Determinants of Swedish pulpwood imports

Pulpwood is imported to Sweden as a result of price discrimination and the monopsonistic features of the domestic pulpwood market. To investigate the determinants of Swedish pulpwood imports, econometric models were developed for the three imported assortments: pine, spruce, and non‐coniferous pulpwood. All prices used in the models were relative to the price of pulpwood imports. The study shows that the relative price of pulpwood (e.g. price of standing timber for sale/price of pulpwood imports) is not a significant determinant of pulpwood imports; it has the wrong sign for spruce pulpwood. This unexpected finding may have been a result of the impossibility of categorizing the price for standing timber according to pulpwood assortments. The relative export price of pulp, however, was found to be a significant determinant of spruce pulpwood imports, although not of pine and non‐coniferous pulpwood. An important determinant is the relative prices of inputs other than pulpwood in pulp production. The study also shows that pulpwood imports respond to price signals with a 1 yr lag, indicating inertia in trade.     

Price dynamics in the Russian–Finnish roundwood trade

Abstract

This study examines price dynamics in roundwood exports from Russia to Finland, the largest international roundwood trade flow within Europe. The analysis covers six main timber assortments; sawlog and pulpwood dimensions of pine, spruce and birch. The study period, starting from the devaluation of the rouble in August 1998, was characterized by a drastic increase in the volumes of Russian roundwood imported into Finland, and a coinciding structural change in the timber assortment distribution of the Finnish roundwood imports. A basic hypothesis of economic theory, the law of one price, was tested by using quarterly time series and methods of cointegration analysis. According to the cointegration tests, the prices of Finnish and Russian spruce sawlogs have moved closely together. Furthermore, the changes in the prices of spruce sawlogs in the Finnish roundwood market are reflected in the Russian prices and not vice versa. Regarding other timber assortments, price co-movement and consequent market integration was not detected.     

Structural changes in sawlog and pulpwood markets in Finland

This paper presents a short‐term econometric model for the sawlog and pulpwood markets in Finland. More specifically, the effects of structural changes in the market on the success of short‐term market modelling are investigated. Wood prices and quantities traded are stationary. Therefore, valid statistical inference using the levels of these variables is possible. Pulpwood prices were found to be directly proportional to sawlog prices during the study period, and the cross‐price effects were not statistically significant. The results indicated that the price sensitivity of wood supply in Finland increased during the 1980s and early 1990s. Nationwide collective price agreements were found to have increased the level of pulpwood supply and demand from private forests, but to have had no effect on either supply of or demand for sawlogs. Due to a structural change in the 1970s, the models estimated for the whole period cannot be used for short‐term forecasting in the 1990s. Higher‐than‐annual frequency data should be used in developing accurate short‐term forecasting models.     

Testing roundwood market efficiency using a multivariate cointegration estimator

This study develops a framework for testing roundwood market efficiency. The analysis is carried out on the Norwegian sawlog market. Using Johansen's multivariate cointegration estimator three systems were estimated: (i) domestic, imported and exported sawlogs; (ii) domestic pulpwood and sawlogs; and (iii) lumber exports/imports and domestic sawlogs. Cointegrating relations were found in all three systems, indicating the presence of a common stochastic trend within each model. The Law of One Price and weak exogeneity were tested on all systems. The Swedish sawlog market was found to impact price formation in the Norwegian market. It is concluded that the Norwegian sawlog market is functioning adequately.     

Dynamics of Integration between Chinese and International Waste Paper Markets

ABSTRACT

China is the largest importer of waste paper in the world and is highly dependent on the international market. Thus, the relationship between Chinese and international waste paper markets affects the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. This study examined the dynamic relationship between the two markets and the impact of newly implemented policies on both markets. We used unit root tests, cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM) and frequency-domain Granger causality test to investigate the integration between Chinese and international waste paper markets and identify which of the two markets is the price leader. The results revealed that the two markets were integrated after controlling for structural breaks, and the Chinese market acted as the price leader. Since the supply of waste paper and wood pulp is insufficient in China to meet the fiber demand of the paper industry, waste paper import restrictions have significantly affected the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. Therefore, the Chinese government should fully consider the benefit of market integration and make full use of international waste paper resources to satisfy the large domestic demand for paper products.     

Models for Assessing Timber Grade Distribution and Economic Value of Standing Birch Trees

In order to obtain a more precise prediction of the distribution of each timber grade or log grade with regard to the volume of birch (Betula pendula Roth., B. pubescens Ehrh.) in models for long-term planning, ordered probit models were developed. These models were developed by using data from three mixed birch and Norway spruce stands in Norway. The data consisted of 168 stems. In Norway, three ordinary birch saw log grades are commonly used, with pulpwood as a fourth grade. In this study, these four grades were applied in addition to waste timber, which was treated as a fifth grade. The developed models showed that the grade distribution of birch trees of mixed birch and spruce stands was highly correlated with tree height (p<0.01) and height to first visible dry branch (p=0.081). The statistical significance of both models was good (p<0.0001), as measured by log likelihood test statistics. Classifying the 168 stems by saw timber or pulpwood in butt log led to greatly improved estimates (p<0.01). The developed models would allow the incorporation of timber grade in stand simulators, enabling more precise predictions regarding the economic implications of alternative management strategies for birch trees.     

Price integration for domestic and imported sawlogs and pulpwood in Finland: an update

This paper provides an analysis on the integration of prices for imported coniferous pulpwood and sawlogs, and respective domestic stumpage prices in the Finnish wood market. Eight real price series were investigated during 2002–2014 using monthly observations. The bounds testing approach by Pesaran et al. [(2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Econom. 16: 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616], indicates there are long-run relationships between prices of domestic and imported wood. For more detailed information, the vector error correction model (VECM) approach was used. Estimation of a system with all eight prices with interpretable results did not succeed; therefore, we estimated models for prices of sawlogs and for pulpwood separately. For sawlogs, two co-integrating vectors, one for pine and one for spruce, were found. For pulpwood prices, one co-integrating vector was identified. The estimated VECMs confirm the results of bounds testing approach, suggesting that causation in the Finnish wood market runs from domestic prices to prices of imported wood. We conclude that prices of domestic and imported coniferous logs and pulpwood are closely connected. The question of full integration remains open, as border prices and stumpage prices by definition differ, at least, by logging and transportation costs.     

Optimal Rotation Age of Larix kaempferi Pulpwood Plantation by Real Options Approach

The differentiation process including somatic embryogenesis in different Ginkgo explants in vitro culture were studied by cytological observation.The results are as follows:1) two complete cotyledons and a embryo bud were observed in mature embryos and several secretory acavitives appeared in maturation region of embryo buds,hypocotyls,cotyledons and radicles after culturing 20 days;two incomplete cotyledons and a embryo bud primordia were found in large cotyledon embryos.The proembryo of two cells,four cells, multi-cellular,and globular embroy were developed from the callus of the small cotyledon embryos.2) The differentiation of cotyledon explants started from epidermal cells,and gradually formed meristematic cell mass in the cortical cells,and eventually adventitious buds were observed.3) The adventitious roots of Ginkgo originated in the cells at the cross of vascular cambium and vascular rays. 4) The type of rooting belongs to induction type by root primordium.The formed adventitious roots were observed after 20 days.     

Identifying the inter-market relationships of forest products in the Pacific Northwest with cointegration and causality tests

We identify various inter-market relationships of forest products using cointegration and causality tests together. Of the six Douglas fir domestic sawlog, export sawlog, and lumber markets in the Pacific Northwest, we find that the two log markets and the two lumber markets are integrated, respectively. However, the two export log markets are not, nor is any cross-grade combination. In conjunction with cointegration restrictions, our causality tests demonstrate that export and lumber prices lead the movement of domestic sawlog prices; and similarly, the movements of domestic lumber prices follow the movements of export log prices. A close examination further reveals that export log prices for Region 1 lead the price formation process in all the lumber markets and log markets. We believe that these results have significant implications for understanding and thus dealing with forest products market behavior and price forecasting.     

Adaptive tree bucking using group-guiding of harvesters: A simulation approach

Abstract

The objective of this study was to test harvester group-guiding methods by comparing how the total log output distribution of independent harvesters differs from the total log output distribution of group-guided harvesters. In this simulation study four harvesters worked in their own stands in the same region for an identical target, given by a sawmill. Group-guiding was done by utilizing other harvesters’ bucking outcomes to fulfil the target log distribution better. Harvesters were combined to form a group in an adapting phase where a new price list was formed. For group-guiding, four different price list adapting methods were developed. There were five different simulations: four with adaptation and one reference simulation without adaptation. Apportionment degree and log/pulpwood proportions were calculated to compare the difference between the methods and reference simulation. With group-guiding, by adapting the price list harvesters reached the target distribution better than working independently. The best group-guiding method fulfilled the target distribution almost 9% better than independently working harvesters. However, the pulpwood proportion increased as a result of using the group-guided method.     

The effects of subsidized regeneration measures on timber supply,once again

Using an econometric model of the sawtimber and pulpwood market in price region 1 (the northern part of Sweden), it is considered whether the subsidies paid to regeneration costs in this region have had any measurable effect on short‐run wood supply. The analysis is a continuation of the work presented by Brännlund et al. (1985 b), in which it was claimed that subsidies have had a non‐positive effect on short‐run supply. A more elaborated test is used in this study. The test is based on the use of a reference model which, in this case, consists of an econometric model for the whole country of Sweden. The results from the test cannot be used to reject the conclusion that subsidies have had a non‐positive effect on short‐run wood supply.     

Marketing constraints for Eucalyptus from farm lands in India

During the early eighties farmers in north-west India planted Eucalyptus on a massive scale for sale as poles and pulpwood. However, after 1986 farmers in this region have almost stopped growing Eucalyptus, as their experience with its marketing was not a happy one. The pole market got saturated, paper mills did not pay a remunerative price, and fuelwood prices were low and uneconomical. More important, because of legal restrictions on the transport and sale of wood, and other institutional factors, the gap in the farmgate price and the consumer price remained very wide. Wood markets have, on the whole, exploited the farmers, rather than helped them. Due to this, the short period of flirtation with tree crops seems to be over for at least resident farmers in those very areas in north-west India where they had so enthusiastically planted Eucalyptus in the early 1980s.Abbreviations BDO Block Development Officer - Headloaders poor people who collect firewood on their heads from forest lands for consumption and sale - m ha million hectares - Rs Indian Rupee 16 Rs = 1 US Dollar in 1989 - panchayat elected village organisation - pradhan village chief On study leave from the Government of India to the Oxford Forestry Institute, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3RB, U.K. Present address: 17 Ponnappa Road, Allahabad 211001, India     

中美贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响

中美贸易摩擦是中美经济关系中的重要问题。2018年中美贸易摩擦爆发后,双边经贸关系曲折不断,木质林产品贸易面临极大考验。文中在梳理2015—2020年中美双边木质林产品贸易数据的基础上,分析贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响。结果显示,中美贸易摩擦对双边贸易规模具有较大影响,贸易总额、进口额和出口额均大幅下降;木家具和人造板等木质林产品贸易受到较大冲击,双方短期内均难以找到替代市场;中国从美国进口原木和锯材大幅下降,但中国木材供应和木材安全未受到威胁。未来,建议从增加国内木材供应、拓展替代市场、优化林业产业结构、建立国际国内双循环的林产品市场方面积极应对贸易摩擦。     

Investment Behaviour in the European Pulp and Paper Industry

This study analysed the location of investments in the European pulp and paper industry. Three continuous investment models were estimated allowing for fixed as well as random effects using data for 10 European countries over the period 1978-1995. The results indicated that labour wages, market size and agglomeration effects were the most important determinants of investment levels. The impacts of raw material prices were somewhat ambiguous. However, in the long run wastepaper availability seems to matter in the sense of attracting investments. A comparison of the economic significance of changes in the costs of input factors with changes in the market size indicated that proximity to output markets had a larger impact on the decision to invest than proximity to abundant raw materials or cheap access to electricity and labour. Furthermore, the agglomeration coefficient indicated that the power of sunk costs is important.     

Improved ecoeffectiveness of interior hardwood products in the house-building industry as a way to promote sustainable forestry

Abstract

Sawn hardwood is required by the market to be homogeneous, even in texture and colour, but the products produced by Swedish hardwood sawmills exhibit a wide variation in characteristics. This makes it difficult for hardwood sawmills to find profitable markets for all their products. By developing new products with other properties for the building industry it may be possible to utilize hardwood more efficiently and increase the prices. This would result in higher ecoeffectiveness (defined as value in relation to environmental impact) of the forest-related business system by giving an incentive to grow deciduous forests, which leads to richer biological diversity. Diversity is fundamental to achieving sustainable forestry. At the same time, other less ecoefficient materials in buildings may be replaced. Exploring the requirements of the customers is essential before developing new products, in order to maximize the value of a product. In this study, the requirements of interior hardwood products in the Swedish house-building industry were studied in interviews and through questionnaires. The most important requirements, ranked higher than price, are delivery on time, shape stability, packaged products, rapid delivery and accurate moisture content. The results make it possible to focus on critical factors to gain market shares for hardwood as an ecoeffective building material.     

The consequences for the forest sector of nuclear power discontinuation in Sweden

Electricity prices in Sweden will most probably double, or more, during the next 10 to 15 years as a result of the decision to discontinue nuclear power production. This will substantially change the comparative advantage of all forest‐based product industries, some to the worse, some to the better. Roundwood prices and fellings will be affected and possibly the competitive position of wood‐based energy production. This paper estimates various types of effects with a long run pulpwood market model. The effects on electricity intensive production (CTMP, newsprint, etc.) may be drastic. However, the fall in total industrial consumption and price of pulpwood will be limited. The reduction in price is not sufficient to make pulpwood economically attractive as fuel. Own‐price elasticities of electricity demand are greater than reported elsewhere.     

Sorption properties of torrefied wood and charcoal

Abstract

Pre-treating biomass by torrefaction is assumed to improve the material's storage properties because of reducing hydrophilicity. In order to assess the effect of sorption on storage properties, the adsorption of water vapour and capillary absorption of liquid water in torrefied and charred spruce and birch were studied. In addition, the chemical changes were evaluated through Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. Adsorption decreased notably as severity of treatment increased, as was expected due to degradation of the wood constituents, namely hemicelluloses and amorphous cellulose. Capillary absorption increased with increasing severity in spruce samples while birch showed less change, but the maximum volume for absorption increased with both species. FT-IR results showed an increase in aromatic structures that have a role in forming crystalline structures, possibly leading to increased porosity. Torrefied and charred material should not be stored outside, as liquid water absorbs readily into the material, turning it into a suitable substrate for fungi.     

The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth,timber supply,and technological trends

A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.     

Stochastic simulation of forest fuel sourcing models under risk

Abstract

Climate change effects such as storms and droughts are leading to increased risk of forest damage in central Europe. The aim of this paper was to evaluate forest fuel sourcing models including climate change-induced risks on forest fuel supply. Stochastic risk events, such as storms and bark beetle infestations, were modelled by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, and the economic performance was evaluated for two fuel-sourcing models supplying a single combined heat and power plant (CHP). The first sourcing model depicted a common sourcing model for Austrian CHPs, where only forest chips provided by long- and short-term suppliers were stored. The second sourcing model additionally enabled the storage of salvaged pulpwood to supply forest fuel from the plant's own inventory during shortage periods. Simulation results showed that storing salvage pulpwood as feedstock considerably reduced supply chain risks and resulted in lower procurement costs (1–3% less than normal delivered cost without storing salvaged pulpwood).     

Impact of site and provenance on economic return in Nordmann fir Christmas tree production

Abstract

The economic potential of 35 seed lots from Danish landraces of Nordmann fir [Abies nordmanniana (Stev.) Spach.] and seven imported provenances were evaluated for high-value Christmas tree production over a full rotation at six locations in Denmark. Naturally grown Christmas trees were evaluated and no leader length control or trimming of the side branches was allowed, but only simple cutting of double terminal leaders. Seed source as well as site strongly affected the economic revenue. Average net sales price per planted tree ranged over sites from €2.43 to €6.64, and among provenances from €1.38 to €7.06 with an average of €4.95. Changes in prices and grading as seen under cycling market conditions seemed not to affect the economic ranking of the better part of the provenances, whereas discounting the net sales income caused moderate rank changes, reflecting differences in rotation time. Limited seed source by site interactions were present and mainly caused by the slowest growing sources. Among the Danish domesticated seed sources of mostly unknown origin several were as suitable as the tested imported sources. In general, the Danish sources were faster growing than imports, although very large variation was present.