Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet

Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (approximately 10(13) watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.     

Energy options and strategies for Western europe

Western Europe, now largely dependent on oil imports, has to prepare for strong competition for oil and energy imports in general before the year 2000. The more unlikely it is for Western Europe to secure from outside rich supplies of coal or uranium at readily acceptable economic and political conditions, the more serious this competition becomes. Even exceptionally low projections of economic growth and optimistic assumptions about energy conservation urgently call for vigorous and simultaneous development of indigenous coal and nuclear sources, including the breeder. Long-term contracts for the possession and deployment of foreign oil, gas, and coal deposits are mandatory and should be negotiated in view of the possible aggravation of north-south confrontation.     

Energy needs versus environmental pollution: a reconciliation?

In this article I have presented, for discussion, a proposed system for energy generation by which the principal sources of environmental pollution by power plants could be eliminated. For stationary power plants the concept appears feasible technically and, according to my " horseback estimates," perhaps economically as well, depending upon the economic value of the by-products of sulfur, CO(2), water, and possibly nitrogen, and upon the price we are willing to pay for a clean environment .Thus, a more thorough engineering and economic analysis to explore these and other factors in greater depth seems warranted. In the case of turbine-driven vehicles, the technical and economic feasibility of widespread distribution and handling of the fuel constitutes a serious question, but one which deserves equally serious consideration before the possibility is discounted. The reports of the cited study panels notwithstanding, the technology required for the proposed system exists today, with one exception. This exception (which is not essential for trial of the system but will be required for its complete fruition) is the development of a nuclear reactor for the prime purpose of delivering process heat for the steam reforming of natural gas and, ultimately, for gas production from coal in a continuous process, such as those discussed by Pieroni et al. (16). Today's intermittent processes of coking and gas production are both archaic and themselves large sources of atmospheric pollution, and a development program aimed at advancing the technology of the coal industry in this regard would seem long overdue. The report of the PSAC Environmental Pollution Panel recommended "demonstration of the feasibility and economy of new developments for abating or controlling pollution through their use at Federal installations" and suggested the coalburning TVA power plants as a likely place for such demonstration. This suggestion is doubly appropriate since the TVA is in a region of subnormal " atmospheric ventilation" (8). By design these plants are adjacent to the AEC's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and such a location would seem ideal for an experiment on the wedding of nuclear and fossil sources of energy. In comments on a preliminary draft of this article, proponents of "conventional " nuclear power pointed out that such power is hard to beat on the basis of cost, and that dissipation of heat to the air by way of cooling towers can also be accomplished in conventional plants (17). These observations are individually correct but not compatible: the low power costs cited are for very large plants [of the order of 1000 mega-watts lectrical) and larger], and the costs of cooling towers and associated equipment needed to dissipate such large amounts of heat [of the order of 2000 megawatts (thermal)] to air from a closed cycle would offset the power cost advantage of the large plant. In regard to the proposed use of nuclear process heat, Weinberg (20) has expressed doubt that much advantage can be derived from this approach because the temperatures involved are too high for low-cost reactors, and heat transfer from surfaces could involve materials problems. In the case of gas production, this is indeed an anticipated problem-not a technologically insuperable one, but a problem of reducing the cost of the materials required (16). Indeed, Weinberg himself has mentioned this possible use of nuclear heat in a recent publication discussing the steam reforming of coal to liquid fuel(21). Also, an improved process for synthesizing methane from lignitec has recently been reported (22). Since the earlier studies date back a decade, a new look at the problems and costs involved relative to the benefits to be derived (not the least of which could be new vigor for the coal industry) would seem to be in order. In the case of steam reforming of natural gas, the temperature level (about 1500 degrees F) is such that the technology is available today, and a process-heat-reactor design study could be initiated without awaiting further developments.     

Hydrogen: Its Future Role in the Nation's Energy Economy

In examining the potential role of hydrogen in the energy economy of the future, we take an optimistic view. All the technology required for implementation is feasible but a great deal of development and refinement is necessary. A pessimistic approach would obviously discourage further thinking about an important and perhaps the most reasonable alternative for the future. We have considered a limited number of alternative energy systems involving hydrogen and have shown that hydrogen could be a viable secondary source of energy derived from nuclear power; for the immediate future, hydrogen could be derived from coal. A hydrogen supply system could have greater flexibility and be competitive with a more conventional all-electric delivery system. Technological improvements could make hydrogen as an energy source an economic reality. The systems examined in this article show how hydrogen can serve as a general-purpose fuel for residential and automotive applications. Aside from being a source of heat and motive power, hydrogen could also supply the electrical needs of the household via fuel cells (19), turbines, or conventional "total energy systems." The total cost of energy to a residence supplied with hydrogen fuel depends on the ratio of the requirements for direct fuel use to the requirements for electrical use. A greater direct use of hydrogen as a fuel without conversion to electricity reduces the overall cost of energy supplied to the household because of the greater expense of electrical transmission and distribution. Hydrogen fuel is especially attractive for use in domestic residential applications where the bulk of the energy requirement is for thermal energy. Although a considerable amount of research is required before any hydrogen energy delivery system can be implemented, the necessary developments are within the capability of present-day technology and the system could be made attractive economically .Techniques for producing hydrogen from water by electrolysis, from coal, and directly from thermal energy could be found that are less expensive than those now available; inexpensive fuel cells could be developed, and high-temperature turbines could be used for the efficient conversion of hydrogen (and oxygen) to electricity. The use of hydrogen as an automotive fuel would be a key factor in the development of a hydrogen energy economy, and safe storage techniques for carrying sufficient quantities of hydrogen in automotive systems can certainly be developed. The use of hydrogen in automobiles would significantly reduce urban pollution because the dispersed fossil fuel emissions would be replaced by radioactive wastes generated at large central stations. The conversion of internal or external combustion engines for combustion of hydrogen fuel would probably have less economic impact on the automotive industry than the mass introduction of electric automobiles. However, this is a subject that requires more detailed study. All of the safety aspects of hydrogen utilization will have to be examined, especially the problems of safety in the domestic use and the long distance transport of hydrogen in pipelines at high pressures. It is our opinion that the various energy planning agencies should now begin to outline the mode of implementing hydrogen energy delivery systems in the energy economy. The initial transition to hydrogen energy derived from available fossil fuels such as coal should be considered together with the long range view of all the hydrogen being derived eventually from nuclear energy. By the year 1985 when petroleum imports may be in excess of the domestic supply, these plans could set the stage for the transition period from fossil to a predominantly nuclear energy economy able to supply abundant synthetic fuels such as hydrogen. Synthetic fuels will obviously be more expensive than fuels now derived from petroleum; however, there may be no other viable choice. Thus, it is essential that the analysis and technological feasibility of a hydrogen energy system be considered now. It is of vital importance to the nation to develop some general-purpose fuel that can be Produced from a variety of domestic energy sources and reduce our dependence on imported oil.     

Electricity generation choices for the near term

Electricity demand is expected to increase during the next few decades, especially if it is accepted that the primary goal of energy conservation is to reduce oil consumption. Although the renewable resources in principle have unlimited potential, it is not clear that they can make a major contribution to electricity expansion within the 20th century. Coal and nuclear power are the practical alternatives. The adverse effects of nuclear power probably remain less than those of coal, despite the impact of the Three Mile Island accident. It is important to explore and exploit all options, especially the endangered nuclear option.     

远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术研究进展

远洋渔船是远洋渔业船载加工和贮运的主要载体。由于远洋渔业渔获物来源集中、容易腐败、捕获后需要尽快加工,而且加工、贮运场所空间有限的特点,远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术已成为影响远洋渔业产业的"瓶颈"之一。通过广泛查阅国内外相关资料,综述了远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术的发展历程及现状,比较了国内外远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术的优势和不足,分析并预测了我国远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术的发展趋势,得出我国远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术将朝着装备标准化、技术先进化和功能综合化的方向发展。通过突破核心部件和关键技术,为发展节能环保、智能高效、综合利用的远洋渔业船载加工装备与技术提供保证,推动我国远洋渔业发展。     

京津冀地区生态基础设施?生境质量?产业发展耦合协调性分析与预测

  目的  对生态环境与产业发展耦合协调关系进行研究,有助于规划者从生态学角度宏观把握京津冀协同发展趋势,为规划与管理提供科学依据。  方法  该研究基于MSPA和InVEST模型分析了京津冀地区2000—2017年生态基础设施、生境质量和产业发展变化特征,并采用耦合协调模型对该地区三者的耦合协调性进行综合分析,最后利用灰色预测模型预测京津冀不同区域未来五年耦合协调度。  结果  （1）京津冀地区生态基础设施水平整体偏低,连通性较差;生境质量空间差异显著,整体生境质量0.450,水平不高;（2）西北部生态涵养区的农林牧渔业发展稳定,津冀工业长期处于主导地位,东部滨海发展区交通运输、仓储和邮政业和京津金融业发展实力较强;（3）京津冀地区耦合协调度主要处于轻度失调到初级协调状态之间,空间差异明显。其中,南部功能拓展区耦合协调度最高,而西北部生态涵养区耦合协调度最低。（4）未来5年京津冀地区耦合协调度均将有所提升,但中部核心功能区仍将处于濒临失调状态,北京和东部滨海发展区仍将处于勉强协调状态,是未来需要优化的重点区域;天津耦合协调度将由勉强协调转变为初级协调,西北部生态涵养区耦合协调度将由濒临失调转变为初级协调,是具有协调发展潜力的区域;南部功能拓展区耦合协调类型将转变为中级协调,是发展速度最快的区域。  结论  该研究通过评估京津冀区域生态基础设施?生境质量?产业发展的耦合协调性,并分析预测具有协同发展潜力的重点区域,为未来京津冀协同发展提供依据,并为其他城市群范围内生态建设和产业发展评估提供重要参考。      

Energy conservation

We can no longer afford to ignore the serious potential consequences of our lavish use of energy. Continuation of the present rate of increase, particularly with the trend to imported fuels, will lead in short order to a level of dependency on imports which is disturbing for both the national security and the balance of payments. The inevitable rise in the price of energy will presumably lead to some increases in the domestic energy supply. But our reserves, particularly in the preferred forms of petroleum, gas, and even low-sulfur coal, are finite. Thus, the energy problem must also be attacked from the standpoint of energy conservation. The forthcoming rise in fuel prices will, of course, make more attractive some forms of conservation which at present are economically marginal. Nevertheless, consumers, industry, and government will have to make difficult choices in the years ahead: between greater convenience and lower energy bills, between the high capital costs of energy conservation measures and the long-term dollar savings from increased energy efficiency, and between environmental protection and the availability of needed energy supplies. Existing capabilities and technology, on which short- and midterm improvements must be based, appear to offer substantial possibilities for reducing U.S. energy consumption within the next decade (11). Long-term solutions to the energy problem, however, will depend to a considerable extent on the continuing appearance of new technological capabilities for increased efficiency of energy utilization and increased integration of energy applications. The capacity for continuing technological advances is, of course, dependent in turn on a strong relevant scientific base. A word of caution is necessary. Recent experience has shown that technological advances alone will not solve the problem. The problem spans not only the traditional physical and engineering sciences but also those sciences which deal with human attitudes and actions, that is, the social sciences, and includes a more fundamental understanding of underlying economic principles. The challenge to all sectors of American science should be clear.     

Clean fuels from coal gasification

The quickest way to establish a visible new margin against energy demand is the historic producer serving small industry and gasifying Pennsylvania anthracite. In 2 years many producers could be in operation. The quickest way to obtain significant supplies of "new" gas or oil is to retrofit existing electricity and industrial boilers for power or industrial gas. Important results could be achieved in 6 years. Table 3 identifies development activities deserving high priority to speed the capture of gas and oil now burned in boilers, and to speed realization the advantages of combined-cycle equipment running on coal (8). Obviously, these activities are not enough. Many exciting and worthwhile concepts at various stages of development can furnish improved techniques for converting coal to pipeline gas and liquid fuels for the long run. Reviews of these concepts are available (6, 32, 35). I have neglected them in this article not to deny their importance but to stress the earlier opportunities from technology that is ready now, or nearly ready. The oil and gas industries might well consider the historical progression from Wells Fargo to Western Union to American Telephone and Telegraph to Radio Corporation of America. These industries will miss the boat if they regard themselves simply as purveyors of their historical fuels and not as purveyors of clean energy. The gas industry especially will be in trouble if it lets its major industrial customers, such as steel and electricity, provide their own supplies of power and industrial gas.     

农村生物质能源利用现状及发展对策——以湖北当阳为例

近年来,生物质作为清洁的可再生能源,日益受到全社会重视。以湖北省当阳市为例,对农村生物质的能源利用进行了调查分析,重点探讨该地的生物质直燃发电项目,以期为我国广大农村合理、高效利用生物质能提供经验与借鉴。研究发现生物质发电面临原料供应不足和环境污染问题,而当地生物质资源的综合利用也存在一定不足。基于此,提出了应优化电厂原料供应、促进生物质资源梯级开发、引进先进技术等建议。     

论保护性耕作技术的基本原理与发展趋势

 本文综合分析国内外保护性耕作技术发展趋势和特点，提出保护性耕作技术概念是泛指为了减少农田土壤侵蚀，保护农田生态环境而采取的综合性技术体系，其核心技术是土壤少耕免耕技术、农田地表微地形改造技术及地表覆盖技术，其技术原理是达到农田“少动土”、“少裸露”“少污染”以及“适度湿润”和“适度粗糙”的耕层土壤状态，保持可持续的土地生产力。在此基础上提出了基于中国国情的保护性耕作技术研究方向以及不同区域需要解决的关键技术，建立具有中国特色的保护性耕作技术体系。     

黄土高原半干旱区集雨补灌生态农业研究进展

 黄土高原半干旱地区在中国旱作农业生产中占有重要地位。干旱缺水与水土流失并存是制约该区域经济发展的两大瓶颈因素。水保农业和径流农业两种旱作农业生产方式已趋于成熟,但对天然降水调控利用能力低下,难于实现农业生产的优质高产高效。集雨补灌生态农业是在继承水保农业和径流农业成功技术基础上,对降雨调控利用方式的进一步发展,它能在时间和空间两个方面实现降雨径流的富集叠加,能充分发挥环境资源与水肥光热因子的协同增效作用,大幅度提高农业生产力,实现同步缓解干旱缺水与水土流失双重目标。集雨补灌是黄土高原半干旱区农业可持续发展的一种综合模式和战略性措施,对黄土高原半干旱区生态型现代农业发展具有重要推动作用。     

Liquid fuels from coal: from R & d to an industry

On the basis of current U.S. oil imports, room now exists for a U.S. coal liquids industry. Unfortunately, technology is not available which can produce coal liquids at a price competitive with imported oil. Direct liquefaction technology is under development, but the prospects are that the technology will not be economic at the time the pioneer commercial plant should be constructed to provide the foundation for a possible coal liquids industry in the 1990's. Government support of coal liquefaction R & D has created the conditions that make possible the development of the technology, and probably government incentives for pioneer plants will be needed. With the proper incentives pioneer plants will lead to lower costs, and this, plus rising prices, will create the conditions necessary to develop a multiplant industry.     

丘陵山区生态农业模式与技术初探

丘陵山区属经济发展落后、生态环境脆弱的地区,也是中国生态农业建设内容丰富的地区。笔者结合近年来在丘陵山区生态农业建设实践中取得的成绩,总结了适宜这一地区推广和应用的生态农业模式与技术。提出丘陵山区生态农业推广必须多样化、应用必须实践化、研究必须科学化。推广高效生态农业实用和配套技术、推进生态农业模式与技术的产业化、优化生态农业结构、强化科技培训力度和农村能源结构调整是丘陵山区生态农业建设的重点。     

荒漠化地区农村能源利用现状及建议

合理解决荒漠化地区的农村能源利用与生态和环境的矛盾,实现多元化能源的合理利用,对于促进中国的社会主义新农村建设,实施可持续发展战略有着重要的意义。详细介绍内蒙古阿拉善左旗铁木日乌德嘎查的现状及能源利用基本情况,从社会经济、技术、生产结构、人文和自然地理等角度对能源利用情况进行了多方面的分析,找出了决定该嘎查采用当前的能源利用方式和结构的原因及影响因素。当前这种以玉米芯、秸秆、煤、电、柴油、汽油为主,液化石油气和太阳能为辅的生产已及生活用能结构不仅使当地居民饱受经济和健康的双重压力,同时也对当地荒漠化的进程起到了一定程度的推波助澜的作用。针对上述问题,分别从传统能源和新能源以及非政府组织的作用等方面给出了几点建议。     

Status of the Development of EDS Coal Liquefaction

This article traces the evolution and development of a modern coal liquefaction technology, the EDS (Exxon Donor Solvent) process, over a period of 15 years. During this time the technology has been advanced from laboratory experiments to a pilot plant with a coal feed rate of 250 tons per day, and findings from several areas of science and technology have been important. The process is now in the final stage of development to generate the data needed to design a plant of commercial size.     

黑龙江省碳排放核算方法及减排对策研究

结合IPCC推荐的参考方法和部门方法,对基于能源平衡表的黑龙江省二氧化碳排放核算方法进行研究。研究结果表明:从总量来看,2000~2010年黑龙江省碳排放总量大体呈现上升趋势;从细分部门来看,碳排放总量最大的是火电部门,其次是工业部门;从细分能源来看,以原煤消费为主的能源需求是导致碳排放总量居高不下的原因。最后提出短期内黑龙江省节能减排应从提高能源效率、重点开展火电部门及工业重点行业的节能减排入手。     

宁夏现代节水农业发展现状及对策

结合宁夏农业发展实际,有针对性地分析了发展现代节水农业对积极应对干旱挑战、发展现代农业、实现区域经济社会协调发展的重大意义。总结了近几年宁夏为解决干旱缺水问题,重点推广的节水控灌、设施高效节灌、覆膜保墒节水、压砂节水、集雨补灌节水和保护性耕作节水等六大节水技术模式,抗旱节水和增产增收效果明显,产生了很好的经济、社会和生态效益。在总结发展经验的基础上,明确提出了今后宁夏现代节水农业发展的思路及目标：以建设“三大农业示范区”为契机,在加大农田水利建设的同时,积极引进推广各类先进实用的现代节水农业技术,实现水资源高效利用;建立起推动产业结构调整扣促进农业增效、农民增收的长效机制,带动宁夏现代节水农业全面发展,农作物单产提高15％-30％,自然降水利用率提高10％-15％,水分生产效率由0．30-0．45提高到0．45以上,补水效益达到10-15元／m^3。     

胡桃楸人工林的营造技术

近年来,我省林业工作者探索出一些人工营造胡桃楸林的技术,为林区经济、社会发展 和生态资源保护提供了重要依据。本文在总结和分析胡桃楸人工林造林经验的基础上,提出了 采种、整地、幼林抚育和病虫害防治等胡桃楸人工林营造工作的关键技术要点。     

Sweden beyond oil: nuclear commitments and solar options

The project "Energy and Society," sponsored by the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies, has studied different indigenous energy sources as alternatives to imported oil in Sweden. One alternative is nuclear energy, antoer is renewable energy. Large uncertainties are associated with both alternatives today. The main characteristics of an energy policy for the rest of the century that does not foreclose either of these options have been identified. Such a policy will have to be based on an understanding of similarities and differences between the alternatives. A nuclear and a solar energy system have been outlined as a basis for an analysis of technical, economic, and institutional issues.