The consequences for the forest sector of nuclear power discontinuation in Sweden

Electricity prices in Sweden will most probably double, or more, during the next 10 to 15 years as a result of the decision to discontinue nuclear power production. This will substantially change the comparative advantage of all forest‐based product industries, some to the worse, some to the better. Roundwood prices and fellings will be affected and possibly the competitive position of wood‐based energy production. This paper estimates various types of effects with a long run pulpwood market model. The effects on electricity intensive production (CTMP, newsprint, etc.) may be drastic. However, the fall in total industrial consumption and price of pulpwood will be limited. The reduction in price is not sufficient to make pulpwood economically attractive as fuel. Own‐price elasticities of electricity demand are greater than reported elsewhere.     

Estimates of residual fibre supply and the impacts of new bioenergy capacity from a forest sector transportation model of the Canadian Prairie Provinces

Increasing interest in making use of forest sector processing residuals for renewable energy production has led to the need for careful analyses of fibre supply, and the ways in which existing forest sector firms could be affected by new sources of fibre demand. In this paper we present a forest sector transportation model of the three Canadian Prairie Provinces, and use the model to estimate residual fibre production, utilization and surpluses, as well as some potential forest sector impacts from bioenergy capacity additions. Under our base-case assumptions and using 2010 product prices, we estimate that 6.9 million cubic meters (round-wood equivalent) of processing residuals would be traded over the course of a year, with sawmills being the most significant source and pulp and paper mills being the most significant user. Approximately 33% of residuals would be used to produce bioenergy-related products (wood pellets, electricity sold to the grid, or internal electricity and power at pulp mills). Results show that some surpluses of processing residuals may be present in the existing supply chain, though the availability of these residuals is sensitive to lumber prices. At the same time, new bioenergy capacity itself may trigger higher sawmill output, making additional fibre available for both new and existing users. Roadside harvesting residuals are not an economically viable source of fibre under our base-case assumptions; however, their viability is sensitive to roadside processing costs and electricity prices.     

Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.     

Economic and Life-Cycle Analysis of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Wood-Based Bioenergy Offsets in the Central Hardwood Forest Region of United States

This study investigates the combined impact of carbon and bioenergy markets on upland oak dominated mixed hardwood forests in the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR) of the United States. A modification of the Hartman model was used for the economic analysis of carbon sequestration and using wood-based biomass for bioenergy. A life-cycle assessment was used to determine the amount of carbon sequestered due to stand growth and emitted during harvesting and decay of wood products. Two scenarios were taken, one where additionality of carbon is considered and the other where it is not. Sensitivity analysis was done with the range of carbon and bioenergy prices. The results show that net carbon payments have more impact on land expectation value (LEV) when additionality is not considered; in contrast, bioenergy payments have more impact on LEV when additionality is considered. Carbon and bioenergy prices also influenced the amount of stand level supply of forest products and carbon in both scenarios. In general, sawtimber, wood bioenergy, and carbon supply increased with an increase in carbon prices, whereas, pulpwood supply decreased. With few exceptions at higher carbon prices, bioenergy supply decreased with the increase in wood bioenergy prices, showing a backward bending supply curve in both scenarios.     

The future development of the use of wood in Russia and its potential impacts on the EU forest sector

Abstract

Several uncertainties are associated with the future development in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of some of them on the forest sectors in Russia and the European Union. In particular, we examine the impacts of increasing prices set on atmospheric CO₂ emissions and the changing investment climate in Russia on the use of forests in the EU and Russia as well as on the export of forest products from Russia to the EU. In the analysis, we use a numerical forest sector model, EUFASOM. The results suggest that a more intensive utilisation of the vast forest resources in Russia call for rapid improvements in the investment climate. Otherwise, the growth of pulp and paper production in Russia would mainly be directed at satisfying the domestic demand. It is hard to penetrate the EU markets which are suffering from excess capacity and a slow demand growth. Russia's importance as a supplier of energy wood to the EU is likely to increase, unless for instance export tariffs or tighter climate policies in Russia hinder such a development. The results demonstrate large differences in the harvesting and use of wood in the EU and Russia across the alternative future scenarios.     

Potential forest biomass resource as feedstock for bioenergy and its economic value in Indonesia

Indonesia has abundant forest biomass resource, which should not be considered as a low economic value resource. This forest biomass resource can be converted into bioenergy through various technologies and it becomes one of sources in Indonesia's energy mix. This paper focuses on forest residues generated primarily from the harvesting of natural production forests and industrial forest plantations; and wood processing mill residues. The estimated total potential forest biomass in Indonesia for bioenergy in the year 2013 was 132 PJ. About 50.4% resulted from harvesting residues and 49.6% from wood processing residues. Riau province has the largest potential bioenergy followed by Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, East Java, South Sumatera, Central Java and Jambi, which all together accounted for 87% of total potential bioenergy. Moreover, three major islands accounted for 95% of total potential bioenergy. Using a conversion return approach, the economic value of forest biomass when it was pelletized was estimated to be about US$ 5.6 per ton wood residues. The economic value of forest biomass is more sensitive to changes in the price of wood pellet than to changes in the collection and hauling cost of wood residues.     

Why stumpage prices differ between ownerships: A statistical examination of state and forest service sales in montana

Broad differences in prices exist between national forest timber and that sold by other public agencies in the western U.S. Using state vs. national forest timber sale data from Montana, the author makes a statistical inquiry into the sources of these price differences and reaches several important conclusions. National forest timber sells for a lower price than state timber because large national forest sales command much lower prices than small national forest sales and, therefore, draw down the average national forest timber price. In general, the larger national forest sales are associated with higher sale development costs and utilize more costly logging systems. More prudent national forest sale planning and development could increase national forest timber receipts substantially and aid in solving one of the national forest system's more perplexing policy dilemmas—below-cost sales.     

An integrated assessment approach to optimal forest bioenergy production for young Scots pine stands

Background: Bioenergy is re-shaping opportunities and imperatives of forest management. This study demonstrates,through a case study in Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris L.), how forest bioenergy policies affect stand management strategies.Methods: Optimization studies were examined for 15 Scots pine stands of different initial stand densities, site types, and temperature sum regions in Finland. Stand development was model ed using the Pipe Qual stand simulator coupled with the simulation-optimization tool Opti For Bioenergy to assess three forest bioenergy policies on energy wood harvest from early thinnings.Results: The optimal solutions maximizing bare land value indicate that conventional forest management regimes remain optimal for sparse stands. Energy harvests occurred only when profitable, led to lower financial returns. A forest bioenergy policy which included compulsory energy wood harvesting was optimal for denser stands. At a higher interest rate(4 %), increasing energy wood price postponed energy wood harvesting. In addition, our results show that early thinning somewhat reduced wood quality for stands in fertile sites. For less fertile sites, the changes were insignificant.Conclusions: A constraint of profitable energy wood harvest is not rational. It is optimal to carry out the first thinning with a flexible forest bioenergy policy depending on stand density.     

An economic model of international wood supply,forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion?m³, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.     

Optimal forest rotation periods: integrating timber production and carbon sequestration benefits in Pinus tabulaeformis plantations on the Loess Plateau,P.R. China

Determining the optimal rotation period was a crucial component of forest sustainable management strategies, especially under climate change. This paper had two objectives: (1) to determine the economic benefits and optimal rotation periods for timber production when coupled to carbon sequestration, as predicted by time series prediction models for Pinus tabulaeformis plantations in China; and (2) to evaluate how different carbon prices and interest rates affected optimal rotation periods using the forest land expectation value. The results suggested that time series prediction models were valuable for estimating timber volumes and carbon sequestrations based on surveys of different-aged stands. Importantly, since integrating carbon sequestrations into timber production benefits did not increase optimal rotation periods, this should promote P. tabulaeformis plantation management. In the sensitivity analysis, a higher carbon price increased the profitability of carbon sequestration and timber production, but not optimal rotation periods, though they were reduced under higher interest rates. In conclusion, incorporating both timber production and carbon sequestration benefits would sharply increase forest-based revenues, while realizing the carbon sequestration potential of P. tabulaeformis plantations. This approach was clearly useful to the development of reforestation/afforestation projects trying to mitigate climate change and also provided a theoretical basis for sustainable forest management.     

Transitioning from wild collection to forest cultivation of indigenous medicinal forest plants in eastern North America is constrained by lack of profitability

The forest flora of eastern North America includes many herbaceous plant species traded in domestic and international medicinal markets. Conservation concerns surrounding wild-collection exist and transitioning to cultivation in agroforestry systems has potential economic and ecological benefits. Costs and revenues associated with adopting forest cultivation were modeled for eight North American medicinal forest plants. Sensitivity analysis examined profit potential in relation to (1) discount rates; (2) propagation methods; (3) prices; (4) growing period; (5) production costs; and (6) yields. Results indicate that intensive husbandry of six of eight species would be unprofitable at recent (1990–2005) price levels. Exceptions are American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), and under certain circumstances (e.g., maximum historic prices, low production costs) goldenseal (Hydrastis canadensis L.). Direct marketing to consumers and retailers might improve grower profits, but is undermined by the availability of cheaper, wild-collected product. We suggest that the North American medicinal plant industry could play a key role in facilitating any transition from wild to cultivated product, perhaps through development of a certification and labeling program that brands “forest cultivated” products. This could generate price premiums, to be passed along to growers, but must be accompanied by aggressive consumer education. A “forest cultivated” certification and labeling program has potential to benefit industry and consumers if assurances regarding product identity and quality are a central feature. Plant species that are not viable candidates for commercial cultivation due to limited consumer demand (i.e., species with “shallow,” erratic markets) are best addressed through proactive government and industry initiatives involving targeted harvester education programs.     

Cost of turning forest residue bioenergy to carbon neutral

Harvesting branches, unmerchantable tree tops and stumps for bioenergy reduces the carbon stock and the sink capacity of forest. We analyzed forest management changes that are financially viable for a forest owner to compensate for carbon loss resulting from the forest harvest residue extraction, and thus lead to truly carbon-neutral forest bioenergy. The management options studied included forest fertilization, elongated rotation periods, varying the type of forest residues extracted, and leaving high stumps. The costs of carbon loss compensation varied widely from 5 to 4000 € ha^− 1 between the management options. The lowest costs resulted from harvesting quickly decomposing branches combined with low levels of fertilization. Harvesting all residues and applying intensive fertilization regimes or postponing final felling generated the highest costs. A requirement for fast carbon loss compensation increased the costs. The results indicated that changes in the forest management improve the carbon benefits of forest bioenergy, and some of these changes are inexpensive for the forest owner. The optimization results suggested that the longer time period was allowed for the carbon loss compensation, the fewer cost-effective silvicultural measures existed in the optimal combination of management regimes for the compensation.     

Future quantities and spatial distribution of harvesting residue and dead wood from natural disturbances in Canada

Interest in the use of bioenergy is increasing because of the need to mitigate climate change, the increasing costs and finite supply of fossil fuels, and the declining price of lumber and paper. Sound bioenergy policies must be informed by accurate estimates of potential feedstock production, rights to the production, social values and economics. Two of the main sources of bioenergy feedstock from forests are (i) harvesting residue and (ii) dead wood resulting from natural disturbances (i.e. standing dead timber). We modeled the production of bioenergy feedstock from these two sources from 2005 to 2020 for Canada's managed forest south of 60° N so that this information can be used in provincial and national strategic planning. Published estimates of harvesting residue vary widely, and our objective was to provide more precise estimates based on new forest inventory data and regional modeling. Natural disturbances result in very large quantities of dead wood on the landscape, but estimates of future stocks and annual production have not previously been made. Our estimates included a 50% discount factor to net-down theoretically available quantities to a more realistic estimate of potential ecologically sustainable bioenergy feedstock. The total future annual production averaged 51 ± 17 Tg year⁻¹ from natural disturbances and 20 ± 0.6 Tg year⁻¹ from clearcut harvesting residues. Harvesting residue for the area logged varied spatially from a low of 1.0 ± 0.77 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ to a high of 6.7 ± 0.1 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. Dead wood production due to insects was forecast to peak in the Montane Cordillera of British Columbia (BC) at 16.7 Tg year⁻¹ due to the current mountain pine beetle outbreak. Total dead wood production due to fire was highest in the western portion of the boreal forest (3.6 Tg year⁻¹ in the Boreal Shield of Saskatchewan), in part due to the high frequency of fires in these ecosystems and the large area of western boreal forest, but the highest density production was in BC: >9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ in the burned area. Our results showed that the dead wood stocks of 331 Tg oven-dry matter potentially available for bioenergy in 2020 are much smaller than the 3100 ± 84 Tg of dead wood stocks estimated based on ecosystem dynamics. While bioenergy use will accelerate the release of greenhouse gases compared to on-site decay, the energy is renewable and can be used as a substitute for fossil fuels. The net benefit to the atmosphere of forest bioenergy use is affected by many factors, and future research should further assess which sustainable wood-based bioenergy strategies yield the greatest net greenhouse gas benefits over the different time scales needed for post-disturbance forest recovery.     

Logistics of supplying biomass from a mountain pine beetle-infested forest to a power plant in British Columbia

Abstract

The search for alternative energy sources has increased the interest in forest biomass. During the past few years, the severe infestation of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) within the forests of interior British Columbia (BC) has led to huge volumes of dead wood that exceed the capacity of the lumber industry. One way to make the most value of the surplus wood is to use it as the feedstock for bioenergy. The high costs associated with harvest and transport, and uncertainty in supply logistics are issues related to forest biomass utilization. This paper presents the development of a forest biomass supply logistics simulation model and its application to a case of supplying MPB-killed biomass from Quesnel timber supply area (one of the most infested areas in the interior BC) to a potential 300 MW power plant adjacent to the city of Quesnel. It provides values of quantity, cost and moisture content of biomass which are important factors in feasibility study of bioenergy projects. In the case of a conventional harvesting system, the biomass recovered from roadside residues in 1 year will meet only about 30% of the annual demand of the power plant with an estimated delivered cost of Can $45 per oven-dry tonne of woodchips. Sensitivity analyses were also performed.     

Carbon balance of forest stands,wood products and their utilization in South Korea

Forests provide wood products and feedstock for bioenergy and bio-based products that can mitigate climate change by reducing carbon emissions. In order to assess the effects of forest products on reducing carbon emissions, we analyzed the carbon balance for individual carbon pools across the forest supply chain over a long period of time. We simulated particular forest supply chain activities pertaining to even-aged management of pine stands in South Korea to demonstrate our methods. Two different rotation scenarios (i.e., 40 and 70 years) were assessed over the 280-year time horizon in terms of temporal changes in carbon stock in each carbon pool along the supply chain, carbon transfer between carbon pools, substitution effects, and delayed carbon release by wood products. We found that the average carbon stock level was higher for the 70-year rotation scenario, but the total amount of gain in carbon was higher for the 40-year rotation at the end of the time horizon. This study confirms that forest products and energy feedstock can both reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon storage. However, the complexity of carbon accounting along the supply chain warrants a thorough evaluation from diverse perspectives when it is used to assess forest carbon management options.     

Assessing forest understory biomass in northwest Florida (USA) and its potential to meet the state energy needs

A stratified random sampling approach was employed to quantify total biomass across prevalent non-commercial forest understory species found in six counties of northwest Florida, USA. The moisture content (wet basis) and calorific values of these species were also measured. Total green biomass from forest understory species was estimated to be around 12 million metric tons, mostly comprised of Cliftonia monophylla (titi, buckwheat tree) and Cyrilla racemiflora (white titi, swamp titi). This understory forest biomass would be sufficient to generate about 28.8 million GJ of electricity or 1589.25 million liters of ethanol. A need was identified to determine the inventory of forest understory biomass at the state level and assess the overall sustainability of utilizing forest understory biomass for bioenergy.     

Economics of intercropping loblolly pine and switchgrass for bioenergy markets in the southeastern United States

The main objective of this study was to assess the economics of alley cropping of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) in the southern United States. Assuming a price range of switchgrass between $15 and $50?Mg^?1 and yield of 12?Mg?ha^?1 year^?1, we investigated the effect of switchgrass production on the optimal forest management for loblolly pine stands under different stumpage prices. We considered the following potential scenarios: no competition between species for resources; reduced loblolly pine productivity due to competition with switchgrass; and reduced productivity of both species due to competition for nutrients, water and light. Findings also suggested that the optimal system would depend on the competitive interactions between switchgrass and loblolly pine crops, and the expected prices for each crop. Loblolly pine monoculture would be the most profitable option for landowners compared to intercropping systems with switchgrass below $30?Mg^?1. However, when switchgrass prices are ??$30?Mg^?1, landowners would be financially better off adopting intercropping if competitive interaction between crops were minimal. In order to realize higher economic returns for intercropping system, forest landowners must make some efforts in order to diminish the decline of productivity.     

论我国林业生物质能源林培育与发展

能源危机和生态环境压力使世界发达国家纷纷转向发展和利用生物质能源,发展生物质能产业也是我国缓解能源供应压力和解决环境问题的途径之一。林业生物质能资源培育是一项系统工程,要从统筹资源培育和产业发展、进行现状及发展潜力调查评价、制定资源培育及产业发展总体规划、加强科技和加强优惠财税政策等方面做好工作;同时,处理好产业与生态、森林多目标培育的关系,处理好国家、企业和能源林经营者三者之间的关系,以促进我国林业生物质能产业健康快速发展。     

Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.     

Sustainable forest management as an approach to regional development in the Russian Federation: State and trends in Kovdozersky Model Forest in the Barents region

Abstract

The Russian forest sector is under transformation, and the Model Forest (MF) concept is used as an innovative approach to regional sustainable development based on forest goods, ecosystem services and values. This study evaluates the development of the MF concept in north-west Russia's Barents region, using Kovdozersky MF in Murmansk region as a case study. This report (1) describe the main historical phases of forest use, (2) summarizes the state and trends of the economic, ecological and sociocultural situation, (3) explores reasons for establishing the MF, and (4) evaluates the main steps towards implementation of the MF concept. Qualitative and quantitative methods were applied. Actors were identified and interviewed to understand the process of MF development. Statistic data were collected and analyzed. The main goal of this MF is to support development through participatory collaboration regarding (1) balancing needs and interests among actors and stakeholders, (2) implementation of sustainable forest management, (3) encouraging the development of ecotourism and bioenergy production in the area, and (4) increasing public awareness with respect to sustainable forest management. Potential challenges for the MF partnership include: (1) domination by partners from the traditional forest sector, with their potentially more narrow needs and interests in the partnership development, and (2) disparity in sharing responsibilities and power between regional and local levels in MF management.