A general equilibrium analysis of the economic aspects of the imposition of an export tax on the plywood sector in Indonesia

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are extensively used to simulate the economic impact of forest policies. In this study, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to assess the impact of an export tax ranging from 5 to 20% on the plywood sector to the Indonesian economy. The indonesian economy is aggregated into 5 sectors: 2 sectors are related to forest,i.e., (1) log, and (2) plywood. The other three sectors are not related to forest,i.e., (3) non-wood manufacturing, (4) agriculture, quarrying, and services, and (5) construction. The simulation results show that an export tax on the plywood processing sector is negatively correlated with real GDP and labor demand in log and plywood sectors, but is positively correlated with total labor demand, government revenue, income distribution, wood resources and social welfare. Reduction in labor demand by log and plywood sectors, due to a plywood export tax, can be absorbed in other sectors. The simulated policy of an export tax on plywood can reserve trees in production forests for future use.     

Development of wood procurement in Northwest Russia: round wood balance and unreported flows

This paper analyses industrial round wood flows into, within, and out of Northwest regions of Russia. We examine sawlogs, pulpwood, and fuelwood used for industrial purposes obtained from logging, and chips obtained from the wood-processing industry. We attempt to clarify different recent trends in wood harvesting, industrial round wood export, and forest industries development that have an influence on unreported wood in Russia. Our method, which uses wood balance diagrams, provides an interpretation of data from different Russian sources in order to offer better transparency regarding wood flows from forests to mills. It also helps to explain the apparent imbalance between round wood supply and demand and it helps one to assess the possible share of unreported industrial round wood production in Northwest Russia. Based on annual forest-related statistical data available from the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Committee of Statistics, and the Russian Federation’s Customs Department, unreported round wood flows can be estimated to be 23% of the total industrial round wood production, or approximately 9 million m³ u.b. per year. Unreported round wood flows are more common in export oriented regions that have poorly developed forest industries.

Ecologically Sustainable Land Use Planning in the Russian Lake Baikal Region

Abstract

Efforts at achieving sustainable forest management throughout the world often appear to pit global economic and development interests against those who seek preservation and environmental protection of the Faith's resources. Such conflicts, where they do arise, are often unmindful of the full range of land use parameters which must be taken into account when developing sustainable forest models on a regional, if not subconlinenlal scale the scale on which many multinational corporate entities now base their business planning. In fact, sustainable forest resource planning in the global marketplace must be integrated with regional sustainable land use, cultural, ecosystem and economic planning if the myriad forest attributes are to be maintained for future generations. The proposed paper would describe comprehensive sustainable land use planning being implemented in the Lake Baikal region of south central Siberia, Russia, which incorporates the full range of forest utilization from wild forest preserves to ecologically sustainable forest management for wood products. This paper describes similar projects being undertaken by Ecologically Sustainable Development, Inc. (ESD) in Mongolia, the Altai region of Russia, the Ussuri River Basin of Far Eastern Russia and China. Nicaragua and British Columbia, finally, the authors make recommendations key to achieving sustainable forest policy on the federal, state, regional and local levels.     

Determinants of Vietnam’s wood products trade: application of the gravity model

ABSTRACT

This study applied a gravity model estimation using panel data in order to analyze the impact of the determinants of Vietnam’s wood products trade from 2001 to 2016.The gravity estimates imply the importance of size of the economies, distance, level of openness of the economy, population, forest resource endowments of Vietnam’s trade partners, Vietnam’s logging restrictions policy, common border, free trade agreement, and exchange rates as determinants of Vietnam’s wood products trade. These variables were found to have different effects on the export and import of wood products. Vietnam’s access to the WTO and APEC did not help either its imports or exports in wood products. The results of this study also indicate that the Government of Vietnam needs to implement policies to increase investment in the wood processing industry, develop high quality wood materials from domestic plantations, and take advantage of trade preferences from new free trade agreements in order to promote wood product trade. The results of this study have implications for trade policy, resource-based economic development, and Vietnam’s forest resource conservation.     

21世纪中国木材产品研究

木材是世界上用途最广泛的原料之一。木材可更新,对环境有益,美观,强重比高,加工过程中能耗低。生产和使用木材可以减少二氧化碳的释放。随着世界经济的发展和人口的增长,未来对木材和木制产品的需求也必将增长。中国木材工业的未来很大程度上将有赖于有效管理林地木材的持续供应。中国一些地区的有利气候条件、广阔的地域和大量的人力为将来保证木材供应提供了充裕的条件。因此,要对未来的木材研究优先领域进行探讨,以支持21世纪中国木材工业的可持续发展。     

Elasticity of import demand for wood pellets by the European Union

Import demand for wood pellets by the European Union (EU) was investigated using a source-differentiated non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with monthly data from 2009 to 2015. Our research provides the first complete set of expenditure, price and cross-price elasticities for this rapidly expanding forest product market. Expenditure elasticities reveal that wood pellets from the United States have the most to gain from an expansion in EU expenditures, followed by Canada, while Russia has the least to gain. We attribute this result to differences in the quality, reliability and sustainability of wood pellet supply between the countries. The degree of substitution among the major suppliers was also assessed through cross-price elasticities.     

Carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland under different cutting and climate scenarios

In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003–2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to different rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO₂). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO₂) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO₂) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO₂) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO₂) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.     

Possibilities for energy wood procurement in north-west Russia: Assessment of energy wood resources in the Leningrad region

Abstract

Methodology to assess the potential for energy wood procurement in Russia is described in this article and applied to the Leningrad region. Wood from thinnings, logging residues, non-industrial roundwood and residues from sawmilling are considered as sources for energy production. Energy wood available in the region, based on the 2004 actual cut, is approximately 4 million m³. Nearly 86% of this is non-industrial roundwood and felling residues, and 14% is by-products from sawmilling. Almost two-thirds of the non-industrial roundwood and felling residues are in cutting areas and one-third is in central processing yards. Deciduous tree species (birch and aspen) dominate in energy wood, representing about 65% of the total amount of felling residues and non-industrial wood. It is possible to intensify utilization of forest resources and thereby also to increase the use of wood in energy production. The total amount could be 54% higher if the allowable cut was fully utilized and 124% higher if thinnings were also utilized completely. There are, however, significant intraregional differences, as the current rate of utilization of forest resources varies in the region.     

European trade and projections in forest-based feed-stocks

The purpose of this study is to estimate the intra EU trade value of wood products and examine the factors affecting the trade flow. A gravity model is used to estimate the factors affecting the trade flow. The study uses a panel data set, with fixed effects, on trade in two forest products between 28 EU member countries over the period 2005–2014. The forest products are woodchips and particles (HS4401) and industrial roundwood (HS4403). For HS4401, the result suggests that the GDP of both the exporting and importing countries affect the trade flow positively (0.64 and 0.36, respectively). For HS4403, the GDP of the exporting countries affect have a negative effect (?0.69), while the GDP of the importing countries have a positive effect (0.80). In a second step, the estimated parameters are used to forecast the trade up until year 2030. The forecast suggests an increase in the trade by 47 per cent. This suggests an improved efficiency in reaching the EU climate and energy targets. That is, the trade in biofuels is expected to increase due to economic growth, which in turn works towards achieving the renewable and CO₂ emission targets in Europe.     

Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use

In this study we investigate the implications of reaching the 2 °C climate target for global woody biomass use by applying the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) and the recently published SSP-RCP scenario calculations. We show that the higher biomass demand for energy needed to reach the 2 °C target can be achieved without significant distortions to woody biomass material use and that it can even benefit certain forest industries and regions. This is because the higher woody biomass use for energy increases the demand for forest industry by-products, which makes forest industry final products production more profitable and compensates for the cost effect of increased competition over raw materials. The higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit sawnwood, plywood and chemical pulp production, which provide large amounts of by-products, and to inhibit fiberboard and mechanical pulp production, which provide small amounts of by-products. At the regional level, the higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit material production in regions, which use little roundwood for energy (Russia, North-America and EU28), and to inhibit material production in regions, which use large amounts of roundwood for energy (Asia, Africa and South-America). Even if the 2 °C target increases harvest volumes in the tropical regions significantly compared to the non-mitigation scenario, harvest volumes remain in these regions at a relatively low level compared to the harvest potential.     

我国人造板行业发展现状、前景与挑战

我国经济V型反转态势已基本确立,经济增速持续回升,国内需求稳步走高,出口贸易改善。人造板及其制品的需求亦稳步回升,展示出巨大的市场潜力。随着大量私募股权投资基金的资金进入,企业并购重组加速,将掀起新一轮人造板投资高潮,相关企业和业内人士也面临如何适应新形势,把握新机遇,转变观念,顺势而为的新挑战。     

俄乌地缘政治冲突对全球针叶材供需格局的影响

文中构建涵盖19个经济体的全球针叶材区域价格均衡模型,模拟分析俄乌冲突引发的全球针叶材供需格局变化与调整。结果表明,俄乌冲突导致显著的贸易转移效应,俄罗斯和白俄罗斯2国对欧盟针叶材出口合计减少900万m3,对中国、埃及、土耳其出口合计增加543万m3;乌克兰对欧盟出口增加255万m3,对中国、土耳其出口则合计减少183万m3。俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的中国市场份额将分别达到29%和3%。俄白2国退出欧盟市场造成6%的供应空缺,而乌克兰可以填补其中的一半。俄乌冲突造成木材贸易出超方和入超方利益分化,全球整体福利受损,俄罗斯福利下降约1亿美元,中国、美国、日本等木材贸易赤字方分别减少4 300万美元、2 400万美元、600万美元,加拿大、欧盟、新西兰等木材贸易盈余方分别增加2 700万美元、2 200万美元、1 300万美元,全球总福利下降2亿美元。     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments in Latin American Forestry and Forest Industry

ABSTRACT

The paper examines the relationships between the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the forestry and forest products industry and host-country-specific factors that affect the spatial distribution of FDI. Data on Brazil and Chile are used to analyze the impact of market size, roundwood supply, and exports on FDI. The results indicate that the main motivation for FDI is market-seeking and resource-seeking, highlighting the role of domestic demand and sufficient supply of roundwood in multinational forestry companies' investment decisions. The results further imply that governments can use policies related to these factors to attract foreign investment into the forest sector in Brazil and Chile.     

基于产业内贸易视角的中俄木质林产品贸易现状分析

文中首先从贸易规模和贸易结构2个方面分析中国与俄罗斯两国间木质林产品贸易现状, 然后运用产业内贸易GL指数和Bruelhart边际产业内贸易指数对1994—2013年20年间中俄两国不同种类木质林产品和整体木质林产品产业内贸易发展水平进行实证分析, 最后对两国间木质林产品产业内贸易类型进行划分和测算.结果表明, 尽管中俄木质林产品贸易规模在不断扩大, 但产业内贸易水平总体偏低, 贸易方式仍以产业间贸易为主, 中俄木质林产品贸易呈现出较强的互补性.     

Caution needed with the EU forest plantation strategy for offsetting carbon emissions

As part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and under its Green Deal, the EU proposes to strongly rely on forests for offsetting its carbon footprint. However, planting trees should be avoided in wildfire prone and drought prone habitats, which are expanding significantly as climate warms across Europe. In favorable habitats, tree planting remains a controversial solution and the risk of using inappropriate material is high in the absence of long-term planning, unfortunately typical of the forest seed and nursery sector. The EU forest tree planting strategy should pay close attention to local land-use issues, to within- and among-species genetic diversity and should adopt relevant, pluri-annual funding schemes and planting contracts rather than letting market opportunities govern the future of forest tree plantations.

     

Growth responses of West-Mediterranean Pinus nigra to climate change are modulated by competition and productivity: Past trends and future perspectives

Positive and negative effects of climate change on forest growth have been observed in different parts of the world. However, much is still unknown about how forest structure and productivity might affect climate-growth relationships in the future. We examined the effects of climate, site quality, and competition on tree basal area growth of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) between 1964 and 2005 in 21 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. We used a new approach to simultaneously account for climate-growth relationships, inter-annual growth variability, and stand structural changes, by fitting a linear mixed effects model (LMEM) for basal area increments (BAI) using climate data, tree-ring chronologies, and repeated forest inventory data. This approach showed the potential to improve our understanding of climate effects on tree growth and to include climate in empirical forest growth models. We used the LMEM to make projections of BAI growth under two CO₂ emission scenarios and two global circulation models (GCM). The main climate drivers for growth were precipitation from previous autumn to summer and winter temperature with a positive effect, and temperature in spring-summer which had a negative effect. Tree response to climate was modulated by stand conditions, tree competition, and productivity. The more productive stands showed greater ability to either maintain or increase growth at warmer spring-summer temperatures under different levels of autumn-summer precipitation. Growth projections showed important regional differences. In general, growth under future climate is predicted to decrease although moderate growth increases might be expected in the northern region for highly and moderately productive stands.     

The realisable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European Union

Forests are important for providing wood for products and energy and the demand for wood is expected to increase. Our aim was to estimate the potential supply of woody biomass for all uses from the forests in the European Union (EU), while considering multiple environmental, technical and social constraints.The potential woody biomass supply was estimated for the period 2010-2030 for stemwood, residues (branches and harvest losses), stumps and other biomass (woody biomass from early thinnings in young forests). We estimated the theoretical biomass potential from recent, detailed forest inventory data using the EFISCEN model. Constraints reducing the availability of woody biomass were defined and quantified for three mobilisation scenarios (high, medium, low). Finally, the theoretical potentials from EFISCEN were combined with the constraints to assess the realisable potential from EU forests.The realisable potential from stemwood, residues, stumps and other biomass was estimated at 744 million m³ yr⁻¹ overbark in 2010 and could range from 623 to 895 million m³ yr⁻¹ overbark in 2030, depending on the mobilisation scenario. These potentials represented 50-71% of the theoretical potential. Constraints thus significantly reduced the biomass potentials that could be mobilised. Soil productivity appeared to be an important environmental factor when considering the increased use of biomass from forests. Also the attitude of private forest owners towards increased use of forest biomass can have an important effect, although quantifying this is still rather difficult.The analysis showed that it is possible to increase the availability of forest biomass significantly beyond the current level of resource utilisation. Implementing these ambitious scenarios would imply quite drastic changes in forest resource management across Europe.     

Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

中蒙俄经济走廊视域下的木质林产品贸易分析

文中从贸易规模和贸易结构2个方面概述了中国与俄罗斯以及中国与蒙古间的木质林产品贸易现状,运用产业内贸易指数分别从进口和出口2个方面对2006—2015年中俄和中蒙主要木质林产品贸易情况进行分析。结果发现,中国与俄罗斯及蒙古之间木质林产品贸易规模和产业内贸易水平正在逐年增长,但产业内贸易水平仍总体偏低,贸易方式仍以产业间贸易为主。中俄和中蒙在木质林产品贸易上具有很强的互补性,应以中蒙俄经济走廊的发展为契机,加强林业经贸合作,实现区域互利共赢。