change adaptation.     

Growing situation of afforested trees and damage to lower-story trees caused by felling in multi-storied forest management in Peninsular Malaysia

The growing condition of afforestation trees and damage to lower-story trees caused by felling and hauling of upper-story trees in a multi-storied forest in Peninsular Malaysia was surveyed. Seventy months have passed since the planting ofAcacia mangium upperstory trees, which have grown 233 m³/ha in volume. The growth ofShorea leprosula thirty-five months after planting of lower-story trees have reached 5.54 m in height. However, as the ratio of height to basal diameter exceeds 100:1, trees are tapering to a considerable degree. A backhoe was installed in order to fell the upper-story trees. From the results of logging, the damage ratio estimation of the lower-story trees was simulated by using the Monte Carlo method. The damage ratio differed considerably depending on planting patterns, height of upper-story trees and felling skills. The results of this survey proved that the felling and hauling of upper-story trees would be technically feasible in the future, except when one row upper-story trees and one row lower-story trees method were employed.     

Spatial fluctuation of forest fires and their regional behaviors

Historical forest fire records from Alaska State (1950–2000), California State (1895-2001), USA and Heilongjiang Province (1980–1999), China were used to calculate the longitude and latitude of the annual burned area’s centroids for these regions. Fluctuation phenomena by year were analyzed using spectrum analysis. The results show that centroids of burned areas in these three regions are in a fluctuating condition that encircles the distribution center. The distribution centers are 151.11°W, 64.96°N in Alaska State, 120.02°W, 37.11°N in California State and 127.07°E, 49.59°N in Heilongjiang Province, respectively. The fluctuation of the burned area’s centroids in Alaska State and California State in longitude has obvious periodicity, and the periodicities are 4.2 years, 6.25 years in Alaska State and 6.24 years, 106 years in California State. The fluctuation of the burned area’s centroids in Heilongjiang Province has a periodicity both in longitude and latitude, and the periodicities are both 3.3 years, 6.67 years. Fluctuation of the burned area’s centroids in Alaska State and California State in latitude does not have periodicity, and big forest fires with low frequencies predominate. __________ Translated from Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2006, 42(5): 89–103 [译自: 林业科学]     

木质素降解真菌的筛选及其对森林地表可燃物的降解效果

【目的】筛选帽儿山人工林地表可燃物中的木质素降解真菌,探究木质素降解菌对不同森林地表可燃物的分解效果,以期找到能够有效降解森林可燃物的真菌菌种,为应用生物降解方法降低森林地表可燃物载量从而降低森林火灾发生概率与森林火险指数提供理论依据和基础数据。【方法】采集东北林业大学帽儿山实验林场尖砬沟森林培育实验站的落叶松、胡桃楸、水曲柳纯林与胡桃楸-落叶松、水曲柳-落叶松混交林内的凋落叶,采用添加抗生素的麦芽浸粉(MEA)培养基进行真菌的分离培养,之后采用愈创木酚平板显色法进行初筛,根据测定菌株的显色情况及菌落圈与显色圈比值筛选高活性木质素降解酶菌株,复筛利用苯胺蓝平板脱色法对菌株木质素氧化酶系进行定性测定,对2次筛选获得的菌株进行形态学及分子鉴定,然后以胡桃楸、水曲柳、落叶松3种可燃物样品作为分解基质,接入木质素降解菌单一及混合菌液,于28℃恒温培养7 d,分别测定经培养后基质中的木质素含量,分析木质素分解规律。【结果】由MEA培养基筛选出的9株真菌有5株在PDA-愈创木酚培养基上发生了显色反应,且菌株B6和Y3的R/r <1,即该2株菌能优先降解木质素;苯胺蓝平板脱色试验结果显示菌株B6和Y3均可使培养基蓝色褪去,即均具有LiP与MnP酶活性;经形态学及分子鉴定,菌株B6为白囊耙齿菌Irpex lacteus,菌株Y3为桦褶孔菌Lenzites betulinus;地表可燃物样品降解试验结果显示,经单一菌液与两者混合菌液培养后,样品中木质素含量均有下降,且经混合菌液处理后的3种可燃物基质表现出相对较好的降解效果;3种基质降解率从高到低依次为水曲柳>胡桃楸>落叶松;菌种Y3对木质素的降解效果较菌种B6好。【结论】混合菌液对可燃物中木质素的分解能力较单一菌液强;菌株B6和Y3之间无拮抗作用,混合后产生协同效应,使木质素降解酶系活力提高,从而可提高木质素降解率;菌种Y3降解能力强于B6;可燃物样品中木质素降解效果因基质不同而存在差异,阔叶可燃物比针叶可燃物易分解。经筛选出的木质素降解菌能有效降解可燃物中的木质素,可在一定程度上减少森林地表可燃物载量,从而降低森林火灾风险。     

槐花黄 举子忙——透视槐树文化与科举制度

文章探讨了槐树文化与中国科举制度之间丰富的文化内涵。槐树（Sophora japonica Linn）．又称国槐,在我国分布广泛,它枝干茂密,淳朴厚重,是人们喜爱的一个乡土树种。     

便携式小区域森林火险天气等级测报仪的研制

提出一种基于嵌入式系统和Android平台的便携式森林火险天气等级测报仪,解决了以往森林火险因天气预报大尺度而无法凸显局部重大火险区的问题,同时内嵌的森林火险天气等级预报的连续化模型克服了现有国家标准中由于预报结果阶跃而带来测报误差的现象。该测报仪便于野外防火工作人员能实时探测和读出所在地区的火险等级,并可依据火险指数制定相适应的防火措施,为森林火灾的预防与控制提供一种新的科学手段及技术工具。     

城市森林火灾隐患及其管理

人为纵火、林区吸烟、施工用火、闪电、林区建筑物以及不合理的城市森林规划等是城市森林火灾发生的重要隐患,常常导致城市森林火灾的发生,给城市居民的生命和财产造成了巨大的损失。加强对城市森林火灾发生原因的研究,合理规划城市森林布局和结构,加强对火灾隐患的管理,减少城市森林火灾的发生,是维护城市生态可持续发展的必然要求。       

Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread

Understanding the spatial pattern of fire is essential for Mediterranean vegetation management. Fire-risk maps are typically constructed at coarse resolutions using vegetation maps with limited capacity for prescribing prevention activities. This paper describes and evaluates a novel approach for fire risk assessment that may produce a decision support system for actual fire management at fine scales. FARSITE, a two-dimensional fire growth and behavior model was activated, using ArcView VBA code, to generate Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. The study area was 300 km² of Mt. Carmel, Israel. FARSITE fuel models were adjusted for Mediterranean conditions. The simulation session consisted of 500 runs. For each simulation run, a calendar date, fire length, ignition location, climatic data and other parameters were selected randomly from known distributions of these parameters. Distance from road served as a proxy for the probability of ignition. The resulting 500 maps of fire distribution (the entire area burnt in a specific fire) were overlaid to produce a map of ‘hotspots’ and ‘cold spots’ of fire frequency. The results revealed a clear pattern of fires, with high frequency areas concentrated in the northwestern part. The spatial pattern of the fire frequency map bears partial resemblance to the fuel map, but seems to be affected by several other factors as well, including the location of urban areas, microclimate, topography and the distribution of ignition locations (which is affected by road pattern). These results demonstrate the complexities of fire behavior, showing a very clear pattern of risk level even at fine scales, where neighboring areas have different risk levels due to combinations of vegetation cover, topography, microclimate and other factors.     

辽东地区森林可被燃物载量的调查研究

森林地被可燃物是引起森林火灾的重要原因，掌握森林地被可燃物的载量分布，对森林火灾的预防有着十分重要的意义。通过对辽东地区不同森林类型的调查，搞清楚了一些常见的主要林型地被可燃物平均载量情况，同时对油松人工砘林、落叶松人工纯林和天然阔叶杂木林3个具有代表性的林型，按不同林分密度、林龄、坡向和坡位等因素，进行地被可燃物载量分布状况调查，结果表明，辽东中、北部地区载量大于辽东南部地区；林分密度和林龄愈大，则载量愈高；南坡载量大于北坡，北坡最小；坡位愈高，则载量愈小。     

Extreme events and climate change: the post-disaster dynamics of forest fires and forest storms in Sweden

How are extreme events understood in the forest sector? What are the implications of forest professionals' understandings and evaluations of extreme events? These questions are central to this study, which analyses the handling of the largest forest storm and the largest forest fire in modern Swedish history. The theoretical approach is that of risk governance in practice, which stresses that understanding the framings, practices and strategies used by members of professional organizations is pivotal for how disasters are managed. Two interview studies have been conducted with forest professionals involved in the two cases. The analysis shows that there were fundamentally different understandings of the two events and their implications for forestry practice. The storm was seen as an unavoidable natural disaster, but the consequences of future storms were considered possible to mitigate through changed forest practices. The forest fire, on the other hand, was conceptualized as a partly natural and partly man-made disaster, and forestry was seen as having very limited possibilities to reduce the likelihood as well as the consequences of similar events. The different understandings had significant implications for the post-disaster dynamics and for which management practices that were developed. Thus, understanding how extreme events are perceived is crucial to understanding which management practices that emerge in their wake, a topic of growing relevance because climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of forest fires and storms.     

Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model

Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However, the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics, especially at the landscape or regional level, has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming, more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time, stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models.     

地被可燃物与林型火险等级划分

采用模糊聚类分析方法，以辽宁省各地区常见的主要林型37个为聚类单元，选取各聚类单元中的林火发生频度、地被可燃物载量、可燃物含水率、凋落物层厚度、可燃物燃烧蔓延速度作为聚类因子，进行全省林型火险等级划分。聚类分析结果划分出了不同火险级别（Ⅰ-Ⅳ）林型，并详细列出Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ级火险林型在省内分布情况。     

基于随机森林和蒙特卡洛的高山松地上碳储量估测及不确定性分析

目的 为了解决碳储量的不确定性受单一类型变量的影响,而忽略了残差变异导致模型不确定性的问题,研究不同类型变量对碳储量估测模型的不确定性。 方法 以香格里拉市高山松为研究对象,采用随机森林联立蒙特卡洛（RF-MC）,基于不同变量组合建立回归模型,判断各模型的不确定性。 结果 表明：（1）光谱和样地数据直接参与RF-MC模型的估测精度及不确定性最差。（2）在上一步的基础上引入纹理特征的模型预测结果优于引入DEM。（3）同时引入DEM和纹理特征的RF-MC模型效果最优（R2=0.892,RMSE=5.539 t·hm−2,MAE = 4.319 t·hm−2, rRMSE=18.7%）。模型拟合度提高了0.343,模型的不确定性降低了19.43%。 结论 基于多特征的RF-MC方法在碳储量估测中效果较好,不同类型的变量对碳储量估测精度及不确定性有一定的影响。     

Ensuring the validity of private forest owner typologies by controlling for response style bias and the robustness of statistical methods

In survey-based segmentation of forest owners, two threats to the validity of results have largely been ignored: (1) response style bias and (2) the robustness of the statistical methods. This study demonstrates response style bias detection, presents an approach for correcting for acquiescence – the systematic tendency to agree with survey items, and explores the sensitivity of a probabilistic clustering algorithm to requirements for the validity of the typology. Structural equation modeling and Monte Carlo data generation techniques were employed to detect acquiescence and estimate its effect on construct validity. A survey of the relevance of management information for private forest owners (N = 364) was used as an example. Although acquiescence was confirmed, it had minor effect on the results and no effect on the substantive construct. Uncertainty about the number of forest owner types and membership can be reduced by using probabilistic clustering and observing the number of clusters while changing the requirements for the validity of clusters. The expectation maximization algorithm proved to be robust even to stringent requirements for the validity of clusters. By controlling for response style and the robustness of statistical methods, the validity of private forest owner typologies can be better ensured.     

Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (temperature, precipitation, drought, wind etc.). Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700?4500 m). 100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model), genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate conifer, Subtropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests). Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios, current scenario, changed precipitation (8% increase), changed temperature (1.07°C increase), and both changed temperature and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.     

A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure

We simulated fuel reduction treatments on a 16,000 ha study area in Oregon, US, to examine tradeoffs between placing fuel treatments near residential structures within an urban interface, versus treating stands in the adjacent wildlands to meet forest health and ecological restoration goals. The treatment strategies were evaluated by simulating 10,000 wildfires with random ignition locations and calculating burn probabilities by 0.5 m flame length categories for each 30 m × 30 m pixel in the study area. The burn conditions for the wildfires were chosen to replicate severe fire events based on 97th percentile historic weather conditions. The burn probabilities were used to calculate wildfire risk profiles for each of the 170 residential structures within the urban interface, and to estimate the expected (probabilistic) wildfire mortality of large trees (>53.3 cm) that are a key indicator of stand restoration objectives. Expected wildfire mortality for large trees was calculated by building flame length mortality functions using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and subsequently applying these functions to the burn probability outputs. Results suggested that treatments on a relatively minor percentage of the landscape (10%) resulted in a roughly 70% reduction in the expected wildfire loss of large trees for the restoration scenario. Treating stands near residential structures resulted in a higher expected loss of large trees, but relatively lower burn probability and flame length within structure buffers. Substantial reduction in burn probability and flame length around structures was also observed in the restoration scenario where fuel treatments were located 5–10 km distant. These findings quantify off-site fuel treatment effects that are not analyzed in previous landscape fuel management studies. The study highlights tradeoffs between ecological management objectives on wildlands and the protection of residential structures in the urban interface. We also advance the application of quantitative risk analysis to the problem of wildfire threat assessment.     

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.